His Year: Michael Vick 2010

From rock bottom to backup to the top of the world. Let me detail Michael Vick's 2010 salvation.

Oh boy. This is awkward.

It's April of 2010, and the Philadelphia Eagles have three starting QBs on the roster.

First comes the incumbent, Donovan McNabb. Donovan has done great things for Philadelphia in his 11 years there, including five NFC Championship game appearances and one Super Bowl appearance, but never have the Eagles been able to win the big dance in the McNabb era. It’s not all his fault, as the Eagles have only been able to put out two teams (2002 and 2008) with as many as 11 expected wins, but Philadelphia fans (and management) are not exactly known for their calculated realism. They're getting sick of the McNabb era.

The second QB in this mix is Kevin Kolb. A second round draft pick all the way back in 2007, the Eagles have long been convinced that Kevin would eventually succeed Donovan and lead them into a new era. They (and the fans) are especially entranced by two 2009 starts made in place of an injured McNabb. Negative EPA against the eventual Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints was nothing to write home about, but 0.49 EPA/Play against the lowly Kansas City Chiefs got everybody buzzing. They want Kevin Kolb for 2010.

The third cog in this wheel is Michael Vick.

Vick has come through a lot to be the third string QB in Philadelphia. The man who was once the franchise icon for the Atlanta Falcons has spent the last three years embroiled in a major dogfighting scandal that landed him in prison for an unreasonable 23 months (the charge is normally 12).

Instead of playing his exciting (if mostly ineffective) brand of football on Sundays, he's reduced to watching the Falcons, his Falcons, select QB Matt Ryan in the 2008 NFL Draft on a television in prison. He was not notified beforehand. No effort was made to let him down easy. He immediately realises that he's been fired on worldwide television.

Vick has never spoken in an interview (as far as I could find) about Matt Ryan, but it had to be torture watching him go out and immediately have a better season than Vick ever had for the Falcons, in just his rookie year.

It all hits rock bottom for Vick in FPC (Federal Prison Camp) Leavenworth. His girlfriend and daughters cry after visits, prison fights threaten to break out at all hours, he's refused permission to attend his grandmother's funeral, and eventually the man who was once the NFL's highest paid player is forced to file for federal bankruptcy protection.

All throughout this process, Mike knows he's being made an example of. There is no specific human who wants to make an example of Michael Vick, but black men with money and status historically have never been treated very well by the United States. Mike and everybody else (notably including the NAACP, who repeatedly make as big of a scene as they can about this) know that a 23 month sentence for dogfighting is ludicrous, and well above what anybody not named Michael Vick would've gotten for the exact same offence.

This situation very easily could have broken a human's resolve. Perhaps a conspiracy theorist might say that was the point of the extended sentence. It would have broken a lesser man, but in FPC Leavenworth, Michael Vick proved his mettle to himself, and to all of us fans.

For risk of potential bad comments I would like to say for the record that I do not condone Vick's activities. I think what he did was despicable. I would go so far as to describe it as morally abhorrent, but I'm going to go on record as the only person in the history of the internet to honestly say that I feel bad for Michael Vick.

To understand my perspective you must understand what the law is. It is not a moral code. It is not a code of ethics. The law (in any country) is a set of activities that a country wishes to discourage on its land, and that's all. They (the government in question) create trades as a disincentive to do certain actions. For example, in my country (Canada), you must trade 25 years of your life for the privilege of committing first degree murder. This is a trade the justice system deems fair.

The issue comes when one of the parties changes the deal after the decision has already been made. For instance, (in Canada again) the typical penalty for a first offence shoplifter is a small fine and probation. If you decide to shoplift, that's the trade you believe you're making, but what if, for reasons that are not stated, the sentence handed down on you was instead the maximum allowable $2000 fine and six months in jail?

How would you feel about that?

Probably pretty pissed off.

Whatever feeling I just brought up in you, that's exactly how Michael Vick felt. He was engaging in a criminal dogfighting ring, knowing that it carried approximately one year in federal prison if caught. That's the trade he implicitly agreed to make. Only once Vick was caught did the government change the deal on him and give him 23 months in prison.

It's not a black and white world out there everybody. There can be more than one injustice happening at a time. Michael Vick was both wrong and wronged in relation to his dogfighting. Eventually, he would come to accept this. He would realise that while the length of his sentence was bogus, he still needed to learn from his mistakes. This is where we turn our focus back to football.

It has to be said that the Atlanta Falcons version of Michael Vick is one of the most overrated players in the history of the NFL. He could do fantastic things, but when it came down to it, the numbers just weren't there. Coming into the 2010 season, Vick has never thrown for 3000 yards in a season. He's never had a positive CPOE. He's managed a positive EPA/Play just twice (2002 and 2005), and in my retrospective QB tier lists, he's been a top ten QB just once (2002).

For the record, I'm fully aware that Michael Vick finished second in MVP voting in 2004. I'm also aware that MVP voters have absolutely no idea what they're doing, as Vick generated zero EPA/Play that year, got sacked a whopping 46 times, and missed nearly two full games (one to injury, one to week 17 rest for the playoffs). All of this adds up to finishing a thoroughly uninspiring 21st on my 2004 QB tier list, making Michael Vick’s 2004 perhaps the most overrated single season any player has ever had.

I think because of the astonishing highlight reels and the electricity of playing with Vick in a Madden video game (back when those used to be tolerable) that people remember him as a good QB. He wasn't. He generated 0.02 EPA/Play over his four full seasons as a Falcon (oh yeah, he also only played four full seasons as a Falcon). His spots on my QB tier lists (for whatever those are worth) in these four years are (in order): 9, 21, 21, 14.

Over the last four years, here are the players occupying those positions: Ryan Tannehill (9th, 2019); Ryan Fitzpatrick (21st, 2020); Taylor Heinicke (21st, 2021); Aaron Rodgers (14th, 2022).

This is not exactly franchise icon material. When the best year of your career lands you Ryan Tannehill as a statistical comparison, and the 35+ year old versions of Fitz and A-Rod make appearances, you are clearly not all you're cracked up to be.

Side note: How about Ryan Fitzpatrick on the 2020 Miami Dolphins as the statistical comparison generated for Vick's second place MVP finish in 2004? It's simultaneously humourous and damning.

You may be asking yourself: how could a player with such immense physical talents end up being such a bad player? As it turns out, Vick frequently asked this of himself too, and in FPC Leavenworth, he finally found the answer.

Effort.

It's been widely acknowledged that the Atlanta version of Michael Vick was operating at 90 percent capacity (knowing what I now know, I think it's much less than that) due to his refusal to put in effort off the field. Vick himself in modern interviews has brought up being the "last guy in, first guy out" of the building everyday.

His refusal to watch tape and generate a deeper understanding of the game manifested in an inability to understand pressures. This generated a counterintuitive result. Generally, a big plus in favour of having a mobile QB is the ability to avoid sacks, and consequently take less negative plays than a less mobile QB would. The Falcons did not get this benefit, as Atlanta Vick was actually one of the least elusive QBs in NFL history. Over his Atlanta career, Vick was sacked on an astounding 9.8 percent of all drop backs. One out of every ten Falcon pass plays was doomed to end in a sack. Sacks are 40 percent as bad as turnovers. That adds up quickly.

When you look at the modern version of Michael Vick, Josh Allen, you can see that he gets sacked on a mere 5.2 percent of his drop backs. This is very low, and what a player of this mobility level should be able to do. This is because Allen can see the pressure coming and actually use his mobility to avoid the sack, which Vick could never do in Atlanta.

Now having taken two years out of the game, Mike can finally recognize this problem, and begin addressing it. For the rest of Vick's NFL career, off the field effort will no longer be an issue.

With that lengthy detour behind us, we're back to the awkwardness in April of 2010. We now understand why an NFL icon like Michael Vick is the third string option behind fellow established QB Donovan McNabb and even the unproven Kevin Kolb.

Adding more awkwardness to this awkwardness is the fact that all three QBs are UFAs after this season. The Eagles had run this same three QB gambit through the 2009 season, but nobody was an impending free agent. There wasn't the same level of awkwardness as this go around. Given QB salaries (even in 2010), it's going to be impossible to sign more than one of these players after the year is over.

It becomes apparent quickly that the Eagles are not going to keep all three players for the 2010 season. One of them is getting traded. This is not pleasant for any of the parties involved. All of them know that one of them is leaving.

