2023 NFL Quarterback Tier List

My try at ranking the NFL's QBs in the 2023 season.

Welcome to the obligatory opening post of the offseason, where I once again make my opinions known on which QBs played the best (and worst) in the 2023 season.

Once again, it was a down year for the QB position in 2023. If you recall my tier list from 2022, I said at the top that QB standards were 1.27 times lower than the all-time high in 2019. 2023 dropped them seven percent lower than that, meaning QBs in the 2023 season on the whole were now 1.36 times worse than they were in 2019.

Part of the reason for this were rampant injury issues throughout the league, which causes this list to have 42 qualified QBs on it (180 plays or four games started is the criteria to be included). This is the most in any season since 2005, and caused a lot more touches to be taken up by backup calibre players.

The rating criteria is as follows: It's a player value list that strictly looks backwards, meaning that I'm ranking players in order of who I would've taken last season. This has two main implications. The first is that injuries will hurt, because 600 plays worth of average play is better than 300 plays worth of great play, because there's no need to fill 300 plays with backups then. This approach means that this is not a best QBs in the league list, and it's not a ranking of who I would take for next season. What this is is an ordered list of who the best QBs were in 2023, and it's not anything else.

Now that's understood, let's get into the list.

Tier 7: Not Starting Calibre

42. Trevor Siemian: New York Jets

2022 Ranking: N/A

2023 Stats: -0.301 EPA/Play (41st); -8.8 CPOE (42nd); 3.38 ANY/A (40th) in 182 plays

Barely becoming qualified with only three games started thanks to an incredible 57 touches in the Washington game is Trevor Siemian, who managed to snatch the distinction of being 2023's worst QB from Bailey Zappe late in the fourth quarter of the Week 18 game the two played against each other.

Despite never having an individual performance better than -0.25 EPA/Play and somehow making the Jets' horrendous offence worse once he took it over, Trevor actually managed to win two of his three starts. That's the good news.

The bad news is that Trevor won a game against the league's worst defence (Washington) despite generating just -0.28 EPA/Play on them, because Sam Howell had the worst game of his career on the other side, and he won a game against the Patriots because Bailey Zappe had one of the worst games in history on the other side.

This is all to say that nothing about these wins had anything to do with Trevor Siemian, and if his unimaginable -8.8 CPOE is anything to go by, he won't be in the NFL much longer.

41. Bailey Zappe: New England Patriots

2022 Ranking: N/A

2023 Stats: -0.320 EPA/Play (42nd); -4.4 CPOE (40th); 3.36 ANY/A (41st) in 258 plays

Oh boy. What to say about Bailey Zappe?

The seemingly white-hot desire to play Bailey got Bill Belichick fired, so perhaps we should all be cheering him, but that doesn't tell the whole story.

Unlike Trevor, Bailey was at least able to play okay in solid wins over Pittsburgh and over Denver, but in all of his other starts he just had nothing to give, including the aforementioned horror show against the Jets in Week 18.

Bailey is just 24, so perhaps he'll get another chance to turn it around, but his -4.4 CPOE does nothing to indicate that these bad results were an aberration. Perhaps New England should've just stuck with Mac Jones after all.

40. Daniel Jones: New York Giants

2022 Ranking: 12th

2023 Stats: -0.211 EPA/Play (39th); 0.3 CPOE (20th); 2.69 ANY/A (42nd) in 240 plays

Ouch.

Daniel Jones is the reason I went on the whole spiel at the top about how the poor performance isn't being projected forward, because here we find the 160M Dollar man all the way down here in 40th.

Needless to say, this was the biggest fall of any QB in football from 2022 to 2023. Playing behind the worst offensive line the NFL has seen in years, Daniel Jones just could not cope with all the pressure.

Daniel got sacked on 15% of all drop backs in 2023. Out of his 240 total touches, he got sacked 30 times. He's always been one to take a lot of sacks, and that's something you can live with as an offence, but not when the rate is that high. Remember last year when I said he'd kicked his fumbling problem? That was back too, as he fumbled the ball four times in just six games.

The league leader in not throwing interceptions last season also lost that good habit, as he threw six this year. That's one more than he threw in the entirety of 2022, and he touched the ball 416 more times last year than this one. That's a ghastly increase in turnover rate, and it will end his career as an NFL starter if he allows it to continue.

The good news is, I don't think it will. Even in a season this bad, there is some good news about Daniel's future. First and foremost, look at the difference between the results based measures and his peripherals. 20th in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) translating to 39th in EPA/Play is not sustainable, and would not have continued if he had gotten to play the full season. 0.3 is not as good as the 2.3 CPOE he had last year, but it's still positive, meaning even in the worst year of his career, he was still more accurate than the average NFL passer.

Additionally, Daniel got thrown to the wolves in the starts he did get to make. Of his six starts, four of them were against top ten NFL defences (Dallas, San Francisco, Miami, Las Vegas). The Giants had several games against awful defences coming up (two against Washington, two against Philadelphia) that would've made Daniel's stats look better, but he didn't get to play any of them because of his torn ACL in week six.

2023 did not go well for Daniel, but if he can rehab that knee, don't jump off the train just yet. I still think there's an NFL starter in there.

39. Tommy DeVito: New York Giants

2022 Ranking: N/A

2023 Stats: -0.194 EPA/Play (38th); -2.9 CPOE (T-34th); 4.33 ANY/A (37th) in 255 plays

From the man who missed all the Giants' easy games to the man that got to play all of them. Here's Tommy DeVito.

Let's come out and say it. Tommy's entire season revolves around his extremely impressive performance in the Week 14 win over a Packers team that was on a roll. I've got nothing but respect for it. We saw what the Cowboys could do with this same Packers team on the same roll in the playoff game, which in retrospect makes this performance look even more impressive, but it's still just one game.

Take into account that those stats above include this career-defining performance, and still look so bad, and you can probably guess how well the rest of Tommy's starts went.

He got sacked even more times in his six starts (37 times) than Daniel Jones did in his six, and against much easier opposition than Jones got, he was not able to get significantly better results. Tommy even got crushed by a Philadelphia team that was well into freefall by the time he got there for Week 16.

No matter how impressive it is, one win cannot make you an NFL starter Tommy. You're 39th.

38. Easton Stick: Los Angeles Chargers

2022 Ranking: N/A

2023 Stats: -0.098 EPA/Play (35th); -4.8 CPOE (41st); 5.44 ANY/A (27th) in 224 plays

I see it's not just Justin Herbert that can be carried by that elite Charger offence.

When you have a pretty good offensive line in front of you and a top ten receiver in Keenan Allen, and this is what you do with it, it's not a good reflection on your prospects in the NFL.

Playing against Denver, Kansas City, Las Vegas and Buffalo didn't give him any easy matchups, but he got outplayed by Jarrett Stidham and Aidan O'Connell in those games, and fought to a draw with Blaine Gabbert. That's not great either.

The real nail in the coffin here though is the -4.8 CPOE. Easton attempted the second easiest throws in the NFL last year (behind only Tommy DeVito), and couldn't complete them consistently enough. A CPOE this bad translating to results even this good isn't liable to happen again, so I doubt he ever gets another chance at the NFL level.

37. Zach Wilson: New York Jets

2022 Ranking: 39th

2023 Stats: -0.220 EPA/Play (40th); -3.1 CPOE (37th); 4.29 ANY/A (38th) in 464 plays

The Jets have not had a QB higher than the 'Not Starting Calibre’ tier since Sam Darnold made 'Bad Starters' in 2019. They haven't gone higher than that since 2017 Josh McCown. The Jets have had multiple swings, and in 2023 they again missed them both.

Being second to last in both 2021 and 2022 means this season was actually quite the improvement for Zach Wilson, and I'm not even being facetious. This was the best year of Zach's NFL career so far, without doubt. The issue with this is that when you're as bad as Zach has been, you can improve quite a lot without actually being good.

For the second year in a row, Zach has substantially improved his accuracy (-9.6 CPOE in 2021, -5.6 in 2022, -3.1 now), which is encouraging, but it's still just 37th in the NFL, and the results still are not there to show for it. In fact, the results for this season are the worst Zach has had in his career, despite his individual improvements, largely due to his supporting cast deteriorating around him (32nd ranked offensive line, no top 40 receivers).

I feel bad for Zach. I understand he's been individually awful, and despite being more accurate than he's ever been he's still wildly inaccurate, and still has never seen a sack he didn't like to take, and developed a serious fumbling problem in 2023 that was the main cause of his results declining so precipitously, but seeing year on year improvement makes me smile, and I feel bad that it's entirely possible that he never gets a chance again.

If only rookie contracts were longer, perhaps the Jets could ride this out and see where Zach ends up, but it's fifth year option time very soon, and he's obviously not worthy of that. Perhaps he's going to catch on somewhere and eventually have a breakout in the same way Sam Darnold did, but for now, he's 37th.

36. Jimmy Garoppolo: Las Vegas Raiders

2022 Ranking: 13th

2023 Stats: -0.063 EPA/Play (32nd); -1.9 CPOE (30th); 4.58 ANY/A (33rd) in 206 plays

Oh Jimmy. You've made me eat a bunch of crow on this one.

The first of many incorrect predictions from last year's tier list. One year ago I thought Jimmy Garoppolo was going to be a substantial upgrade from Derek Carr for the Raiders. Considering you haven't seen Carr on this list yet, you know how that turned out, but where did this all go wrong?

First and foremost, I thought that the Raider offence was going to carry Jimmy along in the same way they did for Carr in 2022, which made me less scared of Jimmy's accuracy troubles. They did carry a QB along to a season way better than they deserved. It just wasn't Jimmy. The best ability is availability, and yet again that's the one ability Jimmy doesn't seem to have, as once again he was not able to finish a season, surely a habit his teams are becoming tired of.

After an impressive week one victory on the road in Denver, I was thinking myself a genius, but Jimmy just couldn't find it after that. Another impressive performance against New England was cut short by injury, and that was the end of Jimmy in 2023. He ended with the stats you see above, which are not impressive at all.

