2022 Vikings: The Luckiest Team in NFL History

When the 2022 Minnesota Vikings realize that luck is finally on their side, they run with it in a way no team ever has before.

The Minnesota Vikings won 13 games in 2022.

I'd forgive you for forgetting, since precisely nobody is talking about it. Nobody is picking them to win a weakened NFC North next year, and nobody thinks of the Vikings as being among the NFL's elite. All of this despite winning more games than the Bengals, and the same number as San Francisco and Buffalo. Why is nobody giving the Vikings respect?

Normally, to win as many as 13 games in the NFL, you have to be great at something.

There are no real parameters as to what that one thing has to be. You can be great at offence. You can be great at defence. You can be great at passing. You can be great at running, but there has to be something.

In the 2022 season, there were seven teams who won as many as 12 games in the NFL: San Francisco, Kansas City, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Dallas, and our Vikings. All of them finished in the top five in an offensive or defensive category, with one notable exception.

The 49ers combined the league's best total defence with a top five offence to be the NFL's top team in terms of expected wins. Kansas City had by far the league's best offence (passing and total) to overcome their rather average defence and be the best team in the AFC. Buffalo's second ranked offence (passing and total) was enough to accomplish a similar thing, but with somewhat better defence.

Philadelphia combined the league's best pass defence with its best rushing offence in order to finish at the top of the NFC standings. Cincinnati finished a distant third in the AFC, but they still managed to combine a top five offence with a top ten defence to cause the big boys a bit of trouble. Dallas is similar, except backwards, finishing with the league's second ranked defence to go with a fringe top ten offence.

All of these teams are great at something. Not all are great at everything (Kansas City's 15th ranked defence, Philadelphia's issues stopping the run, Buffalo's rather average rush offence, etc.), but all were able to finish in the top five in the NFL in an offensive or defensive category.

That is, all except the Minnesota Vikings, who somehow combined the NFL's 16th ranked defence with its 17th ranked offence to obtain a 13 win team. Somehow, in a league where you have to have top five ability at something (again. Not everything, but something) in order to have this level of success, the Vikings managed to do it without being near the top of the NFL in any facet of the game.

These Vikings weren't good at anything. They were average everywhere. The closest they come to the top of the league in any category is their tenth ranked pass offence.

It is not a good sign to be in the top ten in just one of the four core facets of the game (pass and rush offence, pass and rush defence). For perspective, the New York Jets were also in the top ten in one facet of the game (pass defence), and they didn't get near the playoffs. The same goes for Denver, also pass defence.

So what gives then? The way I'm talking, this should've been an average team that won eight or nine games. They got to 13. There had to be something that they had going for them.

You've read the title. You know my opinion. I think what these Vikings had on their side was a level of luck that'd never been seen before in the context of an NFL season, and I can prove it.

If their meagre ranks of 17th on offence and 16th on defence aren't enough to convince you of how average this team was, then how about the negative point differential? All in all, the 2022 Minnesota Vikings finished with a point differential of negative three. For all intents and purposes, I'll treat it as zero.

Teams with a point differential of zero, by definition, are going to have about as many wins as losses, since their average game is either a close loss or close win, depending on which side of zero they fall on. Somehow, the 2022 Vikings managed to dance their way around this rule of thumb. How did they do it?

Play like crazy in one possession games.

These Vikings played in and won an unbelievable 11 one possession games in 2022, while getting pummeled in each and every one of their losses, somehow leaving them with a negative point differential despite winning all of those tight games.

At the start of the season, it didn't seem like it was going to be this way, as they began with what would turn out to be their most encouraging performance of the year. A 23-7 home win over reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers and his Green Bay Packers is nothing to scoff at. The defence shut Aaron down so hard that the Packers ended up trying their luck with Jordan Love at the end of the game.

This performance made the Vikings look so good that for week two they went into Philadelphia as just 2.5 point underdogs. Nobody knew what the 2022 Eagles would be (2022 NFC Champions) as of yet, but everybody knew they were the NFC East favourites, and the Vikings aren't exactly the most beloved team in NFL betting circles, so going on the road as only scant underdogs can be construed as a mild compliment.

Unfortunately, while the bookies didn't know who the Eagles were going to be in 2022, the Eagles certainly did. They beat the doors off of our Vikings, achieving a 93% chance of victory (according to NFLFastR's Win Probability model, as always) by the half, and never looking back from there.

This was a challenge the Vikings couldn't meet, but you know what? There's no shame in not being able to compete with an Eagles team that will go on to win 14 games in 2022. Kirk Cousins looked really bad this game, generating -0.24 EPA/Play, but better QBs than him will go on to look even worse against this Philadelphia defence (Trevor Lawrence's horror show in Philadelphia in week four blows this out of the water).

All of this to say that for the first two weeks, nothing was out of the ordinary for the Minnesota Vikings. The sky was not falling, nor were any fans jumping for joy at the state of their squad. For a team that'd won eight games in 2021 and seven in 2020, this was starting to feel pretty normal for them.

Little did they know that they were about to play witness to the most abnormal season the NFL has ever seen, and it all starts in week three at home against the Lions.

The Vikings come into this home matchup as 6.5 point favourites to best the hapless Lions, but as we all now know, these Lions were anything but hapless. They had just come off of putting up 36 points on what will turn out to be a very good Washington Commander defence in week two, and had given Philadelphia a reasonable run for their money in week one.

As of week three however, nobody knows what these performances mean. It will become more clear throughout the season that these Lions are the real deal, but for right now, the Vikings are expected to beat them fairly handily.

These expectations are coming apart as in the second quarter Detroit has just completed a touchdown pass to take a 14-0 lead, dropping the Vikings' Win Probability (WP) to just 34%. This is beginning to look a lot like Philadelphia. If the Vikings want to keep this game alive, they need to score on their next touch, and they do, driving the length of the field with a hearty helping of their solid rushing attack to cut the deficit to seven.

Before we know it, the game is back tied, as this time the Vikings ride the arm of Kirk Cousins into the end zone after forcing an incompletion on fourth and one in Detroit territory. As we go into half, the Vikings have recouped their 66 percent WP that they started the game with.

