Fluke or Contender? 2010 New York Jets

The Jets are back in 2010, but they're back without their all time great 2009 defence. Did their offence improve? Or was this a total fluke?

(Read the companion article on the 2009 New York Jets here, it will give you crucial context needed to understand the 2010 New York Jets' story)

Welcome to New York, where all of a sudden the Jets are winners.

Coming off of a 2009 season where the Jets finished with a 9-7 record, despite their point differential of plus 112, and expected win total of 10.61, but proved their true mettle in the playoffs, beating Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers in playoff games, the expectations were much higher this time around.

Their offence could only improve from where it was last year, and most of the all time great 2009 Jets defence was still around. It seemed that going into the season that the Jets could not be a surprise again in 2010, but as the season wore on, the Jets would prove us wrong. Despite improvement being an expectation instead of a surprise this time around, they could very well be a Cinderella in 2010 too.

As it turns out, nearly everything would be flipped on its head for the Jets. Sometime between the 2009 and 2010 seasons, they lost everything that made the 2009 Jets special, but they picked up just enough back in other places to remain a playoff calibre team. Allow me to explain.

Whereas the 2009 Jets were the ultra rare great defence primarily buoyed by their ability to stop the pass (almost all great defences are built around stopping the run), the 2010 iteration finished a disappointing 16th in pass defence. 16th in pass defence for a team that'd just had the second best pass defence of the play tracking era (behind only the 2002 Buccaneers, who won a Super Bowl on the back of their pass defence) is mightily disappointing, and is the major contributor to the 2010 Jets' defence being nowhere near as good as the 2009 version.

I speak as if they sky fell for the Jets' defence in 2010. It didn't. They still ranked sixth in 2010, despite being only okay versus the pass. This new Jet defence is buoyed by its suddenly elite ability to stop the run, the only defensive stat they did not lead the league in last year (they weren't even in the top five), but which they now rank first in the league in.

Over the offseason, the Jets' defence has completely changed character, and completely changed what they're good at doing. Despite all of this, they still manage to finish the season with -0.069 EPA/Play allowed. This is roughly the same as the 2022 Jets, if you need help conceptualizing the quality of this defence. This ranks sixth in 2010, far from the all time great defence this team had been the year before.

This is what the Jets have to work with in 2010. Their defensive character has completely changed, and in terms of quality, while still very good it's nowhere near as suffocating as the 2009 version of the defence. It is extremely difficult to improve your team despite taking this big of a hit on defence. Knowing this, where did all the improvement come from?

The Jets' defence wasn't the only part of their team that changed character.

The 2009 Jets had been an extremely rare combination of a great rush offence being held back by a very bad passing offence (it's almost always the other way around). In 2010, the Jets' rush attack generates -0.056 EPA/Play. This is good (7th in the NFL), but again nowhere near as good as in 2009, where the Jets generated positive EPA/Play on the ground. This is simply not a good enough rush offence to carry a team on its own like in 2009. The Jets are going to have to break the Cardinal rule.

If you recall from 2009, the Jets' season turned around once they stopped passing so much. In games where Mark Sanchez dropped back 22 times or fewer, the Jets went (including playoffs) 7-1. In games where Sanchez dropped back at least 23 times, the Jets went (including playoffs) 3-7. The key for the 2009 Jets was to keep Sanchez at 22 pass attempts or below.

The 2010 Jets blow that rule out of the water.

In all but one one of Mark's starts in 2010 the cardinal rule is broken. One game features 21 pass attempts, all of the others feature 24 or more. Thankfully for the Jets' 2010 hopes, Mark has improved as a sophomore, and can carry this off. Far from being hopeless if forced to rely on him, in 2010 the Jets have a winning 7-4 record in games featuring 30 or more Sanchez drop backs.

This is all to reiterate that the 2010 Jets and 2009 Jets are fundamentally different in every way. Where the 2009 defence excelled in forcing incompletions, the 2010 one forces third and longs with stout run defence. In 2009, it was nearly an automatic loss to throw as many as 23 passes. This year, they can't afford to not throw that many times.

It only takes one week for this all to crystallize. In week one against Baltimore, the Jets come out trying to win the 2009 way. The game features only 21 Sanchez pass attempts, but the rush offence cannot get anything going. As such, the Jets are constantly watching as the Ravens get into their territory over and over, somehow failing to score almost every time.

In a game where the Ravens ran 81 plays to just 45 for the Jets, the Jets take a 10-9 loss. For a defence that'd allowed the opposing QB to generate positive EPA/Play just seven times in 18 games in 2009, starting by the season allowing Joe Flacco to generate positive value is a harrowing sign. One that'd turn out to be a harbinger of things to come.

It's not 2009 anymore.

