From the Vault: Week 18 2022; Seahawks vs Rams

The Seahawks are desperate for the playoffs. The Rams are desperate to go out with a win. When they meet, fireworks ensue.

Welcome to From the Vault, a series where I'll detail great games from years past for us to watch to fill our football void for the long offseason. What better place to start than (in my opinion) the most exciting game of 2022?

I hear you. You may be yelling how can this week 18 game between two nondescript teams be the best game of the year? Let me tell you. If you're someone who loves playoff pressure, this one is for you.

Coming into this season having traded Russell Wilson, Seattle was supposed to be in a tank year. They were starting Geno Smith, who was coming into 2022 with a career -0.036 EPA/Play, as their Russell Wilson replacement, and still had one of the worst defences in football. However, it didn't work out that way.

After a shocking 6-3 start, including three wins that aged very well over the Chargers, Giants, and Lions, Seattle was first in the NFC West. Since then, Seattle has been crashing back to reality. They've suffered losses to 8-9 Tampa Bay, 7-10 Carolina, and 6-11 Las Vegas along the way, and have only been able to win twice, once over the moribund Los Angeles Rams, and once over the freefalling New York Jets to end up here, in week 18 with an 8-8 record.

Despite having only two wins since November 13th (it's January 8th), Seattle is still in full control over their playoff destiny. If they win in week 18, they're going to the playoffs. If they lose or tie, the winner of the late game (we know it turns out to be Detroit) will go in their place. This is a playoff game for Seattle, so who is it that's standing in their way?

That team is the aforementioned Los Angeles Rams. Coming off of a Super Bowl championship last year, the Rams have been lost at sea this season. After an okay 3-3 start, the Rams have free fallen to the tune of two wins in ten games in the absence of their starting QB Matthew Stafford.

Despite coming into week 18 5-11, the Rams have no incentive to lose. Why not? They owe their first round pick to the Detroit Lions as payment for the very same Matthew Stafford, so the Rams are coming into Seattle bound and determined to take Seattle's playoff berth away.

Let's talk about those Detroit Lions. They are pivotal in this story for many reasons. The first is that they lost to the Seahawks in a week four thriller, which is the only reason the Seahawks are in this position to be playing for their playoff lives. Also, Detroit has very much been the anti-Seattle in this 2022 season.

Coming into the year where everything was supposed to get better, Detroit instead struggled out of the gate to a 1-6 start. They roared back with six wins out of their next seven games to actually pull ahead of the struggling Seahawks after week 15. However, a crushing loss to the also surging Carolina Panthers (who you can read more about here) has left them in the position of having to pray for a Seattle loss today.

As if the Seahawks needed any more pressure coming into this game, the quality of the last two months of Lions football relative to the last two months of the Seahawks has convinced the football world that the Lions are more worthy of the spot than the Seahawks are. As a result, most of the football world (myself included) are rooting against the Seahawks on the assumption that the Lions will be a better matchup for San Francisco in the first round. In terms of fan opinion, Seattle has gone from bad to the cool new team to completely undeserving in just one season.

Another roller coaster of fan opinion has been for Geno Smith himself. Viewed as not starter quality going into the season, Geno was viewed as an MVP candidate through the first nine weeks. He was eighth in the league in EPA/Play, while leading the league in CPOE (a combination that generally implies a great QB being limited by a weak offence). In the eight weeks since, Geno has regressed. He has slipped to 16th in EPA/Play and 7th in CPOE. Still a good QB being limited by a weak offence, but playing nowhere near as good as he as before.

Fluke is a strong word, but people are already beginning to wonder whether Geno is a one year wonder getting ready for the clock to strike midnight. All this for a man who's lead a fundamentally weak Seattle team into this potential playoff position.

Going into week 18, the Seahawks are a team that nobody wants to see succeed, lead by a QB that nobody believes in. All of this on the eve of the biggest game of their careers. This is their chance to throw the haters off their backs. The playoffs are the playoffs. Once you've made it there, they can't deny you anymore. You're for real.

All the Seahawks need to do to reach the promised land is beat the 5-11 Los Angeles Rams at home.

