Revisiting Every Super Bowl MVP
Nobody cares about the Super Bowl MVP award, but I went back and corrected every vote anyway.
Welcome back to my Sports Passion Project everybody, where today I’m going to do what I do best. Take on a project that I’m not sure if anybody really cares about.
I’m going to be looking at the history of the NFL’s Super Bowl MVP award.
Speaking honestly, does anybody truly care about the Super Bowl MVP award? I don’t mean to bemoan the award, but it’s not exactly granted the importance of the NBA’s Finals MVP award. If I asked you to name the NBA Finals MVP from 2002, you probably wouldn’t take very long to tell me that it was Shaquille O’Neal, but if I asked you to name the Super Bowl MVP from 2002, I bet you’d take a longer pause.
It’s not a small name. It’s likely an even bigger name than Shaquille’s. The Super Bowl MVP from the 2002 rendition of the game was Tom Brady, but the fact that I had to look up the answer to that question (I being the operative word there) tells me all I need to know about this award’s importance, or the lack thereof.
The only time I ever seem to hear the Super Bowl MVP award brought up is when I constantly hear that Eli Manning won the award twice, and when I request that the Eli Manning lovers tell me who won the exact same award in either 2008 or 2012, to prove how important the award truly is to a fan who is not going out of their way to defend Eli Manning, they typically just block me, in lieu of answering the question.
This proves to me all I need to know. The Super Bowl MVP is a fun novelty, but not truly important in a historical sense. People may claim that they care about this award, but that typically only applies when their favourite player wins it, and it gets very little worry from anybody at any other time. Fortunately for me, I excel in covering topics that nobody cares about. I operate a publication that spends most of its time covering topics that nobody cares about. This gives me all the licence I need to dive deeply into analysing each and every one of the 59 Super Bowl MVP awards, and determining whether or not the person who won the award was actually the game’s most valuable player.
In this article, I’m going to go through every Super Bowl, from I to LIX, pretending that I am the sole authority on who wins the award. For each year, I’m going to give you a bit of a spiel about the game, and why I think the way I do, from an MVP voting perspective. Then, I’m going to tell you who gets my vote for Super Bowl MVP. Sometimes this will be the same as the real MVP. Other times it will be different.
The catch with this is that I’m going to restrain myself to historical precedents. I’m going to vote using the exact same standards that the real voters use (described momentarily). The only difference is that I’m going to apply them more consistently than has been done in real life.
In general, there are five classes of Super Bowl MVP, the voting standard for each of them is as follows:
Quarterback: The position with by far the most MVP awards, the QB of the winning team has won 34 times out of the 59 Super Bowls. For the QB to get the vote, there are two criteria that must be met:
The winning team has an offensive performance that cannot be described with the word ‘bad,’ and
There is no individual receiver clearly carrying the team.
If all of the QB’s production goes to one receiver, historical precedent is that the receiver, and not the QB, will win the Super Bowl MVP award. Otherwise, in the event of a generally good offensive performance, with no clear carry from any individual receiver, the QB will get the award.
These are conditions that are fulfilled quite often, taking as given that the team has won the game, making these relatively easy criteria to meet, which is why the QB position has the most MVPs, but there are other ways to win the Super Bowl MVP award.
Running Back: RBs do not win this award as often as you’d think. They’ve only got it seven times through the years, but a RB will win the award if each of the following two criteria are met:
The winning team has an offensive performance that cannot be described with the word ‘bad,’ and
The QB plays mediocre or worse, and
There is no individual receiver clearly carrying the team.
These three things are very difficult to accomplish at the same time. A generally good offensive performance, but with a mediocre or worse performance out of the pass game, is hard to pull off. It has happened in the Super Bowl game, but not very often, so RBs are generally left out of the voting process.
Nevertheless, I will consider them in the event that all three of these criteria hold.
Wide Receiver/Tight End: The second most common type of Super Bowl MVP winner. It’s because historical precedent dictates that they generally only have to meet one requirement:
The WR/TE is clearly carrying the team
If the offence is very productive when going to one particular player, and unproductive when going any place else, that player will typically win the Super Bowl MVP award, regardless of how good the offensive results actually are. Generally, in a bad offensive performance, that somehow wins the Super Bowl despite the lack of any standout defensive players, the MVP award will end up here.
Speaking of defensive players…
Defensive Player: As bad as this is to say, nobody cares about generally good defensive play when voting on the Super Bowl MVP. Voters want splashes, and since I’m restraining myself to real precedents, I’ll be forcing myself to look exclusively at defensive splash plays as well. Defensive players generally get a look under the following conditions:
The winning team has an offensive performance that can be described with the word ‘bad,’ and
No receiver wins the award anyway, and
The player in question has multiple defensive splash plays
I hate the emphasis on splash plays just as much as everybody else, but we’re not talking about how good players were/are in general in this article. We’re talking about how valuable they were in one game, and splash plays (sacks and forced turnovers, mostly) are the best way to generate big value as an individual defensive player.
You would think this covers it, but that’s not correct. There is one further class of Super Bowl MVP.
Losing Team Player: This is the rarest way to win a Super Bowl MVP award, but it has happened a few times. However, there are a lot of hoops to jump through, which explains why this is so rare. Here are the criteria:
The winning team has an offensive performance that can be described with the word ‘bad,’ and
No receiver on the winning team wins the award anyway, and
No defensive player on the winning team has multiple splash plays, and
Somebody on the losing team fits all of their positional criteria
Like I said, that’s a lot of hoops, but especially in the days where offence was harder to come by, it can happen from time to time.
Now that the voting criteria are settled, let’s get to it, dissecting every Super Bowl MVP vote, one by one:
Super Bowl I - Green Bay Packers def. Kansas City Chiefs 35-10
Real MVP: QB Bart Starr
We begin with the very first Super Bowl, where the NFL champion Green Bay Packers absolutely walloped the AFL champion Kansas City Chiefs by a 35-10 score. With an offensive performance this good, I don’t mind giving the Super Bowl MVP award to the QB, but using modern voting criteria, this is a miss.
I don’t necessarily mind the contemporary voters getting this one incorrect by modern criteria, because when they were voting on this game in 1967, there was no such thing as modern voting criteria, but if this Super Bowl had happened in 2024, I’m confident the MVP award would’ve gone to third string TE Max McGee.
While Bart completed 16 of his 23 passes for 250 yards for two touchdowns and took only three sacks, all fantastic numbers for 1967, seven of his completions, 139 of his yards, and both touchdowns went to the rarely used receiver.
Funnily enough, Max McGee caught more passes in this Super Bowl game (seven) than he did all season (four). The Packers started two TEs this game. Max was not one of them, but it cannot be denied that he was carrying the offence, as it was dramatically more productive throwing the ball to him than it was trying to accomplish anything else.
My MVP Vote: TE Max McGee
Super Bowl II - Green Bay Packers def. Oakland Raiders 33-14
Real MVP: QB Bart Starr
Believe it or not, just two Super Bowls deep, we’ve already found our first default MVP. We all know what I mean by the word ‘default,’ where the voters simply throw up their hands and give the award to the QB, more based on the lack of anybody else to give it to than on that QB’s own performance.
Just like last year, the Packers pulled ahead quick and this game was never competitive, but despite having an offensive performance too good to justify giving the award to a defensive player, there is no offensive player that reaches out to grab this award by the neck this time around like Max McGee did last year.
Bart’s numbers of 13 completions on 24 attempts for 202 yards and just one touchdown this time around are nowhere near as good as they were last year, but the difference is that this time none of his other offensive players are so overwhelmingly productive that they snatch the award from him. Nobody catches the ball more than four times. No RB gets more than 62 yards.
The 1968 Super Bowl was a generally good offensive performance for the Green Bay Packers, spread roughly equally over all the offensive players. When that happens in the Super Bowl game, it generally comes with a shoulder shrug and an MVP award for the QB. I see no reason to differ.
My MVP Vote: QB Bart Starr
Super Bowl III - New York Jets def. Baltimore Colts 16-7
Real MVP: QB Joe Namath
Another tough one.
21 first downs as a team and 337 yards of offence as a team for the Jets make this a team offensive performance too good to allow the MVP to go to a defensive player, elsewise Randy Beverly and his two INTs would’ve been the clear pick. Looking at the offensive options, the choice that leaps off the page is WR George Sauer, who accounts for 133 of Joe Namath’s 206 yards passing in Super Bowl III. Simply looking at the stat page, I wondered why George was not given the MVP of this game in real life, and then I saw it.
In the first quarter, George put the football on the ground, fumbling inside his own ten yard line. This is a play that could’ve swung the whole game, as the Jets did not need to give any free points to a team so much better than they were. Thankfully, the Colts turned the ball right back over to the Jets, which makes this fumble less than game determinative, but that’s not George Sauer’s fault. He gets no credit from me, and in a one game sample, just one disastrous play like this is enough to take him out of the running.
This means we are left once again to throw our hands in the air, and give the award to the QB. If George Sauer hadn’t had the fumble inside his own ten yard line, this award would’ve been his, but he did, so it’s not.
My MVP Vote: QB Joe Namath
Super Bowl IV - Kansas City Chiefs def. Minnesota Vikings 23-7
Real MVP: QB Len Dawson
I did not expect voting on these awards was going to be so difficult.
