2022 NFL Quarterback Tier List

I try my best at ranking every starting QB in the NFL in 2022

2022 was a down year for quarterbacks. It's impossible to get around. QB standards in 2019 were about 1.27 times better than they are now. As a result, rankings proved harder to make in this year than most others, as QBs with stats that just don't feel top ten calibre are sneaking into the top ten when they never would've before.

I say all that to make this point: please don't yell at me for these rankings. I know x player isn't top ten calibre. Blame the league for falling behind him. Please don't shoot the messenger.

This ranking will be done in terms of which QB I would've liked to have most on my team in 2022. As such, injuries or lack of playing time for other reasons will come into play and hurt players' ranks. This IS NOT a best QBs in the league list. Please don't take it to be one.

With all that said, here is a ranking of the 40 QBs who played enough plays to qualify in 2022.

Tier 6: Not Starting Calibre

40. Baker Mayfield: Carolina Panthers & Los Angeles Rams

2022 Stats: -0.123 EPA/Play (40th); -7 CPOE (40th); 4.81 ANY/A (36th) in 416 plays

I don't have to say much about 2022 Baker Mayfield other than that he ranked dead last in the two very most important QB stats, EPA/Play and CPOE, to make a competent argument that he was the worst QB in the league that started at least four games, which is the criteria to be included in this list. However, I will say this:

Baker Mayfield joined 2021 Zach Wilson, 2018 Josh Rosen, 2011 Sam Bradford, 2011 Blaine Gabbert, and 2009 Matthew Stafford as the only QBs in the CPOE era (since 2006) to play at least 400 plays and finish with a CPOE as bad as -7. The others are all rookies.

In short, Baker Mayfield is the only non-rookie since 2006 to be allowed to consistently play so badly over such a large sample of plays. One positive is that he did manage to keep the turnovers down, which allowed him to be not be the worst QB in the league by an even further margin.

39. Zach Wilson: New York Jets

2022 Stats: -0.091 EPA/Play (37th); -5.6 CPOE (37th); 4.97 ANY/A (33rd) in 296 plays

The modern day Rex Grossman himself, without any of the good bits. Zach somehow managed to finish 2022 with a 5-4 record despite consistently hamstringing his team with very poor play.

This isn't to say there weren't flashes of positivity. Zach got a win that aged very well in his second start of the year in week five against the Dolphins where he generated 0.22 EPA/play, which is more than respectable. Zach also played very respectably in the Jets' win over Buffalo.

The jewel in Zach Wilson's 2022 cap is that he finished with marks of 0.176 EPA/Play and a 2.1 CPOE in situations where the game was on the line in the fourth quarter, which was resoundingly better than QBs like Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert or Aaron Rodgers in clutch situations.

Unfortunately, the whole season can't be played in crunch time in the fourth quarter, so Zach is 39th, second worst of all QBs in 2022.

38. Joe Flacco: New York Jets

2022 Stats: -0.102 EPA/Play (38th); -4.1 CPOE (36th); 4.73 ANY/A (37th) in 213 plays

Joe is still kicking, but in his 15th year in the league, he had nothing to give for the Jets.

Aside from an exceptional performance to get the Jets a win in week two over Cleveland that they had no business getting, there just isn't much to say about Joe Flacco in 2022.

Four starts worth of uninspiring football land Joe in 38th.

37. Mike White: New York Jets

2022 Stats: -0.023 EPA/Play (31st); -6.2 CPOE (38th); 5.41 ANY/A (28th) in 191 plays

Yup. The Jets had three swings, and missed them all.

Mike White is an odd case. In terms of EPA/Play, he's rubbing shoulders with Russell Wilson. In terms of CPOE, he's not even as good as Zach Wilson. Will the real Mike White please stand up?

Considering his position on this tier list, you know my opinion on the matter. You cannot have a CPOE that bad and maintain an EPA/Play that high. You just can't. I think if White had gotten the chance to play more than 191 plays, he would've began to look a lot worse. If you look at his stats, his one great start against Chicago (and their 32nd ranked defence, might I add) really obfuscates the three below average (if I'm generous) starts against Minnesota, Buffalo and Seattle.

One great game can't get you out of not starter quality tier. Sorry Mike. You're the best of the Jets bunch, but you're 37th.

36. Cooper Rush: Dallas Cowboys

2022 Stats: 0.006 EPA/Play (29th); -6.8 CPOE (39th); 5.72 ANY/A (25th) in 181 plays

Wow. We've found a positive EPA/Play already.

We have, but take it with a huge grain of salt. Cooper Rush started five games in place of the injured Dak Prescott in 2022. In those five games he led the Cowboys to a 4-1 record, including a very good performance in a win over Cincinnati in week two.

What gives then? Why only 36th?

What we have is another Mike White. 181 plays did not allow Rush's horrendous -6.8 CPOE to impact results as much as it would've over a whole season. As a result, I think Cooper's fairly good performance in the results stats shouldn't be taken too seriously.

If this happens again, I'd be willing to reconsider, but for now, Cooper is 36th.

35. Deshaun Watson: Cleveland Browns

2022 Stats: -0.061 EPA/Play (35th); -3.3 CPOE (33rd); 4.79 ANY/A (36th) in 229 plays

Yup. Deshaun Watson in the not starting calibre tier. I'm not apologizing.

Remember, Deshaun wasn't starting calibre in 2022 only. I'm in no way projecting this poor performance forward.

Look at his stats. In none of the important QB stats did Deshaun rank in the top 32 in the NFL. Cooper Rush did. Mike White did. Deshaun Watson did not. How can anybody credibly argue that he was a starting calibre QB in 2022?

Deshaun took a very good offence that Jacoby Brissett had been doing good things with and turned it into one of the worst in the league when he took it over. Up to and including week 12 (the Jacoby Brissett games), the Browns' offence was well above average in both pass and rush EPA/Play, and was the 6th ranked offence in the NFL. In weeks 13-18, Cleveland's rush offence stayed above average, but their pass offence declined precipitously. The Browns' offence ranked 24th in the league in that stretch.

You see the difference? That's the difference between good quarterbacking and bad quarterbacking. Deshaun was not a starting calibre QB in 2022.

