Josh McCown and the Story of the Biggest NFL Snub in Recent Memory
Josh McCown had an elite 2013, yet the Bears gave a nine figure contract to their other QB? Let's talk about it
(Note: This will double as His Year: Josh McCown 2013)
Picture this. You've been in your field for a while, but find yourself stuck in a positions below your qualifications. You switch companies over and over looking for something better, but nothing ever comes, until all of a sudden you look in the mirror and you're 32 years old. Your prospects at better positions have dried up. You keep getting passed over in favour of younger people. You can't keep doing this, so finally you finally settle down. You've been at your current company going on three years, when all of a sudden your manager flakes, and you get thrust into a decision making position with no notice and told to sink or swim. This is your chance, and it's your only chance, so you make it count. You take everything this company does and make it better. You improve their systems. You make their equipment run more efficiently. Other companies are calling to see if they can pry you away. You're the talk of the industry. You've never felt so appreciated. You do so much better your coworkers don't want their old boss back.
However, that old boss finally does come back. Everybody in your department begs the higher ups to keep you and send him to another company, but they won't listen. Your old boss takes your promotion away from you, ruins the new system you've created, and takes credit for everything you've done during your time in charge. They get all kinds of praise for how well the system operated, and get a big raise accordingly. Everybody at the company understands what's happened here, and are angry over it. The company can no longer afford the tension caused by having you both in the same department, so they cut you loose.
As it turns out, you will never find a job you excel at as much as that one ever again, and spend the rest of your working career back doing the same company shuffle you were doing before your big promotion. You spend the rest of your working days stuck watching inferior people doing a worse job than you know you could do, but you just can't get a foot in the door ever again. By the time you do get your last big chance, you're retirement age, and just can't handle the demands you used to. How would you react to this? How could you possibly handle all of this?
You may want to ask Josh McCown.
Heading into 2013, Josh McCown had been an NFL quarterback since 2002. Originally a third round draft pick of the Arizona Cardinals, he spent 2004 and 2005 being a below average starter on a not very good Cardinals team before being replaced by Kurt Warner. After one year as a backup, he was a 12 game starter for the 4-12 Oakland Raiders in 2007, before they ultimately drafted JaMarcus Russell to be his replacement. Originally slated to be the Dolphins starter in 2008, he was replaced by the sudden acquisition of Chad Pennington, and just like that his first career as an NFL starter was over.
As of August 2010, Josh had no NFL offers, and was forced to sign with the Hartford Colonials of the United Football League. On the eve of the season, he did receive an offer to be the backup to Jay Cutler in Chicago, but declined it, saying it "didn't sit well with him" and "it would be a bad example" to walk out on his signed contract to go to the NFL. Additionally, he got to start eight UFL games in 2010, an experience he claimed to be very beneficial in light of future events.
It's here we have to make our first pit stop to remark on the character of Josh McCown. He turned down the NFL to stay in the UFL, because he believed he believed it would be a bad example to walk out on his commitment. While I don't know the figures involved in this decision, that had to be a 500 thousand dollar decision at least. Raise your hand if you would give up $500000 to uphold your commitment. I'll wait.
Heading into 2011, Josh still had zero NFL offers, but in the middle of the season, on November 23, 2011, he found a home in Chicago to be the third quarterback behind the injured Jay Cutler and Caleb Hanie. This was Josh's chance. He had a toehold back in the NFL, and he would not let it go to waste.
Josh got the chance to start the final two games of the Bears' 2011 season against Minnesota and Green Bay. In these two games, Josh went a combined 34 for 53 for 402 yards, threw two touchdowns against three interceptions and generated 0.068 EPA/Play. These are not numbers that will light the sport on fire, but they were enough to prove to the Bears that he would be their backup going forward.
Going into 2013, the Chicago Bears had an offence loaded with weapons. They had the best 1-2 punch in the league with receivers Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall on the outside. They had an electric running back in Matt Forte, and an offensive line ranked fifth in pass protection by Football Outsiders.
At the end of week 6, behind QB Jay Cutler, the Bears' offence was ranked 11th in EPA/Play, but only 16th in pass EPA/Play. These were not bad numbers, but given the expectations, they were considered slightly disappointing. This was exacerbated by the Bears' defence, which was ranked 20th in the league in EPA/Play against, and was 26th against the rush. Despite Chicago's 4-2 record, there was about to be a big change.