This is the first Super Bowl that does not feature an offensive performance good enough from the winners that the award absolutely has to go to an offensive player. Looking at the offence, there is no Chief that stands out, which frees me up to look at defensive players, but looking at the other side of the ball, no KC Chief defender finished this game with multiple splash plays. This left me circling back to look harder at the KC offensive players.
Len Dawson completed 12 passes for 142 yards. The Chiefs’ most productive receiver had 81 yards. Neither of those stat lines are Super Bowl MVP worthy. This actually led me to see if there were any Minnesota Vikings that were worthy of consideration, and for a lot of my time analysing this game, I had my heart set on giving this award to Vikings’ WR John Henderson. Unfortunately for him, he George Sauer’d himself, turning the ball over in his own territory. You cannot be a Super Bowl MVP as a non-QB if you do that, even if you’re the only Minnesota Viking that acted like you were playing in the Super Bowl.
This leaves me circling back to the Chiefs’ offence for the third time, where somebody has to win this award. Do I give it to the QB who completed 12 balls, six of them to RBs, or do I give it to Otis Taylor, the only non-RB on the Chiefs to catch a ball all day? Even with this, it’s just six catches for 81 yards. I think that falls well short of the intended meaning of the word ‘carry.’
I’m going to give this award to Len Dawson, with the caveat that you must understand that this is the worst performance ever to win Super Bowl MVP. He does not deserve this award, but nobody in Super Bowl IV does. Somebody has to get it.
My MVP Vote: QB Len Dawson
Super Bowl V - Baltimore Colts def. Dallas Cowboys 16-13
Real MVP: LB Chuck Howley
It’s a warning shot for how entertaining this game wasn’t that a defensive player from the losing side won Super Bowl MVP. After four years of fairly solid offence in the Super Bowl game, we’re about to sink deep into the malaise for several years. There will not be many points scored in Super Bowl games in the early 1970s.
Considering the Baltimore Colts won this game with just 14 first downs and seven turnovers out of their offence, this is absolutely an offensive performance that can be described with the word ‘bad.’ That already restricts the voting to only receivers and defensive players, and no receiver on the Colts caught more than three balls in this game. None of them are worthy of an MVP award.
This passes the buck to Baltimore Colt defenders, and would you look at that? Nobody has more than one defensive splash play. Just like last year, this opens up the floor to Cowboy players winning the MVP award. None of their offensive players are up to snuff either, but when we finally get to the tenth and final out of the ten positional criteria groups, defensive players on the losing side, we find Cowboys’ LB Chuck Howley, and his two INTs, both in extremely important situations, that each took points off the board for Baltimore.
Can it be a hot take to say that I agree with what really happened? I never thought I could look at a game using modern voting criteria, and find that a defensive player from the losing side would still be named MVP today. Nevertheless, I think he would be.
My MVP Vote: LB Chuck Howley
Super Bowl VI - Dallas Cowboys def. Miami Dolphins 24-3
Real MVP: QB Roger Staubach
The Cowboys are back for revenge coming off their loss in the Super Bowl last season, and they get it in a big way, making mincemeat out of Don Shula and the Dolphins. It’s clear that these poor Dolphins were just not ready yet for a problem of this magnitude, as they got outdone in terms of first downs 23-10. That’s even wider gulf in quality between these two teams than the score suggests.
Obviously, 23 first downs in 1972 is a performance that means the MVP must be a Cowboy offensive player, but I’m not so sure it should be Roger Staubach. He completed just 12 balls for only 119 yards. No Cowboy receiver caught more than two passes. I would definitely say this fits the criteria of ‘mediocre or worse,’ and leaves the door open for a RB to sweep in and steal the Super Bowl MVP award, and I think one does.
With 19 carries, 95 yards, and only five of those carries going for less than four yards, my vote for Super Bowl VI MVP goes to Duane Thomas, who was constantly keeping his team ahead of the chains such that they didn’t need great production from their QB to have a great team day offensively, which is good, because Dallas didn’t get great production from their QB.
My MVP Vote: RB Duane Thomas
Super Bowl VII - Miami Dolphins def. Washington Redskins 14-7
Real MVP: FS Jake Scott
Uh oh. Free Safety won MVP. Bad offence inbound.
This was bad. It was really bad. The Miami Dolphins capped off their undefeated season in the 1973 Super Bowl, but they didn’t exactly do it with a bang. They did it with 12 first downs total, and just 69 net passing yards. This horrendous offensive performance ensures right off the top that the MVP must be a Dolphin defender, if applicable, and Jake Scott, with his two INTs, one in a huge moment, standing in his own end zone, is the clear and obvious pick amongst the Miami defensive unit.
I will note that Jake was absolutely horrendous as a kick returner in this game, which brings his value down, but in the absence of any turnovers on special teams, I don’t think it impacts him too much. This is the easiest pick for Super Bowl MVP we’ve come across so far.
My MVP Vote: FS Jake Scott
Super Bowl VIII - Miami Dolphins def. Minnesota Vikings 24-7
Real MVP: RB Larry Csonka
This is the prototypical RB Super Bowl MVP award, as the Dolphins achieve 21 first downs in this game, with just 63 net passing yards. I wish there was more to say, because I’ve never had a chance to talk about Larry Csonka before, but this pick is so obvious that it robs itself of any spotlight. Probably the easiest Super Bowl MVP pick in the history of the Super Bowl game.
My MVP Vote: RB Larry Csonka
Super Bowl IX - Pittsburgh Steelers def. Minnesota Vikings 16-6
Real MVP: RB Franco Harris
Nothing epitomises the sloppy games that the Steel Curtain are remembered for better than this game, in which they achieved 17 first downs with only 84 net passing yards. This is very similar to Larry Csonka last year. Going through all the criteria, the only competition Franco has for this award is Vikings’ DE Alan Page, but when a team gives up 249 yards rushing, it’s not possible to give the Super Bowl MVP award to a defensive lineman, even if very few of those rushing yards were gained going towards Alan Page.
Once again, you would not dream up better circumstances for a RB to win the Super Bowl MVP than Franco Harris was blessed with in this game. With their offensive game plan, he was the only Steeler who was ever going to have a true chance to win this award, and to his credit, he went out there and won it.
My MVP Vote: RB Franco Harris
Super Bowl X - Pittsburgh Steelers def. Dallas Cowboys 21-17
Real MVP: WR Lynn Swann
This game is where the precedent of the carrying receiver being given the award began to be set in real life. I applied this precedent to Super Bowl I in order to give the award to Max McGee, but Lynn Swann is the true originator.
This was a bad offensive performance out of Pittsburgh, as they tried the same strategy that worked last year, and it did not work this year. Franco Harris averaged a mere three yards per carry this time around, and was awful in general. Terry Bradshaw was not good individually either, completing just nine of his 19 passes thrown, and taking two sacks on just 21 drop backs. The Pittsburgh Steelers finished the whole game with just 13 first downs, and they won.
By all means, this is the one that got away from the Dallas Cowboys. The reason they don’t have six Super Bowl championships right now. The only good offensive plays Pittsburgh had all day were three individual passes of 32, 53, and 64 yards, all completed to Lynn Swann. If you want to talk about a WR carrying, this game is where you begin the conversation.
If Lynn Swann did not play for the Pittsburgh Steelers in this game, the Steelers would not have won it. They would not have gotten close to winning it. With Lynn Swann on the field, they won the game. That’s what MVP means to me.
My MVP Vote: WR Lynn Swann
Super Bowl XI - Oakland Raiders def. Minnesota Vikings 32-14
Real MVP: WR Fred Biletnikoff
I don’t know about this one, chief.
The voters thought they could get cute here, having voted a receiver as MVP last year. They used that precedent to sneak the award into the career of the legend of the game Fred Biletnikoff, who was on his way out of the league at the time of this Super Bowl. This award is all about narrative, and nothing about what happened on the actual field in the actual game.
In the actual game, Fred did not touch the ball until the Raiders were already up 10-0, and did not catch the 49 yard TD pass that he won this MVP award for catching until the Raiders were already up 19-7. Needless to say, this falls well short of Fred carrying this team. I have nothing against Fred Biletnikoff, but I don’t do narrative awards. We’re watching the actual game here.
In the actual game, it comes down to two people, either QB Ken Stabler or RB Clarence Davis. At first, Clarence’s numbers blow you away. 16 carries for 137 yards in 1977 is absurd, but when you look a little deeper, a lot of those yards came at meaningless times in the game, which makes me shy away from giving him this award. Even Stabler did very little for the whole second half, as the Raiders stopped throwing after going into the half up 16-0.
I don’t want to give this award to Clarence Davis. I don’t want to give it to Ken Stabler either. It’s definitely not going to Fred Biletnikoff again, so in situations like this, we shrug our shoulders and say the QB wins.
My MVP Vote: QB Ken Stabler
Super Bowl XII - Dallas Cowboys def. Denver Broncos 27-10
Real MVP(s): DE Harvey Martin, DT Randy White
The only time in Super Bowl history where it became acceptable to simply name two MVPs. Does this mean I have to replace two MVPs? Or only the one?
Either way, it comes down to either Roger Staubach, or one of these defensive guys. It all depends on whether you think 17 first downs and 325 yards of total offence is an offensive performance good enough to mandate that an offensive player wins the MVP award. It’s right on the borderline.