34. Carson Wentz: Washington Commanders

2022 Stats: -0.062 EPA/Play (36th); -3.7 CPOE (34th); 4.67 ANY/A (39th) in 336 plays

I feel bad for Carson Wentz. Originally brought in to be an upgrade to Taylor Heinicke, he ended up riding the bench for half the season, watching as his team won five of six to make a push for the playoffs without him.

Carson showed he still has some good stuff in him. He generated 0.26 EPA/Play and outplayed Trevor Lawrence in a week one win that aged very well over Jacksonville, and gave Detroit all they wanted in week two. Unfortunately for Carson, it was all downhill from there.

A string of bad games culminated with a week seven benching. Although Carson did get to play a bit more later in the season, his year was basically over.

I would have loved to put Carson higher. He is better than some QBs above him on this list, but I just can't do it. 34th it is.

Tier 5: Bad Starters and Good Fill Ins

33. Matthew Stafford: Los Angeles Rams

2022 Stats: -0.061 EPA/Play (34th); -0.1 CPOE (22nd); 5.18 ANY/A (30th) in 348 plays

Matthew Stafford was the biggest victim of the Rams' offence falling to pieces in 2022. His -0.1 CPOE is the exact same as in 2021, where he generated 0.201 EPA/Play and won a Super Bowl. This year, the same QB playing at the same level could generate only a 3-6 record before being shut down for injury.

Other than that, there isn't much to say about this one. There are top tier QBs that can carry very bad offences. In 2022, Matt Stafford proved he's not one of them.

32. Davis Mills: Houston Texans

2022 Stats: -0.105 EPA/Play (39th); -3.8 CPOE (35th); 4.98 ANY/A (32nd) in 564 plays

The first full-time starter to show up in these rankings, Davis Mills was the very worst starting QB in 2022. His 564 plays are the only reason he ranks above Matthew Stafford and Carson Wentz in this list.

One season removed from being a bright spot on a moribund Texans team in 2021, playing well enough to convince them not to draft a QB, Mills regressed hard in 2022. This isn't to say there weren't bright spots. Mills held the Texans in many games they shouldn't have been competitive in over the course of the season, including a barn burner against Dallas that you should go out of your way to rewatch, but his turnovers consistently put the Texans in bad positions.

If he can rediscover his 2021 form, Davis Mills can be a starter in the NFL, albeit not a very good one. Otherwise, I think backup duty is all that's in his future.

31. Mitch Trubisky: Pittsburgh Steelers

2022 Stats: 0.056 EPA/Play (21st); 1.6 CPOE (8th); 5.44 ANY/A (27th) in 214 plays

We've found our first of many subs that should've been starters in 2022. There are teams that would've benefitted from Mitch's full-time services. According to this Steelers fan, one of those teams is Pittsburgh, but I digress.

Put in the position of having to save Pittsburgh's bacon multiple times due to rookie Kenny Pickett's failings or injuries, Mitch answered the call, leading the Steelers to crucial wins over Tampa Bay and Carolina in impressive fill in performances.

Mitch Trubisky ranked top ten in a QB stat in the year of our lord 2022. 1.6 CPOE is unexceptional. It's probably more of an indictment of the league that it ranks top ten, but still. Top ten is top ten. If Mitch Trubisky started for the New York Jets, they would've been a playoff team.

Mitch's placement on this list is hampered only by his 214 plays this year. I would love to rank him higher. He is better than some people I have to rank above him, but I can't go with theoretical production.

Just know this. Mitch Trubisky was better than Kenny Pickett last year. He was better than lots of QBs around the league. Give him his chance, and he'll surprise you.

30. Taylor Heinicke: Washington Commanders

2022 Stats: -0.035 EPA/Play (32nd); 1.6 CPOE (9th); 6.07 ANY/A (19th) in 310 plays

We have our second QB in a row whose results were limited by their weak offence.

The Commanders bringing in Carson Wentz was not exactly a vote of confidence, but Taylor stepped up in 2022, leading the Commanders to a 5-3-1 record in games he started to bring them within an eyelash of the playoffs, but they fell just short.

Taylor is still a less than exceptional NFL starter with a bit of a turnover problem, but in 2022 he took a step forward in proving at least that he couldn't be replaced by the likes of Carson Wentz.

30th is unimpressive, but at least he was a starter. He'll do okay if he ever gets another chance.

29. Matt Ryan: Indianapolis Colts

2022 Stats: -0.053 EPA/Play (33rd); -0.1 CPOE (21st); 4.94 ANY/A (34th) in 541 plays

Matt Ryan got old quickly.

There's no other way to say it. Matt Ryan went from past his prime but still a good QB to old man in just one season. His average depth of target (aDoT) tanked to just 6.2 yards, compared to 7.8 in 2021. That's the shortest in the league.

That is the story of Matt Ryan in 2022. While he did show flashes that greatness was still in there, especially in week six against the Jaguars, he couldn't do it consistently enough to be a difference maker in the Colts' lost season.

Ryan's okay CPOE shows he can still be carried by a great offence if he can find one, but in 2022 the Colts were not a great offence with or without him. At least he proved he can sustain this level over a whole season, which is the only reason he's ranked above Trubisky and Heinicke, but I suspect he won't be above them for much longer.

28. Mac Jones: New England Patriots

2022 Stats: -0.031 EPA/Play (31st); -0.4 CPOE (23rd); 5.36 ANY/A (29th) in 528 plays

The 2022 Patriots should've been really good. The reason they weren't is Mac Jones.

After a stellar rookie season in 2021, Jones regressed in every statistical category in 2022.

Jones was benched after going the first three weeks of the season without even a good performance. Upon coming back, he did have some good ones, but nothing up to the level of 2021.

Looking at his CPOE shows again the results are probably a bit worse than can be expected, but in one season Mac has gone from looking like a solid option in New England to being spoken of as completely replaceable.

Mac Jones is 24 years old. He can bring it back around, but considering I have him 28th, I'm not sure I disagree with the sentiment.

Tier 4: Below Average Starters and Super Subs

27. Kyler Murray: Arizona Cardinals

2022 Stats: 0.026 EPA/Play (27th); -0.8 CPOE (27th); 5.16 ANY/A (31st) in 493 plays

What happened to this guy?

