The Era of the Big Four Pt. 1: A Brave New World. 2003

2003 is a new world for the AFC. The conference needs a new top QB. The first part of the story that ensued is the battle for the top spot

Anything can happen in the NFL. Even the most sure seeming things can be ripped out from under you in an instant. On August 23, 2003, a little known Giants Linebacker named Brandon Short would change the course of NFL history, and set into motion an era of AFC football dominated by four quarterbacks: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees into Philip Rivers in San Diego, and Ben Roethlisberger.

The 'big four' would act as a glass ceiling for any AFC team looking to make any serious noise from 2003-2020. Seventeen years worth of domination out of just four people, and it all was enabled on August 23, 2003.

On this date, in a week three preseason game between the Giants and the Jets, Giants LB Brandon Short would sack Jets' QB Chad Pennington in a manner that would cause him to fall on both arms, and fracture his left wrist.

Just a few moments earlier, Chad Pennington had still been the most promising young QB in the NFL, having led the AFC (and the league) in virtually every important QB stat in 2002 (EPA/Play and ANY/A, to name a few). There is no doubt that if Chad had been able to start every game of the 2002 season (he started the year as the Jets' backup) then he, and not Rich Gannon, would've won 2002 NFL MVP.

In large part due to Chad, who had singlehandedly eliminated Tom Brady, Jay Fiedler, Drew Bledsoe, and Peyton Manning from the playoffs in 2002 (read more about his amazing rookie season here if you're interested in how he did this), it was the last year of the AFC's old guard. The conference now laid wide open for whoever wanted to take it, and most people were betting on Chad to be the one to take the dominant position in the conference. Similar to Patrick Mahomes in 2018, nobody knew how for real Chad was, but you cannot have a year as great as Chad's 2002, then or now, by accident. He had all the potential to take the bull by the horns and drag the AFC into its next era.

That is, until August 23, 2003.

Chad now has to spend the first seven weeks of 2003 recovering from a fractured left wrist instead of tearing up the league, but that's alright. He'll be back. In the meantime, we need some new challengers to the AFC throne, so let's look around the league and give some introductions.

A good candidate to remain on top is the AFC's second best QB in 2002, and its Super Bowl representative. The only man who Chad and the Jets could not topple, 2002 NFL MVP Rich Gannon.

Now 38 years old, age is not on Rich Gannon's side. There is no potential for him to dominate the next era like there is for Chad or for some later candidates on this list, but he's still surrounded by the same excellent Oakland Raider offence that allowed him to have his best career season at the age of 37. In order to remain on top, Rich will need to maintain the same form as last year, and hope for slightly better form from the Raiders' defence, which ranked 12th in 2002 in EPA/Play allowed.

Rich was certainly great in 2002, but if you tell me I can't have Chad to dominate the next era of AFC football, my pick will have to be Trent Green.

Robbed by a knee injury of his chance to be the face of the Greatest Show on Turf, Trent played like an elite QB in his five starts in place of an injured Kurt Warner in 2000, finishing third in the league in ANY/A (behind Kurt Warner and Brian Griese that year) and seventh in the league in EPA/Play. This proved more than enough to get Trent a starting job in 2001 for the Chiefs, and after one year of struggling he had yet another breakout in 2002.

If not for Chad, Trent Green would've been the story of 2002, as he finished second in the AFC (and the NFL) in EPA/Play and in ANY/A, the two most important QB stats available in 2002, beaten in both only by Chad Pennington. The elephant in the room (and why Trent did not get an MVP vote, despite being one of the best QBs in the NFL) is that the Chiefs went just 8-8 and missed the playoffs in 2002, but don't blame this on Trent.

In all but two of the Chiefs' losses in 2002, they scored at least 24 points, and were able to win just twice while not scoring 24 points. This is due to the Chiefs' pitiful defence, which ranked dead last in 2002. If they're able to improve on the defensive side even a little bit, for reference, say they finish 20th in 2003, then watch out for the Chiefs.

After a very uninspiring start to his career (I give him very little credit for the Super Bowl run in 1999) after being a fifth overall pick to the Oilers in 1995, Steve McNair has finally found his footing as a great NFL starter.

In each of the prior two seasons, he has outdone new division rival Peyton Manning, but now being in a division together after the 2002 realignment means Steve will have to stay on his toes to keep Peyton behind. Not a very inspiring choice, but at only 30, Steve is the youngest option we've covered so far. He's got plenty of years left to impose his will on the conference.

Next on the list of potential options (and the last true contender) is Payton Manning of the Indianapolis Colts.

I know Peyton has great stuff in him. I've seen it, having led the AFC in EPA/Play in both 1999 and 2000, but Peyton has endured two quite bad seasons in a row in 2001 and 2002, including a particularly uninspiring 0.067 EPA/Play in 2001, and has been passed in the QB hierarchy by Rich Gannon, Steve McNair, Chad Pennington, Trent Green, and perhaps even Jay Fiedler. Out of all the QBs mentioned so far, Peyton has the most to prove in 2003. It's him that's gone the longest without showing his top form, but it's in there, so I have to include him on this top contenders list.

As it stands, the 2003 season is about to begin, and the AFC's throne sits vacant. There are five QBs in prime position to take it: Chad Pennington (although he'll start the season injured), Rich Gannon, Trent Green, Steve McNair, and Peyton Manning, with my money going on either Chad or Trent, and if both of those two don't pan out then maybe Peyton.

In week one, we already have an important game for position in the hierarchy, as the Raiders travel to Nashville to rematch the 2002 AFC Championship game against the Tennessee Titans. Gannon plays good in this game, but McNair plays great, as he generates 0.25 EPA/Play compared to Gannon's 0.15 in a 25-20 Titans win.

This is an important win for McNair. There is no better way to take yourself to the top than to outplay the men you're trying to pass, and Steve did that in spades today, but he has no time to rest on his laurels, as in week two the Titans have to travel to Indianapolis to take on Peyton and the Colts on the road, in yet another important early season matchup for AFC supremacy.

Coming into this week two game, Peyton also has something to prove. His last two seasons have not exactly been inspiring, and after a not so great performance in week one (scoring just nine points against Cleveland), people could be starting to wonder if 2001 and 2002 Peyton is just who Peyton is. It's easy to come back from one down year. It's tougher to come back from two. This is a forgotten performance, but week two of the 2003 season against the Titans is where Peyton Manning cements himself as an elite QB that's here to stay.

You've heard of beating the man you're trying to pass. How about beating him by so much he's taken out in the fourth?

Behind Peyton's 0.21 EPA/Play in only 24 pass attempts, the Colts embarrass the Titans 33-7. McNair is held to a very bad -0.28 EPA/Play by a Colts defence that would go on to rank just 23rd at season's end. Peyton has definitively proven who the king of the AFC South is, and while the Titans will get another chance in week 14, does anybody even care to see that game after this performance?

In non contender news, Jake Plummer of the Denver Broncos has just had an astounding 0.62 EPA/Play performance in a week two rout over the San Diego Chargers. If he can keep that up over the course of the season, he may belong on our contenders list.

In week three, Jake does do it again. He generates north of 0.6 EPA/Play for the second week in a row (something even Patrick Mahomes has never done). Only this time, he thoroughly outplays Rich Gannon, whose season (and as it turns out, career) is falling apart. After that initial good performance in week one against the Titans, Gannon has been stonewalled by both the Bengals and Broncos in weeks two and three. I don't see enough to take him off the contender list just yet, but if this continues he will not last the full season as a real contender.

Luckily for him, in week four the Chargers are coming to Oakland, led by young QB Drew Brees. In this game, Gannon will show out, bringing the Raiders back from 14 points down at the six minute mark of the fourth quarter to an OT win over a very game Chargers team 34-31. Just as I was starting to doubt him, the old MVP showed me that he still has plenty of magic left in him. You win Rich. I won't take you off the contender list.

Through four weeks of the year, Peyton Manning and Trent Green have been leading their teams to blowout after blowout. Steve McNair has been up and down, but mostly up since the Indianapolis debacle, and Rich Gannon has been mostly down. I stop here, at the four week mark, to address the very large elephant in the corner of the room.

I've mentioned Drew Brees. I've mentioned Jake Plummer, and most other new AFC QBs that will go on to be important players in our story, but there is another young QB in the AFC I haven't mentioned yet, and honestly it's because he hasn't been that worthy of mention. Through four weeks of the season, he sits behind such innocuous names as David Carr, Jon Kitna, and Tommy Maddox in the EPA/Play rankings, but in week five of the 2003 NFL season, he's about to have his coming out party.

Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce to you Mr Tom Brady, of the New England Patriots.

Tom has won a Super Bowl already, but in no way was he seen as great QB material at the beginning of 2003. He won a Super Bowl despite generating 0.02 EPA/Play (basically zero) in 2001, which is well below average, even for the time. In addition to being outplayed by Jay Fiedler, Rich Gannon, and Kordell Stewart on the way to the game, Tom did nothing in the Super Bowl. He also did nothing in the Patriots' 2002 Super Bowl defence, being comfortably surpassed by Chad Pennington for the best young QB in his own AFC East division, and only marginally improving on his 2001 performance. In case anybody was wondering why Chad is on the contenders list and Brady is not, that's why.

All of that said, this week five game is where all of that changes.

In week five, Tom Brady and the Patriots host Steve McNair and the Tennessee Titans. For the first time in Tom's career, in a big time game against a big time opponent (recall Tom got outplayed in every important Patriots game on the way to the 2001 Super Bowl), he's going to show what he's really made of.

After both teams traded field goals in their first three possessions, the Titans have a 6-0 lead (New England's attempt was missed). No problem, Brady uncorks a 58 yard touchdown pass to Troy Brown for a 7-6 lead. After finally getting a stop, Brady gets the Patriots right back to the Titans' 29 yard line on fourth and two. In 2003, this is almost always a 47 yard field goal try, but Bill Belichick decides to go for this, and Tom takes a crushing sack.

Following this, the teams trade three and outs. The Patriots do get one drive going, but it ends with another missed field goal attempt. This all ends at 2:56 left in the second quarter, when McNair throws a 43 yard pass, which takes the Titans all the way to the one yard line. Two plays later, and the Titans have a 13-7 lead. After the next Patriots drive ends with yet another crushing Brady sack, McNair gets the Titans into field goal range again before the half ends, but the attempt is missed. At the half, it's 13-7 Titans.

This is not looking good for the Patriots. They are currently 2-2, and with the Dolphins at 3-1 following a victory today behind a healthy Jay Fiedler, the Patriots cannot afford a 2-3 start. The Jets are currently 0-4 behind Vinny Testaverde, but they were able to catch up last year once Chad got into the lineup. Who's to say they can't do it again? This is all to say that at this point, halftime of week five against the Tennessee Titans, the Patriots are liable to miss the playoffs for the second year in a row. Looking back with hindsight, that seems like a ludicrous thing to say.

Hindsight knows what Tom Brady is about to do.

What Tom Brady does is come out in the second half and lead the Patriots to a score every time they touch the ball. All of this while Steve McNair is doing exactly the same thing on the opposite side. This game goes all the way down to the wire, but ends on a crucial McNair pick six at 2:01 of the fourth. The New England Patriots take this game 38-30.

This is just the second time in Tom's career the Patriots have won while having 30 points scored on them. In the prior two years, it's almost been an auto-loss if the other squad hits that mark. For the first time in his career, he played like a great QB. Don't get me wrong, he's had great games, but any random QB can have a great game. To be a great QB, you have to play great with another great QB on the opposing sideline.

Speaking of which, Steve McNair's performance gets marginalized in this game because it's remembered by everybody as Tom Brady's coming out party, but it takes two to tango. Steve came into this game with a 3-1 record, and had to keep winning to keep up with Peyton and the Colts, who were reeling off blowout wins left and right. Under all of this pressure, Steve came out firing too. He also led his team to a score at every time of asking in the second half, aside from the very last one.

