Stop Blaming Rex Grossman

Bears fans love to blame Rex Grossman for their loss in 2006. I don't think this is fair. Let me talk to you about 2006 Rex Grossman.

In my previous piece about Daunte Culpepper, we saw the story of a man trying as hard as anybody has ever had to try to drag a very bad team to the promised land. Despite him having one of the best seasons of the new millennium, the Vikings were so bad they just couldn't be carried any further. This got me curious. How good could Daunte Culpepper have been with a great team behind him?

This got me thinking of the 2006 Chicago Bears. Fans in Chicago have loved to muse about what may have happened if they'd had a QB of the calibre of Daunte Culpepper, but as it stands, they won 13 games with first year starter Rex Grossman.

I once heard a great line somewhere in a QB conversation. It goes like this: "People who believe the QB position is all about winning are doomed to spend an eternity watching Rex Grossman." This joke implies a lot. It references a very bad QB, but yet one not quite bad enough to mess up Chicago's season. This is the mythical 'just good enough' quarterback that everybody claims to need yet complain vociferously about when they have.

I'm looking at you Denver fans.

Here's the thing. Upon closer inspection, I don't think Rex deserves all this slander. He has had his name dragged through the mud a lot over the ensuing 17 years since this 2006 season, and for what? Is it because he lost the Super Bowl? Lots of great players have done that. He threw more touchdowns than interceptions, which is something even some Super Bowl winners can't say.

So where does all this hate come from?

I cannot believe I’m saying this, but I am about to do a deep dive in order to defend 2006 Rex Grossman.

Rex was a 2003 first round pick of the Chicago Bears, but coming into 2006 they've gotten nothing out of him. Due to a cocktail of injuries including a broken finger in 2003, torn knee ligaments in 2004 (which would forever steal his athleticism), and a broken ankle in 2005, he has started a total of eight games coming into his fourth NFL season.

This is the first thing people love to forget about 2006 Rex Grossman. It's his first year as an NFL starter. Give the man a break.

In the meantime, Chicago has had to use players like Kordell Stewart, Craig Krenzel, Chad Hutchinson, and Kyle Orton waiting for Rex to get back healthy. Altogether, Chicago has had the worst QB play in the league over this stretch, and it's all because their coveted first round pick cannot get onto the field for more than three games in a season.

The Bears haven't had a good quarterback since 1995 Erik Kramer, and the fans are fed up with it. This isn't Rex's fault of course. Nobody gets injured on purpose, but the life of a QB is to take the fall for things that aren't your fault. Rex is no exception. When he struggles in his two preseason outings, he's booed by his own fans.

This undeserved slander is the start of a long trend for Rex, and we're not even into the regular season yet. No worry though, Rex is going to shut everybody up.

If you'd like a hint that we're in another era in Bears football, here it is. Coming into Green Bay for week one, the Bears have won in Lambeau two of the last three seasons. They're four point road favourites. Could you imagine Chicago being road favourites in Green Bay at any point in the last 15 years? Wild chapters.

The Bears don't know what they have in Rex Grossman. They prove this by calling 37 rush plays for their rush offence that'd ranked a meagre 20th in 2005 against a Green Bay rush defence that'd been top ten in 2005. The result is what you'd expect. 37 wasted plays. 37 plays that generate -0.25 EPA/Play. Despite this, Rex has an amazing game. He completes 18 of his 25 true passing attempts (which exclude spikes and throwaways, as always), and throws for a touchdown. In all, he generates 0.45 EPA/Play this game as the Bears wipe the floor with the Packers 26-0.

Not a bad start, but there surely can't be many more great games like this right?

How about a game that ranks in the 99th percentile of all QB performances of all time?

I must be kidding.

I am not kidding.

20 of 27 for 289 yards, four touchdowns and 0.82 (!) EPA/Play before being taken out in the fourth quarter says I'm not kidding. This is greatness. I know it's against Detroit, but does anybody even remember that Rex had this in him? I can think of only one game the Bears have ever had in their long history that trumps this one (Josh McCown vs Dallas in 2013, read more here).

