Their Year: Carson Palmer & Andy Dalton 2015

Two quarterbacks. Both are on a mission to silence their doubters, and both do get their redemption. However, the NFL takes it right back from them.

This article will feature two quarterbacks. These quarterbacks ranked first and second in the league in EPA/Play. They ranked first and second in ANY/A, and they ranked first and second in pressure to prove themselves.

Notably, neither of them are 2015 league MVP Cam Newton. I will talk about him in the His Year series, but by 2015, his year had come and gone. The two focuses of this story are Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton.

Why do I feel the need to tell their story together?

This story begins with Carson Palmer. A former first overall pick to the Bengals, Palmer had had exceptional seasons there in 2005 and 2006, but knee and elbow injuries had kept him from his ultimate potential in Cincinnati. After a bitter fallout between the two sides, Palmer would be traded in 2011 for a 1st round pick and 2nd round pick to the Oakland Raiders.

With this newly acquired second round pick, the Bengals would select QB Andy Dalton, and things would go well. He was no 2006 Carson Palmer, but he was more than a match for 2010 Carson Palmer. Going into 2015, the Bengals had never missed the playoffs under Dalton, but four straight first round outs (along with a mediocre 0.06 career EPA/Play since joining the league; 22nd among all QBs from 2011-4) served to dampen the enthusiasm around their new franchise QB.

In the meantime, Carson Palmer had been languishing on a hopeless Raiders squad not looking any better than in Cincinnati. His value had fallen to the point where the man the Raiders had given up multiple draft picks (including a first rounder) for was traded to the Cardinals for a conditional seventh round pick in 2013. Since that trade, things have been looking up for Palmer, but with both the 2013 and 2014 seasons hampered by injuries, the now 36 year old was out of time to waste.

For both QBs, their reputation in the football world had much suffered since their initial bright beginnings with the Cincinnati Bengals. Bengals fans were throwing around comments like "How does this choke artist still have a job?" and "If this team had Roethlisberger or Flacco how many playoff wins would we have?" This is not exactly glowing praise for the QB who’d just led their team to the playoffs four times in a row.

Carson was being called "an unremarkable veteran," and "forgettably competent." These are at least not insults like Dalton was getting, but are not exactly descriptions of a QB that fans are satisfied with. Do you think anybody ever called Brett Favre forgettably competent?

The 2015 season was set to be a defining season in both players' careers. Andy needed to prove that he could be a QB that could raise the ceiling of a playoff team. Carson had already proved that, but that was 10 years ago. He needed to prove he could still play for 16 games. If he could prove that, then he needed to prove 2006 Palmer was still in there somewhere.

Based on an aggregate of all QB tier lists I could find on the internet heading into 2015, Carson Palmer was seen as the NFL’s 15th best QB. Andy Dalton was seen as 18th. Aaron Rodgers was ranked first. Drew Brees was ranked third. Ben Roethlisberger was fifth. Russell Wilson was sixth. Joe Flacco was 12th. There was plenty of room to upgrade at the QB position for both the Cardinals and the Bengals.

Or so they thought.

In week one of the 2015 season, one of our QBs is already presented with a chance to prove himself. Carson and the Cardinals welcomed third ranked Drew Brees and the Saints into Arizona for a week one showdown. If Carson could outduel Brees, who was coming off a down season but still seen as the third best QB in the league, it would be an exceptional way to get his year started on the right foot. This is exactly what he'd do.

Going into the fourth quarter up only 17-16, the Cardinals needed some magic from Carson to win this game. They'd get exactly that. On the first drive of the fourth, Carson would lead the Cardinals on a seven play touchdown drive that only saw one second down. This drive would give the Cardinals an eight point lead that they'd never give up, eventually winning this game 30-19.

In week one of his defining season, Carson had put up 19 completions on 32 attempts for 307 yards and three touchdowns and generated 0.51 EPA/Play against an admittedly horrible 2015 Saints defence. Still, not bad for an old man with a bad knee.

In the next two weeks our other man would get his chance to prove himself. Andy would have to play back to back games starting with week two in Cincinnati against the San Diego Chargers and 11th ranked QB Philip Rivers, and then going to Baltimore to take on the division rival Ravens, led by 12th ranked Joe Flacco.

Andy would be spectacular in these two games, throwing for a combined 597 yards and six touchdowns against only one interception to lead his team to two wins, including a fourth quarter comeback in Baltimore, over two quarterbacks supposedly way above him in the QB hierarchy. This was the turning of a new leaf for Dalton. He'd never started a season this hot before, and he wasn't about to slow down.

