Fluke or Contender? 2009 New York Jets

The 2009 New York Jets came out of nowhere to shock the NFL world, but were they for real? Were they a fluke? Let's get into it.

The Rex Ryan New York Jets existed at a fulcrum point in NFL history. In the years immediately before they came into being, 2003 New England, 2003 Carolina, 2004 Atlanta, 2006 Chicago, 2007 San Diego, 2008 Pittsburgh, and 2008 Baltimore had all overcome truly bad offences (defined here as negative EPA/Play) to reach as far as the conference championship game. In the years since, that has only been done twice, by 2011 San Francisco, and 2015 Denver.

In the middle of this changing of the guard sit the 2009 (and 2010, but I’ll get to them later) New York Jets, who overcame very bad offence to reach the AFC championship game two years in a row, in the last two years that was really possible in the NFL.

Because of this lack of offence, these Jets and their playoff glory tend to get remembered as a fluke, but is this true? As stated above, great offence was not a requirement to be a great team in the way that it is now. I will not penalise the Jets for not winning the modern way. They won. I will simply be analysing whether these Jets were luckier than good or better than lucky. Let's see.

The 2009 New York Jets finished the season with -0.170 EPA/Play allowed on defence (1st), including an otherworldly -0.218 EPA/Play allowed against the pass (1st). To put that in perspective, they were further above second place Buffalo (-0.119 EPA/Play allowed vs the pass) than Buffalo were above twelfth place Indianapolis.

I think we are already arriving at the part of this analysis that people find hard to understand. These defensive numbers are no longer possible in the modern NFL. Due to a combination of rule changes and improved passing schemes in the years since, the league leaders in 2022 were -0.112 EPA/Play (SF) and -0.087 EPA/Pass (PHI) allowed.

In the years since 2009, there have been only two defences who are a match for the 2009 Jets. These are the 2019 Patriots and the 2017 Jaguars. Both are remembered as all time great defences. Therefore, the 2009 Jets defence goes in the all time category. This is a striking start to our analysis.

With such a great defence, how can the Jets possibly be remembered as a fluke?

I'll tell you. The Jets won nine games in 2009, largely due to their horrendous -0.06 EPA/Play offence (22nd) led by rookie QB Mark Sanchez. 2009 was not the same offensive era we're living in right now, by a long shot, but this is still awful.

An extremely odd and uncommon combination of an elite (4th ranked) rushing offence hindered by a -0.152 EPA/Play passing offence, the 2009 Jets were always doomed to underperform. Poor quarterback play is very hard to overcome, even in 2009, and the Jets had a lot of poor quarterback play.

Mark Sanchez personally generated -0.095 EPA/Play in 2009, with a -5.5 CPOE. Luckily for him (and Jets fans everywhere), he only had to touch the ball 428 times. Roughly 550 was typical for a 16 game starter in 2009, so the negative value he generated was kept to a minimum most of the time, but he still singlehandedly caused these Jets that should've been easy Super Bowl contenders based on the strength of their defence to go through a playoff dogfight for the last two months of the year.

I'll provide a great example. In week six the Jets were playing Buffalo and were up 13-3 at the half. Due to New York's all time defence, in conjunction with the middling 2009 Buffalo offence, this ten point deficit is almost insurmountable. NFLfastR's Win Probability model gave the Bills a five percent chance of winning. Then, in the second half, Mark Sanchez happened.

On the Jets' first drive of the second half Mark Sanchez throws an interception to give the Bills the ball on the Jets' 43. They're held to a field goal. On the Jets' next drive, after 3 successful rush plays and one completed pass, Mark throws another interception, this time on the Buffalo 26. The Jets defence is unable to hold for the only time all game, and all of a sudden the insurmountable deficit has turned into a 13-13 tie in only 12 minutes.

The Jets' next drive, now into the fourth quarter, would go all the way to the Buffalo 34 without a single completed pass from Sanchez before he'd be intercepted again, for the third time in a row. After the Bills were stopped, the Jets got the ball back and had another okay drive going behind only one completed Sanchez pass before Mark took a 16 yard sack and the Jets were forced to punt.