Rex Grossman isn't just off to a good start in the first two weeks. He's off to the best start in the NFL. However, there are big challenges on the horizon. The first comes in week three against the Minnesota Vikings, and their 3rd ranked defence.

This game in Minnesota is a struggle between the 2nd and third ranked defences in the NFL (both only behind Baltimore). There are positives though. In this game, the Bears finally understand not to waste thirty plays per game on their awful rush offence, and instead let Rex drop back 44 times. This is good.

What’s bad is that Rex is struggling. He's struggling badly. The Bears can only muster three points and are down 6-3 at the half. Something has to change, and it does. On the first two drives of the second half, he gets the Bears into the red zone, but they have to settle for three both times.

Now up 9-6, the Bears have the ball again to start the fourth. This is a great chance to put the Vikings away. From what we've seen so far, there is no chance this Vikings offence can come back from even six points down, so the game is on the table here for Rex.

On first down, he drops back into his own end zone. He rolls right, and he sees nothing, so he throws the ball away. At least he tries to, but he doesn't get the ball all the way out of danger. It's intercepted and ran into the end zone, and in a flash the Bears are down 13-9.

This was a brutal interception. One of those ones that shouldn't have been thrown by an NFL level quarterback. In the aftermath of the game, Rex himself admitted to "throwing the ball blindly." This is the type of interception that has the potential to mess with confidence toward Rex from fans, teammates, and himself. If you're an NFL fan, you know what I'm talking about.

This gets worse as on the first two plays of the next possession, Rex throws two incompletions in a row. Now facing down third and long, and all of a sudden facing a win probability of only 38 percent, Rex has all the potential to make another crushing mistake. This good start Rex has going has the potential to implode right here. That would fit with the ‘Rex Grossman sucks’ narrative, but does it happen?

Not at all.

On third and ten, Rex completes a 14 yard pass to keep the drive going. It would end in a field goal and a one point deficit. After the defence forces a fumble in Minnesota territory, Rex takes five plays to take advantage of the short field and get into the end zone to give the Bears a 19-16 lead that they wouldn't surrender.

Disaster has been averted, and the Bears are 3-0.

This performance meant something to Bears fans. When was the last time they had a QB that was able to actually rebound from a mistake? Normally, Bears QBs of this era compound mistakes until they've totally taken their team out of the game. Rex didn't.

It's a good thing too, because next up on the schedule is the most important game of the Bears' season. In week four, the Bears play host to the also undefeated defending conference champions, Matt Hasselbeck and the Seattle Seahawks.

Just like in Green Bay, the Bears took a great game on paper and made it a snoozer. Just for kicks, the Bears' rush offence finally got out of the quicksand and played great in their forty plays in this game, but it wasn't necessary. Rex completed 17 of his 30 true pass attempts for 232 yards, two touchdowns, and generated 0.39 EPA/Play. The Bears won this battle for NFC dominance 37-6.

Rex Grossman has just definitively outplayed Matt Hasselbeck. Matt Hasselbeck was the best QB in the NFC in 2005 (slim pickings, but still 4th best in the NFL). If Rex can do it to him, he can do it to anybody. It seems as if Chicago finally has their quarterback.

After another easy win over Buffalo, featuring another very good Rex performance, the Bears are 5-0. Four of those wins have come by 20 points or more. Buffalo was the third fourth quarter that Rex didn't even have to play in.

Make no mistake. Rex Grossman is the driving force behind this success. Although it's been looking up recently, Chicago's rush offence was awful in each of their first three games. Relying wholly on Rex Grossman's arm for their offence, Chicago scored 26, 34, and 19 points in those games. Aside from one bad moment in Minnesota (it was brutal. Don’t accuse me of understating how bad it is), Rex has been untouchable. He's the best QB in the league.

Hold up. Hold up. Hold up.

I know I have a smart audience here. I know you're not just going to read me call Rex Grossman the best QB in a league featuring (to name a few) Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers and just accept it without evidence.

It's the truth, guys. Through the first five weeks of the 2006 NFL season, the Chicago Bears have the best QB in the league. Rex Grossman ranks first in EPA/Play, with his 0.317 just barely beating out Peyton Manning. Rex Grossman also ranks fifth in completion percentage over expected (CPOE). His 4.5 nestles him nicely, right between Chad Pennington and Drew Brees.