Steve also did this against the Patriots defence, which would go on to rank 2nd in the NFL in 2003. He did it with no help from his rushing attack, which was operating at a 28% success rate unlike Tom's, which ran a very healthy 54% success rate in this game. In short, Tom had a lot more help than Steve, which in the end is why he got the win, but in this game these two QBs proved every bit the other's equal.

As such, we have a new member of the contenders list. At last everybody, welcome Tom Brady.

Alas, even with all that excitement, we are still not done with week five. Throughout this series, I typically will not touch games outside the AFC, but one of the other contenders is about to have his career defining performance.

For a man that will go on to win two Super Bowls, countless playoff games, and however much more Peyton Manning won, I will argue that the performance he's most remembered for happens right now. How much of a coincidence is it that it happens one day after one of Tom Brady's first great games?

In week five, it's a marquee Monday night matchup between Peyton and his Colts and the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Remember when they used to put the big games on Monday nights?

There's a lot I could say about this game, about how the Colts could do nothing in the whole first half and entered the half down 21-0, but I argue the story really starts when the Colts reach the mythical zero percent chance of victory.

It's like an inside joke on this blog that the zero percent chance of victory is more of a blessing than a curse. We keep finding times that it's overcome, but anyways. There's 4:54 left in this game. The score is 35-14 in favour of the Buccaneers. The Colts chance of winning (according to NFLFastR's Win Probability model, as always) is zero percent. Peyton has just thrown a pick six to put the nail in the Colts' coffin. Surely now they're about to drop to 4-1, but thanks to the Titans' loss yesterday (thanks Tom), the Colts will retain a comfortable lead in the AFC South.

The Colts show a little bit of life with a kickoff return all the way to the Bucs' 12, but it still moves their Win Probability (WP) from zero to zero. The Colts do themselves no further favours by taking a full minute to score from this position, but they do eventually score, moving the board to 35-21, and their WP to ... zero percent with 3:37 to go.

The Colts then get extremely lucky. They recover an onside kick. Don't get me wrong, this is perhaps the most perfect onside kick I've ever seen, but it is still very unlikely to recover one. Alas, they have and the Colts are back to life. Their WP has now jumped to two percent. Funnily enough, the Colts score quicker from their own 42 than from the Bucs' 12, taking just 59 seconds to cut the deficit to seven. This is great and all, but with just one timeout remaining at the 2:38 mark, the Colts are forced to kick onside again.

This time they don't recover. The Buccaneers get the ball at the Colts' 45. With one timeout plus the two minute warning, if the Colts can stop the Bucs here, they'll get the ball back with around 1:15 left to go. After the punt they'll have about one minute to score yet again. This might be a good time to remind you that this is the Buccaneers' defence we're talking about here. You know, the same one that carried them all the way to the Super Bowl last year? The one that'll go on to rank 5th in the league this year? That's the one.

After one stop, the Colts use their last timeout. After the second, the Colts get an unbelievable stroke of luck. The Buccaneers take an unnecessary roughness penalty, after the play so the clock will stop, but before the two minute warning. This effectively gives the Colts another timeout, while moving the punt 15 yards backwards. It's the worst thing that could've happened to the Buccaneers.

You never know what may have happened, but the Colts now get the ball on their own 15, and take a minute and three seconds to score yet another touchdown. Roughly the same amount of time they would've had to score if not for the Tampa Bay penalty. You never know what may happen in alternate scenarios, but I'm sure it gave Bucs fans something to think about.

Amazingly, a zero percent chance at victory has been converted into an overtime in just four and a half minutes. Do we have any doubt what happens here? Peyton drives the Colts down the field easily and they take a 38-35 win in an unbelievable football game.

This is the most incredible thing I've ever seen. This game happened 20 years ago and I still can't believe it. Peyton Manning had to take on one of the best defences in football (think of them like the 2022 New York Jets) and not just score touchdowns but score them quickly not once not twice but three times in a row, and he did. Back to back to back touchdown drives each lasting just one minute is just incredible. In this era, Peyton Manning is a different species to the rest of us.

I'm almost convinced to make the first visit to tier one based only on this game, but I'll refrain for now. Just know Peyton Manning is certainly over his bad years in 2001 and 2002, and is right at the top of the contenders list.

It's almost as if the league was tired out by all the week five excitement, because week six is one devoid of much action, outside of the Colts receiving their first loss, despite a pretty good Peyton performance, but in week seven we'll again have to make two stops. One is another dramatic hello. The other is a sad goodbye.

First things first, week seven features a big game between 4-2 New England and 4-2 Miami. Coming into the game, Miami are comfortable seven point home favourites. I have to believe this is because of Jay Fiedler, who has been in and around the top ten QBs in the NFL in 2000 and 2001 before getting injured in 2002. Tom Brady has been nowhere near that status, but as we know, is coming out of his shell in 2003. Whoever comes out of this game the winner will be comfortable favourites to win the AFC East.

In this game, Tom Brady gets to know what Steve McNair felt a few weeks ago. He would get no help from his rushing offence, which would operate at a 28% success rate in this game. Despite this, New England would rush an astounding 29 times in this game. A good example is the Patriots' first drive of the second quarter. It goes like this: Kevin Faulk for four yards, Kevin Faulk for three yards, Tom Brady for two yards. Fumble. Three rushes for nine yards and a fumble (which sets up Miami's only touchdown of this game by the way).

The one drive the majority of the plays are passes, the Patriots last drive before the half, they go right down the field and score a touchdown, although it's nullified by a penalty and they end up having to settle for three. Still, how could they not have seen this and committed to pass more in the second half? The Patriots are losing 10-6, and on their second drive of the second half, they finally get it. They call nine passes to five runs and score a touchdown to tie the game at 13 (Miami had scored another three in the interim).

From here, both teams get stuck. Aside from one very long Miami drive that results in a blocked field goal, both teams can do nothing but trade three and outs for the rest of regulation. This game goes to overtime, tied at 13, but the Dolphins have all the momentum.

In overtime that doesn't change. The Dolphins get all the way to the Pats' 17 without so much as seeing a third down. Remember this is the old overtime era. This game is basically over, but the field goal is missed. The Patriots have a second chance at life.

They waste it. They get into Miami territory, but the drive ends on another killer sack, something Brady has a penchant for taking at this point in his career, but after a Jay Fiedler interception deep in New England territory, Tom throws an 82 yard TD pass to Troy Brown and this game is over. There's a new top dog in the AFC East, and it's the New England Patriots.

By all means, Miami should have won this game. They missed easy field goals in both regulation and overtime that would've given them the win, but I've gone into all this detail so I can say this one sentence. None of this is Tom Brady's fault.

Tom came out in a big spot and had a great game. He completed 24 of 34 for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions and generated 0.36 EPA/Play. If the Patriots would've known what kind of QB they have on their hands, there's no way this game gets to OT. It's hard for an offensive player to shine in a game where his team scores just 19, but in my opinion, Tom comes out of this one looking like a rose.

One person who has not been looking like a rose is Rich Gannon. Still the defending league MVP, Rich has fallen off the rails in 2003, and in a week seven game at home against Trent Green and the Chiefs, we have to say our first goodbye from the contenders list.

In a game where his defence was holding Trent Green to his worst game of the year, the unfathomable would happen to Rich Gannon. On the last Raider play of the second half, Gannon would be sacked and come down with a shoulder injury. He would get up, but his level of play would never be the same. After this injury, Gannon would start just two more games in his NFL career before calling it quits.

Rich Gannon was on the contenders list for just seven games, and perhaps he never belonged there at all. He had only one great game while he was on it (against Drew Brees and the Chargers) and overall generated negative EPA/Play. This is just the thing with quarterbacks. At 37 he was a great QB for the Raiders. He was the one that stopped Chad Pennington's unstoppable rampage in 2002. Jay Fiedler couldn't do it. Tom Brady couldn't do it. Peyton Manning couldn't do it. Rich Gannon did. At 38, he's got nothing left, but I'll let you know the next time the Raiders have a QB as great as Gannon. They certainly haven't had one since. Enjoy retirement champ.

After briefly having the contenders list inflated to six names, it's already back down to five, but Peyton Manning, Steve McNair, Trent Green, Tom Brady, and Chad Pennington is still a whale of a list. There is a clear top two here. Manning and McNair are tied for the AFC lead, both generating 0.290 EPA/Play through week eight. Trent Green has been somewhat disappointing, as disappointing you can be as the QB of an 8-0 KC Chiefs team. I haven't been able to talk about him very much because aside from an elite performance at Green Bay in week six the Chiefs have more or less been quietly been pulling away to blowout wins featuring good but unexceptional Trent performances every week. Chad isn't back yet, but is set to return in week nine against the Giants, and Tom Brady is lagging well behind the rest, generating only 0.016 EPA/Play in his 298 plays so far. However, most of that is packed into a very bad first four weeks of the year, and we've already seen that in a one game sample, he can compete with McNair.

The AFC is still wide open for whoever wants to take it, but the order has changed a bunch. My top two to start the season, Chad and Trent Green are now distant thirds and fourths, and the unexceptional Tom Brady has jumped all the way into the contenders list. All of this before Chad has played even one game.

No worries. That's about to change, but there is one caveat. Chad will be returning without his top receiver, and closest friend.

Laveranues Coles had broken out as a star in the NFL along with Chad for the 2002 New York Jets, and the two had fostered a close friendship. However, in the 2003 offseason, the Jets inexplicably allowed the receiver to sign with Washington, despite having the right to match. After a protracted battle which included the Jets claiming the contract offer was illegal, Coles indeed ended up in Washington.

Chad had offered to give money back to the team so they could keep Coles. Not the Tom Brady style move the money into the future either. This was a man offering to give money back, right after being the best QB in the NFL in 2002, and the Jets still wouldn't keep Coles. Reportedly, Chad broke into tears upon learning Laveranues was going to Washington. He would never offer anything back to the Jets again.

All of that is to say that, while Laveranues will eventually be back, Pennington has to spend the next few years without his star receiver. Just keep that in mind as we go throughout 2003 and 2004. With all of that out of the way, we're back to week nine. Chad's return is in the same conditions he got injured, a home game against the Giants.

On his first drive back, Chad would show he never missed a beat. He completes three of his first four passes and caps the drive off with an eight yard touchdown toss to Santana Moss. In the rest of the first half, the rust becomes more evident. The Jets are able to muster two three and outs and two turnovers and fall behind 13-7 at the half.

On the first drive of the second half, Chad would again come out gunning. This time the drive is capped with a 25 yard touchdown pass to Moss as the Jets take a 14-13 lead, but then the malaise sets in again. The Jets' next drive is another turnover in Giants' territory as the Giants score two touchdowns in a row to go up 28-14. No worries though. Chad's got this.

Now at the ten minute mark of the fourth quarter, Chad leads the Jets on a TD drive capped off by yet another pass to Santana Moss. Upon getting the ball back again with three minutes left to go, Chad leads the Jets right down the field again, and throws yet another touchdown to Santana Moss, only this one is reviewed and it's decided that Moss didn't get two feet in bounds. No matter. Chad just throws a touchdown again, not to Moss this time though.

From the depths of despair to OT in his first game back. Chad is my hero.

After a Giants' missed field goal to start overtime, the Jets decide to use their possession on two Curtis Martin runs that went nowhere (like they'd been all night) and leave Chad in a bad position with a third down and long. Unfortunately, Chad can't break the Jets out of this funk, and they punt the ball away. Luckily, they get the ball back again, and this time he gets the Jets all the way to the Giants 32. This is it.

Unfortunately, the ensuing field goal is blocked. Lightning can't strike three times, and the Giants go and score to take Chad's first game back 31-28.

This game was a mixed bag for Chad. He turned the ball over three times in this game, which is obviously not what you'd like to see out of your star QB, but despite that he generated 0.22 EPA/Play this game, which is much better than acceptable. This is to say that he wasn't turning the ball over, Chad was playing exceptionally well this game. My biggest problem with this game is with Herman Edwards, the Jets' Head Coach. I understand he is not the Jets' offensive play caller, but he still has to take responsibility for this.