I personally think that if this Super Bowl had happened this past February, this offensive performance would’ve been barely good enough for the voters to be able to convince themselves to vote for an offensive player. Patrick Mahomes has won Super Bowl MVP for worse than this. As such, I’ll take the opportunity now to replace the MVP I took from Roger in 1972, and since we’re naming two MVPs in 1978, Harvey Martin gets to tag along too.
My MVP Vote: QB Roger Staubach, DE Harvey Martin
Super Bowl XIII - Pittsburgh Steelers def. Dallas Cowboys 35-31
Real MVP: QB Terry Bradshaw
The first good Super Bowl game ever, by modern standards.
When I say the word good, I mean that there were a lot of points scored. I don’t mean this game was actually very close. The Steelers had built up a 35-17 lead by the time there were six minutes left in the fourth. Dallas got cute by scoring, recovering an onside kick, and scoring again, to narrow the score to 35-31 at the end, but that doesn’t mean they were ever close to actually winning this game.
357 yards of offence in 1979 is absolutely an offensive performance good enough to mandate the MVP award goes to an offensive player, and Lynn Swann and John Stallworth getting 100+ yards each, and therefore eliminating each other from consideration, because neither clearly carried the team, makes this an easy vote for Terry Bradshaw.
My MVP Vote: QB Terry Bradshaw
Super Bowl XIV - Pittsburgh Steelers def. Los Angeles Rams 31-19
Real MVP: QB Terry Bradshaw
Not quite as high scoring of a game as last year, but if you like football games that are actually close, I would recommend this 1980 Super Bowl over 1979 any day of the week.
The Steelers actually spend a lot of the second half behind, despite coming into this game as ten point favourites against a Rams team that was lucky just to get into the playoffs, but they do clutch up in the fourth quarter, turning a 19-17 fourth quarter deficit into a 31-19 win.
From an MVP vote perspective, the project that’s been undertaken to provide play-by-play data for every single Super Bowl allows me to tell you that Terry Bradshaw generated 0.656 unadjusted EPA/Play in this game. It’s a sign of the times that a 0.656 EPA/Play QB gets to touch the ball just 24 times, meanwhile the Pittsburgh rush offence gets 37 carries at a putrid average of 2.2 yards per carry, for a team that was behind for a significant portion of the second half.
Nevertheless, half of the Pittsburgh offence pulled through. I can’t take the award away from a 0.656 EPA/Play QB, especially with how things went when Pittsburgh finally started throwing the ball in the fourth quarter. Jack Lambert is the strongest honourable mention we’ve seen so far with his performance in this game, but when it comes to LB vs QB in an award discussion, QB wins.
My MVP Vote: QB Terry Bradshaw
Super Bowl XV - Oakland Raiders def. Philadelphia Eagles 27-10
Real MVP: QB Jim Plunkett
I’ll be honest. When I was looking at this game, I was looking for reasons to take this award away from Jim Plunkett, because he’s the Eli Manning of the 1980s. Quite frankly, Jim is not a QB worthy of historical note, and I’m tired of people thinking of him as if he is, just because he got carried to two Super Bowl championships. This is exactly my opinion of Eli Manning also. We’ll get to his MVP awards later.
Jim Plunkett is the reason that the Raiders came into this game as underdogs, but, no matter how much I want to, I cannot claim that he isn’t the reason they won it. The Raiders’ offensive performance on the whole for this game does not look that good, but that’s only because Oakland shut the offence down entirely after going up 24-3 with five minutes to go in the third quarter.
Apologies go out to Raiders LB Rod Martin, whose three INTs in this game would’ve made him an absolute lock for this award, had the Oakland offence not played so well for the first 40 minutes of this game. Once again it’s LB vs QB in an award discussion. QB wins.
My MVP Vote: QB Jim Plunkett
Super Bowl XVI - San Francisco 49ers def. Cincinnati Bengals 26-21
Real MVP: QB Joe Montana
This game is awkward.
It’s awkward because when you look back at the 1980s 49ers as a sportswriter, you’re supposed to kneel before the altar to Joe Montana, and worship every game he ever played, but this was just not that great. The 49ers had 148 net passing yards in this game. This 1982 Super Bowl is actually the first real occurrence of something that’s going to be a lot more common as we move forward.
The true MVP of this game is the 49ers’ defensive unit, but since this is an individual award, and no individual 49er defender stood out that much, the voters threw up their hands and gave the award to the QB who completed only 14 passes in the game. That’s 14 passes at 0.453 EPA/Play though, so it’s tough to legitimately argue that the award should’ve gone to anyone else.
For a while, I was seriously considering Bengals’ TE Dan Ross for this award, and he didn’t do anything to disqualify himself. He was clearly the most valuable Bengal, and has a real argument to this day for the being most valuable player on the field in this game, but if the winning team has a QB operating at 0.453 EPA/Play, you can’t give the MVP award to the TE of the losing side. You just can’t do it.
If Joe’s EPA/Play had been in the 0.2 range instead, I think I would’ve given this award to the losing TE, but at that point he likely would’ve been the winning TE. In the absence of any individual defender to take the credit for San Francisco’s defensive successes, that makes Joe Montana the only rational pick here.
My MVP Vote: QB Joe Montana
Super Bowl XVII - Washington Redskins def. Miami Dolphins 27-17
Real MVP: RB John Riggins
Clear and obvious, much like Larry Csonka in 1974 and Franco Harris in 1975. Washington had 400 total yards of offence in this game, and only 124 of them came through the air. There were 14 carries for people not named John Riggins, but the majority of those 276 yards rushing belong to John personally. There’s nobody else that can rationally be given the award.
My MVP Vote: RB John Riggins
Super Bowl XVIII - Los Angeles Raiders def. Washington Redskins 38-9
Real MVP: RB Marcus Allen
I think I’m losing my touch.
I’ve agreed with the real life voters every single Super Bowl since 1978, but now that we’re in 1984, I’m presented with a situation that will truly test my voting chops. Let’s see if I’m ready for it.
It’s a lot like 1982. The fact that Washington scored nine points means the real MVP of this game is the Raider defence. All of them, but in the absence of one player truly stepping up, that leaves me to look at the offensive players. The real voters chose Marcus Allen, who seems like an easy choice, if you look exclusively at the stat sheet. 191 rushing yards is a lot of rushing yards, but I just don’t like the distribution. Of those 191 yards, 114 of them came on just two carries. One of 75 yards. One of 39 yards, both after the fight for the win was already over.
Of Marcus’s 22 touches in the game, only 12 of them were successful. 54 percent is a fantastic success rate over a season, but in one game, it’s often possible to find somebody doing better than that. Let’s survey some other options.
Jim Plunkett was barely positive in this game in terms of EPA/Play, hovering around zero despite football reference numbers that look acceptably good, so he won’t be winning. This leaves the only other real candidate for this award, WR Cliff Branch. He did violate the cardinal rule, fumbling the football in his own territory, but he didn’t do it until late, when the game was already over.
Comparing the total EPA figures, Cliff Branch has about four flat in this game, compared to Marcus Allen, who has about 15 flat. That in itself makes the fact that I’m wavering over this seem silly on the surface, but when you look deeper and see that nine of Marcus’s 15 total EPA came on two carries, which both happened long past the point where this game was out of reach for Washington, and Cliff lost about four EPA on a fumble, also past the point where the game was already out of reach, it makes the problem more nuanced.
Despite the name of the award being the ‘Most Valuable Player,’ it’s not really about which player on the field was most valuable. For instance, in his three Super Bowl wins, Patrick Mahomes has won MVP all three times, but he’s generated the most EPA on his team just once. It’s about more than who generated the most total value for his team. There are situations that arise that force you to look further than the literal phrase ‘Most Valuable Player,’ which leads me to this case, where I think the contributions of a player who generated four total EPA were more impactful on the end result of the game than the contributions of the player who generated 15.
My MVP Vote: WR Cliff Branch
Super Bowl XIX - San Francisco 49ers def. Miami Dolphins 38-16
Real MVP: QB Joe Montana
What do you want me to say? A virtuoso offensive performance, spread out roughly evenly amongst four different 49er receivers who each accounted for between 60-80 yards through the air. Not every vote can be an agoniser like 1984 was. This is the prototypical QB MVP.
My MVP Vote: QB Joe Montana
Super Bowl XX - Chicago Bears def. New England Patriots 46-10
Real MVP: DE Richard Dent
Hear me out on this.
I know it doesn’t fit the narrative for the 1985 Bears’ season to end with an offensive player winning Super Bowl MVP, but the Bears ended this game with 408 yards of offence. That’s the most in the history of the Super Bowl as of 1986. Do you think that if a Super Bowl game were to happen in the modern era, in which a team sets the record for most yards of total offence in the history of the Super Bowl, the MVP of that game would go to a defensive player?
There’s just no way. I’m sorry.
It doesn’t fit the mystique of the 1985 Bears, but if we’re being objective here, which the real voters aren’t all the time, but which I try my best to be, the MVP of this game must go to an offensive player. One hundred times out of one hundred it must go to an offensive player.
It’s a well known fact at this point that the rushing offence in this game for Chicago was horrendous, and the fact that he was so horrendous in the Super Bowl bothered Walter Payton for years, even though he won it. Therefore, the MVP award must go to a member of the Chicago passing offence. By process of elimination, the winner becomes obvious. Willie Gault accounts for 129 of Chicago’s 241 net passing yards in this game. That’s carrying in every sense of the word.