I give enormous credit to the Jets' coaching staff for realizing this quickly, and not allowing their season to fall off the rails by continuously going at it with the way that'd worked before. They immediately abandon the 2009 style and allow Sanchez to drop back 37 times against the New England Patriots in week two.

This has all the trappings of a disaster, but it goes great. Sanchez generates 0.31 EPA/Play and outplays Tom Brady in the process. The Jets exit week two with a 28-14 win over their division rivals, and a healthy amount of faith in their new playstyle.

It's fortunate they did too, because the defence continues to make it clear that this isn't 2009 anymore. Allowing the opposing QB to generate positive EPA/Play in four out of the first six games would've been unfathomable then. It's reality now, but so is the fact that Mark Sanchez is living up to the challenge.

Positive value in four out of the first six games isn't going to send anybody to the hall of fame, but let's give Sanchez some credit here. With 2023 hindsight, we know that he's miscast as the leader of an offence that has to cope with a defence that cannot win singlehandedly in the fashion they did last year, but he has gone against Tom Brady, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and a very game 2010 Kyle Orton, and led the Jets to victories in all of those games.

The Jets are 5-1, and despite the defence clearly not being what it was, and the offence clearly not having the talent to keep this up, this is heaven for the Jets' fans. How long had it been since they'd had a start like this? Alright, actually it hadn't been that long (only since 2004), but with everything that'd happened to this franchise in the interim period between 2004 and 2010, it must've felt like decades.

Over the next few weeks, the Jets would take a loss to the (eventual Super Bowl champion) Green Bay Packers, but they would win back to back overtime road victories in Detroit, and Cleveland, despite the defence being of no real help in either game. The Detroit win required a late game tying drive followed by a game winning drive in OT. The Cleveland game saw the defence allow 0.21 EPA/Play to Colt McCoy of all people, really driving it home once and for all that this pass defence is not to be relied upon in the way it once was. Nevertheless, another OT touchdown sees New York leave Cleveland with a 26-20 OT win and a 7-2 record on the year.

That Cleveland game may have been the magnum opus for the 2010 New York Jets. Far from perfect, and the most accurate description of the Jets' new way of winning I've seen so far. Who could have imagined either giving up 0.21 EPA/Play to rookie Colt McCoy, or having Mark Sanchez drop back 51 times and still winning? Both of these things happened at once.

If the Cleveland game isn't the perfect encapsulation of what the 2010 New York Jets were, then their next game against the Houston Texans certainly is. After a rather dull first three quarters that see the Jets pull a 23-7 lead, the defence remembers it's 2010, and all of a sudden can hardly put up a fight against Matt Schaub.

The Texans four fourth quarter drives convert into two field goals and two touchdowns and see just two third downs between them. All the while, the Jets' offence can manage just three first downs to go with two turnovers and score no points. All of this culminates with the Jets somehow being down 27-23, with zero timeouts, with 49 seconds to go, starting from their own 28.

It would be a stretch for Patrick Mahomes to lead this comeback. There's absolutely positively no way Mark Sanchez can score a touchdown with no timeouts in 49 seconds.

Right?

Wrong. In the shadow of their fans leaving early (they didn't believe either), Mark Sanchez leads one of the greatest drives in Jets history. An utterly beautiful 42 yard pass to Braylon Edwards helps the Jets to score a touchdown in just 33 seconds. An awe inspiring 30-27 win is the ultimate testament to the 2010 way.

Just like in 2009, I won't punish the Jets for winning this way. They're winning games, and that's all that matters to me.

After 12 weeks, the Jets stand at 9-2. Despite being much worse on defence, and only marginally better on offence, the Jets have matched their win total from the previous season already. They look all set to make a playoff push, this time as a bona fide contender.

That is, until week 13.

I firmly believe that up until week 13 against the Patriots on the road, these Jets were seen as a real contender. I present as evidence the point spread for this game. It's just four points. Being only four point underdogs on the road in New England is as big of a compliment the bookies can give, especially in this era.

Two weeks before this game, Peyton Manning and the Colts had come into New England. They also came in as four point underdogs. Two weeks after this game, the team that will go on to win the 2010 Super Bowl, the Green Bay Packers, will come into New England. They'll come in as astonishing 14 point road underdogs. Do you see what I'm getting at here?

Prior to week 13 against New England, the Jets were viewed as equals to the Indianapolis Colts, and vastly better than the Green Bay Packers. Afterwards, they might as well have been a nine win wild card team again.

Do you remember what happens in week 13?

The Jets run out and get embarrassed. The Patriots score on all but two of their offensive possessions, and New York allows Tom Brady to have one of the best games of his career. I hate to keep beating this dead horse, but this was on Monday Night Football. If there were any casual fans out there who thought the 2009 Jets' defence was still alive, even they're gone now.