The main culprit for this is a nasty turnover problem, which has always dogged Jimmy a little bit, but never as bad as the nine interceptions in six starts this season. I suspect he will regress back to his career norms on this, but he's 32 now. You never know with these things. I am a big Jimmy Garoppolo booster, but this is the least confidence I've ever had in his future. I'm crossing my fingers and hoping he won't end up not starting calibre again in 2024, but I'm not as sure as I once was.

35. Mac Jones: New England Patriots

2022 Ranking: 28th

2023 Stats: -0.133 EPA/Play (36th); -2.9 CPOE (T-34th); 4.5 ANY/A (34th) in 402 plays

What happened to this guy?

Mac Jones' rookie season in 2021 is roughly comparable with CJ Stroud's rookie season this year. If you believe CJ Stroud has real potential, you also believe Mac Jones had real potential, but where has it all gone?

Turnover percentage is up some, but not enough to make a big deal. Sack percentage is roughly the same. The supporting cast is not great (30th ranked offensive line and one top 40 receiver), but it wasn't all that great in 2021 either. I was hoping his 2022 performance was a result of him never quite getting over his ankle injury, but that appears to be false.

Perhaps the theory of being benched for Bailey Zappe harming his confidence is the truth, or perhaps it's something else (three offensive coordinators in three seasons, for instance), but what isn't debatable is that the accuracy he showed in his rookie season is gone. Jones attempted easier passes than ever in 2023, with his expected completion percentage being three points higher, but his true completion percentage (which excludes spikes and throwaways) three points lower.

Accuracy is generally the one thing a QB can keep no matter what (barring injury), so this is alarming. Maybe just maybe if the Patriots don't take a QB in the upcoming draft, Jones' fourth OC in four seasons will be the ticket. If they do take a QB, expect the His Year article imminently, because it won't look good for Mac Jones.

34. DeShaun Watson: Cleveland Browns

2022 Ranking: 35th

2023 Stats: -0.021 EPA/Play (27th); -0.3 CPOE (T-23rd); 5.27 ANY/A (31st) in 223 plays

From 35th last year to 34th this year. This is what 230 million buys you in this day and age.

Unlike last season, DeShaun was actually able to get into the top 32 in the key QB stats this time around, but an intimidating amount of that production was stacked into DeShaun's best game in years, in week three at home against the Titans and their 28th ranked defence. In his five starts, DeShaun was able to generate an EPA/Play significantly above zero just twice (the other time being the Arizona game).

A much better CPOE on much more difficult passes compared to 2022 indicates Watson likely getting a bit of his rhythm back with a full training camp and not having to wait behind a much better QB this time. However, I'd bet he could get a lot more of that rhythm back if he weren't injured for better than half the season and confined to just five real games. He's still not back to throwing yet.

He was able to ride the wave of the Browns' league leading defence to a 4-1 record in his five real games, but they best be extremely careful or DeShaun's anchor of a contract is going to tear that defence apart, if it hasn't already. I still think DeShaun can play a little bit better than this, but I said that last year, and I got 27th, 23rd, 31st out of it. I know that the Cleveland supporting cast was weak, but DeShaun signed up for a weak group of help when he signed that contract.

The Browns better hope it can be better than this, or we may already be looking at a wasted era.

Tier 6: The Rookies, The Replaced, and The Replacements

33. Aidan O'Connell: Las Vegas Raiders

2022 Ranking: N/A

2023 Stats: -0.038 EPA/Play (29th); -3.9 CPOE (39th); 5.37 ANY/A (28th) in 386 plays

This is what happens when you play for Las Vegas folks. Even a man ranked 39th in CPOE can generate respectable results when he's got a top ten offensive line and two top forty receivers.

What else is there to say about Aidan O'Connell? Much like Derek Carr last year (a less good version of course), it's a product of this uber-talented Raiders offence that a man this individually poor (39th in CPOE is a big yikes) can get into the top 30 in the two results-based metrics.

I have nothing against Aidan O'Connell. He did take a team that was pretty far down in the dumps despite their gobs of talent and salvage a 5-5 record with it. Not quite at DeShaun level of riding the wave, but the Raiders are not quite as talented either. Surely if Aidan ever gets another chance at starting in the NFL he'll do better than this. All rookies do, but he didn't exactly go out there and grab the bull by the horns either.

This man was attempting some of the easiest throws in the NFL, which really hurts you if you can't even complete those. I respect you Aidan. You've started more NFL games than I ever have, but either your team is going to draft another QB over the top of you, or you're going to be behind Jimmy again. You best pray for the second option. That may be the only way you ever get another chance.

32. Ryan Tannehill: Tennessee Titans

2022 Ranking: 21st

2023 Stats: 0.006 EPA/Play (24th); 1 CPOE (17th); 4.39 ANY/A (T-35th) in 293 plays

At last, we've found a player with a positive EPA/Play. Needless to say this fails the 'significantly positive' threshold, with 0.006 EPA/Play times 293 plays coming out to 1.75 points above expectation for the whole season. Nevertheless, it's a breath of fresh air.

Once they drafted Will Levis, the Titans were always going to be looking for excuses to replace the now 35 year old Tannehill. Quite honestly, they never found it strictly considering Ryan's play, as (spoiler alert) he and Levis finished just half a point apart in the ranking methodology I used to create this list.

Despite sack and turnover rates way up from his career norms, Ryan was playing quite well before an ankle injury in London in week six gave the Titans the excuse they needed to pull Ryan out of there. Results that bad on a CPOE that good are just what you get when you play for the Tennessee Titans, whose lack of talent on offence has been holding Ryan's results based metrics down for a while now.

I definitely think Ryan deserves another chance to start in the NFL, particularly in a place where his 17th ranked CPOE can be more effectively commuted into results. At 35 years old, the clock is ticking. His chance has to happen soon, and if the rumours going around are true, he may just be replacing the next man on the list.

31. Kenny Pickett: Pittsburgh Steelers

2022 Ranking: 26th

2023 Stats: -0.055 EPA/Play (30th); -2.1 CPOE (31st); 5.29 ANY/A (T-29th) in 392 plays

A young QB regressing in his second season is not what you want to see, but it's exactly what the Pittsburgh Steelers have on their hands with Kenny Pickett.

Kenny attempted shorter and easier passes in 2023 compared to 2022, but was less accurate on them. Generally, the year two step up sees QBs keep their throw difficulty approximately the same, yet get much more accurate on them. That's Justin Herbert. That's Joe Burrow. That's Trevor Lawrence, but this is the opposite of that.

I understand depth of the throws is not entirely the QB's responsibility, but if somebody was telling him he needed his throws to be shorter and easier, there's probably a reason for that.

There is some good news with Kenny. In 2023, he was the best QB in the NFL at avoiding big negative plays (sacks or turnovers), and there is quite a bit of value in being not negative, but when you're on a team with two of the NFL's top ten receivers in George Pickens and Diontae Johnson, you'd prefer the value not to be coming from being not negative.

The fact of the matter is that although neither of the Steelers' other starting QBs played enough to make this list, the offence was better with Kenny off the field than on it, and with rumours swirling that the Steelers are set to make runs at Ryan Tannehill or Russell Wilson, Kenny ought not to feel too comfortable right now.

30. Joe Flacco: Cleveland Browns

2022 Ranking: 38th

2023 Stats: -0.016 EPA/Play (26th); -2.9 CPOE (T-34th); 6.88 ANY/A (8th) in 227 plays

Traditional statistics love Joe Flacco. Advanced ones do not.

Does anybody remember the headlines that existed a few months ago saying that Joe Flacco was playing like the best QB in the NFL? I laughed pretty heartily when I saw those, because I was not convinced. The same Joe Flacco that was a withered up husk on the 2022 Jets came out of retirement to ride the wave all the way into the playoffs with the Cleveland Browns, but not much of it had anything to do with him.

I respect that Joe was out there chucking (attempting the league's third most difficult throws on average), but the fact of the matter is that even with his extremely low expected completion percentage his actual one was 2.9 points below it, making Joe one of the least accurate QBs in the NFL, again.

This is very much a Tommy DeVito situation, in that all the hype around Joe is concentrated on most likely the last great game on his career in Week 16 in Houston. Week 17 against the Jets was also a very good performance, but I believe it's too ignored that against the Rams and Bears he was a big minus, and against the Jaguars he was a small minus.

Joe started only five games this season. In only two of them he was actually a plus. On the whole for the season he was a minus, and looking at his CPOE, had the season given him more time to even out he would've been an even bigger minus. I don't understand where all the hype around Joe came from. Is it because he was a smaller minus than PJ Walker?

If that's the case, why aren't we throwing Sam Darnold a parade?

Joe is 30th.

29. Bryce Young: Carolina Panthers

2022 Ranking: N/A

2023 Stats: -0.178 EPA/Play (37th); -1.4 CPOE (28th); 3.68 ANY/A (39th) in 660 plays

Speaking of Sam Darnold, I bet Panthers fans wish they could've kept him had they known that this was going to be his replacement.

We've reached our first full time starter on the list, and with many part timers left to come, that might give you an indication of just how bad Bryce's rookie year was. Towards the middle and end of the season, I saw Panthers fans praying for this man to get injured so they could play Andy Dalton and at least win a few games.

How damning is it that there was unanimous agreement that even Andy Dalton could do better? Is it more damning that even in the absence of their first round pick, the Panthers committed to tanking with Bryce anyways?

I get that reps are important, but I'm not sure I would've put a QB through a season this bad as the start to his development. I understand it worked for Trevor Lawrence, but it doesn't work very often. If the Panthers really wanted to do this, could they not have splurged on a WR to try to get him some help? They did have one top 40 receiver in a resurgent Adam Thielen, but Jakobi Meyers was a free agent. Couldn't they have overpaid to bring in somebody like that?

Instead, Carolina elected to throw him out there and let him rot, and rot he did. 28th in CPOE translating to the late 30s in the results stats means Bryce is probably a little underrated right now, but not taking 62 sacks might have helped.

In sum, I believe that Bryce is better than everybody thinks he is, and not as far behind CJ Stroud as everybody thinks. He's got every chance to take off in year two, but if the Panthers don't find him some more help, his results may remain constrained.

