The Truth About Playoff Aaron Rodgers

The definitive statement about Aaron Rodgers' playoff performance.

Welcome back to my Sports Passion Project everybody, where I’m continuing my slate of playoff-centric reading for you guys by responding to a request by subscriber

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to touch on one of the most controversial topics of the new millennium NFL.

Was Aaron Rodgers a good playoff performer, or not?

It’s a good question. His meagre playoff record of 11-10 would not indicate that he was a particularly good postseason performer. However, merely stating his team’s record leaves out the fact that Aaron’s teams averaged 27 points in his 21 playoff starts. On the surface, these playoff point totals do not seem to indicate losses that are the fault of the offence.

So which is it? Is Aaron a clutch player, or isn’t he?

To answer that question, I’m going to dig deep into each and every one of Aaron’s 21 playoff games, plus three win-and-in regular season games, for a grand total of 24 starts where the Packers’ season was on the line. I’m going to do this in the exact same way I did it in my The Truth About Playoff Tom Brady article, by looking closely at each game individually, and putting it on a five-point scale. Like I did in the Tom Brady article, to avoid outcome bias, I will give my grade for the game before revealing its outcome to you.

In my opinion, a QB can play at five different levels in any particular game. The scale goes as follows:

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Not Good Enough: This is the worst possible tier a game can go into. My definition of ‘not good enough’ is for a QB to play at a level such that with a normal level of help, his team is more than 50% likely to lose. As with all other tiers in this scale, it is not purely statistical, but I’m going to tell you right now that it’s really hard to generate negative EPA and stay out of this tier.

Just to be clear, giving your team a less than 50/50 chance to win does not automatically mean you lose. Wins can still be given the ‘Not Good Enough’ grade.

Example L while being ‘Not Good Enough’: Justin Herbert, 2024 Wild Card vs Houston

Example W while being ‘Not Good Enough’: Jimmy Garoppolo, 2021 Divisional vs Green Bay

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Okay: This is the second lowest tier, and it’s just as it sounds. You’re giving your team about a 50/50 chance to win if both QBs were to have an equal level of help. Generally, games will be given the okay tag if it comes down to a key turnover, one big fourth down conversion, or something else in a football game that could’ve gone either way. Games with only slightly more than 0 EPA will generally end up here.

Example L: Jordan Love, 2023 Divisional vs San Francisco

Example W: Jalen Hurts, 2024 Wild Card vs Green Bay

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Good: Since playoff standards are high, good is the middle ground. A team is more than 50% likely to win with their QB playing this well, but it would not be the biggest shock in the world for them to be outdueled. Games where both teams score in the 20s generally feature both QBs having a ‘good’ playoff game.

Example L: Brock Purdy, 2023 Super Bowl

Example W: Patrick Mahomes, 2023 Super Bowl

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Great: A great playoff game gives a QB’s team a really good chance to win. Most of the time, if a QB is playing great, his team will not lose, and if he does lose, both teams will likely have to score 30+. However, it is still possible to lose and have ‘great’ attached to your performance.

Example L: Russell Wilson, 2012 Divisional vs Atlanta

Example W: Patrick Mahomes, 2022 Super Bowl

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All-Time Great: A QB playing an all-time great playoff game gives his team an almost certain victory. Ideally, an all-time great performance will happen in a blowout. However, it is still theoretically possible to lose if your opponent is also having an all-time great game.

Example L: Josh Allen, 2021 Divisional vs Kansas City

Example W: Jordan Love, 2023 Wild Card vs Dallas.

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Now that we’ve established the five grades that a QB’s playoff performance can get, we have 24 games to watch. Each and every one of them is going to be sorted into one of these five categories, and once that is done, we will have a true gauge on how good Aaron Rodgers truly was as a playoff player, independent of outcome bias.

We begin this quest with a game that people can never seem to decide whether to overrate or underrate.

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2009 Wild Card vs Arizona Cardinals

Aaron stats: 28-42, 423 Yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 0.34 EPA/Play

How fitting of Aaron Rodgers’ playoff career that we open with the highest scoring playoff game of all time.

People tend to mistake the fact that there were so many points, and say that this was the best played offensive game in playoff history. It wasn’t. That honour stays with Trent Green and Peyton Manning in 2003 until further notice. There is one all-time great in this game, but it isn’t Aaron Rodgers. The real head-turner here is Kurt Warner, and his 0.77 EPA/Play, one of the best playoff games ever played.

This is not the final time Aaron will be on the opposing sideline of one of the best performances in playoff history.

Your opinion of this game comes entirely down to how much you like comebacks. I have very little respect for comebacks. As far as I’m concerned, when you have to come back from behind, that means you fell behind in the first place, and the responsibility for that falls at the feet of the offensive players. The Packers’ offence gained just one first down in the entire first quarter, at the end of which they were behind 17-0, and if not for an extremely lucky Larry Fitzgerald fumble they would’ve been behind by more.

Give all due credit to Aaron for scoring every single time the Packers touched the ball after the first quarter to come back from a 17-0 deficit to force an overtime tied at 45, but in that overtime, he ultimately is the one that got sacked, turned the ball over, and lost his team the game. If this were an INT, I could’ve been a little softer, but since it was a sack that lost Green Bay the game, Aaron has to take all the blame himself.

This seems like a harsh verdict, but I have to be objective here. In the end, the two things that cost the Packers this game, taking Kurt Warner’s playoff heroics as given, were the offensive performance in the first quarter, and the crushing sack at the end. Perhaps if this had been done against a better defensive opponent, I could’ve gone great, but since it’s the 2009 Arizona Cardinals, it doesn’t quite cross that line.

Verdict: Good

Game outcome: Packers L 45-51

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2010 Week 16 vs New York Giants

Aaron stats: 25-37, 404 Yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 0.68 EPA/Play

I know what you’re saying. This isn’t a playoff game. It shouldn’t count.

