His Year: Chad Pennington 2002

A brief insight into one of the most forgotten elite seasons in NFL history.

If I told you there was an AFC East QB drafted in 2000 who took over for an injured starter and went on to be the best QB in the NFL in leading a mediocre team to the playoffs, where in his first playoff start he would comprehensively outplay Peyton Manning, who would you think I was talking about?

Hint: it's not who you think it is.

I'll wait.

The man who did that was named Chad Pennington, and he was a Jets' first round draft pick in 2000. Remembered for being the only first round QB in a draft containing Tom Brady, in conjunction with being drafted to New York, Chad Pennington was doomed to have a career of being persistently over scrutinized and underappreciated. This has come to pass in the years since his retirement, as in 2023 NFL discourse Pennington comes up exclusively in three scenarios: 1) to meme on the Jets for not taking Tom Brady; 2) to meme on the Jets for selecting Brett Favre over him only for him to go and win Comeback Player of the Year for the Dolphins, or for more casual fans; 3) "Who was the last good QB the Jets have had?"

I'm here to tell you that Chad Pennington does not deserve this slander, and deserves to be remembered more like RG3 or Michael Vick (I'll get to them in this series). Much like theirs, Chad's is a story of massive potential that was never quite maximized, largely due to a wrist injury from the 2003 preseason that forever altered his throwing form. That was 2003, but before all that, before the injuries and all the memes and all the Jets' success in the years immediately after they let him go, he had 2002. He had his year.

The Jets were coming into 2002 with Vinny Testaverde as their starter, but his seat was hot as a volcano. This was going to be the third season since the Jets drafted Chad, and they were looking for a reason to get him in, and in the fourth game of the season, they got their chance. Vinny went down with a shoulder injury that was only going to keep him out for a few weeks, but the Jets never looked back.

At the time of Chad's first start, the Jets were 1-3 and had been outscored 133-50 in the first four games. 50 points in four games with an EPA/Play of -0.293 was unacceptable, so Testaverde's injury provided the perfect opportunity for a change. The Jets' opponent in this first start would be the Kansas City Chiefs, who were coming into the game with the league's best offence, led by MVP frontrunners QB Trent Green and HB Priest Holmes, but also the league's worst defence, sporting a 0.148 EPA/Play allowed four games into the season. This is a good situation to throw a rookie into, and Chad would deliver.

This game would go down to the wire, featuring four lead changes and two ties, and Chad would go 22 for 29 and throw for 237 yards and generated 0.16 EPA/Play out of an offence that had been running -0.293 so far in the year. This is outstanding stuff from a QB in his first NFL start, and gave the Jets a chance to win. Unfortunately, Chad was outdueled by Trent Green, and the Chiefs scored the game winning touchdown with 37 seconds left.

The Jets were now 1-4, but had finally shown signs of life on offence, and Chad was about to have his NFL coming out party. Chad's second start was to come against Daunte Culpepper and the Minnesota Vikings. In order to get his first win, Chad would have to go up against yet another one of the best QBs of 2001.

Hampered by coach Herm Edwards' astounding 27 first down rush calls for a rush offence that generated -0.23 EPA/Play this game, Chad was electric. He went 24 for 29 for 324 yards passing and generated 0.66(!) EPA/Play. The Jets won this game 20-7, and would've won by more if they would've thrown more, but that was past. Chad Pennington was now a winning NFL starter, and had had a great NFL game.

The Jets were now 2-4, and looking up, but they were already three games behind the 5-2 Miami Dolphins, and after the first bad game of Chad's career in a week 8 loss to the Cleveland Browns, they were even further behind. The Jets were 2-5, and facing down a slate of games that were all must-win behind a QB that has played really well, but still has only three career starts to his name. There's no way this can go well, right? Chad was about to prove everyone wrong. After a win in San Diego over the Chargers, it was time to face Miami, and their number 4 ranked defence.

Coming into this week 10 game. The Jets were 4-5, and had already lost to the Dolphins 30-3 under the Testaverde administration, so this game was a must win. What resulted was the worst game of Chad's year. He went 17 of 27 for only 167 and generated only 0.11 EPA/Play. The plus side? The Jets won this game 13-10, with Chad leading them on a go ahead field goal drive with 2:17 left. Despite having the worst game of his young career so far, Chad now has his first game winning drive under his belt.

Now 4-5, The Jets were back to life in the playoff hunt, but still needed help from the 5-4 Dolphins.

After another outstanding stretch from Chad in wins over Buffalo and Detroit in which he went a combined 36 for 50 for 401 passing yards and generated a combined 0.302 EPA/Play (these are modern numbers folks, he was doing this in 2002, in his first year as a starter), it was time to roll into Oakland to face the man Chad was chasing, the best QB in the league, the 2002 NFL MVP, Rich Gannon.