The Falcons had been trying to trade Vick for two solid years while he was behind bars, and couldn't find a team that would touch him, so despite being the third string option, his job is the safest. Kevin Kolb is the 26 year old option that Eagles fans had been hyping up for years. I feel like if the Eagles are to trade him in order to keep at it with Donovan McNabb, there may be a mutiny in Philadelphia. That leaves just one option.

With Donovan gone (traded for a 2nd and a 3rd), a great deal of the awkwardness is now alleviated, although not all of it. I have yet to hear an adage about having three starter level QBs on the same team, but we all know the old saying: if you have two QBs you don't have one.

Going into the preseason, Kolb is the undisputed starter, but there is still some trepidation here. Having a three time Pro Bowl (we understand now that Mike didn't deserve two of them, but the point is still valid) player sitting behind a totally unproven rookie is bound to cause some consternation, and it does.

In fact, it causes so much consternation that the Eagles elect to start two QBs in the first game of the 2010 season.

The very first play of the very first game of the season, at home against the eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers, sees Michael Vick on the field lined up wide as a decoy for a potential trick play. Nothing comes of it. It's just a screen pass, but it's interesting that the season has now started, and this awkwardness is still not behind us.

Make no mistake. Kolb is in at QB, but after the first series goes three and out, that changes. On the second series, Vick gets three touches (all runs), compared to Kolb's two (both incompletions, one of which he threw directly to a Packers defender, who thankfully dropped the ball) en route to a field goal. Not too much to read into this, but what's interesting is that Vick got two touches on first down, and one on third (the important downs). Kolb got both of his touches on the less important second down. Just something to think about.

As the Packers tie the game at three coming into the second quarter, the next Philadelphia series is all Kolb, with Vick getting just one touch (conveniently, on another third down). At this point in the game, it's becoming awkward even for the casuals. Joe Buck and Troy Aikman in the booth keep trying to bring up and showcase the new starter, and the Eagles keep pre-empting them by forcing them to stop talking about Kolb to announce that he's been pulled from the game again.

None of this is helped by the fact that on Kolb's very next touch, he gets sacked. On the touch after that, he throws an interception (overturned by video review) on a horrible decision into double coverage. This of course leads to a punt, but the Philadelphia defence is holding Aaron Rodgers in check. The Eagles get the ball back still tied at three, but Kolb fails again. This time the Eagles fall behind 10-3.

By the time we get to the half, the score is 13-3 for the Packers, and Kevin Kolb has turned his 14 touches into five completions, six incompletions (three of which could have easily been interceptions), and three sacks. The Eagles' pass game is in the negative yards for the first half. The same Philadelphia crowd who booed when Vick came into the game earlier now boo as the offence runs off the field for the half.

This Packer defence is good. It will go on to rank second in 2010, but this level of production out of the Eagle offence is unacceptable.

It will later come out that Kolb had been playing with a concussion for most of the second quarter. This excuses his performance a little bit, but what doesn't excuse Kolb is when Vick takes just three plays into the third quarter to get all the way to the Green Bay 38, a place Kevin Kolb was never able to get to. This drive ends with a fumble on a completed pass, but the offence is finally looking up for the Eagles.

The problem is that, upon another Packer touchdown, Philadelphia is now staring down a 20-3 deficit to the eventual Super Bowl champions at 8:36 of the third quarter. Their estimated Win Probability (according to NFLFastR's Win Probability model) is down to five percent, meaning this game is now all but over, but an immediate Eagle touchdown in response, including two clutch third down passes from Vick, helps this situation a little bit, cutting the deficit to ten.

However, not even two minutes later, the deficit is back to 17. Aaron Rodgers has just thrown a 32 yard touchdown pass to give Green Bay a 27-10 lead. It would now officially require a miracle for the Eagles to win, with their Win Probability (WP) having dropped to three percent, now at 1:48 of the third, and a three and out on the next drive does nothing to help.

Thankfully, the defence finally finds a stop, and Vick gets the ball back still down 17. Facing the third best pass defence in football, armed with the knowledge that every down has to be a throw from here, is a daunting challenge. It's not a challenge that the Atlanta Falcons version of Mike Vick would've been up to. This is where he shows the world that he's a different player, and a different man.

He's up to this challenge.

Vick makes the next drive look easy. Philadelphia sees just one third down on the way to first and goal at the GB nine yard line, but a Vick sack moves the ball to third and goal all the way back at the 17. No matter. Vick finds a wide open Jeremy Maclin in the end zone to reduce the deficit to 27-17.

Another Rodgers interception gives Vick the ball back at 9:14, and he again gets straight down the field, to the GB five yard line. Unfortunately, he can get no further, and the Eagles have to settle for three. It's now a one possession game, but not in the way everybody wanted.

Philadelphia does get the ball back with a chance to tie the game, but they just can't do it. Backup QBs can only play like Superman for so long, and as Vick fails his QB sneak attempt on fourth and one at the two minute mark the Eagles lose, but boy did he give the Super Bowl champions a scare.

One look at the QB stats from this game (courtesy of RBDSM.com) tells you exactly who the star of this show was.

For reference, green means above average. White means average, and purple means below average. As deep of purple as Kevin Kolb has means this is of the worst QB performances ever. His -0.66 EPA/Play ranks in just the second percentile of all QB games played in the play tracking era, meaning only two percent (or one in fifty) of all QB games are equal or worse than this one.

Look how vibrant the shade of green for Vick's total EPA is. Recall that he only played two quarters, and that starts to look mightily impressive. You can visually see that he handily outdueled Aaron Rodgers in all stats that matter (aDoT stands for average depth of target. It's not a results measure). He also got the Eagles into position to attempt a game tying drive. The comeback fell just short, but by the time Vick really got going the Eagles were down 17 points. He won his game.

Keep in perspective as you look at those numbers that this is Vick's first substantive playing time since December 31, 2006. It's currently September 12, 2010. That's a few months short of four years folks, and in his very first game back, he outplayed Aaron Rodgers. This is the same Aaron Rodgers that will finish the season ranked third in EPA/Play. Short of the AFC's big three (Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning), there is no tougher opponent Vick could've faced for his first game back.

This moment was clearly too big for Kevin Kolb. It was just right for Michael Vick.

With Kolb still out nursing his concussion, Vick gets to start in week two in Detroit. He plays great again, generating 0.23 EPA/Play against a surprisingly good (13th ranked) 2010 Lions defence en route to a blowout (The score ends up 35-32 on account of two Detroit garbage time touchdowns) to get the Eagles their first win of the year.

Everything seems to be coming up Michael Vick.

There's just one problem. The starting QB is still Kevin Kolb. This is reiterated by coach Andy Reid when he announces that Kolb will start in week three against Jacksonville.

We're back to the awkwardness.

How can Andy Reid allow Vick to come off the bench, outplay Aaron Rodgers, and then put him back on the bench? That doesn't seem the most conducive to the Eagles' success. This is one of the best coaches in the world. Maybe the best. Normally you don’t see Andy Reid make galling decisions like this, and it’s only Andy Reid’s status that makes what he does next possible.

The very next day, something makes him come to his senses. It's normally impossible to put the genie back in the bottle. Once the new guy is in, you can't take him out, but when you’re Andy Reid, you can break the rules a little bit. I'm not sure what Reid could've seen in just one day that would cause him to change his mind, but nevertheless, he reverses course, and announces that Vick will be the Eagles' starter going forward.

The Philadelphia faithful are outraged by this. They've been building up Kevin Kolb in their heads for the last three years, and they want to see him. They parrot talking points such as "the young Eagles (with 22 year old LeSean McCoy, 23 year old DeSean Jackson, 22 year old Jeremy Maclin, and 25 year old Brent Celek) need a young quarterback." This point, intentionally or otherwise, ignores the fact that Kevin Kolb (26) is not even four years younger than Michael Vick (30). In QB years, that's not very long. A 30 year old QB has the potential to be the starter for five more years at least.

For reference, did you know that Derek Carr is actually older than Jimmy Garoppolo? Did you know that they're both older right now than Vick was in 2010? It's okay to be on the wrong side of 30 if you play QB, and teams tend not to mind getting older if they're getting better.