However, this is my list. It does count, because when the 8-6 Green Bay Packers met the 9-5 New York Giants in week 16 of the 2010 season, the winner got to keep playing. The loser had to stop playing. That sounds like a playoff game to me, so it stays. 2010 Aaron Rodgers is one of the best playoff runs of all time, and this regular season game that the Packers had to win just to make the playoffs is where that starts.

Contrary to last season, where the Packer offence touched the ball 12 times, was able to score on just seven of them, and took the game ending sack in OT, all against a 2009 Cardinal defence not worthy of remembrance, this time Aaron was going against a top five defence in football in the 2010 New York Giants, and it was no contest.

Green Bay does come out of the gate slow, punting on their first possession, but the next two are both touchdowns to pull a quick 14-0 lead. There’s a bit of an offensive lull that lets the Giants tie the score back at 14 with five minutes left in the first half, but an immediate touchdown, field goal, touchdown sequence puts Green Bay in the lead 31-17, and they never give it up.

The Packers score two more touchdowns for good measure, and this is a performance that does not get remembered enough, especially considering the quality of the opposition. It’s basically the 2009 playoff game, but without all the mistakes, against a much better defence.

Verdict: All-Time Great

Game outcome: Packers W 45-17

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2010 Wild Card vs Philadelphia Eagles

Aaron stats: 18-27, 180 Yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 0.28 EPA/Play

Would you believe the Packers were actually underdogs coming into this game?

I’ve talked about 2010 Michael Vick before, and he is the reason people thought the Eagles were going to win this, but (in a theme that won’t become common) the Packer defence was relied on to win this one.

After scoring touchdowns on three of their first six possessions to take a 21-10 lead in the third quarter of a quick moving game without a lot of possessions, Green Bay put the offence in park and allowed their defence and rush attack to put this one away, which is what causes Aaron to throw only 27 passes in this game.

This strategy was on the verge of failing spectacularly when the Eagles pulled within one score with four minutes left, but it’s not Aaron’s fault that, even as Philadelphia was coming back, he was only allowed to touch the ball twice in the fourth quarter.

Not much to talk about outside of the first six possessions, but Aaron did well when actually allowed to touch the ball.

Verdict: Good

Game outcome: Packers W 21-16

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2010 Divisional vs Atlanta Falcons

Aaron stats: 31-36, 366 Yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 0.81 EPA/Play

Holy cow. Do you see those numbers?

To all who think Aaron is a bad playoff player, how does the second most total EPA ever generated in a playoff game, in a game where the Packers were once again underdogs, fit into that narrative?

People love to discredit this performance, because it came against the Falcons, but this 2010 Atlanta team was ready to go. It’s not like a lot of the other Atlanta teams that would come along later. At least for one half, they fought the Packers hard, keeping it within one possession for the entire first half, despite Aaron playing one of the best playoff games ever on the other side.

Green Bay did pull away by scoring touchdowns on each of their two possessions to begin the second half, sandwiched around an Atlanta three and out, which kept this game from being close, but this is something a QB gets credit for. Not a penalty.

This is the fourth playoff (or playoff-adjacent) game we’ve analysed, and this is the second all-time great one already. Are you sure we’re talking about Aaron Rodgers? The one everybody says is bad in the playoffs?

I’m not feeling that right now.

Verdict: All-Time Great

Game outcome: Packers W 48-21

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2010 NFC Championship vs Chicago Bears

Aaron stats: 17-30, 244 Yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 0.1 EPA/Play

This is the game that goes forgotten in the 2010 playoff run, for good reason. Both the New York and the Atlanta games are much more exciting than this NFC Championship affair played in frigid and windy Soldier Field. There are some things that go forgotten about this game though, and I’d like to talk about them.

In every game we’ve seen so far, Aaron has gotten roughly 50th percentile help from his rush offence. Not worth mentioning for either good or bad. In this one, he gets no help at all, as this game features just seven successful rushes by Packers that aren’t Aaron Rodgers, in 25 tries. This leaves Aaron to go it alone against another of the top five defences in football in 2010, albeit one weaker against the pass than most remember it being.

On the first drive, Aaron gets the ball every play except two, and the Packers walk right down the field and go up an easy 7-0. From here, most drives in this game will feature Aaron being put in a poor position by his rush offence at one point or another, which limits the Packer offence all day. It’s not really Aaron’s fault, but he has to bear the cross here for generating just 0.1 EPA/Play in a playoff game.

I can’t rank this better than okay, because the Packer offence gave chance after chance after chance to the Bears to claw themselves back into this game, but Aaron didn’t do anything to lose this game either. When the opposing QB is Caleb Hanie, playing not to lose is probably the optimal strategy.

Verdict: Okay

Game outcome: Packers W 21-14

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2010 Super Bowl vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron stats: 24-39, 306 Yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 0.23 EPA/Play

Nobody will ever say Aaron Rodgers’ epic Super Bowl run came as the result of weak opposition. Out of the top five defences in 2010, Aaron has now faced three of them in his five game playoff stretch. Considering the Packers are also one of the top five defences in football, there are truly no boxes Aaron left unchecked, in terms of defensive opposition. He knocked them all over, with the Steelers being the best of them all. The number one defence in the NFL.

Much like top five New York and even top ten Atlanta, the number one defence of the Pittsburgh Steelers did very little to hold Aaron back.

For now the third time in these 2010 playoffs, it gets tighter than it should in the second half after going into halftime with a 21-10 lead, pointing to an issue with scoring coming out of the half that will become a recurring theme for Aaron. More on this later. However, I give Aaron all the credit for scoring on each of the two most important offensive possessions he will ever have as a QB, the two fourth quarter possessions in Super Bowl 45.

