Watch Out for Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold is going to start for the 49ers. He deserves that job. Don't be surprised when he performs.
I'll begin with listing this player's ranks from week 12-18 of the 2022 NFL season in the following categories: Expected Points Added per Play Participated (EPA/Play): 7th; Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE): 1st; Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (ANY/A): 7th.
So who is this mystery man tearing the league apart towards the end of the year? Is it Trevor Lawrence? Daniel Jones? Maybe Dak?
It's Sam Darnold, and he's better than you think.
I know what you're thinking. You're thinking that calling a QB with career negatives in EPA/Play and CPOE and a 5.01 ANY/A better than anybody thinks is ludicrous. Normally I would agree, but Sam appears to finally be showing his 3rd overall pick upside. Let's talk about it.
Coming into week 12 of the 2022 NFL season, the Carolina Panthers were desperate. They were 3-8 and had an offence that ranked 29th in the league in EPA/Play (-0.110) and dead last in EPA/Pass (-0.178). They'd tried both Baker Mayfield and PJ Walker, but both proved untenable. It was looking like nothing except a top five pick was on the horizon, so the Panthers decided to turn to Sam.
The Panthers had traded for Sam's upside from the New York Jets in the 2021 offseason, but after yet another disappointing season in his young career, he had spent the first eight weeks of 2022 as the third option at QB on a pitiful Panthers offence. If he couldn't even start for the Panthers, it was looking like backup duty was all that was in store for the remainder of Sam's NFL career.
Then week 12 came.
Coming off of a miserable week 11 game in which the Panthers could muster only three points against the just okay (14th in EPA/Play allowed) Ravens defence, change was desperately needed, as next week was the much better (9th overall, 4th against the pass) Broncos defence. That change was Sam. The Panthers decided to give him one more chance to showcase what he had. What they had traded for. The starting job would be his for the rest of the season.
The Denver game was an okay, if unexceptional start to 2022 for Sam. Bolstered by 46 run plays, Sam had to throw only 17 passes (excluding spikes and throwaways, as will every attempt figure in this article). He completed 11 and threw for 164 total yards and one touchdown. This performance was good enough to generate 0.29 EPA/Play, although he did not get to touch the ball very often. The Panthers would also win this game.
Sam's NFL comeback was off to a lukewarm start, without much hype, but I think there should've been some recognition for this performance. The Panthers' pass offence had been wretched so far in 2022, and Sam was thrown to the wolves in this game. Denver is good at making QBs look pretty bad, but Sam didn't look bad. He looked perfectly adequate. Additionally, the best defence Sam would have to play in his 2022 comeback was already behind him. It seemed it would get better from here, but you never know. This is Sam Darnold after all.
After a week 13 bye, Sam would come out and prove his doubters correct (for now). Against the 26th (19th against the pass) ranked Seattle Seahawks defence, Sam could only manage 14 completions on 20 true pass attempts for 120 yards and one touchdown. However, Sam again was aided by his incredible rush offence and competent defence. The Panthers would win this game 30-24 despite Sam only generating 0.02 EPA/Play. Despite himself, Sam had gotten the Panthers their first road win of the season.
Things were finally going right in Carolina. They had won two games in a row to move to 5-8, and finally gotten a road win. This had little to do with Sam, although he did little to mess it up either. He was the first Panthers QB all season to go two games in a row without costing his team points, and with the 23rd (25th against the pass) ranked Steelers defence coming up in week 15, Sam was going to get another chance to show out. This one he wouldn't let go to waste.
It's possible we'll look back in the future at this week 15 game against Pittsburgh and see it as the turning point of Sam Darnold's career. In this game, the Panthers rush offence could only muster a putrid -0.55 EPA/Play. Finally faced with his team needing him to win, Sam would put together his best performance yet.
In a game featuring only 112 plays (way below average) due to Pittsburgh's unending rush attack, Sam Darnold would complete 14 of his 19 true pass attempts for 225 yards and a touchdown and generate 0.35 EPA/Play.
This was a very good NFL performance by Sam. The final score was 24-16 in favour of Pittsburgh (both scores were limited by the lack of plays in this game), but this loss was not on him. The Panthers defence that had so stifled Geno Smith the week before was all of a sudden giving up 0.45 EPA/Play to Mitch Trubisky. The rush attack that'd been carrying their offence all season was nowhere in this game. If either or both of these hadn't happened, the Panthers would've won this game, but alas, they did and Sam was 2-1 on the season.
The Panthers were now 5-9, but somehow still had real playoff chances. In fact, they controlled their own destiny to a playoff spot. If they could beat Detroit, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans, the Carolina Panthers would be going to the playoffs as he winners of the NFC South.
We all know how this ends. The Panthers don't end up in the playoffs at the end of the season, but I bring this up to show there was real pressure on Sam. This wasn't a quarterback putting up fake numbers on a team that was hopelessly behind. This was a quarterback taking over a team with real playoff chances if he could turn it around, and would he ever.
Additional context makes the next win, over Detroit, much more impressive. It could easily be looked back on as a quarterback having a glory game against the 31st (30th against the pass) ranked Detroit defence, but I urge you not to view it that way. This was a Detroit team that had won six out of its last seven games, with the only loss being a last second FG to Buffalo, and 100% needed this game to keep their playoff chances alive. This was the hottest team in the league, and they haven’t slowed down since. In my opinion, there was no tougher opponent the Panthers could've drawn, but Sam was up for the challenge.