At 10:04 of the second quarter of Chicago's week 7 game against Washington, Jay Cutler would go down with a groin injury with the Bears trailing 17-10. While Bears fans worried about Jay and his health, Josh McCown would have to worry about beating Washington, and the Bears' offence would finally get the breakthrough it'd been waiting for.
In the final 40 minutes of this game, Josh would go 14 for 20 for 204 yards, one touchdown, and generate 0.61 EPA/Play (compared to the -1.22 Jay Cutler generated in his portion of this game). Unfortunately for Josh, week 7 is also when the 2013 Bears defence really took a turn for the worse. Facing off against the final great game of RG3's career, Josh was outdueled, and his go-ahead touchdown drive with 4 minutes left invalidated, as Washington scored the game winning touchdown to defeat the Bears 45-41.
So, Jay Cutler was going to be out for Chicago's week 9 matchup against rival Green Bay for the NFC North lead, but Bears fans need not have worried. Josh McCown had a bye week to prepare for this game, and he was here to the rescue.
So here we are, week 9 of the 2013 NFL season. It's the 5-2 Packers against the 4-3 Bears in Green Bay. Josh McCown vs. Aaron Rodgers. Well... not exactly. Aaron got injured on the first series of the game and finished with two pass attempts. Josh performed less exceptionally than he did against Washington, but Seneca Wallace was no RG3. Chicago won this game 27-20, and if they could get 0.26 EPA/Play out of their backup QB in his starts, they were happy.
This is (technically) one of only five losses Aaron Rodgers has ever taken to the Bears. Enjoy it Chicago fans.
The Bears were now 5-3 and in the lead of the NFC North, and their offence has been showing signs of life. Now Cutler was back to face a second game in a row for the NFC North lead, against the 5-3 Detroit Lions in Chicago, but Josh's season was not over. He wouldn't even have to wait a full game for more action.
Josh had to sit on the bench and watch as his teammates went down 21-13 to the Lions, until peculiar circumstances would press him back into service. There were now two minutes left in the game, and Jay Cutler (unable to run due to his injuries) deemed himself unable to operate the two minute offence, so it was Josh's time to shine again, and he would deliver. In two minutes of playing time, Josh would complete six of his nine passes and lead the Bears down the field for a touchdown. Now down 21-19, all the Bears needed was a conversion, and this game would go to overtime. Unfortunately, a Matt Forte rush would fail to convert, and the Bears would fall to the Lions 21-19 to fall to 5-4.
This is the only time I've ever seen this in an NFL game. One quarterback plays the whole game only for his team to have more faith in his backup to run the two minute drill. In no way am I objecting to this decision, as Josh generated 5.9 total EPA in one drive (taking the team from their own 26 to a touchdown) compared to Cutler's 3.6 for the whole game. As a result of this game, it was decided Jay wasn't ready to play (and in my opinion, wasn't needed at all) for a few more weeks. The starting job was Josh's, and he would run with it.
After a not great but certainly more than acceptable performance in a win against Baltimore and their top ten defence, it was time for the 2013 Bears' magnum opus, their week 12 matchup in St. Louis against the Rams.
The Bears were 6-4, and with a win in St Louis they would cement themselves back in the NFC North lead in a dominant position with a 7-4 record, and Josh McCown would do his part. He would go 36 for 47 for 352 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Playing for a defence that was giving up 0.52 (oh my goodness) EPA/Play to the Rams' rushing attack, Josh was able to generate 0.20 EPA/Play himself against St Louis's top 10 defence. However, two Rams touchdowns in one minute in the fourth quarter sunk the Bears' chances, and they fell to 6-5.
This is the most 2013 Bears game of them all. Elite QB play was wasted by a defence that could not stop a Rams team lead by Kellen Clemens. Josh's record as a starter was now 2-1, but he'd played four phenomenal games against Washington, Green Bay, Baltimore an St. Louis, plus one more phenomenal drive against Detroit.
The same story from week 12 repeated itself in week 13. Josh played very well (0.23 EPA/Play well), but the Bears couldn't stop Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings, and Chicago fell to 6-6.
With Jay Cutler due back for week 15. Josh McCown and the Chicago Bears knew that, barring another injury, week 14 against the Cowboys was the last start he was going to get. With the Bears at 6-6, and needing a win to keep up in the playoff hunt, he would have to make this start count. His performance in this game would be one that Bears fans would never forget.
On a Monday night in December 2013, against the 6-6 Dallas Cowboys also fighting for a playoff spot, Josh McCown would deliver the performance of his career. He would go 27 for 36 for 348 yards passing and four touchdowns against zero interceptions. He would generate an astounding 0.91 EPA/Play against a Dallas team that could not keep him contained.