I’ll reiterate that we’re not talking about which side of the ball was better in general here. We’re talking about what was the most valuable in one game, and in Super Bowl XX, the Bears didn’t need their almighty defence. They would’ve won easily, even if their opponents had 20 first downs and 300 yards of offence. They would’ve won 46-30 instead of 46-10.
On this day, the offence was just more valuable than the defence, and the most valuable player on the offence was Willie Gault.
My MVP Vote: WR Willie Gault
Super Bowl XXI - New York Giants def. Denver Broncos 39-20
Real MVP: QB Phil Simms
Much like Terry Bradshaw and Jim Plunkett, Phil Simms deserving his Super Bowl MVP does not remove his status as an overrated player, but he generated 0.798 EPA/Play in this game, in what remains a true contender for the best Super Bowl played by any player ever.
Enough said.
My MVP Vote: QB Phil Simms
Super Bowl XXII - Washington Redskins def. Denver Broncos 42-10
Real MVP: QB Doug Williams
Remember when I told you just a few years ago that the Chicago Bears set a record for offence in the Super Bowl with 408 yards? In 1988, the Redskins break that glass ceiling into powder by putting up 602 yards of total offence.
Here, we find ourselves in a position fairly familiar to those who follow my publication, facing the fundamental question of who gets the credit: the rush attack that consistently puts a QB in good positions, so that he can more easily make electric plays, or the QB who actually makes those electric plays? In general, the answer to this question is that it depends on whether the QB in question was drafted in the first round or not. Funnily enough, Doug Williams was drafted in the first round back in 1978, but I don’t think that has any impact in this specific case.
There is a bit of Fred Biletnikoff going on here, in that the voters for this award wanted to give it to Doug Williams, because of everything that Doug Williams starting this Super Bowl meant, but unlike Fred Biletnikoff, Doug actually has a real case for deserving the award.
Much like my analysis for 1984, I’ll be entirely excluding the second half here, because going into half with a 35-7 score means nothing that happened in the second half had any impact on the final outcome at all. In the first half, RB Timmy Smith generated 0.503 EPA/Play personally, to constantly put Doug in great positions, and Doug capitalised on those positions by generating 0.623 EPA/Play himself, but both these two have real competition in the form of WR Ricky Sanders, who generates one whole EPA per target, for 15 flat total EPA in just one half.
Any one of these players would’ve been one of the most obvious MVP picks ever, had they happened in isolation. Since they happened all at once, I am forced to hair split, and I think I’m going to choose to give in to my bias here. I also want Doug Williams to win this award, because of what it means to the future of the game.
If I were being objective, it’s probably Ricky Sanders, but I’m not, and I’m admitting that. I like that Doug Williams won this Super Bowl MVP, and I want to keep history just the way it is in this regard.
My MVP Vote: QB Doug Williams
Super Bowl XXIII - San Francisco 49ers def. Cincinnati Bengals 20-16
Real MVP: WR Jerry Rice
People talk a lot about how stacked the 49ers’ offence became around the time of the Joe Montana to Steve Young transition. However, here we are at the big game. John Taylor has ten total scrimmage yards, and Joe Montana has 126 yards total throwing to people that are not Jerry Rice, compared to the 215 yards that feature Jerry on the end of them.
It’s no contest.
I normally have very little respect for awards voters, but they nailed this one. It would’ve been very easy to simply allow Joe Montana to walk away from this game with another rather toothless Super Bowl MVP award, but the most valuable player in this game was clearly Jerry Rice, and the voters backed him up on that. A rare time that a tough call, in my opinion, was called correctly by the real voters.
My MVP Vote: WR Jerry Rice
Super Bowl XXIV - San Francisco 49ers def. Denver Broncos 55-10
Real MVP: QB Joe Montana
Once again we get to the big game, and John Taylor is nowhere to be found, but once again he is not needed, as this game got out of hand almost instantly, with the 49ers using a two minute drill at the end of the first half to pull ahead 27-3. Nothing that happened after that truly matters, but the 49ers kept scoring anyway, eventually bumping it all the way up to 55-10, just for fun I guess. The 1989 Broncos are very far away from the 1988 Bengals. You can do this clowning act on them, in a way that couldn’t be done last year.
Joe Montana finishes this game with a casual 0.811 EPA/Play. Even though Jerry Rice contributes better than half of Joe’s production for the second year in a row, and has an ungodly 1.62 EPA per target, it’s only nine targets. That’s not quite enough to take the MVP away from a 0.811 EPA/Play QB. If Joe would’ve thrown to Jerry more, Jerry would’ve won MVP again, but since Joe didn’t, and still put up one of the best Super Bowl performances ever, that’s not really Jerry carrying is it?
My MVP Vote: QB Joe Montana
Super Bowl XXV - New York Giants def. Buffalo Bills 20-19
Real MVP: RB Ottis Anderson
For only the fifth time out of the 25 Super Bowls so far, in Super Bowl XXV there is no cutoff I implement after which nothing happens matters. As this is one of the first Super Bowls ever to come straight down to the wire, every play in this game is important to the final outcome.
With 24 first downs in this game, it’s absolutely the case that the MVP should be won by a New York offensive player. However, I’m not wholly convinced there is anybody to give it to. There are no receivers that deserve the award this year, but Ottis does have to compete against QB Jeff Hostetler. Jeff’s performance is not the best in the world, but it doesn’t take the best in the world to beat what Ottis could muster.
Ottis Anderson touched the football 22 times in this game, and made the Giants more likely to score just ten times. That’s a 45 percent personal success rate. Like I said before, this is pretty good over a whole season for a RB, but in one game, there must be somebody better than this. This is a league average RB performance. Ottis was not even the best RB in this game, getting comprehensively outplayed by Buffalo’s Thurman Thomas.
I am non-trivially giving a look to Thurman Thomas, and as there are no individual Giant defenders that stand out on the stat page, I think he has a chance at this award. He certainly played better than Ottis Anderson did, trying his best to make up for a really bad Jim Kelly performance in this game, and coming within one FG of getting that job done. It’s not his fault that his kicker missed it.
I think the true competition for this Super Bowl MVP award is actually between Jeff Hostetler and Thurman Thomas, and I understand that Jeff gets a big bonus for being on the winning team, but he generated 0.149 EPA/Play in this game. 5.95 total EPA. Compare this with Thomas, who generated 0.544 EPA/Play, for 11.42 total EPA, on a team that only scored 19 points in total, and I think I have to come to the conclusion that Thurman (who was both Buffalo’s most productive rusher and most productive receiver) was so clearly the most valuable player in this game that it doesn’t matter to me that his team lost.
My MVP Vote: RB Thurman Thomas
Super Bowl XXVI - Washington Redskins def. Buffalo Bills 37-24
Real MVP: QB Mark Rypien
That was spicy wasn’t it? Deviating to picking a player from the losing team is not something I expected to ever do. I thought I was going to talk a big game about it, but never actually do it. Nevertheless, I did it, so we have to come down from that excitement with two of the easiest MVP votes in Super Bowl history.
We begin in 1992, where the Washington pass game is extremely productive, and Gary Clark and Art Monk each getting 100+ receiving yards disqualifies each of them from any argument of having carried the team. That leaves only one choice. Mark Rypien it is.
I believe this is the only Canadian Super Bowl MVP, so you’d best believe that my vote was never ever going to be to change this outcome. I’m glad he’s the objective choice too, so I don’t have to admit to giving in to my biases twice in one article.
My MVP Vote: QB Mark Rypien
Super Bowl XXVII - Dallas Cowboys def. Buffalo Bills 52-17
Real MVP: QB Troy Aikman
A very similar story to last year, in terms of the MVP voting, except with no Canada involved. The Dallas pass attack outstrips their rushing attack, and TE Jay Novacek is productive enough to disqualify Michael Irvin from consideration, all of which leaves only one reasonable choice.
My MVP Vote: QB Troy Aikman
Super Bowl XXVIII - Dallas Cowboys def. Buffalo Bills 30-13
Real MVP: RB Emmitt Smith
1994 is a vote I can get some juice out of.
Although, perhaps that applies only if disagreeing with the official vote is juicy enough in itself to justify special attention, because frankly, I’m not sure how Emmitt won this. He certainly doesn’t deserve it. Emmitt touched the ball 34 times in this game, and made his team more likely to score with just 16 of them. That’s a personal success rate of 46 percent. That’s only slightly better than Ottis Anderson in 1990, and that performance was so mediocre I took his award away to give it to a player on the losing side.
I know what you may be thinking, but no. It’s not going to be Thurman Thomas again. He had 16 carries for 37 yards in this game. That’s extremely bad. I won’t be rerouting the MVP trophy to Buffalo this time. I’ll merely be rerouting it elsewhere in Dallas. This could’ve been the perfect opportunity to Michael Irvin to sneak through the door and get himself a Super Bowl MVP award, but he finished this game with only 66 yards receiving.
The unfortunately boring answer is that I have no idea how this award was not given to Troy Aikman again. He generated more EPA/Play than Emmitt, and more total EPA than Emmitt, on fewer touches than Emmitt got. His football reference numbers for this game look a little ugly, but that’s not my problem. He was clearly the most valuable Cowboy, for the second year in a row.
