2023 AFC: The Case for Playoff Contraction
The 2023 AFC season was an epic story entirely ruined by a playoff format featuring too many teams.
Hello everybody! Welcome back to my Sports Passion Project, where this week I’ve decided to take on a (pun intended) passion project.
For the last two weeks or so over on Substack Notes,
, and , and myself have been on a crusade to extoll the virtues of the smaller playoff formats of years’ past. All three of us are of the belief that smaller playoff tournaments are better for the game, and I’m going to explain why. For fear of plagiarism, I will use my own explanation here, but check out Grant and Marc’s Notes as well.As far as my explanation, the reasons are fourfold. Here are all four, listed in no particular order:
Fans like predictability. At first this seems counterintuitive, because unpredictability is fun, but it’s not really the predictability that’s the draw. It’s the ability to advertise that’s the draw. The ability to look forward to the big matchup. Imagine if the AFC Championship game could be advertised for months in advance, like a big boxing fight or pro wrestling match. You think people wouldn’t be hyped by the time it finally came? This is the advantage the World Series used to have, before baseball killed that golden goose. Sports these days really struggle to advertise and get the idea of the big game out there, and the reason for that is their playoffs are too big. That’s number one.
Playoffs tend to rob us of the opportunity to see the best teams play each other. This is a football article, so I’ll stick to football examples. The best is 2019, where the 2019 AFC was the strongest conference of the last ten years, yet the KC Chiefs managed to make the Super Bowl out of it without beating any of the good teams, because the Tennessee Titans did all their dirty work for them. This is not a one-time issue. It’s been since 2016 that we’ve got the best team in each conference facing off in the Super Bowl. That’s bad for the game.
Big playoffs ruin the regular season. Think about it. Were there any important regular season games played last year? Maybe a few (Houston vs Indy, Miami vs Buffalo, and every game GB played), but not very many. Playoffs with too many slots (like we have now) strip all immediacy away from the regular season, and push it all into January. In today’s world of short attention spans, the NFL really ought to think about putting some immediacy back into its regular season.
Non-existent storylines. Imagine the regular season storylines we could follow if the playoffs were more difficult to get into. Think of the Buffalo Bills from last year. Even with their mid-season losing streak, they only ever fell one game out of the playoffs, behind the easily catchable Indianapolis Colts and Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals. They were in no danger of missing. What if they’d fallen several games behind the playoff line, and had to give it everything they had to get back in? We could’ve followed that story for months, but instead Buffalo was back into the playoffs within weeks. This is but one of the awesome storylines we were robbed of by the big playoff.
As part of our conversations about this topic,
came up with the idea of going through the years and looking at some alternate history scenarios. Did you know that with a smaller playoff, we would’ve gotten to see Aaron Rodgers vs Drew Brees in a playoff game? 2019 with a smaller tournament means we would’ve got to see Patrick Mahomes take on the best version of the Baltimore Ravens, in one of the biggest ‘unstoppable force vs immovable object’ moments in NFL history.There are countless fantastic alternate playoff scenarios that were robbed from us by a needlessly big playoff tournament. You can go back and look through some on your own. However, those who read this publication know that I don’t really do playoffs. I’m partial to season-long storylines. They connect with me more, both as a writer and a fan, than the jagged one week playoff non-stories that we’re stuck with these days, which means I will admit to being biased in favour of any change that will boost the importance of the regular season.
Contracted playoffs do that in spades, and I’m going to prove it to you, by telling you the story of how the 2023 AFC could’ve been epic, and how the big playoff tournament robbed us of one of the best conference playoff battles in NFL history.
I’m going to do this via the use of an alternate history scenario. I will be analysing the 2023 AFC, with the alteration being that (for one reason or another) the NFL never expanded its playoff format in 1978, or at any point afterwards, beyond the eight team team format inherited from the NFL-AFL merger, leaving us with the playoff format used from 1970-1977 all the way in 2023, with just one alteration.
My one proposed alteration is that in real life, the four playoff teams used to be comprised of the three division winners and a single wild card team per conference. The NFL now has four divisions per conference, which is not reconcilable with a four team playoff format. Therefore, for the purpose of this exercise in alternate history, I’m going to pretend that the NFL has no divisions. The best four teams in each conference will go to the playoffs, without divisional affiliation.
One final warning. This is an exercise in alternate history. Not real history. It’s fake. It’s fiction. Events did not happen the way I’m describing them. I will be saying things that are false in real life, but true in our alternate world. I will be sticking to the real events for my analysis, but the stakes behind all decisions made by all decision makers are entirely different (and sometimes misaligned) with the stakes they faced in real life. If there ever comes a point where I must make something up to rationalize events or decisions that make no sense under the four team playoff format that I am purporting that the teams are playing under, I will denote it with a (/|\) symbol.
Now that we’re all clear what it is I’m doing here, let’s get into the story.
Things are looking bleak for the AFC.
This conference is stuck in the midst of one of the most dominant runs in the history of the sport, with the Kansas City Chiefs having won four (/|\ In our alternate history, the 2021 AFC playoffs did not feature the Cincinnati Bengals) AFC championships in a row from 2019-2022, and two Super Bowls (2019 and 2022). Over this same time period, the NFC has had four different champions, but the AFC has been kept under lock and key for years, ruled by a three headed monster, although the head dressed in red is significantly larger and more dangerous than the other two.
To say these Chiefs are a juggernaut is an understatement, as nobody has ever appeared in the Super Bowl four times in a row before. Losing Kareem Hunt did not stop the Chiefs. Losing Tyreek Hill did not stop the Chiefs. Porous defence has never been able to stop the Chiefs, and coming into the 2023 NFL season, it even looks as if they’ve made improvements on the defensive side of the ball. Nobody is willing to bet against them winning the AFC championship again.
The only team who may be able to compete with Kansas City is the Buffalo Bills, who along with the Chiefs have monopolised two of the AFC’s four playoff spots since 2019. Much like KC, coming into 2023 the Bills have also undergone some fairly significant downgrades on offence, although nobody thinks this is going to matter, as with Josh Allen, anything will work as an offence.
The Bills’ defence however has gone from great to just okay. They will allow -0.045 EPA/Play this year, which is good, but when you’re at the level of the Bills, good is not good enough. Perhaps this will be a weakness that teams can exploit.
The last head on this three headed monster is the Baltimore Ravens, who are one Lamar Jackson injury in 2021 away from having made the playoffs each of the last four years themselves. This team has not been on the level of Kansas City or Buffalo since being one of the best NFL teams ever in 2019, but they’ve been significantly above everybody else. They’ve existed in a kind of limbo. Not good enough to compete with the big boys, but too good to ever miss the playoffs, even in a four team AFC format.
In truth, everybody believes that they know half of the AFC’s playoff participants before the season even starts (KC and Buffalo), and probably a third (Baltimore). These teams’ reign over the conference has been overbearing for years. In this four season stretch from 2019-2022, there have been just two playoff wins by teams not named the Chiefs or the Bills. The Baltimore Ravens defeated a baby version of the Bills in 2019, and Buffalo also took a shocking upset to the Cincinnati Bengals (who had not made the playoffs in almost ten years) in their first round game in 2022. Kansas City has not taken an AFC playoff loss at all since losing to New England in the 2018 AFC Championship game.
As we enter the 2023 NFL season, that makes five years since the KC Chiefs have taken a loss in the AFC playoffs. This overwhelming dominance, in conjunction with a lot of the other playoff spots being hogged by the Bills and Ravens, has left just five playoff spots over the last four years for the whole rest of the conference.
Of these five playoff positions, the New England Patriots made the playoffs twice (2019, 2021), leaving the Pittsburgh Steelers (2020), Tennessee Titans (2021), and Cincinnati Bengals (2022) to all pick up one playoff spot each, and that’s it. All of the other nine teams in this conference are working on pretty hefty playoff droughts.
There are long playoff droughts that have no reasonable chance of ending this season. The Las Vegas Raiders haven’t made the playoffs since 2016. The Los Angeles Chargers made the playoffs as recently as 2018, but are themselves stuck in a horrible limbo, with the perpetually overrated Justin Herbert continuing to hold the team back. Their drought will not end this season either. Same goes for the Denver Broncos, who now wield a drought going back to 2015. The Indianapolis Colts are also in the same boat. They have still not been able to recover from Andrew Luck being one of the bigger flops in recent memory. Andrew was not a bad player, but was able to make the playoffs just twice in his entire NFL career, the most recent being in 2014. The Colts’ drought will also not be ending this season.
That is the last you will hear of any of those four teams, which leaves five AFC teams with real hope that they can end long-running playoff droughts in 2023. I will list them in order of shortest playoff drought to longest.
The Houston Texans are the team that’s gone through the least suffering in this group of five, having made the playoffs as recently as 2018. However, since then, drama involving starting QB Deshaun Watson (plus horrendous defensive units) has left the Texans as bottom feeders for each of the last two years, bad enough to get the second overall pick in the 2023 Draft, which they used to select a new starting QB, CJ Stroud.
Normally, I would not put a team with a rookie QB and serious defensive issues into my ‘realistic hope’ category, but with the benefit of hindsight, I know that the Houston Texans have both Nico Collins and Tank Dell, who are both going to have breakout seasons in 2023 in carrying that rookie QB to acceptable statistics. In addition, the days of horrendous defence are over, as the Texans will allow negative EPA/Play this year. They are a long shot, but watch out for Houston.
Next on the list is the first team that really believe they have a chance to end their drought, the Jacksonville Jaguars, who last made the playoffs as recently as 2017, on the back of what I believe to be the best defence in NFL history. However, Sacksonville died as quickly as it was born, and that magical 2017 AFC Championship appearance became a blip that obfuscates the fact that the Jaguars have made the playoffs once since 2007. It’s been that bad. Not quite Cleveland or New York Jets bad, but really really bad.
