His Year: Lamar Jackson 2019

In the year of the quarterback 2019, one man came from being a glorified running back to overtake everybody and win MVP. Let's talk about Lamar Jackson.

(NOTE: Scrambles are counted as pass plays. Whenever you see "EPA/Play as a passer" note that scrambles are included in this, and NOT his EPA/Play as a rusher. Enjoy)

Lamar Jackson was an enigma.

He made his debut on a 4-5 Ravens team in 2018. He turned the team around. He led them to a 6-1 record and an AFC North win and a playoff appearance. What a great rookie season right? That's where the numbers would say otherwise.

Lamar Jackson posted an astounding negative six Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) in 2018. To put that in perspective, that is fifth worst in the entire NFL. Only CJ Beathard, Josh Rosen (who both haven't been a starter since), Josh Allen (who still had his horrible throwing mechanics), and Blake Bortles (fell out of the league after this year) were worse. It's not like he was attempting difficult throws like Josh Allen was either. Lamar's expected completion percentage in 2018 was 66.4 percent, which is roughly normal. He was able to complete only 60.4 percent of his passes, which is very bad.

It's not a stretch to say Lamar was one of the worst throwers in the league in 2018.

So where's the positive? What's so enigmatic about a man who was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league? Lamar Jackson, despite his struggles throwing the football, generated positive EPA/Play in 2018. Not very much positive, 0.026 to be exact, which is still quite bad, especially by the (quite high) standards of the time. Still, this figure was better than that of established QBs like Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum, Derek Carr, and Ryan Tannehill in 2018.

Coming into 2019, there were positive points to Lamar Jackson. Everybody knew that if he could be an okay thrower he could be a very good NFL QB. They'd seen he could still be an okay QB as one of the worst five throwers in the league. Additionally, it'd been proven in the prior years that a player could improve as a pure passer. Jared Goff came into the league in 2016 and posted a heinous -10.9 CPOE, only to be an MVP calibre player in 2017 and 18. Mitch Trubisky had just had his career year on the 2018 Bears.

If Lamar could follow in the steps of these two and become a good NFL thrower, he may just be an elite QB himself. Whispers were coming out of the Ravens' training camp about the immense improvements in Lamar's accuracy and mechanics, but some just wouldn't buy it until they saw the improvements in a real game.

Literally. It took one game.

In Baltimore's week one matchup, they took on the tank for Tua Miami Dolphins. This was not expected to be a difficult game for the Ravens (the Dolphins would rank 32nd in EPA/Play allowed in 2019), but they were still only seven point favourites. They weren't ten or fourteen point prohibitive favourites. I can only believe this is due to little faith in Lamar and the Ravens' offence.

In one of the most lopsided games in NFL history, where the Dolphins reached the mythical zero percent chance of victory only 16 minutes into the game, Lamar would generate 29 total EPA in only 27 touches for a total of 1.07 EPA/Play. That is otherworldly. Lamar got taken out for the fourth quarter or his stats might've looked even better on the day. Lamar has more work to do to prove himself in 2019, but after week one there's a lot more buyers than sellers.

After an oddly close game against another awful (29th) defence of the Arizona Cardinals, but still one where Lamar generated 0.3 EPA/Play as a passer and outdueled a very game Kyler Murray, it was time for a real challenge. In week three, Lamar and the Ravens were going to Kansas City to take on the top dogs in the AFC on the road, led by defending league MVP Patrick Mahomes.

In the first big game of the Ravens' 2019 season, Lamar would struggle. After a first drive touchdown, the Ravens wouldn't score again until 10:53 of the third quarter, by which time they were down 23-13. They would try to mount a comeback, but would never be in a position to tie the game as the Ravens eventually lost 33-28.

In his first real time of asking, against a Kansas City defence that was just okay (18th), Lamar struggled. He generated positive EPA/Play as a passer, but 0.08 EPA/Play is not very impressive, especially not on a 51% completion percentage. This would not do if the Ravens wanted to be a real Super Bowl contender. This game in Kansas City looked like 2018 Lamar. 2018 Lamar is not championship calibre.