My MVP Vote: QB Troy Aikman
Super Bowl XXIX - San Francisco 49ers def. San Diego Chargers 49-26
Real MVP: QB Steve Young
It’s like 1989 and 1990 all over again. John Taylor is nowhere to be found when Super Bowl time rolls around. That’s okay though, because the 49ers generate 0.657 EPA/Play as a team passing offence without any significant production from him.
The story is exactly the same as it was in those years. Steve Young generates 0.606 EPA/Play individually on this day. Jerry Rice generates a ludicrous 1.27 EPA per target. It would not be wrong to give the award to either of these players, but as it’s clear that Steve was still somewhat productive throwing to other players, just not so wildly productive as when he threw to Jerry, I’m going to say that this award goes to Steve.
My MVP Vote: QB Steve Young
Super Bowl XXX - Dallas Cowboys def. Pittsburgh Steelers 27-17
Real MVP: CB Larry Brown
1995 is the first (and only) time that a corner won the Super Bowl MVP trophy, and it comes as a result of the first Super Bowl in years that doesn’t feature a very good offensive performance out of the winning team. The Cowboys convert only 15 first downs in this game, which means I’m absolutely open to looking at defensive players, but let’s go down the checklist first.
For the second time now, the productivity of TE Jay Novacek precludes Michael Irvin from having a real chance at the Super Bowl MVP trophy. Emmitt Smith does not come close this time either, finishing this game with 18 carries for 49 yards, 23 of them on one play. This is one of the worst games of Emmitt Smith’s NFL career. He cannot win MVP either.
This leaves either Troy Aikman, a defensive player, or a player from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Troy Aikman generated 0.414 EPA/Play in this game. The offence as a whole stunk, because Troy (for some reason) was allowed to touch the ball only 25 times all day, but he was very good, contributing 10.35 total EPA to the effort. However, this 10.35 does not catch up to the 11.69 total EPA that Larry Brown’s two INTs (and their associated returns) bought the team.
As such, I believe the most valuable Cowboy in Super Bowl XXX was Larry Brown. The real voters got another tough call right.
My MVP Vote: CB Larry Brown
Super Bowl XXXI - Green Bay Packers def. New England Patriots 35-21
Real MVP: KR/PR Desmond Howard
From the only time a corner ever won Super Bowl MVP to the only time a full-time returner ever won it. Super Bowl MVP voters were getting frisky in the mid 1990s.
I’m not an expert on special teams, so my evaluation here is going to be very data heavy. At its heart, the question as to whether the voters got this MVP vote right is a simple one: the Packers got 6.91 total EPA from returns in this game. Can any other Packer match that number?
Not on offence they can’t, as Brett Favre had one of his worst games of the whole season in the Super Bowl, as did RB Dorsey Levens. No Green Bay receiver caught more than three balls, so it’s not going to be any of them either. Thankfully though, all this offensive ineptitude leads to an offensive performance as a whole that was not sufficient to preclude consideration from defensive players, and once defensive players become available, one very big name becomes difficult to ignore.
Reggie White had three sacks in this game. All of them were in the fourth quarter. All of them were massively detrimental to the comeback effort the Patriots were trying to make. In retrospect, they become even more important, knowing that Reggie was covering for a Green Bay offence that is able to muster just two first downs in the whole quarter. They were there to be came back on, but Reggie White decided that was not happening.
I like the cute idea of giving the MVP award to a kick returner, but I think Reggie’s efforts had more impact deterring the comeback than Desmond Howard’s did.
My MVP Vote: DE Reggie White
Super Bowl XXXII - Denver Broncos def. Green Bay Packers 31-24
Real MVP: RB Terrell Davis
You could convince me that this game takes place in 1974 instead of 1998, as the Denver Broncos convert 21 first downs, despite the pass game being held to just 123 net yards. John Elway gets handily outplayed by Brett Favre, and the Denver Broncos win anyway, because of the efforts of Terrell Davis and the rushing game.
My MVP Vote: RB Terrell Davis
Super Bowl XXXIII - Denver Broncos def. Atlanta Falcons 34-19
Real MVP: QB John Elway
It was about time for John Elway to come through in a Super Bowl game.
After spending a whole career getting humiliated on the sport’s biggest stage, generating big time negative EPA in the Super Bowl game in 1987, 1988, 1990, and 1998, it’s 1999 where John finally comes through, generating 0.559 EPA/Play against a 1998 Falcons team that I refuse to allow you to underrate.
WR Rod Smith has a Jerry Rice style case for being by far the most important receiver on either team, but I think Ed McCaffrey’s 76 yards receiving are barely enough to disqualify this as a Super Bowl MVP case. I thought Rod deserved a mention, but this is John’s award. It likely would’ve been even his if he weren’t the objective choice, because voters would’ve been looking for any excuse to give it to him, but he played great, so it didn’t matter anyway.
My MVP Vote: QB John Elway
Super Bowl XXXIV - St Louis Rams def. Tennessee Titans 23-16
Real MVP: QB Kurt Warner
There have not been many QBs who have been able to drag their team to the Super Bowl championship, while carrying a horrendous rush offence as an anchor around their neck in the Super Bowl game. Terry Bradshaw did it in 1980. Troy Aikman did it in 1996, and I’m struggling to come up with other examples. Generally, once you get to this high of a level, in the years before the 2004 rule changes to make passing easier, it’s hard to carry along a rush offence that can’t hold up their end of the bargain.
When I tell you that the Rams generate -0.64 EPA/Play as a rushing offence (oh my God), it makes clear immediately who the Super Bowl MVP ought to be.
This game is perhaps the ultimate example of why I love Dick Vermeil so much as a coach. It would’ve been really easy to ride a bad Marshall Faulk game into an inexplicable Super Bowl loss. A lot of coaches would have, but Dick Vermeil does not. He mans up, realises this rush attack does not have what it takes, and commits to passing on every down almost immediately. Not many NFL coaches have the stones to do this. Even great ones throughout history have often preferred losing with conventional methods to winning unconventionally, but Dick was not that type of coach, and this choice to get off the rush game quickly, before it killed too many of the Rams’ offensive drives, is the choice that won them the Super Bowl.
If I could give the Super Bowl MVP award to a coach, I would, but Kurt Warner did generate a casual 0.477 EPA/Play in this game, while being forced into touching the ball on 48 of the Rams’ 58 non-penalty offensive plays, so I have no trouble giving it to him as a surrogate.
My MVP Vote: QB Kurt Warner
Super Bowl XXXV - Baltimore Ravens def. New York Giants 34-7
Real MVP: LB Ray Lewis
From the Greatest Show on Turf to the 2000 Ravens. How much do you want to bet no QB generates 0.477 EPA/Play in this game?
As you can probably guess from the teams involved, both offences are absolutely horrendous. The Ravens convert just 13 first downs in this entire game. The Giants do even worse than that. If you go back and watch this Super Bowl game, it truly feels like a Super Bowl from the 1970s, only shot with a much better video camera.
There is no offensive player on either side that’s even worthy of a look, and as for which defensive player is the most valuable on the 2000 Ravens, we can argue in circles for years about that. Ray Lewis got this award, purely to try to get Disney to try to whitewash all of that murder trial stuff off him. I would give it to Michael McCrary personally, but you can pick Ray (or about six other Ravens) if you’d like. I wouldn’t mind.
My MVP Vote: DE Michael McCrary
Super Bowl XXXVI - New England Patriots def. St Louis Rams 20-17
Real MVP: QB Tom Brady
The most baffling Super Bowl MVP since Fred Biletnikoff.
I’m convinced that it was decided beforehand that Tom Brady was winning this award, should the Patriots win the game, because what happened on the field does not indicate Tom being anywhere near this award. He fails on multiple fronts. First and foremost, the Patriots are a negative EPA offence in this game, and win anyway, meaning the MVP should likely come from the defensive side, and even if the Patriots weren’t a negative EPA/Play offence, virtually all of Tom’s production went to one receiver, Troy Brown, which by all previous precedent would make Troy Brown the Super Bowl MVP, and not Tom Brady.
This is how I’m going to choose to proceed with my vote. My first choice will be a Patriot defender. If I can’t find a Patriot defender, the choice will be Troy Brown. The negative EPA QB is out of the running. I don’t care what his name is.
Immediately, I run into the problem of the Patriots’ two starting corners, Ty Law and Otis Smith, both having absolutely electric games. Perhaps this is more a credit to Bill Belichick’s defence than anything, but as I discussed in 2000, I cannot give Super Bowl MVP to a coach.
The Patriots figured a way to do what no other team could do: hold both Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce out of the game. As a surrogate for their coach, the defensive backs have to get credit for that.
Note that figuring out how to stop these two is not the same thing as figuring out how to stop the Greatest Show on Turf, as there was one more top 15 receiver (Az Hakim) and one more above average NFL receiver (Ricky Proehl) to deal with after those two, and the Patriots got torched by both of them on this day, but that’s not the fault of either Law or Smith.
In terms of trying to pick between the two, there’s nothing to choose. Neither had multiple splash plays, but both had one interception, and both did an exceptional job on one of the top receivers in all of football.
I’ve come to the conclusion that I cannot make this choice, so I’m invoking the 1978 precedent. The Super Bowl MVP goes to both Patriot corners.