However, being the worst team in the league in both 2020 and 2021 has its benefits. It’s allowed the Jaguars to find QB Trevor Lawrence, who so far has been good, and broke out in the second half of a 2022 season that saw the Jaguars finish with a winning record for the first time in years. Jacksonville fans expect great things out of him going forward. This comes in addition to a good defensive unit, who allowed -0.02 EPA/Play last year, and is looking to be even better this year. Picking between these five teams, this is as good a bet to make the playoffs as any.
Now we get into the real misery.
We have to go back almost 15 years into the past to find the New York Jets’ last playoff appearance, all the way back in 2010. That playoff appearance was magical, knocking off the 14-2 New England Patriots in the first round game, but you can only live on the memories for so long. The Jets haven’t even been a team that I would describe as ‘good’ since 2015, and in the NFL, good is rarely good enough to make the playoffs.
Being one of the worst teams in the NFL for such a prolonged stretch does have its benefits, as it’s allowed the Jets to turn their defence that in 2020 was one of the worst units in NFL history into a very good one in 2022, and it’s looking like more of the same this year, but that’s all small apples compared to the Draft day trade for Aaron Rodgers.
Jets fans know it. If they can just have an offence that generates positive EPA, they will win games, and they will make the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. More on this later.
The second most miserable AFC team has been the Miami Dolphins. To find their last playoff appearance, we have to take a depressingly long walk all the way back to Jay Fiedler’s Year in 2001. Do you know how much has changed in the NFL since 2001? Tom Brady was not the Patriots’ opening day starter yet in 2001. That’s how long ago this was.
The frustrating thing is that Miami has not been a bad team over the last 20 years. They’ve certainly been better than teams like the Jaguars or Jets. They just keep coming up one win short. One win short of a playoff spot last year in 2022. One win short in 2020. One win short in 2002, and a playoff miss on a tiebreaker in 2008. Over the 21 seasons since 2001, the Miami Dolphins have finished with a winning record eight times, plus two 8-8 seasons. This has not been a bad team at all, but it’s frustrating to so consistently get close, but never actually be able to make it.
This is going to change this year, as the Dolphins are looking loaded and ready to go, with one of the NFL’s best QBs in Tua Tagovailoa (who finished second in the NFL in EPA/Play in 2022, behind only Patrick Mahomes), and one of the NFL’s best WRs in Tyreek Hill on the outside for him to throw the ball to. Like many teams I’ve discussed so far, the defence will be a problem, but with an offence like this, who cares about that?
Finally, for our final chance to break a long playoff drought, we get to the most miserable team of all. The team who has not made the playoffs since 1994, and not at all since they came back into existence in 1999.
The Cleveland Browns.
1994 is a long time to wait. I personally wouldn’t fault any Cleveland fan for just giving up and jumping into Lake Erie rather than watching this team anymore. Over the almost 30 years since 1994, the Cleveland Browns have finished with a winning record only three times, and because LOL Cleveland, they decided to have a 10-6 season in a 2007 AFC that was so stacked that even 10-6 was nowhere near playoff quality.
Isn’t that just typical?
Their 9-7 season left them one win short of the 2002 playoffs, and 2020 may just be the most diabolical of them all. As of week 15, the Browns were 10-4, and a sure bet to end this never-ending playoff drought, and then in week 16, they lost to the horrible, terrible, no good, very bad, 2-14 2020 New York Jets, and fell into a tiebreak for the final AFC playoff spot, which they lost.
There are moments in sports that fans never get over, and this is one of them. The Cleveland fans never forgave Baker Mayfield for generating negative EPA/Play in this game (/|\), and it’s a big reason the former number one overall pick was not brought back upon the expiration of his rookie contract. They have not forgiven coach Kevin Stefanski either, but are forced to tenuously accept his continued presence.
The hope for the Cleveland this year also rides on the arm of a trade acquisition, QB Deshaun Watson. He looked horrendous last year, and singlehandedly ruined what was a great offence, but the team still has Nick Chubb. They still have Amari Cooper, and all of the cogs that made last season’s offence (without Deshaun) work so well. It’s easy to overlook 2022 as rust or a one-off, and because of that there is serious hope in Cleveland.
There you have it. It will be an multi-way race for the AFC’s four playoff positions, between Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo (the favourites), and Houston, New York, Miami, Cleveland, and Jacksonville (the long shots), plus anybody else who would like to throw their hat in the ring.
Let’s get into week one.
Immediately, on one of the first snaps of the season, as the Bills play the Jets, we lose one of our contenders. The New York Jets’ hopes are dashed once again, as Aaron Rodgers goes down with a torn Achilles Tendon. Due to a preponderance of luck (four takeaways plus a punt return touchdown) the Jets are able to give the Bills a loss, but everybody knows it’s over for them. No win is ever meaningless, but if any win has ever felt shallower than this Jets victory, I’d love to hear an example.
While this game is meaningless to the Jets, this loss will come back to haunt the Buffalo Bills, and another one of our seemingly automatic playoff bids, the Kansas City Chiefs, also take a loss against the Detroit Lions. These are important results that get some of our underdogs off on the right foot. These week one losses mean the two juggernauts are starting off one week behind each of the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Browns, who all start the season with statement victories in week one.
However, there is one matchup between contenders that I’d like to talk about.
The Houston Texans will not be starting the season with a statement victory, as they get paired with a murderous Baltimore Ravens team for their week one matchup, and it’s not even close. The Ravens do spend a lot of this game playing with their food, but Houston does not get within one score of the Ravens at any point in the second half.
It’s games like this that show the clear divide between the contenders and the pretenders. Right now, the poor Texans are not qualified to face this level of opposition. Will they be by the end of the season? We’ll see.
Week one was interesting, but only so much can be proven with one week’s worth of football. Let’s skip to the end of week four to get a true feel for how these teams are playing.
After week four’s games, the contenders have definitively been able to separate themselves from the pretenders.
After both taking galling losses in week one, the Chiefs have won each of their last three games, by a combined score of 81-39. Buffalo has been even more dominant, winning by 28, 34, and 28 again over the last three weeks. Baltimore has been decidedly less dominant, taking a brutal loss to the Indianapolis Colts, but are also sporting the same 3-1 record. The fourth playoff team currently (Miami) also has a 3-1 record, but a 48-20 loss to Buffalo means that nobody is ready to put them into the contender category just yet.
The Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Cleveland Browns are all 2-2, but these 2-2 records are not the same. The Texans did take the ugly loss to start the season against Baltimore, but after four weeks are sporting incredible 20+ point wins over both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers. With everybody waiting for Miami to fall (again), it’s looking like Houston may be the favourites to take their spot right now.
Cleveland’s season looks like it’s over.
They have lost Nick Chubb to torn knee ligaments, and weren’t that great of an offence to begin with. They’ve scored just 30 points combined in the two games since. A revelation has come in the form of their defence though. The Cleveland Browns have not had a defence better than league average since 2014, but they’ve got one now. It’s an understatement to say this 2023 Cleveland defence has come from nowhere. Maybe just maybe they can carry this offence to a good season. More on them later.
The least impressive of this 2-2 bunch is the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have lost to every real opponent they’ve played. Winning by only ten points against Anthony Richardson and the Indianapolis Colts does not impress me, nor does blowing out poor Atlanta. However, losing two games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans by a combined total of 28 points sure does leave an impression. This Jacksonville team is looking mightily disappointing.
Which brings me to week five, where it’s already getting close to do-or-die for Jacksonville. Their opponent is the Buffalo Bills, and failing to win this game would drop the Jags to 2-3, two games behind Buffalo, and likely some other 4-1 teams as well. Even in a four team playoff format, it’s rare to see a must-win game in week five, but the Jaguars have picked really poor teams to take early season losses against. They’re going to lose head to head tiebreakers against everybody. With head to head losses against KC and Houston and Buffalo, Jacksonville could kiss their playoff chances goodbye should they lose today. That cannot happen.
This is listed as a road game for Jacksonville, but thankfully, it’s not a real road game. It’s in London, which no matter how hard pundits try to convince you, is not a home field advantage for Jacksonville, but it’s better than playing in Buffalo. Nevertheless, Buffalo are still touchdown favourites, but the Jaguars must know that their season is on the line, because they come out of the locker room swinging.
Before the first quarter is over, the score is 11-0 Jacksonville, and while there is no more scoring for the rest of the half, the always stout Jaguar defence is able to keep Josh Allen bottled up as well, and the score at the half is 11-7. The score at the beginning of the fourth quarter is still 11-7, and this is getting to be nervous time for Jacksonville.
Do you really want to play this game of chicken with Josh Allen on the other side?
Evidently, they do not, as the Jaguar offence finally is able to quit with the chicken game, score two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and keep their season alive, moving them ahead of Buffalo in the standings with a 3-2 record plus a head to head win, and that is not the only team they draw even with.
The Baltimore Ravens also take a freak loss on the road in Pittsburgh to drop to 3-2. Cleveland is on an early bye. Houston loses again to fall to 2-3. Ironically, the Jaguars defeating Buffalo to drag the playoff line down to 3-2 really saved the Texans’ bacon here. The playoff line could’ve been an effective 4-1 for Houston, because they’ve already lost to Baltimore, so give thanks to your buddies in Jacksonville, Houston fans.
The Chiefs and Dolphins take all this chaos as a welcome opportunity to pull away from everybody, both moving to 4-1 while everybody else gets mired in the muck. Week six is more of the same, with each of our seven playoff contenders winning their games to leave all gaps untouched. This includes Cleveland scoring an extremely clutch 19-17 win over the best team in the NFL (SF 49ers) in what was also close to a must-win game to keep pace.