Each and every one of Chad's turnovers in this game came on a third and eight or longer, mostly due to a rush offence that couldn't do anything all day. Despite this ineptitude, the Jets ran the ball 36 times in this game. This includes an unbelievable 2nd and 16 rush in the fourth quarter while losing.

Trust me. As this series goes along, you will learn my opinion on Herm Edwards as an offensive coach, but this is about Chad, and though he lost, he is back, and as good as ever.

In week ten, the Jets are going to Oakland to face the Raiders. This was supposed to be the rematch between Chad and Rich Gannon. The NFL loves to put these passing of the torch moments in their schedule. We'll continue to see this as the series goes on, but as we know, this rematch will never take place. This week ten matchup pits Chad up against Rick Mirer, and little did everybody know that Chad is going to need every bit of his greatness to get the Jets out of Oakland with a win.

As usual, Herm Edwards starts off by doing a great deal of harm. After a 16 yard pass from Chad to get the Jets their opening first down of the game, the Jets next two plays are handoffs to Curtis Martin for negative yardage. On third and 16 Chad completes an eight yard pass and the Jets are forced to punt. On the ensuing punt return the Raiders score a touchdown.

If I didn't like Chad and the Jets so much I would almost find this moment humourous, but I can tell you Chad doesn't find it funny. Two plays later and Santana Moss is in the end zone again. The Jets have tied the game 7-7. The Raiders' next drive is something I've never seen before. They run 19 plays. Each and every one of them is a rush. Somehow, coaching genius Herm Edwards cannot figure a way to stop this, and the Raiders score again. 14-7, and we're into the second quarter already.

After two possessions consisting of both teams tripping over themselves more than either squad doing anything to stop the other, the Jets have the ball again. In typical Jets fashion the first two plays of the drive are rushes and it's immediately third and 10. Of course it is. No problem though. Chad unleashes a 45 yard pass to Santana Moss. After three plays and a delay of game penalty, the Jets punt on a fourth and four from the Oakland 39. Why wouldn't they? It's not like they have a QB that's made a career so far out of digging out of these bad situations.

Nevertheless, after an Oakland three and out the Jets actually run a first down pass. Hallelujah. Unfortunately, it's incomplete and the Jets go three and out on this drive and settle for a field goal. 14-10. This is pretty good right? The Jets are in a good position to comeback from here. It's not like Oakland has a great offence to attack with.

Absolutely incorrect. On this day, the Jets make Rick Mirer and Tyrone Wheatley look like Joe Montana and Roger Craig. The Raiders march right down the field and score again, and despite Chad playing a pretty good half of football, he goes into the locker room down 21-10.

I promise I will not go into this level of granularity every time a Jets game comes up. I felt the need to go into this much detail to describe to you in a representative fashion what Chad has to go through every week.

At the dawn of the fourth quarter, it's still 21-10, but the Jets quickly score to make the score 21-16 after a failed conversion attempt. After another long Oakland drive that results in a field goal, the Jets' WP is 11 percent, but Chad would again show his stuff. He leads the Jets on a Manning-esque TD drive that takes two minutes only because the Jets were looking to kill some clock at the end, completes it with the two point conversion, and sends this game to OT again. 24-24.

After the Jets win the coin toss (they send out Vinny Testaverde as their captain, which is interesting if nothing else), the result is academic. The Jets defeat the Raiders 27-24, but it took everything they had to beat a team led by Rick Mirer. I could understand if this was still Rich Gannon, but it's not, and with Peyton Manning and his Indianapolis Colts up next in week eleven, the 3-6 Jets need to pull up their socks if they're looking to keep their playoff chances alive.

Speaking of Peyton and the Colts, they've just taken their second loss of the year to Byron Leftwich and the Jacksonville Jaguars, leaving them tied with Steve McNair and his 7-2 Titans, and the 7-2 New England Patriots, led by Tom Brady for the final first round bye in the AFC. All are trailing Trent Green and his 9-0 KC Chiefs.

The home stretch of this season is setting up to be electric, as all of our five contenders (except for Trent Green, who somehow manages to dodge everybody) will get to play each other in the home stretch of the year, with the exception of Brady and McNair, who've already played. I for one, cannot wait.

This first of this murderers' row of games happens in week eleven. It takes us under the hood once again with the 3-6 New York Jets, who are travelling to Indianapolis to play in Peyton's house with their playoff lives on the line. Chad has played great so far in his return, but this is a step up in competition level to say the least. The RCA dome is a notoriously difficult place to play as visitors (years later, the Colts would be fined for pumping in fake crowd noise), yet on this day, Chad would make the Colts' defence look like amateurs.

After a trademark Peyton Manning drive to start the game that gets to the Jets' 29 before it sees a third down, the Colts open up with a field goal. Chad responds with a touchdown drive that takes two minutes. He's not backing down today folks.

After a Colts touchdown Herm Edwards shows up again to kill the Jets' next drive. A kickoff return all the way to the Colts 40 is wasted by a drive that wastes two plays on Curtis Martin runs that go nowhere and an incomplete pass on third and ten. It's a punt, and when you're playing Payton Manning, you cannot waste these opportunities. Luckily for the Jets, they do get a stop and their offence gets the ball back, but does nothing.

Lightning will not strike twice, and the Colts score to make it 17-7. The Jets do get a field goal at the two minute warning, but leave too much time, and the Colts score another touchdown to go into half with the score 24-10.

What happened? There has to be more fight than this out of a team with their playoff lives on the line. The Jets' offence was on the field for just 21 plays in the whole first half. Luckily, one of them was a 62 yard touchdown pass, so they are down only 14 points, but it's looking bad for the Jets. It would've helped if more than eight of those plays were Pennington touches, but I digress. The Jets' WP coming out of half is five percent, and it's looking like they need a miracle to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Do they need a miracle? Or do they just need Chad Pennington?

Two passes into the second half and the Jets' deficit is reduced to seven. This is a great start, but the Jets just can't stop Peyton. Three minutes later and we're right back where we started, a fourteen point deficit. The Jets WP is down to only four percent, on account of the five minutes less that are left now. This is trouble, but there's something the Jets have up their sleeve that most teams just don't.

They're ridiculous. Things happen in Jets games that just don't happen anywhere else.

After a kickoff return touchdown to reduce the deficit back to seven, the Jets finally hold the Colts to a three and out. Three plays later and Chad has thrown a 48 yard touchdown pass to Santana Moss, and this game is tied. Remember the almost insurmountable 14 point deficit and the four percent chance to win? That was three minutes ago.

Quick sidebar. Look at how explosive the Jets' offence has been since Chad's return. Just in this game, we've seen touchdown drives of four plays, two plays, three plays, and a field goal drive that took only eight. As you read this, keep in mind that this is a team that let their top receiver go in the offseason, despite not at all having to. Just imagine what this offence could've been with Laveranues Coles.

I bring this all up because in the Jets' first drive of the fourth quarter (after another Colts touchdown), Santana Moss goes down with an injury. At this, the Jets' offence falls to bits. They don't get another first down in the rest of this game, and the Colts take it 38-31. The Jets season, as far as playoffs go, is over, and the Colts move to 8-2, but that is secondary to the matchup that these two QBs had today.

Looking back with hindsight, it's easy to forget a week eleven matchup in the 2003 season between the 3-6 Jets and the 7-2 Colts, but given all the context we've seen so far, I hope you understand the importance of what's just happened here. Peyton had taken the league by storm in 1999 and 2000, but then fallen into a rut. He'd been passed as the heir to the AFC throne by Chad Pennington. For him to reclaim that top spot it was imperative that he beat Chad today and he did, but he had to do it by the skin of his teeth despite being granted every conceivable advantage.

In this game, the TOP battle was so lopsided it's almost funny. The Colts' 77 offensive plays more than doubled up the Jets' putrid 35, and yet they were able to win by just seven points. I'll remind you that the Jets scored 31 points on just 35 offensive plays. Is this Chad Pennington or Aaron Rodgers? They ran just 18 first down plays all day, and still scored 31 points. That is so far above normal it almost breaks the scale.

Despite the loss, Chad moves to second in the QB hierarchy after this game. I apologise to Steve McNair, but in the Titans' visit to the RCA Dome they lost by 26 as the favourites. In the Jets' visit, Chad came in and made the Colts' defence look like fools and gave them everything they wanted and more. He proved himself every bit Peyton's equal today. I can't move Chad above Peyton since the Jets did lose the game, but he is back. The broken wrist is long since forgotten, and Chad is comfortably second in the contenders list.

Something else shocking happens in week eleven. The Chiefs take their first loss of the year. Coming into Cincinnati as six point road favourites, Trent Green has a very good game, but is just outplayed by Jon Kitna as the Chiefs lose 24-19 in a game that never feels that close. This is the defining moment in what would go on to be Kitna's career year in 2003. It's a shame that none of our contenders are in the AFC North so I can't touch on Kitna more, but if I didn't know he is going to be replaced in 2004 by an even better QB, and then spend the rest of his career in the NFC, he is somebody I would think about for the contenders list. So far in 2003, he ranks fifth in the AFC in EPA/Play (behind Peyton, McNair, Chad, Trent, and Jake Plummer), and has dragged a brutal Bengals team to a 5-5 record. This series is about the contenders for the top of the conference, so we won't see him again (with one exception), but if you ever find yourself thinking back to this era of AFC football, spare a thought for Jon Kitna.

After all the excitement of week eleven, at last comes a rest for the weary in week twelve, as Chad and the Jets get a win in relatively easy fashion over the Jacksonville Jaguars. However, the other contenders still have some work to do. The Colts need a game winning drive from Peyton to get out of Buffalo with a 17-14 win. The Chiefs need a game winning drive from Trent Green, including an extremely clutch fourth and 14 pass, to get a win over Rick Mirer (who is apparently going to play like Joe Montana against all of our contenders) and the Raiders.

Tom Brady and the Patriots get completely stonewalled by a Texans defence that will go on to rank 28th in 2003, but luckily for them, the opposing QB is Tony Banks, so they're able to sneak out of Houston with a 23-20 OT win. Steve McNair has to leave the Titans' game against the Falcons for injury, but Billy Volek steps into his role as an honourary contender (not the last time he'll have to do this) and leads the Titans to a 38-31 win in Atlanta.

Week twelve proves the benefit of having a contender as your QB. None of them played their best, yet each and every one of them were able to walk out of week twelve with a victory. That's what separates the great from the good. In week thirteen however, this will not do. For the first time ever, we have two matchups between contenders in the same week.

The first is a Sunday afternoon scrap between Peyton's Colts and Brady's Patriots. The second is a Monday night matchup for the official number two spot between Chad and the Jets and McNair's Titans. It's going to be a great week for sorting out the contenders from the pretenders, and I can't wait.

We start in Indianapolis for the first real matchup between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. They did play in 2001 in Tom's first career start, but since then both have become contenders. Both are now at the head of 10-2 football teams, and with Kansas City finally showing a sign of weakness, both teams have a chance for home field throughout the playoffs if they can win this game. This game is in a whole different league to that first one, but in the first half against a Patriots' defence that will go on to rank 2nd in 2003, Peyton will not play his best.

The Colts' drives in the first half (in order) are a strip sack, a three and out, a field goal drive that was only saved by a Patriot roughing the kicker penalty, and finally a touchdown right before the half. All the while Tom Brady is tearing the Colts' 23rd ranked defence apart, with their four drives being a field goal, two touchdowns and a punt from the Indianapolis 40. To add insult to injury, the Patriots even score a kick return touchdown right after the Colts late touchdown. The Colts, who came into this game as four point home favourites, are now going into half down 24-10.