Coming out of half though, it's all Detroit again. Minnesota can't score on either of their first two second half drives (one three and out. One missed field goal), while the Lions take advantage of the opening to go up 24-14 and reduce the Vikings' WP to 24 percent. Once again, the Vikings have put themselves into a position of having to score or risk the game being whisked way from them.

All is good on the next drive though, as Detroit still can't get a handle on Dalvin Cook. The Vikings have gone 16 yards in just two plays when the unthinkable happens.

Dalvin fumbles the ball on the Detroit 46, and the Lions pick it up. This alone would be utterly disastrous, as if Detroit scores a TD here and goes into the fourth up by 17, this game is essentially over, but it gets worse.

Cook is injured on the play. He won't be back. Therefore, the Vikings would be put into the position of having to make a 17 point comeback without their best offensive weapon.

That is not an option, the defence has to make a stop.

They do it. They hold Detroit to a three and out to bring this game back from the brink of destruction and get their offence the ball back, but this chance is wasted when the drive is killed by a second down sack of Kirk Cousins. Now this defence (which we know is not great to begin with) is put into the position of having to stop this offence they’ve been struggling with all day for the second time in a row, this time on no rest. This is where the game ends right?

No sir. The Lions do manage one first down on a defensive holding call, but run just five offensive plays and are forced to punt at 10:47 of the fourth. Minnesota makes the most of their second chance at life by scoring easily and quickly (all plays except two resulting in first downs) and leaving 7:55 on the clock to get the Lions off the field and either tie or win the game on the crack back, but as the Lions' drive drags on (eventually using four minutes of game time) things are getting worse and worse for the Vikings.

There's now just 3:35 left. Luckily, they're only down by three, but still. Their WP is down to just 25 percent because the Lions are on their 30 yard line. One successful field goal attempt and the score won't be within three anymore, and I know they've just done it, but scoring a TD in three minutes and thirty seconds (even against Detroit) is hard. It's a tough ask to expect your offence to do that twice in a row.

What throws this all off base is that on this fourth and one play, the Lions are not trying a field goal. Now the Vikings are faced with an even tougher ask: stop the Lions on fourth and one again. This play has about a 71 percent chance of going badly for the Vikings, but thankfully for them, this is one of the 29 percent.

The defence has risen to the occasion once again, and now it's the offence's turn. Their task is now much simpler. All they need to do is score three points in three and a half minutes to send this game to OT, but they can't even do that. They can manage just one first down, and after two straight incompletions on third and fourth down, the ball goes back to Detroit at the Minnesota 47 to kill the remaining 2:36 of game clock.

The Vikings do have two timeouts (the one upside of your potential game winning drive being all incompletions) and are still down by just three. If they can stop the Lions short of field goal territory, it is possible that they can get themselves one more chance to tie or win this game. As such, their WP hasn't tanked as much as you would think. It's only 20 percent.

Agonizingly, these hopes too are dashed with a holding penalty on a Jared Goff incompletion that could've been Minnesota's lifeline. Thanks to the two minute warning, there will still be some time on the clock if there are no more first downs, but now that the Lions are in fringe field goal range, it's more than a matter of not allowing first downs. The Vikings can't allow yards either.

What did you expect?

Those hopes are dashed by allowing the Lions to be sitting at fourth and four on the Viking 36 with 1:14 on the clock. From here, the Lions have two options. They can either try their luck on fourth down (which they'd been doing all game. Recall they passed up a 48 yard attempt for a fourth and one try earlier), or be conservative and try a 54 yard field goal. Success in either would basically end the game for the Vikings, but in my opinion, they make the wrong choice.

The Lions, who have already gone for it on fourth down five times in this game, for some reason elect to try a 54 yard field goal, which is missed. It's their second missed field goal of the game, and it brings the Vikings from the brink of death (seven percent WP) right back into the game, as they now have 70 seconds to score just three points.

They use just 25 of them to score seven points. Cousins makes good at his second time of asking, and the Vikings squeak out of this game with a four point win, in one of the luckiest escapes I'd seen in a while.

Watching this game back makes the win seem even more unlikely. The Vikings were beneficiaries of two fortuitous fourth down stops, two stops on drives beginning within their territory, two missed Detroit field goals, and a bad fourth down decision by Dan Campbell at the end of the game, all to win by just four points.

It's very uncommon in the NFL to win despite generating fewer total EPA than your opponent. It's the concrete way to tell that you've won despite not being the better team, and the Vikings have just done that. In addition, they lost the time of possession (TOP) battle 77 plays to 70. They lost the (meaningful) turnover battle. At one point their WP fell to seven percent. In spite of all of this, the Vikings get to call themselves winners. That is a whale of a rush, but they best not count on winning games like that in the future.

Did I lay the foreshadowing on a bit too thick?

Week four in New Orleans sees the Vikings win despite generating 5.84 total EPA, compared to the Saints' nine flat, and sees Minnesota fall to a WP as low as 34 percent in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, Wil Lutz can't make a 61 yard field goal as time expires, and the Vikings get out of New Orleans with a win, despite being fundamentally outplayed, for the second week in a row.

I don't need to tell you how unlikely it is to win despite being outplayed twice in a row, but think about it this way. How unlikely is it that you win when your QB is outdone by Andy Dalton? It's not 2015 anymore. No QB should be getting outdone by Andy Dalton, but Kirk was, and the Viking defence couldn't do anything about it.

If not for some fortuitous turnovers, a successful fake punt, and everything else in this game going Minnesota's way, they would have stood very little chance at winning this one, but these types of things are forgotten about when they happen to really good teams. From here, the Vikings just have to pad their resume with some easy wins.

Week five at home against the Chicago Bears (who will go on to be the worst team in the NFL) seems like a great chance to do that. Coming into the game as ten point road favourites, surely they won't need a miracle like they got in Detroit. Surely they won't have to overcome a 34 percent WP in the fourth to get this win.

Right?

I have a confession to make. That whole last paragraph was written solely for the purpose of misleading you.

The Vikings are making short work of the Bears. At times during the first half their WP gets up to 99 percent. By half it's down to 93, but they've got this one in the bag. They've got an 11 point lead, and although this doesn't seem that wide, we must remember that the other team has Justin Fields at QB, who is certainly the worst thrower (among full time starters) of the 2022 season. Comebacks are not his forte.