Palmer had spent these last two weeks trouncing two more bad defences against Chicago and San Francisco, both also led by QBs below him on the tier list. The Cardinals were 3-0, and Carson had generated an amazing 0.47 EPA/Play so far, but he'd done it against defences that would go on to rank 32nd (NO), 21st (CHI), and 29th (SF) in EPA/Play allowed in 2015. He hadn't been tested. That was about to change. In week four the Cardinals were welcoming St. Louis, and their 8th ranked defence.

In this game, Carson would struggle. In a game featuring only 123 plays due to the Rams' persistent rush attack, Palmer would throw 29 completions on 46 attempts for 352 yards and generate 0.13 EPA/Play this game. The Cardinals got all the way to the Rams' 43 at the two minute warning on a potential go ahead field goal drive, but could get no further, and lost this game 24-22.

We've seen our first loss of their Year 2015, but the ones above are not bad numbers. You can win a football game with your quarterback generating 0.13 EPA/Play. However, compared to weeks 1-3, this was a disappointing performance, and many wondered if it was a sign of things to come. Were the first three weeks only an aberration?

It'd been one just okay week after three great ones, but the doubters were already coming back out. This is the life of Carson Palmer.

Andy had been having the same issue with not having any good defences to face. He was second in the NFL in EPA/Play through the first four weeks, behind only Ben Roethlisberger, but he'd done it against the defences of Oakland (30th), San Diego (19th), Baltimore (27th), and Kansas City (15th). Bengals fans were elated at his play, but not wholly convinced. None of the above were teams of the calibre Andy would have to worry about in the playoffs, but his week five opponent would be.

Cincinnati's week five matchup was against the two-time defending NFC champions, and 2013 Super Bowl champion, Seattle Seahawks, led by sixth ranked Russell Wilson and their 7th ranked Legion of Boom defence. Although this game is in Cincinnati, and Andy had led the Bengals to a 4-0 record so far, this is a big challenge.

This game right here, week five against Seattle, is where the new Andy Dalton is born.

Or is it?

At 8:51 of the third quarter, the Bengals are down 17-7. They've just gotten the ball back, but haven't scored since the first drive of the game. You can fall behind like this against Baltimore, but these are the Seahawks. Where is this new Andy Dalton I was promised?

Not here. This drive ends with a fumble return touchdown for the Seahawks. Not Andy's fault, but he didn't exactly throw a 75 yard touchdown pass either. Now down 24-7 to the defending two-time NFC Champions, with a supposed 'choke artist' as their QB, hope had to be running low in the Bengals fanbase. Was their most promising start in years going to fall short at the first real hurdle? Were they still the same frauds they'd been for all those years?

This is Andy Dalton's Year, and he's about to prove why this time it will be different.

Andy leads the Bengals to an astonishing 17 points in the final 12 minutes of this game to shock the Legion of Boom and the Seahawks and send this game to overtime. After 12 minutes of overtime in a game that would've been a tie under modern rules, the Bengals had beaten the Seahawks 27-24. Andy had beaten yet another QB way above him in the preseason rankings. This was the new Andy Dalton. These were the new Bengals.

Over in Arizona, the Cardinals were getting set to face the no-Roethlisberger Steelers in Pittsburgh in week six. This was expected to be another easy Arizona win. The Cardinals were 6 point road favourites, but what happened was not that. An almost inexplicably bad Carson Palmer performance (0.08 EPA/Play against a good-not-great defence) sunk the Cardinals to 4-2.

Andy Dalton is 6-0 right now. Isn't this supposed to be Carson's year too?

This is Carson Palmer's Year. You don't believe me? I'll give you a little spoiler.

It's currently October 18, 2015. Carson Palmer will not lose again until January.

After two more wins by both teams and QBs (including a spectacular 234 yard, 3 TD, 0.450 EPA/Play performance out of Andy in a win over Cleveland), the Cardinals enter week 10 6-2, their first round bye looking more likely than not, chasing the 8-0 Carolina Panthers for the NFC number one seed. Meanwhile, the Bengals were the AFC number one seed, at 8-0, but were in a dogfight with the 8-0 Patriots and 7-1 Broncos for that spot. Despite Cincinnati having the better record, all the pressure to win remains on Andy.

