His Year: Colin Kaepernick 2012

In the wake of his political statements, Colin Kaepernick as a football player has been forgotten. No more. Let's talk about Colin's 2012.

I'm going to make a deal with you. I'm about to talk about a very controversial human. I've avoided it for a long time now. In fact, I've avoided it for so long that people have started to notice that I'm avoiding it. It's beginning to stretch the credibility of a series based around one year wonders that it doesn't include this season, so my hand has been forced. I'm going to talk about Colin Kaepernick in 2012.

In a football sense, this is a great story for me to tell. In the wake of everything that's happened since 2012, this season, and the greatness of it, has been nearly entirely forgotten. Additionally, it features yet another player getting his first chance to start, and making the most of it, the ultimate His Year trope.

On the field, this story is right in my wheelhouse, but I have no interest in getting political. In my Michael Vick article, I expressed my opinion that American society is not fond of successful young black males, so they get excessively punished for things. My opinion on that matter remains the same. You needn't be a Rhodes scholar to apply the same logic to the Colin Kaepernick situation, and that's all you're going to get out of me.

From here on the agreement is this: I'm going to ignore all of the riff raff that will come, and exclusively focus on the on-field play of Colin Kaepernick. If you can accept that deal and take this ride with me, I promise there's a great story to come that's been wholly overshadowed over the past ten years.

Without further ado, let's go back to 2012.

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In the 2012 offseason, the San Francisco 49ers are in a weird spot.

They’ve just made the NFC Championship game, and truthfully should have won it, if not for an infamous collapse. This seems well and good, but the 49ers played way over their heads in 2011, and everybody knows it. They made the final four despite a very bad (negative EPA/Play) offence, something only the 2015 Denver Broncos have done since, and these 49ers were no 2015 Broncos defensively. They finished 2011 with just 10.94 expected wins, but converted those into 13 real ones, and beat a New Orleans Saints team quite a bit better than them in a barn burner of a Divisional round game.

Barn burners are great for us fans, but they are very far from convincing wins. In all, it took a lot of luck for the 2011 49ers to get where they got.

I'm going into all this detail to explain how a team that's just made the NFC Championship game (and should have won it) can be so internally unhappy with how things have gone. They got so close, but remain so far away from their ultimate goal. The primary reason for this, in the eyes of both the organisation and the fans, is their incumbent QB. Alex Smith.

Drafted first overall by the 49ers in 2005, Alex has mostly been awful, including (in my opinion) the worst season for any QB in the whole play tracking era in his rookie year of 2005. The choice to switch at the last minute from selecting Aaron Rodgers first overall to selecting Alex Smith has been endlessly derided and made fun of over the course of the last seven years, and fans, pundits, Rodgers himself (a lifelong 49er fan), and everybody else has never allowed either Smith or the 49ers organisation to forget that they could have had Aaron instead of him.

Nevertheless, that first overall draft pedigree has been sticky, and difficult to move on from. As a result, going into 2012, seven years after initially drafting him, Alex Smith is still here. Prior to 2011, there hadn’t even really been any attempt made to replace him. Only one other QB had even been drafted by the Niners in the interim (Nate Davis, sixth round in 2009. Not exactly a blue chipper), but in 2011, all of that changed when the 49ers traded up to select Colin Kaepernick with the 36th pick of the draft.

36th overall is not very far away from being a first round draft pick, and to get Colin the team had to trade three picks, so he was a big investment, but he was also quite raw, and not ready to start NFL games, so the 49ers went into 2011 still riding their former first overall draft pick.

We know how that went. Smith responded with the best season of his career. The 49ers made the NFC Championship game, but once he got there, Smith failed on four potential game winning drives in a row at the end of the game, and lost it.

This is beginning to get awkward. Alex has yet again made himself difficult to replace, without actually doing much to impress anybody. The irritating irreplaceability of Alex Smith would become a career trope for him, and will likely get an article of its own once offseason time comes around. This time though, he's doing this dance with a very highly drafted QB on the bench, which can't make top brass very happy.

Even with the blue chip QB prospect Colin Kaepernick behind him, Alex has more or less tied the hands of the organisation. They're going to go at it with him again in 2012, no matter how little they want to.

As 2012 begins, this gets even more awkward. In week one, Smith takes the 49ers into Green Bay, outplays Aaron Rodgers, and walks out with a convincing win, in one of the defining performances of his career. Then, in week two, he does it again against the not to be overlooked early 2010s version of Matthew Stafford. In typical Alex Smith fashion, week three is a total dud in a baffling loss to Christian Ponder and the Minnesota Vikings, but weeks four and five are easy wins also.

At this point it's becoming clear to all that Alex Smith is here to spoil the Kaepernick coronation party by having the best season of his career. Again. The same thing he did last season.

We've seen this before with highly drafted QBs. There's a reason you've never heard of people like John Beck, Marques Tuiasosopo, or Kellen Clemens. All of these QBs were drafted high in the second round in the 2000s, only for the incumbent to respond with the best season of their career, rendering the new QB prospect moot almost instantly.

I contend that with how Alex Smith has been playing to start 2012, the same thing had a real chance of happening to Colin. We know due to his post-San Francisco career in Kansas City that this is the level of play Alex Smith is going to be sustaining from now on. I don’t know what’s changed, but he is much better now than he used to be. He will maintain this level of play for the next five years.

There is a lot of baggage that comes with Alex Smith in San Francisco. There's been a lot of broken hearts and bad feelings between the two sides over the past seven years. It's possible that due to all this, this relationship was doomed to fail, and if not at this hurdle, it would’ve found another hurdle, but I believe it's also possible that if Alex continues to play this well (as we know he will), all of that could’ve been mended.

If that’s the case, you and I would’ve never heard the name Colin Kaepernick as anything other than a long-term backup to a very successful Alex Smith era in San Francisco. This His Year article would be about a different player, and the Smith draft pick would be remembered a lot more fondly in San Francisco.

Unfortunately for Alec, the world doesn't always work like that. That would've been a great redemption story for Alex Smith, but there's an even better story lurking just under the surface that just needed a chance to be let out, and in a week ten game against the St. Louis Rams, it gets its chance.

This is a weird game. The 6-2 49ers are hosting the 3-5 Rams, but we fall into a quick 14-0 hole, as the Niner defence (like many before them) can do nothing with Steven Jackson and the Rams' rushing attack. On the ensuing SF drive, there's an Alex Smith scramble at 1:36 of the first quarter that features a horrendous hit the non-sliding QB, that we now know gives Alex a concussion.

Not being in the era of concussion spotters yet, he finishes this drive and even caps it off with a touchdown pass, but upon seeing him on their sideline, the team cannot let him go back out there again.

Alex will not return.

It's time to finally see what Colin Kaepernick can do.