After 2020 and 2021 seasons that had him sitting on the borderline of top ten status, Kyler Murray came out and laid an absolute egg for a Cardinals team that was doing the same in 2022.

Looking at his ranks, he didn't even underperform his peripherals like Trubisky or Heinicke or Mac Jones did. 27th in CPOE translated to 27th in EPA/Play. This was an extreme down year for Kyler and a very worrying sign for the Cardinals. A QB throwing passes as short as Kyler did (7 yard aDoT in 2022) cannot be having a negative CPOE. It will kill you.

There were no awful or great games for Kyler in 2022. Every of his games were in the -0.211 to 0.211 EPA/Play 'meh zone' for quarterbacks. For a QB making as much money as Kyler does, I would like a lot more out of him than ten meh starts.

26. Kenny Pickett: Pittsburgh Steelers

2022 Stats: 0.028 EPA/Play (26th); 0.7 CPOE (18th); 4.7 ANY/A (38th) in 497 plays

I'm ready to be crucified for this ranking. Some will think it's too high. Others will think it's too low, but here's the crux of my argument. I don't care about fourth quarter comebacks.

I just don't. To me, all a fourth quarter comeback means is that you weren't good enough to be ahead after the first three. There's a reason Patrick Mahomes doesn't have that many.

With all that said, you can understand why I rank 2022's fourth quarter comeback king in 26th.

After four quite bad starts in a row to start his career that had me (a Steelers fan) very scared, Kenny turned it around in the second half of the year, leading the Steelers to six wins in their last eight to get to the final week with their playoff hopes still alive. This is mighty impressive for a rookie, but I don't grade on curves.

Unlike Kyler Murray, there was very little meh with Kenny Pickett. He either played great or quite badly, and together the two Kenny Picketts averaged out to the 26th best QB in the league. It'll be intriguing to see which Kenny wins out going into 2023. Kenny Pickett has top ten QB in him. We just have to see if he can find it.

25. Justin Fields: Chicago Bears

2022 Stats: 0.032 EPA/Play (25th); -2.5 CPOE (31st); 4.63 ANY/A (40th) in 550 plays

If you were wondering who was going to rank dead last in the other stat after Baker took the first two, you've found him.

Look at those throwing stats. There's no way to get around that Justin Fields was a very bad thrower again in 2022. I find it very concerning that his CPOE actually got worse from 2021 to 2022. Fields didn't take the second year jump as a thrower that Lamar Jackson did. Fields was also the most sacked QB in the league in 2022, despite an offensive line that ranked second in pass block win rate. These are both very real concerns for his and the Bears' future, but despite them, he still found a way to be a plus player.

A good example is week four against the Giants. Fields managed to generate positive EPA/Play despite completing only 11 of 22 passes for 174 yards and no scores. It takes a special kind of player to be able to make up for lack of arm talent like that.

No question about it, if this were a list ranking throwers, Justin would be down near Carson Wentz, but I'm ranking quarterbacks, and Justin was serviceable for a very bad Bears team in 2022.

24. Sam Darnold: Carolina Panthers

2022 Stats: 0.158 EPA/Play (9th); 4.8 CPOE (2nd); 7.13 ANY/A (7th) in 181 plays

Look at those ranks. I couldn't believe it either when I saw that Sam Darnold had played so well.

After another dreadful season in a career of dreadful seasons, Sam Darnold started 2022 as the third string QB option for the Panthers, behind Baker Mayfield and PJ Walker, but as the season wore on, both of those players played horribly. The Panthers were left with only one man to turn to.

In Sam's six starts, he turned the moribund Carolina Panthers into a legitimate playoff contender, and gave Tom Brady and the Bucs all they could handle and then some in the win and in week 16 game for the division.

This man was the definition of a super sub. In his 181 plays, Sam Darnold generated more EPA than anybody behind him on this list, plus a few people ahead of him, including Aaron Rodgers.

Sam did not get the recognition he deserved for this season, because of another super sub who we've yet to see that soaked up all the spotlight, but here's a thing that Sam did that other subs we've seen so far have not. In the earlier ranks, I talked about how the lack of plays made QBs look better than they were. In Sam's case, his 181 plays constrain how far his stats went up. Not down. Given more chances, Sam's 4.8 CPOE could've manifested in even better results than he got.

(I've written a whole article on 2022 Sam Darnold and the Panthers' remarkable turnaround. Click here if you'd like to learn more about him)

23. Marcus Mariota: Atlanta Falcons

2022 Stats: 0.073 EPA/Play (18th); -0.6 CPOE (24th); 5.85 ANY/A (24th) in 416 plays

After the brief excitement of great QB play, we must remember we're still in the mid twenties and sink back into the malaise.

Mariota's year with the Falcons went exactly to plan. He was an okay QB who had some good days, but in general was there to not embarrass the team, and to wreck a lot of survivor pools with his surprising degree of competency.

Like Kyler Murray, there's a lot of meh here, although Marcus did play great in wins over San Francisco and Seattle, both of which aged well, especially San Francisco. In my opinion, he could still be the starter for a playoff team under the right conditions, but apparently the NFL doesn't think so, as Mariota has signed in Philadelphia to back up Jalen Hurts for the 2023 season.

Mariota's okay play over 416 plays just barely gives him the edge over Darnold's elite play over 181 to me, but Sam got to go be the temporary starter for San Francisco. Marcus got nothing except a backup job in Philadelphia. Take that for what you will.

22. Brock Purdy: San Francisco 49ers

2022 Stats: 0.196 EPA/Play (6th); -0.9 CPOE (28th); 7.57 ANY/A (4th) in 206 plays

I'm not sure what Brock Purdy's 2022 season proved. To some it meant that you could put Kermit the Frog in the 49ers offence and he'd succeed. To others it meant Brock Purdy is the NFL's next new star. I must admit to fence sitting pretty hard on this one.

If I were grading the quality of the season based on quality of play, I think I would have to put Purdy below Sam Darnold, despite Brock's results being better. I also think Sam is the better option going forward, but since I don't rank based on talent, Brock's superior results have to take the day over Sam's elite CPOE.

