His Year: Steve McNair 2003

Despite horrible coaching, an anchor of a rush offence, and crippling injuries, Steve McNair won the 2003 MVP anyway. I'm going to tell you the story.

Welcome back to my Sports Passion Project, where I propose we start a drinking game. By this point, we all must understand my fascination with the 2003 AFC. This is now my fifth article detailing it, with more on the way, so every time I write an article discussing the AFC in 2003, or mention it anywhere else, take a shot.

I’m of course kidding. Don’t drink yourself to death on my account, but I have now shared a wealth of knowledge with you about this season. If you’d like to know about the league happening around this story in this wonderful season, check out some of the links below:

Deep dive focusing on the QB play in 2003.

Jon Kitna (and not Carson Palmer) turning around the Bengals franchise and killing the Bungles forever.

The 2003 Ravens putting out a defence even better than their Super Bowl champion 2000 unit.

Trent Green finally doing some winning in Kansas City, capped off with an unforgettable playoff shootout against Peyton Manning.

As well as the associated context.

All of these things happening in one conference in one season is crazy, and is the reason for my fascination, but in a way all happenings are subordinate to this one, because this is the league MVP. Let’s talk about Steve McNair.

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Before reading this post, I would love if you would go read yesterday’s post detailing the life and career of Steve McNair, and why his death was so heartbreaking, but since this is a football article, here are the football cliffnotes.

Steve McNair had been drafted to the Houston Oilers third overall in 1995, but had to wait two years to start, so by the time he finally did get to start the team was in Tennessee. The Tennessee fans didn’t take him very well, sending him racist fan mail, cheering when he got injured, the works, but had to take him more seriously upon his 1999 run to the Super Bowl.

The 1999 Titans did not belong in the Super Bowl. In fact, they’re one of the luckier NFL teams of all time. It shouldn’t have been so surprising that in the succeeding years they have never made it back. They’ve been to two AFC Championship games since then, but have lost each by double digits.

While the Titans have stepped back, Steve McNair individually has stepped forward in a big way, with 2001 being his breakout season into the top five QB we all remember him as, but over the last few years he has dealt with chest, back, tow, thumb, knee, and head injuries. Over the 2002 season, he was unable to practice at all for the final two months due to all of his injuries.

For the 2003 offseason however, Steve feels healthy. The healthiest he has felt since 1998. He knows he’s about to take the league by storm, but there’s just a bit more context we need before we can get into that.

For 2003, the Titans are going to have the best receiver group in the NFL, bar none. There are three serious threats.

Derrick Mason is going to be the best he ever was, and that’s a high bar. Long known as the league’s premier possession receiver, he and Steve have been tearing up the league a long time. Let’s meet the new players.

Justin McCareins is going to have a long career in the NFL, but he’s going to be an above average NFL receiver just twice, and you’re looking at by far his best version. In 2003 he will grade out as the NFL’s 7th best WR by my calculations. He’ll never get anywhere close to the top 20 ever again, but there’s another player who will.

Drew Bennett is actually going to have better seasons after 2003, but he bursts on the scene in a big way this year, proving that he is here to stay.

This crucial improvement to the receiver group is going to have to make up for the fact that the rush offence is nonexistent. By 2003, Eddie George is cooked, and so is the Tennessee ground game. Generally teams with mobile QBs (like Steve McNair) have seriously inflated rushing numbers, but not these Titans. By success rate, this is the second worst rush offence in the entire NFL, and is going to be providing Steve no help at all most of the time.

Just for an example, look at how this offence operates in their week one AFC Championship rematch against the Oakland Raiders:

30 rush plays. Six of them made the Titans more likely to score. Thanks to the eventual realisation that the Raiders are finished as a contender, and will never be the same again, the Titans are able to win this game 25-20, but at the same time, the 2003 Raiders are terrible. Beating them 25-20 is very far from impressive. If the Titans want to be real contenders, Jeff Fisher must stop letting Eddie George touch the ball 21 times.

Just look at what happens next week.

Eddie George is allowed to touch the ball an astonishing 13 times in the first half of our week two divisional matchup on the road in Indianapolis, and it holds our offence back. All of those who have been around this page recently understand that you cannot waste time against Peyton Manning, and this is why.

The wasted first half gives Peyton the initiative, and before you know it we’re behind by ten, then by 13, and before you know it we’ve been humiliated. In the end, it’s a 33-7 loss to our division rivals, perhaps the most humbling loss anybody in the midst of winning a league MVP has ever taken.

We came into this game as just three point underdogs. To lose by 26 to a division rival (and not one expected to win the division) is unacceptable.

Thankfully, week three is an easy blowout win, but I want to talk about week four, because it’s the touchpoint of what will become the theme of this piece.

Jeff Fisher and OC Mike Heimerdinger are, to put it nicely, old school. Usually, the term ‘old school’ in the NFL means you are either extremely bad at play calling, or have no faith in Steve McNair (or whoever your QB is) whatsoever. I’m going to show you what I mean by this using as an example week four on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Welcome to Steve McNair’s Year.

We did beat this Steeler team in the playoffs last year, but needed the infamous Joe Nedney flop to do it, so these teams are pretty even. Since then, our pass offence has gotten dramatically better. Much better. You can tell already, so after Pittsburgh begins this game with a field goal, guess how our ingenious play callers decide to start this game on offence.

Rush to Eddie George. Failed screen to Eddie George. Third and long. Punt. The Steelers immediately score a touchdown to take a quick 10-0 lead. Surely this time we won’t feel the need to hamstring Steve again.

