First, 2 questions: 1) Are you basing this opinion completely on analytics/advanced stats? and 2) Did you watch every Chiefs game (in its entirety) last year?
The reasons those are important questions are many but I’ll boil it down. (And I will also give you one point: his defense did carry the team in a lot of their games. Best defense he’s had in his career.) Saying he had two top 40 receivers is a little misleading, though.
If you look purely by the numbers Kelce was still mostly his old self, but nearly a third of his 984 receiving yards (303) were piled up in just two games (Weeks 6 & 7) and he didn’t catch any TDs after Week 11 vs Philly, with only 5 TDs on the season (his average TDs during the Mahomes era is 9.4/season).
Rice started slowly, but got better as the year went on. He didn’t have his first 100+ yard game until Week 12 (11/26) vs the Raiders and before that he only topped 60 yds once- he had 72 vs Denver in Week 6 (10/12). In the 10 games he played before the Raiders game he only averaged 42 yards/game with 4 TDs- not world beating numbers. From Week 12 through the Super Bowl (10 games also), he averaged 78 yards/game with another 4 TDs. By the end of the season and on into the playoffs Patrick and Coach Reid were able to lean on (read trust) him much more.
Now the real reason for the dip in Patrick Mahomes’ numbers: The other receivers. If you watched all the games then you know what he was working with. Guys who couldn’t separate and were rarely open. But more importantly, guys who had a very hard time catching the ball. I’ve been a Chiefs fan since around 1990-91 and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen so many of their receivers struggle so much, at the same time.
Patrick Mahomes in that offense is at his best spreading the ball around to whomever is open. Whatever type of route they run- short to deep. Of course he’ll lean on Kelce (I suspect Kelce is wide open more than any TE in NFL history) and as the season progressed he leaned on Rice, but he’s a great at making the correct read.
When he had the “Legion of Zoom” with Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and DeMarcus Robinson, he had guys who were great at getting open downfield and mostly caught the passes thrown their way. More importantly, he trusted them.
This group of receivers was not that. Really the biggest downfield threats were Justin Watson and Kelce. Rice was better at short/intermediate routes. I remember him catching a lot of crossers and taking them for extra yards. The other guys weren’t nearly as dependable as they needed to be and Patrick was having a hard time making the offense (especially deep) work. Deep routes were mostly abandoned or not thrown because they had become wasted downs, and this impacted the entire offense and, in turn, Mr. Mahomes stats.
It’s a credit to Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes for adapting on the fly to the personnel they actually had as opposed to what they thought they had before the season started. Not only that, he (Mahomes) adapted his play-style to a boring “take what they’ll give you” type of offense that you know was driving him crazy. I saw the frustration on his face all season long, but he kept at it and look where they ended up.
If you think that the Chiefs QB1 isn’t a big reason (granted, not the entire reason) they were hoisting that SB trophy at the end of the year (and will again soon), you are welcome to your opinion.
I respectfully disagree.
(This took forever to write and I’m hungry. I hope it makes sense.)
I looked it up. “The Chiefs finished the 2023 NFL season averaging 2.6 drops per game, good for the most in the NFL,” per sportingnews.com.
It wasn’t just the amount, either. These were high quality drops- dropped TDs, deflections for INTs, and more.
You used the Detroit game as an example. That game featured no Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice’s first professional game, and Kadarius Toney’s numerous drops- including the drop that was deflected, intercepted, and then returned for a TD. These factors that were more than enough for the Lions to win by one measly point over a Chris Jones-less Chiefs.
First and foremost, I will default to your expertise in the specifics of the Kansas City Chiefs. Obviously you've watched more 2023 Chiefs than I have.
Quite frankly, 2023 is the least Chiefs I've watched in years because (no offence) they'd become quite boring with the constant six yard passes on offence and fairly good job of limiting opposing offences, in addition to never really being in the fight for the top of the conference at any point after the PHI game. You can comment on this, but they reminded me quite a bit of the 2015 version, which was also not the most entertaining NFL team I've ever seen.
Whew. That's a lot of points you've made there. Bearing in mind that I don't know as much about the specifics as you do, I'll try my best to respond.
1) Yes, the list is entirely statistical. I can get away with this because I make no claim to be projecting any kind of ranking forward. It's strictly a discussion of how everybody played last year. Trying to gauge talent and circumstance is a much more useful exercise when trying to guess what's coming in the future than discussing what happened in the past.