Like Sam, Brock also started the season third on the 49ers depth chart, but due to fortuitous circumstances, got his chance to prove himself on the NFL level. Did he ever. Sixth in EPA/Play is mighty impressive, even despite the 6.6 yard aDoT. Over more plays I do think this would've come down, on account of the negative CPOE, but it is possible to be carried by a great offence to a great season in spite of average completion percentage numbers, so it's hard to gauge going forward.

Either way, it's fascinating to see Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy both on the same team in 2023. I guess we'll see for ourselves which comes out on top.

21. Ryan Tannehill: Tennessee Titans

2022 Stats: 0.072 EPA/Play (19th); 0.7 CPOE (16th); 6.39 ANY/A (13th) in 406 plays

After multiple seasons spent firmly in the top ten, 2021 and 2022 both have been steps back for Ryan Tannehill. 2022 was the first season in a Titans uniform Ryan fell short of the 0.1 EPA/Play mark, and he could only lead them to a 6-6 record in his 12 starts.

The Titans' rush offence was not the same in 2022, ranking 26th in EPA/Rush, which probably didn't help, but increased threat of the pass certainly would've helped the running game, as it did in 2019 and 2020 when the Titans' rush attack ranked fifth and second respectively.

There just isn't very much to say about Ryan Tannehill in 2022. With the Titans drafting Will Levis, 2023 will be a make or break season for him in Nashville.

20. Andy Dalton: New Orleans Saints

2022 Stats: 0.072 EPA/Play (19th); 0.7 CPOE (16th); 6.39 ANY/A (13th) in 406 plays

2022 was a good year for Andy Dalton. Starting the season as the backup to Jameis Winston, Andy got his chance after Jameis broke his back, and would never relinquish the starting job for the 2022 Saints.

In each of Andy's first five starts, the Saints managed to score 24 points or more. Over his final nine, they were able to score 24 points just once. This is not all Andy's fault (the Saints wasted a lot of plays on a rush offence ranked 27th in EPA/Rush), but it doesn't scream long term starter either.

This was probably Andy's final chance to start for a playoff team, given how bad the NFC South was last year. Unfortunately for the Saints, their season was done in by a 17-16 week 13 loss in Tampa Bay. A game in which Andy Dalton outplayed Tom Brady quite handily, might I add.

The gauntlet was thrown down for Andy Dalton in 2022. One season for the rest of his career. While he couldn't get these Saints to the playoffs, he still responded with his best season since 2016. Over the offseason, Andy signed with the Carolina Panthers. Should they need him to do spot work if Bryce Young struggles, I think he'll do a good job.

19. Russell Wilson: Denver Broncos

2022 Stats: -0.005 EPA/Play (29th); -1.1 CPOE (29th); 5.54 ANY/A (26th) in 626 plays

It's an indictment on the league that a QB who generated negative EPA/Play, on a negative CPOE, with an ANY/A well below 6 ranks 19th, but the best ability is availability, and 626 is a lot of plays with which to generate value.

I haven't said the words Russell Wilson because I wanted to emphasize how ridiculous this ranking is before the name value of the player involved can understate how bad his production was.

Would you like to know something interesting? With all the talk of how much of a disappointment 2022 was for Russell Wilson, does anybody remember how good Russell actually was in 2021? I remember, because last year on my list he was ... 19th. That's right. His ranking (according to me, and I'm a nobody, but take this for what it's worth) has not changed from last year. Maybe Denver fans just had their expectations set too high.

Russ had been showing signs of decline in Seattle, and they continued in Denver. In 2022, his mobility was mostly gone, and his aDoT was way down. These are both worrying signs, but the most worrying of all is the -1.1 CPOE. As of right now, Russell Wilson is still the career leader in CPOE. Another season like this one and Peyton Manning will reclaim his crown.

It's looking very gloomy in Denver right now, but I just can't believe the CPOE king will have another season in a row this bad. If he does, I can assure you that he will not be 19th again.

Tier 3: Average Starters and Injury Problems

18. Lamar Jackson: Baltimore Ravens

2022 Stats: 0.109 EPA/Play (14th); -0.6 CPOE (23rd); 6.12 ANY/A (17th) in 475 plays

Oh boy. It's the 200 million dollar man himself. Hello Lamar, and hello Lamar's fans. I'm sure you won't like this ranking, but just look at the stats.

In Baltimore, they like to think this guy is still an elite QB, but 14th, 23rd, 17th in only eleven real games means he's well outside of the top ten for the third year in a row. I'll let you in on a little secret. Lamar was much closer to Russell Wilson than to 17th place.

I'm sounding like a big bad Lamar Jackson hater right now, and to be truthful I'm not, but I just can't understand the hype around a man who's now had the worst season of his career for the third year in a row. I know he was ranked 20th last year and 18th this year, but that was more an issue of the league falling behind him than Lamar climbing any. Fans like to think it's still 2019. It's not. Lamar is nowhere near the best QB in the league anymore.

I'm not the only one who knows this. The NFL teams knew it too. If I had a nickel for every article I've seen over this offseason with the headline "Why Does Nobody Want Lamar Jackson?" I'd be a rich man. I never read any of them because the answer is simple. Would you want your team to guarantee $200M to a man who's ranked 15th, 20th, 18th in my QB rankings over the last three years? I certainly wouldn't. I think even the contract he got was a little rich (read here for more detail on why). I think I would rather my team had gone for either of the next two players for cheaper price tags.

17. Derek Carr: Las Vegas Raiders

2022 Stats: 0.092 EPA/Play (15th); -3 CPOE (32nd); 6.01 ANY/A (21st) in 575 plays

Derek Carr had been sniffing around the top ten for quite a few years coming into 2022. He's never quite been able to break in but he's been there or thereabouts. That is until he came out in 2022 with his worst season since his second year in 2015.

His results weren't that bad in 2022. 0.092 EPA/Play is okay, but look at the completion percentage. Derek Carr was trying harder passes than ever in 2022, but he's no Josh Allen. A -3 CPOE means he just wasn't completing enough passes to make the new approach viable.

There were select games here and there where it worked, with week five in Kansas City being a particularly bright spot, but in general Carr was carried by his offence to decent results. I honestly think there's 30 QBs out there that could've done what Carr did in 2022. Does anybody think that Mitch Trubisky couldn't have done as well as Carr with that Raider offence?