Coming into this game, since Week 4 when Chad took over, the Jets have had the 3rd best offence in the league. They were coming to Oakland to face the second ranked offence, the Oakland Raiders. This game had all the makings of a shootout, and Chad delivered again. He went toe to toe with Rich Gannon, again not helped by his middling rush offence (-0.29 EPA/Play on 11 plays), generating 0.31 EPA/Play compared to Gannon's 0.22. This was an even matchup between a 38 year old league MVP and 26 year old fresh faced Chad Pennington. The Jets came back from a ten point fourth quarter deficit to be down six points with the ball on the last drive with one minute left. Chad was able to get the ball to the Oakland 35 in 30 seconds, but could get no further. The Jets lost this game 26-20, and fell to 6-6, despite another outstanding performance from Chad against the very best.

After a 1-1 stretch, the Jets were 7-7, and had to win both of their last two games for their playoff lives. Who was next on the schedule? The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots in New England, led by fellow 2000 draftee Tom Brady, who were 8-6, and desperately wanted that same playoff spot the Jets were going for. The Patriots came in as favourites, having beaten the Testaverde Jets 44-7 earlier in the year in New York. However, on this day: December 22, 2002, in what can be considered Chad Pennington's first playoff game, he played like the MVP he could've been, thoroughly outplaying Tom Brady to the tune of 23 completions on 33 attempts for 285 yards and 3 touchdowns against no interceptions and 0.4 EPA/Play generated in a 30-17 Jets victory.

The 8-7 New York Jets had one more hurdle to jump on their way to the 2002 playoffs. How can it possibly be any more difficult than last week? Their opponent was the 12-3 Green Bay Packers, coming to New York to secure their first round bye. This was a matchup between Chad Pennington and another one of the best QBs of his era, Brett Favre. After the emotional high of winning essentially a playoff game last week, how can Chad and the Jets come out on top against the NFC's best team?

This is Chad Pennington's year. That's how.

In the final game of a season where every game has been must win since week 8, he drops 17 completions on 24 attempts for 198 yards and 4 touchdowns and generates 0.65 EPA/Play to knock Brett Favre out (the Jets were so far ahead the Packers put the backup in), take the Packers' first round bye away, and thrust the Jets into the 2002 playoffs.

This is the stuff of legends. This is the stuff they write movies about. This is the best game of Chad Pennington's career. In light of future events between these two QBs, I'm sure Chad gets an extra wide smile going back and watching this one.

So the Jets are in the playoffs, but have faced a murderers row of QBs just to get here. They've played must win games against Drew Bledsoe, Jake Plummer, Rich Gannon, Tom Brady, and Brett Favre. Now that they've made the dance, they get to face the final boss.

The Jets went up against the Indianapolis Colts and Peyton Manning in the first round of the 2002 playoffs. Although coming off a down year in 2002, Peyton is still easily a top 5 QB, and has been since 1999. The Jets are combatting him with 12 game starter Chad Pennington. He's beaten everybody in front of him to get here, but these are the playoffs, where great stories come to end.

This is Chad Pennington's year, and he's not done yet.

For the third week in a row, Chad Pennington took an all time great QB, and ripped him apart. He completed 19 of 25 passes for 222 yards and three touchdowns, and generated 0.46 points per play as the Jets beat the Colts 41-0. This is one of the best games in a QB's first playoff start in NFL history, and it was accomplished by Chad Pennington.

We all know how this story ends. In the next round the Jets finally run out of steam facing their (essentially) fourth playoff game against a fourth elite QB in a row, and they lose their rematch against Rich Gannon and the Raiders, but the ending is unimportant compared to what Chad Pennington accomplished in his year 2002.

Chad took an offence that had been generating -0.293 EPA/Play and turned it into an offence that had only one game (Miami) where it generated negative expected points and ranked third in the NFL. In his first 12 games as a starter, he generated 0.269 expected points per play (EPA/Play) and had a 7.8 Completion Percentage over Expected (CPOE), to go along with 7.49 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A). To put these numbers in perspective, here are those same numbers for the league MVP Rich Gannon, respectively: 0.208, 6.9, 6.95. Here are those same numbers for 2022 Joe Burrow: 0.165, 2.7, 6.76. You see where I'm going here? If Chad Pennington would've started every game in 2002, he would've been league MVP. He put up numbers that would make him an elite QB today, in 2022. The Jets finally had their QB of the future.

Unfortunately, in a 2003 preseason game against the Giants, Chad would fracture his left (non-throwing) wrist, which would force him to alter his throwing mechanics in such a way that he would never again be able to throw the ball the way he did in 2002. As his career went on, Chad and Jets fans would have to watch all the teams and quarterbacks Chad beat in 2002 go onto Super Bowls and Championship games from the outside.

The Jets and Chad Pennington were never again able to compete like they did in 2002, but they will always have 2002. Chad Pennington's year.