The Truth About Playoff Tom Brady in the 2000s
The definitive statement on Tom Brady's playoff performance throughout the 2000s decade.
Welcome back to my Sports Passion Project, where in my last few posts (Steve McNair and the entire Trent Green series) we’ve done quite a bit of clowning on Tom Brady.
As long time readers know, I don’t like being so negative, but what I’ve said are facts. In Steve McNair’s epic 2003, he lost to Tom Brady despite handily outplaying him. Twice. That’s a fact. It’s also a fact that Trent Green lost five times while scoring at least 24 points in 2002 alone, while Tom (drafted in 2000) took until 2011 to get that many shootout losses.
Is Tom Brady a very lucky player? Yes, and by this point I think everybody knows that. Nevertheless, Tom built himself up a reputation of being a big time playoff player. This has led to two camps forming. The first is the Tom Brady stans, whose arguments are generally littered with outcome bias, claiming that even in the games Tom played badly, he still won, meanwhile criticizing people like Josh Allen for playing fantastic and not winning.
Considering football is a team game, and a QB is only one player, I don’t think this approach of focusing on team outcomes makes very much sense, and I don’t have a lot of respect for these people.
The other camp is not necessarily a group I’d like to associate myself with either. It claims that though Tom won seven championships, he was not that great of a playoff performer. I’ve heard Tom described before as ‘the head of a def/special teams merchant’ by people that identify themselves as members of this camp. I’m not entirely sure this group is correct either, because it’s not like Tom doesn’t have great individual playoff performances over the years.
As far as Tom Brady goes, I’m a man without a camp. Is he as unlucky as Steve McNair or Trent Green? No. Is he as individually talented as players like Peyton Manning or Dan Marino who didn’t have the playoff success he had? No. These are two things I think the Brady stans must get better at accepting.
However, Tom Brady is not Trent Dilfer. He is not 2008 Ben Roethlisberger. He is not 2015 Peyton Manning. He did not get carried all the way to the championship on seven different occasions. That’s ludicrous, but some will claim it anyway.
Quite frankly, I have no stance on the playoff abilities of Tom Brady, but we’re going to go along for the ride as I create one.
The truth must lie somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. I’m going to find out where this truth is, and I’m going to do it by touching on every single one of Tom Brady’s 48 career playoff games, plus two win-and-in regular season games that served the same purpose as playoff games, for 50 total Tom Brady starts, and grading them on a five point scale. To avoid outcome bias, I will give my grade before revealing the outcome of the game, but I cannot promise outcome will not factor in at all.
The scale goes as follows:
Not Good Enough: This is the worst possible tier a game can go into. My definition of not good enough is for a QB to play bad enough that with a normal level of help, his team is more than 50% likely to lose. As with all other tiers in this scale, it’s not purely statistical, but I’m going to tell you right now that it’s really hard to generate 0 EPA or worse and stay out of this tier.
Just to be clear, giving your team a less than 50/50 chance to win does not automatically mean you lose. Wins can still be given the ‘Not Good Enough’ grade.
Example L while being ‘Not Good Enough’: Joe Flacco, 2023 Wild Card vs Houston
Example W while being ‘Not Good Enough’: Jimmy Garoppolo, 2021 Divisional vs Green Bay
Okay: This is the second lowest tier, and it’s just as it sounds. You’re giving your team about a 50/50 chance to win if both QBs were to have an equal level of help. Generally, games will be given the okay tag if it comes down to a key turnover, one big fourth down conversion, or something else that could’ve gone either way. Games with only slightly more than 0 EPA will generally end up here.
Example L: Jordan Love, 2023 Divisional vs San Francisco
Example W: Jalen Hurts, 2022 NFC Championship vs San Francisco
Good: Since playoff standards are high, good is the middle ground. A team is more than 50% likely to win with their QB playing this well, but it would not be the biggest shock in the world for them to be outdueled. Games where both teams score in the 20s generally feature both QBs having a ‘good’ playoff game.
Example L: Brock Purdy, 2023 Super Bowl
Example W: Patrick Mahomes, 2023 Super Bowl
Great: A great playoff game gives a QB’s team a really good chance to win. Most of the time, if a QB is playing great, his team will not lose, and if he does lose, both teams will likely have to score 30+. However, it is still possible to lose and have ‘great’ attached to your performance.