We are now at 4 minutes left in the fourth. Mark Sanchez has completed three passes so far this half, and gifted Buffalo three interceptions plus a drive killing sack. The same Jets who had a 95% chance of winning at the half now have to pray for Buffalo to miss a game winning field goal (which they do) just to limp into overtime.

In overtime the Jets get the ball first, and Mark actually throws a 22 yard pass to Braylon Edwards to put the Jets in a great position to win with a field goal, but these are the Jets so the hold is bobbled and this miserable game has to continue. The teams then spend a few possessions doing the three and out dance before the Jets finally get the ball with 7:14 left on their own 46. Needing only a field goal to win, Mark Sanchez is instead intercepted again without completing a single pass on this drive either. Buffalo would take the ball from here and go score a field goal and win.

Do you see what I mean? I know I've cherrypicked his worst game all season, but Mark Sanchez took the Jets' 95% chance at victory and turned it into a situation where they needed herculean play from their defence (which they got) and missed field goal luck at the end of regulation (which they got) just to get to overtime, where they still lost. The Jets undoubtedly would've won this game had Mark not touched the ball at all in the second half, given how good their offence was doing without any contribution from him, but they lost.

The Jets did find a formula though. One that would lead them to success as the season would go on.

In the first 11 weeks of the 2009 season, the New York Jets were 4-6. They'd committed 23 total turnovers in only ten games, and generated -0.07 EPA/Play as an offence. The defence was obviously top tier, but they couldn't overcome the offence's woes. This was a bad football team

In the final six games, the Jets went 5-1. They committed only seven total turnovers and generated -0.043 EPA/Play as an offence. Make no mistake. This is still very bad offence, but without all the turnovers the defence could cover for them. This team was now a force.

What was this fancy new formula the Jets used to such great success? It's simple. They stopped passing.

In their first ten games of the season, the Jets let Mark Sanchez average 26.5 pass attempts per game, including an unbelievable 29 in the above mentioned horrendous game against Buffalo. In their final six games, the Jets averaged only 20.66 pass attempts per game. The one time the Jets let the horse have his head, week 15 against Atlanta, Mark got 32 pass attempts. He threw three interceptions and the Jets lost. They knew better than to try that again.

With this change to the new low risk low turnover style, the Jets defence gave up 15 points only once, and led the Jets on a comeback all the way to the first AFC wild card spot. Their magnum opus was leading the Jets into a must win situation at 14-0 Indianapolis and holding them to just 15 points in a 29-15 Jets win.

The players from the Colts have retroactively labelled this 2009 Colts season as 'undefeated until we chose to lose,' but I think that does a huge disservice to what the Jets accomplished here. While it is true that Peyton Manning was taken out of the game at 5:36 of the third with the Colts winning 15-10, it's a long shot to say the Colts had that game won. At the time he came out, the Win Probability model gave the Colts a 65% chance of winning. Not exactly overwhelming odds of victory. Jets fans had seen earlier this season two different 80% or above chances at victory go up in smoke. In hindsight, knowing that the Jets would go on to score every time they touched the ball after this, this game was nowhere near over. This is more like a shootout we never got to see rather than one team gifting the win to another.

Would the Colts have won this game and gone on to be undefeated if Peyton had stayed in the game? Probably. About 65 percent of the time they would, but to all the Jets fans out there, it's not your fault who the opposing team's QB was. Your QB was Mark Sanchez. Save no tears for the team with Peyton Manning as their starter. Your team went into Indianapolis and took their undefeated season away. Don't let anybody take that away from you.

So, now that the two parts of the Jets' season are over, the Jets are 9-7 and the first wild card team in the AFC. This is great right? Not really no, because even this is misleading. How can a 9-7 record be misleading? I'll tell you. The Jets' point differential that season was plus 112. That's a point differential an 11 win team should have. A more in depth and accurate analysis of their EPA compared to their EPA allowed still yields an expected win total of 10.61. This was an eleven win team masquerading as a nine win team, and they were about to prove it to everybody.