While the main story of this game was the defence and how far it'd fallen, the offence is not to be ignored either. For a season that's mainly been characterized by a sophomore QB getting over his turnover issues from his rookie year, a game where every Jet drive in the second half (with the exception of the end of the game) ends in a turnover is sure to shake the confidence of both him and his fans.

It did shake that confidence too. The 2010 way was all of a sudden under intense scrutiny. The following week, at home against lowly Miami, the Jets come in as just five point favourites, and they underperform even this very low bar.

This game might have perhaps been more embarrassing than the showing against New England. For a team that just two weeks ago had come off engineering three very good offensive performances in a row against Detroit, Cleveland and Houston, six points against a Miami defence that ranks 14th in 2010 (above average, but unexceptional) is an immense disappointment.

The rush game was bad. The pass game was bad. The defence was great, but not great enough. In a game featuring two of the worst offensive performances in NFL history facing off against each other, the Dolphins come out with a 10-6 victory, and the Jets come out with a lot more questions about the 2010 way.

Interestingly, in the next two weeks, these questions are mostly answered. In week 15, on the road against the league's number one defence in Pittsburgh, the Jets' offence has a fine game. They play well enough that it would have been a blowout had they played this well against Miami, but since this is the Steelers, they have to grind their teeth and require a late goal line stand to pick up an impressive 22-17 road win.

The next week, against another great defence in fourth ranked Chicago, the Jets do it again. They generate positive EPA/Play and score 34 points, but come up just short in a 38-34 loss as the defence melts down again, this time to Jay Cutler.

After a meaningless win over the Buffalo Bills, the season is over. The Jets have finished 11-5 and are the AFC's last playoff team for the second year in a row. Recall how in the case of the 2009 Jets their 9-7 record was brutally deceiving on account of their 112 point differential (which is a point differential an eleven win team should have) and 10.61 expected win total.

The 2010 Jets' regular season was also deceiving, but not in the way Jets fans would like. I normally keep myself on the good side of my fellow Jets followers, but I may catch some heat for this. Here goes.

Despite their 11 win record, the 2010 Jets finished with a point differential of plus 63, which is more indicative of a nine or ten win team. The more in depth analysis comparing their EPA/Play to their EPA/Play allowed paints an even bleaker picture. It reveals an expected win total of 8.88. There are teams that miss the playoffs all the time that have the same expected win total.

This is all to say that not just the offence and defence have completely flipped around for the Jets. Whereas in 2009 they were an 11 win team masquerading as a nine win team, the 2010 squad has nine win talent and they milked 11 wins out of it. They did this by being, according to football outsiders, the fourth least consistent team in the NFL in 2010, with 24.8% week to week performance variance. For perspective, that would make these Jets the very least consistent team in the NFL in 2022.

We've seen this first hand. In their first game against New England, Mark Sanchez outplayed Tom Brady and the Jets won fairly easily. In the second, the offence committed 4 turnovers in a 42 point loss. In week 14, New York was losing in ugly fashion at home to lowly Miami. The very next week, New York was winning in impressive fashion on the road in Pittsburgh.

Despite all of that, here we are. It's the playoffs. Somehow, in spite of what happened last year, the Jets have found a way to make themselves the underdogs again. It will be perhaps a bigger surprise if they go on a big run this year than it was last. I don't know how this is possible, but these are the Jets. Things happen to them that don't happen to any other team. While in 2009 that generally meant bad things and bad luck, in 2010, the Jets get lucky in ways nobody ever has before.

This is demonstrated in the wild card game against Indianapolis. Based on regular season performance, these are most likely the two worst teams in the AFC playoffs in 2010, but due to the way the scheduling worked out, they get to play each other in the first round. That's one in the Jets' luck column.

Comparing the Colts to the Jets, you can see that the Colts finished with a point differential of just plus 47 (12th; 6th in the AFC), compared to the Jets' aforementioned 63 (7th; 5th in the AFC). In terms of expected wins, the Colts are sporting 9.82 (8th; 5th in the AFC), compared to our Jets' 8.88 (13th; 7th in the AFC). By all means, this is a fairly even matchup, further proven by the fact that the spread for this game is just one point.

Having taken the Colts' undefeated season, and nearly their Super Bowl, as much bigger underdogs than this in 2009, everybody knew the Jets could win this game. The only questions lie with the 2010 way. Can the Jets score enough to keep up with the Colts?

As it turns out, this 2010 wild card game would be more like a final hurrah of the 2009 Jets. They're back for one last go around, as both teams go the whole first quarter without even coming close to scoring (the furthest anybody got was the 47), but with a 52 yard pass from Peyton Manning to Pierre Garcon at 5:35 of the second quarter, that dam is broken.