Remember back to week eleven, where it took the Jets three minutes to recover from a 14 point deficit, so this is definitely possible, but the Colts don't have Chad Pennington. Peyton just can't do the things Chad does, and it shows, as the Colts' first drive of the second half fizzles out again, and Tom leads the Patriots right back down the field to take a 31-10 lead. The Colts' WP is down to six percent, and that's before the interception Peyton throws on the next possession, which drops it to three percent.

This is brutal. There's 6:12 left in the third, the Patriots are up 21 points, and have the ball on the Colt 35. Peyton, supposedly the top candidate to take over the conference, has turned the ball over twice to a Patriot defence that definitely is suffocating, but isn't the best in the league. This potential starting point to a great rivalry has turned into a complete dud and Chad Pennington has taken back over the number one spot by default.

Right?

Wrong. The best QB rivalry in AFC history begins now, at 6:12 of the third quarter of week 13 of the 2003 season, as Tom Brady throws an interception to give the Colts new life. This will be a theme as we go along. When you give Peyton new life, he will punish you severely for it. Four minutes and the deficit is down to 14. After another Brady interception the deficit shrinks to seven. We're not even out of the third yet. One Patriot three and out later and the game is tied. Peyton has done to Tom what nobody can do to the Patriots.

Oh my goodness. There's 10:26 left in the fourth, and the 21 point deficit is gone. This happened so quickly that it is eerily similar to what Chad and the Jets did to the Colts a few weeks ago. I mean weirdly similar. It's almost as if the football Gods wanted Peyton to one up Chad again. I'm sure if Peyton had a deep threat like Santana Moss he could've done this even quicker, so I'm willing to call this a draw between the two, but this is a really exciting rivalry in the making.

Anyways, back to the current rivalry in the making. The Patriots next drive does result in a touchdown, so it's 38-31 Patriots at the 8:41 mark. After a Colts drive that ends with a punt, but takes four minutes off the clock, the Patriots have a chance to put the game away. Instead, the unthinkable happens. Kevin Faulk fumbles the ball and Peyton gets it at the Patriot 11. As the Patriots fans are busy mourning this absolute disaster, the unthinkable happens again. Peyton throws three incomplete passes in a row, and the Colts have to settle for a field goal. The Patriots have the chance to put the game away again.

This drive shows why Tom is still a distant fifth on the contenders list. It's three incomplete passes, and it takes a total of 15 seconds of the clock. It's a catastrophe. It's the worst thing that could've happened to the Patriots.

Don't give Peyton Manning new life. He will punish you severely.

Like a flash the Colts go right down the field, and with 40 seconds left the Colts are on the two yard line. Remember the Colts are down four, so it's touchdown or nothing, and this is where it becomes apparent we're still playing 2003 football. Keep in mind that the Colts have the top contender for the AFC crown as their QB. They have four tries to get this ball in the end zone. In 2023 this would've been three passes, and maybe a run. If not, four passes. In 2003, it was two rushes that failed, one pass (from a singleback formation) that failed, and then another rush that failed.

Peyton got just one chance to get this ball in the end zone. To me, that's unacceptable. I know he had just failed three times in a row and had to settle for three the last time down the field, but I don't care. In 2023, this play calling would be endlessly derided. Perhaps people would call for Tony Dungy's firing.

As it stands, the Patriots have won 38-34, and considering their wins over the Colts and Titans, have put themselves in the dominant position to be the ones to take advantage if the Chiefs take another loss somewhere down the line. Tom played very well in this game. Better than Peyton. 0.17 EPA/Play despite two turnovers is very hard to do, and it means that aside from those two plays, Tom played exceptionally well. For people who were paying attention, Tom's breakout was in week five against Steve McNair, but now nobody can miss it. Everybody knows who Tom Brady is. Not enough to take him out of the fifth spot, but enough to move him closer to Trent Green. Great game Tom.

After such a fascinating matchup between one and five in the QB hierarchy, you'd figure the matchup for number two between Chad Pennington and Steve McNair would produce just as many fireworks. With the Colts finally having taken a loss, this is the Titans' chance to take back the lead in the AFC South before a match with the Colts in Nashville in week 14. All they have to do is beat the 4-7 New York Jets on Monday Night Football.

As we know, when the Jets have their dynamic duo of Chad and Santana Moss, this is very much easier said than done.

On each team's first possession, they storm straight down the field for touchdowns. The Jets drive featured something miraculous. On a fourth and one from the Titans' 14 the Jets actually go for it, and make it, and go on to score a touchdown. That in itself is not miraculous, but knowing what we know about Herman Edwards, it's a miracle this call was made.

After these fireworks, the game starts to settle into a rhythm. Both teams' next possession ends in a turnover (including a Chad interception on the Titans goal line), and the rest of the half settles into a defensive battle (including Chad getting no help from his run game again) until the Jets go into the half up 10-7.

After a Jets' drive coming out of half that consists of two runs that each fail to contribute (shocker) and Chad not being able to dig the Jets out of the third and long, McNair need not do very much as Eddie George puts the Titans on his back and they score a field goal to tie the game at ten. From here, the Jets seem to remember who they are, as each of their next two drives see only one third down each as the Jets score two touchdowns to take a 24-10 lead, and it's all over from here. The Jets eventually win 24-17 after a garbage time touchdown, and Chad Pennington has definitively outplayed Steve McNair to solidify his grip on the number two spot in the AFC QB hierarchy.

Remember when I said that 0.17 EPA/Play despite two turnovers was fairly impressive when Tom Brady did it? How about when Chad Pennington generates 0.35 despite two turnovers in an easy win? What do I call that? Great springs to mind, but that even seems like an undersell. This game was not very interesting. Chad made Steve McNair look like a good QB today. When we're talking about the contenders list, good is not a compliment.

Week 13 was a rollercoaster, but week 14 also has two huge games in the AFC schedule. The AFC South champion will effectively be crowned in a matchup between the 9-3 Titans and the 9-3 Colts in Nashville. Also, the Chiefs' last real chance to lose a game happens this week, as 11-1 Kansas City is travelling to Denver to play the 7-5 Broncos. At first glance, that doesn't seem like a very intimidating opponent, but in order to explain why the 7-5 record is misleading, I have to make another introduction.

Yes, we have to talk about Jake Plummer. I've been avoiding and putting this off for long enough, but coming into week fourteen, he and his Broncos can no longer be denied.

Having been one of the worst QBs in the NFL in 2002, the Broncos took a big risk in signing Plummer to replace one year wonder (in 2000) Brian Griese for 2003, and it has worked out in spades. Coming into week 14, Plummer ranks seventh in the AFC in EPA/Play, which is not especially impressive, but he's led the Broncos to a 6-2 record in his eight starts, which is.

The Broncos have limped to a 7-5 record so far only because when Plummer missed four games in the middle of the year with injury, all but one were Bronco losses. Everybody remembers this Broncos team for their second ranked rushing attack, led by Clinton Portis, but make no mistake, Plummer is crucial to their success, and we'll see this in week 14, against Trent Green and his Kansas City Chiefs.

In a game that pits the NFL's second best rush offence (Denver) against its top rush offence (Kansas City), and one which amazingly sees the 11-1 Chiefs come in as underdogs, nobody would expect the coming out party for a new contender in the AFC, but that is exactly what they would get.

In a first half for the ages, the Chiefs would score a touchdown at every time of asking, while the Broncos would be held to a field goal once, meaning the score at the half was 21-17. From here, it's all Broncos.

Denver would again score a touchdown at every time of asking in the second half, except once (which was the final possession where they weren't really even trying to score). Kansas City just couldn't keep up the pace, not scoring at all in the second half, aside from one garbage time touchdown as they take their second loss and fall 45-27 to move to 11-2.

Once again, Trent Green was outplayed despite playing pretty darn good himself. Trent generated 0.25 EPA/Play this game, and never even turned the ball over. This game is in the 74th percentile of all QB performances in NFL history. Further contextualised, he did this against a Denver defence that will go on to rank 11th in 2003. This was a great game by Trent Green, but it was wholly eclipsed by the performance of our newest addition to the contenders list.

Jake Plummer and the Denver Broncos had perhaps the best team offensive performance in NFL history on this day. I know that sounds like hyperbole, but I'm not kidding. I can say with certainty that the Denver rush attack had the best game of the play tracking era on this day in 2003. As a team, they rushed for 270 yards on 32 attempts, and generated 0.52 EPA/Rush, which ranks number one for all games in the play tracking era (since 1999). Just for kicks, at the same time Jake Plummer had one of the best games of his career, putting up a performance that's in the 92nd percentile of all QB games. He completed 20 of 29 throws for 238 yards and generated 0.51 EPA/Pass. In all, the Broncos generated 0.51 EPA/Play as a team in this game, which ranks number one for all games of the play tracking era.

The best offensive game since 1999 (and probably ever, but there is no data before 1999 so I can't tell you with certainty) was played in week 14 of the 2003 NFL season by the Denver Broncos. I brought this up for three reasons. The first is that now you know what the best offensive day in NFL history was. That's always cool. The second is that I implore you not to blame Trent Green for this loss. I know people like to see their contenders winning, but if the Chiefs' QB was Patrick Mahomes they would've lost today. Manning would've lost. Chad would've lost. McNair would've lost. Trent Green did, but nobody was winning this game. Nobody.

The third reason is that the QB of this masterpiece was not any of the regular suspects. It was Jake Plummer, and don't you ever forget it. Put some respect on his name. Welcome to the contenders list.

Now that we're back up to six names on the list, the competition is going to be even fiercer for the top spots. This is especially bad for Steve McNair, who started the season strong, and is still third on the list, but is yet to get a win over a fellow contender this year having lost to Peyton, Tom, and Chad. If he wants to prove he's for real, his chance is right now. Peyton is becoming a barometer for what other QBs can be. To this point, Chad and Tom have both come out and proven themselves for real in their games against Peyton and his Colts, but McNair in his chance laid an egg and lost by 26 points. This is a bad look for the resume of a man trying to be the best QB in the league. Luckily for Steve, he and Peyton share a division, so he gets a second chance at the Indianapolis Colts, this time with the AFC South division crown on the line.

The Titans start this game in an uncharacteristic fashion. Despite coming into week 14 with the NFL's 30th ranked rushing attack (by far the worst of any team with a contender at QB), the Titans' first drive gets into Colts' territory for a field goal rather easily, largely on the back of Eddie George. After Peyton and the Colts respond with a field goal of their own, McNair leads the Titans right back down the field for a touchdown. The 33-7 blowout early in the year seems like a distant memory, and the Titans have a 10-3 lead.

From here, the Titans can't seem to do anything right. Their next drive ends in a fumble by Shad Meier on an 18 yard completion. The defence holds the Colts to a field goal. On the next drive, the Titans emulate the New York Jets, with a drive that features an incomplete pass, and then two rushes (including an extremely odd run on third and eight) and a punt. The defence holds the Colts to another field goal. On the ensuing kickoff, the ball is fumbled, and the Colts get the ball yet again. In a minor miracle, the Colts are held to a field goal yet again as the first half ends.

After those amazing first two drives (since 1:49 of the first quarter), Steve McNair has been able to touch the ball just twice, with one of them being an 18 yard completion. Despite playing great so far, he finds himself down 12-10. The Titans are simultaneously unlucky to be behind and fortunate to still be in the game. Remember the motto.

Do not give Peyton Manning life. He will punish you severely.

In this game though, the motto hasn't been holding. The Titans defence has been able to keep it to field goals. If their offence can ever get their hands back on the ball, the Titans still have a great chance to win this. Unfortunately, in this game, that is a huge if. By the time the Titans offence gets their hands back on the ball, the third quarter is better than half over, and they're down 22-10.

How could that happen? Another fumble on a kickoff of course.

That's right. After a Colts touchdown to start the half, the kickoff return is fumbled again, and the Colts get the ball inside the Titans' 20 again. Luckily, the motto again fails to hold, as Peyton and the Colts are again held to a field goal, but it's now 22-10. There's 7:10 left in the third, and remember that since 1:49 of the first quarter (well over an hour ago in real time) Steve McNair has touched the ball just twice. It'd be generous to say the Titans' offence has fallen out of their rhythm, and they're coming onto the field in a must score situation.