In our alternate history scenario, this San Francisco game is quite possibly the biggest win in the history of the new Browns. Not only is this one of their only times ever beating a truly great team, but it’s in the middle of this playoff race that their fans think they still have a chance of competing in.
However, there is some bad news.
Cleveland is going to have to go without without starting QB Deshaun Watson for a few weeks, who is once again facing shoulder issues. It’s clear that the 230 million dollar man is not what he once was, there were signs of life in the first four games. A positive CPOE for Deshaun indicates that a moderate turnaround was probably coming for this Cleveland pass offence.
Instead of that, Cleveland went into the San Francisco game starting PJ Walker. This is not a position I would wish on any NFL team, but this is Cleveland. The QB position has never been their strong suit. If any team can handle this, it’s them. It’s going to be PJ Walker for week seven in Indianapolis too, which is a game so ridiculous that I cannot bring myself to go by without covering it in depth.
Here we go.
First of all, look at the performances of the offences in this game.
Ouch. That’s terrible. Now, knowing how badly both offences played, give me your predictions as to what the score of this game was.
17-13. 13-10. Something like that. Right?
Wrong. Even with this level of offensive ineptitude, this game ended 39-38. It’s one of the silliest things I’ve ever seen in my life of analysing football games, and comes from the fact that if the other team isn’t scoring, it makes it very easy for you to score. Both teams managed to take advantage of this fact at once.
It didn’t start out this way though. The Cleveland Browns’ first drive is a one play touchdown run by Jerome Ford to immediately go up 7-0. Indy responds with a quick touchdown of their own, a 59 yard pass to Josh Downs. Each of Cleveland’s next two touches are so bad that the Colts get to start on their own 45 twice in a row, but the Browns’ defence is so good that they can at least hold this to a 14-7 deficit.
From here, after Cleveland punts again, a Miles Garrett strip sack sets up the Browns deep in Colt territory to rush six times in a row, and get the ball into the end zone, once again without any help whatsoever from PJ Walker. 14-14. Both offences are still walking in quicksand. Another takeaway gets the Browns the ball on the Indianapolis 19. The offence can’t move it at all from there, but do kick a field goal for a 17-14 lead.
At this point, the Colts manage to drive the length of the field, and score a touchdown.
What a concept.
It’s the two minute warning by this time, and PJ Walker throws an interception trying to operate the two minute drill. Thankfully, it’s overturned by video review, so we punt the ball back to the Colts, allowing Miles Garrett to get the team a touchdown when he strips the ball again out of Gardner Minshew’s hands. Cleveland recovers in the end zone for a 24-21 lead, and after a quick failure by the Colts there’s actually a successful FG try for a 27-21 Browns lead at the half, despite one of the worst halves of offensive football you will ever see.
There were four changes of possession in the last two minutes of the half. Browns, then Colts, defensive touchdown, Colts again, and then Cleveland again. It’s unbelievable, and still we are not finished. An interception on the Colt 38 nets Cleveland another field goal and a 30-21 lead in the third quarter. Some shenanigans including a turnover on downs inside our own territory squander that lead and turn it into a 31-30 deficit as the fourth quarter begins.
Nobody can move the ball. Eventually this ends in a field position score, a 58 yard FG to give the Browns back a 33-31 lead, to which Indianapolis responds with a one play touchdown. A 75 yard pass to Michael Pittman to take a 38-33 lead back.
What am I watching?
Why am I even telling this story?
Clearly Cleveland is going to respond right? That’s the only reason I would’ve come this far.
Are you kidding me? No, we go three and out and only narrowly miss turning the ball over. How else could it have gone? However, we are going to get one more chance, with the ball, and 2:35 on the clock.
This really has to go well. If we want to keep pace in this tight playoff fight, we cannot lose to Indianapolis. It would entirely invalidate the epic win over San Francisco last week, and that’s not acceptable. We have to score right now. No matter how ugly it has to look.
What results is the most awkward two minute drill you will ever see. At one point, three out of four plays are rushes, which is a wild thing to see inside the two minute warning behind by five points, but somehow, some way (including a game ending turnover being called back by an illegal contact penalty) we manage to get into the end zone for a 39-38 lead, which stands until the end of the game.
That game was beautiful in its atrociousness. This is what I love about the 2023 Cleveland Browns. They can’t do anything right on offence. Nothing at all. No Deshaun Watson. No Nick Chubb. A pretty good WR group being entirely wasted due to no QB being available who can actually throw, but it’s all moot because they have a defence that can win games on its own. Even 39-38 games.
Thank goodness for that, because week seven also sees wins out of each of the Chiefs, Ravens, and Jaguars, with the Texans on bye. The Buffalo Bills take one of the most shocking losses of the entire season, on the road against the Patriots, to fall to 4-3, and provisionally out of the playoffs. The Dolphins also take a really harsh 14 point loss on the road in Philadelphia, once again proving that they might not yet be ready for contender status, but I want to stay under the hood with Cleveland, to show you what happens when the defence isn’t up to the task.
Week eight on the road in Seattle is (once again) an extremely important game for the Browns to try to keep pace with the playoff line, the 5-2 Jacksonville Jaguars, and the offence does show up to play, by Cleveland standards. However, the defence does not, allowing touchdowns on each of the first two Seattle drives, albeit with one of those drives starting in Cleveland territory due to yet another turnover.
We clamp the doors shut from here though, allowing just three points in the next two quarters as the offence scratches and claws to try to make those 14 points up. It takes all the way until 7:33 of the third quarter, but at last the Browns tie this game at 17-17, but even against one of the worst defences in football, it’s hard for this Cleveland team to score without their defence putting them in premium positions.
Allowing just 17 points in three quarters to a Geno Smith led team is a good day for a defence, but without any turnovers or any prolonged field position wars, PJ Walker and Jerome Ford are just not cutting it. By the time we reach the end of the fourth quarter, this shows again.
We’ve managed to find a 20-17 lead, and we have the ball. First and ten. 3:30 left to play. The Seahawks have two timeouts, plus the two minute stoppage. All we need is one first down to take all of those from them, but because this is Cleveland, we cannot find that first down, and even worse we turn the ball over again, giving Seattle great field position to score the game winning touchdown to beat us 24-20.
As we look around the league and watch as the playoff line moves up to 6-2 with wins by Jacksonville, Baltimore, and Miami, and we even fall behind 5-3 Buffalo, it’s looking like it’s over for our poor 4-3 Cleveland Browns. The same goes for Houston, who lose again this week to fall all the way to 3-4, three full games behind the playoff line.
The Browns do win in week nine, in one of the most impressive defensive performances in the history of the NFL (27-0 against Arizona), but the truly important happenings in week nine come in Cincinnati, where the Bills take yet another loss to fall to 5-4, and in Kansas City, where the Chiefs barely squeeze out a 21-14 win over the Miami Dolphins.
This KC win saves Buffalo’s bacon, meaning they’re still just one game back of the playoff cutoff. It also massively helps out Cleveland for the same reason, but I’d like to take a quick stop to talk about scheduling. People love to talk about the Miami Dolphins choking the big games, but how come Miami has to play all the big games on the road?
It’s hard to win road games, and look at Miami’s three losses. On the road in Buffalo. On the road in Philadelphia. On the road in London against Kansas City. They’re the last team in the playoffs right now with their 6-3 record, but I’d like to see what they could do if some of these big games ever got brought into their stadium.
At the midway point of the season, these are the (relevant) AFC standings:
Kansas City Chiefs: 7-2
Baltimore Ravens: 7-2
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-2
Miami Dolphins: 6-3
Pittsburgh Steelers: 5-3
Cleveland Browns: 5-3
Cincinnati Bengals: 5-3
Buffalo Bills: 5-4
Houston Texans: 4-4
You may wonder looking at these standings why I haven’t taken any time to discuss either the Cincinnati Bengals or Pittsburgh Steelers. The answer for Cincinnati is simple. Losses to Cleveland, Baltimore, and Houston mean they are well down in every tiebreaker, making them further out of the race than they look. Despite finally getting rid of the injured Joe Burrow and replacing him with the much better (in 2023) Jake Browning, the defence is also about to tank their season, causing it to take a steep turn for the worse from here.
For Pittsburgh, it’s slightly more complicated. They do have wins over Baltimore and Cleveland to offset their losses to Jacksonville and Houston (which Cincinnati does not have), but it comes down to everybody just knowing the Steelers are not that good. Like Cincinnati, they never come within one game of the payoff race, and are not important to the story.
Ignoring the AFC North pretenders leaves us with our seven playoff hopefuls. I haven’t talked about KC or Baltimore very much, because what is there to say? They’re playing like Kansas City and like Baltimore. Jacksonville has rebounded from a bad start to go on a four game win streak to plant themselves firmly in the playoff race, with a head to head win over Buffalo that nobody else has. They’re in a good spot.
Miami is heading into a bye week. Their run of tough opponents is finished for the moment. Each of their next three will be easy victories against overmatched opponents, so we’ll check back on them in a little bit, which leaves us staring at the Cleveland Browns.
Cleveland has a bit of the Miami issue. They’ve not really played anybody, and the one time they did play somebody, they lost to Baltimore 28-3, but they’re still hanging around in this playoff race. They’re going to get a chance to relitigate that Baltimore issue, but not until I talk about the Buffalo Bills.
What’s up with Buffalo?
Losses to the Jets, Patriots, and Bengals are not nice things to see on a record. You Bills fans perpetually make fun of Miami for not being able to beat the good teams, but at least Miami can beat the bad ones. That’s better than you right now. You’ve made the playoffs four times in a row, and you’re losing to teams like the Jets. That doesn’t work, and you better thank your lucky stars that Miami is a bit of a paper tiger, or you’d be further behind than you are.