The path is clear to the playoffs. The Steelers have no big Ben, out for the year with elbow injury. The Bengals are on their way to the worst record in the league to eventually draft Joe Burrow. The Ravens' only real competition for the division is the suddenly trendy Cleveland Browns, led by Baker Mayfield. The same Browns who happen to be Baltimore's week four opponent.

This week four game against Cleveland is Baltimore's chance to tighten their grasp on the AFC North division. If they can get a win over the 1-2 Browns to move to 3-1, there's almost no way they can be caught, even though it's so early in the year. This is not exactly a playoff atmosphere, but it's a very important regular season game. This is where Lamar needs to step up.

The Ravens wouldn't score in this game until 1:51 to go in the first half. Against yet another below average (22nd) Cleveland defence, Lamar was again struggling. In the second half, Baltimore is able to get the game tied, but Cleveland runs away to take the division lead with a 40-25 win in Baltimore.

Baltimore has just squandered their easy path to the playoffs. For the second week in a row, the Ravens have lost a game that was not close. Lamar was able to generate 0.05 EPA/Play this game, but was held to the negatives as a passer. This is bad. If this is what Lamar can do against defences like Cleveland and Kansas City, what's he going to be able to do against real defence?

With a game in Pittsburgh against the Steelers and their third ranked defence on the schedule, that question is about to be answered for us all.

The answer is not a great one for Baltimore fans, as Lamar again struggled mightily in this game. He was held to -0.10 EPA/Play, and further in the negative as a passer. He was able to gash the Steelers for 70 yards in his 14 rushing attempts, but that doesn't make up for the three interceptions he threw. Luckily for the Ravens, this was the Duck Hodges game (if you're a Steelers fan you know), and so Lamar was still in position to be able to lead the Ravens on a game tying field goal drive, which to his credit he did. The Ravens would win this game 26-23 in OT off of a Steelers turnover in their own territory.

The Ravens should not have won this game. If Pittsburgh had a real QB the Ravens would not have won this game, but alas, the Ravens are 3-2 and back in the division lead again.

The Ravens are 3-2, and our man Lamar has had two exceptional performances on the year, and a game tying field goal drive against a very difficult Steelers defence. On the other hand, he's just played three incredibly uninspiring games in a row. Two of which were against okay at best defences. Doubt had to be creeping into the minds of Ravens fans everywhere. Year two is when QBs are supposed to make the jump. If they don't make the jump now they're probably never going to, and while Lamar has certainly improved as a passer, he hasn't improved enough to get these really bad games out of his system.

It's only week 6, but Lamar is running out of chances to prove himself. Three of the most important games of the Ravens' season are already behind them, and all featured 2018 Lamar. I'll repeat. 2018 Lamar is not championship calibre. He needs to turn this season around, and he needs to do it soon.

After an easy win over Cincinnati at home, it's week seven, and Lamar gets another chance to prove himself. The Ravens are going to Seattle to play Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks.

If I told you before this game started that Lamar would complete nine passes, what would you guess the outcome would be? If you guessed a fourteen point win for Baltimore and a great Lamar performance, you'd be correct.

Yes. Baltimore would beat the favoured Seahawks on the road, handily I might add, behind a QB who completed nine passes. This is the beauty of Lamar Jackson. Only he can generate 0.360 EPA/Play as a passer in a game with a 45% completion percentage (recall scrambles are pass plays). This week seven game against the Seattle Seahawks is the best showcase in his career of the uniqueness of Lamar Jackson. Name me another quarterback who can put up a game as great as this one completing only nine passes. I'll wait.

Some called this Seattle game the wonder of Lamar Jackson. Some called it the luck of Tim Tebow. Whatever side they're on, nobody can deny that there will be no luck in Baltimore's next game.

If I told you 5-2 Baltimore's next game is against the 8-0 defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots, that would already seem like a tall enough hill to climb. A quick aside for additional context will reveal the greatness that is to come.