As a result, the drive does look a little scruffy, featuring multiple second and third and longs, but (with help from a roughing the passer penalty) they do manage a field goal to make the score 22-13. This doesn't look so good two minutes later when Peyton has just made the score 29-13. Now these are really must score situations. There's no more tolerance for sloppiness. Every play counts if the Titans still want a chance at a home playoff game in 2003.

On the ensuing drive, I'm convinced the Titans must've heard me as they drive straight down the field (without pausing to rush, thank goodness) and score a touchdown while seeing just one third down. The two point conversion is a McNair keep, and the score is 29-21. There's life in the Titans yet.

Following a Colts three and out, it seems like the perfect chance for Steve to make his mark, but the Titans can't go anywhere. This gives the Colts the chance to take three more minutes off the clock, but the Titans will get one final chance, as Steve takes the field down eight, with 2:40 on the clock.

Similar to Chad, Steve makes this really anticlimactic. After four plays the Titans are on the Colts' one yard line. Three plays later they're in the end zone. It takes 43 seconds. At first this seems like a bad thing, 1:57 is a lot of time to leave for Peyton to go on a game winning drive, but actually turns out to be the game saver when the two point conversion pass falls incomplete. After three Colts plays that take the clock down to 50 seconds, Steve and the Titans are going to get a chance with about 35 seconds to go down the field and kick the game winning field goal.

Or would they?

Yet another fumble, this time on the punt return, sinks the Titans chances, The Colts take this game 29-27, and with two wins over the Titans, they basically wrap up the division too.

This game had to be killer for the Titans, and Steve McNair in specific. They were torturing the Colts, scoring on six of their eight possessions, and generating 0.22 EPA/Play as a team, which is exceptional. The Colts, on the other hand, also scored six times, but they did this on twelve possessions. You can't beat a team when they have 12 possessions to your eight. You just can't do it, but Steve McNair tried his best, and got very close. This game actually improves his position in the QB hierarchy, although not enough to get him to second, but this still was a great game from Steve. It wipes the earlier 26 point loss from memory, and gives Steve a great game against Peyton Manning, just like all the other contenders have had.

In the wake of this game, it will be revealed the McNair has bone spurs in his ankle, and he won't play for a few weeks, which only makes this game seem even better.

After two straight weeks of excitement, the QB hierarchy remains unchanged, but for the addition of Jake Plummer. It's still Peyton leading the way, with Chad in a strong second, closely followed by McNair in third. There's then a bit of a drop off until you get to Trent Green and Jake Plummer in a dogfight for fourth, and then another drop off to Tom Brady, now in a rather distant sixth instead of fifth, but still closer to fourth than he was before.

Week 15 provides another rest for the weary. Peyton finally gets a break, as the Colts blow out the Falcons at home. Chad and the Jets get a home win over the Steelers, despite again running 34 rush plays for a rush offence that was operating at a 24% success rate (sometimes I think Herman Edwards was tanking on purpose with these play calls). McNair's substitute Billy Volek leads the Titans to a second half comeback over the Buffalo Bills and their tough defence. Trent Green has one of the best games in NFL history (not hyperbole) against the Detroit Lions. Jake Plummer needs overtime to get by the Cleveland Browns and the last great game of Tim Couch's NFL career, but he gets it done. Tom and the Patriots get a blowout win over the Jaguars (the same Jaguars who beat the Colts earlier this season).

This is the second time in a row that when no contenders are playing each other, the contenders don't lose. It will happen (Peyton did lose to Byron Leftwich after all), but in general it takes a contender to beat one.

Coming into week 16, it's clear to see that in 2003 (as in most changing of the guard type seasons) the AFC turned out to be quite weak. Out of 16 teams in the conference, only seven are going to end up with winning records. As such, even with two weeks to go, five playoff spots are already decided.

Due to Kansas City's losses, New England has pulled ahead in the race for home field in the AFC. Even though both are even at 12-2, New England holds the tie breaker due to Kansas City's losses coming in the conference. Another benefit that Kansas City doesn't have is a win over the third place 11-3 Indianapolis Colts, who are nipping right at their heels only one game behind. Due to the Colts' two head to head victories, they are functionally two games ahead of the 10-4 Tennessee Titans, who will be forced into a wild card spot. There has to be an AFC North winner (luckily for them, or there wouldn't have been one this year), which is going to be the Baltimore Ravens. They've clinched already. Good for them.

This leaves one wild card spot open, with two teams fighting over it. The combatants are the 8-6 Miami Dolphins, and the 9-5 Denver Broncos, led by our man Jake Plummer. Even in this one remaining race, the Broncos have the definitive advantage. In the final two weeks, they need to win just once in order to clinch the final wild card spot. However, due to two separate factors, that is going to be harder than it sounds.

The first is that in the aforementioned overtime dogfight with Cleveland, Denver lost Clinton Portis. He will be back for the playoffs, if they can make it that far, but he will not play for the remainder of the regular season. This is a really tough blow for a team driven by their rush attack in the way Denver is, but the bigger problem is their remaining two opponents. Both of Denver's remaining opponents are in the thick of playoff fights themselves, so neither game will be easy. Luckily, they need win only one, but they will come into both games as strong underdogs.

The first game of this potential two week grind takes us back to Peyton's house for one last time this regular season. Denver is going to play the Colts with one of their playoff chances on the line, and without Portis, they come into the came firmly as the underdogs, with a full seven point spread in favour of the Colts.

Recall this is also an important game for the Colts. They're a game behind Kansas City, but recall the Colts also have an out of conference loss (all the way back in week six to the Carolina Panthers), so if the Chiefs are to take another loss, it's very possible for the Colts to swoop in and steal a first round bye away from a KC team that spent almost the whole season in the number one spot.

We've seen the Broncos in a big game situation before against the Chiefs, and in that game they put up the best offensive performance of all time, and scored a touchdown at every time of asking, except twice (one field goal, one end of game drive to kill clock). Nothing could go wrong for Denver that day, but on this day, we begin with catastrophe.

Jake's first pass attempt of the game is a pick six, and Denver immediately falls behind 7-0. For a Denver team that isn't very good at playing from behind, this is the worst thing that could've possibly happened. Jake Plummer is a man with a penchant for throwing interceptions, but in his prior nine starts he'd thrown only three, which is more than respectable, especially in this era. You know NFL fans though, they never forget. When you compound all this with the knowledge that their starting back is gone, and isn't coming back, the nervousness in the Broncos fans has to be at a fever pitch right now.

If you still doubt Jake Plummer's position on the contenders list, the next Bronco possession should tell you all you need to know. The very next play from scrimmage is a 60 yard pass from Plummer to Ashley Lelie. They don't require another pass to get into the end zone, and they've immediately tied the game. After a Colts three and out, the Broncos get another drive going where Jake throws just two passes, but they account for 50 yards as the Broncos get in for another touchdown.

After a Colts touchdown in response, the game is tied again, and this next drive is crucial for the Broncos. Remember the motto: don't give Peyton Manning life. He will punish you severely. The Broncos respond with another drive where Jake has to complete just three passes, but these three passes go for a combined 47 yards. In so doing, they overcome two false start penalties causing first and second and 15 situations. The typical rushing team can't overcome multiple false start penalties like this, but this rushing team has Jake Plummer.

You know the drill from here. After a Colt three and out, the Broncos score again on their next drive with Jake having to complete just three passes. Something interesting happens on this drive though: Jake throws an incomplete pass.

That's right. After his first attempt was intercepted and returned for a touchdown and everybody's worst fears about Jake Plummer came right to the top of the mind, it takes Jake until 2:37 left in the second quarter to so much as throw another incompletion. This is great stuff.

After going into the half up 28-17, the result of the game is academic. The Broncos hold the ball for almost the whole second half with one long possession that finally gets held off in a goal line stand, and one field goal from inside the ten. The first drive took eleven plays (over seven minutes). The second took 15 (nine and a half minutes). Of these, only five were throws, but the Broncos didn't need a ton of completions today. Even without Clinton Portis, the Bronco rushing attack closed out this 31-17 win, and their spot in the AFC playoffs.

For once, it was the Colts who got TOPed to death, running just 40 plays this game, compared to the Broncos' 74. The Broncos did not give Peyton any life, and so he didn't punish them at all. In fact he was held to his worst game of the year by the Denver defence, but don't allow this to take credit away from what Jake and the Denver offence did today. We've seen how great Peyton can be after starting games very badly. Think back to his awful starts against Tampa Bay and New England that we've covered in this piece, only to storm back in the second halves of those games. If you give Peyton chances, he will destroy you, but Denver allowed the Colts to run just 29 pass plays today. That's how you beat the Colts.

I know you may be tempted to credit this performance to the Denver rush attack more so than to Jake, but I implore you to reconsider. I understand that the Broncos ran 53 times, in comparison to just 21 pass plays, but their rush attack was operating at a 43% success rate, which is good but not good enough to win a game on its own. The Denver Broncos got 4 total EPA out of their rush game, which is again good but not near game winning. A performance like this becomes almost impossible to beat when you combine it with a QB who gives you 18.8 EPA in just 21 plays. That's almost a whole EPA/Play. Jake threw for 238 yards on just 14 completions. That's a yards per completion figure well over 15. That's better than an elite game. Jake played like an all time great again.

Thank goodness he did too, because in Minnesota the Chiefs were indeed taking another loss to the Minnesota Vikings, but with the Colts' loss their first round bye is secured for them. Additionally, in Buffalo the Dolphins were busy blowing out the Bills on their own home field. It's wild to think back and think of how many things would change about the 2003 NFL season if not for this one performance today by Jake Plummer, but what's done is done. The AFC playoff field is now set, and it includes five of our contenders.

At the close of the 2003 season, Peyton Manning and Steve McNair are named co-NFL MVPs after an extremely rare tie in the MVP voting, and honestly that's probably the right call. McNair did end up the NFL's leader in EPA/Play and ANY/A for 2003, but played 165 plays less than Peyton (468 to 633), who finished second in both stats. My vote would probably have gone to Peyton, but McNair is also a deserving MVP.

At the beginning of the season, Peyton had by far the most to prove out of this group of contenders, and did he ever prove it. He's taken his rightful place back atop the AFC QB pyramid, and while his 3-2 record against other contenders may not be incredibly inspiring, he is hamstrung by having had to play five of his games against teams with a real threat as their QB.

Chad Pennington cooled off a lot after his first few games back, but I still feel he's the second most likely QB to take the AFC's throne. He and Santana Moss have been making defences look like idiots all year, and though the Jets missed the playoffs by a lot this season, they did get a win over a fellow contender, and with a healthy Chad going into next season, expect to see them back in the playoffs again.

Steve McNair came into this season sporting rather high expectations, and it's unclear whether he lived up to them or not. I know what you're saying. How could the NFL MVP not have lived up to expectations? Well, individually he did, no question. He carried an offence that's honestly quite bad into a position to be a top ten unit, despite having the least help of all the contenders. What's uninspiring is the Titans' 0-4 record against teams with a contender as their QB. In simple terms, if the other team had a great QB that could match McNair, the Titans lost. I know he should definitely have won in the second go around against Peyton, but a loss is still a loss. Despite the Titans' awesome 12-4 record, they won just twice against teams that would go on to have a winning record. That's concerning, and watch out for regression out of the Titans once they get some tougher schedules moving forward.