Unbelievably, the Vikings allow the Bears to come out of the half swinging. Despite having the Bears behind the sticks multiple times, they allow 18 yard and 23 yard completions for Chicago to get themselves back into the driver's seat, and score a TD to cut the lead to five.

It is unbelievable that the Vikings are getting torn up by Justin Fields this badly through the air. Through the air is the key part in that sentence. This was the game that got everybody thinking that Justin was turning his career around. As we now know, that sentiment was way off. He is certainly still the worst pure thrower in the NFL, but not today.

Weirdly, Chicago tries an onside kick on the ensuing kickoff. The Vikings recover and therefore can manage a field goal try off of just one first down, but it's blocked, so all is right in the world again.

The Bears' next touch is a repeat of their last. Despite being stuck on third and seven and third and twelve at separate points on this drive, key completions let them back in and eventually lead to a field goal. The Vikings' WP is down to 80 (it's only so high because the Bears are so bad), and this is getting uncomfortable. The score is now just 21-19, and the Vikings are in desperate need of a response.

Keep in mind that the Bears are (by far) the worst defence in the NFL, so a response shouldn't be too hard, but the Vikings can't get one. What they get instead is a Cousins interception on the Bears' 30 yard line (returned to the 48) to give the white hot Bears' offence the chance to take the lead.

This is a total disaster.

The Vikings have taken the relatively easy win that they desperately needed and turned it into another fourth quarter grindfest, their third in a row. For the second week in a row, they're in position to fall behind in a game that they'd been leading by two scores not that long ago.

I'll take a beat here. Does this seem like a great team to you? One that repeatedly blows second half leads and can't pull out easy wins even over teams such as the lowly Bears? I've seen people arguing that their magic in one possession games shows how clutch they are, but is this your definition of clutch? Giving up a nine point lead to Andy Dalton and the Saints? Giving up an 11 point lead to Justin Fields and the Bears?

I have a lot of trouble seeing how this is going to go well once we start facing stiffer opposition. The Vikings are not yet behind, still with a 21-19 lead, but the Bears have the ball, and they have it on their own 48. Within two plays they're in the end zone. An electric 53 yard run from Justin Fields has put the Bears out front. Now the sky is falling.

Hold up. Hold everything up. There's a penalty. It's a block in the back penalty that saves the Vikings' bacon. This drive still ends in a Bears field goal to take a 22-21 lead, but a touchdown could've meant a six point lead. This penalty was a tad light too. Very much a penalty, but one that some referees would've missed.

Everything seems to be going the Vikings' way, aside from the on-field performance.

From here, Kirk is again going to have to put this game away at the second time of asking, just like in Detroit. He does it, but does not make it look easy. This drive sees five third downs, and takes seven long minutes, but eventually Minnesota does find the end zone to take a 29-22 lead at the 2:29 mark of the fourth. This is great and all, but they still need to stop Justin Fields one more time to close this one down.

Normally, this would not be very difficult, but the Vikings have been making it look like the most difficult thing in the world for the entirety of the second half. It looks as if the game is over when Fields is strip sacked on his own 25, but the Bears recover.

Somehow, on the very next play, on second and 21, with the clock running (we're now below two minutes) and a quick setup for a no huddle play that the Bears have to get off quickly, with a QB that has very limited ability to beat you through the air, the Vikings forget about RB David Montgomery. Fields checks it down and Montgomery runs all the way to the first down marker. First down on the 46. This is getting dangerous.

Thankfully, all is over on the next play. Fields throws a nice completion inside the Viking 40, but Cam Dantzler comes up with a nice strip on the ball to end this torture and allow the Vikings to slip out with a 29-22 win.

Need I name the ways in which the Vikings were extremely fortunate to get this win, or are you getting tired of that gimmick by now? This time, I don't feel the need. Minnesota allowed Justin Fields to post a 71.4% true completion percentage. That should tell you all you need to know about how disappointing this performance was.

The Bears are awful. No ifs ands or buts. Undisputedly, the Vikings were the better team this time out, and they still nearly found a way to throw this win away.

This has already gone from nerve racking to unacceptable. They can't keep doing this. There are good teams coming up on the schedule and this disappearing act won't continue working forever. The Vikings' week six matchup is in Miami. Thankfully, there's no Tua, but there's still Teddy Bridgewater. He'll be a tougher matchup than Justin Fields.

The defence is ready for this challenge. Throughout the game, Minnesota has trouble scoring on a Miami defence that will rank just 24th in 2022. That's not encouraging, but the defence is there to pick up the slack. Teddy can hardly accomplish anything, being held to just 0.08 EPA/Play (which is okay, but not awesome). Kirk is in the negative, but the rush offence is there to back him up.

This is technically a fourth one possession game in a row, but only by courtesy, as a Miami garbage time touchdown narrowed the score to 24-16. For a team that came into Miami as narrow three point road favourites, I consider this to be the impressive win the Vikings have been looking for. Sure, Tua was missing, but Teddy Bridgewater is no slouch (certainly better than Justin Fields) and Minnesota made a good QB look pretty average on this day.

After a bye, they would do this again in week eight to Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. It's perhaps a tell that they come into this game against the luckless Cardinals as scant four point home favourites that the bookies are seeing what I'm seeing. This is not a Vikings team that needs to be respected. At least not yet.

Blowing every lead you get (except for a good job in Miami) is not a great way to gain favour in Vegas.

This game is essentially decided by a stretch in the third quarter lasting one minute and forty seconds. Before this stretch, the Cardinals had just pulled ahead 17-14 to drop the Vikings' WP to 48 percent. In this stretch, the Vikings score a touchdown, Kyler throws an interception on his first touch, and the Vikings score another seven. All of a sudden, it's 28-17, and try as they might (eventually narrowing the score to 28-26) the Cardinals just can't make up this gap.

The Cardinals did get three chances down 34-26 to tie this game in the fourth, but none came particularly close. Yet again, aside from a few minutes in the third quarter, the Minnesota offence has looked uninspiring (generating negative EPA/Play as a whole on the day), but for the second week in a row, the defence picks up the slack, holding the Cardinals to negative EPA/Play themselves.