What he can do is get two first downs and then punt on his first NFL drive, without a single completed pass. A quick three and out by the Rams gets the ball right back, and this time Colin does at least get a pass completion, but still no first downs, as the 49ers have to punt again. This takes us into halftime facing a 14-7 deficit.

With the Rams getting the ball coming out of half, San Francisco doesn't see it again until 10:49 of the third, where Colin is able to complete one solitary pass for one solitary first down before the inevitable punt. From here, everybody on the offence gets a nice long break, as the Rams take almost nine full minutes to go down the field and score a field goal to drop us into a 17-7 hole.

Perhaps this extended break helped things, as once we finally get off the sideline, we seem to have figured things out a little bit.

A 20 yard pass to Mario Manningham gets the offence rolling, and before we know it we're all the way to the St. Louis 24 without seeing so much as a third down, but the optimism dies quickly when Colin takes a killer 12 yard sack to push the drive to third and 18 all the way from the 36. What was looking so promising now may not even result in a field goal.

This is an important play for a young man getting his first NFL action. Alex Smith is out this game with a concussion, but he’s still the man that took this team to the NFC Championship last year. Every time a backup QB takes the field is a chance for him to steal the starting spot for good, but in this chance against the Rams, Colin has been struggling. He won’t take the starting spot this way, especially when he’s just significantly hindered the chances of one of SF’s only solid possessions all day. If Colin wants to paint the picture that he’s the rightful starter of this team, it’s imperative that he dig his team out of this third and 18 hole.

Colin may have something at the NFL level after all.

He stands in despite the pressure, taking a hit to throw a completion to Vernon Davis that gets 17 of the yards back. A Frank Gore rush on fourth and one gets the first down, and the offence goes back on the easy march it'd been on before the bad sack. Two plays later the 49ers are in the end zone after a wonderful Kaepernick designed run for a TD (seriously, go back and watch it), the deficit is narrowed to 17-14, and it gets even better from here.

The ensuing kickoff is fumbled, recovered by San Francisco. One Frank Gore rush gets the 49ers back into the end zone, and out of nowhere a 17-7 deficit has become a 21-17 lead.

It only took 19 seconds to score 14 points, but we are not out of the woods yet. Our defence still can't do anything with Steven Jackson, and the Rams take another seven minutes to go down the field and score a touchdown, leaving Colin and the Niners stuck with a 24-21 deficit with just 1:03 left in the fourth quarter.

For his first real action as an NFL QB, Colin is certainly not being handed anything easily. The St. Louis Rams will finish the 2012 season with the NFL's 11th ranked defence, so despite their 3-5 record making this not a very difficult opponent in theory, this will not be an easy two minute drill to run.

Getting the ball on his own 25, the drive goes as follows: 19 yard scramble, four yard completion, ten yard scramble, 13 yard completion, nine yard Frank Gore rush, and an eight yard completion. If you're keeping score, that leaves us at the 15 yard line with 11 seconds to go. We do take one shot at the end zone, but it falls incomplete, and the game tying field goal sends us to overtime tied at 24.

Welcome to the NFL Colin Kaepernick.

The Rams are not an easy defence to score on (as Colin has been showing all day), but he made that look easy. At last the defence gets a stop to begin the overtime period, and now it's Colin's time to show that he can go win an NFL game.

Starting at our own 40, we immediately get into Ram territory with a Kaepernick to Michael Crabtree 11 yard completion. After two Frank Gore rushes comes a 14 yard designed Kaepernick rush to get to the St Louis 25. From here, being in easy field goal range, Jim Harbaugh pretty much shuts it down, calling off the dogs on offence, and immediately gets a lesson on why you don't do that, as David Akers misses the 42 yard game winning field goal try, and this game has to continue.

After the Rams commit a Delay of Game penalty to blank their game winning field goal, Colin gets the ball again, with another chance to win, but lightning cannot strike three times. We go three and out, and never see the ball again. St Louis cannot do anything either, so this game ends in a 24-24 tie.

As they say, a tie is like kissing your sister. It doesn't do any good for anybody, and this game was not pretty. The only pretty things that happened today came courtesy of a concussed Alex Smith. Look at the disparity between the two San Francisco QBs:

Colin did not play badly. He just didn't play well. Nowhere near as well as Alex did in his one quarter of action, but do take note that there is also no purple (the colour that denotes below average) in Colin’s stat line. This was a perfectly okay performance, and out of a second year player with no NFL starts under his belt, against a quality (if not spectacular) 2012 St. Louis defence, I think the San Francisco fans will accept okay. There is no problem grading on a curve against the St. Louis Rams, but with who is coming up next week, okay will not be good enough.

Alex Smith will not be cleared in time to come back for week 11, so it's going to be Colin under centre when week 11 sees the 6-2-1 San Francisco 49ers hosting the 7-2 Chicago Bears for a Monday Night Football showdown for dominance in the race for the NFC's final first round bye (8-1 Atlanta has a death grip on the other one).

What a situation for Colin Kaepernick's first career NFL start.

This is certainly not the spot the 49ers wanted to get Colin into. The Bears are the league's very best defence in 2012, and not by a little bit either. The Bears rank first in the NFL with -0.143 EPA/Play allowed. The Cardinals rank second with -0.095. This translates to a 172 EPA Allowed+. That’s the eighth best defence since the turn of the millennium.

I take back what I said before, to restate it with even more emphasis. There is not a worse spot in the entire NFL in 2012 to get a player making his first start into. There are few worse spots in the history of the NFL to put a player making his first start into. This is the same core defence that carried the Bears to the NFC Championship game just two years ago in 2010, and the Niners have been forced into playing against it in primetime, with a lot on the line, starting Colin Kaepernick. A man in his first career NFL start.

Life, especially in the NFL, is unfair. Without fail, everybody will face unfair circumstances in this line of work, but some are more unfair than others, and this ranks high on that list. Imagine a QB making his first start against the Legion of Boom. How do you think he would do? That’s not all that different from the situation Colin is being placed into.

By all rights, he should fail. There is no reason he should be able to succeed in this environment, but as I’ve always said, the true greats in this game are the ones that can take their unfair circumstances, and twist them to their advantage.

Welcome to Colin Kaepernick's Year.

San Francisco gets the ball to begin the game, and we make the most of it, with Colin completing passes of 23, 22, and 12 yards to get all the way to the Chicago 14 before settling for a field goal. Interestingly, when Chicago punts away their possession in response, MNF commentator Mike Tirico says "punting is going to be a big deal tonight."

Not quite Mike.

Against by far the best defence in the NFL, SF's first four touches result (in order) in field goal, touchdown, touchdown, field goal. In total on those four drives, we see third down just four times. It’s domination. We pull out a 20-0 halftime lead, and this battle for NFC supremacy is over already. We reach a 100 percent estimated Win Probability (according to NFLFastR) at 11:12 of the third quarter, when we score yet another touchdown to pull a 27-0 lead, and from here Jim Harbaugh calls off the attack. It'll eventually end up a 32-7 win, and Colin Kaepernick has without doubt proven he belongs in the NFL.

