Thanks, Robbie, for sharing Steve's story; I wasn't alive during his playing days and didn't know much about him until your last couple post and your 2003 AFC article. I am wondering what your thoughts on him not being a Hall-Of-Famer? I think from a play perspective it a similar quandary to Trent Green where he had 4 or so good to great seasons but nothing much outside of that. Steve does have the breaking barriers aspect which gives him an extra boost and actually has a higher adjusted Elo than Big Ben (https://www.nfeloapp.com/qb-rankings/era-adjusted/).
You weren't alive to see Steve McNair? Awful smart for your age then. Thank you very much for being here to learn his story.
I love that you bring up Big Ben here, because Steve McNair is better than him without question. In fact, Ben will answer a lot of questions. If he makes the Hall of Fame, so should Trent Green, Steve McNair, Jim Everett, Tommy Kramer, Tony Romo, Bernie Kosar, Russell Wilson, etc.. All these QBs are wishy washy on the Hall of Fame, and all are better than Ben Roethlisberger. If Ben makes it they will be definitively better than a HOF QB, meaning they all deserve to go in.
I don't think he's going to make it, so I'm not sure this comparison is valid. I searched for a better one. My QB stat lists go back to 1981, so who is the worst QB since 1981 to have made the Hall of Fame?
It's Jim Kelly, a man who played 11 seasons, made my top ten list just six times, and was top five just twice. This is almost certainly a man who should not be in the Hall of Fame, but since he's a modern era Hall of Famer, he is the bar. Can Steve clear this bar?
I'd love to say yes, but I think he comes just short. In ten seasons, Steve was a top ten QB just four times (plus one 11th), but also made the top five twice, and did spend a season at the top, which is a key thing for me. Unfortunately, I think this falls just barely short of Jim Kelly, and therefore just barely short of the Hall of Fame. However, if someone undeserving like Big Ben gets in, this bar moves and Steve is now definitively above it. My opinion on this can change in the future.
Compare Steve's resume to somebody like Trent Green's (7 full seasons, four top five placements, albeit with no number one), or Jim Everett's (ten full seasons, six top ten placements with four top fives plus a first place in 1989), or even Tony Romo's (eight full seasons, six top tens and two top fives), and you can see that we have bigger HoF snubs to worry about based strictly on the on-the-field play, but the things other than the play on the field are such a big part of the Steve McNair story. That's why the football story came after the life story on here.
I went over in the post how much Steve McNair did to buck the NFL trends that were happening. It's very possible that if he were alive when he came HoF eligible, that they would've honoured him with a plaque strictly to commend what he'd done for the game, even if he'd be the worst player at his position in the Hall of Fame. They'd done it before, but with Steve laying dead there's no point in doing that.
Almost certainly without all of his injury issues, he would've been a Hall of Fame player. The heartbreaking question is: if he'd been in different circumstances, would he have felt the need to put himself through so much? If he didn't feel the need to play hurt so often, would he have been a Hall of Fame player? I think the answer to that question is yes, but there are things more important than a Hall of Fame plaque.
The influence of Steve McNair is still being felt in the game today. Like I said before, if you exclude all QBs who can be described as any of black, mobile, FCS, or raw, who would you have left? None of these men have to jump through hoops just for being who they are. The NFL has become who they are. That's Steve's legacy to me. He doesn't need a Hall of Fame plaque.
What makes you say all those guys are better than Big Ben? He is probably over-rated due to his 3 AFC championships and 2 SBs and longevity, but I never questioned his Hall of Fame status. Maybe I have been conditioned to be too lenient on what's a Hall of Famer. I also find it interesting you didn't mention Philip Rivers; is he a lock or best of the rest in your mind?
I trust you are pulling stuff from thin air but if you are in the sharing mood I would definitely like a look. I am guessing the numbers are based on something similar to TANY/A but with your own modifications.
I didn't mention Rivers because he isn't wishy washy. He's an automatic Hall of Fame player. He played just as long as Ben and was only outside the top ten five times (2007, 2012, 2016, 2019, 2020), and the two coming right on the end I don't really count anyway.
Ben on the other hand gets a little bit of the Tom Brady rub in that he had great seasons, and he also won. Everybody just forgets that these two things never happened at once.
For instance, Ben's 2008 was his worst season as a pro. He was a negative EPA/Play and a negative CPOE guy that year. He destroyed a mediocre 8-8 Chargers team, and struggled mightily in the AFC Championship. Luckily, he struggled less than Joe Flacco, so he won, and in the Super Bowl he allowed a Cardinals team that should've been blown out to just hang around and hang around to the point where he needed a game winning drive to beat them.
Ben gets between no and little credit for this SB from me. If not for 2015 Peyton Manning, this would be the worst (non 2000 Ravens) QB to ever win the Super Bowl, but 2015 Peyton took some of the heat off him.