Here is an interesting insight. The Jets are down 7-0 in the second quarter of a playoff game. Recall last year when this happened against the Chargers, NFLFastR's Win Probability model saw this 7-0 deficit as almost insurmountable, immediately dropping the Jets' Win Probability (WP) to 16 percent. Of course it didn't forecast the Chargers not scoring for the next 40 minutes as the Jets overtook them and won, but that's neither here nor there. The interesting part is that this time that doesn't happen. When the Jets go down 7-0 in the second quarter, their WP only drops to 31 percent.

That's the benefit of the 2010 way.

Of course, as Mark Sanchez ends the Jets' next possession with an interception we remember that this is the curtain call for the 2009 Jets, and the game goes into the half still with a 7-0 score.

I will once again give credit to this Jets' coaching staff for being excellent at adjusting on the fly, as on the first drive of the second half they come out staunchly in 2009 mode, running the ball eight times and passing just twice en route to a LaDainian Tomlinson touchdown and a 7-7 tie. After allowing a field goal, they grind the Colts down again, with their next drive taking 17 plays (11 run, six pass) and ten minutes to get Tomlinson into the end zone again and take a 14-10 lead.

After the Colts' next drive is another five and a half minute field goal, New York can manage just one first down on their touch before giving the ball back to Peyton, who leads the Colts to another field goal. 16-14 Indianapolis. This is rough territory. The Jets are down two with 45 seconds left. Their WP stands at 29 percent.

Right when they need to, the Jets kick back into 2010 mode. Channelling what they did against the Texans earlier this season, New York is at the Colts' 14 at the 29 second mark. From here it's academic, as Nick Folk kicks the field goal to send the Jets back to the second round for the second year running.

That final drive is truly poetic. It's the signification of the final transition from the 2009 Jets into this new version of the team, and in so doing they were able to defeat their biggest nemesis from 2009. They've jumped the only hurdle they couldn't clear. This had to have felt very good for the Jets players.

Contrary to the way this game is remembered this was not really an upset. People look back with hindsight and they remember the Jets team with 8.88 expected wins, but they don't remember that Indy had only 9.82. It's no upset that the Jets beat this team. It's more luck on their part that they got to play the fifth best AFC team in the first round.

Nevertheless, there will be no one point spread going into the next round as the sixth seed. There will be no luck in terms of opponent selection. If the Jets are going to get to where they want to go, they will need to go on the road as ten point underdogs, and walk out with one of the biggest upsets in NFL history. Just where is it that the Jets are going in the second round?

Why is it always the Patriots?

Indeed. As with most other stories involving the Jets, the 2010 variant is going to run full force into the brick wall known as the New England Patriots. Recall that the two meetings so far between these two teams have been a microcosm of the 2010 way for the Jets. The first saw Mark Sanchez definitively outplay Tom Brady as the Jets coasted to an easy 28-14 win. The second saw the Jets' defence allow Tom to put up one of the best games of his career in losing by in an eyewatering 45-3 affair.

I can see how these Jets ranked as one of the least consistent teams in the league.

It's unknown which Jets team we will get this game, but considering the loss happened just six weeks ago, and the win happened all the way back in week two, most people are betting on the former. Recall how in week 13 the Jets came into New England on the road as just four point underdogs? That's no more. In order to advance to the AFC Championship game for the second year running, New York will have to accomplish it as astonishingly wide ten point underdogs.

That is how far the reputation of this Jets team has tanked in just six weeks. In the eyes of the betting public, they've dropped from a potential contender to a team that needs a ten point head start just to win one game in New England. For reference, this is the same ten point spread that accompanied the Jacksonville Jaguars in their playoff game against the Kansas City Chiefs this last year.

The Jacksonville Jaguars.

Nobody is giving the Jets a prayer. Of course, why should they? Recall the Jets' marks in the key peripheral stats. 63 in point differential (7th; 5th in the AFC), 8.88 expected wins (13th; 7th in the AFC). Comparing these to the Patriots' marks of 205 (1st; 1st), which no team had matched since their undefeated 2007 season, and 12.86 expected wins (1st; 1st) paints this game as a total mismatch. A difference of four in terms of expected wins is much larger than a difference of four in terms of actual wins. If not for good luck going the Jets' way, these teams could've been five or six wins apart, instead of the mere three win difference that actually exists. Make no mistake, these Patriots are much more than three wins better than our 2010 Jets.

But we have beaten them before, and Mark Sanchez has played very well against this same defence before, which is enough to give Jets fans something to clutch onto in hopes that a miracle will happen this Sunday afternoon, but these are still the Jets. Good things don't happen to the Jets, especially when they're playing the Patriots. This mindset of perpetually low expectations has served Jets' fans well in the past, but if they want to compete with the big boys, it will serve no purpose.

Today, the Jets show their fans that miracles do happen.