Last week against the Rams may have been thoroughly unimpressive, but that has been entirely erased from everybody’s memory by this Monday Night Football game. What can you even say about this? Colin, in his first career start, faced down the league's best defence, and hung 0.45 EPA/Play on them.

QBs have had great first starts before. Chad Pennington going blow for blow with Trent Green in his first NFL start comes to mind, but I'm not sure if even that can match this, and we all know I'm the world's biggest fan of both Chad Pennington and Trent Green.

In more recent terms, this is like a QB making his first career start against 2023 Cleveland, and hanging 0.45 EPA/Play on them. We do have an example of a QB making their first career start against that Cleveland defence. It was Clayton Tune starting for Arizona in week nine last year, and he played perhaps the worst game any QB has ever played (not an exaggeration).

Throwing your young QB to the wolves in this way never works out well, but this time it did. To me, this shows that Colin is not only ready for the big lights, but he's a top QB in the NFL already, because nobody does this to the 2012 Bears. If you need proof, here's an exhaustive list of every QB who could even put up positive EPA/Play against Chicago in 2012:

Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers once in two tries. That's everybody.

Juxtapose this with the list of people who could not manage to generate positive EPA against this Bears defence:

Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers in his other try, Matthew Stafford twice, Tony Romo, and Matt Schaub, in addition to the Blaine Gabberts and the Sam Bradfords that nobody wants to hear about.

I'll reiterate one last time that Colin joined this crowd in his very first NFL start.

He was thrown to the wolves. He was put in a position to fail. Better QBs than him have fallen at smaller hurdles than this, but Colin did not just fail to fall at the hurdle. He jumped over the hurdle, and lapped all the other runners in the race. Alex Smith will be cleared to play week 12 in New Orleans, but it's too late. In just one week, his job is already gone. We're into the Colin Kaepernick era now, and he won't be slowing down against the Saints.

Colin walks into New Orleans, puts up 0.31 EPA/Play, outplays Drew Brees, and leaves with a convincing 31-21 victory. This is the loss that would send the 2012 Saints into a tailspin, and eventually cause them to have a several years long rebuild right in the middle of Drew Brees' prime. It was delivered by the second career start of Colin Kaepernick.

Now sitting at 8-2-1, the Niners are looking good for a first round bye, and perhaps more. That is, until week 13 in St Louis.

Much like week ten against the same Rams team, Colin lays another egg, including a highlight reel blunder on an option play that sees him pitch the ball over his back's head, allowing St. Louis to recover the fumble to score the game tying touchdown. This means that yet again we have to go to overtime to try to get rid of the St. Louis Rams, and it doesn't go well this time either.

Just like in week ten, David Akers misses the game winning field goal, but this time Greg Zuerlein makes his, giving the Rams a 16-13 win, and handing Colin his first loss as an NFL QB.

If he let this get him down, he certainly doesn't show it in week 14, putting up 0.28 EPA/Play in another easy two touchdown win at home against Miami, to move the 49ers to 9-3-1, and keep them alive in the fight for the NFC's second first round bye.

Easy wins like this are very much needed, because the Niners are just barely holding onto the bye, and are just a 1.5 games ahead of the 8-5 Seahawks for the lead of their own division. We have to get into the greatness of the 2012 NFC.

The 49ers have the bad fortune of putting together the best team they’ve had in years at the same time that everybody else had that exact same idea. The 2012 NFC is perhaps the strongest individual conference since the play tracking era began in 1999. It features six teams (Atlanta, San Francisco, Chicago, Green Bay, Seattle, Washington) that will finish the year with at least 10.4 expected wins. For reference, in 2022, the entire NFL finished with six such teams (San Francisco, Philadelphia, Dallas, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Kansas City).

2022 was an outlier in how weak of a league it was, but it serves to illustrate the point that the concentration of talent in the 2012 NFC conference is immense. Conferences this strong are very rarely seen. Occasionally, as evidenced by 2022, whole leagues are weaker than this.

Green Bay have already and Seattle will go on to win the Super Bowl. The Falcons have and will make several NFC Championship games, before finally making the Super Bowl several years in the future. Chicago and Washington will never reach these heights again, but are not flukes right now, and in the middle of all this is our San Francisco 49ers, led by Colin Kaepernick, with all four of his career NFL starts.

This San Francisco defence is very good. It will finish the season ranked fifth in the NFL in EPA/Play, but we are not the Bears. -0.075 is not good enough to not have to rely on our offence to get the job done. Nowhere will this be showcased better than our week 15 matchup.

For week 15, we're headed across the country to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots.

The Patriots are playing for a lot. The Denver Broncos have the AFC's top seed locked down at this point, and in 2012, the Texans have finally gotten their act together, so they are the current holders of the AFC second seed. New England is staring down the possibility of having to go into the playoffs with no bye for just the third time in the Brady-Belichick era, so they're going to come with everything they've got tonight.

However much the Patriots are playing for, we are playing for even more. Unlike the Patriots, we have to deal with the Seattle Seahawks right on our tail for the lead in our own division, with a matchup set for next week in Seattle, so the NFC West division win, and by extension a playoff spot in this loaded NFC, is not guaranteed yet, despite our 9-3-1 record.

In short, despite this game being played in week 15, both of these teams ,in the event of a loss, have their backs pressed against the wall. If the Patriots lose, there will be no bye for them, something that they are not used to. If the 49ers lose, our playoff spot comes into question, especially with the nightmare game on the road in Seattle next week.

It's San Francisco against New England, not for all the marbles, but for a lot of marbles. In Colin’s fifth career start. Yet another unfair situation, but yet another one Colin is ready for.

The game begins with a Patriot three and out, and an easy Niner touchdown to immediately set the tone and jump out to a 7-0 lead. From here, the teams trade non-scoring drives all the way to 8:35 of the second quarter, where the Patriots finally find a field goal to get them onto the scoreboard and make the score 7-3. Perhaps now liking that the pressure is back on, it takes Colin just two passes (with two Frank Gore rushes sandwiched in the middle) to get back into the end zone with a 34 yard completion to make the score 14-3.

The Patriots again cannot respond against this suffocating San Francisco defence, so now there's 6:04 left in the second quarter, and Colin gets the ball back again, with the chance to go a long way towards putting this game away.

The drive uses all the remaining time in the half, and features several completions on second and third and longs to keep it going. Eventually, we find ourselves on the Patriot four yard line with 18 seconds left. A touchdown would take the score to 21-3, and really put a hurting on the Patriots' chances, so this is a very important touchdown to score, but the first try is an offensive pass interference penalty that moves us all the way back to the 14.

A ten yard designed Kaepernick run gets SF back to the four yard line, but a Frank Gore rush cannot find the end zone on second down, and we just run out of time. On third down from the two with two seconds left, Jim Harbaugh elects to kick the field goal to go into half with the 17-3 lead.

