His Year: Ryan Fitzpatrick 2015

The last good QB season the Jets have had. Why does nobody talk about it?

It started with a punch.

Do the Jets fans in the audience remember the punch?

The New York Jets were coming into the 2015 season following the first offseason under the new GM-Head Coach combo of Mike Maccagnan and Todd Bowles. The new regime was committed to making 2013 39th overall pick Geno Smith work. That is, until the punch.

In the locker room before the last practice before the Jets' first preseason game, second year linebacker IK Enemkpali either stood up and punched, or sucker punched, Geno depending on the source, reportedly over a $600 unpaid debt. The punch fractured Geno's jaw and was set to keep him out for 6-10 weeks. His career as the Jets' starter was over.

Geno's replacement was a journeyman quarterback named Ryan Fitzpatrick. Not yet Fitzmagic, in 2015 he was a quarterback in limbo. After three seasons from 2010-2 as the Bills' full time starter (including an underrated 2011), Fitz signed as a free agent with the Titans for 2013, but was released for 2014. He spent 2014 as the Texans starter, posting an impressive 7.15 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) and generating 0.138 Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) before having his season cut short by a broken leg, creating enough value for the Texans to trade him to the Jets for a sixth round pick as a veteran backup to the young Smith.

That plan never did come to pass. Ryan Fitzpatrick never would be a backup for the 2015 Jets. This is Ryan Fitzpatrick's Year.

Coming off a 2014 season with four wins and one of the worst offences in the league, improvement was expected coming into 2015. This was bolstered by the offseason trade for Brandon Marshall. In the first five games, Fitz proved that this hope was founded.

The Jets started 2015 4-1, including wins wins at Indianapolis, and at Miami. In this stretch, Fitz threw for 1177 yards, and nine touchdowns, and generated 0.171 EPA/Play. This EPA total was eighth in the NFL, ahead of quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, and Cam Newton. Not exactly Pennington 2002 stuff, but this was the best quarterback play the Jets had seen in years. These Jets were looking to be the best Jets team since at least 2009, and maybe since 1998. Things were looking up for them, and they were heading to their biggest rivals playing with confidence.

This week 7 game between the 4-1 Jets and the 5-0 Patriots in Gillette stadium in New England was to be both a battle for the AFC East lead and the first true test for these new look Jets. The defending Super Bowl champion Patriots, led by Tom Brady, were heavy seven point home favourites, but these Jets had a point to prove.

The two teams went back and forth the whole afternoon trading touchdowns and field goals and the Jets entered the fourth quarter leading 17-16. After a field goal at 12:57, the Jets were up 20-16. However, the Jets only got to touch the ball once more, as the Patriots went on back to back five minute touchdown drives to defeat the Jets 30-23.

Fitz had a big burden to bear in this game, as the Jets' early down runs had an unbelievable success rate of 17 percent, despite 24 early down rush calls (what is it with Jets coaches). Despite this, Fitzpatrick was outstanding in this game, as he threw 22 completions in 39 attempts for 295 passing yards and two touchdowns against the vaunted Patriots defence and generated 0.33 EPA/Play.

The greatness of this game cannot be understated. Ryan Fitzpatrick, in the highest pressure environment, a game for the AFC East lead in New England against the Patriots, had come in and outplayed Tom Brady. Despite the loss, the 2015 Jets had proven themselves. They were for real.

The Jets were now 4-2, and heading to Oakland to play the 4-2 Raiders. After a first drive of torturing the Oakland defence, it was revealed that Fitz had torn ligaments in his throwing thumb, and would miss the rest of this game. The Jets would go on to lose this game 34-20 behind Geno Smith. Geno just couldn't handle Oakland's defence like Fitz could.

This game will come back to haunt the Jets. Remember this for later.

In the following weeks, Fitz just would not be the same player. In the four games after New England (including Oakland) the Jets would suffer three losses and only manage to beat the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars (behind an admittedly really good Fitz performance). This stretch would include the two worst games of Fitzpatrick's Year in back to back games against the great defence of the Houston Texans, but also against the just okay defence of the Buffalo Bills. In these two weeks, Fitz went a combined 34 for 73, and had a CPOE of -13 (!). He threw for 409 yards and 3 touchdowns against four interceptions and generated -0.18 EPA/Play in two very ugly Jets losses.

These are stats that will quickly get a quarterback demoted to backup status. Especially one who was playing for a three million dollar salary and brought in for a sixth round pick. Phrases like "another bandaid quarterback" and "why didn't we draft Mariota" were starting to be thrown around. With his team now 5-5 and battling with the 5-5 Steelers and 5-5 Chiefs for the AFC wild card spots, Fitzpatrick had one more week to prove himself. His chance would come in a week 12 matchup against division rival Miami.

