I know I’m almost a year late to this article, but wanted to share that, as a Pats fan, I left the 2021 season feeling very optimistic about the team’s future. I thought we’d somehow managed to get our perfect fit to keep the success going, but we all know how that turned out. Thanks for giving me a chance to reminisce about some great football!
I do hope Mac can return to these heights one of these days. I know he didn’t exactly light it up in 2024 (although I don’t think he played much worse than Lawrence either), but maybe a move to SF will be a good change for him?
I don't think you understand just how well Mac did last year. I had to watch all those games as the only Jaguars fan in the world who will admit to being one, and in my opinion, Mac played significantly better than Trevor Lawrence last year (CPOE better, sack rate better), and if not for a bit of bad turnover luck, we would be hearing a lot more about how good Mac did in his chance to play some more football.
Let's not mince words though. This 2024 season was a return to his 2022 form. Not necessarily a return to his 2021 form, unfortunately. If he could've played those 315 plays like his 2021 self, he would be starting somewhere next season. Instead, he has to go back up in San Francisco, and who knows if we'll ever see him on the field again? If the NFL were a true, 'best 32 QBs are the ones that will start' meritocracy, I still think Mac could sneak in somewhere between 27-32, but we all know it isn't, so Mac will have to bide his time on the bench for a while.
As far as the 2021 Patriots go, people look back on this season oddly, and in my opinion incorrectly. Nobody seems to remember just how good this team was, and the impact they had on shaping the Bill Belichick narrative. Because of how everything went in the years ahead, the memory seems to be that Tom Brady left and everything died in New England. This article proves that hypothesis incorrect, and in fact I still stand behind my opinion that letting Tom Brady go was the right move. It wouldn't have gotten better in New England the way it did in Tampa.
As you say, this article is a bit old, so comparing Mac Jones' potential to CJ Stroud's potential, and presenting that as if it's a compliment, has not aged well, but he had everything it took as a rookie to go on and be very successful in the NFL. It's almost never that a rookie comes into the NFL as one of it's top 15 QBs. Everybody (including myself, if he can quit getting sacked so much, because the arm is there) is excited about Drake Maye, and Drake in 2024 was not even close to what Mac Jones was as a rookie.
Even today, in 2025, it's still possible to construe Mac Jones as the best QB in that 2021 draft class. It depends what you think of Justin Fields, and whether or not Trevor Lawrence can ever stay on the field. This is a damning indictment of the draft class in general, but it's also a statement on how good Mac Jones is, even when he's far less than his best. He played better football than Trevor Lawrence on the same team this past year, and he's played better football than Justin Fields for basically all his career, if perhaps not currently. It depends what you think of Justin's 250 Pittsburgh plays, and how meaningful they are.
Thanks for going back through the archives buddy. It gives me a chance to revisit my old stuff as well. I like diving back into the stories I've published articles on. My apologies that I've generally not been the kindest to the Patriots in the past LOL, but this one had a lot of positivity in it, and I'm happy about that.
I’ll admit, I did just glance at EPA/play when saying he wasn’t much better, so I’m glad to hear he did better than I thought! Mac does strike me as the kind of player who could float around the league for a while, so maybe one day he will get his chance again?
I 100% agree with you on the decision to let Tom go. I just do not think New England had the same offensive tools as Tampa and, as you point out here, the defense definitely looked a lot worse than in 2019. Still, it’s unfortunate how this ended up impacting most people’s perspective on the two—imagine going back to 2014 and telling someone what Belichick’s and Brady’s respective legacies look like a decade on down.
I actually really appreciate your perspective on the Pats, especially reading through recently your series on Brady’s playoff success. Sometimes when you’re surrounded by Patriots fans it can be hard to take a step back and objectively evaluate these things, so it’s nice to see a more holistic, less emotional approach.
Mac Jones is a bit of an odd player. His play style is and always has been driven by his ability to avoid getting sacked. However, for a player who has the potential to make a living based strictly on his ability to avoid negative plays, he sure does turn the ball over a lot. This is a really weird combination of traits. Not one you find very often. I say his 3.1 INT% in 2024 was indicative of bad turnover luck, and if he could get his Int%+ back up to 95, where it was in 2021, he could be a usable player. He's got the feet for it. The arm comes and goes.