Dang Colin. Good job.

It’s not a perfect job. That touchdown at the end of the first half would’ve been a great one to have, but how often do you see teams take 17-3 leads into the halftime break against the 2010s New England Patriots? The 2010s Patriots are my pick for the best decade of any team ever, and the 2012 version is one of the better teams of that period. Nevertheless, Colin is just making this look easy.

The 2012 Patriot defence is nothing to write home about, but they're still good (12th in the NFL). Bigger than that is going on the road into a game as underdogs and walking into the locker room for half with an 83 percent estimated Win Probability (WP). That's great stuff. Unfortunately, Colin just couldn't find the end zone on that last touch of the first half, or this game may just be out of reach already, but this was still a great first half by any measure, and the second half starts in exactly the same way.

We get the ball coming out of half, and are marching down the field again, in no small part due to a 26 yard completion from Colin on a third and 15. Our offence is all the way to the Patriot 34 and looking to score again when the worst happens.

Colin throws the second interception of his career (the first being an unimportant toss in the easy win over New Orleans last month). This hurts badly, as this play alone takes SF's estimated WP from 90 percent back down to 82, and as the Patriots move down the field this creeps lower and lower. We all know that the last thing you want to do is to let the Patriots back into any game, especially an important game like this one. If Tom Brady can come back on you, he will.

Not this time.

A Stevan Ridley fumble and a 66 yard return give the Niners another touchdown to move the score to 24-3. Their next touch sees a Brady interception, and it takes Kaep just one throw to Michael Crabtree to get into the end zone again to take a 31-3 lead, and improve SF's estimated WP to the mythical 100 percent at the 10:26 mark of the third quarter.

Oh no.

As we all know, when I bring up the dreaded one hundred percent chance of victory, nothing good ever comes from it. Especially with this much time remaining. The Patriots, expert situationists that they are, know what they need to do, turning to the no huddle offence with 25 minutes left in the game, and scoring a touchdown quickly to make the score 31-10. Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman elect to use our drive on three rushing plays to run some time off, and an incompletion on third down gives the ball right back to the Patriots, who score again on the first play of the fourth quarter to make the score 31-17.

This is starting to get a little nervous.

Our coaches have learned their lesson, and we come out on our next touch playing real offence, but still go three and out and give the ball right back to the Patriots again, who score quickly again, taking the score to 31-24, and all of a sudden this has gone from no sweat to a real football game. This is even more true when we go three and out again on our next touch, largely due to a killer 13 yard Colin Kaepernick sack. The Patriots respond with their fourth touchdown in a row, and all of a sudden we've gone from a 100 percent chance to win, to a tie game with the Patriots in the fourth quarter.

What just happened?

I know it's a running joke in this publication that if you see a zero percent chance of victory, it actually means a 100 percent chance of victory, but in real life it's exceedingly rare to see this kind of thing. The Patriots have made a 28 point comeback in just 19 minutes. The white hot Niner offence, and our white hot young QB, have gone cold as ice ever since we got that 100 percent chance of victory in the third quarter, and there's a real chance this is about to be one of the biggest chokes in sports history.

Remember the stakes here. No win for San Francisco means no first round bye, possibly no home playoff game at all. A win means a pretty clear path to the NFC's second seed. I can guarantee that the players do not want to play an extra playoff game, even if it is at home, and yet our offence and defence have just worked in tandem to surrender one of the biggest comebacks in NFL history to throw that bye away.

As the 49er offence walks back onto the field at 6:33 of the fourth quarter, we haven't gotten as much as a first down since 12:51 of the third. Both of our second half touchdowns have been one play drives off Patriot turnovers, so for the last time we truly moved the ball, you have to go all the way back to the beginning of the half. In real time that's well over an hour ago.

Remember this is just Colin's fifth NFL start. QBs in their fifth NFL start are allowed to lose to the New England Patriots. That's okay, but it would hurt to lose it in this way. Once again, Colin has been placed into a situation that is utterly unfair to put a man of his experience level into, a fourth quarter duel with Tom Brady, but once again he's going to take this unfair circumstance, and twist it to his advantage.

As the 49er players walk onto the field, given how everything has gone for the last hour, perhaps even they would be surprised by what's coming next.

Colin Kaepernick to Michael Crabtree. Touchdown.

Another one play touchdown, just when his team needed it most, pushes the score to 38-31. It couldn't have been any bigger. This one play touchdown, after working so hard to come all the way back, breaks the resolve of even the unbreakable Patriots. They do not threaten us again, as we eventually win this game 41-34.

Whew. That was close.

Colin did not play great in this game, generating 0.09 EPA/Play in his 36 touches, but it's not his fault that the Patriots kept turning the ball over and giving him these short fields to work with (situations with a lot of Expected Points to begin with hurt your ability to generate more Expected Points). The second half was a really poor showing, but that’s what a 14 point half time lead is for. It's great to see games like this one, to remind yourself that the first three quarters count just as much as the fourth one does.

It's important to get out to as big a lead as possible, because you never know whether or not you're going to squander it. Colin had 31 points on the board by the time Tom Brady got three, and thank goodness he did, because he needed every single one of them. Even once the comeback was made, he still had the fortitude to go out there and throw another touchdown pass, when his team was at its greatest moment of need.

On the stat sheet, this game was not very impressive, but how can you not be impressed by a man in his fifth career NFL start going out there and putting a dagger into the heart of New England Patriots like that?

Great job Colin.

Now at 10-3-1, we officially control our own destiny to a first round bye, but with the benefit of hindsight, I can tell you that the players are clearly out of gas after that marathon in New England, and not prepared to travel back across the country to Seattle to play the Seahawks. We get our doors blown off, in a humiliating 42-13 division loss, to drop to 10-4-1. Thankfully, that clutch win against the Patriots keeps the division crown safe, but with the loss we fall behind the Packers in the standings, meaning the first round bye is all but gone.

The only choice for week 17 is to win and to hope that the Packers lose. Thankfully, our week 17 matchup is at home against Arizona. We win easily. That leaves us with nothing to do but watch as on the other side of the country Adrian Peterson is running for 199 yards and Christian Ponder is keeping up with a very game Aaron Rodgers as the Minnesota Vikings defeat the Packers 37-34, to vault the San Francisco 49ers back into position again.

After all we've been through, we're going where the His Year series has only been four times before. We're going into the playoffs with a bye, but before we go there, we have to talk about Colin Kaepernick.

How about this guy?

Have you ever seen anything like this before?

Don't get me wrong. There have been electric starts to NFL careers before. They happen all the time. 2002 Chad Pennington, 2004 Ben Roethlisberger, 2006 Tony Romo, RG3 and Russell Wilson both in this same 2012 season, 2016 Dak Prescott, 2017 DeShaun Watson, and 2018 Patrick Mahomes all come to mind, but it doesn't happen like this.