28. Will Levis: Tennessee Titans

2022 Ranking: N/A

2023 Stats: -0.033 EPA/Play (28th); -0.4 CPOE (25th); 5.66 ANY/A (24th) in 313 plays

From Bryce Young to the anti-Bryce Young, Will Levis was also on a team lacking very much offensive talent, but at least he tried to make up for it.

You may have missed it, but Will Levis was the NFL's biggest gunslinger of the 2023 season, and not by a little bit either. DeShaun Watson threw second most difficult throws in the NFL on average, with a season long expected completion percentage of 64 flat. Will Levis was first in that category, with an expected completion percentage of 60.7.

3.3 points of expected completion percentage is the same as the difference between second place Watson and 21st place Bailey Zappe in the throw difficulty rankings. Will lapped the field. In fact, nobody has consistently attempted such difficult throws in the NFL since Jameis Winston in 2017, and we all know what a gunslinger he was.

Will Levis is no Jameis Winston, at least not yet, but it's interesting to note that these more difficult throws were consistently putting the onus on himself (instead of his receivers) to get the yards necessary. This caused him to not underperform his peripherals in the same way that Ryan Tannehill did, despite both having roughly 300 plays with the exact same Titan offence, meaning perhaps this style of play was the correct move, even for a rookie QB.

I'm not going to claim Will Levis was as good as Ryan Tannehill, despite getting the nod on this list due to Will's nine starts. He's lower in terms of both CPOE and EPA/Play, but Ryan was a top ten NFL QB just two years ago. That's a very high bar to compare a rookie against, so I'm not going to fault him for falling just short of it (recall they're within half a point of each other in my rankings, despite being four spots apart).

What I will claim is that Will Levis is very well suited for the Titans' needs right now, and if he can turn that negative CPOE positive in year two (as we've seen from countless QBs before), the Titans may just have found their man.

27. Josh Dobbs: Arizona Cardinals & Minnesota Vikings

2022 Ranking: N/A

2023 Stats: -0.085 EPA/Play (34th); -1.8 CPOE (29th); 4.60 ANY/A (32nd) in 555 plays

It's very wholesome that finally, in his age 28 season, Josh Dobbs finally got to be an NFL starter. After three solid games in a row against New York, Dallas, and San Francisco, it was possible the Cardinals had something great on their hands.

Unfortunately, the hope was crushed by horror shows against not great defences in weeks five (Cincinnati) and six (LA Rams). The hype was dead, and Josh never really got it back on the rails. A trade deadline move to Minnesota to play behind their elite offensive line seemed to help a little bit, and Josh had another great game in a week ten win over New Orleans, but it just couldn't keep going.

Things eventually got so bad that a Vikings team still in a playoff spot at the time benched him for Nick Mullens, who (much to Josh's dismay I'm sure) played well in his stead.

That Arizona offence was better than you think it was (as I'll talk more about in the next entry on this list), meaning that this was likely the best chance Josh was ever going to get at the NFL level. Regrettably, he just couldn't do much with it.

I sincerely hope Josh gets another chance, but seeing how he played this season, I can't say with confidence he deserves one.

26. Kyler Murray: Arizona Cardinals

2022 Ranking: 27th

2023 Stats: 0.03 EPA/Play (21st); -2.3 CPOE (32nd); 5.79 ANY/A (22nd) in 341 plays

As promised. While Josh Dobbs could have been a product of all the talent on that Arizona offence, but just couldn't get it done, this man was very much a product of all that talent.

For the second year in a row we find Kyler in the high 20s, and for the second year in a row it's not strictly due to injury, as there are multiple other players with play counts in the 300s ranked above him on this list. After coming back for the final eight games of the Cardinals' season fresh off of knee surgery from a torn ACL last December, nothing looked particularly out of the ordinary.

Turnover rate, sack rate, average throw depth, and average throw difficulty were all in tune with Kyler's career norms, so nothing was all that different for him. He just played like a worse version of his former self.

Kyler finished with a 4.2 CPOE in 2021, which back then led me to believe there was a great QB in there somewhere. In 2023, his accuracy was gone. Despite ordinary throw difficulty (quite easy throws have always been the norm for him), his true completion percentage has never been lower, which is scary for the future.

As you can see in the stats above, Kyler got carried to some okay results by that very talented (18th ranked offensive line, 2 top 40 receivers plus one that's 41st) Arizona offence, but if the Cardinals are going to go anywhere they need Kyler to get back to his 2021 form.

It's entirely possible that it was just a temporary downturn due to the knee injury, and he was turning it on as the season progressed, but I'd like you to keep something in mind. Those last two games where Kyler played so great were against the league's 29th (Philadelphia) and 30th (Seattle) ranked defences. That Philadelphia defence got its lunch eaten by Sam Howell. Seattle got cooked by Mason Rudolph. Let's not throw Kyler a parade for exposing these two teams.

I hope this slump is just a momentary downturn due to the knee injury that's ruined each of Kyler's last two seasons, but a -2.3 CPOE is scary, and if he doesn't get it righted next year, his seat as starting QB for the Cardinals becomes white hot.

25. Tyrod Taylor: New York Giants

2022 Ranking: N/A

2023 Stats: 0.01 EPA/Play (23rd); 4.4 CPOE (5th); 6.15 ANY/A (18th) in 244 plays

Wow. Check out that accuracy. We've been speaking a lot about QBs either being carried or carrying their offences due to their talent or lack thereof. Look at those ranks up there and tell me which side you think Tyrod Taylor lands on.

Unlike his two contemporaries playing behind this atrocious New York Giant offensive line, the perpetually underrated Tyrod Taylor managed to maintain his career average sack rate, and throw just three interceptions this season. He's the only Giant that managed a positive EPA/Play, and the only one that ranks top five in accuracy in the NFL.

You may be surprised to learn that this isn't the first time Tyrod has been up this high, as he ranked seventh in CPOE playing for the 2015 Bills, which is why I think Tyrod (along with Jacoby Brissett and one other that I will get to) is one of the more underrated QBs in the NFL right now.

I think had Tyrod not have gotten injured these Giants could've come perilously close to being a playoff team, which may sound ludicrous but hear me out on this:

Regrettably, the razor thin loss against Buffalo will stand, as Tyrod played the whole game, but does anybody believe that Jets debacle would've happened if Tyrod were in that game? That's one more win. The Raider loss also likely stands, as does the one on the road in Dallas. All three wins that happened under DeVito will also happen under Tyrod, which leads this hypothetical scenario to come down to one question:

Do you think the Giants could've won in Philadelphia in week 16 with Tyrod playing the whole game? They got extremely close with Tyrod playing only half the game, and that Eagles team was in complete freefall, so I think my answer to that question has to be a tortured yes, which leaves the Giants controlling their destiny to a playoff spot heading into a week 17 home game against the Rams, which of course they lose on a missed field goal by one point 26-25 to miss the playoffs even in this hypothetical ideal world, but that's how close it could've gotten.

This is what even competent QB play can do for you. I just laid out how it could've taken even these moribund Giants to within one missed field goal of a playoff spot.

All of this is to say why I believe Tyrod Taylor deserves another chance to be an NFL starter. How can you be the fifth most accurate QB in the NFL and not?

I'm not naive enough to believe he'll actually get one, but this is my list, so Tyrod goes 25th, and if he were able to play even a few plays more he would've finished above this man.

24. Desmond Ridder: Atlanta Falcons

2022 Ranking: N/A

2023 Stats: -0.061 EPA/Play (31st); -1.3 CPOE (27th); 5.58 ANY/A (25th) in 482 plays

What is there to say about Desmond Ridder? I don't think anybody expected him to play well, and he really didn't, but he spent most of the season managing to not get injured, which is an ability that almost everybody beneath him on this list did not have, so here he finds himself in 24th, not by default but close.

Desmond was not that bad as a QB. In fact, he had a very good performance in a week five win over CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans that would age very well as the season went along, and he generated positive EPA/Play a fair few other times.

The issue with Desmond is that far too often he was merely not the reason the Falcons lost. He did not cause them to lose. He did not lift them to a win. He was just there far too often this season for Atlanta.

Perhaps there's another chance Desmond gets to be an NFL starter again somewhere down the line. Maybe that chance won't come for an Atlanta offence that in 2023 was nowhere near as talented as everybody thinks it was, but if he comes with a -1.7 CPOE again, he won't be good enough for it to matter.

Tier 5: Below Average Starters and Super Subs

23. Joe Burrow: Cincinnati Bengals

2022 Ranking: 4th

2023 Stats: 0.037 EPA/Play (20th); 1.2 CPOE (15th); 5.55 ANY/A (26th) in 426 plays

Who would've thought that if the Bengals would feature two QBs on this list, Joe Burrow would be listed first?

Without doubt, this was the worst season of Burrow's NFL career by far, and thank goodness he signed the big contract before this happened rather than afterwards.

Name me a stat, and I'll tell you it was the worst Joe has ever done at it. EPA/Play? Never lower than 0.037. CPOE? Joe's had never been below 2.1 in a season before, and this year (on his easiest throws ever) his completion percentage was lower than it had been in either 2022 or 2021, leading to by far the worst accuracy of his career.

It's a testament to how great Joe is that even at his very worst following a preseason calf injury that he was just starting to get over before tearing ligaments in his throwing wrist and not playing again for the year, he was still the NFL's 15th most accurate passer, and only underperformed in the results-based metrics because (much like the rest of his career in Cincinnati) his offensive line was bad and his supporting cast was overrated.

I don't think Joe will have any trouble finding his way back into the top five again once all this with his legs is over with, but he should likely work on lengthening his throws back out. 6.5 aDoT will not cut it in the NFL on a sustained basis. However, if there is any permanence to this reduced accuracy (and therefore results), the Bengals could wind up choking on the contract extension they've just signed Joe to.

There is very slight reason to worry, but not very much. I expect Joe back in (at least) the top ten next season.

22. Justin Fields: Chicago Bears

2022 Ranking: 25th

2023 Stats: -0.009 EPA/Play (25th); 0.8 CPOE (19th); 5.29 ANY/A (T-29th) in 550 plays

Has hell frozen over, or did Justin Fields just finish a season with a positive CPOE?