To be fair, Eddie touches the ball just twice of the six plays on this drive, but he accounts for -1 total yards on those touches and turns second and manageable into third and long both times. Thanks to a 25 yard pass from McNair to Justin McCareins, this drive does get all the way to the Pittsburgh 40, but Mr. Conservative Jeff Fisher is intimidated by 4th and three from the 40, so we punt.

This time, that turns out to be the correct decision, as a sack and a safety move the score to 10-2, and give us the ball back on our own 45. This time, Steve does not give the play calling a chance to get in his way, as a 43 yard pass to Drew Bennett, and then a ten yard TD pass also to Drew Bennett get the Titans into the end zone.

Normally, you would think to go for the two point conversion here, as by 2024 NFL coaches have generally figured out what us data nerds have known for years: playing from behind is bad. Take every possible chance you can to eliminate a deficit, even if it’s one point. It will work out in the long run.

Jeff Fisher decides he’s content with being behind though, so it’s 10-9 after a successful extra point kick.

You know, it’s been refreshing writing about Trent Green, seeing what a good coach with faith in his players can do for a player and team’s fortunes.

Steve McNair does not have that luxury.

Jeff Fisher is a good defensive coach, but since we’re on offence, get used to Jeff making the wrong decision on every 50/50 scenario. In this game, I’m going into granular detail for every one, so I don’t have to do the same for every game going forward, but keep in mind this does not ever change this season. The offensive coaching is this bad every game.

After a Steeler field goal to make the score 13-9, there’s 2:35 left in the second quarter, and clearly demonstrating he has no faith in his QB, Jeff bizarrely decides to wave the white flag, not even trying to score. Keep in mind this drive starts before the two minute warning. There’s plenty of time, but Jeff is so intent not to score that even after the first rush gets a holding penalty and it’s first and 20, the Titans hand the ball off again.

You can’t make this up. Of course, the Steelers call all their timeouts and get the ball back at 1:44, and are perilously close to scoring themselves when Jeff is bailed out again. A Tommy Maddox interception is returned all the way to the Pittsburgh one, and Steve throws another touchdown pass to go into the half with a 16-13 lead, despite his coach’s best efforts.

It’s not like this is Steve McNair’s breakout year. He’s been around forever. Jeff Fisher knows exactly how good he is, especially when healthy, which makes it all the more unacceptable that we’ve just seen a whole half where Steve was allowed to touch the ball just 11 times. It’s also not like those 11 tries were not successful. There were two touchdown passes, one 43 yard pass, one 25 yard pass, and he hasn’t even targeted his best receiver (Derrick Mason) yet.

Why are there only 11 touches to go around?

This does not get any better in the second half. It starts with an Eddie George rush for one yard, an offensive holding penalty, a handoff on second and 19 (!), and Steve doesn’t get to touch the ball until third and 16, where finally Derrick Mason gets his first catch, but it’s not for 16 yards, so we punt.

It’s like the offensive play calling is trying to fail. Look at what happens when it doesn’t.

On the Titans’ next drive, they at last stop handing the ball off, and wouldn’t you know it we score a touchdown. Easily. Steve McNair is being stopped by his own coaches more than by the Steeler defence, but with a 23-13 lead, apparently this is enough to call off the dogs.

Real teams don’t give up trying to score until they’re up by 30, but apparently to Jeff Fisher ten points is a wide enough gap. Steve won’t touch the ball anymore this game. Not at all coincidentally, the Titans won’t get another first down this game either, but once again on this day a bad decision is made to look like a good decision, as the defence does hold and we win.

Just look at this folks:

I mean come on. A 12 percent success rate? That means the Titans ran the ball 25 times, and three of those times made them more likely to score.

Three.

What’s miraculous is just how unbelievable Steve McNair played despite being so hindered by his own team. 0.66 EPA/Play is the cut-off for an all time great game (three SDs over the average QB performance if you’re a stat nerd who knows what that means). Steve easily topped that, while most of the time only being allowed to touch the ball on third and long. That’s extremely impressive, and a sign of things to come, but it will be hard to win this way on a consistent basis.

In fact, it’s going to bite us immediately.

Week five of the 2003 season is remembered as the game that starts the Patriots’ legendary winning streak that will kickstart a dynasty, but I choose to remember it as the day the Titans’ pass offence tried to defeat the eventual Super Bowl champions without any help from any of their teammates, and got very close to doing it.

On the road for the second week in a row to face the New England Patriots actually seemed like a less difficult game than last week (the Patriots were just 2-2 at this point), but when you’re Steve McNair, every game is an uphill battle.

Eddie George operates at a 19% personal success rate on this day, meaning of his 16 touches, three of them make the Titans more likely to score. The rest of the team does no better, with two of their combined seven rushing attempts actually helping the Titans.

Once again constantly faced with second and third and longs (against the vaunted dynasty Patriot defence), Steve actually manages to get his Titans into half with a lead. Unfortunately, this is one of the first great games Tom Brady will ever play, so the Patriots score at every time of asking in the second half, but Steve does manage to stay with him, scoring all but once himself, and pulling the Titans into a 27-24 lead with four minutes to go, but it’s no use. We lose this game 38-30 after a wild last four minutes, and the dynasty Patriots win one of just two shootouts they ever have to play in.