The 2002 Jets, 2004 Steelers, 2012 Redskins, 2012 Seahawks, 2016 Cowboys, and 2017 Texans were all begging for new QBs at the time, and the young guys stepped up to fill the need. That's not what this was. The 2012 49ers had a starting QB already. He was having the best season of his career. Alex was set to be out just one game with a concussion, but by the time he came back his job was already gone.

That's something special.

In just his first seven NFL starts, Colin generated 0.45 EPA/Play against one of the best defences in NFL history, outplayed Drew Brees in an easy win over the Saints, and won a fourth quarter duel with Tom Brady. In so doing, he generated 0.195 EPA/Play (7th among players with at least 180 plays in 2012) on a 4.5 CPOE (6th) and a 7.55 ANY/A (2nd).

Most players have to wait an entire career to achieve any of these things, but we've just seen Colin do it over the course of seven weeks. It is neither fair nor reasonable to ask a first year starter to accomplish any of it, but he did anyway. All of this with a perfectly capable Alex Smith still chomping at the bit to get his starting spot back, so you can bet Colin got pushed to the brink every week in practice.

There was nothing easy about any of this, but he certainly made it look easy, and he deserves all the credit in the world for that.

If you've read this far, you may have noticed one thing that was conspicuous in its absence. I haven't mentioned Colin's skills as a runner. Not even once. You may be wondering why this is, but there's a simple answer for it.

Colin just doesn't run that much.

I'm going to clear something up right now. People remember Colin Kaepernick and think of him as if he's Lamar Jackson. That's almost entirely incorrect. Most Ravens games will feature at least six designed Lamar Jackson runs, in addition to the scrambles, which is why in Lamar's 2019 His Year article I was constantly separating his abilities as a passer and as a runner, and pointing out when one shined and the other didn't. The majority of games in this amazing seven week stretch feature fewer than three designed runs for Colin. While you may look at the box score and see a lot of rushing attempts, almost all of those are scrambles.

Scrambling as a QB requires an ability to scan the field and make the determination as to whether it's better to run or throw, which fundamentally categorizes it in my opinion as a passing skill, not a rushing one. This fact, along with his 4.5 CPOE, means that Colin Kaepernick in 2012 was an elite passer, and I refuse to allow you to conceptualise him as a 'running QB,' which is a phrase that doesn't mean anything, but nevertheless has a negative connotation to it.

I bring all that up just to ensure you remember Colin's greatness as a pocket passer as a justification for why what happens next happens in the way that it does. For me to get into more detail on that statement, we have to go to San Francisco for a rematch of week one between the Niners and the Packers.

A lot has changed since Alex Smith dominated the Green Bay defence in week one, primarily that Alex will not touch the ball today. This has now become Colin's team, but the results will not be any different.

Things look good on the first drive of the game. It takes one quick pass and one Frank Gore rush to get the opening first down, and it seems like we’re set up for a hot start, which is essential with Aaron Rodgers on the other sideline. After another Frank Gore rush, it's second and six. We go play action on second down, but the Packers are not fooled. Colin is immediately flushed out left, and tries to squeeze a pass in to Vernon Davis, but just can't get enough arm on it. It falls into the arms of Sam Shields, who runs into the distance.

Touchdown Green Bay.

This is the type of mistake a QB in his eighth NFL start would make. These things happen, and it's okay, but yet again it's terrible timing. This mistake immediately puts Colin’s team into a hole that NFLFastR estimates they only have a 38 percent chance of climbing out of. This sucks, but if there's anything we've seen about Colin in the seven games we've been with him, it's that he doesn't let these things get him down. He's going to go back out onto the field and keep chucking, and that's exactly what happens, but not quite in the way you would think.

The first play of the drive is a five yard Frank Gore rush, and the second is a small scramble for Colin to bring up third and two. At this point, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman in the booth start talking about him possibly being nervous, especially in the wake of that early turnover. Obviously they haven't watched him as much as I have, because I'm 100 percent sure that's untrue. We’re able to get the first down, by way of a defensive holding penalty, but the next two passes fall incomplete, bringing up third and ten.

Troy Aikman again remarks that he thinks Colin is nervous. Again, I completely disagree with him, and I am proven correct on this third down play, as it looks quite similar to the turnover before, with Colin being flushed out to his left, but this time the corner bites up to deal with the threat of the scramble, and Colin drops it right over his head for a big 45 yard pass play.

He's not nervous. He's ready.

A sack on the next play brings up second and 17, but even that can't stop us, as on third and eight from the Green Bay 20, Colin finds a wide open running lane to scramble into the end zone for a touchdown. Once again, it's Colin analysing the coverage in order to find an easy touchdown on the ground. A rushing QB can't do that. Colin Kaepernick can.

The next two drives see both teams trading punts before the Packers put the ball in the end zone themselves to see a 14-7 score at the close of the first quarter. Now facing a deficit, the drive starts with a 15 yard Kaepernick to Crabtree completion, but after a first down pass that goes right through Delanie Walker's hands, a three yard designed run for Colin, and a completion short of the sticks on third down, the 49ers have failed to respond.

At least, that would be true if the punt weren't muffed.

The Packers put the ball on the ground, and Colin doesn't let the second chance go to waste. A clutch third and goal completion to Michael Crabtree sees the Niners score another touchdown to even the score at 14.

After a Rodgers interception, we’re able to respond again, even despite a taunting penalty on another clutch third down scramble by Colin.

I know in theory the calls are supposed to go the same for everybody, but have you ever seen the QB get a taunting penalty? Something seems weird about that to me.

No matter. Just two plays afterwards Colin has thrown a 20 yard touchdown pass, again to Michael Crabtree, and the Niners are ahead 21-14. After the Packers respond to even the game at 21, we have the opportunity to run a two minute drill at the end of the first half, and what results is one of the oddest two minute scenarios you'll see.

In order, it goes: designed run for Colin that goes nowhere, 19 yard scramble, incompletion, incompletion, 18 yard scramble, seven yard completion, six yard non-Colin rush attempt, incompletion, nine yard scramble. Despite just one completed pass, for just seven yards, the David Akers is able to kick a field goal as the half ends to go into the half with a 24-21 lead.

You may ask why exactly that's so odd. After all, I was just explaining how good Colin is at analysing the coverage and deciding when to take off and run. Well, that's precisely why this drive is so odd. Why do the Packers keep running man blitz concepts when it's clear Colin can see what's happening and just keeps taking off on them?

Joe Buck and Troy Aikman ask the same question. Everybody is asking that question. Only Green Bay's defensive coordinator Dom Capers knows the answer to it, but it's clear to see Colin and the Niner offence have benefitted from it immensely in the first half, and what a first half it was.

Aside from the one turnover, Colin was terrific, keeping step for step with Aaron Rodgers, and despite the uniqueness of the two minute drill, it was also very successful. It seems almost nothing can go wrong for either offence, and despite both starting the second half with three and outs, that's not going to be stopping any time soon.

