The Tale of Jaguars-Chargers: A Study in Win Probability and the 'Impossible' Victory
A brief study of the Jaguars vs Chargers playoff game through the lens of win probability.
Full disclosure: I self-identify as a huge Jaguars fan.
The Jaguars were the home team, having just won 5 out of 6 to finish the season 9-8 after a 4-7 start. Their rookie QB, Trevor Lawrence, had finally gotten his career going, having been one of the worst in the league for the prior season and the beginning of this one. The Los Angeles Chargers were in a similar position, getting off to a 5-5 start and winning five of their last seven to finish as the top Wild Card team in the AFC, and were also going into their first playoff game in the Justin Herbert era. Although 2022 has been the worst season of his career so far, Justin has the chance to have it forgotten by winning the first playoff game for the Chargers since 2018.
The Chargers were favoured by the win probability model, having a 56% chance at victory at the time of kickoff, and Las Vegas, as they were two point road favourites. Two teams so similar to each other led to mild hype for this game, despite it being played between the two teams with perhaps the weakest fanbases in the league (sorry Jags fans!) Little did everybody know that they were about to see a special football game in a fundamentally different way.
1st Quarter; 15:00; 0-0 (44%)
This story, as all NFL stories do, starts with a kickoff and a return. The Jaguars get the ball, and Jamal Agnew returns the ball back to the 24 yard line. After this kick return, the Jaguars have a 44 percent chance of victory. Their win probability will not be this high again until 2:01 of the 4th quarter
1st Quarter; 13:40; 0-7 (26%)
1:20 into the game, and the Jaguars only have a 26 percent chance of winning? How could it have gone so wrong? Well, 37 seconds into the game, Trevor Lawrence threw his first of what would be many interceptions. Two plays later, and the Chargers had scored a touchdown, and in one minute and 20 seconds the Jaguars had taken a pick 'em game and made the Chargers into prohibitive favourites.
1st Quarter; 6:24; 0-10 (17%)
We're eight and a half minutes in and it's time for the first of many lessons in Win Probability. The Jaguars have turned the ball over again and allowed the Chargers to drive all the way to their four yard line. Despite there being over 50 minutes left to play, this is a crucial goal line series, and everybody knows it.
If the Jaguars allow another touchdown on this drive, then their win probability will sink below 10 percent, making victory almost impossible. This is the most important four plays of the season, for both teams, and what happens? Three consecutive incomplete passes. The Chargers are held to three points instead of seven. What is Jacksonville's Win Probability after this hold? 17 percent. Despite having allowed three additional points, the Jaguars' defence has just managed to increase their chances at winning the game.
1st Quarter; 4:44; 0-10 (14%)
It's 4:44 of the first, and the Jags have just gone three and out and they're punting. Remember those three points of Win Probability they just bought with their defensive stand? They're gone now.
1st Quarter; 0:49; 0-17 (8%)
The longest first quarter in Jaguars history is nearly over, and Austin Ekeler has just run for another Charger touchdown. The chances of the Jaguars winning have now fallen below 10 percent, and the goal line stand is a distant memory. It will now take a miracle for the Jaguars to win, and we're just getting started.
2nd Quarter; 7:02; 0-24 (2%)
In the interceding eight minutes, Jacksonville has only been able to manage another drive of three plays and punt. Los Angeles on the other hand has gone and scored another touchdown. The Jags have the ball again, but at a 2% win rate, they need to pray for a New Years' miracle.
2nd Quarter; 6:51; 0-24 (0%)
Yes. I am checking back in 11 seconds after the last stop. Why am I doing this? I'm doing it because the Jaguars have just committed yet another turnover. The Chargers have the ball on their 32 yard line, and Jacksonville has just reached the mythical 0 percent chance of victory. This comes even before the Chargers score the field goal that they will go on to score on this drive.
You will say to yourself: "0 percent? But they won the game!" That is true, and calls for a second lesson into the Win Probability model. Win Probability is calculated using past games from the NFL's history as a reference, taking into account all variables, weighting recent games more heavily. For example, over the history of the NFL, teams leading by ten points halfway through the fourth quarter have won the game approximately 90% of the time. This is what a 90 percent Win Probability is telling you. Think of this when the Win Probability stats pop up on the bottom of the game you're watching. This model is not predicting the future. It's relaying the past.
When the model says the Jacksonville has no chance of winning in this situation, what it really is saying is that no team losing 24-0 with 6:51 left in the second quarter without the ball with an offence and defence that have both played so badly has ever come back to win before. The Jacksonville Jaguars were about to change the model forever.
2nd Quarter; 4:28; 0-27 (0%)
The Jaguars have just taken a situation that is 'impossible' to win from and made it even worse by giving up three more points.
If anybody (except me) was still watching this game at this point. They deserve the reward they're about to get.
Halftime; 7-27 (3%)
It's now half, and the Jaguars have finally scored their first touchdown in this game. Although something has finally gone right for them, they have spent 30 valuable minutes having their Win Probability reduced to one fifteenth of what they started the game with. They are heading into the second half needing a miracle to even get this game within one score, and with only a three percent chance of winning.