I know I name dropped Tom Brady earlier, but just look at the difference in the way these two teams operated their offences:

One team is always ahead of the sticks and able to throw easy passes due to their very productive rush offence. The other is having to constantly make up third and eights and nines and tens. I’m not exaggerating when I say this was Steve McNair, Derrick Mason, Drew Bennett, and Justin McCareins vs the entire New England Patriots.

That may work against Pittsburgh, but not the dynasty New England Patriots. It’s a compliment just to be able to force these Patriots into a shootout though. The only other QB ever able to do so is Peyton Manning. We know about 2003 Peyton Manning around here, and he didn’t win his either, so while this may be a loss and we’ve fallen to 3-2, it’s an encouraging performance.

If only we could’ve not ran the ball 28 times.

After three tough games in quick succession, our schedule softens from here. Week six is against the softball Houston Texans in just their second season of existence, and it’s an easy victory, but even against an opponent of this calibre, look at the help the pass offence gets:

0.93 EPA/Play in the pass game means you’re going to win, and it’s going to look easy, but this could just as easily have been a humiliating upset if we didn’t have the best QB in the NFL, because he got to throw the ball on first down just eight times this game.

Eight.

That is unbelievable.

Just for comparison, I went and looked at the worst QB in the 2023 NFL season (Bailey Zappe) and saw if he ever had to deal with his coach having such little faith to only allow him to throw on first down only eight times, and the answer is yes, but only once. It’s happened to Steve McNair twice already (only five first down passes against Pittsburgh).

Even Bailey Zappe, the NFL’s worst QB in 2023, had more faith from his coach in that season than Steve McNair has from his in this one.

Why?

Ask Jeff Fisher. I’ve got nothing for you.

What makes this even worse is that Steve is clearly the best QB in the NFL. Skipping past week seven, where we are not favourites on the road against the eventual NFC Champion Carolina Panthers, but go into a half with a 27-3 lead and Steve doesn’t play the second half, and another quick and easy week eight blowout in Jacksonville gets us to our week nine bye at a 6-2 record.

This is still one game behind the 7-1 Indianapolis Colts, who are not slowing down, for the division lead, and considering our week two loss to them it’s more like two games behind. The same goes for the 6-2 New England Patriots, who we are tied with, but functionally are one game behind for seeding purposes.

Looking at QBs in particular though, reveals a runaway at the top of the league. Through nine weeks, Steve leads the NFL with 0.290 EPA/Play, slightly ahead of Peyton Manning’s 0.261, and both are so far ahead of third place Marc Bulger that it’s not useful looking further down the list. These two are so far ahead of everybody else that it’s already just a two horse race for NFL MVP, but looking a little deeper into the stats reveals just how little sense they make.

The weird thing about Steve’s stats is just how little he gets to touch the ball. It reminds me of CJ Spiller in 2012, where despite clearly being the best back in the NFL, his coach would not give him an appropriate number of touches. Steve is no different. He’s neck and neck with Peyton, but the two are far above anybody else. Why does Steve have to beg to touch the ball?

Through nine weeks, Steve has touched the ball just 276 times. Trent Green (a man with a reputation of leaning on his rush offence) has 274 touches. Tommy Maddox and Kerry Collins (both also with that same reputation) have over 50 touches more than Steve does. That’s more than a whole game’s worth.

He’s only got the 18th most touches in the NFL. That’s worse than middle of the pack.

You would ask why a team with such a horrendous rush offence (second worst in the NFL with -0.193 EPA/Play through nine weeks), but the best QB in the NFL, wouldn’t have him leading the league in touches, or at least in the top five or ten, but I’m tired of asking that question. I’ve been asking it for half a season now. I don’t know the answer.

Coming out of the bye against Miami, the offence operates like this:

Against an elite defence like the one they have in Miami, allowing your own QB to pass on first down just nine times sounds like suicide, but you can do whatever you want when you have Steve McNair.

Despite requiring stitches to close a gash from a helmet-to-chin hit that was legal back in these days, he just makes everything look easy. More than 26 touches would’ve helped. Even with extremely limited touches for their best player, the Titans win this game by 24 points, but I want to talk about week 11.

Week 11 is the worst game of Steve’s Year. It’s not even all that close, but I think his very bad day actually helps his case, because it shows what consistently putting your QB into such bad positions will do to a team if you have a normal guy back there.

Steve is not normal. We all know that by now, but on this day he plays like a normal QB, and look at what the Titan offence can do with it:

Yeah folks. That is awful.

When you look specifically at the Titans’ rush offence, their 35 percent success rate means this is actually one of their best games of the season, and even with that, look at what the offence as a whole could do when their QB was not prepared to jump through hoops.

Nothing.

This offence couldn’t do anything, which is exactly my point here. Put a normal QB on these same 2003 Titans, and this would have been a terrible offence. I’m very confident of that, and it’s because of days like this. You cannot put your QB into such awful positions over and over and over and expect him to bail you out in the way Steve does. It’s not a reasonable ask, and yet he’s doing it, because that’s what MVPs do.

Thankfully, the defence stepped up, and so somehow despite generating -0.44 EPA/Play as a team we actually beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 10-3, which moves us to 8-2 and onto week 12, where everything changes, and we can get into the real story of Steve’s 2003 season.

Walking into Atlanta as touchdown favourites against the hapless 2003 Falcons, one would expect another blowout, like we got against Houston and Jacksonville and Carolina and New Orleans, but that’s not what we get. Instead, we fall behind 21-0 by the end of the first quarter.