Let's just say if he goes in for a five game stretch somewhere some season, and he leads that team to a 4-1 record with unimpressive football reference stats, but very impressive advanced ones, that would not shock me at all. Something like less than 200 passing yards per game, but a pretty good EPA/Play figure. This is all if he gets a good stretch of turnover luck though, because a 0 CPOE, 115 sk%+ guy can work at the NFL level. You're never going to be a top guy that way, but Joe Flacco made a career out of it.
However, it can't work if there are a lot of turnovers involved. That's what Mac needs to work on, but if he can get his INT rate above average (not great, just above average) he will get his chance again somewhere. The first round draft pick QB status lives forever, no matter how much people on TV say it doesn't, and it will help him out in this regard. Even if he has to wait until 30 like Geno Smith did, it will come eventually, on the condition he can make that subtle improvement that I suggested.
As far as the Patriots go, I think my stance has been made clear at this point that I believe the 2000s teams were mostly (meaning of course not 2007) lucky, but that the 2010s teams are the best decade in football history, honestly without even very much competition. Either side of that paradigm being true does not negate the other, no matter how much people say it does, and the humiliation at home against New York in 2010 provides a great delineation between the two eras, in my opinion. Everything changed after that, and the AFC was the Patriots' to lose every year from then until Tom left. I'll remain bitter about 2017 forever, but what makes it special to us Jaguars fans is that it's THE PATRIOTS that we should've beaten. Without them, the story wouldn't be nearly as good.
You are right that almost nobody even tries to evaluate the Patriots objectively, just like barely anybody even tries to look at the KC Chiefs now in an objective manner. I've got an article coming out soon on the legendary 2003-2004 win streak, and just how much had to break New England's way to make that go the way it did. That's a period that absolutely nobody looks back at in an objective way, and I've got some stuff I want to say about it.
It's interesting to me that the Patriots come up so often on this publication, yet they really only come up as the antagonists in other people's stories. I believe I wrote about them as their own protagonists talking about 2007, and here talking about Mac Jones, and that's all. Tom Brady playoffs kind of counts, but it's hard to present anybody as a protagonist in what is essentially a list article.
In my opinion, in a narrative sense, the Patriots often work best when presented as the big bad wolf. They're everywhere, all over most things that I write, but they get shockingly little attention individually. At least not from me.
I know I’m almost a year late to this article, but wanted to share that, as a Pats fan, I left the 2021 season feeling very optimistic about the team’s future. I thought we’d somehow managed to get our perfect fit to keep the success going, but we all know how that turned out. Thanks for giving me a chance to reminisce about some great football!
I do hope Mac can return to these heights one of these days. I know he didn’t exactly light it up in 2024 (although I don’t think he played much worse than Lawrence either), but maybe a move to SF will be a good change for him?
I don't think you understand just how well Mac did last year. I had to watch all those games as the only Jaguars fan in the world who will admit to being one, and in my opinion, Mac played significantly better than Trevor Lawrence last year (CPOE better, sack rate better), and if not for a bit of bad turnover luck, we would be hearing a lot more about how good Mac did in his chance to play some more football.
Let's not mince words though. This 2024 season was a return to his 2022 form. Not necessarily a return to his 2021 form, unfortunately. If he could've played those 315 plays like his 2021 self, he would be starting somewhere next season. Instead, he has to go back up in San Francisco, and who knows if we'll ever see him on the field again? If the NFL were a true, 'best 32 QBs are the ones that will start' meritocracy, I still think Mac could sneak in somewhere between 27-32, but we all know it isn't, so Mac will have to bide his time on the bench for a while.
As far as the 2021 Patriots go, people look back on this season oddly, and in my opinion incorrectly. Nobody seems to remember just how good this team was, and the impact they had on shaping the Bill Belichick narrative. Because of how everything went in the years ahead, the memory seems to be that Tom Brady left and everything died in New England. This article proves that hypothesis incorrect, and in fact I still stand behind my opinion that letting Tom Brady go was the right move. It wouldn't have gotten better in New England the way it did in Tampa.
As you say, this article is a bit old, so comparing Mac Jones' potential to CJ Stroud's potential, and presenting that as if it's a compliment, has not aged well, but he had everything it took as a rookie to go on and be very successful in the NFL. It's almost never that a rookie comes into the NFL as one of it's top 15 QBs. Everybody (including myself, if he can quit getting sacked so much, because the arm is there) is excited about Drake Maye, and Drake in 2024 was not even close to what Mac Jones was as a rookie.