Example L: Russell Wilson, 2012 Divisional vs Atlanta
Example W: Patrick Mahomes, 2022 Super Bowl
All-Time Great: A QB playing an all-time great playoff game gives his team an almost certain victory. Ideally, an all-time great performance will happen in a blowout. However, it is still theoretically possible to lose if your opponent is also having an all-time great game.
Example L: Josh Allen, 2021 Divisional vs Kansas City
Example W: Jordan Love, 2023 Wild Card vs Dallas.
Now that we understand the rungs of the ladder, we have 48 Tom Brady playoff games to sift through. I’m going to give each and every one of them a grade on this scale, and then we can see for ourselves just how good of a playoff player Tom Brady was. This will come out in two parts, with the first going over Tom’s performance in the 2000s, and the second going over the rest.
Let’s do it, beginning with perhaps his most famous playoff moment of all.
2001 Divisional vs Oakland Raiders
Tom stats: 32-52, 312 Yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, -0.015 EPA/Play
We begin with the Tuck Rule game.
While the video review that happens at the end is a famous moment in NFL history, people forget the Patriots were down 13-3 going into the fourth quarter of this one, and needed more than one call to make the comeback they made. People also forget that the Patriots’ horrendous rush offence forced Tom to have to try to bail the team out over and over, which explains the 52 pass attempts despite the wind and snow.
He failed a lot at doing this, which is why the Patriots had just three points going into the fourth quarter, but in the end he did finish around zero EPA/Play, which is respectable given the conditions. Taking all into account, this is right on the border between Not Good Enough and Okay, but I’m going to give Tom the benefit of the doubt here.
Verdict: Okay
Game outcome: Patriots W 16-13
2001 AFC Championship vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Tom stats: 12-18, 115 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, -0.084 EPA/Play
We now reach a situation we can’t be so nice.
Tom Brady actually gets injured in this game, and misses better than half of it, but for the plays he was in the game, the Patriots scored no offensive points, and coasted the whole game based on the lead built by two early special teams touchdowns.
Verdict: Not Good Enough
Game Outcome: Patriots W 24-17
2001 Super Bowl vs St. Louis Rams
Tom stats: 16-27, 145 Yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, -0.105 EPA/Play
Many people forget that after the disaster that was the AFC Championship game, where Drew Bledsoe came in and played a lot better than Tom did, there were serious doubts over whether Tom was going to start the Super Bowl at all. Tom did start this game, but looking back on it, this was absolutely the incorrect choice.
The 2001 Rams were a fantastic defence and I understand that, but Tom played terribly this game, wasting a first half where the Rams could do nothing but shoot their own toes. With how badly the Rams played in the first half of this Super Bowl, to score only seven offensive points and go into the half with only a 14-3 lead is a massive failure, and nearly lost the Patriots a championship they should’ve won easily.
Tom gets a lot of credit for the game winning FG drive, but I don’t think he should. If Drew Bledsoe were in this game the Patriots could’ve been up 20 by half and not had to worry about any of that.
Verdict: Not Good Enough
Game Outcome: Patriots W 20-17
2002 Week 16 vs New York Jets
Tom stats: 19-37, 133 Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, -0.257 EPA/Play
I know what you’re saying. This is not a playoff game.
It is though. The defending Super Bowl champions have gone through a nasty Super Bowl hangover in the 2002 season, and have now found themselves in a win-and-in regular season game with the New York Jets. If the Patriots lose, their season is over. If they win, they get to continue. Isn’t that the definition of a playoff game?
This one counts.
For the third time in a row now, Tom lays an egg. Once again, a special teams touchdown keeps the Patriots in this game far longer than they had any right to be, but in a game with their Super Bowl repeat on the line, they score just ten offensive points (three of those strictly off of shanked punt field position) and instead of repeating, the Patriots miss the playoffs, and become the climax of Chad Pennington’s fantastic 2002 story.
Verdict: Not Good Enough
Game Outcome: Patriots L 17-30
2003 Divisional vs Tennessee Titans
Tom stats: 21-41, 201 Yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0.058 EPA/Play
Take a shot. We’re talking about the 2003 AFC.
Now we move to the 2003 season, where the Patriots’ defence is better than it will ever be (with the exception of 2019) for the rest of Tom’s career, and it shows. This game opens up strong, with the Patriots scoring two quick touchdowns on their first three touches, but from here (despite good help from the rush offence) it stalls. While Steve McNair is doing heroic things on the other side (click here for more detail), Tom is mostly watching, and not scoring.