By 11:18 of the second quarter, Steve has already got this down to 21-14, but on our next touch, the entire complexion of this season will change.

On a five yard completion to Frank Wycheck, Steve comes up gimpy. It looks a lot like Aaron Rodgers in the first game of 2023, but thankfully it’s not an Achilles. It’s a strained calf muscle. Over the years we talked about how Steve has had issues with his back, shoulder, thumb, toe, head and knee. The calf muscle was actually something that’d held up very well for him, but now it’s gone too.

He will play the rest of this season with a very noticeable limp.

Steve is carted off the field, and Billy Volek must come in to finish the game. He does a very good job in leading the team to a 38-31 victory, and it’s very interesting how the play calling changes to put the QB in much fewer disadvantageous positions once the Titans understand they don’t have the league’s best QB anymore.

It’s a very backwards way to give a compliment, but I see you offensive coaches.

Winning is great, but fans wait with breath held until they see Steve’s status for week 13. It’s a Monday Night Football matchup against one of the best QBs in the NFL in a pre-shoulder injury Chad Pennington, so they need their guy. They don’t get their confirmation that Steve is ready to go until about 90 minutes before first kick, but they do get it.

Unfortunately, it’s clear Steve is not the same.

Initially, it looks good, but as the game rolls along Steve just gets outdone by Chad Pennington as the Jets quietly pull away and win 24-17. Steve did generate positive EPA/Play. It’s not like he played badly, but good was all, and on MNF against Chad Pennington, merely good is not good enough.

Steve hadn’t played merely good in a long time. It makes it very clear that this injury is affecting him. In the days following this game, it becomes public information that Steve vetoed QB draw on multiple occasions, which makes this even clearer, because Steve loves QB draw. Evidently, he just didn’t think he could do it.

Steve’s brief period of good health is over. He will spend the rest of the season unable to practice. If you remember, he spent the last two months of last season unable to practice, and still made the AFC Championship game, so this is not a death sentence, but what would really help is a first round bye to give him a little chance to rest up, and what’s standing between the Titans and that first round bye is coming to Nashville for week 14.

We get our rematch with Indianapolis.

Both teams are now 9-3, meaning this game isn’t technically for everything, but for all practical purposes the winner of this game will win the AFC South and have a serious chance at winning the first round bye and a home playoff game. This game is happening in our stadium, so we are favourites, but if the bookies knew just how hurt our QB is, I’m not sure we would be.

The Titans start this game in an uncharacteristic fashion. It’s not uncharacteristic to force our rush offence, but it is uncharacteristic for it to actually work.

Despite coming into week 14 with the NFL's 30th ranked rushing attack, our first drive gets into Colts' territory for a field goal rather easily, largely on the back of Eddie George. After Peyton and the Colts respond with a field goal of their own, Steve leads the Titans right back down the field for a touchdown. The 33-7 blowout early in the year seems like a distant memory, and the Titans have a 10-3 lead.

It’s already becoming evident that the coaching staff knows how important this game is. We’ve already reached five first down pass calls, which is more than Steve gets to see in a whole half most days.

My question is if they could figure this out for the big game, why couldn’t they have just not hamstrung themselves all season? I digress.

From here, the Titans can't do anything right. Our next drive ends in a fumble by Shad Meier on an 18 yard completion. The defence holds the Colts to a field goal. On the next drive, the Titans’ coaches seem to lose everything they’ve been doing well so far. Steve does get to pass on first down, but when it falls incomplete they give the next two touches to the rush offence, including a bizarre handoff on third and nine. The defence holds the Colts to another field goal.

On the ensuing kickoff, the ball is fumbled, and the Colts get the ball yet again. In a minor miracle, the Colts are held to a field goal yet again as the first half ends.

After those amazing first two drives (since 1:49 of the first quarter), Steve McNair has been able to touch the ball just twice, with one of them being an 18 yard completion. Despite playing great so far, he finds himself down 12-10.

The Titans are simultaneously unlucky to be behind and fortunate to still be in the game, especially considering they’re dealing with Peyton Manning.

The Titan defence has been able to keep it to field goals. If our offence can ever get their hands back on the ball, we still have a great chance to win this. Unfortunately, in this game, that is a huge if. By the time the the offence gets their hands back on the ball, the third quarter is better than half over, and we're down 22-10.

How could that happen? Another fumble on a kickoff of course.

That's right. After a Colts touchdown to start the half, the kickoff return is fumbled again, and the Colts get the ball inside our 20 again. Luckily, Peyton and the Colts are again held to a field goal, but it's now 22-10. There's 7:10 left in the third, and remember that since 1:49 of the first quarter (well over an hour ago in real time) Steve McNair has touched the ball just twice.

It'd be generous to say our offence has fallen out of rhythm, and we're coming onto the field in a must score situation.

As a result, the drive does look a little scruffy, featuring multiple second and third and longs, most without the input of the rush offence, but (with help from a roughing the passer penalty) we do manage a field goal to make the score 22-13. However, this doesn't look so good two minutes later when Peyton has just made the score 29-13.

Now these are really must score situations. There's no more tolerance for sloppiness. Every play counts if the Titans still want a chance at a home playoff game in 2003.

On the ensuing drive, I'm convinced the Titans must've heard me crying throughout this whole piece as they drive straight down the field without pausing to rush (thank goodness), and score a touchdown seeing just one third down. The two point conversion is a McNair keep, which with one extra week’s rest he’s now healthy enough to do, and the score is 29-21. We have life.