At first I thought that this was going to be a bad sign for a man looking to switch teams, but the Saints liked what they saw and brought him in on a four year deal to replace Jameis Winston. I'm not sure why they didn't just keep Winston if they were going to bring in a high aDoT, error prone QB like 2022 Derek Carr, but there's a reason I don't work for the Saints. We'll just have to see how it goes.

16. Jacoby Brissett: Cleveland Browns

2022 Stats: 0.115 EPA/Play (12th); 2.9 CPOE (4th); 6.15 ANY/A (15th) in 464 plays

Remember when I said in explicit terms that this is not a best QBs in the NFL list? Good. Just checking.

Jacoby Brissett had an amazing 2022 season, by far the best of his career. If allowed to play the full season he could've been much higher than this, but everybody, including himself, knew that he was coming in to start eleven games and eleven games only, but he played so dang good he must've made it very hard for the Browns to bench him.

I know that Cleveland offence was stacked, with an offensive line that ranked third in pass block win rate, and three top 40 receivers in Cooper, Peoples-Jones, and Njoku. I don't care. If you'd like to know why I don't care, refer to entry number 35. Deshaun Watson took this same great offence Jacoby had and played awful. Worse than Carson Wentz. If you wondered why Deshaun ranked below Wentz despite being better in every stat, the answer is Jacoby Brissett.

There are people who like to say that any QB can be great when surrounded by great weapons. I strongly believe this is not true. There was another team in the NFL with a top ten offensive line and two receivers in the top fifteen in 2022. Their offence must've been electric right? Not really no. It was the Pittsburgh Steelers, whose QBs ranked 31st and 26th. Not everybody can do this.

Jacoby Brissett ranked 4th in the NFL in CPOE while attempting the third most difficult throws in the NFL. The only QB better than Jacoby at making difficult throws in 2022 was Sam Darnold (look it up. I'm not kidding).

It's entirely possible that Jacoby Brissett's 2022 season is a perfect His Year candidate for the future and he'll never get back to this level again. It's also possible that he takes his 2.9 CPOE to the Commanders with him and he finally gives them the QB play they've been looking for to complement that defence of theirs.

15. Dak Prescott: Dallas Cowboys

2022 Stats: 0.154 EPA/Play (10th); 0.1 CPOE (20th); 6.08 ANY/A (18th) in 472 plays

Yet another wacky year in the yo-yo career of Dak Prescott. In the years since he's entered the league in 2016 he's ranked 6th, 13th, 18th, 3rd, 24th (injury shortened), 8th and now 15th. Consistency has never been a selling point with this guy.

It's hard to know what to make of this Dak season. Playing behind a very bad (28th in pass block win rate) Dallas offensive line, with only one top 40 receiver, Dak still had his highest aDoT since 2019. These more difficult throws might account for the uptick in interceptions we saw in 2022 (15 in only 12 games).

Dak is lucky that I'm the one making this list, because I think turnovers are overrated. They're not as bad as everybody says they are, especially when you've got that Dallas defence to lean on. Although Dak could've been ranked a lot higher if not for those turnovers, he still finished top ten in EPA/Play, which is nothing to scoff at.

This was not a great Dak season, but if his prior career is anything to go by, I expect him back in the top ten in 2023.

14. Aaron Rodgers: Green Bay Packers

2022 Stats: 0.039 EPA/Play (24th); 0.5 CPOE (19th); 5.95 ANY/A (22nd) in 624 plays

We are all the way to 14th in the list and we've finally found our first 17 game starter. No wonder the QB standards were a lot lower in 2022. The best ability is availability, and of the QBs that were available for all 17 games, Aaron Rodgers was the worst of the bunch, which is why we find him here in 14th.

Although the greatness of 2020 and 2021 was long gone for Aaron in 2022, he still managed to put up some good counting stats for the Packers in 2022. It's impressive he's still able to play 17 games a season in his late 30s, but by most metrics 2022 was the worst season of Aaron Rodgers' career so far.

In 2022, Aaron put up his worst career EPA/Play, and his worst career ANY/A. For fear of Jets' fans rage, I won't use that a-g-e word, but Aaron's top of the league accuracy was also gone. On average, Aaron was trying the easiest throws of his career in 2022, but his completion percentage was his lowest since 2019. 0.5 CPOE is distinctly unrodgers-like.

I know some Rodgers defenders will try to blame the quality of his offence. The Packers offensive line ranked fifth in pass block win rate in 2022, so there was nothing wrong with them. Rodgers did only have one receiver in the top 40 in 2022, and Christian Watson was only able to play 46% of the Packers' snaps in 2022. This surely couldn't have helped, but moving to the Jets to play with their 21st ranked offensive line and one top 40 receiver isn't likely to make this much better, so it's likely the reality for the remainder of Aaron's career.

The good news is the lack of injury history, and that Aaron's aDoT was actually up in 2022. This isn't a Matt Ryan situation. Aaron Rodgers is certainly not finished. At least he wasn't in 2022, but 14th for a QB as great as Aaron is not a good sign. I have faith that he can turn it around, but his career as a top flight NFL QB is on a knife's edge right now.

13. Jimmy Garoppolo: San Francisco 49ers

2022 Stats: 0.236 EPA/Play (3rd); -0.7 CPOE (26th); 7.60 ANY/A (3rd) in 362 plays

Oh boy. What to say about Jimmy Garoppolo?

Look at those ranks. The results are awesome, but the process to get them is a bit dicey. This is the thing with Jimmy G. If you're results oriented like me, you tend to think he's one of the best QBs in the league. If you're not as results oriented, you think he's a game manager being consistently carried by an exceptional 49ers offence.

Here's the thing though. Over the last four years (since the 2019 season) name me a QB that isn't Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady that's consistently performed at a higher level than Jimmy Garoppolo. You may think this to be an easy task, but once you remove the wild inconsistencies of Dak Prescott, and the mythical 'talents' of players like Lamar Jackson or Justin Herbert that just never seem to actually show up on the field, who are you left with? I would listen to arguments about Kirk Cousins or Ryan Tannehill, but at that point what are we doing?