Following a Packer field goal to tie the game back at 24, Colin comes back out and goes back to making it look easy. One completion to Michael Crabtree, then another, and then yet another designed run for Colin. Normally, designed runs for Colin Kaepernick are not a successful concept for San Francisco, either tonight or throughout the season, but this one breaks big. It's the Colin Kaepernick run that everybody remembers. The one that’s on all the highlight reels. It's a 56 yard touchdown run, and it couldn't have come at a better time. The 49ers are back on top 31-24, and now it's on Aaron Rodgers again to try to respond.

He can't. He never will. The Packers cannot respond on their next touch, and we continue scoring easily, making the score 38-24 in response. Once the Packers have to punt away their first touch of the fourth, we again walk straight down the field for another touchdown, and it's over. One garbage time touchdown makes the score 45-31, but it will get no closer. It's become clear that Aaron Rodgers has been outplayed by the second different San Francisco QB this year, this time in a playoff game.

Aaron played great tonight, generating 0.23 EPA/Play on 45 touches. Those are numbers good enough to win most playoff games, but not when you're playing against Colin Kaepernick, who generated 0.39 EPA/Play on 48 touches, and an astonishing 0.84 EPA/Play on his 12 designed rushing touches, which don't even include the scrambles. His 181 rushing yards in this game netted Colin the record for most rushing yards by a QB in a playoff game, a record he still holds, and the most rushing yards by any SF 49er in a playoff game, a record he’s since lost to Raheem Mostert. All of this despite most of his designed rushes crashing and burning all night.

Do I have to bring up that this was the man's eighth NFL start, or is that still top of mind for us all? I think it's good to bring it up anyway that a man now with eight NFL starts under his belt has torn up the league's best two defences (Chicago and Arizona) and outdueled Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and now Aaron Rodgers in a playoff game. It'll give fans reading this more hope in their second round QB prospect. Maybe he can do this too.

Likely not though.

I've always found it odd that some players spend years trying to get their proper recognition, while others immediately get recognized for how great they are. For example, did you know that David Garrard has a higher career CPOE than Tom Brady? Did you know Matt Schaub never had worse numbers than Eli Manning in any season in the 2007-12 stretch? Did you know that it's now been three full years since Justin Herbert was a better QB than Tua Tagovailoa?

You likely didn't answer yes to any of those questions, because I'm the one that's the researcher here, and you're the one relying on me to tell you the story. While oftentimes I use the powers given to me via being the storyteller breaking my back trying to give recognition to players that deserved it but never got it, this is a bit of a different story, because after that performance against Green Bay, Colin Kaepernick is drowning in recognition.

In fact, he's getting so much recognition that the 11-4-1 San Francisco 49ers are walking into Atlanta to face the 13-3 Falcons as four point road playoff favourites. This shocks me, because normally when a team with one of the league's best offences led by one of the league's best QBs in Matt Ryan, with the league's eighth best defence to boot, play at home against a team with only a slightly better defence, and an offence led by a QB making his ninth career start, they don't play that game as four point underdogs.

That's how much recognition Colin Kaepernick has gotten.

On the other hand, perhaps we shouldn't be so sure of ourselves. The His Year series has gone to the conference championship game twice. In those two tries, Carson Palmer led us to a 34 point loss, Case Keenum led us to a 31 point loss, and it's not looking much better in Atlanta.

It's the end of the first quarter. Both of our offensive touches have resulted in three and outs, meanwhile Atlanta has scored two touchdowns and a field goal with their tries, and have a 17-0 lead. The Falcons have not been man blitzing at all, forcing Colin to win with his arm, a strategy that's held Colin to a mere one completion so far.

As far as His Year in the Conference Championship goes, this is looking pretty typical. Perhaps if we follow the pattern we can make this a 28 point loss. We’re finally able to respond with a touchdown to narrow the score to 17-7 and get ourselves off the deck, but I'm not truly convinced until the defence finally manages to stop the white hot Falcons, giving Colin the ball back at 6:24 of the second quarter.

You're saying there's a chance?

Once again undaunted by his failures in the beginning of the game, Colin completes three passes on this drive, all to Vernon Davis, plus a 23 yard scramble to get his team right back in the end zone again, and narrow the score to 17-14. At this point, you can see light in the 49ers, but this light is immediately dimmed again by a Falcon touchdown in the two minute drill that leaves the score at 24-14 going into halftime.

We're left in the position at the half of Colin having played great football, but not having touched the ball enough to have that great play make a difference. Those opening two three and outs really hurt, as Atlanta quickly ran away and built up a huge lead. I honestly don't see Colin having too much trouble scoring more on this Falcon defence, but ten point deficits are hard to make up when the other team is scoring constantly.

This means two things: the first is that every possession from here on is absolutely imperative. This deficit cannot afford to get any bigger with time starting to run low. The second is that Colin better cheer loudly on the sideline, because a stop is necessary somewhere along the way.

At the dawn of the second half, the offence does our part. We don't even see a third down in marching straight down the field for an easy score. The defence struggles, but in the end does their part too, as an interception on the SF 38 gives our offence a great chance to take the lead. Unfortunately, we cannot do that, as one 31 yard throw is the only completion on the drive, but we find ourselves in great position to tie the game. Unfortunately, David Akers' field goal try bangs off the left upright, meaning the whole drive was for nothing, and it's back to cheering for the defence.

They again struggle, but again find an opportunity, as Matt Ryan fumbles the snap at our 34 yard line, putting Colin in position to go take the lead, and once again he does his part. In a flash, the Niners are to the Falcon five yard line, but once again something out of Colin's control takes his chance away, as a fumble on a completed pass gives the ball back to Atlanta on their one yard line with the score still 24-21 at 13:24 of the fourth quarter.

At last the defence finds an Atlanta three and out, and punting out of their end zone means they can only get the ball out to their 38. This is a third consecutive golden opportunity for Colin and our Niner offence.

This one we take advantage of, requiring just one pass completion and a barrage of Frank Gore runs to at last find the end zone and take the lead for the first time all day at the 8:27 mark of the fourth quarter. From here, the Atlanta offence spends seven minutes grinding their way all the way to the our ten yard line, but being behind 28-24, they need to find the end zone, and just cannot do it. They turn the ball over on downs, and Colin has won his second straight playoff game.

Nine career starts, a 7-2 record, two playoff wins, and now victories over Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Ryan, in addition to the best and second best defences in the NFL. Along the way there's been NFL records set, and in the best year there's ever been for first year starters, featuring breakouts from Russell Wilson, RG3, Andrew Luck, and Colin Kaepernick, we have the last man standing.

In perhaps the strongest NFC there's ever been, the San Francisco 49ers have ridden the first nine starts of Colin Kaepernick all the way to the top. Along the way, they've burdened him with having to go against the league's best defence in his first career start, to which he responded with the best game out of any QB all year against the Bears. They've burdened him with having to outplay Tom Brady in a fourth quarter, which not many can do, but Colin Kaepernick did. They've burdened him with having to come back from a 17 point deficit in a playoff game, which not many can do, but Colin did.