Even today, in 2025, it's still possible to construe Mac Jones as the best QB in that 2021 draft class. It depends what you think of Justin Fields, and whether or not Trevor Lawrence can ever stay on the field. This is a damning indictment of the draft class in general, but it's also a statement on how good Mac Jones is, even when he's far less than his best. He played better football than Trevor Lawrence on the same team this past year, and he's played better football than Justin Fields for basically all his career, if perhaps not currently. It depends what you think of Justin's 250 Pittsburgh plays, and how meaningful they are.
Thanks for going back through the archives buddy. It gives me a chance to revisit my old stuff as well. I like diving back into the stories I've published articles on. My apologies that I've generally not been the kindest to the Patriots in the past LOL, but this one had a lot of positivity in it, and I'm happy about that.
I’ll admit, I did just glance at EPA/play when saying he wasn’t much better, so I’m glad to hear he did better than I thought! Mac does strike me as the kind of player who could float around the league for a while, so maybe one day he will get his chance again?
I 100% agree with you on the decision to let Tom go. I just do not think New England had the same offensive tools as Tampa and, as you point out here, the defense definitely looked a lot worse than in 2019. Still, it’s unfortunate how this ended up impacting most people’s perspective on the two—imagine going back to 2014 and telling someone what Belichick’s and Brady’s respective legacies look like a decade on down.
I actually really appreciate your perspective on the Pats, especially reading through recently your series on Brady’s playoff success. Sometimes when you’re surrounded by Patriots fans it can be hard to take a step back and objectively evaluate these things, so it’s nice to see a more holistic, less emotional approach.
Mac Jones is a bit of an odd player. His play style is and always has been driven by his ability to avoid getting sacked. However, for a player who has the potential to make a living based strictly on his ability to avoid negative plays, he sure does turn the ball over a lot. This is a really weird combination of traits. Not one you find very often. I say his 3.1 INT% in 2024 was indicative of bad turnover luck, and if he could get his Int%+ back up to 95, where it was in 2021, he could be a usable player. He's got the feet for it. The arm comes and goes.
Let's just say if he goes in for a five game stretch somewhere some season, and he leads that team to a 4-1 record with unimpressive football reference stats, but very impressive advanced ones, that would not shock me at all. Something like less than 200 passing yards per game, but a pretty good EPA/Play figure. This is all if he gets a good stretch of turnover luck though, because a 0 CPOE, 115 sk%+ guy can work at the NFL level. You're never going to be a top guy that way, but Joe Flacco made a career out of it.
However, it can't work if there are a lot of turnovers involved. That's what Mac needs to work on, but if he can get his INT rate above average (not great, just above average) he will get his chance again somewhere. The first round draft pick QB status lives forever, no matter how much people on TV say it doesn't, and it will help him out in this regard. Even if he has to wait until 30 like Geno Smith did, it will come eventually, on the condition he can make that subtle improvement that I suggested.
As far as the Patriots go, I think my stance has been made clear at this point that I believe the 2000s teams were mostly (meaning of course not 2007) lucky, but that the 2010s teams are the best decade in football history, honestly without even very much competition. Either side of that paradigm being true does not negate the other, no matter how much people say it does, and the humiliation at home against New York in 2010 provides a great delineation between the two eras, in my opinion. Everything changed after that, and the AFC was the Patriots' to lose every year from then until Tom left. I'll remain bitter about 2017 forever, but what makes it special to us Jaguars fans is that it's THE PATRIOTS that we should've beaten. Without them, the story wouldn't be nearly as good.
You are right that almost nobody even tries to evaluate the Patriots objectively, just like barely anybody even tries to look at the KC Chiefs now in an objective manner. I've got an article coming out soon on the legendary 2003-2004 win streak, and just how much had to break New England's way to make that go the way it did. That's a period that absolutely nobody looks back at in an objective way, and I've got some stuff I want to say about it.
It's interesting to me that the Patriots come up so often on this publication, yet they really only come up as the antagonists in other people's stories. I believe I wrote about them as their own protagonists talking about 2007, and here talking about Mac Jones, and that's all. Tom Brady playoffs kind of counts, but it's hard to present anybody as a protagonist in what is essentially a list article.
In my opinion, in a narrative sense, the Patriots often work best when presented as the big bad wolf. They're everywhere, all over most things that I write, but they get shockingly little attention individually. At least not from me.