The thing we were all fearing in 2023 happened. Justin Fields became an above average thrower of the football, denoted by the CPOE above zero. 19th isn't great, but recall last season he was 31st, and his rookie year he ranked 26th, with a value around -2 both seasons. A lot of people wrote Justin Fields off when he did not make the customary year two jump, but (at least in terms of accuracy) he has made that jump now, and has become without doubt a starting calibre QB in the NFL.

The awkward thing about this is that the immense jump in individual ability did not come with a jump in the results. Last year he ranked 31st in CPOE and generated positive EPA/Play. This year he ranks 19th but turns back negative. Despite this decrease in results he's still climbed spots on my list, so you know which part I think is most important, but it's important to note that Chicago's offence still isn't that great (23rd ranked offensive line, one top 40 receiver), so it's still perfectly reasonable for Justin to underperform his peripherals.

The elephant in the room I've been ignoring this whole time is that Justin came out for 2023 still lacking any pocket presence. He has none whatsoever. He's the only QB in the NFL who's been sacked on at least 10% of his drop backs for three consecutive seasons. If Justin ever wants to break the glass ceiling, this must improve. Elsewise, much like Joe Burrow, the sacks will continue to be a drain on his results, causing him to perpetually underperform his now adequate throw accuracy.

I know Justin wants to go out there and make plays, but if he can get the sack rate down below ten percent even down to something like seven percent, which is approximately where Lamar Jackson was able to get his down to, which is still above average and still hurts but is more manageable, I think it's possible Justin Fields may at some point in his career make it into the top ten.

With the Bears holding the first overall pick going into the draft, there's a lot of speculation on whether or not Fields will still be in Chicago come next season. I don't think they should get rid of him personally. I think he's got a lot more improvement left, and there's every possibility the Bears are going to live to regret letting him slip through their fingers.

21. Sam Howell: Washington Commanders

2022 Ranking: N/A

2023 Stats: -0.079 EPA/Play (33rd); -0.5 CPOE (26th); 4.39 ANY/A (T-35th) in 758 plays

Poor Sam Howell.

Thrown to the wolves on a team that was very obviously trying to lose, 2023 was a tale of two halves for Sam Howell. From weeks 1-10, Sam had a more than respectable 3.7 CPOE. This did not come with great results, because Washington had perhaps the worst group of receivers in the entire NFL, but it was so impressive that I had Sam as a fringe top ten guy at points in the year as I was updating this list week by week.

Then week 11 happened. Sam had an extremely impressive touchdown run against the New York Giants, but at the end of it was laying in the end zone in visible pain. He eventually got up, but he got up a different player. From weeks 11-18, Sam had a pitiful -8 CPOE and threw 12 interceptions in just seven games, two of which he played so badly he couldn't even finish.

None of this was helped by the week 16 game against the New York Jets, where Sam had (without exaggeration) one of the worst games in NFL history and mercifully got benched, only for Jacoby Brissett to lead the Commanders to three touchdowns in four touches and give Washington the lead.

Jacoby Brissett is a starting level NFL QB. He ranked 16th on this tier list last year. He was only backing up all season because Washington was trying to lose, but it being shown so comprehensively that the offence was better with Sam off the field was jarring, considering just six weeks before he was on the fringes of my top ten. It couldn't have been good for confidence or morale, both in Sam's teammates or Sam himself.

That folks, is how you fall from top ten to backup duty in just seven weeks.

Did Sam on the whole underperform his peripherals? Yes he did. Is it unfortunate that whatever happened injury wise in that Giants game happened? Yes it is. None of this changes the fact that Washington's tank succeeded. They have the second overall pick, and they will be using it to take a QB. If only Sam just could've lasted the whole season playing like the first ten weeks, Washington would pick defence or receiver here, and he would've been the lynchpin of the rebuild. The way things worked out, I'd like to see Sam get another chance, to see if those first ten weeks are still in there somewhere, but it likely won't be next year, and it likely won't be in Washington.

20. Jake Browning: Cincinnati Bengals

2022 Ranking: N/A

2023 Stats: 0.136 EPA/Play (8th); 3.9 CPOE (T-7th); 6.34 ANY/A (15th) in 304 plays

Speaking of people I'd like to see more of, but likely won't next year, how about Jake Browning?

Jake Browning is the new age Jay Fiedler, campaigning for the 27 year old rookies everywhere, and given these numbers, perhaps more middle aged (in NFL terms) QBs should be given chances. Just for reference, Jake Browning is older than Sam Darnold (a man drafted in 2018). Not by a little bit either.

Forced into action with the injury that ended Joe Burrow's season, Jake Browning took over a mediocre 5-5 Bengals team and made them a better offence (-0.019 EPA/Play under Burrow, 0.024 under Browning), leading them to impressive wins over competent teams against Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Minnesota, and Cleveland, and got really close on the road in Kansas City.

None of this was a fluke either. 7th in CPOE translating to eighth in EPA/Play means it's no fluke in my book. Jake Browning is a good NFL QB. At least he was in 2023, which is why I'd rather 304 plays of 2023 Jake Browning over a full season of a pretty good (at times) Sam Howell or a similar sample size of a very good Tyrod Taylor or crucially, the 426 plays of 2023 Joe Burrow.

If Jake Browning had played the entire season, I think it's likely the Bengals would've made the playoffs this year. Of course nobody would've known that at the time, so I'm not faulting the Bengals, but it's the truth nonetheless. I know at the mention of playoffs, the bloodthirsty in the audience are going to be foaming at the mouth. They're going to want to hear this:

Did Jake struggle in both Steelers games? Yes he did. Is this the reason Cincinnati missed the playoffs? Yes it was.

You've heard it. Are you happy? Yes, it's true that if the Bengals had been able to win either of those Steeler games they would've made the playoffs instead, but it's also true that Jake is a 27 year old rookie, and those were the only two bad games he had all year, and he deserves a chance to start for a full season somewhere to see what he really has.

Much like Sam Darnold last season, who I said many of the same things about, we are not going to get to see Jake as a starter next season barring trade, as he's locked into a contract to be Joe Burrow's backup again for 2024, but beyond then look out. Jake's game was full of rookie mistakes and he was still this good. Imagine what he's going to be able to do with some more experience under his belt.

Jake's name will be swept under the rug for quite a while because there are no plans for him to start any games in 2024, but don't forget it. If he can ever get out from behind Joe Burrow, we'll be seeing him high on this list again. I promise.

19. Gardner Minshew II: Indianapolis Colts

2022 Ranking: N/A

2023 Stats: 0.037 EPA/Play (22nd); -3.3 CPOE (38th); 5.75 ANY/A (23rd) in 578 plays

1.36 times lower than 2019 alright. How emblematic is it of the league's QB struggles that Garner Minshew, the man ranked 38th in CPOE, finished the season ranked 19th?

Normally that accuracy level translating into those results is a definitive indicator of a QB being carried really hard by the talent around him on offence, but the Colts didn't have that much talent. The league's 17th best offensive line and one top 40 receiver are not exactly the San Francisco 49ers.

So what gives then?

Honestly, I'm not sure. These stats almost exactly mirror his rookie season in 2019, completely ignoring the year two jump he took in 2020. A man reverting almost exactly back to rookie form is not promising, but even Gardner's rookie form was enough to get the Colts to within 15 yards of an AFC South championship, much further than Anthony Richardson could've taken them.

I think the bad thing with Gardner is that he stacked all of his good production into just a few games: Week two in Houston, week five at home against the Titans, a very underrated week seven against the voracious Cleveland Brown defence, and week 17 against Las Vegas. Most other games were average or thereabouts for Gardner results-wise, but accuracy wise he had some horror shows like -10 CPOE against New Orleans, -12.5 against Tampa Bay, and -11.3 in the win or go home game against the Texans.

In all, Gardner was very high roll in 2023. He stacked most of his good (and bad) production into just a few games, and was very average the rest of the time. Did he do enough to earn himself another starting job? No, but I think if he gets thrust into action again he won't embarrass himself.

Good run Gardner. I just wish you'd have played like it was still 2020.

Tier 4: Average Starters and Injury Problems

18. Kirk Cousins: Minnesota Vikings

2022 Ranking: 11th

2023 Stats: 0.145 EPA/Play (6th); 4.3 CPOE (6th); 7.18 ANY/A (6th) in 359 plays

Now we're moving into the real players. We're beginning with much more of the 'injury problems' half of this tier, because Kirk Cousins was well on his way to the best season of his NFL career despite a supporting cast on offence that'd regressed around him quite considerably from where it'd been in years past.

Look at those ranks. 6th, 6th, 6th means Kirk was well in the top five before suffering an Achilles injury late in the week eight game over the Packers. Kirk has been a top five guy before (twice actually), but it'd been a while since he broke in for the final time during the 2019 season. It was surely becoming easy for the 35 year old Cousins to begin to wonder if he'd ever reach that level again, but he did it in spades this season. If only he could've finished it off.

Kirk was doing a great job carrying the depleted Vikings into being a quite easy playoff pick despite their 4-4 record at the time of his injury (does anybody really think the LA Rams were better than this Vikings team, for example?), but once he went down everything fell apart for them. Despite some pretty good QB play out of Nick Mullens, nobody could replace Kirk Cousins.

If I replace Kirk's 359 play sample with a full 700 play one, he vaults all the way to fourth on this list, and you can bet the Vikings wouldn't be looking to replace the fourth best QB in the NFL. As we stand right now though, Kirk is a 35 year old free agent coming off a torn Achilles. It could be tough for him to find a landing spot if Minnesota decides to move on, but I still think he should be near the top of the list for any QB needy organization.

A torn Achilles is a tough injury to get over, so wherever Kirk ends up, if he comes out showing clear signs of injury (like Joe Burrow this year), it may be time to jump out of the pool, but this is a man who hasn't had a negative CPOE since 2014. He deserves every chance to prove himself.

17. Justin Herbert: Los Angeles Chargers

2022 Ranking: 10th

2023 Stats: 0.081 EPA/Play (16th); -0.3 CPOE (T-23rd); 6.16 ANY/A (17th) in 558 plays

Moving away from the injury problems section and into the average starter section, what is with all the hype around Justin Herbert? I understand he only got 13 starts this season, but he still played a comparable amount of plays to the QBs ranked 16th, 15th, 13th, and 11th, and ranks behind all of them on sheer performance.