Another talking point people brought up is that "Kolb shouldn't be punished for two bad quarters against such a great defence." I actually agree with this. Throwing Kolb to the wolves in week one was a very bad idea, but this understates just how badly he played. The difference in the two QBs running the same offence against the same defence was simply staggering. One outplayed Aaron Rodgers. The other was having one of the worst performances of any QB in the whole 2010 season.

The third point people bring up is how Vick's follow up performance against Detroit shouldn't be taken too seriously because it was against Detroit. The same Lions who'd had the NFL's worst defence in 2008 and ranked 30th in 2009. This point is a more acceptable miss than the first two. It would've been tough to know in week two of the season that this is the year Detroit is going to return to respectability, but with hindsight we do know that Detroit's defence is going to rank 13th in 2010, meaning that Vick's 0.23 EPA/Play against them is quite impressive.

Perhaps knowing that all of these above talking points have no substance, or perhaps just watching practice and continuing to see that Kolb isn't ready, Andy Reid sticks to his guns, and Vick indeed starts in Jacksonville. He rewards his coach by generating 0.40 EPA/Play, albeit against a very bad Jaguar defence, in the Eagles' second blowout win in a row.

Now 2-1, the Eagles are feeling very confident going into a week four matchup at home against Washington. This brings Donovan McNabb back to Philadelphia, where he'll be greeted with a very fitting Philadelphia greeting, both cheers and boos in roughly equal measure. As far as our man goes, Mike plays okay in the first quarter. The Eagles fall behind 14-3 on his watch before yet again we're confronted with awkwardness.

Near the end of the first quarter, at the end of a 30 yard run (called back by a holding penalty), Vick takes a big hit from two Redskins players at once. This results in a rib cartilage injury, and keeps him out for (at least) the rest of the game.

It will be Kolb vs McNabb after all.

It does not go very well for the Eagles. Kevin does manage to generate positive EPA/Play this time, but his 5.5 yard aDoT means there were no chunk plays at all, which makes it extremely hard to move the ball down the field. In his three quarters off the bench, Kolb played acceptable, but acceptable is all you can say about it. 0.07 EPA/Play is above zero, but not by much.

This performance actually begins to get people on Vick's side a little bit, but this hype falters when they learn that he's going to miss the next three games. Now sitting at 2-2, the Eagles are going to need to win two of these three games to keep their playoff chances intact. If they do win those two games, we're going to be looking at QB controversy yet again.

What do you think happens?

This is Michael Vick's Year. There's always going to be QB controversy.

In week five, Kolb generates 0.11 EPA/Play against a good but not great (12th) San Francisco defence and doesn't mess it up as San Francisco beats themselves (with three crucial lost fumbles) 27-24. Again, this is merely acceptable, and without the 49ers' offensive mistakes, this easily could've been a loss. This is okay for Vick. If Kevin keeps playing this way, there'll be a starting spot waiting for Mike when he comes back.

What is very scary is what Kolb does in week six against Atlanta. He goes out there and plays the best game he'll ever play in his NFL career. He makes a top ten defence look like chumps as he generates 0.45 EPA/Play and blows out the Atlanta Falcons.

This is a Falcons team that will finish 13-3 in 2010. This is just their second loss of the season, and it's a blowout 31-17 loss, and even that 14 point difference underestimates how wide the gap between these two teams was. Kevin Kolb did this. He did not play acceptably. He played great against great opposition. He outdid Matt Ryan (who isn't yet as good as he will become, but he's getting there), and he outdid the Atlanta Falcons.

Needless to say, this gets the Kolb hype train right back into gear. The 2-2 knife's edge Eagles have become the 4-2 division leading Eagles under Kevin’s watch. The San Francisco win had almost nothing to do with him, but that's already been forgotten under the spectre of the career defining Atlanta win. Again, the Eagles fans are not well known for their balanced and thoughtful decision making. What have you done for me lately?

They want Kevin Kolb.

In week seven, Kevin Kolb is exactly what they get. One week after tearing apart Atlanta's top ten defence, Kevin is made to look a fool by the 22nd ranked unit of the Tennessee Titans. Kevin throws two interceptions, and loses a fumble in generating -0.27 EPA/Play as the Eagles lose a winnable game in Nashville to fall to 4-3, now one game behind the 5-2 Giants. Over the week eight bye, Eagles' brass have a lot to talk about.

Kolb, or Vick?

Vick, in his 134 touches so far, has generated 0.283 EPA/Play, good for second in the NFL, and his impressive 3.5 CPOE so far lets me know that production is real. It's not a product of limited playing time. Kolb has generated zero EPA/Play in 179 touches, but if you exclude the horror show in week one, this becomes 0.078 EPA/Play on 164 touches, with a CPOE of 3.6. That's higher than Vick's.

This is to say that despite Vick's superior results, this is not an easy decision. Vick has spent his career so far on a lot of okay seasons on an okay 2000s Falcons team. As an NFL QB, a track record of being okay is one of the worst things you can have. Kolb has not really had a career so far, but at least he doesn't have a track record of being okay like Vick does.

If Kevin could cut down on his turnovers (four interceptions and two lost fumbles in four full games, compared to no turnovers for Vick in his approximately three game sample), he'd be right up there with Mike in the results department.

It's extremely hard to choose between two QBs when their CPOEs are approximately the same. One is turnover prone, while the other is not, but that will fall away from Kolb's game if he can maintain the 3.6 CPOE. You can't be that accurate and also maintain that many turnovers.

Doing this micro analysis tells me that whoever the eventual starter is, their position is still going to be tenuous. Both players have already earned themselves a good contract in the offseason. The only thing left to fight over is who gets their contract with the stacked Eagles offence. Prior to week nine against the Indianapolis Colts, Andy Reid gives his opinion on who should stay.

The starter for week nine against the Colts will be Michael Vick. It's a little late, being week nine already, but at last.

Welcome to Michael Vick's Year.

Having your first game back as a starter come against Peyton Manning is not a situation I would wish on anybody, but considering Vick had to wait almost four years to come back and outdo Aaron Rodgers, I'm sure four weeks will be okay.

This game starts out great for the Eagles, whose first three touches result in: a three play touchdown, a three play field goal, and a long drive that ends with a field goal. At 2:15 of the first, we're up 13-0 and have taken the Colts by total surprise. This isn't to say there weren't missed opportunities (both field goals came from inside the ten, and one was a prime candidate to go for it), but it's a great start for us.

The excitement is dampened somewhat by the Colts overcoming a holding penalty to score a touchdown and narrow the lead to six, but we respond with another field goal drive, this one featuring two clutch third and long conversions from Vick, to reach a two score lead again.

From here, nothing goes right. Indy overcomes what should've been a backbreaking penalty (this time OPI) for the second drive in a row en route to another touchdown, and after a three and out in the two minute drill with a crushing Vick sack, the Colts find another field goal.

Despite controlling nearly the entire half, our Eagles are going into half losing 17-16.

This is a big game. Remember that we're just 4-3 currently. A loss here will drop us to 4-4, two games behind the now 6-2 New York Giants. We have not played the Giants yet, so even a two game deficit isn't insurmountable, but it's certainly not preferable. This is especially the case because our WP was over 75 percent for almost all of the first half, but now we into the second half with an exact 50/50 split again.

Things like this tend to happen to teams playing Peyton Manning. Their leads mysteriously evaporate before they even realize what's happening, and the Colt train gets rolling as they pull away and win.

This cannot happen today.

The teams trade three and outs to begin the second half. It takes all the way until 7:33 of the third for anybody to score, as we get another FG to take a 19-17 lead, but even this was a field possession score generated by just two first downs. The Colts still cannot respond with anything, and when we least expect it, the big score finally comes.

Vick throws a 56 yard touchdown pass to Brent Celek, but it's called back by a holding penalty, leaving us in a brutal second and 26 situation. It drops our expected points on this drive almost to zero, but Vick responds with a 22 yard pass that generates 1.4 expected points all by itself, and then with a 32 yard scramble on third down that generates three expected points all by itself.

We're not out of the third quarter yet, but we've just seen the most crucial plays of this game. At 13:58 of the fourth we score the touchdown to go up 26-17, at last getting back to that two score comfort zone that's absolutely imperative against Peyton.

The Colts still cannot accomplish anything on offence, and our next touch takes six minutes off the clock. This is about as successful as a drive can be without scoring, as our WP is five percent higher at the end than the start. This leaves the Colts just 6:05 to try to get back into this game, and this is where we have to say it. The motto of my Big Four series. Repeat after me.