2) It's true that the offence was extremely top heavy at the skill positions. . As far as supporting casts for QBs seventh or above, SF and BAL are tied for first, both blowing everybody out of the water (which is why it makes no sense that Brock gets punished for it in the public eye and Lamar doesn't, but I'll save that for another say). Miami's is overrated, but still likely safe to put over Kansas City. Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts have a top five receiver in AJ Brown, and Ceedee, which solves a lot of problems.
That leaves us staring at Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. How else could it ever be?
If you take the position (which I do) that Stefon Diggs was not the guy in 2023 (160 targets to get just 1183 yards is a big yikes, and likely not indicative of a particularly good receiver anymore), who did the Bills have? Would you rather Kelce and Rice, or Dalton Kincaid and whoever you think the Bills' best receiver was?
At the top end, this goes to the Chiefs no question in my opinion, and you can argue the Bills having a third receiver worth mentioning (Khalil Shakir), compared to KC having only two, may tip the scales towards Buffalo, but it's an argument. Even among elite QBs, it is not definitive that Patrick had the worst receiver group, which becomes important because JA ate Patrick's lunch in every important metric in 2023.
To make the point clear: KC's receiver group was worse than most QBs had at the top end, but not worse than all. If Buffalo's group was better it was only a little better (contingent on your view of Stefon Diggs, but we saw how the Bills viewed him this offseason, and I happen to agree with them), and JA was a lot more than a little better than Patrick this season. That is why I refuse to attribute the immense decline in his numbers strictly to the receiver group.
3) I'd like to ask you a question, being the Chiefs guy. What happened between 2020 and 2021, because it's clear in the depth of target numbers that the 2021 season is when the transition begins from the high flying Patrick Mahomes we saw in the first few years to the short throw king he'd become in 2023. The shorter throws are anything but a new phenomenon. It's only this season it'd become so glaring it could no longer be ignored. I'm legitimately curious about this, because the data reveals nothing to me about why this would've happened, so I'd love your feedback on it.
4) I never said Patrick wasn't a big reason for the championship. He played good in the playoff run. Not great (except Buffalo), but good enough. What I implied (and meant) is that if it weren't for that reinvigorated defence this year, the Chiefs wouldn't have gotten close, because the offence was no longer good enough to go it alone in the way that it had been doing in the past few years. This is a regular season list, so there's no place for playoff specifics (part of the reason I felt so brazen to praise JA earlier). I left Pat out of the 'Super Bowl QBs' tier because that is for QBs (and by extension, offences) that are good enough to go it alone through a playoff run and carry their team to a Super Bowl. I don't believe (in 2023 specifically) that Patrick and the KC offence belongs there.
5) The drop thing is somewhat misleading. While Patrick did have the most passes dropped in the NFL this year, it was really a three horse race between Patrick (39), Dak Prescott (38), and Matthew Stafford (33, but in 70 fewer pass attempts), that he just happened to win by a nose. In reality, there were three QBs harmed by drops about equally (in number), all way ahead of everybody else.
Now, that's in number. In quality I really cannot tell you, because as of yet there's not really a way to quantify the impact of dropped passes (other than extrapolating based on the number). I could only truly tell you with confidence the quality of the dropped passes if I'd watched every play of every Chiefs, Rams, and Cowboys game all season, and I did not.
6) Detroit was a throw-in to that sentence. The truly damning examples are how badly Patrick played against Denver and against Philadelphia, especially Philadelphia. I was not being facetious when I said that the KC game was the only encouraging performance the Eagles had all season on the defensive side. I know about all the Justin Watson targets, but everybody else mostly showed up and gave what they could give that day, except Patrick. For a QB as great as him, it shouldn't be that way against a bottom five defence.
Thanks so much for the comment by the way. It keeps me sharp and on my game to know that people are watching what I say. Hopefully this has been enough to fill in the details (at least as they exist in my head) about the concerns you've brought forward. Let me know if there's any further questions.
Wow. Your reply was even longer than my reply. I think. I’m currently sick and everything seems crazy long/difficult/hard to see.
So, being sick, I won’t reply to everything (probably). Also, I always do this on my phone (because I’m an idiot, in case you’re wondering) so responses take forever.
In no particular order (I’ll just ramble):
Granted, Josh Allen had a better season (except for the end result), but just looking at passing stats he and Mahomes are basically even.