In this game, Fitz would make sure nobody was going to take his place. He threw for 277 yards and four touchdowns in a game that was never close, and generated 0.34 EPA/Play. This is what the Jets needed out of their QB if they were to make a playoff push. With his thumb injuries behind him and confidence restored, it was time for Fitzpatrick to lead it.

The 2015 AFC wild card race was one of the oddest in recent memory. After week 12, there were three real players. One was the Kansas City Chiefs, a playoff favourite to start the year that had gotten off to a 1-5 start, but hadn't lost since. They were now 6-5, but aside from one win at Denver, all of their wins were over bad teams. Nobody knew who the real Chiefs were. Another was the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were also 6-5 at the moment but still seemed unable to get off the starting block, trading wins and losses. The other was our 6-5 New York Jets, who had gotten off to a 4-1 start capped off by a moral victory in New England, but had lost three out of five since then. Which of these teams was destined to go on a hot streak to go get their playoff spot?

As it turns out, all of them.

In week 13, the Jets stayed home to play the New York Giants. In this game, Fitzpatrick (despite pitiful rush offence again) threw for 390 yards and two touchdowns and generated 0.25 EPA/Play to outduel Eli Manning in a 23-20 OT win. Combined with a Chiefs win over Oakland and Steelers win over Indy, this kept the Jets in a tie for the wild card position.

With wins across the board in week 14 also, every Jets fan knew that week 15 was their chance to pull ahead in the wild card race. The Jets were playing the worst team in the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys, in a Saturday night showdown. The next day, the Steelers had to face (no. 1 seed) Denver. This was their chance. This time, they'd pull ahead easy.

What happened was not that.

Determined not to be the worst team in the NFL, the Cowboys fought hard behind a brilliant rushing attack that the Jets could not stop all night. This shortened the game considerably, constraining play totals for both teams, and the Jets decided to use 25 of their precious plays on a rushing attack that was operating at a 28% success rate (what is it with Jets coaches).

Going into the fourth, the Jets chances at pulling ahead in the playoff race were fading behind a 13-9 deficit to the Dallas Cowboys. They finally decided to let Fitz go, and he led them on a go-ahead touchdown drive to go up 16-13. After a long Dallas field goal drive in response, the score was 16-16, and Ryan Fitzpatrick had two minutes to score, or risk going to OT again, and he delivered big, with the Jets kicking the game winning field goal with 41 seconds to go, and getting out of Dallas with their playoff hopes intact.

Unfortunately, the Steelers would manage to beat Denver, and Kansas City would beat Baltimore, so now all of the teams are deadlocked at 9-5 again. With the Chiefs getting lowly Cleveland at home in week 16, and the Steelers going to the same Baltimore Ravens that KC had just resoundingly beaten, this week the pressure was all on New York. Who's set to be their opponent?

Why is it always the Patriots?

The 2015 Jets have to face the defending Super Bowl champions again. This time with the Patriots hungry for the AFC 1 seed after Denver's losses, and with their playoff lives on the line. It's feasible for the Jets to win what were basically playoff games against the Cowboys, the Giants, the Dolphins, the Titans, but this is a different kind of challenge. They got their moral victory in November, but there are no moral victories now.

This is Ryan Fitzpatrick's Year, and he's up for the challenge.

This is where Fitzmagic is born.

For once aided by a rushing attack that the Patriots can't seem to stop, the Jets are leading 10-3 at the half. All is well in Jets fandom, but a one score lead is tenuous, especially with the Patriots getting the ball to start the 3rd. This game feels like it could swing on that first drive of the third, and it does, with the Patriots driving to the Jets' 22 in four plays, before throwing an interception. The Jets go score another touchdown. With a 17-3 lead, and Pittsburgh losing in Baltimore, this day feels too good to be true for Jets fans.

It is too good to be true.

After a Patriot field goal, the score is 17-6. There's three minutes left in the third, and the Jets have the ball. Another score on this drive would make it a two possession game going into the fourth quarter; an almost insurmountable deficit, even for the Patriots.

This is Ryan Fitzpatrick's Year. What do you think he does?

What he does is get strip sacked, and the Patriots return the fumble for a touchdown. The score is now 17-13, and with the Steelers trailing by only three in Baltimore, what a few minutes ago looked too good to be true is now full nail bite territory.