Do not give Peyton Manning life. He will punish you severely.

This Colts team that hasn't been able to accomplish anything in the whole second half, in typical Peyton Manning fashion, morphs back into a juggernaut. Fourth and 18 can't stop them. Third down on the goal line can't stop them. The Eagles certainly can't stop them, and at 1:52 of the fourth our lead is back down to two.

The Colts are able to get the ball back at the 40 second mark, and everybody's hearts are in their throats with Peyton needing just a field goal to win, but this is 2010 Peyton. It's not 2004 anymore. The defence is able to hold, and we're able to squeak out of a game that we dominated with a two point win.

Mike has done it again. In his first game back, he's outplayed Peyton Manning, just like he did with Aaron Rodgers. At this point, people are starting to take notice. This isn't a cute comeback story anymore. It's more like a run at the MVP award. It'll be almost impossible for Vick to win given the three games missed for injury, but he's got a real chance to put up MVP-like stats.

What's interesting to me about this is it's so anti-Atlanta. Surely you noticed that I didn't mention Vick's name very much in that game. It's because he didn't do anything particularly impressive. In Atlanta, Mike would accomplish something spectacular in every game, but typically walk out with a loss and fairly bad numbers. In Philadelphia it's the opposite.

Nothing particularly spectacular was done here. I know he completed a 58 yard pass to DeSean Jackson, and I know the 32 yard scramble on the third down in the third quarter was crucial to the outcome of this game. Both of these plays would be considered spectacular if done by another man, but neither of these plays will make the Vick career highlight reel.

In His Year, Mike doesn't need spectacular. He just generated a very good 0.24 EPA/Play and did just enough to get far enough ahead that Peyton couldn't catch him.

If he can do it to Peyton Manning, he can do it to anybody.

Okay. That’s all great and stuff, but now that I've mentioned all of that obligatory stuff about how he doesn't need to be spectacular to win anymore, how would we like to see some spectacular?

Everybody remembers what happens in week ten in Washington, but people tend to forget the context. This is a game between the 5-3 Philadelphia Eagles, and the 4-4 Washington Redskins. Recall that the ‘Skins already beat us in week four, so if we want to keep any hope of being the ones to chase down the sinking Giants (who lost this week to fall to 6-3) then this is a must win.

Additionally, this is the same team that injured Vick, kickstarting the Kevin Kolb resurgence back in week four, and prevented Mike from cementing himself in the starter role until present. Kevin is still waiting on that sideline to take Vick's job, and the cause for that is the Washington Redskins.

Knowing what will go on to happen here, I have no doubt that there was some revenge on the mind.

This game was also meant to be the big showdown between Donovan McNabb on his new squad versus his old squad. As such, this was scheduled as a Monday night primetime game. This hasn't really worked out, as Donovan has generated negative EPA/Play on a negative CPOE for Washington, and it's already clear as day that the Eagles made the right choice. The two best QBs of the three they started with are still in Philadelphia.

Nevertheless, Vick will use the Monday night stage to show the world that he is back. Atlanta Vick is still in there somewhere, but he's now adorned with the attentiveness and consistency of Philadelphia Vick. These two forces combined are too much for any defence to handle.

Tonight, Mike will use the same Washington team that nearly ripped his starting spot away as a springboard to the permanent starting position. Kevin Kolb will never take another meaningful snap for the Philadelphia Eagles.

I wish there was more to say, but this is no contest. We turn our first five possessions into touchdowns, and take a 35-0 lead on the first play of the second quarter. From here this game is over, so the dogs are called off a little bit, but we'll turn our remaining seven possessions into two more touchdowns and a field goal in a 59-28 drubbing of the Washington Redskins.

In this game, Vick completes four passes of at least 20 yards air distance (which is a ton). He generates 34.4 total EPA in just 37 touches for a 0.93 EPA/Play figure. Both the total EPA and EPA/Play figures rank in the (rounded) 100th percentile of all games played in the play tracking era, meaning that only a select few games ever played have been better than this Vick performance.

According to ESPN's QBR (which is a private stat, so shouldn't be trusted, but is a good general barometer), this is the second best game any QB has ever had. I wouldn't put it that high myself, but I can only think of a few games better (Roethlisberger vs Indianapolis, McCown vs Dallas spring immediately to mind), so a top five spot is likely to be perfectly rational.

I hate to breeze over the best game of Michael Vick's (and almost anybody’s) NFL career so quickly, but like many great QB performances, it's just not that entertaining. It takes two to make a great QB game. The thing that makes the aforementioned Roethlisberger and McCown performances so great is that they were both moderately close in the second half (in Ben's case, a one score game in the fourth), and forced the QBs involved to keep going.

In Vick's case, this game was 35-0 after the first quarter, and there was no reason to keep pushing. This had all the makings of being the best game any QB has ever had, but the lack of pushback robbed him of his chance to go that far. In no way is this Mike's fault, but it's the reason this is a top five game of the new millennium instead of uncontested number one like it could've been.

If you want to see great QB play, watch this game. It's a man amongst boys.

Now that we're past all of that, we have to get back to the 2010 Eagles, because this is the big one.

In week 11, Mike and his 6-3 Eagles are hosting the 6-3 New York Giants in a battle for NFC East supremacy. Week 11 is too early for the season to be on the line, but given the strength of the NFC wild cards (currently the 6-3 Packers, 6-3 Saints, 6-3 Buccaneers are all in the mix, in addition to the division leading 6-3 Bears and 7-2 Falcons), both of these teams have to be thinking that their only realistic chance at the playoffs is to go through each other, and win the NFC East. There is another matchup in week 15 to relitigate this issue, but it's always good to take the first one, to keep up in both the division and wild card race.

Quite honestly, neither offence acts like it, as both teams start with three and outs, but on the second touch, we strike first.

A little BTS here. If a drive features one third down or less and ends in a touchdown, I class it internally as an 'easy score.' This Philadelphia drive technically qualifies, but it’s anything but easy. It features seven negative EPA plays, but still somehow still sees just one third down as Vick converts on second and 18, second and seven, second and nine, in addition to the third and nine he faces on a drive that takes seven minutes and fourteen plays to take a 7-0 lead.

When was the last time that you saw a drive that saw just one third down get to either the seven minute or fourteen play mark? This Eagle offence is so explosive that it has the capability to consistently play from behind the sticks, yet still never face much real jeopardy. For reference, the Giants' next touch takes roughly eight minutes and 15 plays to respond with a field goal, but along the way it sees four third downs. That’s what a normal offence looks like.

From here, both of these offences begin to look very normal, as the Giants (and their league leading pass defence) sufficiently keep us hemmed in. Due to two Giant turnovers, we manage two field goals, but don't get a first down on either touch. By the time we get the ball back again after that, it's the two minute drill already, and it looks good, getting all the way to the Giant 15 before the drive is crippled by a 15 yard clipping penalty. Even these Eagles can't overcome second and 25, and with our field goal try being blocked, this game heads into half with a 13-3 score.

This may not seem great because this is a QB article, and Mike has just had his worst half of the season so far, but this is looking really good for the Philadelphia Eagles. Going into half with a 13-3 lead and the ball coming out of the half, when Eli Manning and the Giants' offence has had nothing for us all day has positioned the Eagles with an 88 percent estimated WP at the half. When we use the ball to go down the field and score another field goal to boost our lead to 16-3, this increases to 94 percent.

Just when everything looks good in Philadelphia, it all falls apart.

The Giants finally overcome themselves (in large part due to a DPI penalty on third and 14) and score a touchdown to narrow the score to 16-10. This would not be such a disaster (it only reduces our estimated WP to 84 percent) it not for what happens next. What happens next will change the complexion of this game, and this season, for the Philadelphia Eagles.

Michael Vick commits his first turnover.

Defying belief, Michael Vick of all people has come all the way to week 11 of the 2010 season without committing a single turnover. Zero interceptions, and zero fumbles lost. For reference, his previous career long streak was three and a half starts in 2002. It was a streak that lasted 121 plays, which is dwarfed by the 214 plays we've just seen, but with a lost fumble on a Justin Tuck strip sack, all of that is over. It takes New York just two plays to get in the end zone again, and out of nowhere we’re behind 17-16.

This is the exact thing that happened against Indianapolis. A comfortable lead is now gone, and when our potential response is inexplicably snuffed out by another clipping penalty (tell me the last time you saw two of those in the same game), our chances of winning drop below 50 percent for the first time all day.