Patrick Mahomes: 4183 yds 27 TDs 14 INTs
Josh Allen: 4306 yds 29 TDs 18 INTs
Passing-wise, that’s a wash. Rushing was where his season went from decent to amazing (15 rushing TDs!!!). With the Bills rushing attack (Cook and Allen) came an offensive advantage. That’s one of the reasons the Bills were 4th in total offense (KC ended up a surprisingly high 9th).
But was the Bills receiving corps better? Let’s look:
Bills Top 6 Receivers: 3844 yards 25 TDs
Chiefs Top 6 Receivers: 3246 yards 20 TDs
Almost 600 yards and 5 TDs better. That’s a whole #3 WR!
The Chiefs and Bills top two guys were pretty closely matched. It was nearly a dead heat in yards (Chiefs- 1922 yds & Bills- 1929 yds) but the Bills duo had 3 more TDs (15 to 12).
From 3-6 is where the Bills had the most advantage:
Bills 3-6 Receivers YDs/TDs: 1915/10
Chiefs 3-6 Receivers YDs/TDs: 1324/8
And the Chiefs #4 was MVS who, to say the least, had a very bad season (he got redemption in the playoffs at least). So, last year the Chiefs had a statistically inferior receiving corps, but stats don’t tell the whole story.
The dysfunction caused by the Chiefs early attempt at reliance on Toney and MVS, and the total ineffectiveness of Skyy Moore, really stunted the offense. Mahomes didn’t know who he could trust (other than Kelce and, later in the year, Rice) and was playing frustrated.
You mentioned the Denver game and I couldn’t remember the specifics so I looked it up. Mahomes had the flu, so that didn’t help (I know: excuses, excuses). Here’s a quote from the recap:
“The Broncos blew the game open when rookie linebacker Drew Sanders recovered Mecole Hardman's muffed punt at the Chiefs 10-yard line early in the fourth quarter. Two plays later Wilson hit Sutton in the left corner to make it 21-9, making the Broncos the first opponent to top 20 points against K.C. this season.
Mahomes drove the Chiefs to the Denver 27 but Skyy Moore couldn't bring in a perfectly placed toss in the end zone on fourth down with 7:35 left.”
I never even got to mention how many crucial mistakes Hardman made in his partial season with KC last year. (on the plus side, he did catch the SB winning TD- so, there’s that) And you see Skyy Moore dropping a TD on 4th down. Pretty crucial error. Trust me when I say that plays like that were the rule, not the exception.
The point I’m trying to make is this: Stats are great but a lot of crazy stuff happens in games and stats don’t tell the whole story.
You can look at a score (like the Denver game) and look at a guy’s stats and you can say, “Man, that QB and his team sucked. And they were playing the worst team in the NFL!” But it’s a division game (those are often tougher) and the stats don’t tell you about the QB having the flu or a guy dropping a wide open TD or a WR running the wrong route and causing an INT or a LT whiffing a block and allowing a strip sack.
It’s all context. As someone who has watched every Chiefs game for over 20 years (and nearly all for 34 years), I can tell you that football is a crazy game and, like you explained when you wrote about Trent Green, stats don’t tell the whole story.
Ok. Now for what happened between 2020 and 2021. I believe that was primarily caused by Tyreek Hill…
(Wait. Did you say the Dolphins skill guys are overrated? I don’t think any team with Tyreek Hill as WR1 can be called that- he’s kind of irritating (public persona-wise) but he’s unlike any WR in NFL history. Just amazing what that dude can do. Speed kills. Plus, Waddle and those crazy fast RBs and all of them catching passes?)
I digress. Continuing from above, Tyreek was agitating to get more touches, more yards, more everything. The Chiefs wanted to keep him happy so they schemed up more touches for him. Can’t throw it deep every time but he’s wicked fast, so they would dump the ball off and see what he could do with it. Look at his stats from those years:
Tyreek Hill 2020: 87 catches/135 targets/1276 yds
Tyreek Hill 2021: 111 catches/159 targets/1239 yds
He had 24 more catches on 24 more targets (weird stat). He went from averaging 14.7 yards/catch to 11.2 yards/catch. Tyreek left after that season and with him went the Chiefs primary (and often only) deep threat.