Following a Colts three and out, it seems like the perfect chance for Steve to make his mark, but the Titans can't go anywhere. This gives the Colts the chance to take three more minutes off the clock, but we will get one final chance, as Steve takes the field down eight, with 2:40 on the clock.

He makes this really anticlimactic.

After four plays we’re on the Colts' one yard line. Three plays later and we're in the end zone. It takes 43 seconds.

At first this seems like a bad thing. 1:57 is a lot of time to leave for Peyton to go on a game winning drive, but actually turns out to be the game saver when the two point conversion pass falls incomplete. After three Colts plays that take the clock down to 50 seconds, Steve and the Titans are going to get a chance with about 35 seconds to go down the field and kick the game winning field goal.

Or would they?

Yet another fumble, this time on the punt return, sinks us. Steve never even gets a chance.

The Colts take this game 29-27, and with two wins over the Titans, they basically wrap up the division too.

This game had to be infuriating for all the Titans’ offensive players, and Steve McNair in specific. They were torturing the Colts, scoring on six of their eight possessions, and generating 0.22 EPA/Play as a team, which is exceptional. This is the one game all season that the coaches have gotten the play distribution correct (42 passes, 20 rushes), and as a direct result the rush offence had its best game of the season by far, but the Titans simply found another way not to allow Steve McNair to touch the ball, by fumbling four times.

The Colts, on the other hand, also scored six times, but they did this on twelve possessions. You can't beat a team when they have 12 possessions to your eight. You just can't do it, but Steve tried his best, and got very close. It wipes the earlier 26 point loss from memory, and gives Steve a great game against Peyton Manning, which will prove critical once MVP voting time rolls around.

In the wake of this game, it will be revealed that Steve has bone spurs in his ankle, and he won't play for weeks, which only makes this game seem even better.

Steve will play one more tune-up, in a meaningless game against the Houston Texans, but by and large his regular season is over.

Something I also find very telling is that in the week 17 game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the Titans feel the need not just to sit Steve in preparation for the playoffs, but also backup Billy Volek, bringing third string QB Neil O’Donnell to defeat Tampa Bay.

If the Titans are also sitting their backup QB on the eve of the playoffs, that’s a clear sign they think there’s a real chance of having to use him. It’s not unwarranted either. Steve is a legend for playing hurt, and that’s saying something in a league where playing hurt is something you’re supposed to do, but he’s now on two bad legs. The bad calf is on one leg. The bone spurs are in the other, and it’s hard to describe the look of a human limping on both legs at once, but that’s what Steve will do throughout these playoffs.

Going back and watching these playoff games made me say ouch. Steve is hurting so much that he makes you hurt too.

At this time, Steve is only 30 years old, but he’s walking like a senior, and will never really stop walking like a senior. At only the age of 30, Steve has already given his long term health to the pursuit of a Super Bowl, unable to forget the experience of losing the last by such a thin margin. Those around him for the remainder of his football career will say he is transfixed on the idea of winning another. He’s never been able to get that one yard out of his head, and even now, on two bad legs, nothing will get between him and the Lombardi Trophy.

Not even the almighty Baltimore Ravens.

The 2003 Baltimore Ravens are the best defence in the NFL, but it’s more than just that. They’re historically good. I’ve written an article on how good they are if you need more detail. They're better than their 2000 counterparts, who won the Ravens a Super Bowl, and (unlike the 2000 Ravens) are the best defence in the league by more than a little bit. In terms of EPA/Play, they're just as far ahead of the second place Patriots as the Patriots are ahead of sixth place Miami.

All of this to say that the Ravens are a live bet in this game, despite being led by Anthony Wright, a man who will never be a full time starter before or after this, at QB. This is further evidenced by the fact this game is a pick 'em in Vegas. The Titans come in as one point road favourites, which is essentially the books telling you they have no idea who is going to win.

Even the NFLFastR Win Probability model has this as a very close matchup, with its opinion being split 54-46 in favour of the Titans, but none of these organs can see just how obsessed Steve McNair is with this task.

Steve completes only two passes (in only three attempts) on the first drive, but they account for 31 yards as we march down the field and score a touchdown on our first try. This boosts our estimated WP all the way to 75 percent. The model does not have any faith in the Ravens to overcome a deficit, but it cannot account for what happens next.

Our next drive also gets off to a great start, with its first play being a first down completion to Derrick Mason for eleven yards. If Steve can continue to play this way, this game has the potential to turn into a rout quickly. You don't have to score many points to make an unsurmountable deficit against these 2000s Ravens teams. 14 will be plenty.

The next play is indeed a touchdown. Unfortunately for us, it's a 56 yard pick six to tie the game at seven. Steve can’t get back to make the tackle, and looks to be in serious pain labouring back to try. The Ravens are back from the brink, and have reduced the WP back to a 58-42 split. However, on our next drive, we again have it going. Unbelievably, we're back inside Baltimore territory, again mostly behind Eddie George and the run game.

From here, a first down holding penalty appears to kill our chances. First and 20 against this Ravens team is almost unwinnable, but mostly due to a 13 yard completion to McCareins, we do bounce back to have a fourth and one on the Baltimore 43.

Unbelievably, Jeff Fisher decides to punt this ball.

How could he do this?

This is such an obvious spot to go for it.