Here we are. We've finally made it to the actual game. It's January 8, 2023, and it's a cold day in Seattle, but with no wind this is perfectly suitable football weather. The Seahawks are coming into this game as six point favourites, which is a minor miracle considering they're 2-5 over their last seven games.

Spoiler alert: the Seahawks at no point in this game will lead by six points.

The Rams won the coin toss and gave the Seahawks the ball to start the game. Geno Smith and the Seahawks' offence are walking onto the field with a 70 percent chance of winning according to NFLscrapR's Win Probability model. On the first play from scrimmage, Geno drops back, and is intercepted by Jalen Ramsey.

The Rams now get the ball to start both halves, but that matters less in this game than in others. The Rams' offence is, at best, unintimidating. They're led by the (no hyperbole) worst starting QB in the league Baker Mayfield, who ranks last in EPA/Play, last in CPOE, and fourth to last in ANY/A among QBs to start at least four games in 2022. They're 29th in the NFL in EPA/Pass. They do have a slightly better 19th ranked rush offence, but starting with the ball on the Seattle 11, they try two passes and one rush and end up in a fourth and three on the Seattle four.

This is already the first big decision of the game. The numbers say go for this if your offence has at least a 28% success rate in this situation. Does anybody believe the Rams offence has a 28% chance to convert a fourth and three? Sean McVay certainly doesn't. They settle for a field goal. Although the Rams have scored, both teams walk off the field satisfied.

After a lull period with both teams trading field goals and punts, there's 2:49 left in the first half, and the score is 6-6. Seattle's win probability is still 61 percent. The Rams have the ball, but they've done nothing for the whole first half. Facing another third and six, this is looking like another wasted drive for the Rams, but Baker uncorks a 35 yard pass all the way to the Seattle 48 yard line to Van Jefferson. This is the biggest play of the game for the Rams, generating 2.8 EPA all on its own.

After two more incomplete passes, Baker does it again, completing a 17 yard pass to Tyler Higbee. This is less important in terms of points than the Jefferson pass, generating 2 EPA, but more important in terms of win probability. Before this pass, Seattle had a 57% chance to win. Now its 47%. After three rushes the Rams score and it's 13-6 Los Angeles going into the half. Seattle's win probability is only 36%.

This halftime had to have been agonizing for the Seattle Seahawks. After all they've been through this year, all the chances to secure this playoff spot for themselves they haven't been able to convert on, they're sitting in the locker room with a 36 percent chance to beat the Los Angeles Rams. They must've been wondering what went wrong. Had they gotten too big headed? Had they looked past the Rams? Maybe it's something more natural. Had they been ground down by injuries? Things in the NFL happen for a reason, but history doesn't remember the reasons. History remembers the winners. Will these Seahawks be an amazing story of a phoenix rising from the Russell Wilson ashes? Or will they be utterly forgotten like the Saints in the wake of Drew Brees' retirement were the year before? It's all on their shoulders, and it's a heavy weight to bear.

The Seahawks came out in the second half ready to play. They quickly tied the game on their first offensive possession, but then they fell right back into the mud again. After a Rams' field goal to take a 16-13 lead back, the Seahawks' chances sit at an even 50-50. There's 4:13 left in the third quarter, and Geno and the Seahawks are running onto the field for the most important possession of their season.

Another disaster. Geno throws another interception and gives the Rams the ball on their own 41. Two plays later and the ball is on the Seattle 44. Seattle's win probability is back to 35 percent. The Seahawks have shown, outside of one drive, absolutely no ability to even get close to the endzone, so it's up to the defence to step up right now.

The issue with this is, the Seahawks defence hasn't been able to step up all season. They've ranked 26th this season in EPA/Play, in both halves of the season. As soon as the offence stopped being able to carry them, Seattle's season tanked. They've given up 30 points to the likes of Las Vegas and Carolina. Not exactly juggernauts of the game. It's a poetic twist of fate that the defence that hasn't been able to shoulder the load is now left without choice. Either they stop the Rams right now, or Seattle's season is over.

They do it. After three more plays, including a clutch sack, the Rams have to punt the ball away, and the Seahawks are still alive. Unfortunately, the offence again can only muster a three and out. The defence lets the Rams get the ball across midfield on the ensuing drive, but hold again, and the score is still 16-13.