In my opinion, the 2019 Patriots are the best defence since the turn of the millennium (yes, I'm including the 2000 Ravens in saying that). Coming into this week nine game against Baltimore, New England has given up double digit points only four times. They've not given up as many as 17 points so far. As of right now, prior to week nine against Baltimore, the Patriots are allowing an ungodly -0.433 EPA/Play. The league leader in 2022 was San Francisco, with -0.112.

Do you see where I'm going here?

Additionally, these 2019 Patriots come equipped with the league's 15th ranked offence. Nothing exceptional, but good enough that these aren't the 2000 Ravens. These aren't the 2009 Jets. Baltimore is welcoming a juggernaut. Lamar Jackson will have to step up to the plate in a way he never has before for his Ravens to jump this hurdle. 2018 Lamar won't do. Nine completed passes won't do.

At last, welcome to 2019. Welcome to Lamar Jackson's year.

Coming in as three point underdogs, Lamar and the Ravens would jump out to a quick 20-7 lead, but then hit the wall. Despite scoring only three second half points, they would hold on for an ugly 23-16 victory. Lamar would be held to -0.01 EPA/Play as a passer (0.03 total EPA/Play), but would complete 26 of his 39 passes for 280 yards.

This was not a great performance by any means, but this is an all time great defence. The NFL has seen maybe three defences this good over the prior 20 years. Lamar has a right to be proud of himself.

Wait a minute...

Hold the presses.

I'm just now receiving word that the above is actually the game Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs played against these same Patriots in week 14.

I guess I got confused listening to all the people yelling that the 2019 Patriots only looked so good because of weak competition and had that time they held Patrick Mahomes to negative EPA/Play on the top of my mind. My apologies everybody.

So how did our boy Lamar do against these Patriots? I mean if this is what Mahomes could do what hope does our glorified running back have? It's not as if he can score five times in only eight tries and put up 37 points against an all time great defence or anything.

And yet here we are. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens have just scored a statement 37-20 win over the defending Super Bowl champions. Our same Lamar that completed nine passes last week against a mediocre Seattle defence has just put up a 74% completion percentage against the New England Patriots.

Against a defence that would go on to allow positive expected points to only three QBs all year (Lamar, Deshaun, Ryan Fitzpatrick), Lamar put up 0.52 EPA/Play as a passer and 0.21 EPA/Play as a rusher. Against a defence that would allow as much as 20 points only four times all season, the Ravens have just scored 37. This is the game that cemented Lamar Jackson as a great NFL QB. It also happens to be the greatest game of his career to date.

The transition is complete. 2018 Lamar is dead, and the best QB in the NFL has taken his place.

After two easy wins over Cincinnati and Houston, it was time for the toughest stretch of the Lamar's season. Back to back to back games against the defences of the Rams (9th), 49ers (2nd), and Buffalo (5th) will prove once and for all whether the Patriots game was a fluke, or whether the Ravens have an MVP on their hands. The Rams and Bills are fighting tooth and nail for playoff spots. The 49ers are the future NFC representative in the 2019 Super Bowl. This will not be easy, but Lamar is up for the challenge.

The first step, in LA against the Rams, who were the defending NFC champions, was no contest. Lamar took the Rams' very good defence and treated them like they were the Dolphins, generating 27 EPA on only 32 touches for 0.84 EPA/Play before being taken out in the fourth quarter of a 45-6 win. Lamar Jackson has just killed the idea of Jared Goff in Los Angeles, and gotten his MVP push off to a great start.

This week 13 game between the 9-2 Ravens and the 10-1 49ers was hotly anticipated. Everybody knew that this was a potential Super Bowl preview. In this highest pressure environment, Lamar would again show how special he is, but would do it in a way only he could.

In this game, Lamar showed that he could turn the clock back to 2018 whenever he needed to. Held to -0.01 EPA/Play as a passer by the 49ers' suffocating defence, Lamar would generate an outstanding 0.23 EPA/Play on 16 designed runs to bolster a Ravens rushing attack that, other than Lamar, was struggling for really the first time all year. Lamar and Jimmy Garoppolo would battle all the way to the bitter end, until Lamar and the Ravens would get the ball with six minutes to go, tied 17-17.