Do you get it?

These are legends of the game Rex is brushing shoulders with. He had real talent, even though some people choose not to remember it that way. Do you know why people choose not to remember it that way? They do that because we've arrived.

We've arrived.

Do you know where we've arrived?

We have arrived at the most memorable game of Rex Grossman's 2006 season. We've arrived at (in my opinion) the reason that people refuse to take Rex seriously, despite everything I've told you leading up to this moment. We've arrived at the infamous week six Monday night matchup against the Arizona Cardinals.

The context of this famous moment is utterly forgotten. Dennis Green was the coach of a 1-4 Cardinals team forced to play the Chicago Bears, who were coming off of the stretch I just described to you. Four three touchdown (at least) wins out of five games. His pass defence that would go on to rank 22nd in 2006 was faced with having to defend against the best pass offence in the league, led by the number one QB in the league Rex Grossman. It's no wonder why they were two touchdown home underdogs.

The Cardinals would take this doomed situation and convert it into a 17-0 lead at the half and a 23-3 lead at the end of the third quarter. They did it largely due to Rex Grossman committing an ungodly six turnovers and contributing an unbelievable -32.5 total EPA to his team. If you throw an incomplete pass every time you touch the ball for a whole game, you will probably contribute more to your team than Rex Grossman did today.

So why is Dennis so angry?

Despite Arizona's 20 point third quarter lead, a strip sack in the end zone, a second fumble return touchdown, and a Devin Hester punt return all within the last 16 minutes (all of this around two fourth quarter turnovers from Rex) allow the Chicago Bears to get out of Phoenix with a 24-23 win in one of the most ridiculous things I’ve ever seen in an NFL game.

When Dennis Green says "the Bears are who we thought they were," he is articulating that he knew in his heart of hearts that Rex Grossman's start was a fluke. He knew that Rex couldn't carry the Chicago offence all year like he had been. He knew that if Arizona could shut down the Chicago rush attack (which they did), then Rex would crack.

Dennis is angry because despite all of that being true, he and his team still found a way to drop to 1-5.

That's all great, but what does it have to do with Rex Grossman?

This is an article about people looking back on Rex's 2006 in a less rosy fashion than they should. What Dennis Green has just done is given the world a quote that they will use to denigrate and discredit Rex Grossman for the rest of his life. People hang onto things like this.

Remember how Desmond Howard won a Heisman trophy (over much more deserving candidates) because he did a cool pose in the end zone? This is the same for Rex, but in reverse. No matter how much data I throw at people about Rex's elite start, about everything that is to come that tries to dispute the dominant narrative, people will always remember that the Bears are who Dennis Green thought they were.

Make no mistake. This is possibly the worst quarterbacked game since the play tracking era began in 1999. I can say with certainty that no game in 2022 or 2021 by any player even approached -32.5 EPA, but it's still only one game. Don't let it occupy too much of your headspace.

As if to show how little they cared about the debacle in Arizona, the Bears would respond in their very next game with a 31 point win over San Francisco at home. Rex wouldn't commit any turnovers, and he'd generate 0.53 EPA/Play before being taken out for the fourth quarter for the fourth time this year. It seemed like bad Rex was just a blip.

It wasn't.

In week nine at home against the Miami Dolphins and their sixth ranked defence, Rex would implode again. He would commit four turnovers (as well as two on downs) and contribute another -23.5 EPA to lose Chicago's undefeated record to a quite bad Miami team in brutal 31-13 fashion.

Wow. What happened to this guy?

Through the first five weeks, Rex Grossman was the best QB in the NFL. Over the last three, he's had two of the worst QB performances in history, but with another elite game sandwiched in the middle. I don't know what Chicago fans were thinking in 2006, but you do have to think they were both scared and excited.

Chicago QBs (and really any QB with such a consistently great defence) have a reputation for playing not to lose, as they say. What this is supposed to actually mean I've never been able to figure out, but what I can say with confidence is that it is the opposite of Rex Grossman. He has the perfect mindset to play this position.