This is a pattern that continues into week ten, where Buffalo loses again, this time to Denver when a too many men penalty negates a missed last second field goal, to fall to 5-5.
Buffalo fans cry about one possession game luck, and it’s true. One possession game luck is exactly what decided their fate here, but a better thing to complain about is why you guys were in position to require one possession game luck to defeat the Denver Broncos. Once again, you guys love to poke fun at the Dolphins, but Miami beat this Denver team by 50 points. If you think you’re so much better than Miami, go out and beat Denver by 50 points, or at least 14, or at all.
This loss drops Buffalo to 5-5, which makes what comes next a catastrophe for them.
I told you that Cleveland was going to get another chance against Baltimore, and that chance comes right now. With the playoff line at 6-3, and no games against Miami on the schedule, dropping one game behind them to 5-4 would be the Browns surrendering the right to control their own destiny to the playoffs, which means Cleveland is going on the road to Baltimore to face another must-win scenario.
That’s not a good situation to be in. It’s perhaps the worst possible position an NFL team could be in, and even worse when you’re Cleveland. They’ve danced this dance before. I know I’ve got Browns fans in my comments. Has going into Baltimore in a must-win situation ever worked out well for the Cleveland Browns?
Deshaun Watson is back for this one, so at least we don’t have to deal with PJ Walker anymore. That’s a plus, but the pass game is still not very successful, and this Baltimore game starts off the same as pretty much every other Baltimore game in the history of the new Browns.
The first Watson pass attempt of the game is a pick six to Kyle Hamilton and a 7-0 deficit. The second and third are both incomplete, meaning we have to punt, and four and a half minutes into the game it’s a 14-0 deficit.
Damn it.
This is so Cleveland. Thirty years since we’ve made the playoffs. In those thirty years, there’s been very little hope. Even this one time they’ve managed to get my hopes up, they come out in the big game and play like this, just like in 2020. We do at least manage a field goal on our offensive series, but the Ravens give it right back as we finish the first quarter with a score of 17-3. We do manage to get this down to 17-9 as the first half ends, but with the ball coming out of half the Ravens bump their lead back up to 24-9, and I’m depressed.
How come nothing can ever go right for the Cleveland Browns? We haven’t made the playoffs in 30 years. Can’t something ever go right for us? When we beat the San Francisco 49ers, I thought this Browns team was different, but it’s not different. It’s just better. A better version of the same old Browns is not enough. We’ll just go 10-7 and miss the playoffs again, like in 2007. Something needs to change, and you know what?
It does change. It changes right now.
This game is where Cleveland proves that this season is different. It’s not the same old Browns. Yes, the QB troubles still persist. That will never change, but football is a team game, and this Cleveland Browns team is not the same as all the chokers of the past.
They’ve come to prove that.
The old Browns would’ve been scared of a moment like this. Down 24-9 against the AFC’s best team, but not us. I absolutely adore an extremely aggressive fourth and one call from Kevin Stefanki on our own 45 yard line to send the message to the Ravens that we are not scared. You haven’t beaten us. We’re still coming for you.
This fourth down try pays off in spades, as we do manage to convert it, and end this drive off with a touchdown and a 24-17 deficit. When the defence allows a touchdown to balloon the score back up to 31-17, that would’ve been the end for the old Browns.
Not for us.
The response touchdown is perfect, taking less than two minutes, and we’re back in the game again, down 31-24 with nine minutes to play. Perhaps reignited by this offensive spark, our vaunted defence also mans up, and grabs a pick six on the very next play to almost instantly shrink this 14 point deficit to a tie game.
Well. We thought it was tied anyway.
Dustin Hopkins misses the extra point kick, and in a very Browns turn of events, we remain behind 31-30. Once again, if these were the same old Browns, that could’ve been the end, but once again we definitively prove that we are not.
The defence gets us the ball back with five minutes left on the clock, and we make it look easy, walking slowly down the field, eating up every one of those five minutes, and all three of Baltimore’s timeouts, and kicking the game winning field goal with no time left on the clock. Cleveland Browns win 33-31.
Message sent.
Uh-oh Buffalo. Uh-oh Jacksonville. Uh-oh Miami, and with this head to head win, uh-oh Baltimore. You guys thought you were going to be able to decide this playoff spot amongst yourselves, but you were wrong. The Cleveland Browns are here to play, and you better believe that we’re going to be getting in your way every chance we get.
What just two weeks ago looked like a lost cause of a playoff battle when Cleveland lost to Seattle and Buffalo lost to New England to fall two games behind apiece, has turned into a dogfight. With week ten seeing losses for Jacksonville, Baltimore, and Buffalo, plus byes for Miami, and Kansas City, we can now see that there are five teams within one game of each other.
Kansas City at 7-2. Baltimore at 7-3. Jacksonville, Miami, and Cleveland all at 6-3, plus Houston at 5-4 and Buffalo at 5-5. Seven teams for four spots. The last eight weeks of the season are going to be electric.
Week 11 once again sees wins from everybody, except Kansas City, who take an uncharacteristic home primetime loss, which improbably drags the four time defending AFC champions down to being the very last team in the playoffs, in the same dogfight as everybody else, all sitting one game behind Baltimore.
This is not good for the Chiefs. They have serious issues developing. However, they will be spared for one week, as they have an easy matchup against the Raiders, and get to watch as week 12 turns the whole AFC playoff race upside down.
I’m going to begin with another rematch. Week 12 sees the 7-3 Jaguars going against the 6-4 Texans in a game that both sides desperately need. The Texans are running out of time to close the gap on the playoff line. They do have a game against Cleveland remaining on the schedule, in addition to this one, so they do (narrowly) control their destiny to the playoffs, but only if they can win this game.
On the other hand, Jacksonville lost by 20 points to Houston when these two teams played last. A loss here would mean that the Jags have to pass the Texans, in addition to at least two of the other teams, in order to make the postseason. A win would mean that they are in the driver’s seat to make the playoffs for just the second time in the last 15 years.
This is a big deal. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans have been playing each other for twice per season for 21 years, and it’s never been bigger than this. Let’s go under the hood with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
This game is virtually a pick ’em. The Jags are coming in as one point road favourites, which is not confidence inspiring, but right out of the gate, we’re ready to play, as we stop Houston’s first offensive possession, and score first on a 40 yard field goal. In fact, we don’t allow Houston to get much of anything going for all of the first quarter. We don’t score any more points ourselves, but we get back to scoring once the clock ticks over into the second quarter, with most of the damage being done on a single 42 yard pass. 10-0 Jacksonville.
The Texans are not ready to die though, as they quickly and easily score their own response touchdown to narrow the score to 10-7, and this is where I unveil the prevailing storyline behind the entire 2023 Jaguars’ season.
Doug Pedersen’s play selection. It’s awful.
The Jaguars have one of the worst rush offences in the NFL, yet Doug insists on continuing to use it as if it’s still one of the best, like it was in 2022. Here’s the thing Doug. It’s not 2022 anymore. His wasting of over 30 plays on a very bad rush offence is going to go a long way to helping his team lose this game, by doing things like we see on the next series.
The pass game easily gets the ball to the Houston 25, where Doug decides (for some reason) to call first down rush. It goes for -6 yards, and the drive is killed. We’re forced to settle for a field goal and a 13-7 lead. This has been happening all season by the way, and will continue to happen. Just keep that in mind.
Even if we fast forward to the end of the first half. It’s first and goal from the one yard line with one second left. The Jags line up to try to score a touchdown (which I agree with), but give the ball to Travis Etienne (which I do not agree with). We fail. We score no points.
Some of these points would’ve helped as the Texans open the second half by scoring a touchdown and taking a 14-13 lead. My eyes are rolling. We’ve dominated most of this game, and yet we are behind because of poor play selection forcing us to settle for field goals (or no points at all).
No worries though. Occasionally, talent can overcome poor play calling, as we immediately march back down the field to take a 21-14 lead back. We make this a 24-14 lead at the beginning of the fourth quarter. There is a Houston touchdown at the five minute mark to make this game 24-21, but our defence is able to do just barely enough to hold the Texans to a 58 yard field goal attempt at the end of this game, which hits the crossbar, and by not even a full yard, the Jaguars win.
8-3 feels nice, but this could’ve been a lot easier than it was. Surely, this consistent self harm on the offensive side won’t come back to haunt us later in the season.
In other happenings in week 12, Miami, Baltimore, and Kansas City all win, in addition to Jacksonville. Buffalo loses again, this time to Philadelphia, dropping them to 6-6, and even more heartbreakingly, Cleveland takes an unexpected loss, on the road against a thoroughly average Denver Broncos, as a result of Deshaun Watson being hurt again, this time for good. Cleveland tries the PJ Walker experience again, to no avail. Dorian Thompson-Robinson plays a bit better, but it’s not good enough to best the Broncos.
On a side note, the 2023 Denver Broncos are a cautionary tale on why sometimes it’s more important to beat the bad teams than the good ones. Here they are with head to head wins over Kansas City, Buffalo, and Cleveland, and are still no factor in the race. That’s why first worry is always beating the teams you are supposed to beat. If you win against all poor teams you play (like Miami is doing), the big boys can be saved for later. If you don’t, beating the big boys means absolutely nothing. Try again next year Denver.
Resetting after week 12, Baltimore is 9-3, still not having had their bye yet, which comes this week. Miami, Jacksonville, and Kansas City are all occupying the final three playoff spots at 8-3. Cleveland has slipped to 7-4, but has a chance to stay in the race if they can keep winning. Houston has fallen to 6-5, and Buffalo all the way to 6-6, barely on the fringes of the race.