Do not allow yourself to overlook the greatness of this performance. This was legendary. There are Hall of Fame NFL quarterbacks who have never had a game this good. Under the pressure of a defence that still could not stop the rush, and with the weight of a playoff run squarely on his shoulders, Josh McCown, knowing he would not start again for the 2013 Bears, delivered one of the best performances of the 2013 season, and the best game of his NFL career.
How often have we heard this story before? The incumbent QB is doing good but not great, until he goes down with an injury. The offence then catches fire under the new QB, and the original starter never gets his job back. That's 2016 Tony Romo. That's 2001 Drew Bledsoe. That's 2022 Jimmy Garoppolo. The incumbent either has to retire or find a new team in the offseason. That's how the NFL goes. That's what makes the Bears decided to do in week 15 of the 2013 NFL season was mind boggling.
They decided to sit Josh, who'd been the best QB in the league since week 6, in favour of Jay Cutler.
And that was it. It was over. Josh McCown would not throw a single meaningful pass as the Bears would go on to lose two of their last three games and miss out on the playoffs. These snaps instead went to Jay Cutler and his 0.061 EPA/Play on the season.
This did not go unnoticed by the players. Former Bears WR Earl Bennett is quoted as saying "all but one receiver" wanted McCown instead of Cutler to start the final games of the season, and that he was "glad he eventually became QB1, although I wish it happened earlier and on the Bears."
This is where we have to make our second pit stop to remark on the character of Josh McCown. In Chicago's week 16 game against Philadelphia, they had fallen down 24-3 by the half, 33-3 at the beginning of the fourth, and at 8:00 of the fourth, it was 47-11. Bears coach Marc Trestman called on Josh to go in the game for mop-up duty.
Put yourself in Josh's shoes for a second. You've been scratching and clawing since 2007 to get back to being a starter in the NFL. It's now 2013, and you finally get your chance. You rock it. You're one of the best in the whole league over an 8 week stretch. You have one of the best QB performances of the 2013 season, and now here you are. It's two whole weeks later, and you're being treated like a backup, being asked to go into the game so that the risk of injury falls onto you instead of Jay Cutler. What would you do in this situation?
Josh went into the game.
I'm starting to realize why this guy stuck in the NFL for so long. The character of this man is something else. No wonder why he was so beloved by his teammates meanwhile Jay Cutler elicited lukewarm reactions from everybody. These endorsements from teammates would haunt Cutler as he signed his big deal in the offseason.
Right. The Jay Cutler deal. The albatross hanging around the neck of the 2013 Bears, that I've been avoiding until now, was Cutler's pending unrestricted free agency. To me, this explains why they put him back in for the last three weeks despite the offence having caught fire under Josh, and everybody on the team not wanting him back.
The Bears were left with an odd choice in the 2013 offseason. As the old adage goes, if you have two quarterbacks you don't have any, so do you keep Jay Cutler or Josh McCown? Allow me to elaborate on what they were looking at.
Josh McCown played 257 plays over the course of only six games in 2013, so why have I continuously been calling him a top QB in the league? Allow me to explain. Josh McCown finished 2013 with totals of 0.374 EPA/Play (1st among QBs with at least 180 plays), 8.54 adjusted net yards per attempt (3rd), and a CPOE of 4.9 (7th). This man was for real.
For those saying that his stats would've been dragged down with more playing time, consider this: if Josh McCown had played 428 more plays to finish with a full 685 play season, and every single one of them generated zero additional EPA for his team, he would've finished with 0.140 EPA/Play, placing him nicely between Tom Brady and Cam Newton for ninth in the league in EPA/Play that year. Keep in mind that this is the worst possible scenario.
If you're tempted to disregard Josh McCown's 2013 based on small sample size, consider this: Josh McCown (in roughly six games) generated 96.12 total EPA in 2013. Here is an exhaustive list of all other QBs who reached that mark that year: Peyton Manning, 251.54; Philip Rivers, 185.95; Drew Brees, 155.08; Nick Foles, 124.64; Aaron Rodgers, 110.28; Tom Brady, 102.96. That's everybody.
Here is a shortlist of QBs who did not contribute as many points to their teams in 2013 as six games of Josh McCown: Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, and notably, Jay Cutler.
If you believe that the job of a QB is to generate points for his team, you believe that Josh McCown was at least a top ten (probably top 5) QB in 2013.