These were unfair circumstances to throw a first year starter into. The 49ers deserved to crash and burn for throwing Colin into this. With any other second round man in his second year they would have crashed and burned for trying this, but they didn't. Somehow, it's all stayed together, and we're going to the big dance.

Somehow, some way, Colin Kaepernick's tenth career start is going to be Super Bowl 47.

As far as matchups are concerned, it seems as if we've caught a break. In Super Bowl 47, Colin doesn't have to face the AFC's best team (Denver). He doesn't have to face their second best team (New England). He doesn't have to face their third best team (Houston). He doesn't even have to face their fourth best team (Cincinnati). Instead of all these potential options, Colin gets to face the AFC's fifth best team (by both point differential and expected wins), the Baltimore Ravens.

There are six main areas of performance for a football team: pass, rush and total offence, as well as pass, rush and total defence. To be a great team, you generally have to be in the top ten in four out of these six categories. You can be great without doing everything well, but you can't be great without doing most things well. For reference, Colin and the 49ers rank in the top ten in all six of these categories, and are top five in most of them. Would you like to know what the 2012 Ravens are good at doing?

The answer is only rush defence.

That's right. The 2012 Ravens are the AFC's participants in the Super Bowl despite ranking 13th in the NFL in total defence, 13th in pass defence, just tenth in rush defence, 12th in rushing offence, 15th in passing offence, and 14th in total offence.

This is a Ravens team that's good, but one that was not expected to win round two or round three and wouldn't have been favoured to win in round one either if not for a favourable seeding scenario granting them a game against the Indianapolis Colts. In short, I'm not calling the 2012 Ravens bad, but I am saying that they don’t belong at this level. There hasn't been a team this bad in the Super Bowl since.

What I'm saying is that while I was somewhat shocked when the 49ers walked into Atlanta as four point favourites, the only thing that shocks me now is that the Niners are favoured by only five in the Super Bowl. I think it should’ve been more. These Ravens are not as good as Atlanta. They're not as good as Green Bay. They're not as good as Seattle. They're not as good as New England, so in a matchup sense, this is actually going to be one of the easier games the Niners have had in a while.

In all honesty, I'm not sure that helped, because it’s not possible to take your opponent lightly when you’re playing one of the best teams in the league almost every single week.

I'm not sure it's possible to take your opponent lightly in the Super Bowl, but if it is, we definitely saw it here.

The first half goes dreadfully badly for the SF offence. The first drive is a three and out. The second gets all the way to the goal line, but is forced to settle for three. The third touch is looking really good again, and is all the way to the Baltimore 25 before a fumble gives the ball back to the Ravens. The fourth sees just one play, which is a Kaepernick interception, and the fifth is another three and out.

This takes us to 1:45 of the second quarter. While we’ve been walking in quicksand, Joe Flacco has been having the game of his life, leading the Ravens to a 21-3 lead. This reminds me a lot of Atlanta two weeks ago, and the same principle applies. Scoring here is absolutely imperative in order to overcome this deficit, and from there it's reasonable.

Unlike Atlanta though, it just doesn't happen. Don't get me wrong. The two minute drill goes well, just not as well as it needed to go. It only takes us 33 seconds to get to the Baltimore 17, but we just can't find the end zone, again having to settle for three in the shadow of the goalposts to go into the half facing a 21-6 deficit.

This has been a season marked by overwhelming adversity, so I have no worries Colin and the offence will be able to rebound from this, but I have to wonder what they were thinking as the rest of us were watching Beyonce perform the extended halftime show. Normally for a halftime break, you only get 12 minutes to think about it, but at a Super Bowl you get better than 30.

I don't think this lends itself to the team down 21-6 despite being fairly hefty favourites, but also, it might. More time makes it easier to remind your guys how much better than the Ravens they are, so let's see what happens coming out of the half.

Jacoby Jones for 108 yards. Touchdown.

Are you kidding me?

This is exactly what we didn't need to happen. The 21-6 deficit has now become 28-6, and the somewhat manageable deficit has now become almost insurmountable in the blink of an eye. This changes everything for the 49ers. It takes our estimated WP from a still respectable 18 percent all the way down to four, meaning it will now take a miracle for us to win this football game.

A miracle does come, but it’s not to our benefit.

On our ensuing offensive drive, Colin rips a 29 yard completion to Michael Crabtree to get the drive started on the right foot, but a sack on a second and seven leaves the Niners in a rough spot, facing third and 13 from our own 40. We have a good chance to come back from this and get a first down, because Colin still has that strong arm of his, but before we get that chance, we're going to have to wait a while.

Before this third down play, the lights go out, and in a league with a 40 second play clock, we have to wait 34 minutes for this crucial third down play. The conspiracy theories immediately start, because lengthening the Super Bowl by 34 minutes seems to be a conspicuously large benefit to the league and its advertisers, but I'm not going to get into that here.

What I am going to get into is how this 34 minute break right after a 30 minute halftime break is not good for anybody. It ruins our drive, as we come out running a rudimentary play that does not pick up 13 yards and have to punt the ball back to the Ravens, but it also doesn't benefit the Ravens, as their offence hasn't seen the field since 1:58 of the second quarter, and even that was a three play touchdown drive. You have to go back to 3:12 of the second quarter for the last time the Ravens had any sustained offensive success. In real time that's over an hour and a half. Joe Flacco's rhythm is absolutely broken.

The blackout caused all kinds of weirdness, and obfuscates the fact that at the exact same time, in failing the crucial third down and 13, down 28-6 at 11:40 of the third quarter without the ball, we reach the mythical zero percent chance of victory. Reaching zero this early into the game is rare and hard to do, but it also means you have the biggest chance to come back from it.

After the Ravens go three and out, it's time. This has been a season for Colin marked by overcoming difficulties, ignoring past failures, and pushing forward as if everything is perfect. At no time is that skill set more valuable than it is right now, with a zero percent estimated WP in the Super Bowl. We've seen just a few weeks ago in New England that a comeback from this far behind is absolutely possible, and starting now, we get to it, with Colin throwing a 31 yard touchdown pass to Michael Crabtree to narrow the score to 28-13. That's a good start.

After another Raven three and out and a wonderful punt return, it takes only two plays to get back into the end zone to narrow the score to 28-20, and Baltimore's next drive sees a fumble on their own 25.

A comeback from a 28-6 deficit in the Super Bowl would be epic enough, but we’re on the verge of getting it done in just ten minutes. Unfortunately, two incompletions in a row means the drive must end with a field goal to make the score 28-23. The Ravens finally get their offence going, responding with a field goal of their own to move the score to 31-23 at 12:47 of the fourth.