New England can’t score any points for better than 30 minutes as this game spends an eternity with the score stuck at 14-7. When the Titans do tie this game, there is still no response. In the end, the field position game finally nets the Patriots a field goal on a drive featuring one first down to take a 17-14 lead, and Drew Bennett drops the pass that could’ve ended the Patriots’ season, and dynasty.
Another borderline game. If Drew Bennett had caught the fourth down pass and set the Titans up in the red zone, this almost certainly would’ve been a loss. Not Good Enough in all of the final three quarters, but with a defence this good, two touchdowns on the first three tries is good enough to avoid ‘Not Good Enough’ for me.
Verdict: Okay
Game Outcome: Patriots W 17-14
2003 AFC Championship vs Indianapolis Colts
Tom stats: 22-37, 237 Yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0.063 EPA/Play
Everybody who knows me knows that this is my least favourite NFL game of all time. The best playoff run any QB has ever been on (Peyton Manning’s 2003) is ruined because the officials refuse to call the blatant holding, illegal contact, and Pass Interference calls that were happening all throughout this game.
I have massive respect for this from the Belichick side. This game is probably his best performance as an NFL Head Coach. I have no respect for it from the Brady side, as despite six Colt turnovers (counting the safety) the Patriots can score just 24 points. The Colts got the ball back in the fourth quarter down just seven points with a chance to tie this game, despite turning the ball over six times.
This reminds me a lot of the 2001 Super Bowl, with Tom’s inadequacy giving teams that should’ve been easily defeated chance after chance to come back. The Colts failed to do so, but that’s got nothing to do with Tom.
Verdict: Not Good Enough
Game Outcome: Patriots W 24-14
2003 Super Bowl vs Carolina Panthers
Tom Stats: 32-48, 354 Yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 0.337 EPA/Play
This is a weird one to try to grade.
It’s a weird game in general. The Patriots came in the prohibitive favourites against a Carolina team that wasn’t very good, played like the prohibitive favourites, and won, but a whole lot of nonsense happened in the middle. This is the first time in Tom Brady’s career that lady luck was firmly against him, but he was up for the challenge.
This game swings on two Adam Vinatieri missed field goals. Without them, this game could’ve been the blowout it should’ve been. Even with them, Tom scores at every time of asking except once after the four minute mark of the third quarter, with Carolina doing the exact same thing to keep him honest, but it never truly feels like the Patriots are going to lose.
This is another borderline performance, this time between Good and Great. Purely since this game did require a game winning drive at the end (something that is a negative, not a positive), even though that game winning drive is only because of the two missed field goals, I think it’s going to go in the Good category.
Verdict: Good
Game Outcome: Patriots W 32-29
2004 Divisional vs Indianapolis Colts
Tom stats: 18-27, 144 Yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0.079 EPA/Play
This is the prototypical okay performance. An NFL team can either lose or win in roughly equal measure with a QB playing this way. As it turns out, the Patriots won.
Throw a parade.
Verdict: Okay
Game Outcome: Patriots W 20-3
2004 AFC Championship vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Tom stats: 14-21, 207 Yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 0.56 EPA/Play
This was a big prove-it game for Tom. Recall the last time he’d been in Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship game it’d nearly destroyed his NFL career as a starter. This time there would be no such problem. This is the playoff game where Tom truly comes into his own for the first time.
What happened on this day is what should’ve happened in the 2001 Super Bowl, and in the 2003 AFC Championship. Instead of giving a team having a rough first half chance after chance after chance to come back, like Tom did on those days, this time he pounced on the Steelers having a bad offensive half by going into the break with a 24-3 lead. He merely nursed the lead from there, but that’s all he had to do.
Verdict: Great
Game Outcome: Patriots W 41-27
2004 Super Bowl vs Philadelphia Eagles
Tom stats: 23-33, 236 Yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 0.164 EPA/Play
Much like last year, the Patriots come into the Super Bowl as definitive favourites, never show any sign anywhere of being the worse team, and win, but have to endure some stuff in the middle to get there.
This was not a great game from Tom Brady, but (with his lacklustre rush offence holding him down) he was able to give his team just barely enough, especially in the two key touchdown drives around the halftime break, in a game that the Patriots easily could’ve lost.