This game was never competitive. The Panthers were up 24-7 by half and 31-13 by the the 4th. The whole team was buzzing this game. The Panthers rush offence tore the Lions to shreds, and the defence held Detroit's electric offence to 0.13 EPA/Play. For Sam's part, he generated 0.58 EPA/Play in leading his team to a 37-23 win.
In the biggest game of their season, Sam and the Panthers had lived up to the moment. Now 6-9, the Panthers had one more challenge ahead of them. This challenge was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their 11th ranked defence, led by Tom Brady. For all intents and purposes, this was a win and in game for the NFC South championship. This would be the toughest challenge for the Panthers' offence since Denver, and would have the most pressure all season for a team that just one month ago was 3-8 with no quarterback. None of that matters now. It's time for Sam to go to Tampa.
Sam would be hampered this whole game by 24 rush play calls for a rush offence operating at a 24 percent success rate. As it turns out, this game would be the most touches he would get all year. Constantly facing 2nd and 3rd and longs, Sam would nonetheless complete 23 of his 31 true pass attempts and throw for 341 yards, generating 0.26 EPA/Play as a passer this game (I say as a passer because multiple failed QB sneaks drag Sam's personal EPA/Play way down for this game, and I don't think that's fair). Unfortunately, Sam was facing off against the last great game of Tom Brady's NFL career, and was outdone in the 4th quarter, as the Panthers fell to the Buccaneers and fell out of the playoffs.
Although Sam and the Panthers lost this game, I refuse to put this on Sam. He was constantly placed in difficult situations due to the inept play of his teammates in the run game. He was forced to be a one man show against a Tampa defence that specialized in eating one dimensional offences, and he held the Panthers in the game (and by extension, the playoff hunt) all the way to the bitter end. While I will raise my hands and admit he got outdueled in the fourth quarter, this is Tom Brady. If you're setting being outdueled in the fourth by Tom Brady as your barometer of what a good QB is, future Hall of Fame QB Philip Rivers would like to speak with you. This is Sam Darnold we're talking about. He did an exceptional job.
Sam Darnold in 2019 couldn't have done this. Sam Darnold in 2021 couldn't have done this. Sam Darnold in 2022 did.
After an insignificant game against New Orleans, Sam's season was over. The Panthers finished the season 7-10 with no playoffs, but what Sam had done was incredible. He took a team was was 3-8 and went 4-2 and made a playoff run with it. He took an offence that was generating -0.110 EPA/Play (29th) and -0.178 EPA/Pass (32nd) and in his six games with it generated 0.091 EPA/Play (7th) and 0.197 EPA/Pass (3rd). This is a remarkable turnaround.
This gives me Chad Pennington vibes (Click the article below to see how Chad orchestrated a similar turnaround for the 2002 Jets).
Personally, Sam's stats look like this: 0.158 EPA/Play, 7.13 ANY/A, 4.8 CPOE. Recall from above he ranks 7th, 7th, and 1st respectively in these categories over the final six weeks of the year. Albeit, he only touched the ball 181 times. To rectify this, I'll give Sam what I call the Josh McCown test (click here for the reference). I’ll compare his total EPA to other QBs around the league, and see where he places compared to full season QBs, to judge the value he generated.
In 181 plays, Sam generated 28.60 total EPA for his team in 2022. Here is a shortlist of some QBs who did not generate that many in all of 2022: Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Kenny Pickett, Kyler Murray, Mac Jones.
Do you get it? Do you see it?
Now I hear what you may be saying. It was only 181 plays. He's had over 1000 very bad NFL plays in his career. How do we know it's this version of Sam that's going to move forward? It's tough to answer that question, but I will answer in the form of a comparison.
I combed NFL history for a comparable to this Sam Darnold situation: a quarterback with top of the first round draft capital who struggles for at least four years in a row before having a breakout season of half the season or less. In all of my research, I could only find one: Alex Smith.
A first overall pick in 2005, Alex had put up career totals of -0.075 EPA/Play, -2.3 CPOE, and 4.81 ANY/A in a very healthy 2360 play sample going into 2012. In 2012, Alex put up 0.155 EPA/Play, on a 5.2 CPOE and 6.76 ANY/A in 275 plays. After this season, Alex generated a healthy 0.119 EPA/Play on a 0.6 CPOE and 6.52 ANY/A for the next five seasons in Kansas City. He held up. Take from this what you will, but just know that this situation has happened before, and the flash of upside was real.
Based on everything I’ve just told you, I can come to no other conclusion than that Sam Darnold is a starting calibre NFL quarterback. What’s more? Sam is only 25 years old. There were many teams in the NFL that would’ve been helped by his services, but Sam chose the intriguing temporary starting spot for San Francisco.
So, as of April 1, 2023 Sam Darnold is slated to be the week 1 starter for the San Francisco 49ers next year as they wait for the return of Brock Purdy. I have my doubts that he'll reach the heights of the 2022 season again, but there is every indication that Sam can be a quality NFL starter going forward. The NFL world will treat it as a surprise if he performs well in that spot, but don't say you weren't warned.