They adjusted to the personnel they had from that point on. You can say all you want about him being the short throw or check down king, but he keeps winning. That’s what I love about him- he just wants to win and he doesn’t care how it happens. 500+ yards & 6 TDs? Great! 223 yards, an INT, 32 rush yards, and a rushing TD? Beautiful! 100 yards and 3 FGs for the win? That works, too.
2023 was a down season for him. You think it’s a trend? What about 2022? I mean, he won the NFL MVP, Super Bowl, and Super Bowl MVP in 2022. I think there were some ESPYs in there, too. That was a pretty good statistical season, right?
During the 2023 season he was not nearly as good statistically (for the reasons I discussed above and possibly more) but, as we all watched (or didn’t watch in your case😂) and stressed and doubted, somehow he led an often ineffective and mistake-prone Chiefs offense through a very down season (granted, amply supported by a fantastic defense) and through one of the most difficult playoff runs for any team in recent memory, to win it all (and SB MVP) again.
What’s crazy to me is how people are trying to figure out how he’s regressing or broken or whatever (SOMETHING IS WRONG WITH HIM!!!), after he just won his third SB (out of four attempts) in six years (out of seven) as a starter.
He has spoiled us all. Chiefs Kingdom and everyone else is so used to him being impossible, that when he’s just great (or, God forbid, good), we all freak out and say, “What’s wrong with Patrick?!?”
Oh, wow. It’s past midnight. I think that’s all I’ve got for now. Please excuse any sarcasm in my reply, no offense is intended. I’m just sick. I’m not going to edit it any more than I already have, because I think it mostly makes sense.
Man. I need to take the energy I’m spending on replies and Notes and use it to write a new Chiefs Chronicles! It’s been fun.🤓
I forgot one thing! If reports from Chiefs training camp are to be believed, the offense is making a concerted effort to feature/push the deep ball this year. With the addition of speedsters Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown to the WR corps, the outlook for Patrick Mahomes’ deep passing stats is excellent.
2018 Patrick Mahomes is one of my favourite NFL players of all time. He was so fun to watch. I honestly think I allow some of my bitterness at Patrick not playing that way anymore to jade my opinion on him as a player, not a lot but some. Anything to bring us back closer to 2018 would be very welcome from me.
Stats are great but sometimes context is needed.
Ok. My food is ready. I’ll stop now.🤓😂
I have to respond on the Patrick Mahomes section.
First, 2 questions: 1) Are you basing this opinion completely on analytics/advanced stats? and 2) Did you watch every Chiefs game (in its entirety) last year?
The reasons those are important questions are many but I’ll boil it down. (And I will also give you one point: his defense did carry the team in a lot of their games. Best defense he’s had in his career.) Saying he had two top 40 receivers is a little misleading, though.
If you look purely by the numbers Kelce was still mostly his old self, but nearly a third of his 984 receiving yards (303) were piled up in just two games (Weeks 6 & 7) and he didn’t catch any TDs after Week 11 vs Philly, with only 5 TDs on the season (his average TDs during the Mahomes era is 9.4/season).
Rice started slowly, but got better as the year went on. He didn’t have his first 100+ yard game until Week 12 (11/26) vs the Raiders and before that he only topped 60 yds once- he had 72 vs Denver in Week 6 (10/12). In the 10 games he played before the Raiders game he only averaged 42 yards/game with 4 TDs- not world beating numbers. From Week 12 through the Super Bowl (10 games also), he averaged 78 yards/game with another 4 TDs. By the end of the season and on into the playoffs Patrick and Coach Reid were able to lean on (read trust) him much more.
Now the real reason for the dip in Patrick Mahomes’ numbers: The other receivers. If you watched all the games then you know what he was working with. Guys who couldn’t separate and were rarely open. But more importantly, guys who had a very hard time catching the ball. I’ve been a Chiefs fan since around 1990-91 and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen so many of their receivers struggle so much, at the same time.
Patrick Mahomes in that offense is at his best spreading the ball around to whomever is open. Whatever type of route they run- short to deep. Of course he’ll lean on Kelce (I suspect Kelce is wide open more than any TE in NFL history) and as the season progressed he leaned on Rice, but he’s a great at making the correct read.
When he had the “Legion of Zoom” with Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and DeMarcus Robinson, he had guys who were great at getting open downfield and mostly caught the passes thrown their way. More importantly, he trusted them.