The Steelers had pulled to within four points to start the fourth, but Green Bay said enough is enough, dropping Aaron back to pass on all but two of their offensive plays in the fourth quarter, putting the entire season on his right shoulder. In 2010, there was no better right shoulder to stake your season on, and the Packers score a touchdown and a field goal to get far enough ahead of the Steelers for Pittsburgh’s comeback effort to fall barely short.

It was an offensive slump in the third quarter that allowed the game to get this close in the first place, so I won’t gush too much over this performance, but for those who like end of game heroics, look no further. This is one of the best, and most important, fourth quarters any QB has ever had in the Super Bowl.

For whatever reason, this fourth quarter tends not to come up very much when playoff Aaron Rodgers is discussed. I don’t know how his only Super Bowl appearance could possibly be left out of the discussion, but oftentimes it is. It deserves to be talked about more, even if Aaron supporters should probably choose to leave out the third quarter.

Verdict: Good

Game outcome: Packers W 31-25

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2011 Divisional vs New York Giants

Aaron stats: 26-46, 264 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 0.13 EPA/Play

This is not an easy game to categorize, for two reasons.

First is that it’s hard to look at Aaron Rodgers’ performance in isolation, independent of outcome, when it takes place in the eighth biggest upset in the history of the NFL playoffs. It’s tempting to say that a QB did not play good enough when he’s taking a loss to the 8.19 expected win 2011 New York Giants, as a 15-1 team who had just won the Super Bowl the year before, largely due to one of the best QB playoff runs in history, featuring two all-time great performances, one coming against a much better version of these New York Giants.

The second reason is that this game features Eli Manning having an all-time great game of his own on the other side of the field. The only way to keep up with that is to have one of your own, but no matter how Aaron made it seem in 2010, you cannot just have an all-time great game every time you need one, meaning he was doomed to lose this game, almost regardless of how well he played individually.

It wasn’t that bad. Aaron was able to keep up with Eli, at least for a quarter, which against an all-timer is no lean feat. In the second quarter, a Packer drive stalls at the New York 43 yard line. If that drive had gone just gone five yards further, Green Bay could have kicked a FG for a second quarter lead, and who knows what may have happened?

Instead, a John Kuhn fumble (not an Aaron Rodgers fumble) puts the Giants in great position to go up 13-10. A Hail Mary at the end of the first half puts them up 20-10, and when you’re ten points behind a man having an all-time great game, it’s over.

Even in the second half, the Packers only get outscored 17-10. A Ryan Grant fumble really doesn’t help the comeback effort, and that is the story of this game. Green Bay turned the ball over four times, but Aaron himself only turned it over twice, and the Packers lost three different drives on the opponents’ side of the 50. If they could’ve converted those into points, they could’ve stood a real chance of winning, even with the defence playing so poorly.

The QB does have to take partial responsibility for this, but we also have to acknowledge that many of these offensive failures were not sustainable, and would’ve gotten better if we’d had the chance to play this game again.

I’m not willing to go Not Good Enough on this. The Packers did still score 20 offensive points today. We must remember that the 2001 Patriots won the Super Bowl while scoring 29 offensive points in a whole postseason. That’s what Not Good Enough means. This is not on that level. It’s on the low end of okay.

Verdict: Okay

Game outcome: Packers L 20-37

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2012 Wild Card vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron stats: 23-33, 274 Yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0.22 EPA/Play

Not the highest level of opposition in the world. When participating in the wild card round, sometimes this is what will happen, but every playoff game counts. Just look back to 2011 for that. You can’t take anybody for granted.

This time, Green Bay comes prepared for their inferior opposition, in a much needed bounce back playoff game. The Packers come into this game as 11 point favourites, and walk out as 14 point victors. Going up a quick 17-3 entirely nullifies Adrian Peterson and the otherworldly 2012 Minnesota rush attack. From there, the offence coasts, which prevents this game from grading any higher.

Verdict: Good

Game outcome: Packers W 24-10

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2012 Divisional vs San Francisco 49ers

Aaron stats: 26-39, 257 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 0.23 EPA/Play

Here is where it begins.

By ‘it,’ I mean the trend of Aaron playing well in playoff games, but getting outdone by another player doing great things. We saw it with Kurt Warner in 2009. We saw it with Eli Manning last year, but this happening for the second time in a row in 2012, this time against Colin Kaepernick, is where it truly becomes a trend.

These two teams trade haymakers for most of the game, coming to 7-7, 14-14, 21-21, and 24-24 ties. However, in the third quarter, another Aaron Rodgers playoff trend truly begins to take hold. The 49ers score yet another touchdown to move the score to 31-24, and the Packers cannot respond.

Yet again, the third quarter has been the bane of the Green Bay existence, a trend that will continue. On the first play of the fourth, SF scores another touchdown to make the score 38-24, and one quarter is not long enough to come back from such a deficit.

This could’ve been great under different circumstances, considering it was done against a top-flight SF defence (yet another top five opponent for Aaron), but in this case the verdict has to stay good because he was actually the weak link in the Green Bay offence. The rush offence operated at 0.39 EPA/Play on a 50% success rate in this game, compared to Aaron’s 0.23 on the exact same 50%.

Perhaps if the rush game could’ve gotten the ball more, this game could’ve gone differently. It’s hard to see this in the moment, but that fact that the sentence exists at all is enough to knock this game out of the great tier for me.

This game is where two trends begin to crystallise. Yet again, Aaron has been victimised by a great performance happening against him, and yet again, he fell behind in the dreaded third quarter, which he was never able to come back from.

Keep an eye on both these trends as we go along.

Verdict: Good

Game outcome: Packers L 45-31

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2013 Week 17 vs Chicago Bears

Aaron stats: 25-39, 318 Yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, 0.38 EPA/Play

The 2013 NFC North did not deserve to have a champion once the Bears benched the best QB in the NFL to bring back Jay Cutler, but since NFL rules dictate that all divisions have to have champions, this week 17 matchup between the 7-7-1 Green Bay Packers and the 8-7 Chicago Bears gets to have a playoff spot on the line. Chicago’s loss is Aaron’s gain.