After moving to an uncharacteristically low aDoT, high completion percentage style in 2022, Justin Herbert went back to playing much more like his first two years in 2023, but the results did not follow in kind. Last year he managed to be top ten more or less by default, but this season he found no such luck, falling all the way down to 17th, and how could he not?

-0.3 CPOE is tied for 23rd in that statistic. The tie is with DeShaun Watson, all the way up in 34th. When it comes to QB performance (and in most other contexts), that is not a man you want to be keeping in your company. 0.081 EPA/Play puts Justin between Geno Smith and Trevor Lawrence (both in down seasons) on that leaderboard, and people still want to tell me this man is an elite QB?

Don't get me wrong, Justin had some very good games in 2023, chief among them 0.43 EPA/Play on the road to steal a win from a very game Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings in week three, a game that felt more important at the time than it ended up being in retrospect, but (just like always with this guy) there were also some duds when the Chargers needed him most.

Negative EPA/Play in a loss against Dallas is one thing. Lots of people do that. A total stinker against Kansas City and their defence is acceptable too. These things happen, but generating negative EPA/Play in each of your final three games as your team falls out of playoff position before Easton Stick ever touches the field? That puts a real dent in the 'Justin Herbert is a top five guy' argument.

With all the talk going around about teams getting rid of their QBs, a conversation so pervasive it even began to nibble at the heels of Lamar Jackson last offseason, it's only a matter of time before Charger fans start to wonder about why they can't seem to win any games if their QB is supposedly so great. These are not the New York Jets. These are the Chargers. It hasn't been that long since they actually had great QB play (in the form of Philip Rivers). They won double digit games every year back then. Where is that now?

Just a question.

Justin has been wasting one of the best receiving corps in the NFL for a long time now, and we may have just seen the last great season of Keenan Allen. With the big contract Justin just signed, he's liable not to ever see one as good again in Los Angeles.

If he ever had it, he should've been able to show it over these four years, and it got close (I ranked him fourth in 2021 after all), but he was just never quite able to climb the top of the league hill, and he's spent the last two years falling back down that mountain.

It's very doubtful given the big contract that he will be replaced in Los Angeles, but this has the potential to get ugly if he remains down here in the teens (which I have a feeling he might if he can't get that negative CPOE fixed). If he wants some tips on how to handle it, he ought to ask this next man.

16. Russell Wilson: Denver Broncos

2022 Ranking: 19th

2023 Stats: 0.045 EPA/Play (19th); 4.9 CPOE (3rd); 6.04 ANY/A (19th) in 589 plays

Finally, a prediction I got right.

I predicted on last year's tier list that the NFL's all time CPOE leader could not possibly be as bad again in 2023 as he was in 2022, and that was a prediction I got very right, as Russell came out this year and played much better.

Russell's accuracy that caused such a great scare by departing entirely in 2022 came back for 2023, and although the results did not come along with it (partly due to Russell's persistent sack problem that's been a drain on his results through his entire career, and partly due to Denver's lack of offensive talent), it did enough to assuage the doubts about Russell's future as an NFL starter that popped up as a result of his nightmarish 2022.

It's clear that he can't do the things he used to be able to do, as Russ attempted the shortest and easiest passes of his career on average in 2023, but the last thing that goes is the accuracy, which means the 35 year old Wilson may have a few good years in him yet.

I understand that Russ's play tailed off in the final five games of his season and began looking much more like 2022 again, which is scary, but it was not so bad that it necessitated a benching, and I saw enough in the first 11 weeks of the year to convince me that something great was still in there.

Evidently, Sean Peyton did not see the same things I saw, as the Broncos are committing to take on an unprecedented amount of dead money in order to have the man who played better than Justin Herbert in 2023 not play for them next year. This is a huge mistake in my opinion, and it's got a big chance of tanking the Broncos for a long time.

There's a reason Russell Wilson is ranked above just six (Herbert, Minshew, Howell, Fields, Dobbs, Young) full time starters from 2022. He's not what he once was, but 4.9 CPOE over a 589 play sample is undeniable. Give this man a good supporting cast and he's still got top ten stuff. If the rumours are true that he's going to Pittsburgh, that's exactly what he'll have, and I can't wait to see it.

15. Geno Smith: Seattle Seahawks

2022 Ranking: 6th

2023 Stats: 0.082 EPA/Play (15th); 2.4 CPOE (13th); 6.39 ANY/A (14th) in 590 plays

Dang. Russ and Geno just can't seem to separate from each other, huh? Here we are again discussing the Russell Wilson-Geno Smith divergence. Once again I think the Seahawks have gotten the better end of this deal, but due to Geno taking a big step back in 2023 it now looks closer than it once did.

Last season I said that if Geno got his sack problems under control, he could sneak into the top five and make the Seahawks a real threat. Give all due credit to Geno, because he went from 23rd in avoiding big negative plays (sacks and turnovers) in 2022 all the way up to twelfth in 2023, but just like the two previous players on this list, the results did not come with it.

After a 2022 spent severely underperforming his peripherals due to the weakness of Seattle's offence, Geno got roughly the same results in 2023, despite his CPOE dropping 3.3 points (a precipitous decline). This mostly comes as a result of an admittedly not great first nine weeks of the season, where he generated negative EPA/Play.

In the second half of the season, the results got much better, as Geno was desperately (if you want to see the meaning of desperation in the NFL, go watch Geno trying to lug the Seahawks to a win on the road in Dallas) trying to keep his Seahawks alive in the playoff race. In the end, he fell just short of that goal, but he recovered what could've been an individually miserable season into merely a slightly disappointing one.

I'm still a big believer in Geno Smith. If he can play like he did in the second half of the season for a full season, he'll have no issues getting back into the top ten when I write the 2024 list.

14. Derek Carr: New Orleans Saints

2022 Ranking: 17th

2023 Stats: 0.05 EPA/Play (18th); 3 CPOE (11th); 6.56 ANY/A (11th) in 612 plays

Here we have yet another man that desperately underperforms his peripherals. What an odd season from Derek Carr.

Let's get this out of the way now. The Saints had no talent on offence. Their offensive line finished the season ranked 24th in pass protection, and they had no top 40 receivers. This is how a man with a CPOE higher than many people you've yet to see can barely get above zero EPA/Play, but there's another interesting fact about Derek Carr's 2023 that I haven't heard anybody talking about.

Derek Carr on 1st and 2nd down: 0.185 EPA/Play on a 4.5 CPOE. These are elite numbers. Easily top five calibre

Derek Carr on 3rd down: -0.134 EPA/Play on a completion percentage below expected. Horrible.

One Derek Carr easily ranks in the top five (not in fifth place either), and the other would've been lucky to get out of the 30s. It galls me that these could both be the same player in the same season. It's not unreasonable to suspect that the worst players on third down also be the worst players on first and second. Let me show you the worst six third down QBs in the NFL this season:

Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Aidan O'Connell, Bryce Young, Sam Howell, Derek Carr.

Which of these things is not like the others?

Despite the anomaly of a top five NFL QB becoming Sam Howell once the down switched to third, this was nevertheless a bounce back season for Derek Carr coming off his worst season in ages in 2022. The -3 CPOE from last season was gone in favour of a healthy positive 3 now, and in general he just looked much more like Derek Carr than he did last season.

Largely due to those third down struggles, he did not get back to the top ten (where he hasn't been since 2021), but if they don't repeat themselves (and I see no reason why they should) and perhaps the Saints find him some talent to play with, I suspect New Orleans will be back in the playoffs next year, and they'll have a top ten talent on their hands leading the way.

Tier 3: Good, But Limited QBs

13. Matthew Stafford: Los Angeles Rams

2022 Ranking: 31st

2023 Stats: 0.123 EPA/Play (14th); -2.6 CPOE (33rd); 6.8 ANY/A (9th) in 596 plays

At last, we're getting into the good QBs, and we're starting with a man who I think I've allowed to slip into this tier based on reputation alone. Bryce Young, Russell Wilson, Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Derek Carr and all the other QBs I've talked about who've had their results suppressed by mediocre talent around them must go to bed at night and dream about being in the situation Matthew Stafford is in.

Did you know that Matthew Stafford has had a positive CPOE just four times in his NFL career? Four times in 14 seasons. That is not good, and I think if Matt hadn't been playing with such elite offences for so long we'd think of him as a player a lot differently, but alas. Here we are. He's done it again. Way below average (33rd ranked) accuracy has translated into a very respectable 14th ranking in EPA/Play, and even better than that in the traditional statistics.

I hate to say these things about him, because I like Matthew Stafford, but just imagine the situation the Rams would be in if they still had Jared Goff right now. Notice you haven't seen him yet, and since the Rams traded Goff (with two first round picks) for Stafford you've seen Goff first on these tier lists just once. The Lions have gotten the better end of this deal big time.

What else do you want me to say about Matthew Stafford? He's a McVay guy who I (and everybody else) am forced to overrate because his results are so good. I will admit that from week 11 onwards Matt turned it on big time, so much that the Rams became an easy playoff pick, and should have won their playoff game in Detroit. That doesn't change the fact that he was the 33rd most accurate QB in 2023.

I don't know what to say about him going forward either. Is it possible that the results get even better next year? So good that I have to put him in the top ten again? Yes. Is it also possible that the offence stops carrying him (like last season) and plummets right back into the 30s again? Yes. We'll see what happens.

12. Trevor Lawrence: Jacksonville Jaguars

2022 Ranking: 8th

2023 Stats: 0.071 EPA/Play (17th); 0.9 CPOE (18th); 5.98 ANY/A (20th) in 692 plays

I'm not sure whether Trevor Lawrence was great or terrible in 2023.

It really depends on who you ask. The Jaguars had one of the worst offensive supporting casts (perhaps the worst) in the NFL in 2023, so if you're talking to the guys like Ben Baldwin who like to adjust for the level of help when evaluating QBs, you're going to hear that Trevor Lawrence was a top five guy last year. If you ask people who merely look at the traditional numbers, they'll tell you that Trevor regressed in almost every way in 2023, and shouldn't be above Stafford, Carr, or Smith.