This goes to show how many points can be scored in a game with lots of plays, despite both offences playing unexceptionally. This game featured 148 plays total, and so despite giving up 26 points, the Viking defence played quite well today. In all truthfulness, so did the Cardinal defence. They just had to contend with their QB throwing two interceptions, while Kirk didn't throw any.

Perhaps as a team sporting a 6-1 record, you'd like to beat the Arizona Cardinals by more than eight points. I can understand that point of view, but this game was never truly in doubt. Once again, this is technically a one possession game to keep the streak (now five in a row) going, but I'm okay with eight point wins.

The Vikings' next game is another where the importance was not noted until later on. It's against Washington, and for the third week in a row the Vikings generate negative EPA/Play on offence. Against what we know to be a stout Washington defence, this is more acceptable than the prior two weeks, especially when the defence holds Taylor Heinicke to -0.24 EPA/Play.

Despite this, the Vikings spend the majority of the second half behind. Initially 10-7, and later 17-7, as Heinicke is hot while the Vikings are being held to just one first down in the third quarter. At one point near the beginning of the fourth quarter, immediately after falling ten points down, Minnesota's WP falls as low as 16 percent.

At this point, 13:46 of the fourth quarter, it initially seems like disaster as Kirk throws a pick six to go behind 24-7 (which surely would've ended the game), but a pass interference penalty instead turns this effect around and gives the Vikings new life, eventually scoring a field goal to move the score to 17-10.

Washington's next touch patches up the Vikings' sinking ship for them, as it ends with an interception by Harrison Smith that sets the Vikings up with the ball on the Commies' 12 yard line. Two plays later, and the game is tied at 17. Another Washington three and out is the last time they touch the ball, as the Vikings' last touch manages to kill the whole 6:12 remaining on the clock to score the game winning field goal and get out of Washington with a 20-17 win.

As I've been saying this whole time, there are one possession games that are acceptable, and ones that aren't. With the benefit of hindsight, I'm going to put this one into the acceptable category, for the third week in a row.

This was Minnesota's sixth one possession game in a row, which is a trend that really needs to stop if they want anybody to take them seriously, but there are some teams that are too good to reasonably expect to beat by more than one possession, and I think the Washington Commanders (at this point in the year) were one of those teams.

As we now know, this game would be the Commanders' only loss in a stretch of eight games featuring matchups against three playoff teams, plus the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons, neither of which can be considered a slouch. This was a real streak Washington was on here. Next week they're about to walk into Philadelphia and hand them their first loss of the year. If not for a putrid 1-4 start under Carson Wentz before switching to Heinicke they would've ridden this streak all the way into the playoffs. I honestly think this streak would be talked about a lot more over this offseason if not for this one loss at the hands of our Minnesota Vikings.

Though not considered so at the time, this is likely the best win of the season for the Vikings. I know there are a few other candidates (including one next week that we'll get to in a minute), but this is my pick. I know it's only a three point win, and I know it took yet another fourth quarter grindfest to get there, but there were no miracles, as against Detroit. No giving up more EPA yet still winning, like against New Orleans. No allowing a bad QB to romp all over them, as against Chicago.

Not everything went right today, but they still proved themselves better than a very good Washington team. They deserve some credit for that.

What I don't know they deserve credit for is what happens in week ten. We're in Buffalo, and we've finally reached the 2022 Minnesota Vikings' magnum opus. I know what happens against Indianapolis (and we'll get there), but these Vikings will always be remembered for this game right here.

After opening up with a 7-0 lead over the powerhouse Buffalo Bills, the offence (in what's now a worrying trend) goes totally stagnant again. They're able to score just one field goal for the rest of the first half as Buffalo scores each and every time of asking, barring one turnover on the Minnesota 27, or they would've scored then too. As a result, the Vikings go into the half down 24-10, and with a putrid WP of five percent. This is helped none by a Kirk Cousins interception on the first Vikings' touch of the new half.

For once, the defence is able to respond, holding the Bills to a three and out and keeping the Vikings off of the mythical zero percent chance to win, but the offence just can't muster anything against a Buffalo defence that at this point in the season (before a lot of the injuries) was still quite suffocating. They can manage just one first down before being forced to punt the ball back to the Bills, again knowing that a touchdown will end the game.

Luckily for that offence, the Bills are held to a field goal to make the score 27-10. What is not fortunate is that Minnesota has allowed Buffalo to waste four and a half minutes on this, and we're nearly into the fourth quarter already. Here is where our first lucky break comes in.

The offence scores in just one play: an 81 yard touchdown run by Dalvin Cook to alleviate the time crunch a little bit, but the Vikings are still in dire straits. Down ten without the ball at the start of the fourth quarter looking onto the field at Josh Allen going against your league average defence is not a situation I would want to be in, but it's the one Kirk Cousins finds himself in as he watches.

The Bills convert a third and 15, and then a third and 16, and then a third and three. All throughout the time for the Vikings to make a comeback is bleeding away. Due to this, Minnesota's WP is all the way back down to three percent again, when by a miracle of nature it's a third and two that stops Josh Allen on the Minnesota seven yard line.

What happens next is a crucial, yet completely forgotten part of the Minnesota comeback. The Bills elect to go for this fourth down, and they come up empty.

I wish I could sugar coat this, because I love aggressive play calling. I think it makes the game more exciting. I love watching it, and I think more coaches should do it. In terms of entertainment value, I love the Bills going for it here, make or miss. In terms the Bills winning this game, I think fourth and two from the seven with a ten point lead at 10:42 of the fourth has to be a field goal try. I think it's yet another break for the Vikings that the Bills went for it here. There is so much value in forcing the other team to score two touchdowns that even rbdsm's fourth down decision calculator (the worshipper of aggressive play calling that it is) agrees with me on this.

Nevertheless, the Bills do throw this pass on fourth down, and it is intercepted and returned out to the 34, which also helps Minnesota a bit with the time problem. They need those seconds too, as they labour down the field, having to convert two fourth downs, but they do score another touchdown to make the score 27-23.