It's not exactly the strongest time in NFL history at the position, but Jimmy Garoppolo is honestly carving out a niche for himself as one of the best QBs of his era. 2022 did nothing to stop this. Ranking third in EPA/Play and third in ANY/A is mighty impressive. Good enough for me to rank him over the 17 game starter Aaron Rodgers, despite Jimmy getting only ten games in. The best ability is availability, and it's the one talent Jimmy doesn't seem to have. Jimmy's 362 plays are the only reason he's out of the top ten. If he could ever get a full 700 plays in, somebody would be losing their top five spot.

2023 will be the biggest test for Jimmy. He's moving on to the Las Vegas Raiders. He'll definitely be an upgrade for them, but the real test for Jimmy's legacy is if he can keep up this same level of production outside of San Francisco. The Raiders are in no way a bad offence, look at how good of a season they carried Derek Carr to, but that AFC West is a brutal division to be in. In my opinion, the Raiders now have the second best QB in it, but Jimmy has to prove it to everybody.

Tier 2: Great Starters

12. Daniel Jones: New York Giants

2022 Stats: 0.113 EPA/Play (13th); 2.3 CPOE (7th); 5.89 ANY/A (23rd) in 656 plays

Who would've thought before the 2022 season started that Daniel Jones would finish it in a tier titled great starters? The NFL is a weird place sometimes.

While not quite being a top ten guy, Daniel belongs here. Coming into the 2022 season, there was one thing Jones had to do. Cut down on the turnovers.

At the beginning of this season, Daniel Jones was the all time NFL fumble king. After 2022, that throne has been abdicated back to Daunte Culpepper, as Daniel lost only three fumbles all season. Despite not really losing his sack problem, Daniel lost his strip sack problem, and that's the key thing.

Never one to throw many interceptions, Daniel turned that up to eleven by leading the league in interceptions per attempt in 2022, throwing only one interception per 94 pass attempts.

If the Giants can improve on their 29th ranked offensive line in 2023, expect Jones to get more comfortable with attempting longer throws, and his results to come closer into line with his seventh ranked CPOE.

11. Kirk Cousins: Minnesota Vikings

2022 Stats: 0.058 EPA/Play (21st); 1.3 CPOE (13th); 6.05 ANY/A (20th) in 747 plays

Somebody had to be the first man out of the top ten.

What is there to say about Kirk Cousins that hasn't already been said? Kirk will have great games and poor games and through it all he'll always turn the ball over just that little bit too much and have people criticize him for losing games despite him playing great in them.

I know Kirk's Vikings lost in the playoffs to a not very good Giants team, but Kirk generated 0.34 EPA/Play in that game. He's the last one on the Vikings that should be catching any flak.

I really wish there was more to say about 2022 Kirk Cousins, but he took an okay Vikings offence with a 22nd ranked offensive line and one top 40 receiver (although it is Justin Jefferson) and led it to perform like an okay offence. This is not bad but it's not above and beyond either.

10. Justin Herbert: Los Angeles Chargers

2022 Stats: 0.063 EPA/Play (20th); 1.4 CPOE (12th); 6.22 ANY/A (14th) in 798 plays

Welcome to the top ten, where we're still dealing with players ranked 20th in EPA/Play. Gosh, are we ever going to get to see some great QB play?

I'm not sure if Justin Herbert had anything left to prove in 2022 (he did rank 4th last year after all), but if he did he didn't prove it. 2022 was the worst season of Justin's young career, and it's given stat geeks like me who think Justin has always been overrated something to really hoot about.

The Chargers had three receivers in the top 40 in 2022. This should have been Justin's career year, but it just wasn't. The 23rd ranked offensive line couldn't have helped, but there are multiple QBs ahead of him who had worse.

Whatever the reason, Justin went from rather average in terms of aDoT in 2020 and 2021 to near the bottom of the league in 2022, with an unbelievably short 6.4 yards. That's a great way not to use your team's receiving talent. The lone bright spot on this season is that Justin posted a positive CPOE for the first time in his career. If Justin can get back comfortable with throwing longer passes and keep the accuracy gains he made in 2022, he'll be back at the top of the league in no time.

9. Tom Brady: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2022 Stats: 0.082 EPA/Play (17th); 0.7 CPOE (15th); 6.13 ANY/A (16th) in 804 plays

The dying breaths of a legend.

Tom Brady was not the same in 2022 as when I ranked him 1st in 2021. His aDoT was the lowest of his career. His 0.7 CPOE was as low as it had been in years. I think he picked the right time to hang it up for real.

With all that said, Tom Brady performed just as good as Justin Herbert did if not slightly better, with a much worse supporting cast. Justin Herbert had three top 40 receivers and an above average rushing offence to support him, and could still generate only 0.063 EPA/Play. Tom Brady had no top 40 receivers, an offensive line ranked 25th in pass block win rate, and the worst rush offence the NFL has seen since the 2019 season. He still generated 0.082 EPA/Play.

I am not a fan of Tom Brady. I always found his play style dull and boring and frankly not even that effective (Tom Brady is not exactly the CPOE king that Peyton Manning is), but in this his final season, at the ripe age of 45 years old, Tom was the whole Bucs offence. He was forced to play an astounding 804 plays (the 800 barrier is not broken very often), and still generated more EPA/Play than supposed top five QB in the league Justin Herbert. Enjoy retirement Tom. After this season, you deserve it.

8. Trevor Lawrence: Jacksonville Jaguars

2022 Stats: 0.132 EPA/Play (11th); 1.4 CPOE (11th); 6.66 ANY/A (10th) in 694 plays

From the old to the new. At number 8, please welcome the youngest addition to the ranks of the top ten QBs.

After a rookie season in 2021 of coaching chaos and frankly being one of the worst QBs in the league (ranking third last in CPOE is not encouraging out of a rookie, it's pretty much the worst thing you can see), me and my fellow Jaguars fans were very nervous coming into 2022. It was no longer a guarantee that he was going to be the saviour we've been looking for.

In 2022, he showed us we had nothing to worry about. He came out with much improved accuracy, while not significantly changing the difficulty of his throws. This is the sign you look for to see if a young QB is really coming along, and Trevor had it.