On the other hand, Jay Cutler is the best QB the Bears have ever had. Long held back by poor QB play, Cutler came to the Bears and gave them passable offence from 2010-2. Additionally, Jay Cutler in 2013 generated 0.061 EPA/Play on 6.23 ANY/A and a 4.8 CPOE, his best season since being traded to Chicago, while being hampered by injuries. 2013 was also the first season that the Bears missed the playoffs under Cutler. Still, those are not stats that net you a megadeal, so what gives?
There is an unavoidable truth here. I've been looking for arguments to refute it. I've been bending the data to try to disprove it, but nothing has worked. I'm left with only one option. I have to state it as my opinion: I believe Jay Cutler got paid for work that Josh McCown did in 2013.
Josh McCown gave the Bears a gauge in 2013 of what their superpowered offence can do with competent QB play. The Bears believed that a (mythological) injury-free Cutler would be that guy for them going forward. They had seen it with Josh, now Jay just needed to execute it. As it turns out, Jay Cutler would begin playing a lot like Josh McCown in the seasons to come, imitating his low Average Depth of Target (aDoT) and high CPOE style.
My question is, given all the variables discussed: the adoration of his teammates; the lower price tag (no way Josh McCown is commanding 126 million); the elite performance the Bears had already seen in 2013, etcetera, why did the Bears not want Josh? Allow me to discuss and debunk several potential lines of thought.
1) Josh McCown (34) was older than Jay Cutler (30)
There is a long history of NFL teams trading years of age for quality of play at the QB position. In this most recent offseason, the Saints brought in Derek Carr (32) to replace Jameis Winston (29). The Jets and Packers are arguing to the death over who gets to pay Aaron Rodgers (39) 59 million dollars guaranteed next year. I don't believe age was a factor here.
2) Josh's low risk, low aDoT style led to lower offensive potential
This is an argument that plagued Josh, and other QBs with his style (Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, etc.) for their whole careers. This is at least an argument rooted in truth. Josh McCown did have a low aDoT of 7.9 yards in 2013, but it's a selective argument at best. Would you like to know Patrick Mahomes' combined aDoT over the 2020, 2021, and 2022 seasons? It's 7.7. Moving along.
3) Josh had a small sample size of great QB play
As discussed above, Josh accomplished way more in his six game sample than elite NFL QBs accomplished in all of 2013. Also, the best six game stretch of Jay Cutler's career has trouble competing with this six game stretch by Josh McCown, so maybe the Bears should've been fretting about Jay Cutler's sample size of great QB play.
4) The Bears did not know what they had
After running through all three logical arguments that I can think of, I'm left with this. Did the Bears even understand who they were letting go of? I know. You're going to ask "who are you to say this NFL team can't evaluate quarterbacks?" I'll tell you. I'm a 22 year old university student from Canada. I am not a better QB evaluator than the Chicago Bears, but this is one I have right, and they had wrong. This was a QB with extremely high character value, who was beloved in the locker room, and who had just had a top 10 season. Teams dream about this kind of player, and the Bears just let him go for nothing, despite all of the reasons outlined above. Despite everything I've just spent several minutes explaining to you, Josh McCown would never play for the Bears again.
As a reward for a 2013 season where he put up 0.374 EPA/Play (1st), 8.54 ANY/A (3rd), and a CPOE of 4.9 (7th), Josh McCown was given an embarrassing 2 year, 10 million dollar contract to go start for the moribund 2014 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As a reward for a 2013 season where he put up 0.061 EPA/Play (21st), 6.23 ANY/A (14th), and a 4.8 CPOE (8th), Jay Cutler was given a 7 year, 126 million dollar contract to start for the superpowered Chicago Bears. Sometimes life isn't fair.
At this point we must make a third pit stop to remark on the character of Josh McCown. After everything you've read above. After the six year wait to be a starter, after the six game stretch, after the legendary Dallas game, after the job being ripped away from him, after the mop-up duty, after the Jay Cutler deal, after the deal to go play in Tampa Bay, Josh McCown was quoted as being "super excited for him. When I came back here to work alongside Jay and to back him up I knew that this was a contract for him. I wanted to help him to put himself in a position to do what he's done . . . so I'm definitely very excited for him."
This man is not human.
Josh's career was not over. After one (admittedly horrendous) year in Tampa Bay, Josh went to go play in Cleveland in 2015. There he would (in my opinion) be the best Cleveland QB between 2007 Derek Anderson and 2018 Baker Mayfield. He would put up 0.087 EPA/Play (17th) with 6.45 ANY/A (14th) and a 0.7 CPOE (12th) for a hopeless 3-13 Cleveland team whose top two receivers were Gary Barnidge and Trent Benjamin that was looking for any reason to replace him with Johnny Manziel. This season included a turn back the clock performance where Josh threw for 457 yards and two touchdowns and generated 0.32 EPA/Play in a week 5 overtime win against Baltimore.