Philly has dominated this whole game, but now we stand a real chance of losing it. We haven't scored since their first touch of the half. It's now 7:52 of the fourth. The defence has done a very good job of saving the offence's bacon all day long, but this has a real chance of being the our final touch if we can't convert it into any points.

Recall what I told you about the wild card race. The Packers, Bucs, and Saints have all already won this week to move to 7-3. The Eagles have already lost to the Packers, and will not play the Buccaneers or Saints, so even a one game deficit will prove extremely hard to make up if this score holds and we drop to 6-4. Losing here would almost mandate going on the road to New York and beating these Giants in a winner take all week 15 game for the division, and that's if we can make it that far still within one game of New York.

For all intents and purposes, this drive is for all the marbles.

It starts off well, with Mike completing a 10 and then a 19 yard pass to get out to the 41, but from here it stalls again against the brick wall that is this Giant defence. First and second down both see short gains. Third down sees an incompletion bailed out by an offside penalty, but the replay also sees an incompletion, so now it comes down to this.

Fourth and one from the 50 yard line, with the season in the balance. Who do you think we’re going to give the ball to?

Did you fall for it? The Giants certainly did.

The Giants are so terrified by the spectre of a Michael Vick run that when he pitches the ball outside the tackle to LeSean McCoy, they've got nothing out there to defend him with. It's a 50 yard run and a touchdown for the Eagles.

On the play by play sheet, Vick has nothing to do with this play. It does not credit his EPA/Play numbers. His name is not even mentioned on the broadcast, but this is what having Michael Vick does for you. This is what the Eagles were looking for when they brought him in last year. On this play, Mike didn't even need to use his legs. Fear was his legs, and the Eagles are up 24-17.

With what the Giants' offence has been able to do today, this game is now over. The fans know it. The commentators know it. The WP model knows it. We (with a garbage time field goal) have won 27-17, and have taken a stranglehold on the NFC East lead.

Mike was not at all impressive today. He essentially handed the Giants a touchdown with his fumble, and generated negative EPA/Play on the day. He didn't throw any touchdowns, nor did he complete any outstanding passes. Without doubt, this was his worst game of the season, and the Eagles still spent most of it not in any form of jeopardy.

Now 7-3, and already with a win over the first seeded 8-2 Falcons, these same Eagles who looked like they could be out of the playoff picture altogether now look like a solid bet for the NFC's first seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The only thing we need to do to have a really good path to get there is get through week twelve.

Week twelve sees us going to Chicago to take on the 7-3 Chicago Bears. For the second week in a row, this game is pivotal for playoff positioning. With a win, we will have all but clinched a first round bye (Chicago is our only competition for it) and would need just one slip up from Atlanta to finish as the NFC's top team. With a loss, we've all but surrendered the two first round byes to the Bears and Falcons, and have to go back to fending off those pesky Giants to even maintain our playoff spot.

This is a game that's been forgotten by history, but it's one of the most important games the 2010 season has to offer. It sees us playing in a featured slot for the fourth week in a row (two primetime games, and two 4PM game of the week slots), and it sees us going up against an elite defence for the second week in a row. We’re coming into this game as slight (three point) favourites, but this is getting to be really difficult scheduling, and it shows.

It shows everywhere. The same defence that ruined Eli Manning's life last week is all of a sudden giving up 0.58 EPA/Play to Jay Cutler, who aside from this game will generate 0.019 total EPA in 2010. Not EPA/Play. Total EPA. That is far from impressive. For his part, Mike plays better than he did against the Giants, generating 0.09 EPA/Play today, but this isn't good enough to keep up with what Cutler's doing on the other side.

All of this adds up to a rather wide loss. The score is 31-26 due to a garbage time touchdown, but it wouldn't have been this close if the Bears hadn't called off the dogs in the fourth. This loss is not Mike's fault. Nobody could've beaten Jay Cutler with the way he played today, but still. If he could've played as well against Chicago's fifth ranked defence as he did against Green Bay's second ranked one, the Eagles could've stood a better chance.

Nevertheless, the Eagles have now officially taken their first loss under Vick, and have fallen to 7-4. A first round bye is now out of reach, and we're back into a tie for the division lead with those damn Giants again. This has the potential to get out of hand quickly if things don't turn around, but thankfully for us, there are no more top five defences for a little while.

What next week does hold however is another tough matchup, this one against the perpetually underrated Matt Schaub as we play the Houston Texans in a featured game (this time on Thursday night) for the fifth week in a row. This game makes everybody forget the mediocrity of the past two weeks, as Mike outduels a very game Schaub, including two clutch fourth touchdown quarter drives to initially take a 27-24 lead, and then to extend that lead to 34-24, which ends up being the final.

This was not an upset. We were fairly hefty favourites here. The 2010 Texans are not a very good team, and boast the league's worst defence, but this was still an important game for Mike. Since his decimation of the ‘Skins, he'd had two games where he'd hovered around zero EPA/Play and committed a turnover in each. He committed a turnover here too, but when you generate 0.43 EPA/Play on a day with a 68.8 true completion percentage (which excludes spikes and throwaways), you're allowed to throw an interception here and there.

Needless to say, the slump is broken. 0.11 EPA/Play on the road in Dallas (in yet another primetime game. Six in a row) in week 14 is not great, but it's good enough to pull off another win that never really felt out of hand, despite winning by just three points (30-27), and the Eagles are 9-4.

Obfuscated by the team's total record is the fact that that we’ve gone 7-1 with Mike at the helm (7-2 if you want to count the first Washington game, but he didn't even finish the first quarter in that one), and have won five of our six games since he's come back.

Unfortunately, so have the New York Giants, who are still lurking around looking to ruin the Michael Vick comeback story. They're on an impressive three game win streak since losing to us, including allowing just ten points total in the past two weeks. The first place Giant defence that gave Mike more trouble than anybody the first time around is on a roll now. That's not good for us. What's also not good for us is that this take is taking place in New York.

The 2010 Giants are not an unbeatable home team, but they are coming into this game as home favourites.

That's a testament to how good this Giants team has been over the past few weeks. An Eagles team that didn't have much trouble beating them the first time, riding a five of six game wave since getting Mike back, is going into New York as underdogs in a game that, strangely enough, is not for everything in the way the first one was.

When these two teams first squared off, the NFC East was the only path into the playoffs for either of them, but due to being the two best teams in the NFL in the weeks since, that is no longer the case. Both come into this game at 9-4. The Saints have the first wild card spot locked up by now, but in the competition for the second one, the Packers and Buccaneers have both fallen off. Both are going to lose today to fall to 8-6, so unlike the first time around, the loser of this game is still going to be in playoff position.

Additionally, the Giants are playing for a first round bye today. Due to their victory over Chicago ( the Bears are Mike's only loss), they're in a position to be able to fight for that second spot that we are not. In fact, they'll take it with a win. There's not nothing on the line for our Eagles, but the Giants are playing for a lot more than we are.

This shows in the first half. Much like the first game, Mike cannot get anything going against this New York defence, scoring just three points and generating only three first downs in the half. Unlike the first game though, Eli Manning is making him pay for it, scoring 24 points and going into the half sporting a 24-3 lead.

Remember how everything was looking good at the half for the Eagles the first time around with an 88 percent WP? The Giants are sporting 96 right now. That's a 96 percent chance to move on to fight Chicago for a first round bye. A 96 percent chance to send Mike and his Eagles to go fight with the Packers and Buccaneers over the only remaining wild card playoff spot.

Looking at it from the Eagles' perspective, this is a four percent chance to win the NFC East that we've been in control of for months now. Ever since the Kevin Kolb show in Atlanta, this has been our division to lose. Michael Vick has lost one game this season, and yet somehow here we are, losing it. The football Gods owe nobody anything (except apparently the 2022 Minnesota Vikings), but this still seems unfair.

Everything has gone so right all season, and we get to the big game, and it's somehow going all wrong.

This does not get better in the second half. As we punt away our first two second half possessions, our WP drops all the way to one percent. A one percent chance to keep hopes at a home playoff game alive. We’re gifted a touchdown by a Mario Manningham fumble to cut the score to 24-10, but this only raises our WP to five percent. It's still five percent after we punt away our next touch. It's still five percent when we get the ball back still down 24-10, but it's about to change.