The wild card playoff game between the Jets and the Bengals was perhaps the least 2009 Jets of all the 2009 Jets games. With the rush attack faltering, and the Jets trailing 7-0 into the second quarter, New York needs a hero to go win them this playoff game. Cut to Mark Sanchez.

Oh no. Don't they remember what happened in Buffalo? Can we try Kellen Clemens instead?

For the first time in his young career, Mark Sanchez would go out and prove himself. He would generate 0.84 EPA/Play in his 15 passes for a total of 12.6 expected points added in his first career playoff game. He was finally showing flashes of the man the Jets drafted 5th overall. If this was in Mark Sanchez, if he could consistently pick up the ball and run with it when his teammates faltered around him, the sky was the limit for the 2010s New York Jets. As we know, this would turn out not to be the case, but it happened today. The Jets' legendary defence would hold the Bengals to -0.05 EPA/Play, and the Jets would beat Cincinnati 24-14, and move onto San Diego.

In San Diego, the Jets were faced with a much bigger challenge. Their opponent would be the 13-3 Chargers and their number one offence, led by the best QB in the league (1st in EPA/Play; 2nd in CPOE; 2nd in ANY/A) and future hall of famer Philip Rivers. The Chargers had a point differential of plus 134, and an expected win total of 10.91. Recall the Jets had 112 and 10.61 respectively, so in hindsight this was not as big of a mismatch as everybody thought it was, with one exception. The New York Jets' starting QB was still rookie Mark Sanchez.

I know I just got done explaining how Sanchez was finally coming out and playing better, and he did have a great game against Cincinnati, but this is still the same Mark Sanchez that singlehandedly cost the Jets a win in Buffalo three months ago. The same Mark Sanchez that threw 20 interceptions this season. The same Mark Sanchez who generated negative points every time he touched the ball all year. The same Mark Sanchez whose touches had to be cut in order to save the Jets' season. The same Mark Sanchez who, in spite of how good he played, was trusted to touch the ball only 15 times in his first playoff start.

If rookie QB Mark Sanchez could beat the best QB in the league in 2008 and 2009 to take the Jets back to Indianapolis, it would be (without a word of exaggeration) the biggest QB deficit overcome in a playoff game in NFL history. Think of any playoff upset you want. Think of Wade Wilson over Joe Montana. Think of Vince Ferragamo over Roger Staubach. Think of Tony Eason over Dan Marino. Think of Tom Brady over Kurt Warner. Mark Sanchez over Philip Rivers would trump all of them.

On this date: January 17, 2010, the 2009 New York Jets defence would cement themselves as legends.

Coming into San Diego as nine point road underdogs (an unbelievable spread by playoff standards), the Jets offence would struggle mightily. Through the first quarter, the Jets could generate zero first downs, and ran only nine offensive plays, compared to San Diego's 18. However, the score was still 0-0.

At 12:22 of the second quarter, the dam would break.

The Chargers' league leading offence had gotten the ball at 14:13 of the second at their own 31 and had taken just five plays and under two minutes to put the Jets down 7-0. If this were any other team, a 7-0 second quarter deficit wouldn't seem so bad, but this isn't any other team. This is the 2009 New York Jets. This 7-0 deficit is a catastrophe. The Win Probability model knows it. It gives the Jets only a 16% chance to win from this position.

Here's the thing. You can make predictions about NFL games. You can run simulations that account for everything, from wind speed to quarterback quality to how slippery the field surface is to differences in performance between home and road to whatever you want. What these simulations cannot account for is an all time great defence that does not want to lose.

The San Diego Chargers, with their number one offence, and their best QB in the league, and their home field advantage, and their nine point spread, and their 84% chance of winning, won't score a meaningful point again in the 2009 season. By the time they do score, at 2:20 of the fourth quarter, the Jets recover the ensuing onside kick, and the Chargers never see the ball again. The Jets had taken the league's best offence and held it to a negative EPA/Play. In a playoff game.