It's hard to consider a season where you finish 4th in EPA/Play and third in ANY/A a step backwards, but when you finished second in both like Trent Green did in 2002, it is. I don't know what to make of Green's 2003 season. Yes he generated a very good 0.177 EPA/Play, but that is not even close to McNair's 0.237, and Trent had a lot more help than McNair did. At least we've seen that McNair can compete with other contenders, even if he loses every time. Out of Trent Green, we've seen nothing. In his one game against a contender, he got blown out of the water by Plummer and the Broncos. It's not his fault that the Chiefs played nine AFC teams in 2003 and somehow managed to miss each of the Jets, Titans, Colts and Patriots, but it does leave him somewhat unproven going into playoff football. It's been a season of things not going right for reasons out of Trent's control in 2003. He doesn't make the schedule. He played quite well in both the Bengals and Broncos losses, but in the playoffs these things won't be remembered. The Chiefs' 13-3 record was good enough to get them a bye and a home playoff game. They best use it wisely.

From a risky signing to begin with to an overnight sensation, welcome to the dance Jake Plummer. In terms of stats, he'd be up there with Peyton and McNair, but I can't ignore that Jake got to touch the ball just 362 times in 2003, due to a combo of injury and his team just not needing him, so he tentatively sits fifth in the contenders list for now, though I'm open to moving him up if necessary. Jake is an up and down player. In the week between his two games against fellow contenders, blowing out both Trent Green and Peyton Manning, he got outplayed by Tim Couch. This uncertainty of which Jake Plummer is here to stay going forward is why he stays at fifth in the end of season rankings, but I'm tempted to go up with these great late season performances.

Last but not least comes Tom Brady. What to do with Tom Brady? Like McNair, Tom had no help on the offensive side this year, but unlike McNair, he played like it. In terms of EPA/Play, he falls well short of the other contenders, and even finished behind Jon Kitna for an uninspiring seventh in the AFC, and led the Patriots to the 16th ranked offence in the NFL. Despite this, the Patriots are riding a twelve game win streak after beginning the season 2-2, and enter the playoffs as the AFC's first seed. If you exclude those ugly first four weeks of the season before his breakout game over McNair and the Titans, Tom's stats start to look a lot better, but he's still short of the top ranks of this list. Despite all of this, his 3-0 record against the other contenders proves he can win against the top competition. If he comes out in 2004 and plays like the Tom Brady from these last 12 weeks instead of the one from the prior two years, watch for him to move up this list.

Now that the season summaries are over, it's time for the AFC playoffs. It's a gauntlet for supremacy between five of our contenders, and the Baltimore Ravens, and their league leading defence.

Steve McNair is rewarded for not winning the AFC South with a matchup with Anthony Wright and the Ravens. As reward for winning the division, the Colts get a rematch with Plummer and the Broncos at home again. This seems unfair, but it is what it is. The teams don't make the schedules.

We all know the McNair rule. If the opposing QB is of a calibre that can match Steve's play, the Titans lose. If not, they win. Considering the Titans' wild card opponent is the Baltimore Ravens, led by Anthony Wright, I know who my money is on.

There is one caveat though, the 2003 Baltimore Ravens are the best defence in the NFL. They're not quite as good as their 2000 counterparts, who won the Ravens a Super Bowl, but they're still the best defence in the league by more than a little bit. In terms of EPA/Play, they're just as far ahead of the second place Patriots than the Patriots are ahead of sixth place Miami.

All of this is to say that the Ravens are a live bet in this game, despite being led by Anthony Wright, a man who will never be a full time starter before or after this, at QB. This is further evidenced by the fact this game is a pick 'em in Vegas. The Titans come in as one point road favourites, which is essentially the books telling you they have no idea who is going to win.

Even the WP model has this as a very close matchup, with its opinion being split 54-46 in favour of the Titans, but after a first drive touchdown by the Titans, it seems like all of that changes.

McNair completes only two passes (in only three attempts) on this drive, but they account for 31 yards as the Titans march down the field and score a touchdown on their first drive of the game. This boosts the Titans' WP all the way to 75 percent. The model does not have any faith in the Ravens to overcome a deficit, but it cannot account for what happens next.

The Titans' next drive also gets off to a great start, with its first play being a first down completion to Desmond Mason for eleven yards. If Steve can continue to play this way, this game has the potential to turn into a rout quickly. You don't have to score many points to make an unsurmountable deficit against these 2000s Ravens teams. 14 will be plenty.

The next play is indeed a touchdown. Unfortunately for us, it's a 56 yard pick six from McNair to tie the game at seven. The Ravens are back from the brink, and have reduced the WP back to a 58-42 split. However, on the Titans' next drive, they again have it going. They're back inside Baltimore territory, again mostly behind Eddie George and the run game.

From here, a first down holding penalty appears to kill the Titans chances. First and 20 against this Ravens team is almost unwinnable, but the Titans do bounce back to have a fourth and one on the Baltimore 43. Unbelievably, they punt this ball.

What? How could they do this? This is such an obvious spot to go for it that I think Herman Edwards has taken over coaching duties for the Titans today. How many chances in Baltimore territory does Jeff Fisher think he is going to get? Even if you miss and give the ball to Baltimore on their own 43, Anthony Wright has completed one pass today so far, and we're right at the end of the first quarter. What are you scared of?

Evidently he's scared of something, as the Titans do punt this ball. The Ravens do end up punting from deep and as a reward for giving the ball away the Titans get the ball back, essentially, right where they had it before. I swear, the football geniuses in this era were so bad it gives the word genius a new meaning, but this tangent aside, this drive ends in another McNair interception, and the Titans manage one first down for the rest of the half as they go into the break down 10-7.

This is a bad spot to be in. You don't want to be behind these Ravens for any stretch of time if you can help it. It's only three, which is why the WP model still gives the Titans a 46% chance to win, but they better come out of half firing.

They don't. Their first drive out of half is an easy three and out for the Ravens defence, but after an easy stop of their own the Titans finally get something going again. They get back into Baltimore territory on the back of Eddie George, and cap it off with a 49 yard McNair touchdown pass to take the lead back again.

From here, both teams go back to trading punts. The Titans are able to score three points off of a Baltimore interception on their own 31, but both teams' offences accomplish nothing. From McNair's touchdown pass (at 8:12 of the third) to now (8:09 of the fourth) they teams share two first downs between them. As the seconds bleed away, Baltimore's chances to win also slip into the cracks, and by now, 8:09 of the fourth, the Ravens' WP has sank all the way to 17 percent.

From here, a miracle happens. Anthony Wright leads a clutch game tying touchdown drive in the fourth quarter of a playoff game. He gets no help from his 2000 yard man Jamal Lewis. It's all Wright, and it works. Perhaps these Ravens should've done this more, but I digress. The score, against all odds, is now tied at 17. There's 4:26 left in this game. It's all on McNair to send the Titans to the next round.

Not yet. Another interception kills the game winning drive before it gets started. In what was an obvious pass interference under modern rules, Chris McAlister makes a great catch to give his team the chance to win. Anthony Wright can do nothing with it, and so McNair gets another chance, and this one he takes advantage of.

In a fairly boring final drive, McNair gets the Titans down the field to the Ravens' 29 yard line, which is more than enough for the Titans to kick the game winning field goal to take the final chapter of this old rivalry (torn apart by the 2002 division realignment) 20-17.

This was a very courageous effort by Steve McNair. I told you earlier about the bone spurs in his ankle, but by this point he's playing on two bad legs, in Baltimore against what is essentially (but not literally) still a division rival from the old AFC Central. This is a nightmare situation to walk into, but despite playing well below his best (easy to do against these Ravens), he got his Titans out of Baltimore with a win. Now we wait to see who they'll be playing in round two.

This next game is the one that everybody is excited about. It's the rematch from the week 16 game where the Broncos clinched their playoff spot and stole the Colts' first round bye away. In that game, without Clinton Portis, Jake Plummer was able to kill the Colts on just 14 completions, and the Broncos' defence was able to hold Peyton to negative EPA/Play. This time they have Portis. Recall the last time these two teams played the Colts were favoured by a full touchdown. This time the spread is a meagre three points. This is an intriguing matchup, and if Plummer can win it again, he may be in for some serious upward mobility on our contenders list.

After a first drive where the Colts scored easily, without seeing a third down, the Broncos take an absurd eight minutes to go just 57 yards, and end up with a field goal. They're trying to do the same to the Colts now that they did in week 16. Unfortunately for them, Peyton scores easily again the next time he touches the ball.

Now down 14-3, and into the second quarter already, the Broncos' next offensive drive is killed by two holding penalties (think back to week 16 where the Broncos were able to overcome a drive hamstrung by two false start penalties to begin the eventual blowout victory). At this point, the Broncos have given Peyton Manning life. We know what happens when teams give Peyton life. Let the punishment begin.

Before the two minute warning the Colts are already up 28-3. After another field goal in the two minute drill, the score reaches 31-3, and the Broncos reach the mythical zero percent chance of victory before the first half even ends. From here, Peyton will throw just eight passes for the rest of this game and will sit for the fourth quarter of an easy 41-10 Colts win.

How about that to turn the Broncos' swag right back on them? Recall the Colts had come into this game as just three point favourites. That's basically only the difference you get for being the home team. If this game would've been in Denver, the Broncos would've likely been the favourites. How silly would the bookies have felt then as Peyton had perhaps the greatest playoff game in NFL history?

This game is not remembered in the fashion that it should be. In this game Peyton took Jake Plummer's all time great performance in week 16 and made it look like small apples. Recall how I said that Jake put up almost a whole EPA/Play in just 21 plays and how it was an all time great performance? Well Peyton absolutely spit on that by putting up 29.8 EPA in just 26 plays for an unearthly 1.15 EPA/Play. One point one five. There's been times in this season I've praised Tom Brady for 0.17, or Chad for 0.35, and here Peyton is putting up 1.15 in the playoffs. Great is not a big enough word for this. This performance needs more syllables. It was ostentatious. It was superfluous. He did not need to play this well. If Peyton put up half this performance the Colts still would've won easily, but here he is.

Recall how I said Jake Plummer is an up and down player? No difference here. This 23rd ranked Colts defence is the same 23rd ranked Colts defence he raked over the coals two weeks ago. While Jake will be back, that upward mobility on the contenders list I was talking about as a result of his great late season performances is gone. He can bring it back, but I need to see more consistency in his game next year, or we may be saying goodbyes. This is in stark contrast to his opponent.

Peyton Manning is creating upward mobility for himself that I wasn't sure I was prepared to give. Recall I've left the top tier of AFC QB empty for the whole season, and everybody has been jockeying for position within the second (or contender) tier. At times I've come perilously close to opening that door and declaring Peyton the elite of the elite, alone in the top tier, but I've refrained. I'm going to continue to do this, but I must admit to you the dam is about to break. If Peyton has another performance in these playoffs half as good as he just had, tier one will no longer sit empty.

Before we can get to the next chapter of the Peyton Manning saga, there is another chapter to write in the saga of Steve McNair. Again seemingly rewarded for losing the division, the Titans get to go on the road to play Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, while the Colts have to go on the road to play Trent Green and the Chiefs.

I know how ridiculous this assertion sounds that the Patriots are the easier matchup, but you have to keep yourself in the 2003 mindset. The Patriots have a QB that is a contender, but at this point is not close to passing Jake Plummer. He is sixth out of six. I understand the Patriots are on a twelve game winning streak, but throughout they've had games like the one against Miami where they won only due to two missed field goals. They gave the Colts chance after chance to beat them, but Tony Dungy decided to allow Peyton to throw only once in four plays from the two yard line. They allowed the lowly Houston Texans countless chances to beat them, etcetera. All things considered, this should've been the Chiefs' top spot, but it's not.

By this point, we all know Steve McNair is on two bad legs. We all know the McNair rule, but if there's any time that McNair can go on the road and get a win over a fellow contender, it's right now. He didn't play very well against the league's top defence last week, but this is the second ranked defence, and we've already seen Steve put up 30 on them in the week five game. The Titans are going to Foxborough as six point underdogs, but if Steve puts up 30 today, the McNair rule will be broken forever.

The Titans' first drive sets Steve up for none of that. The first play is a false start. The third is an illegal use of the hands penalty. It's a three and out for the Titans. In response, Tom Brady throws three passes and the Patriots are up 7-0.