Rex is going to keep trying, no matter how badly it goes.

As we've seen, it goes extremely badly sometimes. More badly than any QB has ever gone before, but we've also seen Rex not even have to play the fourth quarter four times already. We're only eight games into the season, and Chicago has won by 20+ points five times.

In the modern NFL, this playstyle is dead. It just is. Ever since Jameis Winston played with such a reckless style and was exiled for it, there are no Rex Grossman style QBs left anymore. That's both a good and a bad thing, since there are no more implosions of Rex’s magnitude in the modern game. However, it's also all but killed the 20 point win.

To play the conservative modern style, there just isn't room for such high flying offences any longer. Patrick Mahomes killed the league in 2022 with an average depth of target (aDoT) of 7.4 yards. That's deep into game manager territory (come at me for calling Mahomes a game manager. I'm not apologising). Rex Grossman is rocking an aDoT of 9.6 so far, good for sixth in the league. Nobody can ever convince me this man is playing conservatively, and he deserves credit for that.

After back to back wins in New York over both the Giants and the Jets, the Bears are 9-1. Their reward for this is a scheduled loss.

Do NFL fans understand the concept of a scheduled loss? It's a given in the NBA and NHL that when you play back to back road games, if they're both against good teams, that you're essentially guaranteed to lose the second game. When the league schedules a back to back like this, it's called a scheduled loss.

As a Raptors fan, I remember a famous one being when the Houston Rockets had a back to back in Milwaukee and then in Toronto during their famous winning streak in the James Harden era that was getting close to breaking the all-time NBA record. Of course the second game, against Toronto, ended their winning streak and we had to endure a few days of chatter over whether scheduled losses ending these long (potentially record breaking) winning streaks is good for the game.

Anyway, back in the NFL, they've essentially abolished the concept of teams playing three road games in a row. They do this to avoid scheduled losses. An NFL team playing their third road game in a row has an extremely low chance to win the game, regardless of the quality of the teams involved.

I bring all this up because the concept hasn't yet been abolished in 2006. As a result, the Bears get to stay in the Northeast for a third week in a row for another road game. This time, they get the New England Patriots.

There's an odd double standard in football. For every position except QBs and kickers it's all about making up for your mistakes, but if you are a QB or a kicker, then suddenly all mistakes are unacceptable. This is showcased in this week 12 game between the Bears and the Patriots. Rex Grossman again commits four turnovers, but unlike Arizona, and unlike Miami, this time he makes up for his mistakes.

Despite four turnovers, Rex ends up generating a flat 0 EPA/Play this game, which is about the best you can hope for if you have to commit four turnovers (click here to read about how great a QB can be while generating 0 EPA/Play). Rex repeatedly drove the Bears into Patriots territory all night long, and allowed the Bears to run more plays than the Patriots (74 to 64) despite the turnovers.

While he did throw an interception to end the game as a 17-13 loss, Rex gave the Bears a chance to win this game. Recall this game was designed to be a Bears loss from before the season even started, and I think this was actually a fairly good performance. As proof, here is a list of QBs who had performances as bad or worse than Rex Grossman against this 2006 Patriots defence.

Are you ready? There's some big names here.

David Garrard, Carson Palmer, Vince Young, Chad Pennington twice, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers.

Stop blaming Rex Grossman.

Now 9-2, but with their closest NFC rivals at 7-4, the pressure was more or less off the Bears at this point. They could just coast until the first seed was theirs. Ironically, this is the exact same position the Bears found themselves in last year. After a 9-3 start, the Bears coasted to an 11-5 record and a first round bye before being knocked out in their home playoff game. That would not do this year.

After another atrocious performance (Rex, I'm trying to defend you, could we stop with the -20 EPA stuff?) in what was nevertheless an easy win over Minnesota, it was time to go to St Louis.

The Rams are 5-7, and the Bears are 10-2, but the Bears are only six point road favourites. This is because of two things. The first is the QB matchup. I love Rex Grossman, but even I won't try to claim he's better than Marc Bulger, who's been one of the best in the league in 2006. The second is that the Rams are playing for their playoff lives. The Bears are playing for nearly nothing.