If not for a key fumble on the Philadelphia four yard line, this game wouldn’t have been anywhere near as close as it was, but since Tom committed that fumble, he must own it himself. He’s the reason this game was so close, but he’s also the reason his team won.
Verdict: Good
Game Outcome: Patriots W 24-21
The original Patriot dynasty is now over, so this provides a good chance to stop and look at Tom as a playoff performer so far. In the ten games we’ve looked at, here is the running tally:
All-Time Great: 0
Great: 1
Good: 2
Okay: 3
Not Good Enough: 4
I suppose I can understand now why people don’t respect Tom’s playoff acumen in the first dynasty. He just doesn’t really have any. Look at all those poor performances.
As far as Super Bowls to give Tom credit for, 2004 was a very good and probably underrated playoff run. He gets full credit for that. 2003 on the other hand was really light. He almost certainly should’ve lost one of the two AFC games, giving that many chances to Steve McNair and Peyton Manning to come back on him. It’s really tough to give a QB much credit for that Super Bowl either, but at least he mostly stood there in accomplished nothing. He can’t even say that about 2001.
In 2001, Tom did a great deal of harm to the Patriots’ chances of winning the Super Bowl. Particularly in the Super Bowl itself, Tom took what was almost a certain victory and turned it into a nail biter, and if not injured partway into the 2001 AFC Championship he might’ve done it there too. All of this on top of the Tuck Rule game. Tom not only gets no credit from me for this Super Bowl, but the 2001 playoffs actually harm Tom’s playoff reputation quite a bit.
No worries though. Tom can still save it, because we have quite a few more playoff performances to go through. We’re only through ten so far. Let’s get back into the chronology.
2005 Wild Card vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Tom stats: 15-27, 201 Yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 0.21 EPA/Play
The Patriots had fallen off badly in 2005, to the point where they could barely win their AFC East division. They likely wouldn’t have won any playoff games at all this season, if not presented with this gift of a matchup.
I’m tempted to talk about just how much of a disaster this game was for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but this is an article about Tom Brady, so I won’t. It’s hilarious though, so it may get its own article in the future, but for our purposes here, it mostly happened around Tom as he stood and watched and did nothing to mess it up.
Verdict: Good
Game Outcome: Patriots W 28-3
2005 Divisional vs Denver Broncos
Tom stats: 20-36, 341 Yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 0.069 EPA/Play
This was the day that made it abundantly clear the dynasty was over. The Patriots were just outmanned and overmatched by the 2005 Denver Broncos. True to form, the Broncos struggled in the first half offensively, but Tom failed to capitalise, only this time the outcome was different.
For once not the vastly superior team, the Patriots were punished severely for giving Denver a whole half to figure it out. There were chances to win this game, and I’m going to give Tom an okay grade for doing an alright job moving the offence, but it’s an embarrassing loss that forces New England back to the drawing board.
Verdict: Okay
Game Outcome: Patriots L 13-27
2006 Wild Card vs New York Jets
Tom stats: 22-34, 212 Yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 0.36 EPA/Play
Not much to say about this one. A merciless blowout of an overmatched Jets team.
Verdict: Good
Game Outcome: Patriots W 37-16
2006 Divisional vs San Diego Chargers
Tom stats: 27-51, 280 Yards, 2 TD, 3 INT, -0.014 EPA/Play
This game, on the other hand, I have plenty to say about.
The luck required for the Patriots to win this game was absurd, so absurd that this game is 100% getting an article of its own. It’s already in the works. The Chargers got inside Patriot territory but failed to score not one, not two, not three, but four times in the first quarter alone. That is absolutely absurd, all the while Tom was going three and out all but one touch in that quarter, but coming out of it with a lead.
I’m trying to be real here, but I’m sorry. That one paragraph is so ridiculously lucky that it could only happen to Tom Brady. The Patriots had two drives in the whole first half that went more than three plays, but come out behind just 14-10, into a second half where the Chargers get across midfield but fail to score three times more.
Of course, how can we forget, this is the game where Tom Brady throws the game losing interception into the arms of Marlon McCree, who then inexplicably does not go down, but fumbles the ball back to the Patriots, who go on to score the game tying touchdown.
This is the Tom Brady luck game. All of the Tom Brady haters get their chance to rejoice right now. If anything (even one thing) goes right for the Chargers, they win, and it wouldn’t have been very difficult either, as the Patriots were overmatched here, but nothing did. If you don’t like the grade I give this game, you open yourself up for me to accuse you of outcome bias, because the Patriot offence is the very last reason they won this.