My MVP Vote: CB Ty Law, CB Otis Smith
Super Bowl XXXVII - Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. Oakland Raiders 48-21
Real MVP: FS Dexter Jackson
This is another MVP that feels narrative driven.
Much like the 1985 Bears, the Buccaneers had 24 first downs and 365 yards of offence in this game. It’s tough to justify giving the MVP to a defensive player when those are the offensive numbers, but the Bucs defence gets the advantage of there not being an obvious offensive player to give MVP, in the way there was with Willie Gault on the Bears.
There are no elite receiving games. There is no great QB performance. It’s just a great team offensive performance, backed up by probably the best defensive performance in the history of the Super Bowl. This lack of any standout offensive player is what opens the door for a FS to win Super Bowl MVP, and I can’t argue with the pick of Dexter Jackson.
Perhaps Ronde Barber should get some more credit, but when it comes to Super Bowl MVP voting for defensive players, respect is only given to splash plays, and Dexter Jackson intercepted Rich Gannon in Tampa territory twice in a row, early in the game, with the score sitting at 3-3 for the first, and 6-3 for the second. Dwight Smith actually had two pick sixes in this game, but one made the score 34-3, and the other made it 48-21. Neither were particularly impactful to the final outcome.
I like what the voters did here. Give more weight to the splash plays that happened when the game was actually in the balance.
My MVP Vote: FS Dexter Jackson
Super Bowl XXXVIII - New England Patriots def. Carolina Panthers 32-29
Real MVP: QB Tom Brady
The Patriots should’ve won this game so easily, but true to form (in the 2000s), they tried their damnedest to choke it away.
They did win though, and they did it with an extremely productive passing attack. Deion Branch joins the frustratingly long line of Jerry Rice types, receivers that almost did enough to allow the ‘carry’ label to be placed on them, but he didn’t quite make it in my opinion, which leaves only one rational choice for MVP.
My MVP Vote: QB Tom Brady
Super Bowl XXXIX - New England Patriots def. Philadelphia Eagles 24-21
Real MVP: WR Deion Branch
At last we get another receiver winning MVP. Unless you count Desmond Howard in 1997 (which I don’t. He’s a pure kick returner to me), it’s been all the way since 1989 that a receiver has truly been able to cross the ‘carry’ threshold in the Super Bowl game.
Deion Branch got extremely close to winning MVP last year, but there is nothing close about this year. Tom Brady in the 2005 Super Bowl generated 7.9 total EPA, meanwhile Deion Branch had 14 total EPA individually. That means Tom Brady was not just negative throwing to everybody else. He was quite a bit negative.
If you take Deion Branch off the field, the Patriots are a negative EPA passing offence, and in what was a one possession game even with Deion Branch, they would certainly lose. I don’t think in the history of the Super Bowl there’s ever been a clearer carry job out of a single receiver than out of Deion Branch in 2005. Maybe Lynn Swann, but that would be the only performance even comparable to this.
My MVP Vote: WR Deion Branch
Super Bowl XL - Pittsburgh Steelers def. Seattle Seahawks 21-10
Real MVP: WR Hines Ward
If I’ve self-imposed the rule that I cannot give Super Bowl MVP to a coach, I’m going to impose on you that you cannot tell me to give the MVP award to the referee.
The Steelers were a negative EPA/Play offence in this game, which means the place I looked first for an MVP was the Pittsburgh defence. However, there is no Pittsburgh defender with multiple splash plays, and if you would’ve asked me before this game what the main plan against the 2005 Seahawks would be, you would tell me that Pittsburgh needed to do two things: stop Shaun Alexander, and stop Joe Jurevicious. They failed miserably in both of those pursuits, so I don’t deem it necessary to stick on this side of the ball and look more in-depth for defensive performance, in the way I did for the Patriot corners a few years ago.
That swings me back to the offence, where this is another contender for the biggest carry from a receiver of all time. It’s only been one year, but move over Deion Branch.
The Pittsburgh passing game was a negative EPA proposition in general, but imagine what it would’ve been without Hines Ward’s 9.2 individual EPA in this game. We’d be talking about how Ben Roethlisberger played one of the worst Super Bowl games of all time, in an article that includes the entirety of the 1970s.
Instead, because of Hines Ward’s carry job, Ben Roethlisberger gets to sweep this nightmare under the rug, and hope we all forget it ever happened. I haven’t forgotten, which makes this another one of my easiest votes in Super Bowl history to cast.
My MVP Vote: WR Hines Ward
Super Bowl XLI - Indianapolis Colts def. Chicago Bears 29-17
Real MVP: QB Peyton Manning
I’m not buying this one either.
Everybody knows I’m a Peyton Manning over Tom Brady guy, but in this regard, the two are similar. It was decided before the game in the minds of the voters that if Indianapolis won, Peyton was getting this award. There is no other explanation, because he did nothing on the field to deserve it.
The Indianapolis Colts were a negative EPA/Play offence in this game, but they still won, which means as far as I’m concerned, I start my search for the MVP on the defensive side of the ball, and unlike last year, this time I actually find an MVP here. I can’t believe this guy didn’t win it in real life.
It’s Bob Sanders.
With one interception, plus one forced fumble, plus throwing the hit that injured Cedric Benson, plus being such an intimidating presence in the middle of the field that he prevented Rex Grossman (whose main characteristic as a player was that he was never too intimidated to throw the ball deep, for better and for worse) from throwing many deep passes, I don’t think anybody had more impact on this game than Bob did, and I don’t think it’s even close.
In my opinion, this is one of the most galling Super Bowl MVP robberies in history, made even worse by the fact that Bob Sanders was a star player. It’s not that nobody noticed what he was doing. It’s that they saw it, but had the preconceived idea that they were giving their vote to Peyton Manning no matter what. I do not suffer from that delusion, so my vote goes to Bob.
My MVP Vote: FS Bob Sanders
Super Bowl XLII - New York Giants def. New England Patriots 17-14
Real MVP: QB Eli Manning
I always knew we were going to make it to our friend Eli eventually. Basically all of what I said about Jim Plunkett applies here. I don’t want to say Eli deserved this award. I went into the exercise looking for excuses to take it away from him, but looking at this game, it’s tough to change this call.
The Giant offence generated 0.09 EPA/Play in this game, which is not inspiring, but not bad enough that the conversation can take place exclusively on the defensive side of the ball, so I begin with the offence. The rushing offence was not very good, and Amani Toomer and David Tyree cancel each other out as receivers, so that leaves me looking at 0.11 EPA/Play Eli Manning. Note that Jeff Hostetler played better than this in 1991, and I took the award away from him to give it to a loser, so I keep looking.
Moving onto the Giant defenders, this leaves me looking at the defensive line. Much like the 1989 49ers, it’s not a question as to whether or not the Giant defensive line as a whole was more valuable than Eli Manning. Of course they were. This game is still recent enough that most people know that, but it’s a question as to whether any individual defensive lineman was more valuable than Eli Manning, and thankfully for my personal agenda, I believe one is.
Justin Tuck in the first half of this game played havoc on the best offence in the history of football. They dared not run to his side, and he sacked Tom Brady twice, one of them being a strip sack in Giant territory that had massive impact on the final outcome of what turned out to be a one possession football game.
Using the same test as I did between Larry Brown and Troy Aikman earlier, strictly Justin’s box score contributions netted the Giants 5.2 total EPA. This is more than Eli’s 4.5 in this game already, and if you believe Justin’s non-box score contributions in this Super Bowl were at least positive (which I do), his lead only grows, and even if you believe they were only moderately negative, his lead persists.
The only way an Eli Manning MVP vote makes sense is if you think Justin Tuck’s non-box score contributions in this Super Bowl game were a significant hinderance to the Giants’ chances to win. Evidently, that’s the game the voters watched, since they did vote for Eli Manning, but that’s not the game that I watched. My vote goes to defence for the second year in a row.
My MVP Vote: DE Justin Tuck
Super Bowl XLIII - Pittsburgh Steelers def. Arizona Cardinals 27-23
Real MVP: WR Santonio Holmes
This is an easy pick. The first easy one in a few years. The big moment at the end is great, but Santonio was fantastic throughout the rest of the game also. Paradoxically, the one big catch at the end seems to have buried just how great Santonio played in the rest of this Super Bowl.
Ben Roethlisberger generated 8.1 total EPA this game. Virtually all of that is eaten up by Santonio’s eight flat. That’s a receiver carry, as with the 0.1 total EPA that Ben generated when throwing to anybody else, the Steelers would’ve generated negative EPA on the day, and would’ve lost.
My MVP Vote: WR Santonio Holmes
Super Bowl XLIV - New Orleans Saints def. Indianapolis Colts 31-17
Real MVP: QB Drew Brees
Another easy pick.
What do you want me to say? Drew Brees generated 17.8 total EPA in this game, while none of his individual receivers got more than five. If a QB were making a deliberate effort to win the Super Bowl MVP, spreading the ball around like this is what he would do. I’m not accusing Drew Brees of glory hogging, but his playing style is naturally very conducive to winning Super Bowl MVP awards.
If only he could’ve made more Super Bowl games.
My MVP Vote: QB Drew Brees
Super Bowl XLV - Green Bay Packers def. Pittsburgh Steelers 31-25
Real MVP: QB Aaron Rodgers
This is the first Super Bowl in a while where there truly is no inspiring MVP choice. I’ve been very confident on every one of my votes going all the way back to Dexter Jackson, but in this game, the Packer offence generated 0.14 EPA/Play as a team. That’s too good to give the award to a defender. The ball was handed off only 12 times, so that’s a non-factor, which leaves us looking at Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson.