That shows once the game starts. For the first time all season, the Bears' defence is not there for Rex to rely on. They allow three scoring drives in the second quarter alone, although luckily one of them ends in a missed field goal, so the Bears go into the half with a 14-13 lead.

This is not exactly season defining. Again, the Bears have already locked up everything you can lock up in the regular season, but it is eerily reminiscent of a week 14 loss last year that began the Bears' spiral into a one and done playoff appearance. It doesn't seem like their defence can stop Marc Bulger. How will Rex respond?

Don't ever tell me Rex Grossman wasn't a good NFL QB.

He responds with three touchdowns and a missed field goal in Chicago's four second half possessions to put his foot on the Rams' throats and end their playoff hopes with a 42-27 Bears win. Rex completed 13 of his 23 true pass attempts for 200 yards and two touchdowns, and generated 0.61 EPA/Play this game. I know he had a really rough stretch in the middle of the season, but Rex is still here. He's still capable of leading the Bears to these dominant blowout wins.

In week 15 against Tampa, Rex is forced to step up again as this elite Chicago defence somehow gives up 0.23 EPA/Play and 31 points to a Buccaneer offence led by Tim Rattay. No problem, he does it again. He throws for his only 300 yard game (a bit of a shallow stat, think of all those fourth quarters he didn't play) all year in defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34-31 in overtime.

These Bears are trying to lay down again, just like they did in 2005. This time, they have a QB who won't let them.

After a come from behind fourth quarter win in Detroit and a loss in an unimportant final game to the Packers, the Bears' 2006 regular season is over. They've gone 13-3. Three wins better than anybody else in the NFC. Their first year starter has done enough to convince Bears fans that as long as bad Rex doesn't show up again (it's only been five weeks since his last appearance against Minnesota), they have a real chance at the Super Bowl.

Their first hurdle on the way to the Super Bowl is the Seattle Seahawks at home again. Remember the last time these teams played, where Rex made Matt Hasselbeck look like Davis Mills as the Bears won by 31 points. This is bound to be an easy win for the Bears right?

Not quite.

The Bears come into this game as only four point favourites at home. Why this is I cannot quite understand. Maybe it has to do with the fear bad Rex may show up. Maybe there's some residual belief that the Seahawks (who were so elite last year) are better than their 9-7 regular season record. Whatever the reason, the Bears are getting no respect for their great 13-3 season. They'll have to earn it against the defending NFC champions.

Rex gets off to a hot start in this one. Two of the Bears' first three drives end in touchdowns. One is a 68 yard touchdown pass from Rex to Bernard Berrian. However, partly due to a Rex fumble, the Bears are only able to get a 14-14 tie out of this great start. After some back and forth, the Bears score a touchdown in the two minute drill (something Rex hasn't been very good at this year) to go into the half with a 21-14 lead.

After a Seattle field goal to start the second half, and a Bears drive killed by two devastating sacks, Seattle scores another touchdown to see the Bears down 24-21. No worries. Rex has driven the Bears all the way to the Seattle eight yard line to start the fourth. This is at least a tie. In fact, Chicago is expected to score 5.3 points from this position.

They get none.

Rex throws an interception on the five yard line to bail the Seahawks out of trouble. When the defence immediately forces another turnover, Rex turns first and ten from the 31 into an unbelievable punt from the Seattle 36 with two incomplete passes and a delay of game penalty on the field goal operation. This second one is not Rex's fault, but still. Two trips to the Seattle 30, and no points. That's the kind of thing that ends seasons.

It isn't going to end this one though.

After a Seattle punt that sees a Devin Hester touchdown nullified by a return penalty, Rex drives the Bears all the way to the 23 without seeing so much as a third and long to kick the game tying field goal. After yet another stop, the Bears get a golden chance to win this game with two minutes left, but can only manage three plays and a punt. This game is going to overtime.

After Seattle wins the coin toss, hearts are in mouths in Chicago, but there's no danger. Seattle can get as far as their own 48 before punting to the Bears, and it's academic from here. Overtime ends on one 30 yard pass from Rex as the Bears kick the field goal that wins this game 27-24, and sends Chicago to the NFC championship.