The Jets do score one field goal to go up 20-13, but for the rest of the fourth quarter can do nothing but three and out while the Patriots go and score the game tying touchdown with two minutes left. The Jets' would-be game winning drive also goes nowhere, and they're going to overtime against their arch nemesis with an offence that's scored 3 points in the last 18 minutes, and a defence that's been on the field most of the fourth quarter, with their playoff lives on the line. How could this possibly go well?

I'll tell you how. Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the Jets on a game winning touchdown drive that takes four plays and two minutes.

Wait... What?

How could that happen? Did he forget how poorly he played for the whole second half?

When a quarterback is having their Year, some things just happen.

With the Steelers having lost to Baltimore, the Jets were in prime playoff position at 10-5, still tied with the Chiefs, and now one game ahead of the Steelers at 9-6. All the Jets had to do was win their next game, and they would be in the dance. I have to believe 2002 vibes were creeping into the minds of Jets fans everywhere, but in this year, it just wasn't to be.

The Jets' last game of the year was against the 7-8 Bills in Buffalo, and this was a game where nothing went right for the Jets. The rushing offence was okay, but not as good as against the Pats last week, and this was Fitz's worst game since week 11 in Houston.

All this, and yet they still had a chance to win, trailing only 19-17 going into the fourth quarter. Fitz drove the Jets all the way to the Buffalo 14 with 10:53 left, only to throw an endzone interception. The Jets would never get this close again, and would lose 22-17.

With the Jets losing and the Steelers winning, there became a tie for the last playoff spot between the two teams, both at 10-6. Since the two teams didn't play, and weren't in the same division, the tiebreaker became win percentage in common games. It broke down as follows:

The teams had four common opponents: Cleveland, Indianapolis, New England, and Oakland. The Jets' record against these teams was a combined 3-2. The Steelers' was 4-1. The difference? The week 8 game in Oakland where Fitz got injured and the Jets lost (Not to mention the Steelers getting two Cleveland games). Due to this injury, the Steelers got into the playoffs and the Jets didn't.

Could Fitz and the Jets also have won that playoff game the Steelers won against AJ McCarron and the Cincinnati Bengals? Call me crazy, but I think they could have. With a playoff win under their belt, what goes differently for Ryan Fitzpatrick's career and for the Todd Bowles era New York Jets? I don't know the answers to these questions, but it's a what-if that doesn't get discussed enough today.

For Jets fans, it may be tempting to remember this season with pain, but I implore you not to. This was a season of hope, of faith in a new era. Ryan Fitzpatrick lead the Jets to their first (and only) winning season since the Rex Ryan era. In an earlier installment of the His Year series, I frivolously threw out the question "who is the last good QB the Jets have had?" and stated the answer was Chad Pennington. I was wrong. The answer is Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Real QB statheads might've noticed by now the elephant in the corner of the room I've been ignoring for the entirety of this article. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a 59.8 completion percentage (excluding spikes and throwaways) and a negative CPOE in 2015. Having a completion percentage below expected means the average quarterback would've completed more of his passes than Fitz did in 2015. People may use this to argue this article should be titled "His Year: Jets offence 2015" or it would have just as easily been "His Year: Geno Smith 2015" if not for the punch.

I disagree for the above arguments for the following reasons: 1) There was another QB who had a negative CPOE in 2015 who had a fairly successful season. Nobody argued that he was merely a solid backup surrounded with great weapons and had a great season because of it. His name is Tom Brady. If somebody wants to start the argument that the Patriots offence in 2015 could've been run just as well by a replacement level quarterback, I will listen to that argument. If not, I consider this matter put to bed; 2) The degree of difficulty of the average Fitz throw was very high. His expected completion percentage was 61.3 in 2015, the fifth lowest in the league, behind noted tough throw kings Jameis Winston and Carson Palmer, and league MVP Cam Newton, and Tyrod Taylor.

There is another reason I pay less attention to statistics in this season than in others. After week 11, Ryan Fitzpatrick was QB of a 5-5 team coming off his two worst games of the year with a throwing thumb injury and his starting spot in question. He responded with a six game stretch where he put up a combined 0.186 EPA/Play (7th in the league) on 61.8% completions and a 0.1 (non negative; 14th) CPOE to lead his team back into playoff contention, including the win that cost the Patriots home field advantage (and in my opinion, the Super Bowl). That is great stuff.

Ryan Fitzpatrick had a varied career after 2015. After contract holdouts and the worst season of his career with the 2016 Jets, he became a backup in Tampa Bay where he had a rebirth in 2017-8 (years I may come back to in this series), and wound his career down as the veteran backup in Miami and Washington. Neither he nor the Jets would ever get back to where they were in 2015, but they will always have 2015. They will always have Ryan Fitzpatrick's Year.