This group of receivers was not that. Really the biggest downfield threats were Justin Watson and Kelce. Rice was better at short/intermediate routes. I remember him catching a lot of crossers and taking them for extra yards. The other guys weren’t nearly as dependable as they needed to be and Patrick was having a hard time making the offense (especially deep) work. Deep routes were mostly abandoned or not thrown because they had become wasted downs, and this impacted the entire offense and, in turn, Mr. Mahomes stats.
It’s a credit to Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes for adapting on the fly to the personnel they actually had as opposed to what they thought they had before the season started. Not only that, he (Mahomes) adapted his play-style to a boring “take what they’ll give you” type of offense that you know was driving him crazy. I saw the frustration on his face all season long, but he kept at it and look where they ended up.
If you think that the Chiefs QB1 isn’t a big reason (granted, not the entire reason) they were hoisting that SB trophy at the end of the year (and will again soon), you are welcome to your opinion.
I respectfully disagree.
(This took forever to write and I’m hungry. I hope it makes sense.)
I looked it up. “The Chiefs finished the 2023 NFL season averaging 2.6 drops per game, good for the most in the NFL,” per sportingnews.com.
It wasn’t just the amount, either. These were high quality drops- dropped TDs, deflections for INTs, and more.
You used the Detroit game as an example. That game featured no Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice’s first professional game, and Kadarius Toney’s numerous drops- including the drop that was deflected, intercepted, and then returned for a TD. These factors that were more than enough for the Lions to win by one measly point over a Chris Jones-less Chiefs.
First and foremost, I will default to your expertise in the specifics of the Kansas City Chiefs. Obviously you've watched more 2023 Chiefs than I have.
Quite frankly, 2023 is the least Chiefs I've watched in years because (no offence) they'd become quite boring with the constant six yard passes on offence and fairly good job of limiting opposing offences, in addition to never really being in the fight for the top of the conference at any point after the PHI game. You can comment on this, but they reminded me quite a bit of the 2015 version, which was also not the most entertaining NFL team I've ever seen.
Whew. That's a lot of points you've made there. Bearing in mind that I don't know as much about the specifics as you do, I'll try my best to respond.
1) Yes, the list is entirely statistical. I can get away with this because I make no claim to be projecting any kind of ranking forward. It's strictly a discussion of how everybody played last year. Trying to gauge talent and circumstance is a much more useful exercise when trying to guess what's coming in the future than discussing what happened in the past.
2) It's true that the offence was extremely top heavy at the skill positions. . As far as supporting casts for QBs seventh or above, SF and BAL are tied for first, both blowing everybody out of the water (which is why it makes no sense that Brock gets punished for it in the public eye and Lamar doesn't, but I'll save that for another say). Miami's is overrated, but still likely safe to put over Kansas City. Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts have a top five receiver in AJ Brown, and Ceedee, which solves a lot of problems.
That leaves us staring at Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. How else could it ever be?
If you take the position (which I do) that Stefon Diggs was not the guy in 2023 (160 targets to get just 1183 yards is a big yikes, and likely not indicative of a particularly good receiver anymore), who did the Bills have? Would you rather Kelce and Rice, or Dalton Kincaid and whoever you think the Bills' best receiver was?
At the top end, this goes to the Chiefs no question in my opinion, and you can argue the Bills having a third receiver worth mentioning (Khalil Shakir), compared to KC having only two, may tip the scales towards Buffalo, but it's an argument. Even among elite QBs, it is not definitive that Patrick had the worst receiver group, which becomes important because JA ate Patrick's lunch in every important metric in 2023.
To make the point clear: KC's receiver group was worse than most QBs had at the top end, but not worse than all. If Buffalo's group was better it was only a little better (contingent on your view of Stefon Diggs, but we saw how the Bills viewed him this offseason, and I happen to agree with them), and JA was a lot more than a little better than Patrick this season. That is why I refuse to attribute the immense decline in his numbers strictly to the receiver group.
3) I'd like to ask you a question, being the Chiefs guy. What happened between 2020 and 2021, because it's clear in the depth of target numbers that the 2021 season is when the transition begins from the high flying Patrick Mahomes we saw in the first few years to the short throw king he'd become in 2023. The shorter throws are anything but a new phenomenon. It's only this season it'd become so glaring it could no longer be ignored. I'm legitimately curious about this, because the data reveals nothing to me about why this would've happened, so I'd love your feedback on it.