This is a game where the stats will absolutely lie to you if you let them. It reminds me of Lamar Jackson in his 2019 playoff game against the Titans. The data tells me that Rex generated negative EPA/Play this game, but the Bears were in Seahawks territory all night. I know there was the two killer turnovers. I also know he went deep in Seattle territory and came out with no points twice in a row in the fourth quarter, but he bounced back to lead the Bears on the game tying field goal drive, and then on the game winning field goal drive. That's what I want my QB to do in the playoffs.

Now that his first playoff win is behind him, the sky is the limit for our boy Rex. He better be up for the challenge too, because the Bears' opponents in the NFC championship game are the New Orleans Saints, led by their offseason acquisition Drew Brees.

After a first quarter of nothing but the teams trading three and outs, the Saints finally crack. They fumble the ball and give it to Chicago at the New Orleans 36. From here, Rex only has to complete one pass to get the ball to the Saints' one yard line. Here, the Bears hit the wall. Rex throws two incomplete passes, and the Bears only get three. After another immediate Saints turnover, the Bears only let Rex throw once on the ensuing Bears possession, and they settle for three again.

After yet another quick Saints punt, the Bears again go straight into their territory, mostly thanks to a 30 yard Rex pass, but yet again have to settle for three inside the Saints' ten yard line. The Bears now have a 9-0 lead, but I wouldn't recommend continuing to test this with Drew Brees on the other side. Thankfully for the Bears, they do score a touchdown on their next possession, without Rex having to throw, and they go into half with a 16-7 lead.

Things look bad for Chicago coming out for the second half. They can do nothing but go three and out for all of the third quarter. All of this while Drew Brees is getting more and more looks at the Bears defence. Luckily for Rex, it holds for long enough for him to finally get his game going. Chicago scores a touchdown on a great Rex drive to begin the fourth quarter to take a 24-14 lead, and it's all over from here. Rex only has to throw twice more in the rest of this game as the Saints can't stop the Bears' rush attack. The Bears take this one 39-14.

This is another game where Rex's stats were not great. A 44 percent completion percentage really hurts. It's what's causing all of these three and outs, but still. Think of all the times I mentioned that the Bears were deep in Saints territory. You can't do that if your QB is as useless as people like to say Rex Grossman was. The Bears rush offence generated 0.17 EPA/Play this game. That can't happen unless the defence respects the threat of the pass.

The New Orleans Saints respected Rex Grossman. Why can't you?

I can't believe we've made it this far. We've made it through all the trials and the tribulations. All the double digit wins. All the fourth quarters Rex didn't have to play. One of the best games in history against Detroit. Being the best QB until week five, only to become who we thought he was and have two of the worst performances of all time against Arizona and Miami. Bouncing back from those bad games to carry the Bears through their late season defensive lapses. Winning two playoff games despite generating negative EPA/Play in each of them (although I think it's a bit misleading). All of it has led us here, to Super Bowl 41.

The Bears are coming into a game as underdogs for only the second time all year, but I think they have a real chance to win this game. The Bears aren't getting the best team in the league. Instead, they're getting the 12-4 Indianapolis Colts. The Colts do have the best QB in Peyton Manning, but the Bears just totally locked down the second best QB in the league last week. Who's to say they can't do it to the best? As long as bad Rex doesn't show up, the Bears offence should have a field day with the Colts' 31st ranked defence.

Did I lay the foreshadowing on a bit too thick?

In the Super Bowl, everything falls apart for the Bears. After a first quarter injury, the Bears have to go the whole game without Cedric Benson, leaving them with only one back. Chicago tries to run the air out of the ball the way they did against New Orleans, but the Colts just don't respect the pass in the same way the Saints did. Rex punishes them for this by completing 70 percent of his passes, something he's only done only three times all season up to this point, but at only 8.25 yards per completion, it's no use. The Bears lose the Super Bowl 29-17.

Bears fans love to think back on this Super Bowl and dream that they could've won had they had competent QB play.

I have news for them. The Bears didn't lose this game because they had Rex Grossman at QB.