What happens on the very first play of our very next touch will set into motion the chain of events that will make this week 15 game one of the most legendary games in modern NFL history.

Mike finds a wide open DeSean Jackson, who gets all the way to the Giant 49 yard line on the run, which is the second furthest we've been all night, exempting aid from Giant turnovers (we're in the fourth quarter folks).

This would be a great start to a potential Philadelphia comeback, if only he didn't fumble the football.

I hear you Philly fans. I know he was clearly down. In the modern age of all turnovers being auto reviewed, there's a zero percent chance this would stand, but Andy Reid (notoriously reluctant with his challenge flag) decides to keep it in his pocket and let the bogus fumble call stand. Four minutes later, the Giants are in the end zone again. It's now 31-10 at 8:23 of the fourth, and we've reached the promised land.

It wouldn't be an article of mine if a zero percent chance to win didn't pop up. That's where we are. As educated football fans, we all know what a zero percent WP means, and that it does not mean that Philadelphia has no chance at winning here. It just means that nobody's ever done it before from this position.

What do you say Mike? We may have to do something about this.

It takes him less than a minute to make up seven of the points, throwing a beautiful 65 yard touchdown ball to Brent Celek, cutting the deficit to 31-17. This is a good start, but our WP is still just one percent. What really gets this comeback going is when the Giants sell out early on the ensuing kickoff. This leaves the field wide open for the surprise onside kick that the special team unit pulls off to perfection. The onside kick recovery (three percent) is actually a bigger play for win probability than the first touchdown (one percent).

Now that we’ve got the ball again, it's time for Mike to go back to work. He does it in a way that only Michael Vick can. Crazy throws off the back foot? You've got it. Scramble out of a sack and end up with a 35 yard gain? Yes sir. Designed QB run for a touchdown? No doubt. 31-24? Absolutely.

This drive is better than any at demonstrating the positive points of Philadelphia Vick. He can not do all of the things Atlanta Vick could do anymore (the scramble out of the sack would've been a touchdown if this were still Atlanta Vick), but he can do so much more than he ever could back then.

He can fade away from pressure and actually make a throw instead of just getting the ball out. He can recognize pressure fast enough to make a big gain out of it. He's a good enough passer now that the defence bites on a QB draw from the five. None of this could've happened four years ago, but it's happening now, and because of that, the Eagles get the ball back at 3:01 down just seven points.

Zero percent WP be damned. Mike has a real chance to go down and tie this game.

Now that we've demonstrated the positive points of Philadelphia Vick, allow me to demonstrate the positive points of Atlanta Vick, because this last drive is very Atlanta. On first down, Mike inexplicably misses a wide open Brent Celek. On second down, he eludes the pressure, only to miss a wide open DeSean Jackson. On third down, he never has any intention of throwing the football. Mike sees his opening and takes it for a 33 yard run. This drive is so old school Vick that Mike even elects to take the hit on the end of this run instead of just stepping out of bounds, a bad habit that Atlanta Vick had always had, but one that he’d gotten out of in Philadelphia.

New set of downs.

First down, Mike takes an unnecessarily big drop back (another bad Atlanta Vick habit), which causes him to read late that Jason Avant is open, but he's Michael Vick, so he slings the ball into the unnecessarily tight window for a first down, and everybody forgets. Next play, Vick steps into the pocket and tries to make a throw. Very Philadelphia of you Mr. Vick, but the pass is batted at the line. Second down, we're again back in Philadelphia, as Mike does drop back with the intention to throw, but sees a hole open up in the front, so takes it forward with a 22 yard run.

This drive started in Atlanta, and it’s ended in Philadelphia, as Vick weathers the pressure to find a wide open Jeremy Maclin for a 13 yard touchdown strike. Recall what I told you earlier. When Atlanta Vick and Philadelphia Vick are working together, there's not a defence in the world that can stop him. Six minutes ago the Eagles had a zero percent chance to win this game. Now we're tied.

That's what the two Vicks can do for you.

Mike will not see the field for the rest of this game, as this game will end on the famous DeSean Jackson punt return touchdown.

Quick aside: people question why the Giants kicked the ball to DeSean Jackson right here, and I will tell you that I agree with it one hundred percent. I'll tell you why.

The first thing that people forget is that this punt happens with 14 seconds left on the clock. Not eight seconds. Not five seconds, but 14 seconds. Why does this matter? It matters because DeSean Jackson averages 11.4 yards per return. This puts the ball at approximately the Philadelphia 45 yard line with roughly five seconds to play, assuming that Jackson doesn't break something open (stay with me here). This leaves time for one play. More on this later.

The alternative is turning and kicking the ball out of bounds, which eliminate the chance of a return, but would stop the clock sooner, and shorten distance. Let's say he can kick the ball to the 45 out of bounds, and the clock will stop with nine seconds left (the ball hits Jackson's hands at ten seconds, so I'm being generous here). This leaves the Eagles with one play to try to get into field goal range, approximately 18 yards away. It will be hard with no timeouts, but if I had to pick one QB from all of NFL history to sling the ball into an impossibly tight window 18 yards down the field because everybody in the stadium knows your receiver has to get out of bounds, 2010 Michael Vick (with his combination of Atlanta Vick arm strength and Philadelphia Vick ability to read the defence) might just be my first overall pick.

Returning to the prior scenario, you are taking a chance at allowing DeSean Jackson to touch the ball, but entirely eliminating Michael Vick's chance to touch the ball. If Jackson is tackled after a ten yard return (which by all means is what should have happened), then there is time for one Hail Mary pass. Michael Vick is pretty good at those, but I'd still rather take my chances with that.

The New York Giants decided that they were more afraid of Michael Vick than DeSean Jackson, and I entirely agree with them. The right choice was to punt the ball in bounds, and that’s what the Giants did. It just worked out badly.

DeSean Jackson isn't a full time punt returner anymore, and as a result is not as good as he once was. This is evidenced when he bobbles the catch, drops the ball, and takes several bad steps upon picking it up. It's the luck of fools and Eagles that the Giants' special teams unit has not prepared for this scenario of the punt returner not having moved more than a second after the ball came down, and lose lane integrity, allowing Jackson to burst through the Mac truck sized hole in the punt coverage and go on and score a touchdown.

I believe anybody could've done this. Nothing special was done by DeSean Jackson on this play. In fact, I (paradoxically) believe just how disastrously bad his catch went is what sprung the hole open that he ran through. That’s not something to give a player credit for, but people only remember results.

As a result of all this, the lasting image of this game is Jackson's teammates chanting ‘MVP’ at him in the end zone, following possibly his worst game of the entire season. It's forgivable for people to get caught up in the moment, but I am not in that moment, so I can say that this makes no sense, and I think this lasting memory has unfairly robbed Michael Vick of the credit he deserves for orchestrating this comeback.

Mike went in there against a defence that'd stonewalled him for seven and a half quarters, and in seven and a half minutes did what nobody had been able to do to the 2010 Giants. He put up 21 points in one quarter. Only Peyton Manning had been able to put up that many points in an entire half against these Giants. Michael Vick did it in seven and a half minutes. Give him the respect he deserves.

DeSean Jackson did not win this game for the Eagles. Michael Vick did.

With the win, and a Giant loss in week 16, the Eagles officially have nothing left to play for in the last two weeks of the season. Their third spot is locked in (barring miracle Bears losses that don't come), and as such nobody really cared as they lost their last two games of the year to finish 10-6. The last one even saw Kevin Kolb get his fifth and final start of the season, where he generated a nauseating -0.37 EPA/Play and got outplayed by Stephen McGee, in his first and only NFL start.

Yikes. Remember when we wanted to start that guy?

With that, it's now been made crystal clear that Mike has been the correct choice all along.

We've all come a long way since FPC Leavenworth, but nobody more than Michael Vick. It's too easy to forget that this season began with protest. Be it the NFL teams (except the Philadelphia Eagles) all refusing to have him on their roster as he sat behind bars, or the animal rights protesters (and NAACP counter protesters) picketing outside the stadium on a day Vick was scheduled to start a preseason game, or Eagles fans protesting the fact that they couldn't have their golden boy because Vick was too good, the bottom line is that nobody wanted this. Nobody wanted Michael Vick to be successful in the NFL again.

Nobody except Michael Vick.

This man began His Year as the third QB on the depth chart. He went through all of training camp as the second QB on the depth chart, and performed so well that he gave Andy Reid second thoughts going into the first game of the year.