3rd Quarter; 12:49; 7-27 (3%)
The Chargers got the ball at the half and proceeded to march all the way to the Jacksonville 38 in four plays, and are looking to score again. Any points on this drive will push the Win Probability back down to zero and put the final nail in the coffin of the 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars.
What happens in the next three plays is crucial to any chance of a comeback. The Chargers in this position (1st and 10 on the 38) are expected to score 3.6 points on this possession. 3.6 points would kill the Jacksonville Jaguars. For real this time. For a team that's already overcome a scant five percent chance to even make the playoffs after Week 12, this is an even taller hill to climb. These three plays will decide the season, so how do they respond?
Three straight incomplete passes. The Chargers have to punt again. Their 3.6 expected points have become zero actual points, and the Jaguars are still in this game.
3rd Quarter; 5:06; 14-27 (6%)
The Jaguars have scored another touchdown. This is now a two score game, so why has the Jaguars' chance of winning increased only to 6 percent?
The answer is simple. Jacksonville used up eight long, precious minutes to make up only seven points of their deficit. They have stopped the Chargers' offence only twice in the entire game up to this point, and one of those times they backed all the way to their own 38 in order to get it done, and there is only 20 minutes left in this game. This pace is not acceptable. The Jaguars cannot win this way
This is another lesson in Win Probability. Remember earlier how the defence gave up three points, yet still increased the probability of victory? The offence has just scored seven points. The deficit is now 13 points instead of 20. Yet, the probability of winning has hardly changed.
3rd Quarter; 2:51; 14-30 (4%)
Here we are. The Jaguars' Win Probability is back down to where is was ten minutes ago. The Chargers have just scored another field goal, but crucially, they only used up two minutes to do it. The Jaguars still have 18 minutes to score two touchdowns.
Why do I stop here? This does not seem like a very important spot in the game. The reason I touch here is the narrative. This game will be forever remembered as one that turned on a dime at halftime, and the Jags blew past and never looked back. This pit stop is in this post because it disputes that narrative.
The Jaguars' Win Probability at the half was three percent. Their Win Probability now is four percent. That does not paint a picture of a game that radically turns at halftime.
I propose that this game turns right here, at 2:51 of the third quarter. The Chargers taking only two minutes off the clock, combined with only scoring three points, leaves the door open for the Jaguars to get back into this game for real. The Win Probability will not be as lopsided as it is now ever again for the 2022 Los Angeles Chargers.
3rd Quarter; 0:40; 20-30 (11%)
The Jaguars have just thrown a 40 yard touchdown pass, but failed their conversion attempt. This leaves their Win Probability at 11 percent. This is the first time it's been in double digits since there was one minute left in the first quarter.
Looking back at this game, the context of this moment will get lost. The Jaguars have 15 minutes and 40 seconds to make up a two possession deficit facing down an offence they've still been able to stop only twice since the start of this game. This is a huge mountain to climb, hence the 11 percent chance the model gives them. Winning from this position would be a monumental comeback, independent of all the happenings already behind them in this game.
4th Quarter; 8:58; 20-30 (5%)
The Chargers have eaten up seven minutes driving all the way to the Jacksonville 22. They are now lining up for a field goal attempt.
Short of scoring a touchdown, this is the best offensive drive LA possibly could've asked for. They've used almost half the time left in the game and are about to go up by two touchdowns again. This is another opportunity to put the final nail in the Jags' coffin.
4th Quarter; 8:47; 20-30 (10%)
The field goal attempt was missed. Yet another chance for the Chargers to kill Jacksonville for good was not taken advantage of.
Putting my Jaguars fan hat on for a second, this moment, 8:47 of the 4th quarter, was the first time this game really felt winnable. Again though, let's not forget the context of this situation. The Jaguars now have the ball at their own 30 yard line, about nine minutes left, still down by two possessions, with an offence that's been sitting on the bench for the last fifteen real minutes. Their probability of victory is still only ten percent, largely because they are still not able to stop LA's offence. This game feels more winnable than it has since the 1st, but empirically speaking, Jacksonville is still in a deep, deep hole.
4th Quarter; 5:30; 26-30 (22%)
The Jaguars have scored yet another quick touchdown. Due to a penalty, they now have a decision to make: either kick for one point, or try for two points. This decision is complicated, but summarized here (Fourth Down Decision Calculator (rbsdm.com)).
The data says the extra point is the better way to go, but it's very close between the two options. Doug Pederson decides to take the following risk: on this two point try, the Jaguars face a 50/50 chance of success. If they fail, they will be down by four with 5:25 left. Their Win Probability will be 17%. If they succeed, they will be down by two with 5:25 left. Their Win Probability will be 24%.
4th Quarter; 5:25; 28-30 (25%)
The Jaguars' risk paid off, and now this game is within two points. Their Win Probability is now 25 percent.
The Chargers' offence now has the ball, and are touching the ball with only a two point lead for the first time since there was 5:33 left in the first quarter. They are still heavy favourites to win because they have not been held to three plays and a punt for the entirety of this game, and with this short of a clock left, eating up time is nearly as valuable as scoring points. This is yet another chance to finally kill the Jaguars, and put this comeback to bed.