I know I promised I wouldn’t get granular on every Jeff Fisher decision, but this is the playoffs. The rules change here. How many chances in Baltimore territory does Jeff think he is going to get? Even if you miss and give the ball to Baltimore on their own 43, Anthony Wright has completed one pass today so far. We're at the end of the first quarter. I’m not exactly quivering in fear.

All of this is without even mentioning that we have the man who’s just been elected league co-MVP (tied for first place with Peyton Manning), who comes with a deadly QB keep that’s almost sure to convert any fourth and one situation.

Jeff Fisher. What are you scared of?

Evidently he's scared of something, as the Titans do punt this ball. The Ravens do end up punting from deep and as a reward for giving the ball away the Titans get the ball back, essentially, right where they had it before.

I swear.

This drive ends in another Steve McNair interception, and the Titans manage one first down for the rest of the half as we go into the break down 10-7.

This is a bad spot to be in. It’s clear that Steve is really struggling out there. How could you not? This Raven defence is almost unassailable in good conditions, and Steve is very far from being in good condition.

You don't want to be behind these Ravens for any stretch of time if you can help it. It's only three, which is why the WP model still gives the Titans a 46% chance to win, but we better come out of half firing.

We don't. Our first drive out of half is an easy three and out in the face of the voracious Ravens defence, but after an easy stop of our own we finally get something going again. We get back into Baltimore territory on the back of Eddie George, who is rewarding Steve for carrying his horrible play all season with a great game at a really great time to have one, and cap it off with a 49 yard touchdown pass to Justin McCareins to take the lead back again 14-10.

From here, both teams go back to trading punts. We are able to score three points off of a Baltimore interception on their own 31, but both teams' offences accomplish nothing. From Steve's touchdown pass (at 8:12 of the third) to now (8:09 of the fourth) they teams share two first downs between them. As the seconds bleed away, Baltimore's chances to win also slip into the cracks, and by now, 8:09 of the fourth, our estimated WP has risen all the way to 83 percent.

From here, the unthinkable happens. Anthony Wright leads a clutch game tying touchdown drive in the fourth quarter of a playoff game. The score, against all odds, is now tied at 17, but this is a His Year article. Our man has played terribly so far, but in the fourth quarter, here he comes to save the day.

Not yet though.

Another interception kills the game winning drive before it gets started. In what was an obvious pass interference under modern rules, Chris McAlister makes a great catch to give his team the chance to win. Anthony Wright can do nothing with it, and so Steve gets another chance, and this one he takes advantage of.

In a fairly boring final drive, where the longest play is a 13 yard completion to Derrick Mason, Steve gets his Titans down the field to the Ravens' 29 yard line, which is more than enough to kick the game winning field goal to take the final chapter of this old AFC Central rivalry (torn apart by the 2002 division realignment) 20-17.

This was a very courageous effort by Steve McNair.

He did not play well at all, but give him a break. Playing on two bad legs, in Baltimore, against what is essentially (but not literally) still a division rival from the old AFC Central, is a nightmare situation to walk into, but despite playing well below his best (easy to do against these Ravens), he got his Titans out of Baltimore with a win. Now we wait to see who we'll be playing in round two.

Why is it always the Patriots?

Like every good story in the AFC in the last 25 years, at some point it has to go through the New England Patriots in a playoff game. Normally, that hurdle is where a good story dies, and we are a fairly prohibitive six point road underdog, but where we have an advantage is in the QB category. We have the MVP on our side, and that is the only thing the Titans do better than the Patriots.

Remember the first time, when it was Steve, Derrick Mason, Drew Bennett, and Justin McCareins trying to beat the New England Patriots alone? No different here, only now our man is on two bad legs, has only played two games since week 14, hasn’t played a great game in months, but is still the only aspect of football at which we are better than the New England Patriots.

No pressure.

The Titans' first drive sets Steve up for no success. The first play is a false start. The third is an illegal use of the hands penalty. It's a three and out for the Titans. In response, Tom Brady throws three passes and the Patriots are up 7-0.

Steve badly needs to respond here, and he does. He still only gets to touch the ball three times, but aided by a roughing the passer penalty, accounts for 53 yards as the Titans score without seeing a third down. Within two plays on their next drive the Patriots are already back in Titan territory, and they convert a fourth and one from the 33 to keep the drive alive, but eventually the drive bogs down to an Adam Vinatieri field goal attempt which misses.

After the missed field goal we get the ball on our 39. This is a good spot to start a drive from, and considering how well we did on our only real chance so far, I wouldn't have bet on a first play interception.

A back breaking interception from Steve gives the Patriots the ball back right after their 11 play missed field goal drive with very minimal rest for the Tennessee defence, and it shows. They're able to force the Patriots to two third downs, including a third and 13 Brady pass that's converted, but can't get off the field as the Patriots score to take a 14-7 lead at the dawn of the second quarter.

Steve has a response to this too.

Jeff Fisher does insist on letting Eddie George touch the ball twice (two plays that only hurt his team’s chances of scoring), but mostly gets out of the way as Steve and Derrick Mason march the ball all the way to the New England 19. The next play is a sack of McNair to bring up third and 11. After a delay of game penalty, it's third and 16 from the 31, but that's okay. After a third down pass to the 28 it's 4th and 13, but this is still easy field goal range right?

Wrong my friend. Way wrong.

The Titans' kicker Gary Anderson has a max range of about 45 yards (back in 2003 this was still acceptable), and the next entry in the play by play data is very telling. Here it is, verbatim:

"PENALTY on TEN-C.Hentrich, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NE 28"

Craig Hentrich is the Titans' punter. The Titans were so certain about punting that they took a delay of game penalty to allow him to move back a little bit. All of this on the New England 28.