From here, fortuitous circumstances would hand Mike the starting job, but this was not the end of his tribulations. Despite not losing a game until the end of November, he somehow lost the starting job twice, but in the end he managed to get around all the awkwardness in order to get the Eagles on a winning streak that could've seen them as the NFC's first seed if not for a loss in Chicago that was not Mike's fault.

Throughout this process, Vick managed to play 514 plays in just eleven games. If Vick could've played a full 16 game season, this would've translated to 748 touches, which is a total that would have landed Vick fourth in the league in 2022 (where all QBs get to play an extra game). This would far and away lead the less QB-centric 2010 season in touches, meaning these Eagles were leaning on him really hard.

It worked, as Mike led the Eagles to the league's fifth best total offence, but perhaps if the Eagles would've used their fourth ranked rush offence more, he wouldn't have lost almost four full games to injuries, and he could've actually been in contention for the MVP award like he should've been.

It's easy to look at the surface level things and assume Vick had all the help in the world, because of the big names that are on this Eagle roster, but this is not true. None of these young Eagles have evolved into their final forms yet. We will see what these Eagles can do at their greatest extent when Nick Foles is one of the NFL’s best QBs in 2013, but in 2010 none of them are there yet.

LeSean McCoy is not yet what he would become, and was not used nearly enough for my tastes this season. Same goes for Jeremy Maclin, who is the best of this bunch. We know he will go on to be great, but in 2010 he's not quite there yet. Brent Celek had been one of the better tight ends in the NFL in 2009, but his 2010 was a total dud. It can likely be considered the worst season of his entire NFL career. No help there, and the cherry on top is DeSean Jackson, who finished fifth in Offensive Player of the Year voting despite most metrics (including a 2% DVOA, according to football outsiders) showing him as being a league average receiver in 2010, and having a catch percentage (catches divided by targets) of just 49.5%.

You don't need me to tell you that that's horrible, but what you perhaps do need me to reveal is that there were some weird trends with the 2010 Eagles. Brent Celek, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin all posted abnormally low catch percentages in 2010. This could perhaps be indicative of Vick throwing a ball that's tough to catch. I would believe this if not for both LeSean McCoy and Jason Avant posting career highs in catch percentage in this 2010 season.

There are two possibilities here. One is that Mike's balls were tough to catch, and that he was hurting himself and his teammates by not throwing a more catchable ball, but for whatever reason LeSean McCoy (always a good receiving back, but never again this good as a receiver) and Jason Avant (never better than the third receiver on any team after this) were immune to this problem. The other is that Mike's top three receiving weapons had a down year all at once, and he had a career year anyway.

You choose which you want to believe, but I know which one I want to believe, because it's not supposition that Vick's top two receivers and his top tight end all caught many less balls than they did in any other comparable season. That is a fact. Something else that is not a supposition, but a fact, blew my doors off when I saw it.

Michael Vick was the most accurate passer in the NFL anyway.

If you would've asked me in the Atlanta days whether Michael Vick could lead the NFL in any passing accuracy metric, I would've construed it as a pretty solid football joke, and laughed fairly hard at it. After all, coming into 2010, his career best for CPOE in a season was -4.

Negative. Four.

That's not just bad. That's horrendous. For scale, Bryce Young, in the never ending nightmare that was his rookie season, posted a CPOE of -1.4. That was seen as a colossal disappointment out of a rookie, and it's better than the best that Atlanta Vick ever did. That's what we were dealing with here. Atlanta Vick was a player that was not just bad when it comes to accuracy. Bad would be an understatement, and yet here we are.

Despite having a team full of receivers with a bad case of butter fingers, and (according to NFLFastR's expected completion percentage model) attempting the very most difficult passes in the NFL, Michael Vick is sitting here, at the end of the 2010 NFL season, with a 6.2 CPOE. The best in the league.

In a 2010 season that features the second (Chad Pennington), third (Peyton Manning), fourth (Drew Brees), seventh (Tony Romo), eighth (Aaron Rodgers), and tenth (Philip Rivers) most accurate passers in the history of the CPOE statistic, the most accurate of them all is Philadelphia Vick.

How about that?

What else do I need to tell you about the transformation of Michael Vick? It's already a miracle that this man was able to lead the league in not just any accuracy metric, but the accuracy metric.

I can tell you that the accuracy translated into 0.215 EPA/Play (4th) on the year, and into a 7.29 ANY/A (6th), but you don't need the summary stats to tell you that this year was great. In fact, he slightly underperformed to have such a high CPOE number translate into those results, likely as a result of the high number of sacks that even in His Year, Mike still has a propensity to take.

Now having proven that he is a top five NFL QB, there is one more mission for Michael Vick and his Eagles. They have to now make their attempt at the Super Bowl. There's just one problem with this. The Eagles' first round opponent is the juggernaut known as the 2010 Green Bay Packers.

Allow me to explain. These 2010 Eagles are good. Their 9.55 expected wins are good for fourth in the NFC, which fits their third seed pretty well (when you take into account that good teams can be in the same division). The 2010 Packers are great. They rank sixth in offence and second in defence. They lead the NFC in point differential. They lead the NFC in expected wins, and they're only coming to Philadelphia in the first place because of back to back overtime losses in weeks four and five against Washington and Miami. If the Packers had won either of those overtime games, they would be sitting at home on a first round bye right now, but since they didn't, Mike and his Eagles have to deal with the 12.35 expected win juggernaut that is the Green Bay Packers.

I bring all of this up to say that, even though we come into this game as one point home favourites, the bookies really didn't know what was up in 2010. The WP model gives us a 49 percent chance of winning at kickoff. I think even this is generous. I see us as massive underdogs here. The slight positive to this is that there will be no tougher opponents. With modern eyes I can say with confidence that there is no NFC team better than the sixth seed Green Bay Packers. If Mike can knock them off, the Super Bowl is in sight.

This starts off very badly, as two of the first three offensive plays are sacks. A muffed punt catch plus one first down gets us into field goal range, but the try is missed. Remember this for later, but for now, remember how Mike struggled against the suffocating Giants defence in the first seven quarters of their meetings. This Packer defence is even better, and they show it.

Just like against the Giants, Mike spends most of the first half not being able to get anything accomplished. By the time the Eagles get across midfield (with a 45 yard Vick to Maclin connection), we're already down 14-0. There is a field goal near the end of the half to narrow the score to 14-3, but this is still dire.

Surely going into half down 14-3 against the league's second best defence was not the plan. Uncharacteristically (for 2010), Mike is really struggling to complete his passes. I won't go so far as to say the word Atlanta, but he’s really struggling against this Packer defence, and just nine touches for LeSean McCoy in the first half indicates that Andy Reid is not comfortable enough with the rush game to make it the primary source of attack. Just like in New York, like it or not, Mike is the game plan.

The Packers do get the ball to begin the second half, but a strip sack sets us up brilliantly, and we capitalize, Mike throwing a beautiful ball to Jason Avant for the touchdown that makes the score 14-10, but before we can get the ball back it's 21-10 On the next touch, we get all the way to the Packer 35, but lacking confidence in their field goal team, we punt from here. A team should never punt from the 35, under any circumstances. This is one of the worst decisions Andy Reid is ever made as an NFL coach, but luckily for everybody, the Packers are held to just three plays on their next offensive touch, so this game can continue with just an eleven point separation.

This is also looking in jeopardy when the Eagles commit two penalties on our first two plays to find ourselves in first and 25 on our own 31. Two plays later we've only cut it down to third and 14, and this is again looking dire. Our estimated WP has dropped all the way to 14 percent, and we're in danger of running out of minutes in the exact same fashion that happened in week one against Green Bay. We're not even into the fourth quarter yet, but there's been only a few Packer possessions all night that lasted fewer than five minutes.

This is all to say that this third and 14 is a crucial play in this game. If converted, we will be nearly into field goal range already, and are more likely than not to make this a one possession game before the fourth quarter starts. If not, we will have to punt, and try our chances with stopping Aaron Rodgers again. The Packers will have the ball to start the fourth, and this game will be getting very close to being over. Certainly, our WP will fall below ten percent.

It's plays like these that are not remembered. They're overshadowed by what happens in the final five minutes, but the real clutch players show up in the third quarter when their team needs them, and just like all season, we learn who the real clutch players are for the Eagles, as Mike drops another beautiful ball on Jason Avant (in a fashion weirdly similar to the touchdown pass) that keeps this drive moving.