Considering you're reading this list, you're asking me. Considering he's not 8th anymore, you can ascertain my feelings on it.

Trevor Lawrence was not as good in year three as he was in year two. I respect what he tried to do, throwing deeper and more difficult passes this year in order to take more of the load on himself to make up for shortcomings all around him on the Jacksonville offence, but he just couldn't do it well enough to make it worth it. He took more sacks, he turned the ball over more, and he was much less effective as a passer than in 2022.

However, the reduction in his CPOE was not as bad as his reduction everywhere else, meaning there was nothing fundamentally wrong with Trevor. In addition, he gets credit in my evaluation system for being the entire Jaguar offence.

As perhaps the NFL's worst rushing offence in 2023, Trevor was forced into doing a lot more than most other QBs had to. This is evidenced by his 692 touches. Derek Carr started all 17 games and only had 612. Trevor only started 16 and still ended up with the fifth most touches in the league. The obvious pass on almost every down surely had to be a drain on his results, and softens the blow in my opinion. Elsewise, he could've dropped even further.

Trevor needs to get back to where he was in 2022 as far as avoiding turnovers and sacks if he wants to get back into the top ten. Can he? Yes he can. Will he? That may depend on what the Jaguars can do towards getting him some better teammates to play with.

11. CJ Stroud: Houston Texans

2022 Ranking: N/A

2023 Stats: 0.124 EPA/Play (13th); 0.2 CPOE (T-21st); 7.47 ANY/A (3rd) in 594 plays

Who would've thought it'd happen so soon? Trevor Lawrence has already lost his title of best QB in the AFC South.

It's always a shame to see somebody who's never been top ten before be the first man out, but this is especially true in this case. CJ could've been the first rookie to crack my top ten since Justin Herbert in 2020, and just the second since Dak Prescott in 2016. It's incredibly rare for a true rookie to play this well. Generally, it only happens when a rookie gets the lucky break of parachuting into one of the NFL's best offences. That's what Dak did. That's what Herbert's done, and it's also what CJ Stroud did.

I don't want to dampen the hype at all, because just to post a positive CPOE at all as a rookie is hard to do, but we all understand that CJ got carried really hard by that Texan offence right?

This was a Texan offence that was ready to go, with a top half offensive line and two top ten receivers in Nico Collins and Nethaniel Dell, and CJ did enough to guide it into being a top half offence. In all honesty, if this season happened with an incumbent QB at the controls, it would be viewed as a slight disappointment, and it's a shame he couldn't have been blessed with all these weapons in his second or third season instead.

I honestly think CJ has been overrated just a little bit, likely because of how long it's been since a rookie has played so well. He's ranked third in ANY/A because that's a stat that overvalues not turning the ball over (something CJ is admittedly very good at), but due to his higher than average sack rate, he's not as good at avoiding negative plays as you think he is, and he's not close to the top ten in the other two stats.

Tying for 21st in CPOE and translating that into a 13th rank in EPA/Play is pretty rare and likely won't happen again, so CJ needs to take the year two accuracy leap that's customary in top draft pick QBs. If he fails at that, CJ Stroud could be one of the most overrated QBs in the NFL for a while, but I don't think he will. Once he does that, if that Houston offence remains as stout as it was in 2023, there could be a spot in the top five waiting for him at the end of year two.

10. Baker Mayfield: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2022 Ranking: 40th

2023 Stats: 0.131 EPA/Play (11th); 0.2 CPOE (T-21st); 6.47 ANY/A (13th) in 686 plays

We've accomplished another indictment of QB play leaguewide that we're into the top ten and the 'Great Starters' tier has not started yet, but setting that aside, what a comeback for Baker Mayfield.

The real comeback player of the year is by far the biggest climber in 2023, rebounding from the worst season by any non-rookie NFL QB since 2006 all way into his first ever top ten placement.

Baker had played really well before this (this season is not his career high in EPA/Play, CPOE, or ANY/A), but the glut of great QB play in the NFL has kept him out of the league's upper echelons until now. I still don't think he's an upper echelon guy, but since Baker Mayfield's previous career high of 14th in 2020 a lot of great QB play has been lost, and not much of it has been replaced. Of the 13 men above Baker in 2020, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, and Matt Ryan did not play in the 2023 season, Kirk Cousins was out with injury, and Ryan Tannehill, DeShaun Watson, Russell Wilson, and Kyler Murray have all regressed considerably.

That's nine out of 13. The other four were Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Derek Carr. Of all those who stood between Baker and the top of the league, nine have eliminated themselves, two still stand there, meaning Baker has passed only two people (Carr and Herbert) in order to find himself in the top ten, but nevertheless. Here he is.

Much like the previous entry, Baker tied for 21st in accuracy, yet got results much better. Unlike CJ, it's not really due to the quality of his offence, as Tampa was good but nothing exceptional. Rather, Baker decided to save his best play for the most important moments, serving as the foil to Derek Carr above.

Baker on 1st and 2nd down: 0.044 EPA/Play on a -1.5 CPOE. Mid 20s

Baker on third down: 0.220 EPA/Play on a 3.3 CPOE. Elite. Easily top five.

Small sample sizes cause these kinds of anomalies, but I'd much rather be Baker than Carr, which is why Baker's in the top ten and Derek isn't, despite having very similar seasons. It's just better (if you can pick only one) to be great on third than be great on first and second.

I still have my doubts as to whether Baker was the right choice, as there were several free agent QBs out there to be had that I think could've done as good or better (Sam Darnold and Jacoby Brissett both deserved chances after their showings in 2022), but in the end Tampa Bay won a playoff game with it (even if it was the easiest possible matchup), so instead of calling Baker a bad choice (as I did for most of the season) I'll applaud and admit that Sam or Jacoby can get their chances elsewhere.

Do I think Baker can be top ten again? I really wouldn't bet on it, no. With that CPOE, his results are due for some regression, and there are some murderers on the fringes of the top ten looking for their spots back. Do we really think Baker can hold off Cousins, Lawrence, Stroud, Geno, and whatever sensation may pop up next year all at once to hold on to this last spot in the top ten? If he does, I will tip my cap and he will become one of my favourite players. If he doesn't, don't say I didn't warn you.

Tier 2: Great Starters

9. Jared Goff: Detroit Lions

2022 Ranking: 5th

2023 Stats: 0.127 EPA/Play (12th); 1.3 CPOE (14th); 6.99 ANY/A (7th) in 668 plays

Finally, we're into the QBs I would truly want on my team.

Last year, I said that I thought Jared Goff was the most likely to fall out of the top ten this year. Considering Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Geno Smith and Trevor Lawrence were all in the top ten last year but not this one, evidently I was wrong about that prediction, but I did correctly predict that Goff was going to be passed by several people. After all, he's not in the top five anymore.

In terms of individual results (measured by CPOE) this is one of the best seasons of Jared Goff's career. Recall he was negative last year, which is why I thought he was slightly overrated despite his great results. Quite frankly, Detroit's offence was not as good this year as it was in 2022, which makes it hard to keep Jared in the same position he occupied last year, despite his accuracy improvements.

Goff's turnovers and sacks both ticked up in 2023 (despite both being better than average still), which took Jared from being one of the best in the league at avoiding negative plays last season to merely being good at it this year. For a QB who's always been one to rely on shorter, easier, high percentage throws, negative plays tend to hurt him more than most, which is why his results have ticked so low.

Now that all the negative is out of the way, how great is it that Jared Goff has been able to make this career turnaround that he's made? I've always loved this guy and thought he didn't get a fair shake with the Rams. They could've easily won that Super Bowl with Goff at the helm, and then what would we be thinking about him?

Goff had several games this season which I rate very high, and had to try his heart out on more than one occasion to keep the Lions in games their porous defence was trying to throw away. Watch weeks ten and 13 on the road in Los Angeles and New Orleans (both wins) as examples of that.

While the Lions did show their vulnerability to being overpowered and defeated by better teams with better QBs (notice you've already seen both QBs the Lions defeated in the playoffs), and the losses to Baltimore, Green Bay, Dallas, and San Francisco (none of whom you've seen represented on this list yet) were all ugly in their own ways, it's not reasonable to ask a man ranked ninth to climb any of those mountains anyway.

Jared got close to climbing a few of those mountains, and I hate to rank him ninth, but even with how much I love this guy I just couldn't find any way to get him higher.

For all the great things Goff has done in his career, he has not shown a great track record of being consistent. Only once (2020 and 2021) has he ever been able to keep a positive CPOE for two seasons in a row. I think that changes next season. Unlike last season I see no reason Jared Goff has to fall off from here. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to have him right back in this 6-10 range next season. I'll be waiting for you Jared. I'll also be waiting on those epic NFC North battles between he and the next man on the list.

8. Jordan Love: Green Bay Packers

2022 Ranking: N/A

2023 Stats: 0.156 EPA/Play (5th); 1.1 CPOE (16th); 6.67 ANY/A (10th) in 676 plays

The Packers have found their guy yet again.

It's almost sickening how great the Packers are at selecting QBs, and how mediocre they are at drafting every other position, but none of that is on Jordan Love. We have to give him his flowers, because he was better than CJ Stroud, and was (depending on if you count Brock Purdy. I don't) the best first year starter the NFL had to offer in 2023.

Recall folks that Jordan Love was drafted in 2020, which means that neither he nor the Packers had time to waste on waiting for the year two jump that first round QBs generally take. Rookie extension time is now, which necessitated the Aaron Rodgers trade, and meant that this season had enormous pressure going in, on both player and organization.

Perhaps in the first nine games they played like it, as both Jordan and his Packers struggled badly. Individually, Jordan generated 0.061 EPA/Play on a -3.5 CPOE in the first ten weeks of the season, and the Packers slunk to a 3-6 record. These are bad numbers, and as I updated this list live through the season I'm not embarrassed to admit there were times I had Jordan in the mid 20s. If things had continued this way, the Packers would've selected a QB in the upcoming draft and you may not have heard from Jordan Love anymore at the NFL level.

That was never going to happen.