4) I never said Patrick wasn't a big reason for the championship. He played good in the playoff run. Not great (except Buffalo), but good enough. What I implied (and meant) is that if it weren't for that reinvigorated defence this year, the Chiefs wouldn't have gotten close, because the offence was no longer good enough to go it alone in the way that it had been doing in the past few years. This is a regular season list, so there's no place for playoff specifics (part of the reason I felt so brazen to praise JA earlier). I left Pat out of the 'Super Bowl QBs' tier because that is for QBs (and by extension, offences) that are good enough to go it alone through a playoff run and carry their team to a Super Bowl. I don't believe (in 2023 specifically) that Patrick and the KC offence belongs there.
5) The drop thing is somewhat misleading. While Patrick did have the most passes dropped in the NFL this year, it was really a three horse race between Patrick (39), Dak Prescott (38), and Matthew Stafford (33, but in 70 fewer pass attempts), that he just happened to win by a nose. In reality, there were three QBs harmed by drops about equally (in number), all way ahead of everybody else.
Now, that's in number. In quality I really cannot tell you, because as of yet there's not really a way to quantify the impact of dropped passes (other than extrapolating based on the number). I could only truly tell you with confidence the quality of the dropped passes if I'd watched every play of every Chiefs, Rams, and Cowboys game all season, and I did not.
6) Detroit was a throw-in to that sentence. The truly damning examples are how badly Patrick played against Denver and against Philadelphia, especially Philadelphia. I was not being facetious when I said that the KC game was the only encouraging performance the Eagles had all season on the defensive side. I know about all the Justin Watson targets, but everybody else mostly showed up and gave what they could give that day, except Patrick. For a QB as great as him, it shouldn't be that way against a bottom five defence.
Thanks so much for the comment by the way. It keeps me sharp and on my game to know that people are watching what I say. Hopefully this has been enough to fill in the details (at least as they exist in my head) about the concerns you've brought forward. Let me know if there's any further questions.
Wow. Your reply was even longer than my reply. I think. I’m currently sick and everything seems crazy long/difficult/hard to see.
So, being sick, I won’t reply to everything (probably). Also, I always do this on my phone (because I’m an idiot, in case you’re wondering) so responses take forever.
In no particular order (I’ll just ramble):
Granted, Josh Allen had a better season (except for the end result), but just looking at passing stats he and Mahomes are basically even.
Patrick Mahomes: 4183 yds 27 TDs 14 INTs
Josh Allen: 4306 yds 29 TDs 18 INTs
Passing-wise, that’s a wash. Rushing was where his season went from decent to amazing (15 rushing TDs!!!). With the Bills rushing attack (Cook and Allen) came an offensive advantage. That’s one of the reasons the Bills were 4th in total offense (KC ended up a surprisingly high 9th).
But was the Bills receiving corps better? Let’s look:
Bills Top 6 Receivers: 3844 yards 25 TDs
Chiefs Top 6 Receivers: 3246 yards 20 TDs
Almost 600 yards and 5 TDs better. That’s a whole #3 WR!
The Chiefs and Bills top two guys were pretty closely matched. It was nearly a dead heat in yards (Chiefs- 1922 yds & Bills- 1929 yds) but the Bills duo had 3 more TDs (15 to 12).
From 3-6 is where the Bills had the most advantage:
Bills 3-6 Receivers YDs/TDs: 1915/10
Chiefs 3-6 Receivers YDs/TDs: 1324/8
And the Chiefs #4 was MVS who, to say the least, had a very bad season (he got redemption in the playoffs at least). So, last year the Chiefs had a statistically inferior receiving corps, but stats don’t tell the whole story.
The dysfunction caused by the Chiefs early attempt at reliance on Toney and MVS, and the total ineffectiveness of Skyy Moore, really stunted the offense. Mahomes didn’t know who he could trust (other than Kelce and, later in the year, Rice) and was playing frustrated.
You mentioned the Denver game and I couldn’t remember the specifics so I looked it up. Mahomes had the flu, so that didn’t help (I know: excuses, excuses). Here’s a quote from the recap:
“The Broncos blew the game open when rookie linebacker Drew Sanders recovered Mecole Hardman's muffed punt at the Chiefs 10-yard line early in the fourth quarter. Two plays later Wilson hit Sutton in the left corner to make it 21-9, making the Broncos the first opponent to top 20 points against K.C. this season.
Mahomes drove the Chiefs to the Denver 27 but Skyy Moore couldn't bring in a perfectly placed toss in the end zone on fourth down with 7:35 left.”