Verdict: Not Good Enough
Game Outcome: Patriots W 24-21
2006 AFC Championship vs Indianapolis Colts
Tom stats: 21-34, 232 Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 0.098 EPA/Play
From here on in, Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning is a tremendously scary matchup for Tom, and should be avoided at all costs.
At last Tom learned what the rest of the league felt like playing against Peyton Manning, as the Patriots built a big 21-3 first half lead, but then went three drives in a row without scoring and their lead was gone before they could even realise what was happening. The Patriots did manage to get one touchdown in the second half (off a big kickoff return starting them at the Indianapolis 21), but other than that were mostly silent.
This is another game the Tom Brady stans want you to forget ever happened. The Indianapolis Colts were the worst defence in football in 2006. Literally 32nd out of 32, and Tom failed multiple chances to stick the dagger in. If Tom were the clutch God in 2006 that his reputation said he was, this could’ve been an easy victory, but it wasn’t. Tom’s stats in this game could likely support a Good grade, but he didn’t even get to 0.1 EPA/Play, and taking into account this was against the very worst defence in the NFL and this was all he could do, I’m knocking it down a peg.
Verdict: Okay
Game Outcome: Patriots L 34-38
2007 Divisional vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Tom stats: 26-28, 262 Yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 0.662 EPA/Play
Moving from two games Tom gets way too much credit for to one that he doesn’t get anywhere near enough credit for.
Things had changed a lot by 2007 for both these teams. The Patriots had just gone undefeated in the regular season and been the second best offence of the new millennium (2004 Colts), but their reward is a matchup with a really tough Jaguars team.
These Jaguars are better than you remember. They are no longer the clown show they were in 2005. These 2007 Jaguars finished the season with 12.05 Expected Wins, one of the toughest matchups any number one seed in any conference has ever gotten, and they played like it too.
Unlike most playoff games we’ve gone over so far, at no point did these Jaguars struggle on offence. Their QB David Garrard generated 0.442 EPA/Play on this day. If Tom had played like he did the year before, the Patriots would’ve lost, and would’ve lost by multiple possessions to a Jacksonville offence that was here to give it their best shot. David Garrard gets a grade of ‘great’ for this game.
You may laugh and forget about it, because it’s the Jaguars, but that’s tremendously unfair to the best playoff performance of Tom Brady’s career so far. I can’t stress enough that the Patriots needed Tom in a big way today, likely more than they’d ever needed him before, and Tom responded by playing so great it buried David’s great day in the ground.
Verdict: All-Time Great
Game Outcome: Patriots W 31-20
2007 AFC Championship vs San Diego Chargers
Tom stats: 22-33, 209 Yards, 2 TD, 3 INT, -0.091 EPA/Play
Tom always did have good timing.
Look at those stats up there. They’re awful.
I often wonder how a player can play so badly one week after having his career defining day.
The Patriot offence gave the Chargers chance after chance after chance to end their undefeated season, and San Diego continuously failed, failing the Patriots all the way into the Super Bowl.
Philip Rivers was trying to play this game through a torn ACL, and he figured out that trying to play QB without moving one leg is impossible, and because of that the Patriots won. We saw last week that I will give Tom Brady his due credit if I think he deserves it, but for this performance he isn’t due any.
Verdict: Not Good Enough
Game Outcome: Patriots W 21-12
2007 Super Bowl vs New York Giants
Tom stats: 29-48, 266 Yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0.03 EPA/Play
This was another bad game from Tom.
While it was better than the game before (it’s hard to get worse than the game before), it comes without the benefit of being against one of the NFL’s best defences (second ranked San Diego Chargers). The 2007 New York Giants are fine (tenth) at defence, but they shouldn’t have been able to hem Tom Brady in this effectively.
I say all the time that Super Bowls don’t count as much as conference playoff games in my eyes, because the unnatural two week rest and preparation time leads to games not following patterns and not really making any sense. The Tom Brady stans laugh at me when I say that, so now I get to laugh at them when their man’s bad habit of constantly letting inferior teams stick around finally bites him, and he loses to that vastly inferior opposition.
The one fourth quarter touchdown drive moves this up to okay, basically by itself, but it could’ve very easily been worse.