How do you decouple these two?
Aaron generates 9.7 total EPA in this game, and has only 7.6 of it eaten up by Jordy’s individual production. That’s a lot more than half of his production, but it’s a big enough gap to where even if Jordy hadn’t existed, Aaron still would’ve generated more EPA than his opponent, Ben Roethlisberger. To me, this puts Jordy Nelson in the Jerry Rice/Ricky Sanders/Troy Brown/Deion Branch category of receivers that almost carried enough to be given the MVP award, but not quite.
Put Jordy Nelson down for a marvelous Super Bowl game, but not quite an MVP. I don’t like giving the award to Aaron Rodgers here, as merely good QB performances are not my cup of tea when giving out awards, but I really don’t think I have any other choice in this instance.
My MVP Vote: QB Aaron Rodgers
Super Bowl XLVI - New York Giants def. New England Patriots 21-17
Real MVP: QB Eli Manning
One more self-imposed rule.
Everybody knows the real MVP of this Super Bowl is Bernard Pollard, for breaking Rob Gronkowski’s ankle in the AFC Championship game, but just like I can’t give the Super Bowl MVP to a coach, or referee, I cannot give it to a player who plays for the Baltimore Ravens.
The Patriot offence was not designed to function without Rob Gronkowski. It did not function as well as normal with a hobbled to the point he shouldn’t have even been playing Rob Gronkowski, and in my view, that is why the Patriots lost this game, but if we ignore that, and take this game for what it is, there is nothing standing between Eli Manning and the MVP the second time around.
Just like last year, Eli did not exactly blow the lid off, but he played well enough to only allow 10.3 of his 13.6 total EPA to be eaten up by this best receiver Hakeem Nicks, banishing Nicks to hang out with Jordy Nelson from last year in the group of almost carries, and scampering off with the Super Bowl MVP himself.
My MVP Vote: QB Eli Manning
Super Bowl XLVII - Baltimore Ravens def. San Francisco 49ers 34-31
Real MVP: QB Joe Flacco
How many times can I sing the same song?
This game, from an MVP voting perspective, is radically similar to the previous two seasons. We get yet another almost carrying receiver, with Anquan Boldin alone accounting for nine of Joe Flacco’s 11.7 total EPA, but that still leaves enough of a gap to where Joe could’ve been healthily positive, even if Anquan Boldin did not exist, so that leaves Joe Flacco himself, and his 0.41 EPA/Play, standing unopposed.
My MVP Vote: QB Joe Flacco
Super Bowl XLVIII - Seattle Seahawks def. Denver Broncos 43-8
Real MVP: LB Malcom Smith
Absolutely not. This doesn’t work for me, brother.
This is another narrative MVP. Just like the 1985 Bears and 2002 Buccaneers, the MVP was supposed to come from the Legion of Boom defence, but that once again entirely ignores what happened on the field in the game. The Seahawk offence generated 0.16 EPA/Play in this game, against a Denver Bronco defence that I will be revisiting again in a few minutes. To say the least, it is not a defence to be taken lightly.
Just like the 1985 Chicago Bears, these Seahawks had the Legion of Boom at their back, if they had needed them, but they didn’t. The offence ensured that this game could’ve been won even if the opponent had scored 25 points, just like the Packers did a few years ago, winning that game 31-25 while generating less EPA than these Seahawks did. I gave an offensive player MVP that day, so I think an offensive player needs MVP on this day as well.
In the absence of any receivers with an exceptional level of production (or any rushing offence at all), there’s only one choice. I personally think Russell Wilson generating 0.55 EPA/Play, against this Denver defence, is one of the most underrated Super Bowl QB performances ever. I don’t know why nobody talks about it, but perhaps if it’d been granted the MVP vote, it’d get more of the attention it deserves.
My MVP Vote: QB Russell Wilson
Super Bowl XLIX - New England Patriots def. Seattle Seahawks 28-24
Real MVP: QB Tom Brady
This is the least controversial of Tom’s MVP awards so far. Any sensible person can see his 2002 Super Bowl MVP award is a sham, with nothing to do with what happened on the field in the game. There are also smart people that would’ve given Deion Branch the vote over him in 2004, and everybody gave Deion Branch the vote over him in 2005.
If this article were being written by somebody with just a slightly different philosophy on what the word ‘carry’ means, it’s possible Tom could’ve had zero Super Bowl MVP awards all the way up until 2015, but at this point, he would definitively shut that down.
Tom is the second best QB in this game, getting outplayed on a rate basis by Russell Wilson, but the Patriots do a fantastic job of playing keep away, knowing their defence cannot stop the Seahawks. It’s Tom and the pass game that deserve a majority of the credit for this, because the Patriot rush offence was horrendous in this Super Bowl game.
For a man who made a living relying on all the good circumstance in the world to bail him out of the bad situations that he constantly got himself into, this is the most pure Patriot Super Bowl Tom has. He got very little help here, from either his defence or his fellow offensive players, and yet, it still feels like a gift from God that his team won this game.
That feels like a statement on Tom’s career, but I’m not sure exactly what I’m trying to say. Nevertheless, it’s an easy pick for Super Bowl MVP.
My MVP Vote: QB Tom Brady
Super Bowl L - Denver Broncos def. Carolina Panthers 24-10
Real MVP: LB Von Miller
When the Super Bowl winners generate -0.33 EPA/Play as a team on offence, you know you’re in for a defensive MVP.
The Broncos got outplayed like nobody’s business on the offensive side of the ball. This is not to say the Panthers were good, but it is to say that they had a 55.9% series conversion rate, compared to the Broncos’ 43.5%. That should’ve been enough to win them this game easily, but it wasn’t, and the reason is defensive splash plays.
Von Miller in this game had probably the greatest Super Bowl that any defensive player has ever had, at least in the era of more things being tracked that begins in 1999. A batted ball, two and a half sacks, plus two forced fumbles, is a lot more than the two necessary defensive splash plays to be up for consideration. He’s the obvious pick for Super Bowl MVP, because he’s on the winning team, but I would like to mention somebody else before I get off this subject.
I want to talk about Carolina Panthers DE Kony Ealy, who also had one of the best Super Bowls for a defensive player ever, with one INT, one batted ball, three full sacks, and a forced fumble, plus two TFLs in the run game. This guy singlehandedly ruined this game for the Broncos, and if Von Miller’s greatness had been just a little bit less great, this would’ve been my Super Bowl MVP pick, regardless of the score. I would absolutely be prepared to give him the MVP as a loser in almost every other Super Bowl game that’s ever been played. He is the most valuable player in this game, if we take those words literally, but when a game the quality of Von Miller’s happens on the winning team, it precludes you from winning MVP as a member of the losers.
My MVP Vote: LB Von Miller
Super Bowl LI - New England Patriots def. Atlanta Falcons 34-28
Real MVP: QB Tom Brady
Remember just a couple years ago, when I talked about how Tom Brady spent a whole career putting himself into bad situations unnecessarily?
Yeah. Here we are.
It’s a lot like 1989 all over again. The MVP of this game is the Patriot defensive unit, for holding one of the best offences in NFL history to just 21 points while Tom went through his self destruct phase. The Falcons had to punt six times, plus turning the ball over once. The Falcons had punted five times in the entire 2016 playoffs before this.
Nevertheless, you cannot be more valuable than a player who touches the football 73 times in a game. Much like Franco Harris in 1975, the game plan dictated that only Tom Brady was going to be an MVP on the Patriots. If you combine Dont’a Hightower and Trey Flowers into one person, they can basically match Tom’s value, and that’s before adding in anybody else on the Patriot defence, but MVP awards are for one person.
Unless it’s 1978.
Or 2002.
I’ll move on before I change my mind.
My MVP Vote: QB Tom Brady
Super Bowl LII - Philadelphia Eagles def. New England Patriots 41-33
Real MVP: QB Nick Foles
No contest. This game from Nick Foles is one of the best Super Bowls from a player in the new millennium. Funnily enough, it still only makes him the second best QB in this game, as Nick generated 19.8 total EPA compared to Tom Brady’s 22.5, but being on the winning team has its privileges.
My MVP Vote: QB Nick Foles
Super Bowl LIII - New England Patriots def. Los Angeles Rams 13-3
Real MVP: WR Julian Edelman
I see what they were going for here.
The Patriot passing game was a negative proposition on the whole in this Super Bowl, but Julian Edelman individually racked up 8.9 EPA when the ball was being thrown to him. That’s very reminiscent of Hines Ward’s MVP trophy back in 2006, but remember what I said when Hines Ward won. When a negative EPA offence wins the game, you have to look at defenders first. Only if none of them are truly applicable can you move back to the offence.
There are two Patriot defenders that fit the ‘multiple defensive splash play’ benchmark. There is Stephon Gilmore, with one INT and one forced fumble, and Dont’a Hightower again, with two sacks and two TFLs. Can either of these players’ box score production get close enough to Julian’s that it makes an argument on their behalf reasonable?
Put simply, no they cannot. Dont’a isn’t around the ball enough to rack up any more than 4.4 EPA worth of box score production. Stephon Gilmore’s INT is the most important individual play of this game, but he also spent most of the night being torched by Brandin Cooks, which hurts his value a lot.