From there, a switch flipped, and Jordan generated 0.266 EPA/Play on a 6.2 CPOE the rest of the way. Both of those figures were second in the NFL in that stretch, only behind Brock Purdy, and the Packers finished the season strong enough to claim the NFC's final playoff spot. All of us in the know understood that the Dallas Cowboys were in deep trouble having to face this Packer team, and it came to pass, with this Packer offence led by Jordan Love blowing one of the NFL's best defences out of the water on their home field in the playoff game.

It may not have ended the way they wanted, but it was more than enough to get Jordan his rookie extension. The Packers will not be taking a QB early in this year's draft, and if he can continue next season playing the way he did for his last ten starts of this one, we've got a new bona fide top five guy on our hands.

(I wrote a whole article on the turnaround of Jordan Love and the Packers in the wake of the Cowboy playoff game. Click here if you'd like to read it.)

7. Patrick Mahomes: Kansas City Chiefs

2022 Ranking: 1st

2023 Stats: 0.134 EPA/Play (10th); 2.7 CPOE (12th); 6.26 ANY/A (16th) in 716 plays

This one may get me in trouble.

It's also yet another prediction I got wrong, as last year I said that I saw no reason Patrick Mahomes wouldn't be occupying a spot in the top five indefinitely, and here he is in seventh place.

There's no other way to say this: The Patrick Mahomes from 2023 is not the same one we've become accustomed to. The man who used to chuck the ball down the field with such reckless abandonment morphed into Game Manager Mahomes in 2023, with his 6.6 yard aDoT (5th shortest) and 68.6 expected completion percentage (11th easiest) meaning he was attempting some of the NFL's shortest, safest, and easiest passes this season.

Among QBs in the top ten, only Jared Goff attempted easier passes on average. Nobody attempted shorter passes, and those are the only two top ten names you'll find in even the bottom half (meaning 21st or worse) of either leaderboard. Generally, the good QBs just don't feel the need to be this safe and easy.

I don't understand why this transition took place. Much was written and said about the Kansas City Chiefs' supporting cast falling off, but it didn't. Their offensive line was still ranked fifth. They still had two top 40 receivers in Rice and Kelce. If Patrick Mahomes and his fans think this is a bad supporting cast, that is the sign of a seriously spoiled fanbase.

I will admit that for a team and fanbase that'd become used to having two top ten receivers all the time in the way the Chiefs had, this can feel like a downgrade, but be realistic. If you're one of the ones using this supporting cast (easily still top ten in the league) as an excuse for Patrick Mahomes not being that great this year, are you admitting that if you put him on the Titans, Jaguars, or any team that actually has a bad offence, that he just wouldn't be that good?

Patrick Mahomes. The ultimate system QB?

I won't go that far, I'm only trolling with that comment, but I've seen people arguing that the poor receivers are the entirety of the reason for Patrick's struggles. I'd love to see these people's altars to Tom Brady at home if they think this to be a poor state of affairs.

Back to reality, I fully understand that Patrick won yet another Super Bowl in 2023, yet he's outside of the 'Super Bowl QBs' tier. How can that be?

In 2023, Patrick Mahomes got worse at everything. Worst results of his career. Not a career low but close in accuracy. Interceptions ticked up. Sacks ticked up. Worst team record of Patrick's career. When before Patrick could have great games against even the best defences, this year (in addition to being held in check by the good ones) he was held to negative EPA/Play by the putrid defences of Detroit (21st ranked defence), Denver (25th), and Philadelphia (28th).

Should I mention that even Drew Lock was able to generate positive EPA/Play against Philadelphia? Should I mention that (exempting their games against Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, and Tommy DeVito) week 11 against Kansas City was the only good game the Philadelphia defence had all season? Perhaps I shouldn't.

The 'Super Bowl QBs' tier is for people that can carry a team to a Super Bowl. This is the first season of Pat's career he hasn't been a part of it. While yes, the Kansas City Chiefs did win the Super Bowl this season, I'll go on the record saying that it was Patrick's team that carried him this time, and very explicitly not the other way around.

Is there anything he can do to get back into it? Of course there is. He needs to stretch his throws back out again, he needs to get the accuracy back to where it was last season, and he needs to get back to being one of the best in the NFL at avoiding negative plays. Can he do all these things? Of course he can. He's Patrick Mahomes. I expect him back in the top five next year, but if for whatever reason (perhaps injury, perhaps something else) Game Manager Mahomes is here to stay, I'm not going to be keeping that seat warm for him for very long.

6. Jalen Hurts: Philadelphia Eagles

2022 Ranking: 3rd

2023 Stats: 0.139 EPA/Play (7th); 3.8 CPOE (9th); 5.96 ANY/A (21st) in 752 plays

Did I mention earlier that ANY/A puts way too much emphasis on not turning the ball over? If not, I'll mention it again right now. If you're dealing with a QB where the turnover problem is the main problem, don't put too much emphasis on that particular statistic.

If you avoid that pitfall, Jalen Hurts' 2023 (while definitely a step backwards), looks a lot less bad. In fact, despite falling out of the top five, I don't have to do that much mental gymnastics to construe this season as a step forward for Jalen.

In 2022, Jalen was the NFL's fifth best at avoiding big negative plays (a linear combination of turnovers and sacks). In 2023, that became 18th. There. I've said it. You don't have to.

Now that that's out of the way, we can talk about how Jalen threw longer and more difficult passes in 2023 than 2022, yet still increased his completion percentage, giving him a very healthy 3.8 CPOE. It's very rare that QBs get more accurate yet also throw more interceptions. Jalen did that this season, but I don't expect it to continue into the future, which means that his decreased sack rate (if it can continue to hold) lays the foundation for one of the league's very best at avoiding negative plays once the interception luck swings back Jalen's way.

It also hasn't been said enough that despite all of that Jalen's results (as measured by EPA/Play) are still seventh best in the NFL this season. In a way, it's compliment that a man can be that good and still have everybody talking about how much of a step back this season was. It hasn't been said enough that while the Eagles fell off big time from week 13 onwards, Jalen's results stayed fairly stable.

Don't overrate the importance of turnovers folks. There's value in being not negative, but it's not that big. Jalen Hurts is still great. He's only getting better, and barring injury I expect to see him around the top of the league for a very long time.

5. Lamar Jackson: Baltimore Ravens

2022 Ranking: 18th

2023 Stats: 0.135 EPA/Play (9th); 3.5 CPOE (10th); 7.34 ANY/A (6th) in 671 plays

How often can a man who nobody regards as the best QB in the NFL win the MVP award? It doesn't happen very often. In fact, since I've been doing these tier lists (all the way back to 1999), only one MVP winning QB has ever been this low (8th place Cam Newton in 2015). I'm not going to dwell on it too much, because it's not Lamar's fault that MVP voters just don't like Josh Allen, but it is notable.

Lamar has finally broken his streak of having the worst season of his career every year since 2019. He's finally gotten back on the uptick, and he's done it by getting back the accuracy that'd been missing for years. It'd gotten so bad that his CPOE was negative in 2022, and I (an admitted Lamer downer) thought that could've been the beginning for the end for him, especially when his services were less coveted than many thought on the free agent market.

Clearly, it was not, and I'm happy for that. Even if it's a football player who I just can't see the greatness in like Lamar, it's no fun to watch anybody's career end.

This is the anti-Mahomes. Name an area, and I'll tell you Lamar dramatically improved at it in 2023. Accuracy way up, sacks up but turnovers down to compensate, a whole season's worth of plays for the first time in a long time. He's still not the runner at the QB position that Josh Allen is, but there's no issue with taking a strong number two. All of that adds up to Lamar's results being much better, and that adds up to just Lamar's second top ten appearance of his career. It feels like there's been more (primarily because of that number one rank in 2019), but due to injury and poor performance he hasn't been able to make it back until now.

There is an elephant in the room here though. A very CJ Stroud shaped elephant. All of you Lamar stans out there know where this is going, and you're not going to like it, but I have to say it.

There's an argument Lamar Jackson had the best supporting cast in the NFL last season. We all know this. Right? It's awful conspicuous that Lamar has the best season he's had in years when Baltimore finally gets their personnel together, giving Lamar a top ten offensive line and four (!) top 40 receivers to work with. That's a supporting cast even Brock Purdy would be envious of.

I will not hear any more talk of Lamar needing weapons, because he's got more than you could imagine now. I'm not saying they're the cause of his success. I want to make clear that the cause of Lamar's success is him getting back his throwing accuracy, but I also want to make clear that Lamar's results are boosted, not drained, by his surroundings. It's likely never going to get better than this.

All of you out there who voted Lamar Jackson MVP, I agree that quality of the supporting cast ought to be ignored when voting for these individual awards, but considering Lamar had better weapons and worse results, how can you have voted for him in front of any of these four?

4. Tua Tagovailoa: Miami Dolphins

2022 Ranking: 7th

2023 Stats: 0.16 EPA/Play (4th); 4.5 CPOE (4th); 7.48 ANY/A (2nd) in 638 plays

I know. I know. The Dolphins never beat good teams. They lost big in the playoffs. Blah blah blah. Trust me. For the sake of having to deal with less backlash about this, I wanted to put Tua lower, but look at the stats up there. He doesn't rank lower than fourth in anything. I've put him as low as I can while still maintaining my credibility here.

Why do I keep hearing that the Dolphins should look to replace this guy? Are you out of your minds? 4.5 CPOE is almost impossible to find anywhere, especially on league average throw depth like Tua has.

It irritates me when people speak about Tua as if he's Game Manager Mahomes. He doesn't throw short passes all the time. His depth is perfectly adequate. Especially considering a team just won a Super Bowl with a QB throwing 6.6 yard passes on average, perhaps we all ought to shut up about throw depth.

People are also wrong who act as if Miami's offence is stacked to the gills. They do have the league's 11th best offensive line, plus Tyreek Hill outside. Jaylen Waddle is also a 1000 yard receiver, but he's not what he once was. The Chiefs have a top five offensive line and two 1000 yard receivers. Nobody is saying Patrick Mahomes in 2023 is reliant on his weapons.