Baltimore would do what they do best. They went on a six minute scoring drive, capped by two clutch Lamar runs on third and fourth down to drain the whole clock and kick a game winner as time expired to take a 20-17 win over the eventual NFC champions.

Two down. One to go.

As 10-2 Baltimore travelled to face 9-3 Buffalo, this was the same week that the aforementioned game between the 10-2 Patriots and 9-3 Chiefs happened. All four of these teams were fighting for a first round bye in the AFC, especially if the Patriots were to lose to Kansas City, which we know they're going to.

If Baltimore were to lose this game, they'd fall into a four way tie with all of the teams mentioned, all at 10-3. To keep themselves above all that fracas, they need a win in Buffalo. This is a very tough ask. This game was almost set up to be a Baltimore loss. Three games in a row against defences of this quality (including a trip all the way to Los Angeles, which never helps) becomes extremely difficult for an offence to overcome, but it is what it is. Here we go. Ravens vs Bills.

In this game, the Ravens offence would not play inspiring football. The first half included Lamar throwing his first interception since week 6 in Pittsburgh. Baltimore was able to enter the half with a 10-6 lead due to a touchdown scored on a 21 yard field after a Josh Allen strip sack, but this was not looking good. The Ravens needed something good to happen.

Luckily for them, they have the MVP.

On the third play of the second half, Lamar would throw a deep 61 yard pass for a touchdown and a 17-6 lead. With Josh Allen (still yet to improve his throwing mechanics) on the other side, what two minutes ago was looking tenuous all of a sudden looks pretty safe, but it wasn't. At five minutes left, the score was 24-17, and Buffalo had the ball. All Lamar could do was watch as his defence let the Bills drive all the way to the Baltimore 16 on their potential game tying drive, but the Ravens defence would hold there, and the Ravens would improve to 11-2.

Now safely above the fight for a bye, Lamar would generate 0.448 EPA/Play in the Raven's next two games, just to make sure. After a Ravens win in week 17 in which Lamar did not play, the 2019 season was over.

In 2019, Lamar Jackson finished with totals of 0.342 EPA/Play (1st), 3.8 CPOE (5th), and 8.19 ANY/A (4th), and was crowned MVP. To put this into context, 2019 was the season with the best leaguewide QB play in NFL history (roughly 1.29x better than in 2022). 2019 featured prime seasons from Brees, Mahomes, and Rodgers. It also contained the best season of Matthew Stafford's career, and the best season of Ryan Tannehill's career. Lamar was above all of them. He was the best in the world at the time when being the best in the world at its very hardest. Nobody can take that away from him.

All that being said, what happens next still baffles me.

The Ravens' first playoff game was against the 9-7 Tennessee Titans. A team who'd upset the Patriots behind a total of 14 offensive points and ended the Tom Brady Patriots era. This was moderately impressive but required a lot of luck and if they hadn't done it somebody would have. The Titans' expected win total was 10.20, so they were probably a bit underrated, but still they were not in Baltimore's class. NFLFastR's Win Probability model gave the Titans only a 16% chance to win at kickoff.

After a first drive where the 3.8 points the Ravens were expected to score were squandered by a Lamar Jackson interception at the Tennessee 35, the Titans would score a touchdown and the Ravens were down 7-0. The Ravens would get the ball again and be faced with a fourth and one on their own 45. From here, they would do what they'd done all year in this situation, call a designed run for Lamar. This time, it failed, and the Ravens have squandered another 2.1 expected points. One play later and they were down 14-0.

After three and outs by both sides, the Ravens got the ball with eleven minutes left until halftime. This is looking bad for the Ravens, but they can still turn it around. Only after two plays, they were facing third and ten on their own 21. Another punt would tank their win probability. It couldn't end this way. It wouldn't. Lamar would unleash a 30 yard pass followed by a 16 yard pass to give the Ravens their first three points of the game with six minutes to go until the half. At this point, despite being down 14-3, the Ravens' win probability was still 47 percent. It's anybody's game, especially after the Titans were stopped on their ensuing possession. The Ravens were getting the ball with two minutes left for the most important drive of the game.