As it turns out, week ten will prove a turning point for both teams. Arizona gets to take the same Seattle Seahawks test that Cincinnati has already passed, this time in Seattle, while Cincinnati gets to try to solve the always tricky (3rd ranked) Texans defence at home.

The weight of the world would finally catch up to Andy Dalton. Despite coming in as prohibitive ten point home favourites, Andy Dalton would be held to -0.05 EPA/Play (his only time all year in the negative) as Cincinnati would lose their first seed and fall to 8-1.

It's a different story in Seattle. Against their seventh ranked defence in a primetime Sunday night matchup, Carson Palmer would show out. He would throw for 363 yards and three touchdowns and generate 0.13 EPA/Play this game to lead the Cardinals to a fourth quarter come from behind win over the Seahawks. Carson has now forever put to bed the myth that he can't perform against good defence.

It's now week 11. Carson Palmer has generated 0.332 EPA/Play (1st), on a 7 CPOE (2nd) so far in leading his team to a 7-2 record. Andy Dalton has generated 0.248 EPA/Play (4th) on a 4 CPOE (6th) in leading his team to an 8-1 record. They are both having great seasons.

They've also both accomplished their preseason goals. Carson has proven he's still capable of playing like it's 2006. Andy has proven that he can be the type of player that raises the Bengals' ceiling. In my opinion, both of these players have nothing left to prove on an individual level. The doubters have long since eaten their words by this time. These are the two best QBs in the league. It's Super Bowl or bust from here.

So why do I check in here then? What’s so important about week 11?

I stop here, because this is where both of our men face their biggest challenge of their seasons.

They're about to play each other.

If you need any more proof than I've already given of the hype around these two QBs, take this. This game was flexed into primetime. I'll repeat. The NFL chose to move another game to earlier in the day so the Arizona Cardinals (the least talked about NFL team, based on social media data) versus the Cincinnati Bengals (they play in Cincinnati, enough said) could be played in primetime.

This is a wild thing to think back on. Joe Burrow vs Kyler Murray would never be flexed into the primetime slot, but Andy Dalton vs Carson Palmer was. Our two QBs would ensure we wouldn't be let down.

In one of the most forgotten great games of the last ten years (seriously, go back and watch this one folks. You won’t regret it), both of our QBs were hampered by nonexistent rush offences, and had to go it alone against their counterpart's great defence. They both delivered.

Carson Palmer torched Cincinnati's ninth ranked defence to the tune of 317 yards, four touchdowns, and 0.44 EPA/Play. Andy Dalton torched Arizona's sixth ranked defence to the tune of 315 yards, two touchdowns, and 0.26 EPA/Play. This game came down to who had the ball last, and after a game tying field goal drive in the last minute by Dalton and the Bengals, Carson Palmer took his Cardinals 57 yards in 38 seconds for the game winning field goal in a 34-31 Arizona win.

The Bengals had lost their first round bye position, while Arizona had cemented theirs, but neither of our QBs had truly bested the other. Fans were already dreaming of a rematch in Super Bowl 50.

After two more easy wins for each of our QBs, including Carson avenging the earlier loss to St Louis, it's week 14. The Cardinals are facing the Minnesota Vikings in a game where their first round bye would basically be assured with a victory. The Bengals are also facing a large hurdle on their path to a first round bye, but if they can beat the Steelers at home then they'll be in the drivers' seat.

In the Cardinals' final important game before the playoffs (catching 12-0 Carolina was out of the question at this point), they had to face the 13th ranked defence of the Minnesota Vikings. No matter though, Carson Palmer would have another elite game. Facing surprising resistance from a young Teddy Bridgewater, this game was a dogfight all the way down to the wire. Tied 20-20 with five minutes left, Carson would lead the Cardinals on a game winning field goal drive to take this game 23-20, and with it secure their first round bye in the NFC playoffs.

The Bengals were in no position to secure their bye. Not yet at least. Theirs was going to come all the way down to the last week of the season. Facing the Steelers at home, Cincinnati were coming in as favourites to beat the white hot Steelers (who were in their own dogfight for the last wildcard spot). After a Steelers first drive touchdown, Andy had driven the Bengals all the way to the Pittsburgh four yard line, and had them in position to tie the game. It was 2nd and Goal on the Pittsburgh four yard line when Andy Dalton's Year ended.

Wait... What?

Did that feel like a quick transition? I bet it did. Your feeling right now is the same feeling Bengals fans had in 2015. After everything I've just spent 15000 characters explaining to you about the past, about the playoff failures, about his own fans labelling him a choke artist, about him finally proving those doubters wrong, about the new Andy Dalton, this would be the last pass of Andy Dalton's Year. After an interception on a screen pass, Andy would try to make the tackle, and break his throwing thumb in the process.