Buffalo no longer control their own destiny to a playoff spot, and it looks as if their portion of the three team AFC domination is getting ready to end. However, never count out the Buffalo Bills, and they do have the opportunity to be some of their own help, with games against both Kansas City and Miami remaining on the schedule. They will need more help than this, but they can do a great deal of the heavy lifting on their own.
This leads us into week 13. Neither Baltimore nor Buffalo are playing. Miami takes an easy 45-15 victory over Washington to move into a 9-3 tie atop the conference, and both the Dolphins and Ravens watch as everybody behind them takes a loss. Cleveland switches QBs again, this time trying out a fossilized Joe Flacco, but cannot spark the offence, and take an ugly 36-19 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams. Their loss is bailed out by the performance of the two remaining teams.
The Kansas City Chiefs are on Sunday Night Football, and get in the way of Jordan Love’s unstoppable rampage, taking a demoralising loss to the Green Bay Packers. Even more demoralising than this is the fate of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who cannot contain Jake Browning and the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football, losing 34-31 in overtime, partly due to not having Trevor Lawrence due to injury for much of the second half, partly due to a missed fourth quarter field goal, and partly due to the aforementioned defensive shortcomings.
All of these losses are exactly what the Houston Texans needed, as they score a win over the Denver Broncos to vault themselves to 7-5, back within one game of the final AFC playoff position. It’s extremely rare to see all of the good teams in a conference (except Miami) lose in one week. I was seriously considering counting the Houston Texans out of it, but not anymore. They’re right back in the race now, and all of this is before the carnage of week 14.
We’re rounding into the home stretch. Week 14 is going to be some of the most important football played in the 2023 NFL season. It contains three of the most consequential games of the year, but before I get into that, I would like to take one final pause to take a look into each team’s circumstances, both in real life, and in our alternate history.
Houston: In real life, the Texans are on the outside looking into the playoffs going into week 14 with their 7-5 record. However, that’s a bit of a mirage, because all three wild card teams are the AFC North right now. They will cannibalise each other in the final weeks of the season. Therefore, Houston just has to win the majority of their games against their (very weak) remaining schedule, and they will at least make a wild card spot. I’d put their odds well above 50/50
In our alternate history scenario, this is not the case. They are hanging onto playoff chances by a very thin thread. The loss against Jacksonville hurt badly, and Houston is going to need a lot of help from a lot of different directions in order to make it to that fourth playoff spot. It’s imperative that they win every one of their five remaining games, because there’s no guarantee that even 12-5 will make the playoffs.
Buffalo: In real life, the Bills are in the same position as the Texans. They’re behind the entire AFC North, plus Indianapolis. However, these teams will take losses, because they have to all play each other. Therefore, even at 6-6, there are still not many worries for Buffalo, other than the tough schedule, which contains all of KC, Dallas, and Miami. Buffalo must win at least two of those three.
In our world, the Bills are actually in a better spot than Houston, despite their 6-6 record, because they have the opportunity to drag both the Chiefs and Dolphins down to their level with head to head matchups remaining. Much like Houston, Buffalo must win every game from here for any hopes of competing in the postseason, because even though I said 12-5 wouldn’t be good enough for Houston, 11-6 would be good enough for Buffalo, due to their ability to cause some other teams some losses. They do need some help (one additional loss from either KC or Miami), but this is not an unrealistic ask with five weeks left in the season.
Cleveland: This team’s playoff positioning was tenuous in real life, with Baltimore already having the division sealed, but still likely only needed to go 3-2 over their final five to end up at 10-7 with a playoff spot.
That is not the case in our world. Sitting at 7-5, Cleveland does control their own destiny to a playoff position, owing to a matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars remaining on the schedule, but they must win it. No ifs, ands, or buts. Winning at home against the Jaguars puts this team in the driver’s seat to a playoff position. Losing almost entirely eliminates them. Even with that win over Jacksonville, it’s likely going to take four out of five from here.
Jacksonville: In real life, this team looks to be in no danger. Two wins up on the playoff line, it would take a monumental collapse to fall out of the playoffs from this 8-4 position. The game against Cleveland is a non-factor, as is one other game, as all they need is a 3-2 record in the final five to win the AFC South.
In our world, this is entirely different. Due to what would be head to head losses against both KC and Cleveland, losing this matchup against the Browns would immediately put the Jaguars on the outside of the playoff picture, looking in. With a game remaining against Baltimore after that, it could get really bad really quick for a team that’s had a comfortable cushion most of the season.
Kansas City: This is the team that’s position differs the most between the real world and our alternate history scenario. In real life, the AFC West is already won, and the first round bye is already gone, having to make up two games on Baltimore and one on Miami. There was never any realistic chance of that happening. Nothing they do matters from this point forward.
In our world, this is radically different. The whole AFC looks to Kansas City to hold Buffalo down and finally put them out of this race when the two teams play. If the Chiefs cannot find that win, they will drop to 8-5, and out of the playoff positions altogether, in addition to getting themselves a head to head loss against Buffalo. This team just a few weeks ago was comfortable, but with two losses in the last three weeks they have used up their cushion. They are the final team in right now, and really don’t want to fall much further.
Baltimore & Miami: Between real life and our alternate world, these two teams remain mostly unchanged. Both are 9-3 and have cushion. Barring a miracle, both of these teams will be in the playoffs in either format, and in both formats it’s all about that week 17 game between the two for home field advantage through the playoffs.
Now that we see each team’s circumstances going into week 14, I can discuss three of the most consequential games of the entire 2024 NFL season. I will go in chronological order.
The first sees the 8-4 Jaguars going to Cleveland to face the 7-5 Cleveland Browns. Like I just said above, if Jacksonville wins this game, they will virtually be a lock for the playoffs. If Cleveland wins it, they will merely take a playoff position back again, still needing to defend it with their lives, but if either team loses, it’s going to get seriously hairy for them.
Additionally, both teams coming into this game are dealing with QB issues. Trevor Lawrence is going to try to give it a go with the hamstring injury that kept him out of the fourth quarter and OT of a game that the Jaguars really would’ve liked to win last week. He will spend this game obviously visually hampered, but can he be as bad as Joe Flacco, who is Cleveland’s fourth different starting QB of the season? There’s a reason this man was available. He hasn’t done anything at the NFL level since 2018, and last week in Los Angeles, he generated -0.17 EPA/Play in a game the Browns desperately needed, but could not get.
It looks as if both teams are engaged in a race to the bottom, and in some ways they are, but nevertheless, this is the biggest game either franchise has played in years. The new Browns have never played a game this important. The Jaguars have, but it’s been six years since the 2017 AFC Championship game. This is the chance (the only chance) for both teams to take a step forward into being truly relevant in the AFC. The hype is palpable.
This has big game feel, but only one team comes out playing like it. The first drive of the game is a Cleveland touchdown. There are then six drives in a row of absolute offensive ineptitude (three per side), before Cleveland scores another touchdown to begin the second quarter. This is a 14-0 lead, but later in the second, Amari Cooper fumbles on his own 12 yard line, giving the Jaguars a touchdown of their own and a 14-7 score.
This reminds me a little bit of Indianapolis. The Cleveland defence is impeccable, but the offence will continue to put them in bad positions. Nevertheless, the Browns are able to escape the half with a 14-7 lead, and the energy in the Cleveland fandom is electric. They are not used to being in big games like this, and even less used to winning them, but winning is exactly what they do.
The Browns open up the second half with a takeaway, and a touchdown that makes the score 21-7, and that’s it. It’s over. The Jaguars will get within seven a couple times, but facing this juggernaut of a defence, they will never get across midfield within seven points. Cleveland takes this game 31-27 to move both teams to 8-5, and steal Jacksonville’s playoff spot away. We turn our eyes to Kansas City.
The 8-4 Chiefs are playing the 6-6 Bills. Everybody and their mother is rooting for KC. Cleveland fans. Jacksonville fans. Miami fans. Houston fans. Everybody wants the Chiefs to score this victory, put the nail in the Bills’ coffin, and at last eliminate them from the race for good. Even with a 6-6 record, everybody knows how great the Bills are, and wants them gone. There’s just one problem.
They’re not ready to go without a fight.
This game is scrappy, and it’s gritty, and it’s ugly. Most of the time is spent with Patrick Mahomes relying on his defence to make up for his several turnovers. That defence is more or less able to do it, giving Patrick chance after chance to turn it on, but in a reversal of fortune given the past between these two teams, the Chiefs have the ball within one score in the fourth quarter with the chance to finally kill the Bills not once, not twice, but three times, and are unable to convert.
This game is closer than it should’ve been, but everybody groans as the Bills hold. Buffalo have finally won an important game against the Chiefs, and are very much alive in this race, especially with a head to head win over KC. What’s that phrase about waking sleeping giants? The Bills are awake and alive folks. It’s on our hopefuls to try to hold them out.
Last but not least in the week 14 madness is Monday Night Football, where the Miami Dolphins take an appalling 28-27 loss as 14 point home favourites against the Tennessee Titans, despite having a 14 point lead with as little as 2:53 left to play. That’s a one percent estimated chance to lose according to NFLFastR, but Miami figured a way to do it.
The Dolphins are making their best effort to play their way out of the contender category. However, other teams’ floundering is saving them once again. Both teams that represented the playoff line coming into week 14 (Jaguars and Chiefs) lost, meaning that the Dolphins didn’t even use up their cushion with this brutal Monday Night collapse. Still, this a pattern that needs not to continue.
Additionally, we have to say one farewell. With a 30-6 loss to the New York Jets, the Houston Texans fall behind the Buffalo Bills in the standings at 7-6, and with so many teams to pass, are not going to be able to get help from all of them. This has been a good season for a team with a rookie QB and a generally young character, but ill-timed losses against both Jacksonville and New York have ruined their chances to make a run at the playoffs this year. From this point on, we will hear no more from the Texans.