On a drive featuring one third and 16 and another third and 14, Lamar was able to get the Ravens all the way to the Titans' four yard line, but ran out of time. This is now a one possession game at 14-6, but they'd squandered yet another 1.2 expected points, for a total of 7.1 in the first half. From a combination of bad luck and bad play, Baltimore have scored 7.1 points less than expected in the first half. They're down by eight.

In the first drive of the second half, Lamar overcame another second and 17 situation to get the Ravens into a position where they're facing fourth and one from the Tennessee 18. From here, they're expected to score 3.7 points on this possession. They do what they always do. They give the ball to the MVP. Lamar on fourth and one has a 71% success rate for the 2019 Ravens. Make no mistake, this was the right call (consult Fourth Down Decision Calculator (rbsdm.com) if you don't believe me), but for the second time this game he fails. Another turnover on downs, and the Ravens have thrown away another 3.8 expected points. Before they know it it's 21-6. On Lamar's first play of the next drive he is strip sacked and the Ravens are down 28-6.

Allow me to assert something. The Ravens offence has not played badly. Due to a confluence of bad circumstances, they are losing 28-6 and now have a 2% chance of victory, but this is nobody's fault. Bad luck can kill even the best of football teams. Over the course of the rest of the game, the Ravens get themselves in position to score 19.2 expected points, and score only six of them.

The Ravens lost this game 28-12 in baffling fashion. Utterly baffling. The Ravens got into Titans territory pretty much every time they touched the ball, yet through a combination of bad luck and bad play wasted almost every single opportunity. In total, the Ravens squandered 24.1 expected points. They lost by 16.

I watched this game live, and I've watched it several times since. I still cannot believe the Titans won this. At the time I felt the Titans had no right to win. In 2023 I feel the Titans had no right to win. A performance 24.1 points below expected cannot happen based only on the level of play on the field. This was a gift from God to the Tennessee Titans.

What does this have to do with Lamar? If you look in the history books, you'll see he generated -11.7 EPA this game. That's bad, but I'm attempting to explain to you how misleading that is. You do not consistently get past the opponent's 30 yard line the way the Ravens did in this game if your QB is playing badly. Lamar did not play badly.

Yes his EPA/Play was negative, but how do you think the Ravens got into the position where they had all of those expected points to lose? If you take away two plays from this game (either of the interceptions and the strip sack) then his EPA/Play is positive. Lamar had to touch the ball 84 times in this game. NFL data only goes back to 1999, but I'm willing to bet that's the most of anybody in NFL history. Don't let two of those plays define your opinion of Lamar Jackson.

Full disclosure; I am a Steelers fan, and I was elated to see this result. Nothing makes me happier than seeing the Ravens fail, but putting my human hat on, this result is sad. I feel bad for Lamar, in the same way that I feel for Andy Dalton in 2015, or Blake Bortles in 2017.

You only get one career year (since I'm making this His Year post on a currently active player, you know my opinion on his chances to have another year like this one), and for Lamar to lose his chance to a game like that saddens me for him.

Something in Lamar has been gone since 2019. He's still the best rushing QB in the game, but the elite thrower that was 2019 Lamar has been gone ever since. He's been replaced by an average to below average thrower of the football. 2022 Lamar Jackson needs his legs to survive in the NFL. 2022 Lamar Jackson would've been eaten alive by the 2019 Patriots. 2019 Lamar Jackson tore the Patriots to shreds. 2019 Lamar Jackson used his legs as an additional weapon. It's not the same thing. Whether it's a confidence issue or an injury issue or maybe 2019 was just a miracle season, I hope Lamar can get back close to this form at some time in his career.

If he doesn't, I feel like we're in for a deep slate of what if scenarios all surrounding the Titans game. What if that'd been a normal NFL game? The Ravens were a better team with a better QB than the Kansas City Chiefs. They would've been heavy home favourites in the AFC Championship. They'd already beaten San Francisco.

It wasn't a regular game, so Lamar Jackson gets to have his year remembered as the losing side of one of the biggest upsets of all time.

It wasn't fair, but it was his year. It was 2019.