In this win-and-in game, Aaron did not have to go against the best QB in the NFL (2013 Josh McCown). He got to go against Jay Cutler instead, although with Jay generating 0.4 EPA/Play on the other side, it did not help very much.

Aaron got off to a very bad start, with each of the first two Packer possessions ending in INTs. Thankfully, Jay got off to a slow start on the other side too, which allows Aaron to get away with just a 7-0 deficit out of these two turnovers. From here, it’s a slugfest. On Green Bay’s remaining eight possessions, they score on six. On Chicago’s remaining seven possessions, they score on three, but all three are touchdowns.

On the field, this means the Packers have turned this 7-0 deficit into a 13-7 lead by halftime, but by the end of the dreaded third quarter they’re behind 28-20, with Aaron having completed just three passes in the third. Once the third quarter finally ends, the curse against good offence ends too, as the Packers begin the fourth with a quick TD, but for some reason don’t go for the two point conversion and settle for being down 28-27.

Fast forwarding to the end, this decision to be down by one, instead of tied, means that on fourth and eight with 46 seconds left on the 48 yard line, Green Bay must go for it. On this fourth down play, Aaron makes what would be the most clutch throw of most careers (but not this one), finding Randall Cobb wide open behind the defence for a 48 yard touchdown, ensuring the Packers go the playoffs, and that the Bears do not.

This is yet another game that could’ve been killed by the third quarter, and came close to falling short again, but this time, Aaron was able to overcome the hole that his poor third quarter put the team in, propelling them to a playoff spot, in another fantastic fourth quarter performance, the likes of which we hadn’t seen since the 2010 Super Bowl.

Verdict: Great

Game outcome: Packers W 33-28

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2013 Wild Card vs San Francisco 49ers

Aaron stats: 17-26, 177 Yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0.1 EPA/Play

I’m still trying to understand what happened here.

In another game the Packers come into as underdogs, the pass game plays well, the rush offence plays well, yet the offence as a whole is quite mediocre. All of this without any turnovers, and many splash plays of any kind. Just look at the rbsdm.com snapshot of the ten most important plays of this game:

A fourth quarter fourth down pass from Aaron to Randall Cobb does top the list, but by and large, the Packers were just there as the SF 49ers played the football game around them. There are no negative plays here, but Aaron and the Packer offence did nothing to stand out either. That is prototypical okay stuff.

By the way, in a typical showing, Aaron completed just one pass in the third quarter, wasting a sequence of two punts in a row by SF coming out of the half, during which the Packers could’ve pulled ahead, but didn’t, instead remaining behind 13-10. Knowing in retrospect that the final four possessions went touchdown GB, touchdown SF, field goal GB, field goal SF, and the Packers lost 23-20, any points at all in the third quarter could’ve been very useful.

Verdict: Okay

Game outcome: Packers L 20-23

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At 11 out of 24, and not wanting to split the 2014 playoff run in two, we’re as close as we’re going to get to the halfway point of Aaron Rodgers’ playoff career. Here is his running tally:

All-Time Great: 2

Great: 1

Good: 5

Okay: 3

Not Good Enough: 0

We’re already beginning to see a pattern here. There is little bad (okay or worse in just three of 11 playoff starts so far), but there is also little great (great or better in just three of 11 playoff starts). Aaron’s problem is that he keeps finding himself in these 50/50 scenarios, playing merely good, and keeps winning approximately 50% of them (3-2 record in his ‘good’ starts). Additionally, Aaron has lost two of the three games he’s played okay or worse, which is also standard.

In sum, stats don’t often tell the full story, but so far Aaron’s stats are telling his full story. He’s won 60% of his ‘good’ starts, and all starts when he’s played better than good. Both are roughly typical figures, as is his 1-2 record in his three okay games. As of the 2013 offseason, Aaron’s record in playoff or playoff-adjacent games is 7-4, exactly where I would’ve predicted it to be, given his performances.

The thing that holds Aaron back in the public consciousness is that he’s constantly being compared against people who either a) are the greatest playoff players of all time (i.e. Patrick Mahomes), or b) have nonsensical records given their generally poor performance (i.e. 2001-2010 Tom Brady). Aaron’s comparison is not fair on either side.

So far in his career, Aaron has generated 0.261 EPA/Play in these 11 playoff matchups, compared to his 0.255 EPA/Play in the regular season. This does not paint the picture of a poor playoff player. This paints the picture of a player who shows up to play in the playoffs, just like he shows up in the regular season. He’s the exact same player, regardless of setting.

He maintains his performance against higher levels of competition (including five top five defences in his first 11 playoff games). However, at least as of 2013, he does not raise his performance level, and I believe this is people’s problem with Aaron Rodgers. For some reason, Aaron falls afoul of this misguided assumption that players are supposed to raise their game in the playoffs, even though Tom Brady didn’t, and Peyton Manning didn’t, and Joe Montana didn’t.

In a way this is flattering, because it speaks to the quality of Aaron Rodgers as a player that people in the early 2010s were expecting him to do what even these legends of the game couldn’t do, but it’s also quite unfair, because the reputation of being a poor playoff performer is already beginning to fester for Aaron, despite having one of the best playoff runs ever in 2010, and maintaining almost exactly his regular season EPA/Play level, against playoff competition.

Aaron has done nothing to earn this poor reputation. At least not yet. Not in my opinion. Let’s continue with the remainder of his playoff career, and see if he does anything to begin to earn this reputation that he’s been stuck with.

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2014 Divisional vs Dallas Cowboys

Aaron stats: 24-35, 316 Yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 0.33 EPA/Play

This performance gets buried, then and now, under the arguments over whether or not Dez Bryant caught the football. What’s missed in all this fracas is the breaking (at least temporarily) of Aaron’s habit of always struggling in the third quarter.