On the whole, Ben's 0.104 career playoff EPA/Play means he was not a particularly good playoff player (standards get higher there). It's better than playoff chokers Andrew Luck, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Andy Dalton, but it's not better than anybody notable, so his resume would have to lean on the regular season.
He also falls short there. In his 17 seasons, Ben was top ten just nine times, with four of those appearances being ninths and tenths. I will give him credit that his legacy is really bolstered with his only three top five seasons, all coming right near the end (2014, 2017, 2018), which was a really good save from a man who had real potential of ending up the most overrated player in NFL history.
But once again, Trent Green made the top five four times IN A ROW. Three top five finishes is a really low number, and likely not indicative of a Hall of Fame calibre player. That's the same number Carson Palmer has (2005, 2006, 2015). Is anybody clamouring to put Carson Palmer in the Hall of Fame?
What I'm getting at is that Ben' (who is actually a lot like Carson Palmer) track record of great play is actually really thin. Much thinner than people remember. If you take away Ben's best three seasons, his best finish in my ranking is seventh. Doing the same exercise with Phillip Rivers still leaves you with a leftover second place finish. Doing the same exercise with Trent Green leaves you with a top five finish left. Even doing it with the seriously limited career of Steve McNair still leaves you with an eighth place finish, and Steve had seven fewer seasons to try to pump in good stats.
On a per season basis (ignoring longevity entirely, which is how I do my all time rankings. A lot of people don't like that approach, but I'm a peak performance guy), I have 41 people ahead of Ben Roethlisberger, 15 of them from his own era. That's just too many for a Hall of Famer in my opinion.
Really good points. I just looked it up and found it crazy that Kirk Cousins has the same number of +114 ANY/A seasons as Big Ben!
Regarding your ranking methodology, I don't mind a more peak based approach. I think any list with clear and followed criteria
is a good one. While I haven't done the exercise yet, I think a good way to do balance peak, and longevity is to rank player based on either their best 5 or 8 season stretch. Similar to how a team drafts a QB and then give him a 5-year extension after the 3rd year. This way you reward a player who for he was at their best but also credit those who were consistently at the top of the league.
Thanks, Robbie, for sharing Steve's story; I wasn't alive during his playing days and didn't know much about him until your last couple post and your 2003 AFC article. I am wondering what your thoughts on him not being a Hall-Of-Famer? I think from a play perspective it a similar quandary to Trent Green where he had 4 or so good to great seasons but nothing much outside of that. Steve does have the breaking barriers aspect which gives him an extra boost and actually has a higher adjusted Elo than Big Ben (https://www.nfeloapp.com/qb-rankings/era-adjusted/).
You weren't alive to see Steve McNair? Awful smart for your age then. Thank you very much for being here to learn his story.
I love that you bring up Big Ben here, because Steve McNair is better than him without question. In fact, Ben will answer a lot of questions. If he makes the Hall of Fame, so should Trent Green, Steve McNair, Jim Everett, Tommy Kramer, Tony Romo, Bernie Kosar, Russell Wilson, etc.. All these QBs are wishy washy on the Hall of Fame, and all are better than Ben Roethlisberger. If Ben makes it they will be definitively better than a HOF QB, meaning they all deserve to go in.
I don't think he's going to make it, so I'm not sure this comparison is valid. I searched for a better one. My QB stat lists go back to 1981, so who is the worst QB since 1981 to have made the Hall of Fame?
It's Jim Kelly, a man who played 11 seasons, made my top ten list just six times, and was top five just twice. This is almost certainly a man who should not be in the Hall of Fame, but since he's a modern era Hall of Famer, he is the bar. Can Steve clear this bar?
I'd love to say yes, but I think he comes just short. In ten seasons, Steve was a top ten QB just four times (plus one 11th), but also made the top five twice, and did spend a season at the top, which is a key thing for me. Unfortunately, I think this falls just barely short of Jim Kelly, and therefore just barely short of the Hall of Fame. However, if someone undeserving like Big Ben gets in, this bar moves and Steve is now definitively above it. My opinion on this can change in the future.
Compare Steve's resume to somebody like Trent Green's (7 full seasons, four top five placements, albeit with no number one), or Jim Everett's (ten full seasons, six top ten placements with four top fives plus a first place in 1989), or even Tony Romo's (eight full seasons, six top tens and two top fives), and you can see that we have bigger HoF snubs to worry about based strictly on the on-the-field play, but the things other than the play on the field are such a big part of the Steve McNair story. That's why the football story came after the life story on here.
I went over in the post how much Steve McNair did to buck the NFL trends that were happening. It's very possible that if he were alive when he came HoF eligible, that they would've honoured him with a plaque strictly to commend what he'd done for the game, even if he'd be the worst player at his position in the Hall of Fame. They'd done it before, but with Steve laying dead there's no point in doing that.
Almost certainly without all of his injury issues, he would've been a Hall of Fame player. The heartbreaking question is: if he'd been in different circumstances, would he have felt the need to put himself through so much? If he didn't feel the need to play hurt so often, would he have been a Hall of Fame player? I think the answer to that question is yes, but there are things more important than a Hall of Fame plaque.