I never even got to mention how many crucial mistakes Hardman made in his partial season with KC last year. (on the plus side, he did catch the SB winning TD- so, there’s that) And you see Skyy Moore dropping a TD on 4th down. Pretty crucial error. Trust me when I say that plays like that were the rule, not the exception.
The point I’m trying to make is this: Stats are great but a lot of crazy stuff happens in games and stats don’t tell the whole story.
You can look at a score (like the Denver game) and look at a guy’s stats and you can say, “Man, that QB and his team sucked. And they were playing the worst team in the NFL!” But it’s a division game (those are often tougher) and the stats don’t tell you about the QB having the flu or a guy dropping a wide open TD or a WR running the wrong route and causing an INT or a LT whiffing a block and allowing a strip sack.
It’s all context. As someone who has watched every Chiefs game for over 20 years (and nearly all for 34 years), I can tell you that football is a crazy game and, like you explained when you wrote about Trent Green, stats don’t tell the whole story.
Ok. Now for what happened between 2020 and 2021. I believe that was primarily caused by Tyreek Hill…
(Wait. Did you say the Dolphins skill guys are overrated? I don’t think any team with Tyreek Hill as WR1 can be called that- he’s kind of irritating (public persona-wise) but he’s unlike any WR in NFL history. Just amazing what that dude can do. Speed kills. Plus, Waddle and those crazy fast RBs and all of them catching passes?)
I digress. Continuing from above, Tyreek was agitating to get more touches, more yards, more everything. The Chiefs wanted to keep him happy so they schemed up more touches for him. Can’t throw it deep every time but he’s wicked fast, so they would dump the ball off and see what he could do with it. Look at his stats from those years:
Tyreek Hill 2020: 87 catches/135 targets/1276 yds
Tyreek Hill 2021: 111 catches/159 targets/1239 yds
He had 24 more catches on 24 more targets (weird stat). He went from averaging 14.7 yards/catch to 11.2 yards/catch. Tyreek left after that season and with him went the Chiefs primary (and often only) deep threat.
They adjusted to the personnel they had from that point on. You can say all you want about him being the short throw or check down king, but he keeps winning. That’s what I love about him- he just wants to win and he doesn’t care how it happens. 500+ yards & 6 TDs? Great! 223 yards, an INT, 32 rush yards, and a rushing TD? Beautiful! 100 yards and 3 FGs for the win? That works, too.
2023 was a down season for him. You think it’s a trend? What about 2022? I mean, he won the NFL MVP, Super Bowl, and Super Bowl MVP in 2022. I think there were some ESPYs in there, too. That was a pretty good statistical season, right?
During the 2023 season he was not nearly as good statistically (for the reasons I discussed above and possibly more) but, as we all watched (or didn’t watch in your case😂) and stressed and doubted, somehow he led an often ineffective and mistake-prone Chiefs offense through a very down season (granted, amply supported by a fantastic defense) and through one of the most difficult playoff runs for any team in recent memory, to win it all (and SB MVP) again.
What’s crazy to me is how people are trying to figure out how he’s regressing or broken or whatever (SOMETHING IS WRONG WITH HIM!!!), after he just won his third SB (out of four attempts) in six years (out of seven) as a starter.
He has spoiled us all. Chiefs Kingdom and everyone else is so used to him being impossible, that when he’s just great (or, God forbid, good), we all freak out and say, “What’s wrong with Patrick?!?”
Oh, wow. It’s past midnight. I think that’s all I’ve got for now. Please excuse any sarcasm in my reply, no offense is intended. I’m just sick. I’m not going to edit it any more than I already have, because I think it mostly makes sense.
Man. I need to take the energy I’m spending on replies and Notes and use it to write a new Chiefs Chronicles! It’s been fun.🤓
I forgot one thing! If reports from Chiefs training camp are to be believed, the offense is making a concerted effort to feature/push the deep ball this year. With the addition of speedsters Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown to the WR corps, the outlook for Patrick Mahomes’ deep passing stats is excellent.
Awesome! I would love to see that.
2018 Patrick Mahomes is one of my favourite NFL players of all time. He was so fun to watch. I honestly think I allow some of my bitterness at Patrick not playing that way anymore to jade my opinion on him as a player, not a lot but some. Anything to bring us back closer to 2018 would be very welcome from me.