Aaron struggles badly in the first half of this game. He’s allowed to touch the ball just twice on the opening drive, which scores without his help via Eddie Lacy knifing through the Cowboys’ rush defence. This can’t continue all day, and from here onwards the rush defence is much improved, forcing Aaron to do some work.

He does not do well.

He fumbles the ball to kill the Packers’ second drive, completes just two passes on the third, and nearly ruins the two minute drill at the end of the first half by taking a crushing sack to put his team behind the chains, but a 27 yard catch and run to Randall Cobb at least allows Green Bay to get a FG out of it.

Still, this leaves the Packers behind 14-10, with NFLFastR’s estimated WP model putting this game exactly at 50/50 heading into the third quarter. Knowing what we know about Aaron’s playoff career, the third quarter is where good things go to die, so I wouldn’t have blamed any Green Bay fan for having serious doubts about their chances going forward.

This gets no better on either of the Packers’ first two offensive touches of the quarter. Aaron completes no passes on the drive coming out of the half time break, and completes only one as Green Bay kicks a FG off a DeMarco Murray fumble deep in Dallas’s own territory. At that point, Dallas scores a TD to make this game 21-13, and things are looking bleak.

However, when his team needs him most, Aaron shakes off his third quarter demons, with every play being pass on the drive that sees his team behind just 21-20 by the time the fourth quarter begins, and we know that once the fourth quarter starts, everything gets better again. The Packers touch the ball once in the fourth (aside from the garbage time possession), and they score on that touch to take a 26-21 lead that they never give up.

Even if Dez Bryant had caught the ball, that still puts Dallas ahead by three points with four minutes left, against an Aaron Rodgers whom the Cowboys had no luck stopping once he got going in the third. Do you think they would’ve stopped him?

I don’t.

Just short of great because of the first half struggles, but a fantastic second half means this was a playoff performance worthy of remembering, even if people don’t remember it.

Verdict: Good

Game outcome: Packers W 26-21

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2014 NFC Championship vs Seattle Seahawks

Aaron stats: 19-34, 178 Yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, -0.13 EPA/Play

This is the one that got away.

Looking back on all of Aaron Rodgers’ seasons, on all the championships that he could’ve won, but didn’t, 2014 is the one that sticks out the most. All that was left was the Seahawks, and the Patriots, neither of whom were on the level of the 2014 Packers.

This game starts out strong, with Aaron getting his team deep into Seattle territory on the first drive, before turning the ball over in the end zone, but then scoring on each of Green Bay’s next four offensive possessions (one TD, three FG), and getting deep into Seattle territory before turning the ball over again on the final drive of the half.

The Packers came out of the first half leading 16-0, having gotten into Seattle territory every time they’d touched the ball, and it looked like this Seahawk defence had nothing for Aaron at all, but you know what’s coming next.

The third quarter, where all good things go to die.

It’s better than most of Aaron’s playoff third quarters. He actually completes three passes in this one, but obviously the Packers score no points, and Seattle narrows the score to 16-7. Like clockwork, once the third quarter ends, so does the bad offence, and the Packers score another FG to make this game 19-7.

Something is fishy about the way this game was coached. When Green Bay got the ball up 19-7 with seven minutes left, this game should’ve been over, but Aaron got to touch the ball just once. When they got the ball with five minutes left and the same score, this game should’ve been over, but Aaron didn’t get to touch the ball at all. Green Bay scores no points either possession, as Seattle makes a mad comeback. These baffling decisions allow this game to make its way into OT, where the Packers never get to touch the ball.

The way this fourth quarter transpired was not Aaron’s fault, but the mind drifts back to the two first half turnovers deep in Seahawk territory, to the FGs that weren’t TDs, to the horrendous third quarter. To all the chances Green Bay had to get further ahead, and didn’t get further ahead.

That’s the QB’s fault.

Verdict: Not Good Enough

Game outcome: Packers L 22-28

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2015 Wild Card vs Washington Name Redacted

Aaron stats: 21-36, 210 Yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 0.35 EPA/Play

Did you remember that Green Bay were again underdogs coming into this one, on the road in Washington? The memes about playoff Kirk Cousins hadn’t got going yet. This game is where they start.

There’s not much to say about this one. A fantastic performance against an overmatched 15th ranked Washington defence that could provide very little resistance, even in the third quarter.

Verdict: Great

Game outcome: Packers W 35-18

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2015 Divisional vs Arizona Cardinals

Aaron stats: 24-44, 261 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 0.03 EPA/Play

We’ve arrived.

After 15 career playoff starts, we’ve at last arrived at Aaron Rodgers’ most iconic playoff moment, and one of the most iconic playoff moments in the history of the league.

This performance is a little hard to rank, because everybody who knows me knows that I think the 2015 Arizona Cardinals are one of the best NFL teams of my lifetime. However, this game is played after the Carson Palmer injury, which makes them a much easier opponent.

That doesn’t impact their defence though, so Aaron struggles quite badly for the first half, throwing a pick six, luckily negated by an unrelated illegal use of hands penalty on a defensive lineman, and only picking up two first downs in the whole first quarter, but the Arizona offence struggling quite badly on the other side means that a mere two FGs were enough to keep the Packers in the game, behind just 7-6 at the half.

At this point, we know the third quarter is coming. Aaron completes just four passes, but a miraculous Eddie Lacy 61 yard TD run means Green Bay actually comes out of their always-hellish third quarter ahead 13-10. However, when the Cardinals spend almost the entire fourth quarter on a grinding drive taking a 17-13 lead, the Packers go three and out in response, leading to a 20-13 lead, and on their final chance, Aaron is sacked to bring this game down to a fourth and 20, on the Packer four yard line, with one minute left to play, it would be generous to say things look bleak.