We are down to six teams fighting for four spots. Week 15 does little to change this, featuring convincing victories from everybody against their respective opponents, with one exception. The Baltimore Ravens beat the doors off the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-7, pushing Jacksonville down to 8-6, Baltimore up to 11-3, and closing the door on one of the four playoff positions.
This win leaves Baltimore a game ahead of Miami, and two games ahead of the playoff line, with three games to play. They will not be missing the playoffs. They’ve risen above the fight. Their participation in this race for the playoffs is over. We will hear no more from the Baltimore Ravens.
This leaves five teams fighting for three remaining spots. The 10-4 Miami Dolphins, 9-5 Cleveland Browns, 9-5 KC Chiefs, 8-6 Jacksonville Jaguars, and 8-6 Buffalo Bills are left to mix it up for the final three playoff spots in the AFC.
All of Miami, Cleveland, and Kansas City control their own destiny. However, this does not mean the same thing to everybody. Cleveland and Kansas City are both in really good tiebreak situations, as long as KC does not have to break a tie with Buffalo. Miami on the other hand is in a terrible tiebreak position, meaning they need to stay ahead of everybody, at all costs. If they fall down into a tie, it’s almost certain that they will lose a tie breaking scenario, and come up just one game short of the playoffs, again.
For the good of the regime in Miami, they really need not to do that. This has been a good year, but with another near playoff miss, it would be grounds to begin fearing for jobs, which makes this week 16 game the most important game this iteration of the Miami Dolphins have ever played.
For once, they get to play it at home, which is a welcome change of pace, but unfortunately it comes against the Dallas Cowboys, who are the third best team in the NFL right now, behind only SF and Baltimore. This is a really bad team to have to play such an important game against.
I wouldn’t wish this situation on anybody, but the least of all on the Miami Dolphins, who have developed a reputation over the years of not being able to beat the best teams, in the biggest moments. This is a big moment for Mike McDaniel, whose job is likely on the line today (and every day, until the end of the season). It’s a big moment for Tua Tagovailoa, who has serious talks about a contract extension to go through after this season. Perhaps falling one game short of the playoffs again could cause the team to look in other directions.
The big game criteria is satisfied, as is the great opponent criteria. The Dallas Cowboys are fantastic. Right after this game, they’re about to go bash the Detroit Lions’ heads in (a game where refereeing did not decide the final outcome as much as Detroit good luck did), definitively proving their superiority in the NFC above everybody except San Francisco. This certainly fits the real team criteria. This is better than a real team. Like I said, the Cowboys are the third best team in the NFL.
With games against Baltimore and Buffalo coming up, it’s not going to get any easier after this. The Dolphins need this win, certainly worse than they’ve needed any win since 2008, and probably worse than they’ve needed any game in 20 years. For Miami to get to where they want to go, they’re going to have to overcome their demons, and defeat one of the NFL’s best teams, in the biggest game of their lives.
It does not start out well, as Dallas drives straight down to the Miami one yard line, but a botched snap on their QB sneak attempt allows us to get out of that situation alive, and without any points given up. In response, we score first, getting off to a 3-0 start. However, our defence does not appear to be up to this challenge, as it takes just three plays for the Cowboys to go up 7-3, putting us on the back foot, and we’re even further on the back foot when we go to their goal line and come back with no points ourselves.
Just like Cleveland in Baltimore, this could’ve been a serious mental hurdle for us. This is a Miami team used to losing when they get into spots like this. Comebacks against elite teams are not what the Dolphins do, and we had a chance to take the lead back, but we blew it. Thankfully the defence holds for the rest of the half, and we’re able to make this a 13-7 lead going into half time.
We’ve overcome the first hurdle, but we’re not out of the woods yet.
A 16-7 second half lead, and then a 19-10 fourth quarter lead should be safe, but we’re the Dolphins. Nothing is safe. We’re unable to score for two drives in a row as the Cowboys eat up almost the entire fourth quarter in a grinding touchdown drive to take a 20-19 lead at the 3:33 mark.
Oh no.
This can’t be happening. Not after all we’ve been through. We can’t be losing this game. Do you know how hard everybody is going to laugh at us if we find a way to lose this game and fall out of playoff position? You may think I’m exaggerating, but I think this can be the straw that breaks the entire franchise. Things like this are what convince vain owners and GMs to blow the whole thing up. We cannot lose this game.
We will not lose this game.
It’s slow. Five yards and seven yards at a time, but we are able to drive all the way down the field, exhaust all Dallas timeouts, and kick a field goal to win this football game 22-20.
Disaster averted.
Score one for those who think the Dolphins can win the big games. There’s never been one bigger, not for this current Dolphin regime, and we’ve come out of it the winners.
In news on our other contenders, there is one more goodbye. Trevor Lawrence’s hamstring injury was worse than initially thought. He has played terribly each of the last three weeks as the Jaguars have fallen from 8-3 to 8-7 and all the way out of the playoff race that at one point they were leading. There will be no more heard from them this season.
That leaves four teams fighting for three spots. We’ve already heard from Miami. What of the others?
Cleveland in week 15 has to play the biggest game in franchise history for the fourth time this season, on the road against a Houston team with scant playoff hopes of their own technically still remaining, but the Browns come out of it with a resounding 36-22 victory and fear in the hearts of every other team in the AFC.
Not often is this said, but you don’t want to see Cleveland right now. This Cleveland offence has just generated better than 0.05 EPA/Play in a game for just the second time all season, and if they can do that, with this defence they’ve got, you will not beat them. Period.
Buffalo has to fight tooth and nail on the road in Los Angeles to get through Easton Stick and the Chargers. It’s a game that reminds me of a college atmosphere, with the Chargers wanting to spoil everything for the Bills, and Buffalo not being able to get out of first gear.
Earlier in the season, the Bills would’ve lost this game. They lost all the other ones just like it, but Buffalo is back to being the juggernaut they’ve always been, and the real Bills don’t lose games like this.
This is a horrendous development for the Kansas City Chiefs, who are not the juggernaut they’ve always been, turning in a horrifying, disgusting, absolutely unacceptable -0.22 EPA/Play offensive performance in a 20-14 loss at home against Las Vegas.
It is always unacceptable to lose at home against Las Vegas, but given the circumstances, people are ready to riot.
NFL fans are a fickle bunch. Even four Super Boal appearances in a row cannot prevent the Chiefs being booed off of their home field (/|\). Just two months ago, the Chiefs were 6-1 and looking automatic to win the AFC again. They have lost five out of seven games since then, and are now going to need help to even make the postseason.
With two weeks remaining, there are four contenders left for three remaining playoff positions. The 11-4 Dolphins are leading the way. The 10-5 Cleveland Browns are all of a sudden looking fairly safe behind them. The 9-6 Bills have leapfrogged Kansas City into the final playoff position, and the Chiefs all of a sudden look sickly. They look like they’ve played four full postseasons in a row. They’ve been booed off their home field. They’re out of gas.
Or are they?
That brings us to week 16. The Kansas City Chiefs’ finest hour.
On Thursday Night football, the Cleveland Browns convincingly defeated the New York Jets 37-20. The Chiefs’ help is not coming from them. Earlier this afternoon, the Buffalo Bills defeated the New England Patriots. No help is coming from there either. The Miami Dolphins did take a loss (in humiliating fashion to the almighty Baltimore Ravens), but they were two games ahead of KC. That’s not enough help.
All of that means that if Kansas City loses today, they will be locked behind both Buffalo and Baltimore in the playoff standings, in need of help from both Miami and Cleveland in week 17 to make the playoffs at all. That would put the Chiefs’ playoff chances so thin that it’d be generous to say they still existed, and what kind of ending would that be?
This would be the most unsatisfying possible ending to the most undisputed era of dominance in NFL history. Losing six of the last eight games like an old bull who needs to be put out to stud, falling out of the race, and missing the playoffs altogether would be unsatisfactory for everybody. Nobody would make a movie out of that. There would be no going out on the shield. No last gasp hurrah. No repeat Super Bowls. Just a team missing the playoffs altogether, because at the midway point of the season it all at once became clear that they weren’t good enough anymore.
Do you want that to be the ending to the Chiefs’ reign of terror? Do you want the Chiefs to roll over and die like an old dog behind the shed? I sure don’t, and judging by how well they play in week 17, they don’t want that either.
The Chiefs are eight point home favourites against the Cincinnati Bengals, but I truthfully don’t understand why. If you compare the Bengals after telling Joe Burrow to go away to the Chiefs since midseason, I think the Bengals win that comparison. I think (because of the real format) the betting public just didn’t notice how noticeably the Chiefs have been limping. I certainly wouldn’t have bet on KC as eight point favourites.
If these Chiefs aren’t careful, instead of 2023 being the crowning achievement of a dynasty, they’re going to find themselves the crowning achievement of Jake Browning’s NFL story, as the Bengals are able to score on each of their first three possessions to take a 17-7 lead, partially aided by another Patrick Mahomes turnover, and there’s the booing again (/|\). At this point, Chiefs fans are thinking of that old bull I was describing. What once was strong and fast and powerful is now slower, weaker, unable to do what he once was able to do.
Remember the Buffalo game? Not one, not two, but three chances in the fourth quarter, none of which were converted into a win. Same thing against Las Vegas. Same thing against Philadelphia. Same thing against Green Bay. Facing a 17-7 deficit is not as easy of a mountain to climb as it used to be.
The Chiefs are able to cut this deficit to 17-13 by half, but on the Bengals’ first drive of the second half, they’re marching down the field again. They’re inside our ten again. This is looking ugly. We really need something to happen defensively, and this is where the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs prove they’ve still got some fight after all.