I had to check, but in the absence of any worthwhile defenders, this is the clearest carry out of a WR that we’ve seen in a while.
My MVP Vote: WR Julian Edelman
Super Bowl LIV - Kansas City Chiefs def. San Francisco 49ers 31-20
Real MVP: QB Patrick Mahomes
This is one of the instances I was talking about before. Patrick Mahomes may have won the MVP award for this game, but he did not generate the most total value for the Chiefs. Take a guess as to who did.
It’s likely not who you’re thinking of.
It’s likely not that guy either.
It’s RB Damien Williams, and if you’re anybody other than
who claims to have gotten that one correct strictly from memory, I simply won’t believe you.You may be asking, why isn’t Damien Williams the MVP then? It’s a simple answer. 4.2 of his 9.1 total EPA for this game (almost half of it) was generated in scoring the touchdown with 1:12 left in the fourth quarter. The one that moved the Chiefs’ estimated Win Probability (according to NFLFastR) from 98 to 99 percent.
Once again, taking the phrase ‘most valuable’ strictly literally would give you a vote for Damien Williams in this game, but a lot of the value he generated simply didn’t matter to the final result. This is why I can vote for Patrick Mahomes with a clear conscience.
My MVP Vote: QB Patrick Mahomes
Super Bowl LV - Tampa Bay Buccaneers def. Kansas City Chiefs 31-9
Real MVP: QB Tom Brady
It’s the same story as the last few Tom Brady games. As a unit, Tampa’s defence was approximately as valuable as their offence, but individually, no defender comes close to matching Tom’s value.
My MVP Vote: QB Tom Brady
Super Bowl LVI - Los Angeles Rams def. Cincinnati Bengals 23-20
Real MVP: WR Cooper Kupp
It’s the typical story with a receiver MVP. Matthew Stafford generated 8.8 total EPA in this game, but 10.3 throwing to Cooper, meaning he was direly negative while throwing to anybody else. However, the Rams were a negative EPA offence in this game, so I have to do my due diligence and at least check for defenders.
Analysing the splash play distribution, there are two players I want to look at. Both Aaron Donald and Von Miller have two sacks and two TFLs in this game. In the absence of any forced fumbles, neither can match Cooper’s value. If you add them together, they surpass Cooper’s value, but this is not how MVP awards are won. Such is the life of a defensive player.
This was a very clear carry, to cap off a season of very clear carrying from Cooper. It’s possibly the best receiver season in NFL history, and I’m happy that I’ve proven to myself that the Super Bowl MVP on the end of it is not simply a narrative device.
My MVP Vote: WR Cooper Kupp
Super Bowl LVII - Kansas City Chiefs def. Philadelphia Eagles 38-35
Real MVP: QB Patrick Mahomes
There’s nothing to say.
0.57 EPA/Play for Patrick is one of the best individual Super Bowls ever. 0.39 EPA/Play as a team is one of the best team offensive performances in the Super Bowl ever. There’s nobody else even up for consideration.
My MVP Vote: QB Patrick Mahomes
Super Bowl LVIII - Kansas City Chiefs def. San Francisco 49ers 25-22
Real MVP: QB Patrick Mahomes
As with all other times a negative EPA offence wins the Super Bowl, the search for the MVP begins with the Chiefs’ defensive players, and in my opinion, it never gets past that stage in Super Bowl 58.
Simply analysing the box score production, the value of the production of LB Leo Chenal adds up to a gargantuan (for a defender) 9.9 total EPA for the Chiefs. This is more than Patrick Mahomes’ 9.1, to the point where even if you think Leo adds -0.04 EPA/Play on his 21 non-box score defensive plays, which seems like a stretch for a LB in a game where the SF rush game was not exactly tearing it up, and Leo only got targeted three times in a pass defender, it would still only draw Patrick even with him.
Most of that defensive value comes from stripping the ball out of Christian McCaffrey’s hands on the KC 27 yard line, preventing an almost certain score. This is the second most important play of this entire game, and the very most important that any KC Chief had anything to do with, because the very most important is the odd fumble on the punt that fell on the helmet. We all still remember this.
Leo was great there, but he also added value via being the person to block the extra point in the fourth quarter, the only thing that allowed the Chiefs to eventually tie the game at 19 with a FG as time expired to send it to overtime, and he also added value via punishing the 49ers with solid tackles every time they tried to put him in open space, leading to negative EPA every time they tried it, which is why he was targeted only three times as a pass defender.
I know I’ve listed him as an LB here, because his primary value came from playing LB in this game, but Leo Chenal in this game played more snaps on special teams than on defence. He’s a special teams guy. There is a precedent in the real world set by Desmond Howard, but I’ve never given a special teams player the MVP before. This gives me pause, but it’s not often the case that a special teams player is solely responsible for the most important play of the entire game (excluding a ball falling on a helmet).
For one final time, we’re not discussing who the better players were. We’re discussing who had the most value in this one game, and I think in the 2024 Super Bowl, the contributions of Leo Chenal helped his team more than the contributions of Patrick Mahomes did. This might be a hot take, but even if you don’t like Leo Chenal, my alternative is not Patrick Mahomes. My alternative is to give the Super Bowl MVP to George Karlaftis (a DE whose box score contributions in this game also outweigh Patrick Mahomes’), and I don’t know if that’d make you much happier, if you’re already not a fan of the Chenal pick, so I’m going to stick with my original.
My MVP Vote: LB/ST Leo Chenal
Super Bowl LIX - Philadelphia Eagles def. Kansas City Chiefs 40-22
Real MVP: QB Jalen Hurts
I wish I’d had the idea for this article sooner, so I could’ve ended it with the ultimate hot take of selecting Leo Chenal over Patrick Mahomes, but sometimes life doesn’t work like that. Instead, we’re left with an extremely easy pick as the final entry on the list, as Jalen generated 19.8 total EPA, meanwhile none of his receivers got any more than 6.3. This reminds me a lot of Drew Brees, in that if the goal of a QB was to win Super Bowl MVP, this is how that QB would play.
My MVP Vote: QB Jalen Hurts
There you have it. My opinion on where exactly every Super Bowl MVP should have ended up. In all, over the 59 Super Bowl games, there were only 15 divergences between the real life MVP award winner, and the player I think most deserved the award. As a general pattern, before Jerry Rice in 1989 I don’t think receivers were recognized enough, and after the 2004 passing rule changes I don’t think defensive players were recognized enough.
As for the most glaring mistakes, in my opinion there are six. One gets off the hook. The other five don’t. The first gets off the hook because it’s Bart Starr winning in 1967 over Max McGee, who if this game had been played at any point after Lynn Swann burst the dam would’ve been seen as an easy MVP choice. The real voters get off the hook from me for that one, because the concept of a receiver carrying the offence guaranteeing them the MVP award didn’t exist yet, but do recognize that a third string TE absolutely deserved the MVP for the first Super Bowl.
The next glaring mistakes are all difficult to conceptualise, and seem to me to have been results of narratives coming into the game that were going to hold no matter what, even if the narrative did not hold true to what happened on the field. Fred Biletnikoff in 1977, Tom Brady in 2002, Peyton Manning in 2007 and Eli Manning in 2008 all fit this exact same mold, winning MVP over clearly more deserving candidates on their own teams. Brady and Biletnikoff are especially bad, as I would’ve picked most players on their teams over them as MVPs in these games. At least the Manning brothers only clearly lose out to one person each, but that doesn’t make Bob Sanders or Justin Tuck sleep any better at night.
The final vote that I see as a huge mistake is Thurman Thomas not winning the MVP in 1991. I know there’s an aversion to giving MVP to losing players, but it’d been done before, and the distance between him and the next best player on his team in specific and on the field in general is one of the biggest there’s ever been in a Super Bowl game. Even if it had to be given to a Giant, I still think Jeff Hostetler deserves the award over a 45% success rate, 0 EPA/Play RB.
That’s really it. Those are the six glaring issues I came here to fix. There are other small disagreements that get me to my total of 14, but mostly, this experience has been a lesson to me that the Super Bowl MVP generally goes to the right player. In six out of 59 Super Bowls there has been a galling gaffe, but in the other 53 the MVP winner has at least had an argument, and in 45 of those 53 instances the real voters chose the right winner in those arguments.
In the world of NFL awards, where MVPs and OPOYs and DPOYs and Hall of Fame inductions seem to be awarded for everything except for on-field play, it’s satisfying to me to know that at least the Super Bowl MVP award generally has the right name attached to it.
It’s an interesting commentary when combined with the commentary I provided at the beginning of this piece, that nobody cares about the Super Bowl MVP award. Why is it that the award that the fewest people care about has to have the best track record of picking the right guy out of them all? Perhaps those two things are not coincidence.
Nevertheless, once we correct the six particularly glaring issues, we can at least go to bed at night knowing that the right guy generally wins the Super Bowl MVP award.
Thanks so much for reading.
Somewhere Justin Tuck is smiling. When Eli got his second MVP award, Tuck was reported to (semi-jokingly) say, “man, he keeps stealing my MVP trophies.”
However, I watched that game at Lucas Stadium. Steve Weatherford was my MVP for winning the field position battle. Three of his punts were downed inside the 10 yard line and the fourth should have been if played correctly by the Giants special teams.
Well written sir