I know. I hear you screaming that he had three turnovers in this game. Only two of them were of any importance, and one of them was a botched snap as a result of this game being played in a rainstorm. Peyton Manning had just done the same thing. I refuse to blame Rex for that. You can. I won't begrudge you for it, but I'm not going to. We're left with one true turnover, and while his pick six in the fourth quarter was back breaking, it isn't why you lost this game.

The Bears lost this game because they allowed the Colts 41 rushing attempts and almost 40 minutes of possession time. The Colts ran 81 plays in this game, compared to the Bears' 50. There is your answer. There are only two quarterbacks in the 21st century that I've known to regularly be able to overcome play count deficits that big, so unless the Bears had Daunte Culpepper or Aaron Rodgers on their side, they weren't going to win this game. Both were hardly even in the league at the time (Daunte was battling knee injuries, Aaron was rotting on the bench in Green Bay), so I guess we're out of luck aren't we?

Stop blaming Rex Grossman.

So here we are. I've stated my case in full to all the casual football fans out there. I have just one more thing left to do. I've got to address that big old elephant in the corner.

Why have I taken 30000 characters to defend a quarterback that finished the 2006 season with -0.019 EPA/Play (26th), -3.8 CPOE (31st), and 5.21 ANY/A (20th)? Why would I take the time out of my day to defend a QB this bad?

It came to my attention in the research for this piece that Rex Grossman had been voted the very worst QB to ever make it as far as the Super Bowl. I allowed it to personally offend me far more than it should have, because it's wrong. It's not wrong by a little bit either. The instant I read that sentence I could think of two QBs that were worse (2000 Trent Dilfer, 2015 Peyton Manning), and with a few seconds of thought I found another (2007 Eli Manning). Upon further analysis, I found two that are in the same ballpark with Rex (2003 Jake Delhomme, 2008 Ben Roethlisberger). If you allow for adjustments for a higher offensive environment, 2012 Joe Flacco joins this conversation too. All of this just since the play tracking era started.

I will say this definitively, and with force. 2006 Rex Grossman is not the worst QB to make the Super Bowl. He's not even close.

I began to wonder why this was. Why do people think 2006 Rex Grossman is the worst QB ever to make a Super Bowl? I came to a simple answer. I have to use the U word. The same one every writer is so scared to use.

I think Rex Grossman is underrated.

I feel no need to rehash why. I already stated why over the course of the piece. People misremember Rex Grossman for two reasons. The first is that Dennis Green interview (people hang onto big moments like this). The second is 'bad Rex.' 2006 Rex Grossman has three of the worst QB performances of all time on his resume.

That's the truth. I can't change it, but I can ignore it. If you just pretend that Rex Grossman never played against Arizona, or against Miami, or in the second Minnesota game, then you come to the result that Rex Grossman generated 0.161 EPA/Play, on a -0.2 CPOE if you exclude bad Rex, numbers roughly comparable to 2022 Dak Prescott.

That's it. That's the big one.

When it comes down to it, Rex had a negative contribution in only six of his team's 16 regular season games. That's the same as 2008 Ben Roethlisberger. That's the thing with Rex Grossman. Very rarely did he play good. He played great or bad or like the worst QB in NFL history. Those are the only three options.

If you're a fan like me who loves watching big plays, Rex Grossman should be one of your favourite quarterbacks. Completion percentage be damned, he was going to go for it. 2006 Rex Grossman ranks in the bottom five percent of all seasons in expected completion percentage since the stat began being tracked in 2006, meaning his low completion percentages aren't as bad as they seem.

One of the last true gunslingers before the league phased out that style of play, Rex Grossman's star died quickly. In seven games for the 2007 Bears, Rex would generate positive EPA only once. Bad Rex was gone, but so was great Rex, and he would be relegated to backup duty. After one more okay season as a starter for Washington in 2011 (one that saves his 2006 from being one of the biggest one offs in NFL history), Rex Grossman would never play another game in the NFL.

I wonder what Rex Grossman is thinking right now. He has to know how good he was in 2006. He and I now make two Rex Grossman believers out there in the world, but maybe with this article I've made a few more. Fingers crossed.

Above all everybody, please stop blaming Rex Grossman.