Verdict: Okay
Game Outcome: Patriots L 14-17
2009 Wild Card vs Baltimore Ravens
Tom stats: 23-42, 154 Yards, 2 TD, 3 INT, -0.58 EPA/Play
Yet another game the Tom Brady stans really want you to forget about. We’re going to get to some good ones in part two. I promise, but there are two more bad ones to get out of the way in part one.
What a disaster this was.
The Baltimore defence in 2009 was really good, the fourth best in the NFL, but there is no defence good enough to excuse a -0.58 EPA/Play game. While Tom has constantly put his team in bad positions through the years, he’s never lost a game singlehandedly like this before.
In fact, Tom’s -28.4 total EPA for this game makes it a real candidate for the worst playoff game any QB has ever had.
Verdict: Not Good Enough
Game Outcome: Patriots L 14-33
2010 Divisional vs New York Jets
Tom stats: 29-45, 299 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, -0.11 EPA/Play
I know this game happens in 2010, but it’s much more befitting the character of 2000s Tom Brady than 2010s Tom Brady, so here it stays.
Yet another bad playoff game.
As we know, Tom has had a lot of bad games over the years, but not a lot of them went like this.
The Patriots came into this one as ten point favourites, but spent almost the entire game behind, most of that time behind two possessions, and there was nothing Tom and the Patriot offence could do about it, getting comprehensively outplayed by Mark Sanchez. Even in the fourth quarter, where Tom is supposed to be so great, he whiffed on his only real chance to make this a real game. I’m trying to find some positives, but there really weren’t any. This was a bleak day for the Patriot offence, and the Patriots in general.
By the way, the elite Jet defence you’re thinking of happened in 2009. This is 2010. This Jet defence ranked 15th in the NFL against the pass. No excuses there.
Verdict: Not Good Enough
Game Outcome: Patriots L 21-28
We’ve reached the end of the line for this part of the Tom Brady playoff chronicle.
Don’t look now, but after things started looking up in the 2004 playoffs, Tom has now gone five consecutive postseasons (2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010) without doing much of anything to help his team. However, there is one shining beacon in here. One thing that Tom did that nobody else could’ve done.
When his team needed him the very most (2007 David Garrard is by far the best opposing QB performance Tom has ever had to deal with), he gave them his best performance, showing up big in a clutch moment that he does not get anywhere near enough credit for. The Patriots did not go undefeated, but if they had, this 2007 Divisional game where Tom fended off an extremely game Jacksonville Jaguars team would be brought up a lot more.
There’s been a few other okay performances in there too, but going into this I did not expect to see so many truly bad performances.
There are games like against San Diego in 2006 and 2007, where Tom was begging to lose but the Chargers offence couldn’t get it done. There are also the games against Baltimore and the New York Jets twice, where Tom was begging to lose and the opposing offence did get it done. We’re only 20 games in, but as of yet, Tom’s playoff form is really not impressing me.
Let’s look at the running tally as of the end of 2010:
All-Time Great: 1 (2007 Jacksonville)
Great: 1
Good: 4
Okay: 6
Not Good Enough: 8
As you can see, 14 of Tom’s 20 playoff appearances so far are Okay or worse. The one all-time great game makes up for some of that, but at this point it’s difficult to deny that Tom has been more fortunate than anything to have played as many playoff games as he has.
Below, I’ve done this same grading exercise with Patrick Mahomes, who much like Tom has won three quick championships to start his career.
Here is Patrick’s running tally:
All-Time Great: 3
Great: 6
Good: 6
Okay: 1
Not Good Enough: 2
Patrick has only played 18 playoff games so far, so it’s not quite apples to apples, but to give Tom the best possible chance in this argument, let’s assume each of Patrick’s next two playoff games are total disasters. That would still mean of Patrick’s first 20 playoff games, only five would be Okay or worse, and he’ll have lost four of those games.
Of Tom’s 14 games of his first 20 that were Okay or worse, he lost just six of them. That’s an above .500 8-6 record in games where he played Okay or worse. That is absolutely crazy, and the reason for all of his postseason success so far outside of 2004.
Of course, I knew going in that this was going to be an unfair comparison for Tom. Patrick Mahomes is likely the best playoff player of all time as of 2024. I put it in here to prove the point that these two players should not be compared to each other. The Brady to Mahomes comparisons are constant, but they don’t make any sense. In terms of regular season performance, Patrick has some serious catching up to do, but he’s not even chasing Tom Brady. He’s chasing Peyton Manning, and in the playoffs Patrick has Tom covered already, at least when comparing apples to apples with each player’s first 20 playoff games.