The WPA graph will show you that this Vick to Avant pass was worth seven percent WP (from 14 to 21), but it cannot tell you the whole story. If this pass would've fallen incomplete, our WP would've been approximately seven percent, but it's 21. Looking at it this way, the WPA for this catch is 14 percent, and it suddenly reveals itself as the fourth most important play of this game (and of the Philadelphia season) by Win Probability Added.

As a result, we still have the ball as the fourth quarter starts, but catastrophe strikes as Andy Reid elects to try a field goal on fourth and one from the 16, and David Akers misses for the second time tonight. That's now two missed field goals, and the clutch third and 14 conversion has now been utterly negated as the Packers end up with a two score lead and the ball anyway, and proceed to run four minutes off the clock, but thankfully don't score.

It's not too late to turn this around. There's still 8:50 left in this game, but no more failure can be tolerated. The season is now officially on the line. This drive can technically be a field goal still, but looking at what David Akers has done so far tonight, would you like to test that?

It's touchdown or nothing.

We respond to this in a very 2010 Eagles way. It's another one of our 'easy' touchdown drives, as categorized by my sorting system, but in fact it's not easy at all. Of the 13 plays on this drive, six of them are negative. Nevertheless, the drive still sees just one (goal line excluded) third down. In the end, it takes Mike four tries to get the ball into the end zone, but he is able to do it. The two point try fails, as Atlanta Vick makes an unwanted appearance. Mike takes way too long to see a wide open Brent Celek. He misses him, and in so doing he turns his ankle on the play. The deficit is stuck at 21-16, as the broadcast cuts to Kevin Kolb warming up on the sideline.

Sigh.

Even after everything we've been through, we are still not over this. I know it's fairly customary to cut to the backup warming up if there's potential for the starter to be injured, but Patrick Mahomes broke his ankle in a playoff game against the Jaguars in 2022, and his backup was not given this much attention. This is merely a limping Michael Vick, and the broadcasters are speaking as if there's a real chance of seeing Kevin Kolb. Of course there isn't, but the myth of Kevin Kolb persists even into this playoff game. The awkwardness will never be behind us.

By the time we get the ball again, we are out of timeouts, and there's 1:46 on the clock. It starts great, as we're in Packer territory within one play with a 28 yard completion to DeSean Jackson, but both of the next two plays are incompletions. Third and ten sees a nice completion, and the ensuing first down sees the interception that ends our season.

Did that feel sudden? Watching the game it certainly felt sudden.

This was supposed to be the climax of the story. The old gunslinger who'd been to the top of the world, fallen from grace, gone to prison, done his time, come back a shell of his former self, but ended up better than he’d ever been after the journey, was supposed to use this opportunity to hold the young up and comer Aaron Rodgers down for just a little bit longer as the credits played.

If this were a movie, it would've been a touchdown pass, but this is real life, so it has to stay in the history books as an interception, and the Eagles have to lose a game where they missed two field goals by five points. It feels unfair how we were robbed of a fairy tale ending, as Michael Vick and his Eagles came closer than anybody else to costing Aaron Rodgers his only Super Bowl ring, but I've learned writing these articles that the story never ends the way you want it to.

It's widely acknowledged that the Eagles likely should have won this game. They should have been going to Chicago to rematch one of only two Vick losses all season. Upon the win I think they would've gotten there (I wouldn't bet on Jay Cutler to play that well again), they get to go back to Atlanta to take on a Falcon team they'd already beaten with Kevin Kolb under centre.

Imagine how epic this would've been. Michael Vick coming back to Atlanta to take on his old squad with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line? It sounds magical. It's not that unrealistic either. It was only two missed field goals away from happening.

The path was truly there for Michael Vick to take these Eagles to the Super Bowl. We just drew the short straw of having to face the best team in the NFC in the wild card round, and that sucks. It really does, because Mike will never get back to this level.

He will have one more good season in Philadelphia in 2011, but even that year is nowhere near this one. It will get to the point midway through the year where Eagles fans will wonder whether they should've kept Kevin Kolb. In truth, Vick will never outgrow the spectre of the man the fans never got to see. Even as Kevin goes to Arizona, and stinks up their show, Kevin never got the chance to stink up th Philadelphia show, and as a result the Eagle fans would perpetually wonder 'what-if' during Vick's tenure as their starter, much more than they otherwise would've. This will eventually culminate in Mike having the same thing done to him that he did to Kolb when Nick Foles takes his job in 2013 and has the best season of his career (His Year article incoming).

I don't like this. It always breaks my heart relaying these stories to you about humans like Michael Vick who (in a football context) will never get another chance. He had one chance to etch his name amongst the NFL greats and make 2010 a season that people would remember forever. He just couldn't quite get it done, and as a result people don't remember the awkwardness. They don't remember that Vick lost just twice all season. They don't remember that Atlanta Vick turned into a man capable of leading the league in CPOE.

These things happen, but it doesn't mean I have to like them.

At last, it's over. Mike has completed his transition from disgraced felon to the running for Time magazine's Man of the Year award. He's completed his transition from overrated athlete to great NFL quarterback, and in so doing he's validated all those people for all those years thinking he was a great player all along.

If there's one thing to take away from this 2010 season, let it be this. Without doubt, Philadelphia Vick is the much better of the two Vicks. The highlight reel won't show this, and do you know why that is?

Philadelphia Vick is a victim of his own success.

Because Philadelphia Vick buried all doubt that Mike could be a great NFL QB, he buried everything bad about Atlanta Vick. Nobody remembers that the Falcons were never actually a good offence in his years there. Nobody remembers that Atlanta Vick couldn’t hit a barn door with the football. Nobody remembers that Atlanta Vick’s pocket presence was so bad it rendered his electric feet useless most of the time. Nobody remembers that Atlanta Vick wasn’t willing to put in the effort to become a great player.

If this pattern would’ve continued, and Michael Vick finished his career with his best season being 2002, I’m convinced that all of these negative things would’ve become the prevailing Michael Vick narrative. The Michael Vick story would’ve been that of one of the best athletes of his time throwing all of his physical gifts down the drain, and never turning into a great player.

If this 2010 season had never happened, with the benefit of modern hindsight, Mike would be seen in much the same way as Troy Aikman. He would've been seen as being showered with accolades that he did not deserve, and now would populate list articles and videos made by people like me, detailing the most overrated NFL players of all time, perhaps at number one, just like Aikman does.

I’m not kidding about this. If not for this one season, Michael Vick stands a serious chance at being the most overrated player in NFL history, irrespective of era, irrespective of position. How could he not have been? He generated 0.02 EPA/Play as a Falcon, and was talked about as if he was one of the greats of the game. That is the definition of overrated.

Because of this one season, Mike has not had to fall victim to that fate. He is not the most overrated player in NFL history.

Due to his own misdeeds, he ran out of years rather quickly, spending what should've been his prime living in FPC Leavenworth. Nevertheless, this one season allows us to look back at Michael Vick and remember him as the great player he was. Not for the great player that he could've or should’ve been, but for the great player that he definitively was.

That's a massive difference.

This is how much one season can mean to a player's career, legacy, and life. In just 12 full games of action in 2010, Michael Vick turned his story from one of failure to one of redemption.

In 2010, Mike had more success than in the rest of his football career put together. In so doing, he turned his legacy, his life, and his public opinion around.

Let this be a lesson to have faith in yourself. It's okay to make mistakes. It's okay to hit rock bottom. Michael Vick hit rock bottom. Michael Vick went to prison. Michael Vick got fired on national TV. Michael Vick could not stomach the thought of seeing his own daughters, because every time he saw them, it made them cry. Michael Vick went bankrupt.

Nobody wanted Mike to come back from this. Not the corrupt system that put him behind bars for 23 months on a charge that normally nets 11-13. Not the protest groups that showed up to every game he started for the whole 2010 season. Not the NFL teams, who refused to trade for him for two years before Philadelphia finally gave him a chance, and not his own fans, who wanted Kevin Kolb instead, but damn it. Michael Vick did come back.

Mike came all the way back, from not playing NFL football for four years, all the way to the top of the world, and in so doing, he rectified his legacy as both a person, and a player. Never forget that.

Never forget Michael Vick's year.

Thanks so much for reading.