Josh was doing this in a season where there were playoff games started by Peyton Manning (-0.073 EPA/Play, 4.52 ANY/A, -2.4 CPOE), Brian Hoyer (0.037, 6.31, -1.7), and Teddy Bridgewater (0.07, 5.70, 3.3). There were real teams that could've used Josh McCown in 2015, but instead he was wasting one of his last good years in Cleveland.
After winning a QB battle with RG3, but missing the 2016 season due to injury, Josh would get his final chance to start, for the 2017 Jets.
The 2017 New York Jets were going into the season with no expectations. The offence was bad. The defence was bad. The offensive line was bad. The receiving corps was bad. The rushing attack was bad. The preseason over/under was set at 3.5 wins, and their starter was our 38 year old Josh McCown.
At this point we have to remark again on the character of Josh McCown. Heading into 2017, it's now been four years since his career year in 2013. He's had one good year in Cleveland, but otherwise has been rather anonymous since. Now he's heading his age 38 season with nothing looking up, the leader of a team whose primary definition of success being the first overall draft pick. It would not make him a quitter to lose motivation in this position.
What Josh does instead is remarkable. He leads the Jets to a 5-8 record. Along the way he generates 0.061 EPA/Play, 6 ANY/A, and a 5.5 CPOE for a truly bad Jets offence. These numbers look suspiciously like those of Kirk Cousins (0.06, 6.38, 0.8). The very same Kirk Cousins who was rewarded with the infamous three year, fully guaranteed contract after this season.
Where was Josh's reward? I'll give you three seconds to guess where it was.
After another season in New York spent backing up Sam Darnold, Josh was set to spend his retirement season on the 2019 Philadelphia Eagles as the backup to Carson Wentz. This is exactly what would happen. The Eagles would make the 2019 playoffs under Wentz. Maybe Josh would finally get to be on a great team after all. As it turns out, this is the reward Josh has been waiting for.
On the second series of the game, Carson Wentz would go down with an injury. The game had 51 minutes left to go, and it was Josh's time to shine. He would play his heart out, going 18 for 24 for 174 yards. The Eagles kept within one possession for the whole game, and Josh got the Eagles all the way to the Seattle 11 late in the fourth, but ultimately the Eagles lost 17-9. If this was the Josh of 2013, does anybody doubt this would've been his playoff win? Sometimes life isn't fair. This would be the last game of Josh McCown's NFL career.
Before this story ends, there is one more point to make. What more could there be to Josh's story? The answer is Jimmy Garoppolo. In 2017, Jimmy Garoppolo had a season of five starts (198 plays) of 0.335 EPA/Play, 7.51 ANY/A, 6 CPOE football. Does this sound familiar? This sounds a lot like 2013 Josh McCown to me (Jimmy G reminds me a lot of Josh McCown in general). These numbers are probably slightly better than Josh's 2013, but in an even smaller (Josh had 257 plays) sample. Jimmy G's reward for this season? He became the highest paid player in NFL history.
This is almost cruel.
Josh McCown's story is one of a player that always seemed to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Josh got to start for the 2003-5 Cardinals, 2007 Raiders, 2015 Browns, and 2017 Jets. What was anybody supposed to do with any of these teams? Josh never got a chance to shine, except for those eight precious weeks in 2013.
In those eight weeks, Josh proved himself. He was better than Jay Cutler. He was better than everybody up to and including Andrew Luck. He was as good as Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy Garoppolo was a super bowl calibre QB. So where is the love for Josh McCown? I'm sure Josh would love to figure out the answer to that question. So would I.
Josh, if you somehow ever read this story, I would like you to know you're an inspiration. While even I in the writing of this story shed a tear over how raw a deal this man got, Josh McCown just kept on playing. He never showed any bitterness, any regret, or any envy. He was just doing his best to be Josh McCown. In an NFL world where the Ravens and Lamar Jackson are arguing over the x's in his 2xx million dollar contract, Aaron Rodgers leaving Green Bay over not having enough team control, and even Matthew Stafford requesting a trade out of Detroit, we could use more Josh McCowns.
While Josh may have never gotten the NFL contract he deserved, he's priceless to me, and to all the fans that followed him and his outstanding NFL career. Never forget Josh McCown. Never forget 2013.