The Packers do the only thing they can do. They run a Hail Mary pass, which Aaron places perfectly into the hands of Jeff Janis for a 60 yard gain, but this still leaves Green Bay down seven points on the 35 with just 20 seconds left. An illegal motion penalty on a play attempting to get a bit closer to the end zone instead leads them behind 20-13 on the 41 with five seconds left, so the Packers do the only thing they can do.

They run a Hail Mary pass, which Aaron places perfectly into the hands of Jeff Janis for a 41 yard touchdown.

Two consecutive Hail Mary completions had never been done, and hasn’t been done since. It’s one of the most iconic drives in playoff football history, and almost makes you forget that this had been the worst playoff game of Aaron’s NFL career up to that point. I just cannot bring myself to place perhaps the best drive in history in the ‘not good enough’ category, so okay is where it must land.

Verdict: Okay

Game outcome: Packers L 26-20

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2016 Wild Card vs New York Giants

Aaron stats: 25-40, 362 Yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 0.34 EPA/Play

This game was closer than most remember it being, with Aaron struggling against yet another top five defence he’s had to face. As late as four minutes left in the second quarter, the Packers are actually still behind 6-0. It looks, just for a second, like the Giants are going to get Aaron again, just like they got him in 2011.

They’re not.

A one minute touchdown drive, a Giant three and out, and another one minute touchdown drive put the Packers up 14-6. The third quarter is not great, but less horrendous than normal, and Green Bay scores on each of their final four offensive possessions to run away with this game.

Not the most noteworthy performance in the world, but given the very high level of opposition (top five defence again), this was a fantastic playoff game.

Verdict: Great

Game outcome: Packers W 38-13

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2016 Divisional vs Dallas Cowboys

Aaron stats: 28-43, 355 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 0.36 EPA/Play

In terms of defensive quality, the one seeded Dallas Cowboys are not in the same league as the five seeded New York Giants that Aaron faced last week, and it looks like it. Aaron easily leads his team down the field for touchdowns on each of the Packers’ first three possessions. Unfortunately, against a team as good as Dallas, this is still only good enough for a 21-13 lead going into the second half.

Amazingly, the third quarter begins with a drive that consists of six passes, all complete, and a 28-13 Packer lead, but when Aaron looks up at the scoreboard, realises it’s the third quarter, and the next two possessions end in an INT and a three and out, here come the Cowboys. It takes all the way until the four minute mark of the fourth quarter (the Prescott-Elliott Cowboys were never known for their quick offence), but Dallas does manage to tie this game at 28.

Note that to this point, the Packers have had seven offensive touches, and scored touchdowns on four of them. This has not been a bad performance. It’s been a very good performance, but you just know that if Green Bay loses this, the vultures are going to be coming for Aaron, talking about how the team blew a 15 point second half lead, due to him messing up the third quarter again.

That cannot be allowed to happen.

What ensues is not the best offensive series you will ever see, but it’s just enough to get in range for a 56 yard FG. When Dallas ties the score at 31-31 with a FG of their own at the 40 second mark, we’re in need of some more fourth quarter heroics.

A bad sack takes this game to the brink of OT, with the Packers facing third and 20 on their own 32 with just twelve seconds left. Any sane team would just kneel the ball and take it to OT, but Green Bay does not have to be sane. They have Aaron Rodgers, who for the second year in a row, pulls out one of the best plays in football history, rolling out to find Jared Cook for a 33 yard gain that (in terms of Win Probability) was more important than either his Hail Mary passes from last year. It puts the Packers into FG range, and they win this game.

For the second year in a row, we’ve seen this man make one of the best plays in the history of the NFL in the waning seconds of the fourth quarter. Only this time, there was a great game in front of it too. Not all-time great level, but this is a game worthy of lauding.

Verdict: Great

Game outcome: Packers W 34-31

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2016 NFC Championship vs Atlanta Falcons

Aaron stats: 27-45, 287 Yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 0.32 EPA/Play

Remember in 2010, when the Packers played the Falcons, and I told you that Aaron put up the second most total EPA ever in a playoff game? Did you find yourself wondering about the very most EPA a playoff game has ever seen out of one player?

Yup.

Even in comparison to 2016 Aaron Rodgers, 2016 Matt Ryan is on another level, with his almost unbelievable 34.2 total EPA in this game making it one of the best performances ever seen in any game, regardless of regular or postseason. Taking this as given, the Packer offence never had a chance to make any impact on the outcome of the game, but look at Aaron’s stats.

This comes very close to being a great performance in its own right. Aaron generated 17.2 total EPA himself. That’s nothing to sneeze at, especially when we look across the league to see Tom Brady generating just 20.4 in the AFC Championship, while winning by 19 points. These are roughly equivalent performances. If Tom Brady were in Atlanta playing like that (0.44 EPA/Play by the way, one of the best playoff performances of Tom’s career), he would’ve been crushed.

It just so happens that Tom Brady was not here. Aaron Rodgers was. That’s not his fault. You cannot have a great performance in losing by 21 points, but this loss was not on Aaron whatsoever.

Verdict: Good

Game outcome: Packers L 21-42

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2019 Divisional vs Seattle Seahawks

Aaron stats: 16-27, 243 Yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 0.43 EPA/Play

From the blowout in Atlanta, we fast forward three years, into a stretch of playoff games that most in the audience remember, but what many tend not to remember is that many thought Aaron’s career as a top level guy was over. His 0.8 CPOE in 2017 and -0.6 CPOE in 2018 in leading the Packers to losing records each year didn’t exactly make it clear a comeback was around the bend. Plenty of people thought his broken collarbone in 2017 had started a spiral that Aaron would never recover from, and by 2019 he still truly hadn’t.

His CPOE in 2019 was still just 0.7, not indicative of a top level talent, but none of that really matters against the 19th ranked defence of the 2019 Seattle Seahawks, one of the worst defensive units Aaron has ever had the pleasure of facing in a playoff setting. In terms of EPA/Play, this is the best playoff game Aaron has played since 2010.