Not in the beginning though. The first two drives are all Patriots. On the Jets' first touch, they get into New England territory but no further, and have to punt from the 43. New England responds by easily driving the ball inside the Jet 40 themselves. Just when it's looking like the Patriots are going to score an easy touchdown and end this game already, the first miracle happens.

Tom Brady, who hadn't thrown an interception in his prior 339 attempts (that's 12 games folks), makes one of the worst throws I've ever seen him make. He throws the ball clear over his back's head on a screen pass, and the ball comes down into the hands of David Harris. David Harris is a MIKE Linebacker who hasn't had an interception all season, and as such this is not returned for a touchdown as it should've been. Even when things go right they go wrong for the Jets, but this still puts them in a great position at the Patriot 12.

The drive is three plays that go nowhere and a missed field goal try, and the miracle has been completely wasted. When you're playing the Patriots, you really don't want to go wasting your chances, but New York has just wasted a golden opportunity to pounce. New England gets the ball back and again easily gets inside the Jets' ten, and here is where the second miracle happens.

On second down and five to go from the Jet seven, Tom Brady finds an open Alge Crumpler in the end zone. This is where I became convinced watching this game back that the football Gods (for once) are firmly on the side of the New York Jets, because Alge drops one of the easiest touchdown catches of his career. After a third down sack, the Patriots are thankfully held to a field goal as the first quarter comes to a close with the score showing 3-0.

Interestingly, this first quarter has actually improved the Jets' WP (it was 16 percent to begin the game and 18 now) by only allowing the Patriots to take a three point lead on them, but it's taken two absolute miracles to keep it that close. Still, as the Jets punt again to begin the second quarter, they had to have been thinking of that golden chance at seven they would've had if only somebody other than David Harris had been lurking the screen pass.

After a New England three and out, the Jets' next touch starts with a false start, because of course it does. No matter, another absolutely beautiful ball from Sanchez to Braylon Edwards (very similar to the one against Houston) sets the Jets up with a first and goal, and this time they convert. A Sanchez pass to Tomlinson gives New York the 7-3 lead at 10:30 of the second quarter.

After another New England three and out including Tom Brady missing an open Rob Gronkowski on third and three (a lucky play for sure, but not a miracle), the Jets' next drive is scuttled by a miscommunication between Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards that results in Braylon breaking up a Sanchez pass to Holmes (tough to explain with words. Watch this one back if you can). This leaves Tom Brady with the ball in the two minute drill before the end of the half. Normally the Jets would be dead in this circumstance. Tom has killed much better defences than this in the two minute situation.

This time he doesn't. He's able to generate one first down, but that's all. The Patriots have to send the punt team out, and here is another godsend for the New York Jets. New England goes fake punt on fourth down and four from their own 38. The Jets have this covered fairly well, but if you look back on this play there is a lane. It's just not hard to get four yards on a run play in the NFL no matter how well you've got it covered on defence.

None of this matters because Patrick Chung puts the direct snap on the ground. He gets back to the line of scrimmage but no further, and the Jets get the ball with one minute left on the New England 37. 27 seconds later they've scored to go up 14-3 into the half. I'm reticent to call this a miracle, since there's no guarantee Chung gets his required four yards here, but what are the odds that he puts the snap on the ground in this crucial situation? To me, this is miracle number three. Your count can diverge from mine here if you want it to.

All of a sudden the 2010 Jets, who just 20 minutes ago needed a miracle to win this, are going into the half with their estimated WP sitting at 59 percent. Mark Sanchez is playing very well again, and this is starting to look suspiciously like week two. We remember what happened then (the Jets coasted away for an easy win). If they can do that here it would be legendary in the annals of NFL upsets.

Both teams spend the third quarter not being able to get much going on offence. There is one Jet drive that gets to the Patriot 38 before punting, but beyond that nothing from either side. Still up eleven points with the time bleeding away, New York's WP is steadily climbing ever higher, to 79 percent at its highest. No more miracles are necessary. At this point all they need is to keep doing what they're doing and they will go to the AFC Championship.

Of course, as soon as somebody thinks they're getting one up on the Patriots. They kick back into gear. At 4:04 of the third the Patriots finally get a drive going with a Brady to Gronkowski 37 yarder. There are no miracles this time, as Brady throws a touchdown pass to Crumpler (this one isn't dropped), and with a two point conversion the score is now 14-11 going into the fourth quarter.

The Jets WP is now just 55 percent as they start their next drive. Going into the fourth quarter up only three against the Patriots is treacherous. We know that. This next offensive drive is make or break for the 2010 season. Here is where Mark Sanchez proves his true mettle.

It takes just five plays (four of them passes) to get the Jets back into the end zone and back into a ten point lead. Again, I have to give this Jets' coaching staff so much credit for realizing what was happening and going with the pass. If you've read any of my prior pieces on prior Jets administrations, you've seen my opinions on how they seriously harmed Chad Pennington's career by insisting that they stick with the rush game, no matter how much Chad was killing the opponent, which consistently put him into third down and long situations.