In short, I just don't understand the hate that exists toward Tua Tagovailoa. Is it becoming awkward how silent the Miami offence always seems to go in the big moments? Yes it is, but I don't think we should be blaming the players for that. If I were running the Dolphins, I'd be thinking very seriously about replacing Mike McDaniel if this keeps repeating itself. Accuracy doesn't go away. It's a physical skill, yet for Tua it always seems to ebb and flow

To me, this speaks to a scheming issue. There's a reason Tua is not in the 'Super Bowl QBs' tier. I don't think he can drag a team to the Super Bowl on his own, but I think he deserves this top five placement, and if he finishes next season with a 4.5 CPOE, he'll deserve it then too.

Tier 1: Super Bowl QBs

3. Josh Allen: Buffalo Bills

2022 Ranking: 2nd

2023 Stats: 0.193 EPA/Play (3rd); 5 CPOE (2nd); 6.51 ANY/A (12th) in 742 plays

Welcome to the real top tier, where we once again find Josh Allen.

If you've noticed, we've now seen every member of last year's top five (Goff, Burrow, Hurts, Allen, Mahomes). All have fallen out except for Josh. This is the biggest turnover at the top of the league since 2019 to 2020, where the only man who stayed was Patrick Mahomes. Now that his streak has ended, Josh Allen now has the league's longest top five streak going, sitting at four years in a row.

Once again, what’s there to say about Josh Allen? This season, he went to a style where his throws were slightly shorter and slightly easier, but his throws were still way longer and way more difficult than the league average, which is likely what you want out of your star QB. On the whole he played like Josh Allen. We know what this looks like by now.

Individually, this season was quite the improvement actually. He improved his accuracy immensely with the slightly easier throws, going from a somewhat worrying 0.9 CPOE last season back up to a healthy 5 this year. His turnovers went up again, but much like I said with Jalen Hurts, I don't believe this to be a trend. Improving accuracy in the way Josh has will lead to reducing turnovers if you give it long enough.

Regardless, Josh was actually slightly improved in avoiding negative plays this year, thanks to becoming the league's very best QB at not getting sacked, meaning that the reputation Josh has for big negative drive killing mistakes is getting more and more unearned by the season, even accounting for the increased interception totals.

If you ignore the horror show that was week one in New York, Josh's stats look even better, possibly good enough to push him into second place in this list, but even without that Josh remains an impressive third place, and got my MVP vote this season for helping turn around a Bills team that looked lost at sea midway through the season, and doing it with a group of receivers worse than either of the two men above him on this list.

If Josh is ever going to get the number one spot he's been so close to for so long, all he needs to do is keep the accuracy where it is, keep the sack rate where it is, keep the mobility where it is, and wait for turnover rate to come down, which I think it will naturally if the accuracy stays so high. If he can do all these things, he can actually be a part of the fight for the number one spot next season.

2. Dak Prescott: Dallas Cowboys

2022 Ranking: 15th

2023 Stats: 0.245 EPA/Play (2nd); 3.9 CPOE (T-7th); 7.28 ANY/A (5th) in 719 plays

In the closest race for number one I've had to deal with in years, I ultimately decided that Dak had to be the man that fell short. Even so, this is a prediction I got correct in a big way from last year.

6th, 18th, 13th, 3rd, 24th, 8th, 15th, and now 2nd for Dak Prescott.

Continuing his career trend of bouncing around this tier list like a yo-yo, Dak was so much better this year than in 2022 it's hard to believe they were the same player.

In 2022, Dak had the highest turnover rate in the NFL, and ranked 27th in avoiding negative plays. This year (like what should've happened for both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts), Dak improved his accuracy immensely, and his turnover rate fell to less than half of what it was one year ago. He finished the season ranked fourth in avoiding big negative plays.

Did Dak have some games which cause me to question this ranking? No question, but taking into account that these rankings are relative, he didn't have a terrible game against one of the worst defences in football like Pat Mahomes did. He didn't put up ten points in a blowout loss to the New York Giants like Jalen Hurts did. He didn't have the galling performances against mediocre opposition that Lamar Jackson had (although he won them). He didn't go silent against all real challengers like Tua Tagovailoa did. He never turned the ball over four times in a game like Josh Allen did,

Did he play very badly against San Francisco and against Buffalo? Yes he did, but on the whole, that's pretty much it. His bad performances are not as bad as anybody else's bad performances, and his good ones are better. Look at his performance in week two against the Jet defence that'd just given Josh Allen such fits one week before that. Look at the week 13 game against Seattle where Dak took the best Geno Smith had to offer and still came out on top. Look at the week 14 game where he broke the Philadelphia Eagles and sent their season into total freefall.

Dak was elite this season, and anybody that says he wasn't doesn't know what they're talking about. I wish we would've been able to see him get his second chance at the 49ers in the playoffs, some real narrative rewriting could've been done right there, but unfortunately Dak ran into the buzz saw named Jordan Love in the first round of the playoffs and that was the end of it.

How unlucky was that? That second half Packers team was white hot, and would've beaten any team playing in that NFC first round, and it just happened to be the Dallas Cowboys that got in their way. It's so unfortunate that what may end up going in the record books as the best season of Dak's career had to go out as the climax of Jordan Love's story instead of his own, but that's how real life works sometimes.

Considering Dak's previous yo-yo habits, I don't suspect he'll be in the top five again next season, but I hope he is, and I hope he gets another chance to lead his team to playoff glory. After all he's been through in this league he deserves it.

1. Brock Purdy: San Francisco 49ers

2022 Ranking: 22nd

2023 Stats: 0.338 EPA/Play (1st); 5.4 CPOE (1st); 9.01 ANY/A (1st) in 523 plays

We've finally reached number one. No tier zero this season. As I said above, there was some serious debate with Dak Prescott (and nobody else) over who was going to be the owner of this number one spot, but just look at those numbers up there. How can it be anything other than 1st, 1st, 1st?

For a while now, there's been a class of QB in the NFL called a 'Shanahan/McVay guy' who everybody knows have their results boosted by the environment they're in, but we're all forced to overrate anyway, because the results are so big they're just undeniable. I talked about this above in the Matthew Stafford entry.

I couldn't have been the only one wondering what may happen once once of these two get their hands on a true top tier QB, one that can lead the league in CPOE. Just what kind of explosions would that cause?

Sheesh. We figured that one out didn't we?

Yes, Brock Purdy is a Shanahan guy, but he is no Jimmy Garoppolo. This is what happens when the NFL's best QB gets to play in the Shanahan offence. Notice Brock Purdy played 523 plays and he's still number one. I would have to fill almost 200 more plays with Brock than with Dak, and I'd still rather have Brock on my team.

Were his results boosted some? Sure they were. That's what causes there to be more distance in EPA/Play between Brock Purdy and second placed Dak Prescott than there is between Dak Prescott and fifth place Jordan Love. That's what causes there to be more distance in ANY/A between Brock Purdy and second place Tua Tagovailoa than there is between Tua and Russell Wilson.

However, it is not what causes Brock Purdy to be the league's leader in CPOE. The very most accurate QB in the NFL. Recall last year Jimmy Garoppolo was negative. Matt Stafford this year was way negative. The Shanahan/McVay offences can give a lot of things, but they cannot give a man throw accuracy, but when you have throw accuracy, that's when you outperform everybody out there by such a margin.

Brock lapped the field on a San Francisco offence that lapped the field in 2023. If 'Shanahan/McVay guys' weren't systematically discriminated against in the MVP voting, this would've been unanimous. There is no fluke here either. There's no indication this is going to slow down next year. If Brock leads the league in CPOE again, there's no reason he can't lap the field again at the head of this 49er offence.

You best get used to it folks. There's a new sheriff in town. Hop on the bandwagon while they're still likeable, and before they get to winning Super Bowls, because if Brock can play anything like he did in 2023 going forward, he'll be back there again, not just once either.

Conclusions

Once again, we've rated every NFL QB with at least 180 snaps. What have we learned from doing this exercise?

i) Young Blood

After a period of relatively stale sameness at the QB position, it appears the replacements are finally beginning to step up. The QBs ranked 10th, 8th, and 1st (plus CJ Stroud in 11th) are all making their very first appearances in the top ten. The ones ranked 6th, 5th, and 4th are all making their second. It appears the era of Brady and Brees is finally over, and their replacements are filtering through at last.

ii) O AFC, O AFC, Where Art Thou?

How long have I spent hearing about how the AFC has all the good QBs, they're going to be so dominant? 2023 was the second offseason in a row of this talk, and once again it didn't happen. For the second season in a row, the top twenty was split exactly down the middle, with ten AFC players, and ten NFC players. The NFC actually got the measure of the top ten, six to four.

The era of the AFC being stacked to the gills at the QB position is over. Comparing the two conferences, the AFC's seventh best QB (Russell Wilson) is already gone, whereas the NFC's seventh best (Geno Smith) had a late season resurgence and hope is high. You can do this at every slot, and you'll come to the conclusion that the AFC is no longer the older brother in the QB family. We're on equal footing.

iii) Narratives

More than most years, I feel like the narrative was disconnected from reality in 2023. Brock Purdy did not win MVP despite clearly being the NFL's best QB. Patrick Mahomes had by far the worst season of his career, and everybody is acting like he didn't. Russell Wilson is cut even after making massive individual improvements in 2023. Some people still think Justin Herbert is a top five QB. Nobody cared to notice how great Kirk Cousins and Jake Browning played in their 300 play samples. More people than I'm comfortable with are overrating CJ Stroud, and did you even notice how elite Jordan Love became in the back half of the year?

You may have been aware of none, some, or all of these inconsistencies, but it just feels like a lot of inconsistencies. With the way sports media has evolved these days, narrative is becoming more and more important. I'm one man, I cannot set the narrative singlehandedly, but I hope you take whatever insights you've gotten from this list forward with you in your NFL watching experience.

Thank you so much for reading. Feel free to chat me up in a comment or a DM what your most surprising ranking was (mine was Sam Howell as high as 21. I thought he'd fallen further), or any key takeaways you took from this list that I did not comment on. Beyond that, I recommend making one of these lists yourself, for any position. It's a fun and challenging experience, and you're guaranteed to learn something about the league.