Wait a minute. That's a four point deficit.

Indeed. Sean McDermott's aggressive fourth down play call is let off the hook by Greg Joseph missing this extra point kick. Now the Vikings have to score another touchdown anyway.

For all I can say about these Vikings, they don't make a habit of wasting their breaks, but they've done it here. Now they have to stop the Bills, and go down the field for another touchdown, all in 4:28. Certainly not impossible, but exceedingly difficult, evidenced by the fact that Minnesota's WP is still just 16 percent.

What the model can't predict though, is that Buffalo will throw two passes in their three plays, both incomplete, therefore running just 1:02 off of the clock, and all of a sudden the Vikings have a real chance to win, although all seems lost when Cousins is sacked, and Minnesota goes into the two minute warning facing down a fourth and 18.

This is the game right here, and what happens ranges on the scale somewhere from unlikely to unfathomable.

This game happened nine months ago, and I still can't make sense of what happens on this fourth and 18 play. To say it in literal terms is fairly easy. Kirk Cousins throws the ball well over the head of Justin Jefferson. Everybody (including visibly dejected Vikings players on their sideline) thinks this game is over when Jefferson hits the ground.

It takes about half a second for everybody to realize that Justin Jefferson has just made the greatest catch they've ever seen.

Considering everything that I've just spent 32000 characters telling you (and we're only in week ten) about how Minnesota gets all the good breaks, about how they always seem to find their way to dance through the raindrops to take these wins that they don't deserve to get, I am stunned by this.

I can't call it a lucky break. It wasn't. It was an outstanding individual feat by one of the best players in the NFL, but considering the circumstances, this was unfathomable.

It's really beginning to feel like a personal intervention from the football Gods to keep the Vikings from losing any games.

One play onwards and they're at the Buffalo 17. Another play on and they're at the Buffalo three. It really seems like the Vikings are going to pull this off. That is, until Kirk slips and is sacked on first down. He throws an incomplete pass on second down, and the touchdown on third is overturned upon video review. It's now fourth and a short one. Not even a full yard between an exceptional comeback and wasting another break.

These are the 2022 Vikings, which did you think was gong to happen?

Considering how lucky they've been the rest of the year, I am shocked watching this game back as the QB sneak fails, and Minnesota turns it over on downs. With one timeout remaining and still down four points with 50 seconds left, this game is now all but over. Their promising 58 percent WP has plummeted right back down to five, and it seems as if the Vikings just aren't going to be able to pull this one out.

That's when the football Gods show their bias again.

In the largest win probability swing I've ever seen on just one play, Josh Allen can't take the snap on the attempted QB sneak to get out of his own end zone. Minnesota recovers the football for a touchdown to stumble into a 30-27 lead. Their WP has gone from an impossible five percent to a healthy 82 in just one play.

This play was such a radical swing that QB stats taking into account Win Probability Added (WPA) can substantially underrate Josh Allen for the whole 2022 season if not handled properly, based on this one play alone, where he generated an unbelievable 77 percent win probability lost.

When you see a play happen that modern statistical measures are not equipped to handle, you know you've seen something ridiculous. Things like this only happen to these Vikings.

They've never happened to any team before them. Not in these quantities.

If you can believe it, this game is still not over. With their remaining 36 seconds, the Bills drive down the field for a field goal that forces overtime, and this game has to continue. In OT, the Vikings again get inside the five but can't punch it in, taking a 33-30 lead with a field goal. In response, the Bills get to the doorstep of the end zone themselves, but they do it easily. They do it so easily that we all act shocked when the heavens align for Minnesota yet again and Josh Allen throws a second end zone interception of the game, and the Vikings get out of Buffalo with a 33-30 win.

Even if a casual didn't know who the football Gods were favouring in 2022, they know it now.

In sports, there are very few moments where you remember where you were as it was happening, but I remember this one. As this game was happening, I was in Toronto, watching the Eastern Conference Final of the CFL, the Canadian Football League. As this game was ending I was on the train home already, seated next to a Cleveland Browns fan, who was desperately rooting against the Bills (inter conference hatred I guess). We were watching the game tracker together.

Both being fans of AFC teams, we both weren't privy to the Vikings' exploits. Each of their lucky victories being against NFC teams after all, so when Kirk was stopped on the one yard line and Buffalo's WP moved to 95 percent, we turned off the game tracker and moved onto talking about other stuff on the train ride home. Knowing then what I know now, I would never have done that.

Of course Josh Allen was going to fumble the snap and singlehandedly cause a WP swing so big I'd never seen the likes of it before. How else could it have gone? If he'd gotten the ball out to the two yard line and knelt down the next play to end the game, like a normal game would've gone, it wouldn't be the Vikings would it?

It's not a 2022 Vikings game unless they're the beneficiaries of a bad fourth down play call by Sean McDermott, odd clock management by Buffalo (only running 1:02 off with just four minutes to go), the greatest catch I've ever seen, one of the most unlikely fumbles in NFL history, and two crucial end zone interceptions, all to win by just three points.

That description of all the things that went right for Minnesota just in the fourth quarter and OT took over four lines. That is ridiculous.

We're only in week ten, but you can already see the point of this piece. No NFL team gets this lucky with this frequency. It just doesn't happen. It never has happened, and if it ever does happen again I will eat my hat. This is nearly impossible, and yet we were all living it.

Perhaps that's what made what happened in week eleven against Dallas seem so fitting.

Coming in as home underdogs, because of course they are, Minnesota gets beaten into the ground by the Cowboys. Perhaps understanding the folly of Buffalo, Dallas pounds Minnesota, getting so far ahead that no amount of lucky breaks in the world can save them. The Vikings spend pretty much the whole second half stuck on zero percent WP on their way to a brutal 40-3 home loss.

That's how you have to beat these Vikings. You have to stick them in a situation they have (in literal terms) no chance to come back from, elsewise they and the football Gods with collude in a manner that causes you to lose the game.

At this point I'm convinced. The rule of thumb on NFL stats is that they crystallise at about week eleven. That's where we currently are. The Vikings currently rank 19th in offence and 15th in defence. Somehow they've parlayed this into an 8-2 record. They best hope that their level of luck also crystallises in week eleven.