The influence of Steve McNair is still being felt in the game today. Like I said before, if you exclude all QBs who can be described as any of black, mobile, FCS, or raw, who would you have left? None of these men have to jump through hoops just for being who they are. The NFL has become who they are. That's Steve's legacy to me. He doesn't need a Hall of Fame plaque.
BTW I can share these back to 1981 lists with you if you'd like, so you know I'm not just pulling them from thin air.
What makes you say all those guys are better than Big Ben? He is probably over-rated due to his 3 AFC championships and 2 SBs and longevity, but I never questioned his Hall of Fame status. Maybe I have been conditioned to be too lenient on what's a Hall of Famer. I also find it interesting you didn't mention Philip Rivers; is he a lock or best of the rest in your mind?
I trust you are pulling stuff from thin air but if you are in the sharing mood I would definitely like a look. I am guessing the numbers are based on something similar to TANY/A but with your own modifications.
I didn't mention Rivers because he isn't wishy washy. He's an automatic Hall of Fame player. He played just as long as Ben and was only outside the top ten five times (2007, 2012, 2016, 2019, 2020), and the two coming right on the end I don't really count anyway.
Ben on the other hand gets a little bit of the Tom Brady rub in that he had great seasons, and he also won. Everybody just forgets that these two things never happened at once.
For instance, Ben's 2008 was his worst season as a pro. He was a negative EPA/Play and a negative CPOE guy that year. He destroyed a mediocre 8-8 Chargers team, and struggled mightily in the AFC Championship. Luckily, he struggled less than Joe Flacco, so he won, and in the Super Bowl he allowed a Cardinals team that should've been blown out to just hang around and hang around to the point where he needed a game winning drive to beat them.
Ben gets between no and little credit for this SB from me. If not for 2015 Peyton Manning, this would be the worst (non 2000 Ravens) QB to ever win the Super Bowl, but 2015 Peyton took some of the heat off him.
On the whole, Ben's 0.104 career playoff EPA/Play means he was not a particularly good playoff player (standards get higher there). It's better than playoff chokers Andrew Luck, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Andy Dalton, but it's not better than anybody notable, so his resume would have to lean on the regular season.
He also falls short there. In his 17 seasons, Ben was top ten just nine times, with four of those appearances being ninths and tenths. I will give him credit that his legacy is really bolstered with his only three top five seasons, all coming right near the end (2014, 2017, 2018), which was a really good save from a man who had real potential of ending up the most overrated player in NFL history.
But once again, Trent Green made the top five four times IN A ROW. Three top five finishes is a really low number, and likely not indicative of a Hall of Fame calibre player. That's the same number Carson Palmer has (2005, 2006, 2015). Is anybody clamouring to put Carson Palmer in the Hall of Fame?
What I'm getting at is that Ben' (who is actually a lot like Carson Palmer) track record of great play is actually really thin. Much thinner than people remember. If you take away Ben's best three seasons, his best finish in my ranking is seventh. Doing the same exercise with Phillip Rivers still leaves you with a leftover second place finish. Doing the same exercise with Trent Green leaves you with a top five finish left. Even doing it with the seriously limited career of Steve McNair still leaves you with an eighth place finish, and Steve had seven fewer seasons to try to pump in good stats.
On a per season basis (ignoring longevity entirely, which is how I do my all time rankings. A lot of people don't like that approach, but I'm a peak performance guy), I have 41 people ahead of Ben Roethlisberger, 15 of them from his own era. That's just too many for a Hall of Famer in my opinion.
In order (best to worst), those 15 people from Ben's era are:
Peyton Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Tom Brady (this rank could get me in trouble lol)
Kurt Warner
Philip Rivers
Trent Green (so could this one if they haven't read my Trent Green stuff)
Daunte Culpepper
Tony Romo
Dak Prescott
Russell Wilson
Matt Ryan
Kirk Cousins
Chad Pennington (I did say I was ignoring longevity)
Carson Palmer
No Steve McNair here, because his prime was over when Ben was drafted, but he's above him on my all-time ranking too.
Really good points. I just looked it up and found it crazy that Kirk Cousins has the same number of +114 ANY/A seasons as Big Ben!
Regarding your ranking methodology, I don't mind a more peak based approach. I think any list with clear and followed criteria
is a good one. While I haven't done the exercise yet, I think a good way to do balance peak, and longevity is to rank player based on either their best 5 or 8 season stretch. Similar to how a team drafts a QB and then give him a 5-year extension after the 3rd year. This way you reward a player who for he was at their best but also credit those who were consistently at the top of the league.
On a similar note, your approach reminds me of the gray ink test Chae Stuart did on football perspective (https://www.footballperspective.com/any-a-and-the-hof-gray-ink-test-part-2/). However, your approach seems to more based on top 5 performance rather than top 10.