There are still things to improve on. After all, he is only eighth. He posted those very good numbers above despite a fairly severe turnover problem. 17 turnovers in 17 starts, plus five more in two playoff games, but this has also proven to be a thing that young QBs can grow out of. As long as the accuracy is there, which the 1.4 CPOE shows it is, then I'm okay with the turnovers, but if Trevor can address the turnovers, he's looking at top five status.

7. Tua Tagovailoa: Miami Dolphins

2022 Stats: 0.242 EPA/Play (2nd); 1.4 CPOE (10th); 8.37 ANY/A (1st) in 457 plays

Does anybody remember the noodle arm Tua comments that we heard for years prior to 2022? I'd say those have been sufficiently put to bed.

Tua came out in 2022 and threw the second longest passes in the NFL. His 9.7 aDoT ranked second in the league (behind Marcus Mariota of all people), silencing all the doubters talking about his supposed "good, but not great" arm strength. If you can have this good of a season with the second highest aDoT in the league, your arm is strong enough for me, but I digress.

Tua's only downfall in 2022 is that he did battle injury issues again, which limited him to only 457 plays and caused him to miss the Dolphins' playoff game. If he can keep the injuries in check, Tua has a great chance to look really good in the future for this Miami offence.

6. Geno Smith: Seattle Seahawks

2022 Stats: 0.086 EPA/Play (16th); 5.7 CPOE (1st); 6.54 ANY/A (11th) in 713 plays

When the Seahawks traded Russell Wilson and left themselves with a QB room of Geno Smith and Drew Lock, a big step down was expected. Instead, the Seahawks just got more of Russell Wilson.

Taking over from the king of CPOE, Geno decided that he'd have himself some of that, and led the league in CPOE himself. Along with this, he led the league with a true completion percentage (which excludes spikes and throwaways) of 72.3 percent, while ranking 15th in the league in throw difficulty. He wasn't just throwing checkdowns to fill out his completion percentage. Geno's 7.8 aDoT was quite healthy.

Despite playing behind a much improved Seattle offensive line (8th in pass block win rate), Geno still did have a propensity to take sacks, which he'll have to work on if he wants to take the last step into the top five. These sacks held his overall EPA/Play down some, causing him to be ranked lower than otherwise would be the case, especially given his accuracy.

The biggest shock of 2022 will have to keep his nose to the grindstone in 2023 and beyond to get those sack numbers down. If he can do that while maintaining his league leading accuracy, I see no reason why Geno can't be a great QB for some years to come.

5. Jared Goff: Detroit Lions

2022 Stats: 0.171 EPA/Play (7th); -1.4 CPOE (30th); 7.45 ANY/A (5th) in 664 plays

It's an indictment on the league in 2022 that we're into the top five and we're still not in the Super Bowl QBs tier yet, but in my opinion all the guys at and above this spot just couldn't cut it at the supreme highest level in 2022, although this man came close.

Welcome back to the top ten Jared Goff. We've missed you since you've been gone. I know I said Geno was the biggest shock in 2022 and I stand by that, but honestly, if I told you the Detroit Lions were going to have a top five QB in 2022 before the season started how much credibility would I have had left with you? I suspect not much.

Jared Goff has been put through the ringer since being ranked sixth in 2018. In the years since his career had been on a steady decline, ranking 16th in 2019, 20th in 2020, 26th in his first year with Detroit, and now fifth.

I know what you're gonna say, and it's true. A man ranking 30th in CPOE translating to seventh in EPA/Play reeks of a QB being carried by his offence. The issue with that line of thinking is this. Detroit's offensive line ranked 18th. Their best receiver ranked 32nd. These weren't exactly the San Francisco 49ers.

It's undeniable that Goff attempted the seventh easiest throws in the NFL in 2022. Among full time starters, only Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray and Matt Ryan attempted easier throws. Goff's aDoT of 7.1 yards is up from where it's been in his past few seasons, but still is quite short. This is all to say that despite Goff's 68 percent true completion percentage, his accuracy is still an issue going forward.

If Goff can bring his CPOE back closer to zero or slightly positive, then it's possible he can remain at this level. If it stays at -1.4, put my money on Jared Goff being the most likely person to fall out of the top ten for 2023.

Tier 1: Super Bowl QBs

4. Joe Burrow: Cincinnati Bengals

2022 Stats: 0.165 EPA/Play (8th); 2.7 CPOE (6th); 6.76 ANY/A (9th) in 740 plays

This is without doubt the hardest entry I have to write in this whole list. I have to justify why I consider a man who threw balls even shorter than Jared Goff (6.9 aDoT), ranked worse in basically every results based measure than Goff, and came with a serious sack problem that Goff didn't to be a Super Bowl calibre QB. Make no mistake. If I were the purely results based ranker that I claim to be, Goff would be four and Burrow would be five.

All of that said, I just couldn't leave Joe Burrow out of the Super Bowl QBs tier. Why is this? Is it because of his playoff performances? Not really no. Joe Burrow has played six career playoff games. In two he was great (2021 Vegas, 2022 Buffalo). In one he was good (2021 Kansas City). In one he was meh (2022 Kansas City). In two he generated negative EPA/Play (2021 Tennessee, 2021 Super Bowl). In short, Joe Burrow has been all over the page in his playoff performances, so they can't be used to aid his case. What else is there?

I can't get over Goff's accuracy problems. I just can't do it. Burrow's 2.7 CPOE is doing almost all of the heavy lifting in getting him this fourth place ranking over Jared Goff. Despite Burrow's throws often being shorter, he actually ranked ahead of Goff in terms of throw difficulty. Sixth in the league in CPOE, especially in a year with so many part timers, is mighty impressive, and I just can't look past it.

This ranking is the one I have the least confidence in in this whole list. By all means, if on your list you'd like to take Burrow out of tier one to put him behind Jared Goff be my guest. Burrow is only in the Super Bowl QB tier as a courtesy anyway. It felt too pessimistic to say there's only three people in the whole league capable of winning the Super Bowl for you. I may even move him myself over the course of this offseason as I think back on these rankings more and more, but as a person who values accuracy in my QBs above all else, Joe Burrow is great at that. On my list, he's number four.