After a surprisingly luckless (but still one possession) 33-26 win over the New England Patriots in week 12, it's indeed time for Minnesota to try their luck again. Their week 13 opponent is the New York Jets, currently sitting at 7-4. These Jets are good, but already on their 3rd QB of the season. Nevertheless (and further underscoring the lack of belief in our Vikings), we come in as just three point home favourites over a team quarterbacked by Mike White.

I feel the need to take a pause here. When was the last time you saw a team with a borderline top ten guy at QB come in as mere three point favourites at home against a team with a QB who will finish the season ranked 36th on my 2022 QB tier list? Not any that I can think of. The lack of belief in our Vikings is somewhat staggering, even against a squad as good as these Jets.

These Vikings are accomplishing things no team has ever done before, and now we have to go over the game. The game which sees Kirk Cousins take this elite Jets defence to the cleaners as the Vikings pull a 20-3 lead and go into the half with a 93 percent WP. The same game that sees the Vikings get one first down in the whole of the third quarter as the Jets narrow the deficit to 20-15. Because of course they have, the Vikings have allowed themselves to fall into another fourth quarter grindfest.

This pain seems to be alleviated when the Vikings jump out of the gate in the fourth to score an easy touchdown at 8:40, but it's right back on when they allow the Jets (who haven't scored a TD yet this game) to score easily in less than two minutes to bring the score back to 27-22.

How do you allow a team with Mike White at QB to score this easily in this situation? Being up twelve with less than ten minutes left in the fourth is a golden ticket to victory. Minnesota's WP was 95 percent. All they had to do to put this game away is just force the Jets to take four or five minutes to score, but they couldn't even do that.

Mike White is awful. The Jets (on offence) are awful. None of that matters to our Vikings, who at this point I'm starting to believe don't think the win counts unless it's exciting. They allow that sweet combo all the way to their three yard line in just 40 seconds. 1:04 later and the Jets are in the end zone, and the Vikings have just taken a situation that's nearly impossible to lose, and turned it into one where they have to work to win.

Again.

After a Vikings touch that scores no points and takes only about a minute off the clock, the Jets now have the ball at 5:30, still with the score 27-22, somehow with a chance to win this game.

Do not understate the importance of this Jets touch for both teams. We all know how the Jets' season goes in the wake of this game, but nobody knew it in week 13. If they score here, and push their record to 8-4, their spot in the playoffs is all but assured, and the AFC East is still in their sights (recall they already have wins over 9-3 Buffalo and 8-4 Miami). On the other hand, if they fail to score, and fall to 7-5, then they're behind 8-4 Miami, 8-4 Baltimore, and perilously close to falling behind 7-5 Tennessee, 6-6 Los Angeles, and 6-6 New England in the race for the AFC Wild card spot.

This drive is everything to the New York Jets. It is not quite everything to the Minnesota Vikings. The NFC North, barring a miracle, is already won. The first seed, barring a miracle, is already gone too, with Philadelphia sitting at 11-1 and not losing anytime soon. The only real meaning in this game for Minnesota is trying to hold off the hard charging San Francisco 49ers for home field advantage in their potential second round matchup.

With all of this said, about how this series is absolutely crucial to one side, and near meaningless to the other. How the future of the Jets' season rides on this, and how the Vikings are just playing for home field. All of that now known, who do you think the football Gods side with?

You've been reading this long. You know who they side with.

By the two minute warning (recall the drive started at 5:30), the Jets are on the four yard line, with four chances to score a touchdown and take the lead. By this point, the Vikings are reduced to calling their timeouts in hope that they'll get the ball to with enough time left to attempt to force OT in the wake of the inevitable touchdown. Their WP, which was at 95 percent just seven minutes ago, is now a scant 44 percent.

While everybody is worrying about that, the Vikings' defence stops Zonovan Knight once. They stop him twice. Garrett Wilson slips on a play action pass, and all of a sudden it's fourth down. No issue, because Mike White spots a wide open Braxton Berrios in the end zone.

This time, it's not the football Gods that bail the Vikings out.

White just misses. He throws it just a little too far behind Braxton, and the ball falls to the turf incomplete. There's a very appropriate image that for a split second TV shows, but they immediately cut away because they know what they're showing. It's Mike White walking off the field, head in hands, knowing he (and he alone) just cost the Jets this easy touchdown. The American public demands a loser, but the NFL is very slick in ensuring that their precious QBs are not put into that position, and as such they immediately cut away from White showing us what we all already knew.

The Vikings have just been bailed out again, but after three plays and a punt they're still not out of the woods. There's still 1:19 with which to try to score again, and the Jets do just that. They again march straight into Minnesota territory, and with 32 seconds left it's 1st and 10 on the 19 yard line. Here is where the Vikings finally lock in.

The ensuing four plays are two throwaways and two passes into double coverage, as Minnesota finally puts this game away, but boy did they make it look difficult.

This game will turn out to be the most offensive yards the Jets will gain all season, although they were still held to negative EPA/Play. This can happen because the anemic Vikings offence allowed the Jets to run a staggering 85 plays today, with 62 being passes.

Minnesota can even seem to pick their bad days at good times. We all know, if you allow a real offence with a QB that isn't Mike White to run 85 plays, you're dead. Luckily for them, it was Mike White, and as such they could pull out a close and exhausting 27-22 win (despite trying really hard to lose it) and move to 10-2.

For once, the Vikings were more or less bit players in their own story. They did get very lucky with the four goal line stops in a row, but there were no miracles today. At least not ones in the fashion we saw against Buffalo. Minnesota was just kind of there in this game, and it happened around them. Don't believe me? See the following list of the ten most important plays of this game (courtesy of rbdsm.com):

Nine of the ten most important plays of this game happened with the Jets' offence on the field. The other was a Minnesota punt. That's a lot of Minnesota just kind of being there as the New York Jets lost the game around them. When you're the Vikings, you can even get away with that and win the game.