A fourth and one stand gets the Bengals off the field with no points, and keeps this game alive. From here, the Bengals don’t score on their next touch. They go three and out the try after that, and the one after that, and before you know it, the game has finished.
The Bengals never scored again. The Bengals never got close to scoring again, so while the KC offence was just there (0.05 EPA/Play is well short of impressive), much like Cleveland, okay on offence is good enough when you have a defence of this calibre. It’s a 25-17 win, and the Chiefs remain alive.
That brings us to week 18. The final games of the 2023 NFL season. There are only five teams alive. Baltimore clinched their spot weeks ago. What are the permutations for the other four? The tie breaking rules in 1977 were exactly identical to the tie breaking rules the NFL uses now, so let’s go through the scenarios, beginning with Cleveland.
Cleveland is sitting at 11-5. They have not played any of Miami, Buffalo, or Kansas City. The easiest way to get in is obviously to win and avoid any ties, but in the event of a loss, what needs to happen for them? One answer is obvious. In the event of a loss, Cleveland would need either of the ten win teams (Buffalo or Kansas City) to lose. What if neither of those teams lose?
If Buffalo and Kansas City were to win, and Cleveland and Miami were to lose, that would make a four way tie for the AFC’s final three playoff spots, all at 11-6. There can be no head to head tie break, because Cleveland has played none of these teams. That moves us to the second tie breaker. Conference record. Who would make the playoffs in this circumstance?
I’m glad you asked.
Should Kansas City defeat the Chargers in their final game of the season, they would possess a 9-3 AFC conference record, giving them the leg up and the second seed. Cleveland would be sitting at 8-4 in conference with a loss in the final week to Cincinnati, putting them in the third seed. This would leave just two teams, both Buffalo and Miami having 7-5 conference records, but in this scenario Buffalo defeating Miami twice would see them in as the fourth seed.
For Cleveland, all of this means that they have done it. They have made the playoffs for the first time since 1994. Even a win in week 18 will still require help from Miami to get a home playoff game in Cleveland, so coach Kevin Stefanski deems this pursuit not worthwhile, and will rest starters for the final game of the season (/|\). That’s two playoff spots locked down, so where does that leave the other three?
Very simple. Win and in.
All three teams left in the fight are in the position of winning guaranteeing them a spot in the playoffs. However, only one team is in the position of losing guaranteeing elimination.
Buffalo is in a tight situation. Winning in Miami guarantees a playoff spot, but losing in Miami means automatic elimination, even in the event of a KC loss, because this would mean a four-way tie for the final playoff spot between 10-7 Kansas City, and Buffalo, but also Houston, and Pittsburgh. Buffalo’s head to head win against Kansas City would not save them from the fact they went only 6-6 in-conference. They must win.
If Kansas City win in the final game of the season against Los Angeles, they can finish anywhere between second and fourth in the conference depending on the happenings in Cleveland and Miami, but their playoff position will be assured. Even with a loss in the final game of the season, they can pray for a Buffalo loss to force the aforementioned four way tie with Buffalo, Houston, and Pittsburgh, which would net them fourth place.
I talked before about Miami’s bad tiebreak situation, and I meant it. Despite coming into this week with the same number of wins as Cleveland, and having been ahead of the Browns all season, the Browns can rest starters, meanwhile the Dolphins must give Buffalo everything they have, because they will lose any and all three or four-way tiebreakers. If they lose against Buffalo, due to finishing the season with 11 wins instead of ten, they can still hope for a KC loss, which seems like a long shot, but KC’s losses have been saving everybody’s behinds for half a season now, so maybe it isn’t.
Did you get all that?
Cleveland is in no matter what, but can finish either second or third depending on what other teams do. Miami is in and clinches a home playoff game against Cleveland with a win. If they lose, they can still finish fourth with a KC loss. KC and Buffalo are both in the playoffs with a win. Buffalo is out with a loss. KC can lose and finish fourth with a Buffalo loss. All other teams are eliminated.
The first game that takes place in all this week 18 madness is Cleveland’s, on the road in Cincinnati. There’s nothing to talk about though. The Browns play like a team that’s playing for nothing, and get blown out 31-14 with Jeff Driskel as starting QB, their fifth different one of the year. This loss is going to go a long way to forcing the tie I discussed above. That’s bad for both Buffalo and Miami, but to see just how bad it is, we must first go to the 4 o’clock game between Kansas City and Los Angeles.
In last week’s game against Cincinnati, Patrick Mahomes was injured in the fourth quarter, so badly that he’s not going to be able to go for the most important game of the Chiefs’ season (/|\). He’ll be back for the playoffs, but the team has to get there first. This means that KC is going to have to go with Blaine Gabbert as their starting QB. For an offence that’s been having its struggles even with Patrick Mahomes at the controls, this is the last thing that they want to hear, but they did not win with offence last week (or any time since week 12 in Las Vegas), so the defence is used to carrying this team by now, and carry they do.
Coming in as four point road underdogs against the five-win Los Angeles Chargers to a game for the playoff lives of the four time defending AFC Champions is what Blaine Gabbert will do for a team. Nobody thinks the Chiefs are going to pull through and make the playoffs. Not a soul (except maybe
), but all of those people who doubted are about to learn a lesson in winning a football game the hard way.The offence was okay under Mahomes, but it’s untenable under Blaine Gabbert. KC won’t get a first down until 13 minutes into this game, won’t get across midfield until deep into the second quarter, and did you really think they were going to get any red zone opportunities?
Things look really bad when the Chargers are all the way inside the KC ten on their first drive of the game, but that electric Chiefs’ defence once again comes through in a key moment, just like last week. A Charles Omenihu strip sack puts the ball on the ground, and Mike Edwards runs it all the way back for a touchdown. Despite no offence whatsoever, it’s 7-0 Chiefs, and as a result, the prolonged punting war this game turns into is actually one big exercise in running out the clock towards a KC victory.
Near the two minute warning, some fake punt shenanigans from Andy Reid get the Chiefs into position to kick a field goal for a 10-0 lead, and how about the balls on Andy Reid? Calling fake punt on your own 45 in a game where your defence has had no trouble stopping the opposition in such a high pressure situation takes serious courage to do. Not many coaches would’ve found that courage, but Andy Reid did, and it bought his team three invaluable points.
These points are so valuable because no defence can hold forever. A pass interference call on a random deep ball nets the Chargers field position to be able to score three points. A Blaine Gabbert interception nets them field position to score another three, which sees the halftime score 10-6.
Imagine how much more intimidating that would’ve been if it read 7-6. Good on you, Andy Reid. Even better, those three fake punt points look like gold when LA kicks another FG to narrow the score to 10-9 as we enter the fourth quarter. At this point though, we have exhausted all of our mulligans. We cannot allow even another field goal, or our season will be over.
We get them off the field once, only to waste a timeout not scoring any points on offence (ouch), and giving them the ball back again. This time, we cannot get the Chargers off the field. They are continually spamming the ‘Austin Ekeler’ button, and while this hasn’t worked all day it’s working now. Seven yards at a time all the way down to our 38.
We’ve got them stopped at fourth and six. The Chargers will not try a Cameron Dicker field goal from this far out. They must go for this fourth down, giving us one final chance to get off the field without allowing any points, but we just can’t do it. The fourth down pass is converted, and you can hear a pin drop in the KC fanbase as the Chargers walk all the way down to the one yard line. It’s looking like it’s time to start praying for bad things to happen to the Bills.
We are able to stop them on the one yard line, in a potentially season saving goal line stand, holding them to another field goal that sees us facing a 12-10 deficit with four minutes left to go, but this is still a bad situation. All we need is a field goal, but there is only four minutes left to go. With Patrick Mahomes, of course I would still bet on the Chiefs here, but we have Blaine Gabbert.
The season is on the line. We’re staring at third and seven from our own 28, with only three and a half minutes left to play. We must convert this, or the fate of the Chiefs’ dynasty is entirely predicated on the Miami Dolphins defeating the Buffalo Bills later tonight, something they are not favoured to do. This is the biggest single play of Blaine Gabbert’s (and most players’) NFL career. Is he up to this moment?
Yes he is.
What a time for our most productive (non-fake punt) offensive play of the day, as Blaine sees the hole open up, and shoots through it for a 25 yard scramble into an empty middle of the field. The very next play is a 14 yard scramble, and we’re into field goal range. As the ball flies off of Harrison Butker’s foot and through the uprights, the sigh of relief can be heard all the way from Kansas City. Andy Reid’s fake punt call will be remembered as one of the most famous moments in the history of the team. The fake punt that saved a dynasty. The Chiefs’ two week comeback after falling out of the playoffs after the Vegas loss is complete. By the skin of our teeth, we get a chance to fight another day.
That’s three of the four AFC playoff positions sewn up, with just one more left to be decided. On Sunday Night Football, it’s time to see who the fourth and final AFC playoff team will be. Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins.
Once again, this is everything to Miami. Just five weeks ago, they were 9-3 while Buffalo was languishing at 6-6. The Bills were not even on their radar, but the silly loss in the fourth quarter against Tennessee and the humiliation at the hands of the Ravens have brought us to this point. 21 years of continuous playoff absence come down to this one night.
Both Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa will be Gods in Miami if they can end the never-ending playoff drought. Dolphin fans are looking longingly across the conference at the jubilation in Cleveland, knowing that could’ve been them if not for the silliness in week 14. If this game is won, and the Miami Dolphins play a home playoff game, all of that can be forgiven. If this game is lost, and the Miami Dolphins come up one game short of the playoffs again, there will be hell to pay. I can almost guarantee there will be no Tua Tagovailoa extension. I also have serious doubts about Mike McDaniel’s future. I would be more shocked if both remain to begin 2024 than if neither remain. That’s what this means to the Miami Dolphins. Everything this team has been working for comes down to this one night.