Unreal.

I know what you may be thinking. What does a delay of game penalty on Craig Hentrich have to do with a His Year article on Steve McNair? I think it's important to mention all of these things that our subjects (in this case Steve McNair) have no control over, that impact the results of their games. If I did not bring up things like this, you would see a playoff game in which the Titans do not even get to 20 points, and conclude that Steve played badly. You wouldn’t know that he was playing against two coaching staffs at once.

This is an extremely obvious go for it situation, even though it's fourth and 13.

rbdsm's fourth down decision calculator gives the Titans a 13 percent chance of converting this fourth down, which I think is a little low, and it still likes to go for it in this spot. The Titans have the NFL's co-MVP for goodness’ sake. Give him a chance.

Even if we fail, we can't forget we're on the New England 28.

Most kickoff returns in this era get past the 28.

What is Jeff Fisher scared of?

Has he ever elected not to kick off because of the potential of his opponent getting the ball on their own 28? Of course not, because that’s ludicrous, and the same goes here. There is no excuse for a head coach to shoot his own team in the foot in this way.

Nevertheless, he does, and the Patriots get a ball a whopping nine yards further back after a New England bounce on the punt. Great job Jeff. After the first play of the drive is a 13 yard run, he must've been feeling great about himself. Luckily for him, the Patriots do nothing aside from that, and we can forget about it as the Titans get the ball back.

This is where it becomes clear to me that Jeff Fisher feels the need to protect Steve McNair. As we know, the touches have been limited all season (for some reason), but this is extreme. On the ensuing drive, the co-MVP is allowed to drop back just twice (out of eight offensive plays), despite Eddie George not giving anything. Luckily, one of those dropbacks is a 29 yard completion to Derrick Mason that basically gets the Titans into field goal range on its own, but the attempt is blocked, so the score remains 14-7 Patriots. It stays that way as both teams enter the half.

There's only so much you can overcome in a football game. Jeff Fisher and the Titans are constantly shooting themselves in the foot with either silly play calling or special teams lapses and looking to their elite QB to bail them out. Most of the time he can. That's what having the best QB in the NFL does for you, but in the playoffs that starts to give in.

Take this first half for example. Both teams have had one missed field goal. Both teams have had a fourth down decision inside the other team's 35. The Patriots, like a real team, went for it and got it. The Titans, like cowards, punted from the 28. None of this has anything to do with Steve McNair, who aside from his interception, has fought Tom Brady to a draw so far.

Coming into the second half down seven, Steve cannot afford another draw. He has to outplay Tom Brady to give his team any chance of winning. He has to do this without much help from anybody else (except Derrick Mason), with a coaching staff making the wrong decision in every single tight spot, killing their own team’s chances at every available opportunity, and yet it's somehow still his legacy that's on the line here.

The life of a QB is an unfair existence.

The Titans' first touch of the second half still sees them down seven after barely holding New England to a punt. The first two plays are each runs and it's immediately third and long again. At this point watching the game back, after a whole season of this nonsense, I'm screaming at the Titans to stop handing the ball off.

Let the MVP win the game for you. It shouldn’t be that hard, and he tries, throwing for a first down on this and two other third downs on this drive alone. This was not easy, but the game is tied as Steve throws a third and goal touchdown pass to Derrick Mason.

The Patriots' next offensive drive ends with a turnover on the Tennessee 47. The Titans have great field position and are in a very good position to take the lead of this game. This first down play is another where I just cannot describe what happens adequately. I have to let the play by play entry speak for itself: "F.Wycheck sacked at TEN 37 for -10 yards."

Frank Wycheck.

Frank Wycheck sacked for a ten yard loss.

Why would you let the NFL MVP, leader in every significant QB stat, Steve McNair throw the ball when you can have Frank Wycheck do it? Am I right?

It's beginning to personally offend me how little Jeff Fisher believes in his QB that just led his team to a 12 win season with a top five offence despite having to carry around Eddie George, who at this point is completely cooked, in addition to the harmful offensive play calling, and everything else Steve had to deal with all season.

I understand the bad legs. I understand Steve has gotten a bit turnover prone since the injuries have crept back up. I don't care. This is a playoff game. Don't have Frank Wycheck throwing your passes. I'm beginning to appreciate the greatness of Steve McNair even further if he had to carry this level of decision making around on his back for an entire career.

Of course this promising drive is now doomed to end with a punt, and so the Patriots get the ball to start the fourth quarter. Luckily for Fisher, the Titans are again able to stop the Patriots, but have to bend all the way to their own 39 to do it. As a result, we have to start on our own seven, and after running six offensive plays, with just one of them being a pass attempt, we give the Patriots the ball again.

The dam cannot hold forever as the Patriots require just one first down to get into field goal range from their starting field position and they do convert, scoring a field goal to take a 17-14 lead at 4:11 of the fourth.

Four minutes and eleven seconds for Steve McNair to end the Patriots' 12 game win streak, end this dynasty before it starts, and send the Titans on the road either for a third go round in Indianapolis or a matchup with Trent Green in KC.

Finally unconstrained by the need to carry along a run game that’s nothing more than an anchor around his neck for an entire season (Eddie George runs generated a 19% success rate in this game. Awful), Steve brings the Titans' offence to life. Despite his visible limp, within three plays the ball is on the Patriot 40. At the two minute warning, it's 2nd and three from the New England 33. Recall from earlier that this is not field goal range. It's not even really close.