It's all over. Andy will never get the chance to cap His Year off with a Super Bowl.

We're down to one.

Carson Palmer's week 15 matchup is a seemingly innocuous one in Philadelphia against the Eagles. Sam Bradford couldn't keep up with Carson, and so the Cardinals won this game easily by 23 points. Remember this game though, we'll be coming back to it later.

In week 16, the Cardinals met the Packers in Glendale, but with both teams' playoff positions secure, neither team was playing for anything. Still, this is Carson Palmer's chance against the best QB in the league, and he wasn't going to waste it.

This game was never competitive. The Cardinals were up 17-0 by half and 38-8 by the start of the fourth. They would win this game by that same 38-8 score. Although this game was for nothing, this is an important win. These are the Packers. This isn't the Saints or the Bears or the Rams anymore. This is a resounding win over playoff calibre opposition, and although Carson didn't play his best (only 0.11 EPA/Play this game) it's hard to notice these things when you've just won by 30 points.

The Cardinals' final game of the regular season is against the Seahawks. Recall the 39-32 victory in Seattle earlier in the year against these very same Seahawks as I tell you that Arizona lost this game 36-6 at home. Prior to this point, Arizona had been held to fewer than 20 points just twice all season. They'd scored a touchdown in every game. Now, in the last game before the playoffs, they've just scored only six points against Seattle. Carson Palmer generated only 0.01 EPA/Play in one half of play before being taken out for the second half (they had locked up a bye weeks ago after all).

The Cardinals had finished the season 13-3 and are going into the playoffs as the NFC second seed with a home playoff game ahead. These are great things, but something was wrong. Their quarterback had just played his two worst games of the year back to back to end the season. He would have to turn it around to take the Cardinals to their rightful place in Super Bowl 50.

Once it was decided that the Cardinals' playoff game would be a rematch of that 38-8 win over Green Bay, to say they were favourites would be an understatement. Arizona came into this game as seven point favourites (a gargantuan spread in a playoff game), but they still had to contend with the top quarterback in every preseason poll. It was time for Carson Palmer to have a real showdown with Aaron Rodgers.

Carson had yet another sluggish start to this game. He was only able to lead the Cardinals on one scoring drive and they entered the half up only 7-6. This wasn't what was supposed to happen. They were huge favourites. They were supposed to wipe the floor with Green Bay like they did last time. Something was just different about these Cardinals. They just don't have it like they used to.

Or do they?

In the second half, Carson would lock in. Finally showing the MVP form that'd been absent since week 15, Carson would lead the Cardinals on three scoring drives in only five second half possessions to have his Cardinals up by seven with two minutes left, but do you remember what happens next?

Does anybody remember that the victim of Aaron Rodgers' infamous two consecutive Hail Mary plays is our man Carson Palmer and his Arizona Cardinals?

Put yourself in Carson's shoes for a second. You've just taken a seven point lead over a Green Bay team that your defence has managed to hold to seven points in the whole second half. You've overcome your sluggish start to go get yourself and your team a lead over the man they said was better than you. Better than everybody.

You're watching from the sideline as your defence is shutting him down again. Fourth and 20 from his own four yard line with 55 seconds left. No way you're going to have to go back out there. Maybe just maybe you’ve let yourself start to think about Carolina. Then, the unthinkable happens. That man connects on two Hail Mary plays in a row and now you're going to overtime.

You know in your heart that if that man touches the ball again that he and his team will score, and you'll have lost as the prohibitive favourites. You'll have to endure yet another offseason of questions, and doubters. You'll be right back to being the old quarterback who can't last a full season. Your MVP calibre season will be forgotten. Nobody will remember that 2015 was your Year. Not his.

As Carson Palmer ran onto the field to start OT, all the pressure in the world was on his shoulders.

None of it mattered. Carson led the Cardinals on a game winning touchdown drive that lasted just three plays and only one minute. This is the most forgotten clutch playoff drive in recent memory. Staring down Aaron Rodgers on the other sideline. Knowing that only a touchdown could save him from another offseason of ridicule and constant rumours of being replaced, Carson ended all of that in just one minute.

Incredible.

Now that the Cardinals are in the NFC Championship game, I think this is an appropriate time to go back to week 15. Back to that innocuous game in Philadelphia.