As for Buffalo, it’s just as unacceptable to miss the postseason. No coach will be fired. Josh Allen will not be cut. There’s been too much success for that, and in that way the pressure is more on Miami than it is on Buffalo, but there’s always the inherent pressure of being a real Super Bowl contender. Super Bowl contenders have missed the playoffs before. We very nearly just watched the KC Chiefs do it. It can happen, but it always leads to slight panic that it will never again be the way it was. This panic (in both the fanbase and the organisation) ought to be avoided at all costs, which makes this a high pressure night for Buffalo as well, in addition to the real chance of winning the Super Bowl that would be thrown away with a loss tonight.
Perhaps both teams feel the weight of the moment, as both teams start the game with interceptions. One from Tua, and one from Josh Allen in kind. A do-nothing Miami possession and a second consecutive Josh Allen INT mean we get out of the first quarter without any points being scored, but Miami strikes first at the beginning of the second.
It comes out of nowhere, as the Dolphin offence had been struggling for the first 20 minutes of the game, but converting a third and 14 seems to open up everything, cascading into a drive that ends with a 25 yard touchdown run from Devon Achane. Buffalo does not take this lying down, easily responding with a touchdown of their own, but Miami is determined to hold serve, scoring another touchdown that takes them into the half with a 14-7 lead.
It was looking good for the Dolphins. They even made it into the fourth quarter with the lead, but at some point (like it always seems to in Miami) it all just got away. After being silent almost the whole game on offence, the Bills score a punt return touchdown at 12 minutes, and a regular touchdown at seven minutes, to steal this game (and playoff spot) out from under Miami, right at the buzzer.
I can’t believe it.
A fake punt sees the Chiefs into the playoffs, and a punt return touchdown is the catalyst for the rebirth of the Buffalo Bills. This leaves the poor old Miami Dolphins, perhaps prophetically, left out in the cold again. This time, the Dolphins did not even come up one full game short. More like a half game. The losers of the four way tiebreak for the final three AFC spots. No playoffs.
This fourth quarter from hell causes outrage in Miami. The interception Tua Tagovailoa throws to end this game (and season) is replayed endlessly. He is sure to be moved elsewhere in the offseason. Just like Baker Mayfield in Cleveland, things like this just cause too much baggage. People don’t over it. He’s likely not to be the only change. The Dolphins will go into 2024 looking very different.
As for the four teams that made the playoffs, here is where they stand:
Baltimore Ravens: 13-4
Kansas City Chiefs: 11-6
Cleveland Browns: 11-6
Buffalo Bills: 11-6
At this point, I run out of real events. I don’t know who would win a playoff game between the vaunted Cleveland defence and the sinking Kansas City Chiefs. I don’t know who would take the rematch from 2019 and 2020 between Baltimore and Buffalo. Therefore, this analysis must stop, but how about the stories from the 2023 AFC season?
The Baltimore Ravens went through a playoff scare of their own, falling as low as third at 7-3 in mid-November, but from then on were dominant. Nobody could touch them. In the final month of the season, they pulled away from all the pretenders, and in truth were so far away that they cost themselves some time in the spotlight.
This team does not have any playoff baggage in this alternate timeline, without ever having been put in position to lose to the underqualified 2019 Tennessee Titans. Instead, their playoff losses in the Lamar Jackson era have come exclusively to the Chiefs (2x) and Bills (1x), and are seen as much more acceptable, because everybody loses to the Chiefs and Bills. They even have a playoff win over the Bills in the first round of 2019.
Without this poor playoff reputation, the Ravens would be overwhelming favourites to end Kansas City’s run of AFC championships.
Kansas City themselves are not what they once were, but showed the grit of champions in the final two weeks to dig out of a pretty deep hole they’d dug for themselves. It’s the luck of fools and Chiefs that a team can go from entirely outside the tournament to playing a home playoff game in just two weeks, but that’s what they did. For once in their lives, this team was playing relevant games all the way to the end of a season, and this forced them to pull out their championship stuff just that little bit sooner.
Nobody wanted Cleveland to be here. When I listed them as part of my playoff hopefuls section, I didn’t really mean it. They were there by courtesy, because they made a big QB trade, but did anybody think Cleveland was going to come through and win 11 games? If not for that silly loss in Seattle, this would be a home playoff game, but the most clutch win in team history on the road in Baltimore paved the road for this team to score the most clutch win in team history every week for a five week span encompassing the entirety of December. Wins over Jacksonville and over Houston eliminated those teams from contention, and the Browns took those teams’ spot for themselves. Miami only wishes they could’ve done what Cleveland did. If they could’ve, they’d be here instead.
That brings us to Buffalo. What to say about the Buffalo Bills? This was a season below their (very lofty) standards, but just like Kansas City, they showed championship stuff in digging themselves out of the deep hole they’d created. Josh Allen had one of the best seasons of his career in executing this carry job, and beating the good teams has never been Buffalo’s problem. Adding up the records of all the teams that defeated Buffalo this season, you get more losses than wins, meaning Buffalo needs to work on beating the bad teams, but in the playoffs against the Baltimore Ravens there’s no need to worry about that.
That’s a whale of a four team playoff, but did you notice something?
All the way back at the beginning of the season, I said that we could all predict three of the AFC’s four playoff teams before the season even started. That proved to be the case. Look at them all. Right there in first, second, and fourth, but that isn’t what I want you to note.
What you need to see is that even though that prediction was correct, it didn’t make it boring. That’s the common misconception about small playoffs, that they make everything too boring for all but the very best teams. I vehemently disagree, because all of the Ravens, Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, Texans, and Dolphins were playing relevant games for virtually the entire season, plus the Pittsburgh Steelers somehow finishing close enough to all this to factor into a playoff tiebreak. That’s eight teams. That’s half the conference.
If you remove those eight teams, who else was playing relevant late season games, even under the current format?
One team. Indianapolis.
This is a net loss, because the AFC West was won so quickly. The KC Chiefs did not play a relevant game after mid-November, once their third loss made clear that they were not beating Baltimore to the one seed. Therefore, in terms of teams, there were eight teams playing relevant late season games with the big playoff, and eight gunning for my small playoff. The big playoff people can keep their Indianapolis playing relevant December games. I’ll keep my Kansas City.
For the privilege of trading relevant Kansas City games for relevant Indianapolis games, the big playoff pays us what in return?
Late season win-and-in playoff games? We had that. Awesome underdog stories? We had that. Unqualified teams in playoff games every now and then knocking out the big boys? No. We don’t have that. No league should have that. I personally want to see the great teams play each other. I don’t want to see minnows getting in the way.
I’ll keep asking. The big playoff system shifts the meaningful late season games from being played by the great teams to being played by the mediocre teams, while the great teams either rest starters or pretend home field advantage is of any importance. That’s a downgrade. What do expanded playoffs give us in return for that downgrade?
I’ll wait.
This folks, is why smaller playoffs are good for the game. The awesome underdog stories like Cleveland get more awesome, because they’re less telegraphed. Playoff positions are also never secured. Just look at Kansas City, and comebacks are still possible. Buffalo spent almost the entire season out of playoff position, before getting back in right at the last minute. Cleveland was out of the playoffs for about half the season, before turning it on at the end. Kansas City was out of the four team playoff as late as week 17.
Miami was never out of it at all. Not for a single second all season, but two late season losses meant they fell into a tie, and lost a tiebreaker. What did those two late season losses mean in real life to the Miami Dolphins?
Nothing.
In real life, the meaning of the last six weeks of the AFC season amounted to the Bills and Dolphins swapping who got to play the Chiefs when. The Dolphins got to play them in round one, instead of in round two, and the Bills got the other way around.
That’s it. That’s the meaning of the AFC’s regular season.
Gee whiz. What a story.
In our alternate world, of the four teams occupying the AFC’s playoff positions with six weeks remaining, two did not make it, and Cleveland, KC, and Buffalo all worked themselves to the bone trying to get in, and were rewarded for it. Their fans will remember this month of December forever, especially in Cleveland, but people will always remember when the Chiefs needed a fake punt to save the dynasty. People would remember the Bills winning the final five in a mad dash for the final playoff position.
In real life, none of these teams worked particularly hard for anything. Cleveland’s fifth seed was pretty much set in stone from the middle of November onwards. Everything they did after that was great, but didn’t mean a thing. They could’ve made the playoffs without a couple of these clutch wins. They really didn’t matter. What in my world are remembered as the biggest games in the history of the franchise (against Baltimore, and Jacksonville, and Houston) are in real life not remembered at all.
Kansas City had even less to play for than that. What an exhilarating regular season they had (do you remember anything about it?), and like I said earlier, the Bills did have to make up ground to the playoffs, but it was only one game, and it was done within two weeks. Not exactly an all-time comeback story.
The end of season Sunday night game between Miami and Buffalo in my world was one of the most hyped games of the year. In the real world, it meant nothing, other than who got to play KC first, which is a truly meaningless thing to fight over. I don’t know how much better I can make this argument.
The 2023 AFC featured an epic playoff battle that went right down to the wire featuring the… Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, and Jacksonville Jaguars? No thanks. I’ll take my world, which saw an epic playoff battle between the KC Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Miami Dolphins instead. Great teams playing meaningful regular season games. That should be the goal. Not whatever cobbled mess we have today.
If this story doesn’t convince you that big playoffs are bad, I don’t know what will.
Thanks so much for reading.
Haven't finished reading yet but this is really cool. Even though I know what's going to happen, the smaller playoffs inject a massive amount of stakes into every game. Instead of all these teams except the Jags making, now only one of them can. It is also cool as a Brown fan as these games are recontextualized. Games are more meaningful now.
Also, congrats on your first What-If