The Packers score three touchdowns in the first half, and against a team that is not the calibre of the 2016 Dallas Cowboys, this results in a 21-3 lead at the break, and that’s all she wrote. The Seahawks score a lot of garbage time points. None are of very much value, as the Packers were just too far out in the lead.

Verdict: Great

Game outcome: Packers W 28-23

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2019 NFC Championship vs San Francisco 49ers

Aaron stats: 31-39, 326 Yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, 0.15 EPA/Play

The 49ers are back, to take our lunch money at playoff time yet again. Against a team like this, the elite version of Aaron could’ve been very useful, instead of the 0.7 CPOE 2019 version.

Aaron plays quite well in this game, when not turning the ball over. Only six incomplete passes, and a 50% success rate, will work against the second best defence in the NFL in the 2019 San Francisco 49ers. This is another performance that was finished before it started, as Raheem Mostert’s personal success rate of 55% means the Packers were never winning this game, no matter what their offence did.

This performance would’ve got the not good enough label for scoring zero first half points, if not for a sliver of hope being down only 34-20 in the fourth quarter, before Mostert quickly shut that down again. Still, 0.15 EPA/Play against the second best defence in football is better than Aaron has played in some games that he has won. The stats are just too good to support a not good enough verdict.

Verdict: Okay

Game outcome: Packers L 20-37

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2020 Divisional vs Los Angeles Rams

Aaron stats: 23-36, 296 Yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 0.47 EPA/Play

Nothing to see here. Just dropping 0.47 EPA/Play on a 156 EPAA+ defence. The best defence Aaron will ever play in a playoff game.

Given opposition quality (a Ram defence that will carry the team to the Super Bowl championship in just one year’s time in 2021), I’m tempted to put the all-time great tag on this, but I think this game falls barely short of that lofty label.

Verdict: Great

Game outcome: Packers W 32-18

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2020 NFC Championship vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Aaron stats: 33-48, 346 Yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 0.13 EPA/Play

This is not something you see out of Aaron Rodgers very often.

In this game, the Packers fall behind 28-10, but truthfully don’t have a very hard time narrowing the score to 28-23, with two clutch third quarter touchdown drives. The Buccaneers start the fourth quarter with two turnovers, leaving the door wide open, but Aaron can convert neither into points, and from there the chance to win is gone. Green Bay does get one more chance to tie, behind 31-23, but can’t convert that one either.

This is the game that made me ask myself the question: how many times has Aaron ever had a chance to win a playoff game in the fourth quarter, that he didn’t win? His detractors would think this number is high, but it’s not. There’s the OT against Arizona in 2009, where his sack singlehandedly killed the team. He entered the fourth quarter down ten points in 2011. There was no chance to come back there.

In 2012, it’s the same thing. Aaron played well, but found himself down 14 points to start the fourth. There was no drive where he could’ve tied the game. In 2013, he had two chances to tie the game in the fourth, and converted them both, but just didn’t hold the ball last. 2014 is a weird one. Any scoring in the fourth quarter at all would’ve prevented that comeback, but when presented with 1:20 and a three point deficit, Aaron was able to tie that game and force overtime. We’ll call that a failure still, but it’s one with an asterisk.

In 2015, Aaron had one of the best drives in football history to tie the game in the fourth, but never managed to touch the ball again. In 2016, there was no chance of a comeback against the best QB game in playoff history, and in 2019 there was no chance of a comeback due to one of the worst performances by a rush defence in playoff history.

This means that in terms of chances to turn his playoff losses to wins, Aaron really only has had three. 2009, 2014, and 2020. All the other times he had no chance, either because he didn’t touch the ball last or because his defence had melted down to such an extent that there was nothing he could do.

I’m saying this to make the point that Aaron melting down in the fourth quarter was never a pattern, and I’m saying that because in the last three playoff games of his playoff career, it’s going to become one.

Verdict: Okay

Game outcome: Packers L 26-31

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2021 Divisional vs San Francisco 49ers

Aaron stats: 20-29, 225 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, -0.05 EPA/Play

We had to wait a long time for Aaron to generate negative EPA/Play for just the second time in his playoff career.

For context, we had to wait just two games for Tom Brady to generate negative EPA twice in the playoffs. Same with Peyton Manning. As far as failing to provide negative value in a playoff setting, there are very few that can stand with Aaron, but the 2021 49ers showed you can get to him.

This game happened three years ago now, and I still have no understanding of what went wrong. The Packers score easily on their first touch of the game to take a quick 7-0 lead, and look well on their way to dispatching an overmatched 49er team when they take the ball across midfield easily again on their second touch, but upon a fumble on a completed pass that stops this drive in its tracks, the Green Bay offence gets very little going for the whole rest of the day.

The 7-0 lead holds through halftime, and could’ve held through the whole game if not for a blocked punt that the 49ers return for a touchdown in the last five minutes of the fourth, which ties the score at ten. From here, there are four minutes left. The Packers have the ball. Through Aaron’s entire playoff career except for three occasions, this has been death every time for the opponent, but this time it isn’t. The Packers go three and out. The 49ers kick the FG and win this game 13-10.

Following those opening two offensive touches, Green Bay got just six first downs for the remainder of the game. This is obviously not good enough, but the Packers should have still lived to fight another day. In terms of total EPA, the Packers generated 7.43 more than SF did, yet scored three fewer actual points. That EPA discrepancy between winner and loser makes this one of the unluckiest playoff losses in NFL history.

It couldn’t have happened to anybody other than Aaron Rodgers.

Verdict: Not Good Enough

Game outcome: Packers L 10-13

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2022 Week 18 vs Detroit Lions

Aaron stats: 17-27, 205 Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 0.04 EPA/Play

For the final game Aaron ever played with the season on the line, we go to the final game of the 2022 regular season, where if the Packers won, they would be guaranteed a wild card position, playing against a Detroit Lion team that was playing for nothing.