When you repeatedly see things like that, it starts to feel normal, so in week 14 when Detroit quietly pulls away and beats the Vikings fairly handily, and there are no weird fumbles, no lucky fourth down stops, no missed field goals, no Mike Whites, and no other miracles, it almost feels weird. I've become accustomed to Minnesota being impervious to anything except the Dallas way, which if you recall is to pin them to the dirt with a zero percent WP and ensure that no amount of luck will save them.

At 10-3 going into week 15, the Vikings are still clutching to the second seed in the NFC, but the margins have become razor thin. Any Minnesota loss will see them fall behind San Francisco and lose home field for the prospective second round matchup between the two, so each game is crucial from here on. Luckily for our Vikings (who have played their last six games since Arizona against quite good teams), there is finally something of a break in the schedule.

Their week 15 matchup is against the Colts at home. The Colts have won just one of their last seven games, but still the Vikings come in as 3.5 point home favourites, which is a mild insult, considering last week when the Colts went to Dallas (a team with fewer wins than the Vikings), they went as 11 point underdogs.

Perhaps before they left to go home after their 32 point loss in Dallas, they stuck around and got some lessons, because they were about to play our Vikings the Dallas way.

Before the Vikings could get so much as a first down, they were behind 30-0.

Wait. What?

That's right. By the time Minnesota could get the ball ten yards in three tries (5:18 of the second quarter), the Colts had scored at every time of asking except one, as well as two defensive touchdowns. One blocked punt, and one pick six.

Even this first down was no ray of light, as by the time we've reached this point the Vikings' WP is down to one percent. After a 40 yard completion is overturned and they have to punt the ball away again, we've reached the promised land.

The vaunted zero percent chance to win. This actually increases back to one percent when the Colts use their possession to kick a field goal to go into half with a 33-0 lead (instead of the very feasible 37-0), but when Minnesota goes three and out on their first second half touch, it's back down to zero percent.

This is it. The Colts have done it. They've done what only the Dallas Cowboys have so far been able to do to our Vikings. They've forced Minnesota into a position where no amount of luck in the world can save them. When the Vikings finally score at 8:48 of the third to make it 33-7 it doesn't matter. When they score at 1:19 of the third (following an Indy field goal) to make the score 36-14 it doesn't matter. None of this is enough to budge their WP off of the dreaded zero percent.

You know what it does do though? It causes doubt to seep into the mind of Colts coach Jeff Saturday.

In a situation, up 22 points with 1:19 left in the third, where there surely should be no more than the bare minimum number of passes for the remainder of the game, in an effort to take up as much clock as possible with every touch. Jeff doesn't seem to get the memo. On the Colts' next touch, they throw two passes, both incomplete, and end up giving the Vikings the ball back still in the third quarter.

This is the mistake that finally makes the difference. A quick glance at the Vikings' WP?

One percent.

From here, anybody who's been following the Vikings season long should know. It's over for the Colts. They've allowed the Vikings a sliver of light. They've allowed them the smallest possible chance. They have allowed the football Gods a chance to intervene.

It's the biggest mistake they ever made.

Despite the overwhelming odds against, I would be lying to tell you I'm surprised at what happens next. Don't get me wrong. If this were a normal team this comeback would be blowing my doors off, but this isn't a normal team. This is the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. By this point we all know. Any WP that is higher than zero percent may as well read one hundred percent, because everything is going to go their way.

I know when they score again to make the score 36-21 that their WP only reads four percent. To me it reads one hundred percent. When their next drive ends with a crushing Cousins interception that should've ended the game, an ensuing Colts touch again featuring two incomplete passes (what are you doing Mr. Saturday?) means that the Vikings' WP still does not read zero, so therefore reads one hundred percent.

Another touchdown that makes the score 36-28 keeps the Vikings' WP at one hundred percent, but on their next touch they do not score. This leaves 2:52 left and Minnesota losing by eight. Thankfully, they have all three timeouts, so their WP is still not zero.

You know what that means.

Of course Zach Moss steps out of bounds on what should have been the game ending first down. Of course Jeff Saturday doesn't have faith in his kicking game to try a 54 yard field goal to try to put the game away, and of course Matt Ryan fails the QB sneak on fourth and one that they try instead. Of course the Vikings get the ball back and it's not even the two minute warning yet. Of course the next play is a 64 yard catch and run TD for Dalvin Cook, and of course the Vikings convert the two point try.

Of course the score was 33-0 at 8:26 of the third quarter, and now (20 minutes and 58 seconds later) we're tied at 36.

How else could it have gone?

I'm honestly not that surprised when the Vikings get the ball with 1:10 left to try to win the game that they whiff.

Now that their WP is back above 50 percent, the Vikings can't do a thing. At this point, why would that shock you? This is what they do.

It also doesn't shock me that Minnesota gets into Indianapolis territory, but fails to score on the first touch of overtime. It doesn't shock me when Indy fails at their try too. It doesn't shock me that as the time runs out on the overtime clock, that Greg Joseph puts it through the uprights to win the Vikings this game 39-36.

Their WP was one hundred percent the whole time after all.

I know I slipped into playing a character there to narrate that game, but it was so ridiculous it couldn't have been done any other way. I am out of words to explain why things happen to these Vikings in the way they do.

Why did Jeff Saturday decide to throw 12 more passes after taking a 33-0 lead, just in regulation? I have no idea. Why did Zach Moss feel the need to get the extra yard to get the first down instead of taking a second and one and forcing Minnesota to take a timeout? I have no idea. Why did the final QB sneak that could've ended the game fail? I have no idea. Why was this Indianapolis offence that was so white hot in the first half held to three points in the second half plus a full ten minute overtime period? I have no idea.

We've truly seen it all now. Even the Dallas way doesn't work. Minnesota spent the whole third quarter on a zero percent chance to win. It still was not enough. The football Gods found a way to keep them in this game. Once the Vikings got into a position where they no longer needed a miracle to win, the Gods' help dried up (as it always seems to), and so after completing the biggest comeback in NFL history, they had to wait a further twelve minutes in order to win, because it took them three tries.

I'm convinced now that truly the only way to beat these Vikings is to not let them within 21 points at any point during the game. If you do that, you can win. Elsewise, they will find their way to crawl back through whatever crack in the door you leave for them, and they will beat you. As a player coming in to play these Vikings, that has to be somewhat intimidating. At the very least, it has to be frustrating knowing that everything will go your opponent's way. It has all season, and shows no signs of stopping.