3. Jalen Hurts: Philadelphia Eagles

2022 Stats: 0.213 EPA/Play (5th); 2.7 CPOE (5th); 7.31 ANY/A (6th) in 677 plays

Now that we are finally through all of the pretenders, we can finally get into the real heavy hitters at the QB position. We start with the man who, before a late season injury, looked set to take over the number two position.

After a very rocky start in 2020 (worse than Justin Fields as a thrower), and an entertaining high risk high reward style in 2021, Jalen Hurts settled into being one of the best QBs in the NFL on the league's best team in 2022.

By reducing his aDoT and throwing easier passes in 2022 (about league average difficulty), Hurts was able to vastly increase his success rate and CPOE. Fewer negative plays means a much higher EPA/Play, and a great season.

I would love to have more to say about Jalen Hurts, but what is there? 70.3 percent true completion is great. 0.213 EPA/Play is great. 2.7 CPOE is great. Jalen Hurts is great. He deserves his new big payday. If he can continue to be this accurate while maintaining his mobility, look for Jalen Hurts to stick in the top five for a long time.

2. Josh Allen: Buffalo Bills

2022 Stats: 0.220 EPA/Play (4th); 0.9 CPOE (14th); 6.99 ANY/A (8th) in 741 plays

The one man left playing fun football.

In a league where the average throw is constantly getting shorter, and expected completion percentages are crawling ever higher, we have Josh Allen and his 65% expected completion percentage to keep us entertained on the weekends.

Recent NFL history has proven that attempting the seventh most difficult throws in the NFL is not a recipe to land yourself in the top ten, but Josh Allen can do it and consistently be in the top five. His success rate of 53% dwarfs anybody else around him in the throw difficulty rankings. The only other QB ranked 20th or better in throw difficulty with a success rate above 50% is Geno Smith and his 50.2. Nobody touches Josh Allen.

We all know the Josh Allen criticisms by now. They're all the same, and they're all still true in 2022. The most prominent is that Josh is more mistake prone than the other elite QBs. Josh's 19 turnovers in 16 games and only 0.9 CPOE both prove this. These bring Josh's EPA/Play on the season well down, or he'd be further above Jalen Hurts than he is.

The positives all remain the same also. Josh can do things nobody else can do with his arm, and he remains the best rushing QB in the NFL. Josh Allen is who he is. If Josh can improve his accuracy back up to where it was in 2020, he can get up to number one. If not, still expect him to stay in the top five for as long as his mobility remains. Considering Josh is only 26, that's basically indefinitely.

Tier 0: Patrick Mahomes

1. Patrick Mahomes: Kansas City Chiefs

2022 Stats: 0.302 EPA/Play (1st); 3.6 CPOE (3rd); 7.93 ANY/A (2nd) in 766 plays

At last, for the first time since 2018, Patrick Mahomes gets to say he's number one again. After spending 2019 in second behind Lamar Jackson, 2020 in third behind Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers, and 2021 in second behind Tom Brady, Mahomes has finally reclaimed the number one spot.

Mahomes was in a league of his own in 2022, which is why he gets his own tier. The gap from Mahomes to second place Josh Allen is (in my estimation) the biggest gap from first to second since Peyton Manning over Philip Rivers in 2013, and the third biggest in the play tracking era (since 1999). Patrick was further ahead of Josh Allen than Josh was ahead of tenth place Justin Herbert (again, in my estimation).

I say all of this because I don't think there's anything to be gained from talking about Mahomes' 2022 performance. We all know how great it was. In a year where almost every top ten QB in the league took a step back, Mahomes didn't. He stepped back up to his 2019 form, improving in every category from 2021, while not substantially changing the difficulty of his throws (again, the best way to know the improvement is real).

I see no way that Mahomes can lose his throne next year. There are no obvious contenders, but as we've seen over the past three years, somebody will most likely step up to have a better season than Patrick in 2023,. Regardless, Mahomes is the most consistent QB in the NFL, and he's liable to stay in the top five for many years to come.

Conclusions

That's it. I've now ranked every QB in the NFL who started at least four games on their 2022 performance. This was a time consuming exercise, but in the end, what have we learned?

I) Perceived AFC dominance

In doing this exercise, I've learned that there isn't much credence to the perceived dominance of the AFC over the NFC in the QB economy. The 12 players in the great starter tier or better are split evenly. Six are in the NFC. Six are in the AFC. In fact, the top 20 is split evenly, with ten top 20 QBs in each conference. Of the QBs leaving teams, the NFC is losing the three best (9th ranked Tom Brady, 13th ranked Jimmy Garoppolo, 14th ranked Aaron Rodgers), but it's also picking up some dark horses that may use up a spot in the top ten (Jacoby Brissett, Derek Carr, Full season Dak Prescott), as well as some intriguing prospects that were already there in 2022, but may step up in 2023 (Sam Darnold, Brock Purdy, Justin Fields). I think the NFC will be fine.

II) Talent

The NFL media and fans have this bad habit of highly ranking players based on 'talent' that they think they see and downgrading others based on things they don't see. For example, I've seen Jimmy Garoppolo described before as 'not a play-maker'. What does that mean? Does it mean he needs to come out here firing with a 9.2 yard aDoT like Josh Allen? Guess what, the 49ers offence doesn't allow a QB to do that. It's not Jimmy's fault.

III) Weak League

A sentiment that I agree with having done this exercise is that the league was very QB weak in 2022. Beyond Lamar Jackson at 18 there was really nobody you'd be comfortable having as your starter going forward, aside from perhaps San Francisco being satisfied with their two shots having both Purdy and Darnold, and even inside that threshold teams were looking to move on from QBs ranked 17th, 16th, 14th, and 13th. That's not even half the teams in the league satisfied with their QB situation. I don't think I've ever seen the NFL this starved before, and with only three first round QBs, those spots are not all going to be filled with young blood. There's going to be some QBs in the 20s and 30s of these rankings that are going to get yet another chance to elicit groans from new fanbases, and I, as a fan of sloppy football, will love it.

Overall, this ranking exercise was fun. I encourage everybody out there to do one of their own, at any position, and see what you can figure out about the league. I promise you'll learn something.