This staff did not do that. They saw that Mark Sanchez has been killing the Patriots all day, and on the most important drive of the season, they put the ball in his hands. I give them an immense amount of credit for doing this, especially having just watched a whole playoff game against Indianapolis where Mark really couldn't do anything at all. Excellent job.

Anyways, back to New England. It's 21-11 with 12:55 left to go, and it's time to take it back to 2009. The Jet defence does an excellent job of forcing almost every series to a third down, and ensuring that this drive eats up a lot of time. By the time the clock reads 5:19, the Patriots still have the ball, but they're only on the 34. The Jet defence has done an outstanding job of forcing the Patriots to run the clock out on themselves.

At the beginning of this drive, the Jets' WP was 75 percent. Now it's 87. That's how important time is in the fourth quarter, and at this time, 5:19 of the fourth quarter, one more miracle comes for the New York Jets.

It's fourth and 13 from the 34 yard line and Darrelle Revis is out of the game due to injury. He has been doing an exceptional job clamping up the Patriots' top receiver, Deion Branch, all day long, but on the most important play of the year there is no Revis. As a result, Brady never even moves his eyes. Branch runs a typical hitch right to the first down marker, and Brady hits him.

Dropped again.

Oh my goodness. These are things that almost always happen to teams playing against the Patriots, and almost never to them, but as I've said many many times by now, the Jets are ridiculous. Things happen to them that don't happen to any other team. They're the only team who I've ever seen get this lucky against the Patriots, and we've all watched a lot of Patriots playoff games.

The Jets don't try to do anything on offence. They simply run two minutes off and kick the ball back. Following a near punt return disaster that was saved by punter Steve Weatherford (not a miracle, but close), the Patriots are able to get a field goal to make the score 21-14 at the two minute warning, but after the Jets recover the onside kick attempt it's all over from there. Both teams score garbage time touchdowns, neither of which matter at all, as the Jets pull off the extreme upset 28-21.

This is precisely the game that the 2010 way was designed to win. Mark Sanchez has just outplayed Tom Brady and beaten him fairly easily, for the second time in the same season. There's no way to get around saying that. This game was reasonably close, but never in doubt for almost the whole fourth quarter. All of this despite everything I explained above about how much better these Patriots were in every single way than our 2010 Jets team.

This is one of the biggest upsets of all time. Since the NFL merger, excluding Super Bowls (which always seem to have really wide spreads for reasons I can't understand), there have been just eight instances to this point of NFL teams overcoming a spread this large to win an NFL playoff game. These include legendary upsets like the Jaguars over the Broncos in 1996, Falcons over Vikings in 1998, or the lowly eight win Minnesota Vikings ending the 49ers' threepeat bid in 1987.

This is the company that this upset resides in. If it hadn't been pre-empted by an even bigger upset in just the prior week (when the miserable 7-9 Seahawks took out the defending Super Bowl champions), this would have been the biggest upset since the 2007 Super Bowl, and would remain the biggest upset until the Titans beat the Ravens in 2019. Instead that honour remained with the Seahawks for all those years (and was honestly the jumping off point for the 2010s empire they'd go on to create).

In some ways this is unfair to our 2010 Jets. When you speak of biggest upsets of all time this game is perpetually doomed to not even be remembered as the biggest upset this month, despite being incredible in its own right. Therefore, the significance of this game, outside of Jets fandom, is fated to be perpetually downplayed in the shadow of the Seahawks. Nevertheless, we're still in 2010. The 2010 way has won, and now we're onto Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship game.

All of a sudden the Jets are in a very good position. It's hardly even been a month since the Jets took that hard fought week 15 win, also in Pittsburgh. It's the type of game that leaves both teams with confidence if they need to see each other again. New York won with a last second goal line stand, but the Steelers knew that they were within a goal line stand of winning. It was anybody's game.

As such, the Jets come into this game as scant four point underdogs. The second game against the Patriots tarnished their reputation in a significant way, but all it took was another easy win to bring it back. We've arrived at the AFC Championship with the Jets basking in their new found contenders' status once again. They've beaten two of the AFC's 'big four' quarterbacks (Tom Brady and Peyton Manning), and stolen a playoff spot from a third (Philip Rivers). To get to the Super Bowl, they're going to have to go through the fourth and final member of this legendary four man club. It's Mark Sanchez and his Jets against Ben Roethlisberger and his Steelers, and it's for all the marbles.

If the prior week showed all the benefits of the 2010 way, the first drive of this game showed all the downsides. A defence that'd held offences to third and long all year continued to do so, forcing Pittsburgh to third and seven, third and five, and third and twelve all on this first drive, but were unable to get off the field on any of them due to being unable to stop the Steelers' pass attack (recall the Jets ranked just 16th in pass defence this season). In the end, Pittsburgh takes a 7-0 lead after using up nine minutes of precious time.