There's 8:47 left. Seattle is running out of chances, but again they can only muster three plays and a punt. Their defence has held up twice in a row now in crucial situations, but asking a 26th ranked defence to hold up three times in a row, even against the Rams, is unsustainable. They can't keep doing this, but this is their only choice. They punt the ball back to the Rams.

At least they would've, if not for a crucial running the kicker penalty on the Rams that gave the Seahawks a fresh set of downs. From here, they'd finally get their offence going. They drive all the way to the Rams' 31. This is easily in range for a game tying field goal, even in Seattle’s thick air. After a six yard pass and a three yard run, it's 3rd and one on the 22. On third and run the Seahawks run stretch to the right. Nothing. Fourth and one. This is an easy choice. Kick the field goal and tie the game right?

This choice to me proves what I said above. Pete Carroll has no faith in his defence to hold three times in a row. They go for it on fourth and one, from the 22, down by three points. The numbers agree with this decision, and they agree in a big way (Fourth Down Decision Calculator (rbsdm.com)), but this decision still took a lot of guts. On the 33% chance that they miss this conversion, the Seahawks' season is essentially over.

They don't miss. Instead of a tied game with 4 minutes left on defence, Seattle is now in a position to potentially score a touchdown. Two plays later, it's first and goal from the two with 2:36 left. All of a sudden, Seattle's win probability is back up to 72 percent. It's now on the Rams' defence to keep this game going.

A first down rush nets only one yard. A second down rush fails, and a third down rush fails. After all that, the Seahawks are forced to kick a game tying field goal. Seattle's win probability is all the way back down to 44 percent, and it's telling that they didn't trust Geno to try even a single pass in this situation. Instead, it's again on the Seattle defence to keep their season alive. The thing they've been trying to avoid the whole time.

The defence may have let the team down all season, but they're earning their money today. The Rams go three and out and Seattle has the ball with 56 seconds on their own twenty with one more chance to win this game and go to the playoffs. They won't let this one go to waste.

On the second play of the drive, Geno would scramble all the way to the LA 45. In addition, an unnecessary roughness penalty would push the ball all the way to the 30. One play and they've already done it. This has been a rocky game, but all that stands between the Seahawks and the playoffs now is Jason Myers' 83 percent chance of making this field goal.

It's never over until it's over.

Lions fans everywhere rejoice as the field goal hits the upright. Seattle isn't going to the playoffs. They're going to overtime.

After a three and out on the first drive of OT, the Seahawks are again relying on their defence to keep their season alive. For one last time, the defence answers the call. They intercept Mayfield's pass, and the Seahawks go onto kick a game winner at 4:38 of OT and punch their playoff ticket.

This game poses a philosophical question to football fans. To all those who claim to love playoff pressure, who love that the playoffs are expanded, who believe that the entertainment level of a game is derived from the stakes, did you love this game? For three hours and seven minutes, the weight of the world was on the shoulders of the Seattle Seahawks. Everything was on the line. This was a playoff game.

I understand that some people will never be willing to admit a game featuring two total touchdowns where neither team scored 20 points was exciting. I have no issue with ignoring them. This game was within one score for all 65:26 of its duration. The probability of one team winning got above 80 percent only during the Seattle drive at the end of the fourth, for about 40 seconds.

For those who enjoy close games with high stakes, this was the ultimate game for you in 2022. This game was also extremely flip floppy, with momentum constantly changing hands. Which team was more likely to win seemed to be changing every drive of the game. This game featured 14 extremely important plays (plays which singlehandedly change win probability by ten percent or more). To put that in perspective, the beloved Chiefs vs Bills playoff game from last year also featured 14 such plays. Most games never get to ten. Look at the win probability graph below. This game was filled to the brim with second half drama.

It is true that most of those Chiefs and Bills plays came on offence while most here were on defence, but that doesn't bother me. I just love to see players playing with everything on the line, and making big plays. This is the one thing in football Patrick Mahomes can do just as well as Quandre Diggs can. It's what I love about football.

If you love fourth quarter drama, this game had it in spades. If you love playoff pressure, this game had it. If you love clutch play, you got to see plenty by both teams. This game won't be mentioned in the annals of NFL history, but it deserves to be remembered as the best game of the season. Go back and watch it over the offseason. I promise you won't regret it.