Steve badly needs to respond here and he does. Aided by a roughing the passer penalty, the Titans score without seeing a third down on their drive, with McNair accounting for almost all of the offence. Within two plays on their next drive the Patriots are already back in Titan territory, and they convert a fourth and one from the 33 to keep the drive alive, but eventually the drive bogs down to an Adam Vinatieri field goal attempt which misses. It's still only 4:04 of the first. We've seen a lot of action so far.

After the missed field goal the Titans get the ball on their 39. This is a good spot to start a drive from, and considering how well they did on their only real drive, I wouldn't have bet on a first play interception.

A back breaking interception gives the Patriots the ball back right after their 11 play missed field goal drive with very minimal rest for the Tennessee defence, and it shows. They're able to force the Patriots to two third downs, including a third and 13 Brady pass that's converted, but can't get off the field as the Patriots score to take a 14-7 lead at the dawn of the second quarter.

Steve has a response to this too. Despite no help from Eddie George and his rush offence (as has been all season other than last week), Steve and Desmond Mason have marched the ball all the way to the New England 19. The next play is a sack of McNair to bring up third and 11. After a delay of game penalty, it's third and 16 from the 31, but that's okay. After a third down pass to the 28 it's 4th and 13, but this is still easy field goal range right?

Wrong my friend. Way wrong. The Titans' kicker Gary Anderson has a max range of about 45 yards (back in 2003 this was still acceptable), and the next entry in the play by play data is very telling. Here it is, verbatim: "PENALTY on TEN-C.Hentrich, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NE 28". Craig Hentrich is the Titans' punter. The Titans were so certain about punting that they took a delay of game to allow him to move back a little bit. All of this on the New England 28.

This is unbelievable folks. I know what you may be thinking. What does a delay of game penalty on Craig Hentrich have to do with the era of the big four? I think it's important to mention all of these things that our contenders (in this case Steve McNair) have no control over that impact the results of their games. This is an extremely obvious go for it situation, even though it's fourth and 13.

rbdsm's fourth down decision calculator gives the Titans a 13 percent chance of converting this fourth down, which I think is a little low, and it still likes to go for it in this spot. The Titans have the NFL's co-MVP for goodness sakes. Even if they fail, we can't forget they're on the New England 28. Most kickoff returns in this era get past the 28. What is Jeff Fisher scared of? Has he ever elected not to kick off because of the potential of his opponent getting the ball on their own 28? If not, he has no excuse to shoot his own team in the foot in this way.

Nevertheless, he does, and the Patriots now get a ball a whopping nine yards further back after a New England bounce on the punt. Great job Jeff. After the first play of the drive is a 13 yard run, he must've been feeling great about himself. Luckily for him, the Patriots do nothing aside from that, and he can forget about it as the Titans get the ball back.

This is where it becomes clear to me that Jeff Fisher feels the need to protect Steve McNair. On the ensuing drive, the co-MVP is allowed to drop back just twice (out of eight offensive plays on this drive), despite Eddie George really not giving them anything. Luckily, one of those dropbacks is a 29 yard completion to Desmond Mason that basically gets the Titans into field goal range on its own, but the attempt is blocked, so the score remains 14-7 Patriots. It stays that way as both teams enter the half.

There's only so much you can overcome in a football game. Jeff Fisher and the Titans remind me a lot a Herman Edwards and the Jets in that both teams are constantly shooting themselves in the foot with either silly play calling or special teams lapses and looking to their elite QBs to bail them out. Most of the time they can, that's what having a contender does for you, but in the playoffs that starts to give in.

Take this first half for example. Both teams have had one missed field goal. Both teams have had a fourth down decision inside the other team's 35. The Patriots, like a real team, went for it and got it. The Titans, like cowards, punted from the 28. None of this has anything with our two contenders, who aside from the McNair interception, which is the difference in the game right now, have fought each other to a draw so far.

Coming into the second half down seven, McNair cannot afford another draw. He has to outplay Tom Brady to give his team any chance of winning. He has to do this without much help from anybody else (except Desmond Mason), and yet it's somehow his standing in the tier list that's on the line here.

The life of a QB is an unfair existence.

The Titans' first touch of the second half still sees them down seven. The first two plays are each runs and it's immediately third and six. At this point watching the game back I'm screaming at the Titans to stop handing the ball off. Let the MVP win the game for you, and he tries, throwing for a first down on this and two other third downs on this drive alone. This was not easy, but the game is tied as Steve throws a third and goal touchdown pass to Desmond Mason.

After the Patriots' next offensive drive ends with a turnover on the Tennessee 47, the Titans have great field position and are in a very good position to take the lead of this game. This first down play is another where I just cannot describe what happens adequately. I have to let the play by play entry speak for itself: "F.Wycheck sacked at TEN 37 for -10 yards."

Frank Wycheck. Frank Wycheck sacked for a ten yard loss. Why would you let the NFL MVP, leader in every significant QB stat, Steve McNair throw the ball when you can have Frank Wycheck do it? Am I right?

It's beginning to personally offend me how little Jeff Fisher believes in his QB that just led his team to a 12 win season with a top ten offence despite having maybe one top 30 receiver in Desmond Mason, and having to carry Eddie George, who at this point was completely cooked. I understand the bad legs. I understand the McNair rule. I don't care. This is a playoff game. Don't have Frank Wycheck throwing your passes. I'm beginning to understand the greatness of Steve McNair if he had to carry this level of decision making around all season on his back.

Of course this promising drive is now doomed to end with a punt, and so the Patriots get the ball to start the fourth quarter. Luckily for Fisher, the Titans are again able to stop the Patriots, but have to bend all the way to their own 39 to do it. As a result, the Titans have to start on their own seven, and after running six offensive plays, with just one of them being a pass attempt, they give the Patriots the ball again. The dam cannot hold forever as the Patriots require just one first down to get into field goal range from their starting field position and they do convert, scoring a field goal to take a 17-14 lead at 4:11 of the fourth.

Four minutes and eleven seconds for Steve McNair to end the Patriots' 12 game win streak and send the Titans on the road either for a third go round with Indianapolis or a matchup with Trent Green in KC.

Finally unconstrained by the need to carry along a run game that was nothing more than an anchor on this day (Eddie George runs generated a 19% success rate in this game. Awful), Steve brings the Titans' offence to life. Despite a visible limp, within three plays the ball is on the Patriot 40. At the two minute warning, it's 2nd and three from the New England 33. Recall from earlier this is not field goal range. It's not even really close.

From here, there's an interesting intentional grounding penalty. I'm not quite sure if it would've been called in 2023, but it certainly was in 2003, so now it's third and 13 from the 43. The very next play is a 13 yard completion to turn this into a fourth and manageable, but hang on. Offensive holding on the play takes the Titans all the way back to their own 47. On third and 23 McNair unleashes a pass under heavy pressure that has no business being as accurate as it is and allows Drew Bennett to get his feet in bounds for an eleven yard completion.

Now faced with fourth and twelve, Steve does it again. He throws another pass that has no right to be so accurate with the pressure right in his face. It goes right to Drew Bennett's hands. Despite a bit of contact (that probably would've been called under modern rules), it's not an understatement to say this is a ball that should've been caught. Unfortunately for the story of Steve McNair, the ball bounces off of Drew Bennett's hands. Turnover on downs.

If Drew Bennett had been Reggie Wayne, it's first and ten from the New England 15 with 1:38 to go. Just keep that in your mind when you think back on the career of Steve McNair.

There were many chances to kill the Patriots dynasty before it got started. Looking back on it (without spoilers), this is one of the best ones. If not for the punt from the 28. If not for Jeff Fisher clearly feeling the need to protect McNair with a copious amount of rush calls. If not for the intentional grounding penalty. If not for Drew Bennett, maybe the 2003 Patriots fade away into the history books as a 14 win one and done playoff team

When you think of key contributors to the early portion of the Patriot dynasty, remember Drew Bennett.

I feel so bad for Steve McNair in the wake of this loss. This was a great playoff game, but for reasons that I'll get to (he wears number 18) this game is not remembered for the wonderful battle that it was. That's number one.

Number two is that Steve outplayed Tom Brady, not by a little bit either. Steve generated 0.17 EPA/Play, compared to Tom's 0.02. 53% of Steve's plays were successful, compared to just one third of Tom's. Tom also got much more help than Steve did, mostly because his coach was not Jeff Fisher.

Quick aside: I had to stop writing in the wake of this game out of pity for Steve McNair. I felt so bad for him that I just couldn't continue. To be clear, I'm a 22 year old man in Canada, who is a lifelong hater of the Tennessee Titans (being a Steelers fan). This story of McNair trying (with two bad legs) to carry a team that was kicking and screaming and lashing against him to the promised land only to ultimately come up short due primarily to factors out of his control got to me so much that I lost motivation to write about Peyton Manning and Trent Green.

Steve McNair has been dead since July 4, 2009, so my pity won't even symbolically help him in any way. I still cannot help it. Be it Jeff Fisher, or Craig Hentrich, or Drew Bennett, or Eddie George, if anybody had stepped up to help him today the Titans would've made the AFC Championship again. As it stands, McNair is not done as a contender, but his best chance is behind him.

From Tom Brady's perspective this game is nothing to write home about. He did sort of engineer a game winning drive, but not really, as the drive started from the Tennessee 40 and he completed one pass on it. He did win a playoff game. That should not be ignored, but he was comprehensively outdone by Steve McNair today. Considering next week it's either Peyton Manning or Trent Green, I would not be at all encouraged if I were a Patriots fan.

Jake Plummer did a great job of campaigning himself down to the sixth place with his playoff start in Indianapolis, so the door to fifth place was open for Tom, but he did not exactly walk briskly through it. If he plays better than this next week I'll have to move him above Jake. If not, he'll remain in sixth place going into 2004.

After all that excitement on a Saturday night, now it's Sunday afternoon, and there's one more second round game to go. It's the Indianapolis Colts against the Kansas City Chiefs, and it's the final chapter in Peyton's saga to the top tier. Recall Peyton has just played the best game in NFL playoff history against Denver, and if he plays half as good as that today, I've resolved to put him in the top tier.

On the other side is Trent Green, who's had a decidedly mixed season in 2003. He came into the season as a favourite of mine to step into tier one himself, but instead has fallen behind Steve McNair and Peyton Manning into fourth in the hierarchy, really through none of his own doing. He has not by any means played badly, he's only slightly worse than in 2002, yet due to the Chiefs' defence improving from awful to just bad the team has undergone a six win improvement from 2002.

The first important happening in this game has nothing to do with football. Mother Nature, normally a great friend of the Kansas City Chiefs, has decided that today she wants to see a QB enter the top tier, as the temperature at game time is going to be ten degrees Celsius, with no wind chill. Think of how much you hear about the bitter cold in KC around playoff time. Ten degrees on a January day in Kansas City is almost unheard of, and is no doubt a benefit to a dome team in the Colts, and their dome QB Peyton Manning. Yet another thing in 2003 that's gone wrong for Trent Green that he has absolutely no control over. Can't this guy ever catch a break?

As it turns out, absolutely not.

Initially, things look good for the Chiefs, as the Colts' first two plays of the game result in a third and nine situation, but after a twelve yard first down pass to Marvin Harrison, the Colts lock in. They see third down just once more as they drive down the field to a relatively easy opening drive touchdown.

This is just great. When Peyton gets off to a hot start, he generally doesn't slow down, and this is an extremely hot start. I know it's only the first drive of the game, but it is imperative that the Chiefs respond, and they do. Trent leads the Chiefs on a Plummer-esque drive, having to throw the ball just once (which to his credit is a 16 yard completion) to get to first and goal on the Colts' six. Priest Holmes has just set the NFL record for touchdowns in a season, so they let him try to close this one out, but he can't get it done, and the Chiefs have to settle for three.

7-3 doesn't sound so bad, but Peyton is white hot on the other side. On this day, any deficit is nearly insurmountable. The Chiefs must find a way to get him off the field.