From here, there's an interesting intentional grounding penalty. I'm not quite sure if it would've been called in 2023, but it certainly was in 2003, so now it's third and 13 from the 43. The next play is a 13 yard completion to turn this into a fourth and manageable, but hang on. Offensive holding on the play takes the Titans all the way back to third and 23 their own 47.

This is looking bleak, but what is exceptional to me is that the Patriots still feel the need to send the house at Steve, clearly intimidated by what he can do with time in the pocket, even in this dire a situation, and to their credit he proves them right. Steve unleashes a pass under heavy pressure that has no business being as accurate as it is that allows Drew Bennett to get his feet in bounds for an eleven yard completion.

Now faced with fourth and twelve, both teams are set to do the same thing again. Steve will throw this pass with a defender right in his face, hitting him before he even completes his drop, but he does it again. He throws another pass that has no right to be so accurate with the pressure right in his face. It goes right to Drew Bennett's hands.

Despite a bit of contact (that probably would've been called under modern rules), it's not an understatement to say this is a ball that should've been caught. Unfortunately for the story of Steve McNair, the ball bounces off of Drew Bennett's hands.

Turnover on downs.

Drew Bennett is a pretty good little receiver. He’s going to get even better and become a top of the line receiver in 2004, but this is not 2004 yet. If Drew Bennett had been Reggie Wayne, it's first and ten from the New England 15 with 1:38 to go.

Just keep that in your mind when you think back on the career of Steve McNair.

There were many chances for the NFL to kill the Patriots dynasty before it got started, but looking back on it, this is the best one. If not for the punt from the 28. If not for Jeff Fisher and the copious amount of rush calls. If not for the intentional grounding penalty. If not for Drew Bennett, maybe the 2003 Patriots fade away into the history books as a 14 win one and done playoff team, and where does Steve McNair go from there?

The AFC Championship game would be in Indianapolis. Steve has won there before. Can he do it again? Tennessee Titan fans like to claim that if not for Drew Bennett, this was their season to win the Super Bowl. I certainly can’t disagree that this is a ball that should’ve been caught and a game that should’ve been won.

I feel so bad for Steve in the wake of this loss.

This was a great playoff game, the final great playoff game in the old school trench war sense of that phrase, but because of the never before seen playoff shootout between Peyton Manning and Trent Green that happens just the next day, and kickstarts a new era of playoff football, this game is wholly overshadowed and not remembered for the great showing it was. If you were following the NFL in 2003, you remember Peyton Manning vs Trent Green, but did you even remember this game happened?

That’s the first reason I feel bad for Steve.

Number two is that Steve outplayed Tom Brady, and not by a little bit either. Steve generated 0.17 EPA/Play, compared to Tom's 0.02. 53% of Steve's plays were successful, compared to just one third of Tom's. Tom also got much more help than Steve did, mostly because his coach was not Jeff Fisher.

There is only so much you can overcome in a football game. For Steve McNair, it’s more like there’s only so much you can overcome in a football career.

Quick aside: I had to stop writing in the wake of this game out of pity for Steve McNair. I felt so bad for him that I just couldn't continue.

To be clear, I'm a 24 year old man in Canada, who is a lifelong hater of the Tennessee Titans (being a fan of a division rival). This story of McNair trying, with two bad legs, to carry a team that was kicking and screaming and lashing against him to the promised land, the place he hasn’t been able to forget about ever since he was there the last time, and that he’s given everything for, only to ultimately come up short, due primarily to factors out of his control, got to me so much that I lost motivation to write about Peyton Manning and Trent Green.

I eventually did finish that article, and here I am finishing this one, but this story got to me in a way no other (except Josh McCown) ever has.

Steve McNair has been dead since July 4, 2009, so my pity won't even symbolically have any impact on him. I still cannot help it. Be it Jeff Fisher, or Craig Hentrich, or Eddie George, or Drew Bennett, or anybody else. If anybody had stepped up to help him today the Titans would've made the AFC Championship again, and maybe he would’ve been just the second black quarterback ever to win a Super Bowl. Instead, we would have to wait all the way until Russell Wilson in 2013 to reach that milestone.

McNair is not done as a contender in the AFC, but his best chance is behind him.

Steve left all of his greatness on that field in Foxborough. After a broken sternum takes him out of most of the 2004 season, Steve does get back for 2005, but it’s not the same.

It will never be the same.

In the 2006 offseason, Steve and the Titans go through some weird shenanigans including the team barring him from working out at their facility, claiming that with his long injury history, a potential injury in practice would harm his trade value, but also refusing to trade him.

This was all a scam to get Steve to accept a lowball contract renegotiation. What a reward for a man who’s given everything for this team for ten years, but just like when all those college teams were giving him offers conditional on him changing position, he stood up for himself and refused, and good for him for doing it. The league eventually stepped in to mandate a trade to the Baltimore Ravens, so Steve would play his last solid years in the league there, and not for the Titans.

By this point, he was much more a game manager than the play maker he’d been just three years before, and it was never coming back. In the end, Steve would never show anything like his 2003 form, beforehand or afterwards, but in that one glorious season, he joined the elite group of humans who get to call themselves MVP, and the even smaller group of humans to be able to say they were the very best QB in the NFL.

Even when a Netflix documentary comes out that buries this fact and pretends it never happened, don’t forget it.

Don’t forget Steve McNair’s Year.