Terrific article, I especially like how you take the opportunity to have a dig at the NFL communities 4th Qtr obsession when evaluating QBs, maybe it’s because I grew up following Soccer and the Aussie football codes (AFL & Rugby League) but this 4th Qtr obsession has always irritated me, you don’t need 4th Qtr miracles if you just build up a lead earlier in the game
It's true. There's no need for fourth quarter heroics if you're up 20 points by the time it starts.
This is where so many people get it wrong about the Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning debate. Tom is the all-time leader in fourth quarter comebacks, because he simply was not as good at getting out to a lead as Peyton was. Therefore, he built up this reputation of being able to overcome anything, when in fact I construe this as an insult. An acknowledgement of the fact that he, by all-time great player standards, was behind often. Patrick Mahomes is beginning to morph into the same thing, now that his performance has taken a dip in the last few years. Some people see him as a clutch fourth quarter performer. I see him as a man who is behind so much more often these days than he ever used to be.
If you're really a clutch player, you will not fall behind in the first place. This is why I view the 'Game Winning Drive' and 'Fourth Quarter Comeback' columns on football reference with such contempt. It's like wins on a reliever stat page in baseball, or the most penalty shot goals in soccer or ice hockey. It's a measure of how well you're able to get yourself out of a bad situation, which means more can oftentimes be worse, because that means you're in a lot of bad situations. Something should've been done beforehand (that wouldn't show up on football reference) to prevent the bad situation in the first place.
The key point here is that all points are worth the same thing. Their value does not change in the fourth quarter, no matter how much it feels like they do. A wonderful example is the 2020 playoff game between the Browns and Steelers, where Cleveland hopped out to a 28-0 first half lead, before being outscored 27-13 in the second half. It doesn't matter how much they got outscored by in the second half, because those first half points count too.
It's games like that one that the people who obsess over the fourth quarter are implicitly diminishing. I also have a problem with this, because truly great teams just beat their opponents before the fourth quarter starts.
Terrific article, I especially like how you take the opportunity to have a dig at the NFL communities 4th Qtr obsession when evaluating QBs, maybe it’s because I grew up following Soccer and the Aussie football codes (AFL & Rugby League) but this 4th Qtr obsession has always irritated me, you don’t need 4th Qtr miracles if you just build up a lead earlier in the game
It's true. There's no need for fourth quarter heroics if you're up 20 points by the time it starts.
This is where so many people get it wrong about the Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning debate. Tom is the all-time leader in fourth quarter comebacks, because he simply was not as good at getting out to a lead as Peyton was. Therefore, he built up this reputation of being able to overcome anything, when in fact I construe this as an insult. An acknowledgement of the fact that he, by all-time great player standards, was behind often. Patrick Mahomes is beginning to morph into the same thing, now that his performance has taken a dip in the last few years. Some people see him as a clutch fourth quarter performer. I see him as a man who is behind so much more often these days than he ever used to be.
If you're really a clutch player, you will not fall behind in the first place. This is why I view the 'Game Winning Drive' and 'Fourth Quarter Comeback' columns on football reference with such contempt. It's like wins on a reliever stat page in baseball, or the most penalty shot goals in soccer or ice hockey. It's a measure of how well you're able to get yourself out of a bad situation, which means more can oftentimes be worse, because that means you're in a lot of bad situations. Something should've been done beforehand (that wouldn't show up on football reference) to prevent the bad situation in the first place.
The key point here is that all points are worth the same thing. Their value does not change in the fourth quarter, no matter how much it feels like they do. A wonderful example is the 2020 playoff game between the Browns and Steelers, where Cleveland hopped out to a 28-0 first half lead, before being outscored 27-13 in the second half. It doesn't matter how much they got outscored by in the second half, because those first half points count too.
It's games like that one that the people who obsess over the fourth quarter are implicitly diminishing. I also have a problem with this, because truly great teams just beat their opponents before the fourth quarter starts.
“The key point here is that all points are worth the same thing. Their value does not change in the fourth quarter”
PREACH!!!