I’m going to insert another comparison to prove another point. This one is with Aaron Rodgers (who has played 21 career playoff games).
Here is Aaron’s running tally (final tally if he doesn’t play any more playoff games):
All-Time Great: 1
Great: 6
Good: 9
Okay: 3
Not Good Enough: 2
The point I want to make is about outcome bias. Aaron Rodgers is a player with a bad playoff reputation, and granted, his playoff performance distribution is skewed towards the middle. It’s not skewed towards the top like Patrick’s, but it’s also not skewed towards the bottom like 2000s Tom Brady’s.
Aaron has lost ten career playoff games. He’s played Okay or worse five times and lost four of them. That leaves six losses for the 16 playoff games he played Good or better. In Tom Brady’s first 20 playoff games, when he played Good or better, he never lost. He never came close to losing (unless you count the 2003 Super Bowl. I don’t).
It’s not to Tom’s credit that he kept winning despite playing badly. All a football player can do is control how well they play. The difference between Tom’s 8-6 record when not playing very well and Aaron’s 1-4 record when not playing very well has nothing to do with either Tom or Aaron, but it has plenty to do with the reputation of these players.
2000s Tom Brady has the reputation of being a winner. Aaron Rodgers has the reputation of being a loser. Neither of these reputations are earned with what they did on the field. There’s a massive amount of outcome bias at play here, and I don’t think that’s fair to the players with less luck than Tom (which is everybody else).
In sum, the truth about Tom Brady’s playoff performance in the 2000s is that it’s uninspiring, at best. There are two seriously impressive performances (2004 AFC Championship and 2007 vs Jacksonville), but there are also stinkers like the whole of 2001, the rest of 2007, and one and done outings in 2009 and 2010.
In terms of EPA/Play, Tom ranks 14th among all starting QBs from 2001-2010 (min. 3 starts) with an uninspiring 0.075. That’s better than consistent playoff chokers Tony Romo, Jake Plummer, Brett Favre, and Donovan McNabb, but nobody else notable.
Keep in mind that the playoffs in this time only contained 12 teams. Tom’s 14th place ranking means that in any particular playoff field in this era, the Patriots likely had one of the worst playoff performing QBs remaining. That’s why when the defence and special teams fell off (and will never get back to 2001-2004 levels) the Patriots immediately quit winning Super Bowls.
As we go into part two starting in 2011, Tom has not had a good playoff run since 2004, and like I said above has not helped the Patriots over the hump in any of the 2005, 2006, 2007 (asterisk Jacksonville), 2009, or 2010 postseasons. If not for the three Super Bowls right on the front, Tom would have a reputation of his own as a big time playoff loser, and quite frankly he would deserve it.
To live up to the reputation that he has in the current (2024) landscape of being perhaps the best playoff player of all time, Tom is going to have to turn it around in a serious way as we go into the 2010s. Fortunately, something is about to happen for him that rips the playoff monkey off his back.
Thanks so much for reading.
What do you think of Tom Brady’s unearned playoff successes and associated undeserved reputation in the 2000s? Let me know by leaving a comment below. I’d love to hear I’m not the only one that can see this.
Please note before anyone yells at me: My comments about Brady will be primary negative but I still think of him as an all-time great who based on career value has a solid GOAT case.
If we say not good enough is one star and all-time great is 5 stars, Tom's first 20 game average is 2.05 stars, while Mahomes's average is 3.38 and Rodgers's average 3.05. In Thinking Basketball (A book I recommend to any sports fan even if you are not into basketball), the author describes winning bias as "A tendency to overrate how well an individual performed because his team won and underate how well an Indvidual performed because his team lost." If this sentence doesn't explain Brady and Rodger's postseason reputation, I don't know what does. (https://footballfilmroom.substack.com/p/aaron-rodgers-has-been-a-great-playoff).
The concept by which you grade playoff games is, in my opinion, an upgrade/clearer version of Adam Steele's GPA style on football perspective (https://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-quarterback-performance-vs-playoff-wins/).
All in all, I was pumped to open my inbox and see this because I love articles that dispel false narratives, and Brady is the false narrative king.
You should do this for Peyton! I seem to remember him having many playoff struggles