I’ve been keeping something from you ever since week 15, and now it’s become pertinent to tell you.

In the third quarter of that game, Carson threw a pass and came down on a helmet in his follow through. In so doing, he dislocated the index finger on his throwing hand badly. That's the finger on the throwing hand most crucial for accuracy.

Playing through this injury, Carson had his worst two games of the year against Green Bay and Seattle as Arizona limped into the playoffs, but in a heroic feat he was still able to beat Aaron Rodgers in a playoff game.

Not Drew Brees. Not Russell Wilson. Not Joe Flacco. Not even Andy Dalton. Carson Palmer was able to knock off the very top dog, and he was able to do it through his extreme handicap. This is what should be remembered about 2015 Carson Palmer. Instead, in the next round of the playoffs, the doubters get their wish.

In the 2015 NFC Championship game, Carson would commit a brutal six turnovers (4 INT, 2 lost fumbles) against Carolina and their elite defence. Arizona would lose by 34 points to a Carolina team they were better than.

The best QB in the league, in the biggest game of his career, committed six turnovers.

To Carson's credit, he never allowed the finger injury to be used as an excuse. Larry Fitzgerald in the years since has claimed he believes that this finger injury is the reason he ended his career with no Super Bowl ring, but this only came out after Carson had left the Cardinals. He never allowed it to come out before then. He never made excuses for how badly he played in the last two weeks of the regular season, or the NFC Championship game.

That’s a compliment. Carson is a real man. Considering he won’t make them for himself, allow me to make his excuses for him.

Before the third quarter in Philadelphia, Carson Palmer had generated 0.339 EPA/Play (1st) with a 6.4 CPOE (2nd). He was the best in the world. After the third quarter in Philadelphia, Carson Palmer generated -0.051 EPA/Play (20th) on a -2.6 CPOE (19th). He was human.

While I have a lot of respect for Carson not allowing the finger to be used as an excuse, I'm not falling for it, and you shouldn't either. MVP level quarterbacks don't turn into AJ McCarron for no reason.

I've finally arrived at the reason I insisted on telling our two men's stories together. These two men have the same story. In 2015, Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer both started the season with questions coming at them from all sides. Despite this, in the middle of the season both had soared to be MVP candidates. They had an exceptional matchup against each other for supremacy, and then they were both robbed of their chance at the ultimate goal by untimely injuries.

We the fans got the privilege of watching both of these redemption stories in the same 2015 season, only to have the ending to both squandered by the unfair realities of the NFL. In the NFL, there are no happy endings. We never got that Bengals vs Cardinals rematch fans were begging for in the Super Bowl. In fact, neither of our men would ever make a Super Bowl. All the 2015 season had for them is what-ifs.

What if Andy Dalton had finished the year? Would the Bengals have gotten that number one seed? If they had, could they have beaten the Kansas City Chiefs in their playoff game? Considering they'd already beaten the Chiefs by 15 in week four, I know where I'm putting my money. Now that they've won a playoff game, could they beat Denver in the AFC Championship game in Cincinnati? Tom Brady couldn't do it, but Andy Dalton in this year, His Year, is a better quarterback than Tom Brady. There's a world out there where the Cincinnati Bengals make it to Super Bowl 50.

Who would they face once they get there? If Carson Palmer could've continued playing like his pre-week 15 self, why couldn't it have been the Arizona Cardinals? Why couldn't we get the rematch we all wanted?

But Andy Dalton couldn't finish the year, and Carson Palmer couldn't play like he did before his injury. Instead, both quarterbacks who'd been so effectively silencing their doubters were both robbed of their chance to etch their names in the history books as legends of the game.

Neither QB would ever get back to where they were in 2015. Carson Palmer would play another full season in 2016, but 2015 Palmer was gone. He'd been replaced by the old man version of himself, and would retire a year later. Andy Dalton to this day has yet to start another playoff game for Cincinnati or any other franchise. He would have one more top ten QB season in 2016 before regressing back to where he was before his 2015 breakout. He's still bouncing around the league as of the time of writing, but his chances of finally getting that elusive playoff win will never again be as good as they were in 2015.

This story goes to show you the fragility of NFL careers. These were the top two QBs in the league. Two years later, one was retired and the other was a negative EPA/Play guy. What will we be saying if two years from this date Patrick Mahomes is retired and Josh Allen is a bad quarterback?

But before all that, before all the injuries and all the regression and the heartbreaks and the what ifs and the rematch we never got, both players had 2015. They had Their Year.