To maintain hope of a victory, the Jaguars must hold the Chargers to one first down or fewer on this drive. They have yet to do this all game so far.
4th Quarter; 3:09; 28-30 (36%)
The Jaguars defence has just gotten off the field in three plays for the first time all night. Now, the offence has the ball at their own 21 needing three points to win the game. The odds are still against them, as they are expected to score only 0.7 points on a drive starting from this position, but they have scored touchdowns on every drive of the second half so far, and this time they only need a field goal.
4th Quarter; 1:27; 28-30 (37%)
The Jaguars have taken a minute and a half to drive to the Los Angeles 41. They are in a better position from a Win Probability standpoint than they've been in since the third play of the game, and yet they're facing a 4th down and one.
This is too far to try a field goal, so what is their best play to get one yard? The Jaguars have been a rush offence all season, and a very good one, but the Chargers know that. An additional element to this decision is the QB sneak. Due to rule changes for 2022, the sneak is more powerful than it's ever been, and are converted at a higher clip than ever before this season.
From the Chargers' perspective, this is one final chance to nail the Jacksonville coffin shut. This is their longest shot yet, but they have one final chance.
4th Quarter; 0:03; 28-30 (69%)
The Jaguars and Doug Pederson have just taken another huge risk, and it paid off huge again. They called the sneak defence beater, a run sweep to the right, and ran all the way into field goal range.
The only thing standing between the Jaguars and the second round is Riley Patterson's 69 percent chance of making this field goal. They have had a Win Probability above 50 percent for 37 seconds of this 60 minute game, but are one made field goal away from completing the impossible comeback and moving to the second round of the playoffs.
4th Quarter; 0:00; 31-30 (100%)
The Jaguars have completed the impossible comeback. They took a situation nobody had won from before, and then gave up three more points, and then came back and won the game.
This was the most statistically improbable thing to ever happen in an NFL game. However, I believe the Chargers' players have been criticized harshly for this. Too harshly. Allow me to explain.
The Chargers' offence failed to score on only four drives in this game. That is production that can win a game. Their defence held the Jaguars to a flat 0 EPA/Play. Most of that is frontloaded into the first half, but that is also a level of production from a defence that can win a playoff game. How can a performance on both offence and defence that can win a normal playoff game result in a loss in the most impossible to lose circumstance in playoff history? Allow me to explain.
The fault of this loss lies on two things. The first is extremely bad clock management and play selection. The Los Angeles Chargers ran 21 rush plays, compared to 48 pass plays. That is unacceptable in a game where you had a 27-0 lead. As a reference, that is the same play distribution as the Jaguars (21 rushes, 53 passes), who were trying to recover from a 27 point deficit.
In defence of Brandon Staley, the Chargers' rush offence was extremely bad in this game. -0.22 EPA/Play bad, but as mentioned earlier, when you're up by 20 with 25 minutes left in the game, seconds are worth more than points. For example, coming out of the half, the Chargers were leading 27-7, and drove all the way to the Jacksonville 38. There was one run and six passes. The drive took only two and a half minutes. If instead that drive took four minutes, who knows how the end of the game would've gone?
The second reason the Chargers lost can be interpreted as either choking on their part, or extremely clutch play from the Jaguars. The Chargers had five chances to seal this game. First, 12:49 left in the third, and the Chargers have first down on the Jacksonville 38. Any points here will sink the Jaguars. Instead, the Chargers throw three incomplete passes and have to punt. Second, 8:58 left in the fourth, the Chargers are up ten and kicking a field goal. If they make it, the Jaguars are down by two touchdowns and have almost no chance of winning. Instead, the field goal was missed. Third, 5:25 left in the fourth quarter, and the Chargers are winning by two points. Going and scoring any points on this drive will make it almost impossible for Jacksonville to win. Instead, LA goes 3 and out and punts. Fourth, 1:27 left in the game, and the Jaguars have only one timeout left. It's fourth and one on the Chargers' 41. If Jacksonville can't convert this, they lose. Instead, they rip off a 16 yard run and get into field goal range. Fifth, the most underrated way they could've sealed the game: if all of their second half drives combined had lasted three minutes longer, Jacksonville wouldn't have had the time to come back. Instead, as a team winning by 20 points, LA lost the time of possession battle in the second half.
The Chargers converted on none of these five clear and obvious paths to victory. To me, this is part skill and part luck. Five separate certain chances at victory are not lost without a lot of things going against you.
The Jaguars were more or less bit players in their own comeback. In my estimation, the reasons for their comeback can be boiled down to more things that the Chargers didn't do than things the Jags did do. However, if Jacksonville's offence hadn't scored a touchdown every time they touched the ball in the last 40 minutes of the game, none of this would've been possible. The defence also held the Chargers to only three points in the second half. Although they gave up a lot of yards, they deserve some credit for repeatedly getting the Chargers off the field so quickly.
The players never gave up, and they kept trying despite the impossible odds they were facing. The Jaguars' win in this game is the biggest testament to the never say never ideology I've seen in my sports watching lifetime. They made a win out of a situation that was 'impossible' to win from. Nothing is impossible.