I don't feel the need to detail the next two games. In week 16 they take a 70 percent WP into the half but end up requiring a fourth quarter grindfest to win against the Giants. This also becomes the third and final time the Vikings win despite generating fewer EPA than their opponents in 2022 (recall this is the concrete measure to tell if a team has won despite not playing better than their opponents).

In week 17 the Packers, who remain the only two possession victory on Minnesota's record to date, turn that around by taking the Vikings out the Dallas way. Before halftime Minnesota's WP is already zero. In the end, this loss does cause the Vikings to fall to 12-4, behind San Francisco in the NFC standings.

After two games that were rehashes of books we've already read, we do get to see something we haven't seen in a while in week 18: a dominating victory.

Yes it is over the Bears, but recall how the last matchup against the Bears went (big lead turned fourth quarter comeback). Just like the last time, the Vikings go into half with a 93 percent WP, but unlike last time, they're not giving this one up.

These are the Vikings, so they do allow the Bears to stay in this game for a frustratingly long amount of time, but the Tim Boyle-Nathan Peterman QB combination just isn't good enough to capitalise on the Vikings' mistakes, and Minnesota's WP finally gets to 100 percent at 5:54 of the fourth quarter of a 29-13 victory in Chicago.

That's it. The season is finally over, and it has been a magnificent display of how far luck can carry you in a sample size as small as the NFL season.

Allow me to let you in on a little behind the scenes in the NFL data world. When people are out there making expected win models, or analysing them, they often just fill one possession games as ties in order to protect themselves from the randomness that occurs in one possession games. This often gives much more accurate results about the quality of the team on the field.

Taking this approach with the 2022 Vikings dilutes their record to 2-4-11.

Eleven ties.

Recall the other teams that won at least 12 games that I mentioned earlier: San Francisco, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas. Taking this same approach with them does not dilute their record nearly as much. Here are those results:

San Francisco: 10-3-4

Kansas City: 8-0-9

Philadelphia: 7-2-8

Buffalo: 7-0-9 (recall only 16 games played)

Cincinnati: 7-0-9 (16 GP)

Dallas: 7-3-7

You can clearly see that none of the other great teams are so scalped by the normalisation of one possession games like the Vikings are. The only other team it may change anybody's opinion of is the Eagles, who go from 14 wins to eleven (taking into account that a tie is half of a win) with this approach, indicating that they were also quite lucky in one possession games, but nowhere near as lucky as our Vikings.

Using this approach, our Vikings go from 13 wins, which seems like a great season, to a brutal 7.5, which is not even enough to lead the NFC North. Minnesota's 2-4-11 actually comes in third behind Detroit's 5-3-9 record and even Green Bay's 4-4-9 using this approach. This indicates the Vikings, based purely on talent level, likely were not even good enough to be a playoff team.

In all, Minnesota finished with a point differential of negative three (15th; 7th in the NFC), and an expected win total of 7.92 (17th; 9th in the NFC). Ninth in the NFC in terms of expected wins indicates that these Vikings certainly were not playoff calibre, finishing behind teams as innocuous as the New Orleans Saints, and the New York Giants, in addition to the already mentioned Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers (none of whom are exactly NFC powerhouses). Going by expected wins, this is actually the worst team the Vikings have had since 2014.

The 2021 team that won eight games is better. The 2020 team that won seven games is better. Every team the Vikings have had since Kirk Cousins got there (and quite a few years beforehand) has been better than this one in terms of expected wins. All of these results except for the 2020 version (who went 1-5-10 with it) also hold for the turn one possession games into ties approach.

How can you turn 7.92 expected wins into 13 real ones?

Luck. Luck like nobody has ever seen before. The 2022 Minnesota Vikings won every last one of their one possession games, which is unfathomable and had never been done before (by a team with a decent sample size of them. I'm not counting the 2007 Patriots and their four one possession games here). As such, the Vikings were the first team in the play tracking era (which starts in 1999) to broach the five wins above expected barrier.

13 wins subtract 7.92 expected wins is 5.08 wins above expected, which is so far above what'd ever happened before that it's hard to even conceptualize. The only team in the play tracking era that comes within one full game of this is the 2012 Indianapolis Colts, who turned 6.88 expected wins into 11 real ones for a wins above expected total of 4.12. Prior to the 2022 season, even the four wins above expected barrier had only been broached twice. It's just hard to get that lucky over the course of a full season, but here came our Vikings to blow that out of the water.

If you're still not wholly convinced, I'm going to present one more angle as to how lucky these Vikings were.

The Vikings won all eleven of their one possession games in a row. Taking into account their lowest second half probability to win each of these games: 7% chance to beat Detroit; 36% in New Orleans; 56% over Chicago; 74% in Miami; 48% before the magic minute in Arizona; 16% chance down ten in the second half against Washington; 2% chance in Buffalo before the many miracles that happened there; 44% chance to hold Mike White at the goal line against the Jets; an extremely generous (and also arbitrary, for reproducibility plug any probability you want in here) 0.5% chance to complete the comeback over Indianapolis, and 44% chance again over the Giants in week 16, you get a probability of overcoming all of these odds as the Vikings did.

The answer?

0.00000000497. Or 0.000000497% chance of this happening. That is roughly 1 in 200000000, or one in two hundred million tries that get this result.

Recall the last time I discussed a team I posited that if you played the 2010 season 100 times, it would be difficult to find a better version of the 2010 New York Jets? Yet again, here come our Vikings to blow that out of the water. You could play this season two hundred million times, and still not find a better version.

That is my statement on the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. There is no need to discuss the playoff game that they came into as favourites (for some reason) and lost when for the first time all season nothing went their way. No need to discuss the regression of their once great QB. None of that really matters. All of it pales in comparison to the realisation that they were the luckiest team in NFL history.

Sometimes, the football Gods do pick favourites. Normally, these favourites are not the Minnesota Vikings, but for one glorious year, they were the belle of the ball. They were the fascination of lady luck and all of her friends. They could not lose.

Enjoy it Vikings fans. It's not happening twice.