I'll repeat myself. The 2009 Jets were an all time great defence.

The elite rushing offence of the regular season was again nowhere to be seen, replaced by one that could only generate -0.07 EPA/Play on a 31% success rate against a below average San Diego defence. The pass game that was so good last week was nowhere either. It would generate -0.12 EPA/Play this game. None of that mattered. The Jets were still going back to Indianapolis for a rematch. The Jets had taken the Colts' zero the last time they were here. Can they take their Super Bowl too?

Despite their earlier win in Indianapolis over these same Colts, the Jets were coming into this game as prohibitive eight point underdogs (another extremely wide spread), but this game is also not such a big mismatch looking back on it with modern eyes. The Colts' point differential in 2009 was 109. That is actually less than the Jets' 112. The Colts' expected win total was 11.77, compared to New York's 10.61. Make no mistake. This isn't San Diego. The Colts are a better football team than the Jets, but I have my doubts the spread would be this wide if the game were to be played tomorrow instead of in 2009.

With all that said, if I told you Mark Sanchez would be forced to drop back 30 times in this game, then what would the spread be? What would the over/under on interceptions be? Recall, the last time Mark had to drop back that many times he and his three interceptions led the Jets to an ugly 10-7 loss against a just okay Atlanta team. I doubt the spread would be as low as eight points if this knowledge was known before the game, but here goes.

With the rush offence yet again nowhere to be seen (-0.23 EPA/Play), the hopes and dreams of Jets fans everywhere rested on Mark Sanchez, and their all time great defence. I'll give you one guess which one is going to come through in this clutch moment.

In the biggest game of his career, Mark Sanchez would put the Jets on his back as best he could. He led the Jets on three scoring drives (plus one missed field goal) in five possessions to take the Jets into the half with a 17-13 lead. The Jets' defence had just held the league's best offence and the league's leader in EPA/Play to zero points for 40 straight minutes in San Diego. If they could do the same to the league's second best offence, and the league's second best in EPA/Play in Indianapolis for just 30 minutes, they would be going to the Super Bowl as champions of the AFC.

In the second half, the glass slipper broke for the 2009 New York Jets.

After yet another missed field goal coming out of the half, the Jets were never able to get across the 50 yard line again. The Jets' all time great defence allowed Peyton Manning and the Colts to score all but one time they touched the ball in the second half. Everything fell apart for New York, and they lost this game 30-17.

Though they came up short of the ultimate goal, the 2009 New York Jets took a team with a 4-6 record, an untenable offence, and a rookie QB who couldn't help but give wins to the opposition, and turned it into a team that went into Indianapolis to end an undefeated season, and went back with a real chance of winning the AFC championship game. This deserves to be commended, but the question remains: fluke or contender?

My verdict? Contender. Allow me to explain.

The weak QB play is really hard to get over. It is, but look how these Jets performed in spite of that. They ended the season with a 112 point differential (7th; 4th in the AFC) and an expected win total of 10.61 (10th; 5th in the AFC). These numbers are both better than each of the participants in the 2021 Super Bowl. Take that for what you will. This team was good enough to be a division winner at least. Probably better. With a little bit of good luck, this team could've feasibly won 12 games. The Chargers won 13 with a similar expected win total.

Additionally, the team scored wins over teams quarterbacked by Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub and Carson Palmer over the course of the season. They proved they could beat playoff calibre opposition with Mark Sanchez as their guy. They just lost at the very last hurdle.

In summation, the 2009 New York Jets absolutely do not deserve to be looked back on as a fluke. This team was a legitimate Super Bowl contender hiding in the shell of a nine win wild card team. They deserve the love that Jets fans heap on them.

Think about this story the next time you see a 2021 Titans or 2020 Chiefs or any other number one seed that has a lower expected win total than the 2009 New York Jets. You never know when the real contenders might be lurking right under their nose.