Keep in mind just how long everything takes through the course of this game. I have a feeling it'll come up later.

After the Jets' first drive fizzles out in Pittsburgh territory, despite a clutch third and ten conversion from Sanchez to Cotchery to keep the drive going earlier, Pittsburgh is immediately in New York territory again. Thankfully for them, nobody is kicking field goals in Pittsburgh in January from the 32, then or now, and so on fourth and one the Steelers have to go for it. For the second week in a row, the Jets get a miracle on a screen pass.

The pass bounces off of Rashard Mendenhall's hands, and instead of an easy Steelers first down, it's Jets' ball. They can't do anything with it, but this drop has saved the Jets at least three points.

A negative yard run and a false start penalty sully the Jets' next drive before it even starts, and upon punting, it takes Pittsburgh just two plays to get back over the 50 again. Two plays further and it's first and goal. Thankfully for the Jets, the Steelers decide to pass just once in these three plays, and the Jets hold them to three. 10-0.

Even a kickoff out of bounds can't help the Jets' offence, as they go three and out again, and the Steelers are right back down their throats again, scoring easily. I do mean easily. The Steelers called five passes on this drive. They went as follows: incompletion, 24 yard completion, 19 yard completion, 14 yard completion, scramble for a touchdown.

This was just too easy. It's like the fourth quarter against Houston all over again. The Jets have nothing to combat the Steelers with on either side of the ball. As such, their WP has dropped from a hopeful 36 percent chance of winning to start the game to a depressing six percent now, at the two minute warning.

This is helped none when the next drive ends in a strip sack to make the score 24-0 in favour of Pittsburgh and drop the Jets' WP to a heartbreaking two percent. New York is able to get a field goal on the board before the half ends, but still go into the locker room with just a three percent chance to go to the Super Bowl.

In all, the Jets were able to run just 26 offensive plays in the first half. The Steelers got 16 on just their first touch. To say they got TOPed to death is a big understatement. I'll give the Jets credit for sticking with the 2010 way. Of all of those 26 plays in the first half, they were able to run just five times, of which not even one generated positive EPA. In short, Mark Sanchez was getting no help at all, and a one dimensional Mark Sanchez is nobody's idea of a Super Bowl calibre offence.

24-3 is not a death sentence, but it's close. In order to make the Super Bowl, the Jets are going to have to combine a 2009 defence with a 2010 offence. We've seen in spurts that the all time great 2009 defence is still in there somewhere. They can bring it out in short bursts, but this is not a burst. To stand any chance at going to the Super Bowl, they're going to have to shut down a big four QB for an entire half. All of this while hoping the 2009 quality offence can come out for the next half back in its 2010 form.

This is a lot to ask, but I'll repeat. The Jets are ridiculous. Things happen to them that don't happen to any other team.

Just you watch.

The first series of the second half is trademark Jets. It starts with a 23 yard run from Shonn Greene (their first positive EPA run play of the game), and ends with a wonderful 45 yard touchdown pass from Sanchez to a wide open Santonio Holmes to make the score 24-10. This is great and all, but as the WP indicates (it hasn't moved), this means nothing if the Jets can't come out and stop Pittsburgh and hold them to no points. Even field goals won't do. The Steelers need to score absolutely no points in order for New York to make up this deficit.

On Pittsburgh's drive, the Jets finally get off the field on a third down. They force an incomplete pass on third and two to hold the Steelers to three plays for the first time all day, only for a crucial roughing the kicker penalty to keep the drive alive. A goal line interception means that this error costs the Jets no points, but it costs them three crucial minutes of game clock (click here to see how important three minutes can be in a playoff game).

These are three minutes that Jets fans will never forget, but they don't know that yet. Right now, there's 7:54 left in the third quarter, but a three and out and the ensuing Pittsburgh drive that takes five more minutes (but thankfully still no points) takes us into the fourth quarter.

The ensuing Jets drive takes too long. It just does. I'm not sure whether to blame the coaching staff or the Jets' young QB for this, but in this situation an eight minute, 17 play long drive featuring seven runs is unacceptable. It ends in a Pittsburgh goal line stand, so the Jets score no points, but even if they'd scored a touchdown it still would've been unacceptable. I've been giving this coaching staff a lot of credit throughout the course of this piece, but this is a bad one at a bad time right here.

Thankfully for them, a botched Pittsburgh snap and the safety that results save their bacon, and ensure that nobody remembers the prior drive which took way too long. After the Jets come out with a 22 yard toss from Sanchez to Cotchery to get the Jets into Steeler territory within one play, they still take four agonizing minutes just to score from the 36. In the first quarter this is a tremendous benefit. In the fourth it's nearly suicide. The Jets do score to make the score 24-19, but take the clock all the way to 3:09 to do it.