That means Colin Kaepernick is going to get the ball back, in the fourth quarter, behind by one touchdown.

This is what every NFL player dreamed about when they were a little kid, and Colin is getting the chance to actually live it. On the flip side, this means the pressure is on. The lights don't get any brighter than they are now. Colin has been under immense pressure for this entire season, and hasn't shown signs of wear yet, and I've expressed my belief in him throughout the process, but if those signs of wear are ever going to show, it’s right now.

Once again, they don’t.

Colin Kaepernick comes through yet again. Five plays, two and a half minutes, 76 yards. Touchdown San Francisco.

Unbelievable.

I swear this man must have been born with ice water in his veins. He took all the pressure in the world, and just spit on it. It was easy. No third downs. No incompletions. Nothing went wrong. It was like a training camp drill, except it was the fourth quarter of Super Bowl 47.

Not everybody can do this. Almost nobody can do this, and we're still in just his tenth career start. Colin Kaepernick is not human.

The two point conversion try does fall incomplete, as Ed Reed goes offside and forces Colin to throw to Randy Moss, who isn't even looking at him yet. We all look around, and somehow there is no flag. In the modern day this wouldn't have even been a free play. It might have even brought on one of the unblocked to the QB whistles.

This is one of the most forgotten game-deciding missed calls in NFL history, because of what comes next, but I'll be very clear that the Niners should have had the chance to try this conversion again. That chance was stolen. We weren’t even truly allowed a fair chance to try it the first time, as when Colin turned around, Ed was already there, unnaturally quickly.

If we would’ve gotten a real chance to try this two point conversion, that doesn’t guarantee success, and who knows what may have been different in the annals of NFL history, but as it stands, don’t allow this failed two point conversion to do anything to dampen your opinion of the clutchness of Colin Kaepernick.

Do any of you believe he would've failed if given a real chance at it?

After another Baltimore field goal to make the score 34-29, we're back in the same spot as before. Once again, due to the missed offside flag, touchdown is the only option. Once again, it's all on Colin. After all we’ve come through discussing Colin’s ease of overcoming overwhelming odds, I would rather have no one else operating my offence right now than him.

This time there's 4:19 left on the clock, so it's either a touchdown here or lose the Super Bowl. I didn't think this was possible, but we’ve found a way to put even more pressure on Colin’s head. It’s his tenth career start. For crying out loud, surely this time is where he’ll crack.

Think again. Colin Kaepernick does not crack.

Once again it just looks easy. The 49ers are down to the Baltimore seven yard line before seeing a third down. For the first time since 12:04 of the second quarter, our estimated WP is back over 50 percent. With the first play being a Frank Gore rush, it's now second and goal from the five yard line.

Incompletion to Michael Crabtree.

Two more tries, and I would still bet on the 49ers in this situation, although their occasional difficulties putting the ball in the end zone through the course of this season are coming back as painful memories now.

Incompletion to Michael Crabtree.

Those memories are even more painful now, but there's still one more chance.

Incompletion to Michael Crabtree.

Oh my goodness. We've just lost the Super Bowl.

As the clock strikes zero, the Baltimore Ravens win 34-31, and our comeback falls just short, I feel just like one of the players. I am simply awestruck, and don't have many words to say.

I, like many of you, have been coasting through this experience not expecting to lose at any point. This is the feeling you get as a fan when you have a QB you know you can rely on in the fourth quarter. Patriots fans know it. Chiefs fans know it, and in 2012, SF 49er fans got to know it. As long as the game is close, losing is not a possibility, because we’ve got the best pressure QB in the league. He even outdid Tom Brady in a fourth quarter firefight.

If he can do that to Tom Brady, he can surely do it to the 2012 Ravens, which is why everybody is so shocked right now. Colin was always going to save us in the end, but this time, it just didn't happen. The man who through the whole season never felt the pressure, never tripped on any hurdle, didn't have any issue overcoming a 17 point deficit in the NFC Championship, and made a 22 point comeback in the Super Bowl look easy, has just fallen at the final obstacle, and that legitimately shocks me.

This story happened in 2012. I knew the ending before I wrote the first word of the first draft of this article. I knew Colin was not going to get into the end zone, and was not going to win the Super Bowl, but at some point through this writing process, watching Colin make clutch play after clutch play after clutch play all season, I allowed myself to be sucked into the mystique. Watching this game back for research, I legitimately thought Colin was going to put this ball into the end zone, and win Super Bowl 47. I was shocked when he didn’t, and this game happened 12 years ago. I knew the conclusion.

This 2012 season felt like watching your favourite movie over and over, and all of a sudden one time the ending changes. The hero trips over one of the obstacles that he's always jumped over every other time you've watched this movie, and that's it. It's over, and you're left looking at the screen, dumbfounded.

That's how I feel about Colin Kaepernick.

If just one of those balls to Michael Crabtree could have been completed, this would've been one of the best stories in NFL history. It’s a great story anyway, even with the goal line stand, but I just wish we could go back and change the ending.

I suppose that's a sentence that can have a few different meanings with respect to Colin Kaepernick's NFL career.

Over his first ten NFL starts in 2012, Colin went to the top of the world. He became the king of the mountain.

He'll spend his next 54 starts falling down the side of the mountain.

In the end, time would prove San Francisco wrong in going with Colin and getting rid of Alex Smith, as Alex would go on to bigger and better things. He had some great years left in him as the starter for the Kansas City Chiefs, meanwhile the 49ers would be left with one of only four QBs in NFL history (along with Charlie Frye, Cody Kessler, and Sam Bradford) to have a CPOE as high as 4.5 in a season, and never have a positive one ever again.

As KC grew into the winner they are today, building a winning culture with Alex under centre, the 49ers spent those same years wilting into the awful squad that was willing to trade a high draft pick for another blue chip second round QB prospect, Jimmy Garoppolo, to fill the hole that Colin left behind.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why this happened, because I've just gone through all of Colin's elite 2012, and I can promise you he had everything it took for sustained NFL level success. Is it possible, as some have speculated, that all the time spent on non-football interests ate into his abilities to play QB? Perhaps, but weirdly prominent off the field interests never seemed to hamper Aaron Rodgers that much, so I'm somewhat doubtful on that one myself.

In truth, I'm not sure why Colin fell off so hard, but he did, spending the most of the rest of his career holding back the 49ers, until finally it got so bad that they had to move on in 2016. He would never get another chance in the NFL after that, for reasons that we agreed not to talk about, but it’s not like he deserved another chance based on his on-field play either. A negative EPA/Play on a negative CPOE over his final two seasons see to that.

This jarring falloff after such an electric first year as a starting QB has done a lot to bury the legacy of 2012 Colin Kaepernick, but I’m happy to be the one to keep the legacy alive, because this was a player who overcame adversity (in a football context) like few before him ever have, and that shouldn’t be forgotten.

Never forget Colin Kaepernick's Year.

Thanks so much for reading.