They get another chance, as the Colts' first two plays of this drive are the same as the last, and it's third and nine on the 25. If the Chiefs can get off the field here and get their elite offence back on the field, they can flip the script and get to playing from the lead like they have all season, but their defence just can't pull through.

Yet another first down pass to Marvin Harrison pulls another Colts drive out of the muck, and the Colts don't even see a second down before they score again to bring their lead to 14-3. I know I said it was imperative to score before, but on this next drive it really feels like the Chiefs' season is on the line, and what they do is very telling.

When thinking back on this era of Chiefs football, people like to be very dismissive of Trent Green, and lump a lot of praise onto Priest Holmes and the rush attack. To its credit, that rush attack was by far the best in the league, but they say you can see who a human really is when they're faced with a life or death situation. Teams are no different.

Right now, this drive is a life or death situation for the 2003 Kansas City Chiefs. Would you like to know their play distribution? Five runs, seven passes.

In the biggest spot of their season, the Chiefs felt that it would be better to rely on Trent Green and the pass game, and they were right. Trent tears the Colts' defence to ribbons, including two clutch third and 12 conversions to move the score to 14-10, and keep the Chiefs' season alive.

I know I haven't been able to talk about Trent Green very much this season, but this one drive tells me everything I need to know. The Chiefs themselves just admitted to you that Trent is the real deal. If they didn't believe in him they would've just ridden Priest again, but they didn't. With their lives on the line, they did what Jeff Fisher just couldn't seem to do. They let their contender carry them, and because of that they're still in this game.

All of that is great, but what are we going to do about Peyton Manning?

The Colts respond with another touchdown drive that frankly looks easy, and Trent's season saving performance is already forgotten as the Colts are up 21-10. It seems like Trent is going to have to save the Chiefs' bacon if they're going to have any chance at it.

With 4:24 left in the second quarter, the Chiefs are going to have the ball last before the half, and they get the ball out of the half. If they can score touchdowns each time, they'll all of a sudden be in the lead. Again faced with a key situation, the Chiefs again go to Trent, with four of the first five plays being passes. These plays are capped by a touchdown pass to Tony Gonzalez.

With a 21-17 deficit, it's not even the two minute warning yet. I'm sure the Chiefs fans were thinking that they'd left Peyton too much time to score, but then they hear the announcement. OPI on Tony Gonzalez. It's total bogus too. With today's more lax rules where receivers can do basically whatever they want, this never gets called, but nevertheless. Instead of a 21-17 deficit, this drive has to continue.

Two plays later (coming from behind the sticks due to the penalty) the Chiefs face fourth down from the Colts' 28. Does this sound weirdly familiar to anybody else? This is the exact same spot the Titans were in yesterday, and they decided to punt. Dick Vermeil believes in his man though, so the Chiefs go for this and get it. Hallelujah.

Unfortunately, after two more plays it's third down again, and on third down Trent throws a perfect pass to Johnnie Morton to keep the drive going, but it's dropped. Now forced into a field goal try, the OPI penalty is looming large. After the try is missed, it looms even larger, and KC goes into the half down 21-10.

How has this happened? Due to a confluence of bad luck (again) and bad execution by players other than himself, Trent is going into half with a WP of 23 percent, despite having killed the Indianapolis defence all day. Part of me wonders what he must be thinking in this moment. Is he bitter that nothing can seem to go right for him? Or is it more of a sadness?

Whatever feeling Trent has going on at the half is without doubt amplified, as on the second play of the second half Priest Holmes rips off a 48 yard run, but fumbles the ball at the end of it, and the Colts get the ball back on their own 22. Yet again the Chiefs score no points.

Priest Holmes put the ball on the ground one time all season. Ball security is a non-issue, and yet the football gods decided that this would be a great time for him to do it a second time.

I'll repeat to you again. Trent Green cannot catch a break.

Through what can only be described as a miracle of nature, the Colts are held to three points on their ensuing possession, so the deficit is only 24-10 at 9:17 of the third quarter when the Chiefs get the ball back. Trent takes almost no part in this drive as each Priest run (aside from goal line) goes for seven yards or more to bring the score back to 24-17.

After another easy Colts touchdown, the Chiefs get a kickoff return out of Dante Hall to bring the score back to 31-24. On the Colts next drive there's finally hope. After yet again starting a drive with two bad plays and a third and eight, this is a chance for the Chiefs to get off the field. This is a quick chance for me to note that the crowd noise for this game is legendary. Go back and watch some clips, and listen to the crowd pop when they stop the Colts on this third down. It puts goosebumps on your skin to hear how loud it is.

Here's the issue. The Chiefs had twelve people on the field. Five yard penalty, and we have to do it again. Lightning can't strike twice and Peyton throws a 17 yard pass to Reggie Wayne. The Colts again never look back as they storm down the field to make it 38-24 at 11:07 of the fourth and cut the Chiefs' WP to six percent.

From here the Chiefs need a miracle to win, and they never get it. Trent Green again leads the Chiefs down the field for a score, including two clutch fourth down passes, but it's no use. Despite scoring with better than four minutes left, the Chiefs never see the ball again, and the OPI call from the second quarter looms large to this day in the memory of Chiefs fans as Peyton and the Colts take this game 38-31.

This was a heroic performance out of Trent Green. From the second drive of the game onwards, Trent was faced with having to save the Chiefs' season every last time he went out there. With the exception of the aforementioned OPI call on a touchdown pass and the fumble out of Priest, who never ever fumbles, he scored a touchdown at every single time of asking.

I'm willing to call this a legendary performance. In the end it works out to 0.51 EPA/Play, which is a performance roughly on par to Patrick Mahomes in the 2022 Super Bowl, all of this with Peyton Manning on the other side having another of the best games of his career.

I'll say this and mean it. If these Chiefs would've gotten the Titans in the second round like the Patriots did, it would've been a walkover. If this game against the Colts could've been pushed back a week to be played in colder weather, you never know, but I'd bet on the Chiefs. As it stands, their season is over, but Trent Green proved a lot to me today. He'll be back.

On the other side, the debate is over. The top tier opens its ranks and welcomes in Peyton Manning as its first member. No longer a contender, Peyton is the undisputed top dog in the AFC right now. In two consecutive playoff games, Peyton put up performances of 1.15 and then 0.90 EPA/Play. Both are off the charts great.

The NFL playoffs haven't seen a performance as good as either one since, with only one possible exception. Josh Allen's 'Perfect game' in 2021 can't match either of these performances. Patrick Mahomes has never matched either. Neither of the combatants in the 2017 Super Bowl can match them. The only performance that could be considered as good as these is Philip Rivers in his 2007 playoff matchup against the Colts, with the caveat that he did not finish that game due to injury.

Two performances. Each have been matched maybe once since, and even then it was by a player that played three quarters. These playoffs are without doubt the greatest playoffs of all time by one player, and they're not finished yet.

Next week is the finale of the AFC season. It's a rematch between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts, this time in Foxborough. All of what I've just said in the prior three paragraphs serves to underscore the utter shock that I feel when I look back on this AFC Championship game.

First things first. Mother Nature, who had turned her back on Trent Green last week, decided to play nice with Tom Brady, as this game is to be played on an extremely wet and cold night in New England. Peyton is a dome QB. Even the greatest dome QBs struggle in the wet and in the cold. Tonight has both. This is a definite advantage to the home squad.

There's a big elephant in the room here that I have to address now. This game is extremely hard to watch with modern sensibilities.

Why is this? Well, the Patriots decided the best way to defend against Peyton and the Colts (correctly, I might add) is to send pressure at Peyton and commit flagrant holding penalties on his receivers. As such, Peyton spent the whole game with no time in the pocket and nobody open, because his receivers were being held out of every break all night.

To give an example, go to the game replay and go to 6:35 of the third. It's a third down pass from Peyton to Marvin Harrison that ultimately falls incomplete. On this play, Harrison is covered by Ty Law, and passed off to Rodney Harrison. In the process, he is obviously, flagrantly, and blatantantly held by each of them. Two obvious flags on the same play (looking at it with modern eyes), and no flags thrown.

This is the story of this game. I feel no need to go into more detail than this. It would be boring anyway. Trust me. You don't want my usual level of granularity on this game.

Peyton threw four interceptions on account of having nobody open all day and finished with a putrid -0.36 EPA/Play for this game. Tom Brady did nothing to impress himself, and finished with 0.01 EPA/Play, somehow managing to play even worse than last week and still come out a winner.

This game was a debacle for everybody involved. Nobody came out looking better, except perhaps the Colts' defence, and in the ensuing offseason the NFL changed its pass interference rules to ensure that nothing like it would ever happen again. This is the note the 2003 AFC season goes out on.

So that's it. It's over. Tom Brady and the Patriots go on to win a second Super Bowl (notably absent in the Super Bowl are the clear and obvious holds that were so prevalent in the AFC Championship. I suspect the Patriots got a memo that they wouldn't be allowed to mar another big game), but again Tom did nothing in the AFC playoffs to impress anybody. He does play well in the Super Bowl, but one game samples mean nothing to me. Tom had a wide open door to walk through to get out of his distant sixth on the condenders list, and he was unable to walk through it.

So, what's the story of the 2003 season in the AFC QB picture?

The clear standout was Peyton Manning, who comes out of this season smelling like a rose, in a tier by himself atop the conference. Next season contains another five games against contenders, so he'll have to fight to keep his top spot. Out of his seven (!) games against contenders in 2003, he won five, so I have plenty of faith he can do it.

Trent Green, despite going one and done in the playoffs, comes out a lot better than he went in. One game can prove a lot in the NFL, and now we've seen what Trent can do with the Chiefs' season on the line. With the rules set to be more friendly to passers in 2004 than ever before, watch for Trent's numbers to bounce back to where they were in 2002. Trent's only issue is that he can't miss every contender next year like he did in this one, as his regular season slate contains a projected three games against them, and one against Peyton (remember, no longer a contender). Trent Green will be 34 in 2004, so he's running out of good years, but he'll be in prime position to make use of this next one.

Somewhat forgotten due to the Jets missing the playoffs, Chad Pennington finally gets to come into a season (for the first time in his career) as a starter in 2004. The Jets are also looking at a fairly weak schedule, featuring only two games against contenders, both against Tom Brady. However, they also have some games against some potential young stars looking to take a chunk out of a contender themselves, such as games against Carson Palmer, and Drew Brees. If Chad can stay injury free throughout 2004, watch for the Jets to take their place back in the AFC playoffs.

Steve McNair is staring down offseason surgery to repair the bone spurs in his ankle. This won't be easy to come back from, but most of the Titans difficult games (two against contenders, two against Peyton), are pushed back to the end of the season, so this may help. If Steve can maintain his mobility through these leg surgeries, and the Titans can bring him in some more help on offence, look for the Titans to end up back in the playoffs for 2004.

What is there to say about Jake Plummer? I am utterly confounded as to what to do about him on the list. His schedule also features three games against contenders and one against Peyton, mostly pushed back to the end of the year, so I'm prepared to give it until then to see what Jake can truly be. Above all, I need more consistency from him next season if he wants to move up the ranks.

Last but not least is Tom Brady. Now coming off a second Super Bowl championship, that doesn't change the fact that everybody knows that these championships have almost nothing to do with him. The one caveat here is that the new NFL rules are playing right into the hands of what the Patriots like to do on offence. They're looking to support short passing games due to the limited amount of allowable contact, which used to be much greater. As such, I give Tom Brady (as well as Trent Green for the same reason) a great chance to get an artificial jump up the QB hierarchy on account of the new rules. The Patriots' schedule contains three games against contenders, plus one against Peyton, so Tom will have a suitable amount of chances to be tested.

The prevailing storyline going into the 2004 season is who will benefit most from the new passing rules, and how high passing numbers can go. Of course we know the answer to each of those questions. We know who will benefit most from the new rules, and we know hot the passing around the league will get.

Click back next time to see the greatest QB season of all time.