Their WP is all the way back up to 12 percent, but due to the Jets' offensive series taking way too long throughout the fourth quarter, the Steelers need just two first downs to sink the Jets' hopes, and this is exactly what happens. The Steelers take it 24-19 and go to the Super Bowl, and the Jets have only themselves to blame.

This game was on the table for New York. It really was. There's four associated what ifs that could result in them winning this game. The first is what if they don't take that roughing the kicker penalty in the third quarter. There went three minutes up in smoke. The second is if they could have scored instead of being stopped on the one in their arduous eight minute fourth quarter drive. They could've been down one score with eight minutes left instead of three. The third is if they were going to be stopped, could they have been stopped faster? Maybe in six minutes instead of eight. If we assume that botched snap was fated to happen, then the Jets would've gotten the ball at the nine and a half minute mark down 12 instead of the seven and a half minute mark. The fourth is could they have taken less than four minutes to get from the 36 yard line to the end zone? Say for instance that just two receivers more step out of bounds, and the Jets save (roughly) one minute and ten seconds. That'd give the defence one more first down to play with on the ensuing Pittsburgh drive to kill the clock.

All of these outcomes would've resulted in Mark Sanchez having the ball down one score with a chance to go win the game. He could've done it too. We've seen it against the likes of Detroit, Denver, Cleveland, Houston, Indianapolis, and an extremely clutch drive in the fourth that wasn't game winning against New England last week. He was up to this, but none of the above outcomes did happen.

Everything just took so long, and it sunk the New York Jets.

So, now that the season is truly over, I have to answer the question: fluke or contender?

It pains me to say this, especially after the glowing praise that I gave the 2009 squad, but I think these 2010 Jets are a fluke.

I know. It sucks to say as much as it sucks to hear, but let me explain. In my personal opinion, while these Jets were great at what they did, it was never sustainable in the way that the 2009 team's success was. Most of the blame for this falls on the duo of Mark Sanchez and the defence.

Beginning with Sanchez, most of the Jets' offensive improvement in 2010 came from Mark cutting his turnovers by more than half. It's great that he did this, but the thing is that he did it without actually becoming any more accurate. His -5.5 CPOE in 2009 not improving at all (-5.4 CPOE in 2010) means that I don't think Mark made any real improvement in the accuracy department, and that his lack of turnovers over the course of the season were more luck than anything. These things can happen in the NFL because the season is so short, and I think it did here. I take as evidence that Mark's turnover rate went back up in the following years despite his accuracy improving somewhat (-3.8 CPOE in 2011).

If you were to play this season 100 times with the same Mark Sanchez, I suspect the version we got was one of his best possible ones.

Piggybacking on this, while I just used the game winning drives as a compliment, I'm now going to use them as an insult. The Jets required game winning drives to beat 6-10 Detroit, 6-10 Houston, 5-11 Cleveland, and 4-12 Denver through the course of the year. Frankly, if you have to rely on game winning drives to defeat teams of that calibre, your team isn't very good.

That Mark Sanchez of all people was able to rise to all of these occasions astounds me, but he did, and as such a team with 8.88 expected wins ended up with 11 real ones. This is not sustainable at all.

There is that one blowout win in week two over one of the best teams of the decade (the 2010 Patriots) that gives me pause on all of this, but I don't think one game on the schedule is quite enough to get these Jets out of fluke territory. If you squint really hard, you can find six games on the 2010 Patriots' schedule (including playoffs) that they feasibly could've lost, of which they lost three. That's what a contender looks like.

These Jets are not that. In addition to the six games they did lose, they have six more that feasibly could have been losses that they won.

In contrast, the 2009 team had just eight games that were feasible losses, of which they lost seven (there's also one loss against Buffalo so outlandish I refuse to call it feasible. I detail it in the 2009 piece if you're interested). That's why they're a contender and the 2010 team isn't. 12 games (out of only 19) that are close enough to be a feasible loss is not the making of a contender, no matter how much I want to scream that they're the greatest team of all time.

I love these Jets a lot. I love them just as much as you do. Trust me, but even back then we should've realized this was never going to happen again.

And it didn't. The Jets haven't been back to the playoffs since 2010. Things are looking up with the addition of Aaron Rodgers, but they've looked up before with other additions. I'm not convinced. My personal bit of conjecture is that these Jets used up all of their favour with the football Gods getting that one victory over the Patriots, but that's just my theory.

These Jets may have been a total fluke, but my goodness were they entertaining to watch. To this day I still think back to these days while wondering if the Jets ever will make the playoffs again.

Surely they will, but while we wait, spare a thought for this squad that gave us so much to cheer for.