It’s a sad end to a great crunch time career.

Against the second worst defence in the entire NFL in 2022, Aaron is able to get the ball into the red zone just twice, converting only one of these chances into a touchdown, and instead of walking it off with some fourth quarter heroics to take his team to the playoffs one final time, like Tom Brady did, Aaron gets the ball behind 20-16 in the final four minutes, and ends his Packers career with an interception thrown to Kerby Joseph.

Verdict: Not Good Enough

Game outcome: Packers L 16-20

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That’s that. We have now analysed every game Aaron Rodgers ever played that was either in the playoffs or adjacent to them. This is his final tally for his 24 career starts:

All-Time Great: 2

Great: 6

Good: 7

Okay: 6

Not Good Enough: 3

In the end, this ended up looking like a nice bell-curve. Out of Aaron’s 24 playoff starts, he was great or better in one third of them (eight out of 24), okay or worse in 37.5% of them (nine out of 24) and merely good in the remaining 29.2% (seven out of 24). What may strike you, given all the slander Aaron has undergone for his supposed playoff underperformance, is that this is not an unordinary postseason results distribution for a great player.

What separates Aaron from the supposedly ‘elite’ playoff players (other than Patrick Mahomes and Kurt Warner, who are head and shoulders above the field) is the teams and environments these players had around them. For instance, while Tom Brady was somehow able to luck his way into a 10-11 record in games where his play was not up to snuff, Aaron was able to win just once.

A 1-8 record in games where he played okay or worse.

In terms of the games where the players played good or better, Aaron won all but three, finishing his career with a 12-3 record in playoff games where he played well. This is roughly equivalent to Tom Brady’s 26-3 record in games where he played good or better.

What I’m trying to get at with this analysis is that both Aaron and Tom blew up in the playoffs quite often, 37.5% and 42% of all playoff games, respectively. However, when either played well, they both verged on unbeatable. The only thing that separates these two in the public conscious is the combination of luck and team quality that goes into winning when a QB plays less than his best. Tom had a lot of it (0.475 win percentage while playing okay or worse). Aaron had almost none (one win in his entire career).

I’m not trying to take a dig at Tom Brady here. You only consider it a dig if you underrate Aaron Rodgers. Aaron played below his best in the playoffs a lot. That I will grant you, but so did Tom Brady, and nobody seems to blame Tom for that. It’s not fair to apply a different standard to Aaron, unless you’re prepared to argue that Aaron was a fundamentally better player than Tom was.

It’s a double standard, one that I’ve rarely seen any non-Aaron Rodgers player have to face. When people said Peyton Manning’s performance plummeted in the playoffs, it’s because it was generally true. When people said Dan Marino struggled in the playoffs, it’s because he gets the ‘Not Good Enough’ label in six (some say seven, it depends on what you think of 1985 Cleveland) of his 18 playoff starts. These two had deserved reputations.

Aaron was not good enough in only three of his 24 playoff starts, with two of those coming in his final two games. Aaron is not Peyton Manning. Aaron is not Dan Marino. He played below his best often once the playoffs rolled around, but not in over half his games like Peyton or Dan did. He’s more in the 40% Tom Brady range, which clearly, given Tom Brady’s playoff reputation, is an acceptable range to be in.

I believe I’ve found the answer to the question I was asking. Was Aaron Rodgers a poor playoff performer?

No. I don’t believe he was.

The criticism of Aaron will always be that he failed to raise his performance level in the postseason on a consistent basis, with his 0.216 career EPA/Play in playoff games remaining extremely close to his 0.196 career EPA/Play in regular season games, but one of my favourite sports sayings is that the best way to be great in clutch situations is to be great in all situations, and Aaron personified that better than any player in football history.

The playoffs are hard. Aaron played against 11 top five defences in his 24 playoff or playoff-adjacent games. According to the gambling public, the Packers were money line underdogs in ten of these 24 games, but even against this extremely tough competition, he was able to keep to his career EPA/Play, on average, in postseason games. He did not wilt against the tough competition, and I think there’s something to be said about that.

Additionally, according to the same gambling public, Aaron barely underperformed at all in the winning department, as the Packers being moneyline underdogs in ten of these games very closely matches Aaron’s 13-11 record in the games we’ve analysed. This is the thing to remember when analysing Aaron Rodgers’ playoff performance, in comparison to Peyton Manning’s or Dan Marino’s playoff performance.

Dan and Peyton were both regularly tasked to win as favourites, and had trouble getting it done. That’s not the case with Aaron’s playoff games. Once it got to the later rounds, he was regularly not trying to win as a favourite. He was trying to climb a mountain. Sometimes he succeeded. Sometimes he failed. In sports, this is generally the result you get when you so repeatedly ask a miracle worker to work a miracle.

Aaron will never have seven Super Bowl championships like Tom Brady, but 0.216 EPA/Play in the playoffs is an exceptional average. It’s better than every active player (min. 3 starts) except Matthew Stafford (the best playoff player of his generation, if only he could just make the playoffs more often), and Patrick Mahomes (a close second).

Every team in the NFL wishes they could have a playoff performer as good as Aaron Rodgers. That includes the Bengals with Joe Burrow. It includes the Bills with Josh Allen. Go down the list. Two of them are better playoff players than Aaron Rodgers. Stafford, Mahomes, in that order, and that’s it. Take outcome bias out of the equation, and that’s all you’re left with.

It’s never fun to go on the internet to take a public stance defending Aaron Rodgers, but we’re objective here on my Sports Passion Project. Regardless of his personality, the criticism of his football career (especially his postseason career) must stop. It’s not correct. Even though he’s only got one Super Bowl ring to show for it, Aaron had a great playoff career.

Thanks so much for reading.